I just signed up but I have been following this thread for a looong time, and have been a member of the PF for 6 months.
Hope noone minds me joining the discussions here
Thanks to everyone that posts here on a regular basis. You guys are great
Here's a trade I took this morning
EUR/USD
4 HOUR
SHORT
PIN, RN, TRENDLINE..
Very nice Jon and welcome.
No one will very mind you joining the discussion.
Classic J16 setup, with a nice amount of supporting confluences.
Its these types of setups that work out as expected yet some will take a loss on it and wonder why. The setup hit its target, the previous bar low. Will it continue lower? Who knows. But we did know where it was likely to go, once it broke. Looks like its testing the 1.2600.
I'll take these all day long.
Jim
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Hello jarroo, this is one of my blind spots yet. I surely can tell a very strong from a very weak move. But identifying the ones in between is a real problem for me. The downmove preceding the 1st PB on your GBPJPY daily chart for example: It does not look so strong to me. At least compared to the one before with the big bearish bar (or do you count that in?). So just by its look it would have been a B or an A trade for me.
Could you help me with that? What makes a move a strong or a weak move?
Thank you!
Hans
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
The bar will be bigger than most of the others preceding it. An even stronger sign is if a bar blasts through levels that 'should' have held better. Like a major PPZ. A great signal is when a bar breaks the immediate trend line of the trend preceding it easily.
...or a strong retracement within the bar after an exhaustion move. Sush as a great pinbar that is larger than the bars preceding it. ...and closes back close to it's opening. It went a long way...But iut returned all that distance too.
I like that one bundy . .Price cutting through strong PPZ levels or BRNs like butter. That's a good sign that a strong move is going on. lol
"do you count that in?" Absolutley. That didn't happen months ago it happen last week. So yes count that sucker in. Then that 1500 pip monster retraced to a strong Weekly PPZ level at a BRN (140.) that it just cut through then continued down. We see these type of retracements all the time with big moves. A better relatively small PB would be at the ret level at the 140 PPZ with that strong move or with the trend.
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I'm learning and struggling with PPZ myself. On some messy charts lines make it nearly impossible for me to spot those price flips. So I turned to drawing boxes/zones instead. Maybe this could help you too. I depict my approach in the attached animated charts. I deliberately chose a pair I had a hard time dealing with and that has not such a clear trend.
Some of the lines I drew may be redundant since they are located near BRN.
Another important thing I think is what Mike recently told us about space and traffic. If I combine...
Freaking awsome Hans!! Great post!
1st post material for sure.
How the heck do you do that flashing chart thing? Cool as hell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
I did it with ImageReady. But I guess there are good free GIF animation tools out there.
Cool.
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Notice the bottom area where that original 61.8% and PPZ confluence area is.
Pretend this is a daily chart. ...there's a bar that was nearly a DBLHC or Outside bar off of it. IF it WAS a daily you made great mula up to that trend line ...or higher.
Fogot.... those downward pressure areas are around another 61.8 fib (backwards as 38.2 on this chart LOL)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Part 4.
Nice bounce off of 50% and that trend line.
It's at this point I am totally happy to wear my half R% loss. Since I got the analysis right. That bounce is enough that any push passed it is just bad luck , it's just one of those trades that doesn't make my target.
When we hit the 61.8% low again I'm setting to Break Even. If it returns to the B.E. I couldn't give a toss by then. It 's got a better chance of failing if it does so. I move on.
Great posts bundy . . I am still learning from you all the time.
Even on stuff you had already shown me. Meaning, I will go back in time to earlier posts you have shown me and others and see them with much clearer eyes.
Thanks mate.
Jim
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For some reason this seemed really hard in the sense that I instinctively wanted to add more and more lines and , had to battle with myself to stop drawing them. I must have drawn the pzz 30 times then trashed the chart.
Funnily enough, I feel there are way too many lines yet at the same time, I still think I need another couple. Weird.
EDIT: Here is GBP/USD again, it will probably now not look the same as the last chart.
This I shall investigate.
PS: Could not upload GU H4 as the file limit is hit....
Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Well, I'm still experimenting. But it's easier for me to just spot the most important ones on the monthly and then move down to the weekly and daily. This way I don't have to worry too much about missing some minor PPZ. If they are of greater significance I will spot them on the next lower TF anyway.
Hans
Your getting better Pinbar. Remember we're just looking at the points or areas were Support turns into Resisance and vice veras. Like Hans' posts starting with the Monthly, Weekly and then Daily. Then fine tune them around round numbers. Just the key big levels. We're looking for PA on the Daily and Weekly at these levels.
Gu:
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Hello Jarroo: on GBPUSD daily is there a valid pinbar (pinbar closed below the left eye)?
Do you mean on the Weekly?
It might be valid by proxy, the weekly low of 3 weeks ago, but no it's not technically correct in its structure. Also the size doesn't show much strength as a viable setup.
Edit: Thanks Mike.
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Yes, I am trying to reduce the lines or rather limit them to good target areas.
I feel the pastel colors help as they distract the eye less but stand out well enough to be PPZ.
I have just gone back over the NZD/USD chart and taken my time without looking at your chart, and low and behold slowly I am starting to see the price flips or at least where both S&R have come into play.
Interestingly enough, I seemed to find an extra PPZ (in blue) and would like to ask your thoughts on this one, as you seemed to ignore it.
Thanks...
Excellent Pb. I like the .7350 a lot more then the .7300 by what you have shown in your chart. Heavy Support turning into heavy Resistance. That level really stands out.
See . . .your getting it pal.
Check out the Euro Monthly, we at a strong level at the 1.2500
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jarroo, is this your favorite pin? I am waiting for scale in by break of H4 beob if it be closed as it is.
Mike would probably like that one too. Strong rejection up and then down through the strong 1.45 PPZ level. Hitting good Hourly and 4 hour targets (previous Lows). 4 hour is showing some consolidating of Price, protect yourself wisely.
Nice job.
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Yeah I took a BE on this one, as I almost always move my stop to BE once the FTA is reached,
Like you say we can take these all day long as we know the runners will come occasionally
Have a great weekend guys
I like your stlye. The runners will come. . . they always do.
Nice work . . . Jonnyisfound.
Jim
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It's really what we look for in a setup extraneo. PA off of (and away from) a strong PPZ level which is a BRN, 1.4500. The main concern is that its in a consolidation area, which means its in a lot of traffic. Very tradable but smart trade management required. If this was at swing high at the same location it would allow more room to run.
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I understand that these round number areas example 0.8, 0.85, 0.9 works many times in support and resistance levels, but how should i deal areas like 0.86, 0.87, etc.???
The regular round numbers I do take note of where they are especailly once a setup is triggered, (trade management).
But if they are confluencing with a strong PPZ level, I look at them as if they were a BRN confluencing with a strong PPZ level. If that makes sense.
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I understand that these round number areas example 0.8, 0.85, 0.9 works many times in support and resistance levels, but how should i deal areas like 0.86, 0.87, etc.???
Which is a stronger level, the .9000 or the .8850? In my book they are of equal strength, which is strong. PPZ levels are the key.
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I have a question, when we trade in 4 hour chart, do we still draw the PPZ using the 4 hr chart itself or we will just use the weekly and daily PPZ area?
For me . . if I trade on the 4 hour chart . . . the 4 hour PA will be off the Daily Weekly PPZ levels. And my trade managaement wiil be guided off the 4 hour PPZ levels, for S/L, targets, etc. Make sense?
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Hi,
I have been reading the thread for about 10 days. While I intend to read the full thread from beginning, I realized that new pages are being added very quickly on daily basis and as such I read about 40 pages including the latest entries, which I feel will keep me abreast of the latest while catching up the past.
I have been trading demo for six months and live for about 4 months primarily on Intraday basis. Used various methods / systems and still to find one that suits me / my personality. Suffered some serious failures last month which have...
Nice one novice. Maybe you can show the ones that didn't work out so well.
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actually i am looking at this eurusd. Although not at the highest point of swing high, but the 4 hour BEOB was off daily PPZ lvl. So let's see how the price goes....
More like in the middle. The 1.2500 and the trend is definitely going to be a frend on this one.
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We can consider this a BEOB even with 5 pips difference in the highs?
I thought I read that 2 pips is the max allowable difference in any PA.
I give allowances for PA structure by a few pips due to demo feeds and such. But its usually on the higher time frames (Daily and Weekly).
More importantly, if everything is lining for a high quality setup; Location, supporting confluences, big bars, etc., and the only thing is a few of pips in structure I'll take the setup.
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Hi Jarroo,
Thanks for the encouragement. The EUR/GBP was the 1st setup that I traded using the J16 setup rules.
Here is trade on EUR/CHF that I passed as I was not confident of the PA due to the PPZ which was too close to the possible entry.
I hope the gurus can comment on this trade and my decision.
Also pls cnfm that the MA's 150, 200 and 365 are EMA on close.
Cheers
Novice198
There are no gurus here . . just some people that have been doing this a little longer.
Its always a good decision to pass on a setup if your seeing things that don't add up. Like trading into a heavy traffic area. Would look better if the Daily PB was more bearsh in structure, meaning the Close was lower then the Open.
I didn't take this one but the 8 Hour did give a better PA setup. Notice that the next 8 hour bar reacted to the congested area and retraced back up into the setup. It then broke nicely and tested the break. A good confirmation that the setup is correct.
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Thanks for the detailed analysis, which brings up some questions/ clarifications:-
[list=1][*]The setup was good on H8 TF as PA retraced back and then broke through on the downside. correct. So in this case we should manage the trade on H8TF and should not switch to a lower TF for exits.[*]How do we get H8 or H2 charts on the MT4 platform as the default TF are H1 and H4? Any spl indicators for the conversion.[*]As you have attached the H1 TF charts, I assume that this TF is also being used for the Trade. How do you use these lower...
1. That's right. I always managed the trade on the time frame it was presented on. That goes for targets, stop loss, etc.
3 & 4. I should have noted this in my post. The Hourly was just to show the break (how hard it broke) and how Price was testing the break or respecting the break. I don't look for early entries on the lower time frame from a higher time frame setup. The signal or trigger is on the time frame that the setup was presented.
5. Not sure what your asking on this one.
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Not one I took, but a nice example of a breakout/pullback setup with PA
Too bad this pair is so choppy recently
Short would be taken on the break of the BEOB
What appears to be a BEOB at a swing low is really something different when we see the bigger picture. or what Mike would say " the story that's being told" . . . A wedge break out/ pullback with PA.
Nice work Jonnyisfound. I'm sure Mike would agree. ( although I haven't read far enough to see if Mike commented on this one. lol )
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yep this is an effective way to combine all the pieces James talks about, price bars+location, s/r(ppz), price patterns(breakout) and an understanding of where price should go. Nice little story :P
Its funny looking back at some of my real early trades and seeing the complete story of why some of them worked out.. . . "' Holy crap! that was a HUGE breakout pull back and I didn't even know it . . lol" I do now . .
Thanks Mike.
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I have been reading this thread since 3 weeks ( more than 8 hrs daily ) and it is definitely extremely valuable. I?d like to thank Jarroo especially, his clear and concise charts have turned my trading around 100%.
One of the " real eyeopeners " for me is the gradual understanding of the word confluence -
a) used in Jim`s sense of PPZ, PA bars/candles, Fibs, Space....etc., all of them lining up to qualify for a setup.
b) additionally as I see it in SeekingLight?s ( or raczek`s ) charts, the " progression " of price. What happens...
wow. ..you're welcome msmarple . . . what a very kind post.
There are many many people here who do a wonderful job at helping and showing the J16 way of trading and all of its many other variations. Many of who you mentioned.
It's a great thread with great people. And I am a product of this thread ( and the PF). I wasn't born knowing this stuff. lol
So by thanking me your actually thanking many other people on this thread.
Jim
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I am a newbie in this thread. I have a question about the free trade strategy.
When we moved our stop loss to BE, should we use a trailing stop or a fixed stop at our entry price?
The free trade strategy is not necessarily " a move to BE". Its a partial postional placement of trade that covers your risk where the worst outcome of your trade is a net zero loss.
I can show a chart if you like?
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Yes please, I would like to see an example.
Thanks for the reply.
Here's a trade that I actually took. The 4 hour PB on the Gbp/Usd on Monday.
First off, looking at the Daily . . Price appears to be in a consolidation period prior to the setup. Consoldation areas can be somewhat predictable once they are established. This one looked good.
On the 4 hour, a PB is presented at the top of this consolidation area and its also with the big moves down that we have been having. Price is rejected by the 1.4500 (BRN) which is a strong Monthly, Weekly and Daily PPZ level. The size of the PB is not huge but not bad in my book.
Next post I'll get to the free trade, targets, etc.
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Next post I'll get to the free trade, targets, etc.
My targets are in green. The 1st target, which was the previous bar low also a 4 hour PPZ level, would be where my free trade would take place.
I took the entry 1.4449 and my intitial stop loss was above the 1.4500 at 1.4520.
Once Price hit that 1st target area which for me was +33 pips, I took half the position off and place the 2nd half
-33 pips away from my entry. My target for the 2nd half was a the bottom of the consolidation area on the Daily.
My 2nd target was hit at the bottom on consolidation, this usuall happens because I underestimate my targets by 10-20 pips.
So with the free trade you can have predetermined targets or I could have let this one go until it was stopped out. And/or place my S/L behide my targets or green area. You can leave your stop loss at the free trade position or move it to where you would like to take profits. But the bottom line is that you . . .will . . . . not . . . have . . . .a . . . LOSS.
Jim
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One of the cons of the free trade is that it would have been nice to have a full position for 173 pips instead of just a half position. Meaning just place your S/L above the PB and set your target.
But what I like about it is that you can set the free trade and go to work and not wonder if I'm lossing money or not. You will get many zero net results which really depends on the quality of the setup.
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Nice one Jaroo!
One question, did you execute your plan the moment you place your stop sell in an EA? Or did you execute it only after your order is filled in which you then follow it like a hawk waiting for the moment to move SL?
What I am really asking is, in terms of trading with MT4, if there a robot you use to put your plan in place WHILE putting a stop sell order?
I would be interested to know if there is one because many times I don't want to stay up to follow the price movement (to manage it afterwards) after I have placed my pending orders....
I didn't use a EA. I manually executed the position(s). I don't know if a program exists to do that.
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I also used to do that a great deal.
I would convince myself price was going to break LONG, it would mess around, look like it was breaking long, then go short, I would see an incredible setup in the other direction, and just watch it sail in the yonder without me aboard.
I did that time after time and sometimes I would even be in the trade in other direction telling myself, it will come around. It never comes around, we have to. LoL
PS:
Thanks for the confirmation Jarroo.
Where did you get that name from?
It was kind of random too. The "J" is my first name, the "a" is my last name, the 'r' is my middle name, the "oo" was suppose to be adding zeros to my name. lol
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You can trade a great/strong BEB or BUB by itself from a great location as well.
...It's just about reading what price is doing. Don't have to be tied to definitions.
Personally , I'm just looking for a powerful sign of commitment in any move. I want a good sign that my choice of location is right and that the market is willing to give into that idea too. Or at the least isn't wanting to resist it too much.
You've been looking at my others charts . . I don't know how you did because I don't post them .
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lol I caught it, I'm already in a free trade. Let's see if it gets to target!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
out at B/E... volatile markets are volatile!
Yeah Dan was this a "free trade" or move to break even quick trade? Because a free trade after 30 pips you would be still in this one with a half postion. Sorry, I'm confused.
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Played this one also. Saw the IB but debated whether to take it until you guys mentioned it was a I16B (or more). Gave me more confidence to pull the trigger. Scored 145 pips. This site has really improved my trading. Thanks to all.
Dan is really on to something with qualifying the I4+B setup with an additional confluence around BRNs.
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Jarroo, there was no way you could still be in that after moving stop to B/E after 30 pips, it retraced down, even after going up to 131.92, then retraced all the way back down to 130.46.... the only way I would have survived this trade is if I happily watched a 145 pip retracement, watch the trade go into draw down and hung on for dear life! (or just practiced a much looser trade management style, which actually would have earned me money this month if I did use a loose style of getting stop to B/E)
How big was your buffer?
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here I have shown the I4B highlighted in the blue box. My entry was @ 130.84. Even if I had entered at 130.59 with almost no buffer at all, price still would have taken me out after the hard bounce off 131.94.... I was planning on taking full profit @ 132.60
even a 100 pip move stop to B/E would have been a fail in both the no buffer, and large buffer situations....
Yes, even a no buffer entry would have been tight. But I would have the 1st target at the blue line previous High, about 80 pips away.
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If you would have taken that trade, and managed it exactly as you show here, before the fact, I would bow down to you. I moved my stop to B/E, and was letting the rest run.
Jarroo, you know I love you, but this is a bit too hindsight for me to take serious
I do free trades all the time, friend. It's not that far fetched. The key is the right setup and I like your BRN I4+B. Its a great option than moving to just break even. Check your I4+B trades.
I'll post some trades before the fact to show you. Simple stuff.
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In all seriousness, a deep trailing stop effective immediately when the trade was placed to reduce risk, while price moved into my target I think is a better argument for management.
I don't know what this means?
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something I'm looking at... Let's say you set an initial S/L for a pin, or BUOB, and that initial stop is 150 pips.
Now you place a trailing stop of 150 pips on the trade, which activates immediately (where on MT4, the trailing stop isn't activated until the trade is that number of pips into profit, so you need an EA for this type of trailing stop I'm describing).
At the same time, you set a profit target. so your risk is reducing as price goes into profit, and simultaneously, the trade is closing in on your T/P price. If price retraces, you...
Ok . . I see.
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What does BRN stands for?
The RN might be Round Number, but what's the B for?
Thanks
Bun888
The "B" stands for "Big" or "Bold" round numbers (also known as a "VeryBig") like the 130.00, 1.5000, 1.4500. Regular RNs are 131.00, 1.4800 or 1.4200.
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If there is a 2 pips difference between the highs, could we still consider it as a DBHLC? The high on the first bar is 0.7324 and the high on the second bar is 0.7322.
I found this on the NZDUSD pair (monthly) chart attached.
Any comments or inputs are welcome.
Thanks.
I would consider it a DBHLC if it closes that way which I think it will. Its not at swing high like that PB a few bars over, but it has potential.
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Well have to see how it closes today. Would like it more if the swing low was deeper . . say at the .6500 ( that's for Mike). It sure is respecting the .6800 as shown on your Daily and 4 hour chart. We'll have to wait and see at week's end.
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Are you saying full profit take at 131.55? Is that what you mean?
Yes, at the 131.55(131.37) because its against the trend . .take profits at or before the 1st obvious target. You can see how it reacted at that level.
Or just let it ride and see what happens . .you got nothing to lose.
I made a mistake on my chart 130.55 should be 131.55. I'll correct it.
Edit : actually it should be 131.37 which is that Daily High on my chart. But my take profit would have been taken earlier then that . . more like 131.30 or 131.27. (geez i must need some sleep. lol)
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USDCHF 4Hr TF - I'm entry Short PA close below 1.15 short entry from this point with TP1 at 1.14
Would you please advise sir if this the valid sell signal
Cheer
Hi and welcome mrhb.
That's a nice size BEOB on the 4 hour Usd/Chf, engulfing many candles.
The valid signal for me would be an entry below the Low of the BEOB (1.1485), of say 5 to 8 pips.
Let's look at the setup a little closer. (Chart 1)
We have had a pretty strong uptrend going on on the Usd/Chf. So a big size PA setup would be what to look for to counter this strong move up. The size is not bad but its in a consolidation area not at a swing High on the 4 hour time frame.
I like the fact that the Low of the BEOB is below the 1.1500. A stronger bearish indication for me would be if the Close was below the 1.1500. And/or the Close is below the previous candles its engulfing.
Also, the traffic (in green) is heavy. Many bar Lows to contend with and
Price reacting to this traffic is not a surprise. Its not a setup I would take.
For example, a better setup I would take (Chart 2).
An 8 Hour BEOB on the same pair. Nice big size, at a swing high and no traffic. The signal would be the break of the Low of the BEOB with a buffer of 5-8 pips.
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Can you pls clarify the placement of SL and reasons for that.
Cheers
Novice198
I was showing Dan that taking a "free trade" was an optional trade management approach than just moving the whole position to break even after a +30 pip move. Nothing at all wrong with moving to B/E after a 30 pips move.
"Free trade" approach is taking half of your position off and into profit at the FTA (or sooner) and then move the SL of the other half that equal distance below(/above) from your entry. Your basically covering your risk while still being in the trade and giving your trade some space to move or breathe.
My chart example was showing (as bundy explained) that even if you entered with no buffer a 30 pip free trade would have been tight.
Dan's entry was 130.84, a 29 pip buffer from the break of the Daily I4+B. A 30 pip free trade would not have worked.
A standard 10 pip buffer (130.65) on the Daily I4+B would have also been really tight with a 30 pip move. But if you viewed the 5/24 Daily High as the FTA for the free trade target, which was 72 pips away, it could have easily worked and you would still be in this trade if you were looking for a long term potential ride.
(Even though this setup and targets were already established before this setup broke, I understand that this is a hindsight analysis.)
Jim
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Just looking at the Monthly we can see that it is almost a monthly DBHLC with only 1 day left of the trading month. Also, the eye of the weekly PB is almost 25 pips outside the close of the previous bar.
Possibly Jarroo only mentioned this W-PB as I think someone mentioned a short setup on a lower TF.
Many thanks.
For me, it is still a bit confusing as to if I am Bullish or Bearish looking at so many TF.
Possibly I am over complicating things and need to find a comfortable method of analyzing setups.
I will...
Hey Pb.
The left eye is the previous bar low of the PB, in gold at the check mark on my chart. I like using fib levels as a confluencing tool, meaning if a fib level does not line up with a PPZ level or S/R level or BRN they just don't carry as much weight or strength by themselves.
phpscott analysis is spot on about the PB itself and the better locations that a PA setup we would like to see take place. But I do like this setup and plan on trading it if it breaks. Tight managment required for me on this one.
Just keep at it Pb and your setup analysis will get better and better. Keep veiwing and studying James16's charts and videos. I still do all the time.
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With that aside, a very important day and I just wanted to give my acknowledgment to it publicly. My greatest thanks and respects to those who have given their lives for me.
Ditto Mike and Bemac.
Remembering those that " . . . gave the last full measure of devotion "
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The first circle on the eye encompasses the close and that is why I assumed the close was the eye. I know hte second one doesn't do that but the first one you see tends to stick in the mind.
Perhaps, there are others who also wrongly assumed the close is the eye.
Maybe this is a better picture
Edit: Maybe not, it looks too Fallic
No problem Pb. Its all part of the learning curve. . .I've been there too. Here's a better chart.
Yeah a bit to phallic. (left nut . . right nut.) lol
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I'm looking at the GBP/NZD Weekly PB from last week. This week has already tested just below it but was rejected.
Daily PB entries are 10 pips below the low, however, if you are to play a weekly PB then is there a rule of thumb for how far below to enter?
I'm currently thinking of something below the BRN 2.1200 but do I need a close of a particular candle for verification?
Here are my charts. I would appreciate some guidance.
Many thanks.
. . . rule of thumb for how far below to enter? Each trader is different . 10-20 pips above/below on the weekly is what I use.
You have to take note of what your trading into. Since this PB setup is not at a swing high and more so in an area of consoldation, the trafiic becomes a key player. And price went right where we thought it would, 1st bar high (or more importantly a Weekly PPZ level) and reacted. Not a big surprise there.
Price spiked to the FTA in green watching how it breaks this low, which is below the FTA, is what I would look for. (James16's "This is Critical")
(Notice I didn't look at the Daily)
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What do you think on Eur/Chf Daily pin off FIB 50% and PPZ 1.43 with the trend...
You Like?
Not a bad setup but not a great one either, not at a swing high in the middle of everything. It did break nice and hard which if it didn't do that I would have been out early.
Price looks to be testing the break could reach other green targets. Hard to say on a Holiday.
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discretion is still required. there have been some I passed on (which turned out to be a good thing that I didn't trade them)....
Also I have narrowed my tradeable pairs down to 7, and also changed my management method... makes my life a lot easier.
I think my variation of J16 is finally fitting my personality (although it's starting to stray a bit from what is in this thread in some ways).... took a damn long time.
What does the "+B" mean? I4B is it the same thing?
Its just to show that the Inside Bar is smaller in range more than just 4 previous bars. The Gbp/Jpy Daily IB was (I believe) an I17B. So the "4+" means that the range is smaller then "4 or more" previous bars.
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Here is the wkly and a few daily charts of the EUR/AUD that has caputured my curiousity
1st in a downtrend
wkly spike long with an inside bar
Daily I see to huge spike long bars with several days of rejection lower to the BRN 1.45
Sorry the Fibs didn't come out but the DBHLC(still hasn't closed) and a double pin smacks into BRN and opposing Fibs (50% and 61.8).
My bias is with the downtrend...wouldn't trade because to much thought on this....
Just thought I would share for discussion...trying to gain some insights
I understand your downtrend bias, but the BIG DBLHC on the Weekly could be trend changer. It sure is big enough. Some clear Bullish PA at the 1.4500 would peak my interest.
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I like these. Anybody else see this one? Not the best time of day but O lookie here! an I4B (or should I say an I5B)just finished printing as I was making my comments on the previous 4 hr bar. Weren't you all just talkin' bout those?
K.I.S.S.
I'm with you Kiss-man.
So only take the long signal not the short of the I4B, correct?
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Looking at COT and open interest also suggests sort of that everybody along with their mothers as well as second cousins, are already short. We all know what happens when everybody that wanted to sell have done so...
Then again my crystal ball isn't of the best brand.
Interesting take o990l6mh.
Any big divergences on the COT? Between the commericals and privates.
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Hi guys, new here, I've been reading up on price action from various places and started reading through this thread, nearly finished one the summary ... i was just wondering if someone could help me analyse a trade that i thought was a good setup but ended up being the opposite. So the chart below shows a nice pinbar with a long nose and an open and close within the previous bar range, it is also in 'space' and has bounced of old support/resistance. These are the good points. But im strugling to identify why this would have been a not so good trade....
Nothing went wrong with this PB setup. Price went right where we thought it would go, previous bar High/Lows, PPZ levels, BRNs, etc.
Many we're hesitant due to the fact it was trading into a BRN, 1.5000.
So this setup did what we "knew" it would do. A classic J16 successful setup.
Welcome btw Dan.
Jim
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I have been following this pair very closely.
Until this evening I was unsure whether the bearish trend was over.
Price has continued down for months but during this time has episodes where prices goes up for between two days up to a week.
Price has gone down stepwise.
Following the big bullish price spike in mid May price promptly came down.
Last week/this week there has been a run where there has been a slight uptrend. This is not unusual but considering the gyrations in the bullish spike, it is reasonable to imagine sentiment has changed....
Thanks six gun for your comments.
I'm not a fundy guy so this could have been written in Mandarin. I have heard of the PIIGS though. . .those crazy f'd up socialists. lol
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What a difference that different time zone can make Jarroo.
A little bit different, equal in my book.
I like the Eur/Gbp Daily PB too. I would like to see it hold and then break closer to london. If it does break now I'll wait and see where its at during the london session.
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You guys changed the name of this bar.
It used to be an IB4.
It was always I4B. lol
2006 Mike.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Internal bar I assume you mean inside bar.
Insidebar is any bar that has its highs and lows within the previous bar
An I4B, is an inside bar that is the smallest bar(range high to low) of the previous 3 bars, and is inside the previous bar. Here is a chart.
An I4B is an inside bar, but an inside bar isnt always an I4B
Hope this helps,
Mike
Oh ya those small bars are Interbank Sunday bars, those I dont count. And yes that I4B could really be more then just the last 4, but for learning purposes I didnt count them
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Hmmm, looks like we have the 61.8 & 50 fibo just above the 0.6900.
Normally, we would put a buy stop order 10 pips above the PB but on the weekly, I am lost.
I would be tempted to wait till the 0.6900is broken and watch if the 50 fibo holds as support? I can use the daily for reference or not?
"I would be tempted to wait till the 0.6900 is broken", very good PB.
FORGET the FIBs. Take them off your chart. Lets just look at where Price is heading into if it breaks. The .6900 is a strong Resistance/PPZ Level. The .6800 is a strong Support/PPZ level and will help us.
15 -20 pips is a good buffer on the Weekly. Just remember James16's "This is Critical:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken
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Bull Market: good news shows big run-ups, bad news shows relatively little run-downs.
Bear Market: good news shows very weak run-ups, bad news shows sharp run-downs.
I think the NU falls into the bear market zone, at the very best you can expect a mildly slow run-up (more of a sideways market), just as we saw from feb-april... I'd rather not get involved, but that's just me personally. If I see NZD start to sh!t the bed again, I'll try my best to catch it... As I have been watching AUD like a damn hawk lately, without even dreaming of trying...
Its a good demo PB much like the Daily Eur/Gbp PB. Much can be learned from trading and practising these setups. That's if they break.
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We are trading right into the compresses 150 & 365, are we not? Also, I imagine the it is best to wait for the LO?
Yes, so to speak. We are in the middle of a PPZone, the .6900 being the top and the .6800 bottom. The PB is giving us a hint to where Price is heading. Is it strong enough? Is it big enough to provide a move to the FTA, I like the .6970 green line. We shall see.
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I guess you already figured I was just watching these Daily charts and going, Fizzzz (*&($&^%@^%@ Pop%$E%@)(*$@ Woooooooooooooooo!
I understand PB. lol
The more you practise in real time the better you become. The better you become the more confidence you have. Continue pouring over James16's charts, Mike's charts, even failed charts of others. Look at as many pairs as you can. In the end, only you will be able to tell if a setup fits your style or not.
Just keep at it my friend . .you'll get there.
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I am getting more interested in the daily and how James does not seem to draw PPZ lines all over the place. This is giving me the idea that on longer TF, the PPZ will be in much closer proximity or at least bar highs and lows may be.
I also like the manner in which he is projecting possible targets of PA.
Yes, this is the way to go.
He's been doing it for a long time. He has been where we have been, probable worst then us. So how he goes about trading is a good thing to watch and learn from.
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Having a hard time here! I'm 27 and wondering what's my forex status when I hit 37. Not giving up. Not giving up. Not giving up.
Perseverance is a must in this business especailly in the beginning.
Patience is another must. Waiting for the best setup to trade. Then Practise . . Practise . . Practise .
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believe me I don't know anyone whos made it that didn't shed some tears along the way. Or at least think about quitting multiple times. The more I get beat up the harder I come back at something. Now the one thing you have to realize is that just b/c you put in the time doesn't mean you will automatically get it. You have to learn from your mistakes, and realize where your flaws are as a person that are translating into your trading as well. Poker was a big bonus for my outlook for me. But I am sure other things translate as well for people and...
Forget what I was going to post . . I'll just copy this one.
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I like these. Anybody else see this one? Not the best time of day but O lookie here! an I4B (or should I say an I5B)just finished printing as I was making my comments on the previous 4 hr bar. Weren't you all just talkin' bout those?
K.I.S.S.
What's that line from the movie Trading Places . . "Looking good KissFan." "Feeling good Jarroo". lol. Free trading now.
Nice Trade Roger.
I thought I saw Dale ealier. I'm sure he liked it as well.
Jim
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Long time no post - I've been in Egypt having a break (here's a picture of a camel)
Has anyone seen the daily pin on EURGBP today? My only immediate concern is that it's got RN .8400 not too far from my entry point but other than that I don't see any trouble until about ~0.8440
All comments welcome!
Its got potential but it is pretty small to counter the big swing down. .8400 is a concern Low of a year ago. Your target looks good, no traffic and a bit of divergence but there is no other really strong confluence to help this little guy. Like a strong PPZ level or BRN. Should be fun to watch or demo.
Nice camel.
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On the Daily? Now, I am have only set a weekly EP.
Thought you meant for me to do it all on the weekly.
If I am supposed to monitor it on H4, Jarroo is going to have to announce an official senior PARDON on the H4 or I shall be getting the boot in the rear end from many.
What? lol .. . .Oh you mean monitor how Price tests and respects targets, break, etc, right?
Then Yes check out the 4 Hour and even the Hourly.
Look how Price is respecting the Weekly PB break on the Hourly.
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On the Daily? Now, I am have only set a weekly EP.
Thought you meant for me to do it all on the weekly.
I can see now, that the daily IB would have been better as we can get to BE much quicker with that and possibly use the low as SL.
What a Dumbar, I am.
.
Good eye Pb, now your thinking. Shows how the higher time frame PA (Weekly bullish PB) can help you with a lower time frame setup (Daily IB). That's a type of confluence in my book.
I can't tell you everything. lol Not a dumbar at all buddy.
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Yes, I think the larger TF makes us think in a different manner than the lower TF. Possibly, once we can see these things consistently, I imagine it filters down to lower TF.
Possibly, I will cancel that order as we are at BRN and the 50 fibo is above our heads. If I had understood you correctly, I would already have been in profit with the SL at 0.6795 waiting for a possible break of the 6900 or a reversal signal.
Your thinking is great Pb. Keep the order on. let's see how it goes.
What BRN at 50% retracement?? The BRN is the .7000. The .6900 is just a RN.
Price may touch the .6900 and head down and test the .6800 and then go for the .7000. Who knows. Let's play it out.
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Hold those BOOTS people...Jarroo has decreed an official pardon on H4 & H1.
I think I see a little of your idea here.
No pardon granted, back to the Weekly and Daily.
If anything let's look at the Daily . . where Price closed on the Daily chart. The PB on the Weekly closing above the .6800 (weekly PPZ) would have gave a more bullish strength to the Weekly PB setup.
On the Daily bars, we can see that some bars that did close above the .6800. Notice how well the Daily IB acted. That Daily IB closing above the .6800 helped a lot.
Now a Daily bar closing above the .6900 looks good to continue to the .7000.
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I took full profit at the 38.2 ext of the break and now watching for some more PA long. (This was no genius at work. I was asleep when it hit my first target so I just got lucky for once). We might get something interesting with ADP this morning. It seems it has been a while since that report was a market mover.
K.I.S.S.
Nice job Kiss-man. I let my free trade play out for a net zero loss. Even though that PB formed which should have told me something . . lol.
Nailed that 1st target, 1.4720 area. I still think the 1.4800 has a chance, but as always, I'll let PA show me the way.
Jim
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Ok, Jarroo.....One thing that concerns me is the bar highs before the IB.
Considering they are within 3 pips of each other, I suppose that daily IB would not have been a trade to take?
3 pips on the Daily . .demo feed . .would not be a trade breaker for me.
The thing I was pointing out was this . .
The .6800 is a Support level/ PPZ level. The black check mark, big BUB, closed above the .6800. . . possible entry above this high.
Black arrow, IB closed above the .6800 . . possible entry above this high.
. .chart 2 . . blue arrow . . BUB closed above the .6800 (barely). . .possible entry above this high.
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Your home work assignment Pb is to review your demo order as it related to the James16's "This is Critical."
Would you have done something different? Did it help in any way? etc.
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken
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Man, this is the holy grail written out if ever I saw it.
There are two places on the journey where trading looks dirt simple. The beginning and the end. The path in between can be a world of hurt. When you start it looks so easy and effortless, you can't wait to start, trade big positions, give other people your money to trade for you....anything just to get the cash register ringing. Then you get hurt and bruised (inevitably) and you get paralysed by fear. You start associating pulling the trigger with losing because you become gunshy. (After...
Quote:
Originally Posted by glyder
Tiaforex, that was a great post, I esp like the part I copied above, but the whole of it was superb.
Why is it, Aaron . . . everytime you post . . .I think about changing my signature.
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is it because of the big BUB bar that determines the bullish sentiment here, bro?
jeurre
Yes and no. Its the BUB, yes, but the BUB is part of the PA setup . .the Weekly PB. Its not just a random bar at a PPZ level. Its preferably a high quality PA setup Bar that closes above the PPZ or strong confluenced level. Meaning, it would have be better it the Weekly PB's Close was above the PPZ level, .6800.
Notice the Daily IB was a stand alone setup that closed above the .6800.
Its was to illustrate that a PA setup is given supportive strength when the bar Close is above the PPZ level. Its not a trade breaker if it doesn't close above/below but it is preferred.
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I have a Kamikaze buy stop with a 120 pip SL, right around the area I would be thinking of taking TP1 & BE had I taken the IB on the daily.
This one has to go in my journal. It shows how PA is really a double edged sword and getting so involved with a single PA candle can blind us from seeing what is going on around it.
So the James16 "This is Critical" #4, kept you out of the trade. That's good right?
What about the other choices? How would they play out?
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE. 4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.
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I just wanted to say Hi, and thanks to Jim and the rest of the people here. I've been following the thread for a while after discovering it from the sticky in the Rookie Discussion forum, been through the guest material on the james16 group site, and attempting to apply it to my charts.
I'm still trying to find my feet, haven't figured some things such as position sizing properly yet, but I'm slightly over break even since starting to follow this (in demo of course ) thanks to James' no nonsense approach to demonstrating horizontal support...
Welcome cheeseweasel. I don't think I've seen that user name before. lol
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nice multiple bar analysis, eye openning, great job
Thanks jeurre.
It is interesting to look at non-PA setup bars that closes above/below a given PPZ level and/or BRN.
Example, Price breaks through a level then breaks through it again . . and then take an entry at the High(or Low) of the bar that closed above (or below) that level.
If I'm making sense.
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more than making sense, jarroo, as long as jarroo says it, i take it as part of my bible, serious ! coz it makes money, period, paragraph
how much weight this style plays in your recent tradings? i guess it is situational depandent ? or would you mostly follow through this approach in future? thanks
jeurre
Easy pal. I would take my word as bible. lol. Far from it. I just go about my trading stlye that works for me. A lot of back testing and alot of demo.
Seeing where Price closes as it relates to a Price Action setup is important. Like a BEOB that engulfs many bars. Its important that the close of that BEOB closes below the bars that it engulfs, etc.
As for non-PA bars to where and how they close . . . its interesting and I have looked into it but not much backtesting. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. The best qualifier is of course a high PA setup bar.
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Just be aware that the Daily IB had a lot of trafic. Those previous bar Highs (in blue) are very much in play. And to paraphrase James16 from "This is Critical" . . "we are aware that they are there".
As you can see how those previous Highs reacted on the Hourly chart on the initial move. So . .a lot of traffic . .move to break even quickly is not a bad option.
But your right, the strong target was the .6900 the Weekly PPZ level.
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Thanks, Jarroo you gracious help and the weekly & daily charts are indeed starting to get the thought process working. Even if it is all after the fact.
Hit me with another one anytime...Please!!
You got it buddy. . . now go backtest this with 200 A+ setups and take notes on all 4 options . . wait 5 options . . . . the free trade approach too.
(just kidding Pb. lol . . or am I . . . . . . .lol)
Your doing great.
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You are no doubt serious, and something like that is probably at least what it will take to get me on track.
Thanks again Jarroo and hoping you & indeed everyone else has a wonderful weekend. I shall also have a great weekend back testing with trading simulator.
Your on the right path, Pb. You'll find the best setups are the easiest. If the setup becomes complicated its not a good setup at all.
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That's OK Bundy. I've had Man-crush on you for a long time . .that's a . . . professional . . .trading . . .analysis . . .type . .crush . . .Oh man . . . I see what you mean. . . . lol.
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The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was triggered for a loss of 1.3%. I think Weekly and Monthly pivots may not mean much instead we should use Price flip zones. Went thru the videos of PeterFM and found same very informative. Now I have marked my charts accordingly and will look for setup around those areas of interest.
One question for the seniors, though not related to this trade, should we keep our Trade posn open during the weekend. I have always been told and of late I have seen also that the weekend...
Continuation bars can be risky. That's why we like Ouside Bars at swings Highs/Lows. As KissFan mentioned at the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
The daily BEOB is tempting but Id be a seller of UCAD if this bar were at a swing high.
K.I.S.S.
Floors pivots don't make sense to me in the forex market. Floor pivots are mathamatical equation off the OHLC but the forex market really doesn't have an Open or Close. Where in the stocks and futures markets there is an acutually Open and Close, so that does make sense.
Flips zones (PPZ levels) are pretty consistent no matter what broker or what the "Open or Close" is in the forex market. So you can see why James16 emphasizes on the PPZ levels. If Jim thought floor pivots played an important role believe he would mention them more in his posts and charts.
Keeping a trade open over the weekend really depends on how much cushsion you have in that trade. Like you said, a move of 200 pips could happen or the weekend or a global event could happen etc. So if i was long the Cad at 1.000 I would hold it over the weekend. lol
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Hey guys, just started reading this thread, and was hoping for some feedback. Do this look like a good bars to you? I believe it is a BUOB for the USD/CHF. It is following the stronger trend, and appears to have found support at 1.1500. Thanks guys.
Try this for posting charts:
If you’re a meta trader user just right click on the meta trader chart and go to “Save As Picture”.
Then “Select the image you would like to save:” Pick “Active chart (as is)” then click “OK”.
Save anywhere you want i.e. Desktop or a folder.
Then when you enter to post comments go down to “Manage Attachments” click that.
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Done.
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There was some good discussion at the time of this setup (and after). A great way to use this thread for potential setups that occurred a few days ago or when backtesting setups from a year ago or more is to check to see if there were any posts made at the time of the setup. Most likely, there were comments made here.
Here's was one that I liked on the Usd/Chf at the time of this setup..
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey W
Firstly let me say that this is only the way I interpret this situation and go about it. There certainly isn't one right or wrong way so if you feel confident in your approach do not let this dissuade you.
The reason I am looking for it is simply to see who is in control. If we think of the round number as our battle line, and the consolidation as the "fight" area if we can close below it(blue box) we see the bears have gained control. We also can make that assumption b/c when the bulls tried to push it above the last high it was shot...
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it was a breakout of BEB close. yes, I closed half position on th FTA and moved the rest to BE, so, basically, it was not a bad trade. thanks
jeurre
Hey jeurre.
Bars close breaks at PPZs can be a bit risky so I like that you are managing them tightly and demoing too right?
Some thoughts on them, next bar breaks are important. Meaning if the next bar doesn't break the setup then forget it. . . think momentum.
Daily chart. I'm guessing that you used the 1219.00 as your PPZ which wasn't bad. The stronger and more confluenced PPZ level the better. (interesting where Gold closed on Friday, we were not that surprised. PPZ level.)
Obviously a PA setup has much more potential then just a regular bar close. (Purple and blue PB) Go figure. lol
Also lower time frames can be used, but I like the higher times frames for this setup they seem to have more strength. (8 Hour chart)
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That PB looks maybe a little like what Ghous is doing, I am trying to not get involved with that stuff yet.
It looks like more of a retracement before it goes into the downtrend or it is going to spend a while ranging before it breaks out Short.
The weekly PB failed to break the 38.2 fibo.
Well . . . I was asking about the Weekly PB in blue. Now that we have seen how it performed, we can make some conclusions about how it worked out and some reasons why it didn't work out.
Probably the first and foremost reason was quite simple why it didn't work out well . . .The size was too small compared to the previous bars and to counter the strong move down.
It did reach its FTA, albeit a short distance away.
Although it is not completely invalid yet, due to not breaking its low. Its being held up now by its left eye which is in the .6600 PPZone level.
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Oh, Sorry Jarroo. I naturally assumed I had to find some more complicated reason.
Still, maybe I was in the same ball park, sort of, with the Monthly Bearish candle being so big.
In future if you ask me about a weekly candle, I will confine my analysis to the weekly.
Actually, maybe this highlights a problem I have, looking at too many time frames and complicating things to the point where it becomes impossible to pull the trigger.
Yeah, its important to stay on the same time frame that the setup was given. For S/L, targets, PPZ level. This is good because many people go down to lower time frames for clues to "help" them. It only gets confusing.
But it is always good to look to the higher time frame that the setup was given to look for clues for help. Meaning, a setup on the Daily is good to look at the Weekly and Monthly for trends, PPZ level, etc. You said it perfectly the Monthly Bearish candle being so big.
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Well, I don't see any setups yet, so I was commenting only on the area.
Looking at H4 we may have a possible IB forming but I doubt such a bar on H4 is going to break that monthly PPZ at 0.6560
Looks like we could be in a consolidation area on the Daily. The Weekly clearly shows a strong trend downward. I'm sure that trend is eyeballing the .6500 (BRN).
If on the 4 hour, I would like to see another swing high maybe up by this white box, for some nice bearish PA. But then again the downward trend could be strong enough for even a bearish IB at the .6600.
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space = no traffic, right?
i think we may have said it differently, but we mean the same thing.
Dan's PB has alot of traffic. There is no space for that PB to run. Heading right into traffic. There's no traffic or space below the entry of that PB but we are not entrering there.
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Ah, yes Sir, i see now.
it's my fault. i was referring to the space to the left of the PB, but u were pointing to the possible traffic above the PB which im fully aware of.
regardless, the PB's got a looooong nose, im buying
You would think with such BIG Pin Bars they would have at least reach the FTAs. lol
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Ok, this is the part I think it's key: setup was there, we pulled the trigger. Now, trade management. Hopefully the senior members will help here.
As you can see in the attached chart, price tried to go south but was supported around 4460, then came up precisely to my first salmon area and apparently was rejected from there. My point is: we have let price to show its face. I would have rather preferred a move down straight forward, but since it came up and it's making a new try to lows... what would you do here?
My opinion is to treat it aggressively,...
Its not at bad setup eli. But its not the best either. I would manage it, as you said, aggressively.
I like your targets, protect them. Meaning protect yourself from a loss once they are hit.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Ok, this is the part I think it's key: setup was there, we pulled the trigger. Now, trade management. Hopefully the senior members will help here.
As you can see in the attached chart, price tried to go south but was supported around 4460, then came up precisely to my first salmon area and apparently was rejected from there. My point is: we have let price to show its face. I would have rather preferred a move down straight forward, but since it came up and it's making a new try to lows... what would you do here?
My opinion is to treat it aggressively,...
Looking good eli. There she goes.
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Thanks Jarroo. Price developed wonderfully! So TP at 4415 here, left only 1/3 of position now to reach the second one. SL to BE for the rest, will trail it accordingly.
Amazing... for a guy like me, lost in the 5m charts for months, this is purely amazing.
Thanks everybody around.
Let that 1/3 ride. Forget you even took it. lol We could be seeing the 1.4000. I caught the BEOB off the 1.4500.
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Sure, I will. Regarding your BEOB, how did u manage to do so since the bar wasn't closed until well below 1.4500?
Sorry elizo, probably a bad choice of words on my part. My entry was 1.4427, just below the BEOB, not the 1.4500. The BEOB was off the 1.4500, PPZ level. Like your PB was off the 1.4500.
I took off half position at the FTA for 43 pip and move my S/L for the 2nd half -43 pips from my entry for a "free trade" . I was stopped out for a net zero loss.
Looks like your PB at BE is looking good.
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Hi, i just spotted this small pin bar of 1250 super grand resistance with macd bearish divergence, im going to place a sell stop in demo below the pinbar, with 3 targets (see in charts below) and see how it behaves.
Looks good emilio. I like your targets.
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I was trading futures back then but i find the monthly chart below to be interesting.
a ten year run straight up started with a bullish outside bar in the early 90"s. was this in conjunction with what you speak of? someone else will have tro answer that.
Nice retest of the break on that Cad monthly BUOB.
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And I keep wondering if Jim is from Western US, coz I heard him speaking in the videos, and the accent is like Lost's Sawyer... He might even give us some nicknames...
Someone said that he sounds like Dr. Phil . . I've been chuckling about that one ever since. lol
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I originally was of the opinion that that PB was at a Swing Low and not an A+ setup. TD did a good job of convincing me it was an A+ setup.
His logic seemed to outweigh my knowledge and I decided it may be an A+ setup. Now Jarroo opens another can of worms.
I guess it was the swing low and relative size of the PB that determined this was not an A+ setup, then?
Still, I think TD's logic was sound & I learned from this discussion, I learned that, I should be looking at higher TF PA setups and try to...
Yes, Pb. The PB was at a swing low and the size was "OK" but not great . . .not A+. One could say there was a minor swing high but it wasn't very deep in the retrace of the current move down. But the key to the setup was the 1.4500 PPZ level. Isn't that aways the case? Location.
TD made some valid points of how he trades to give him more confluence to take that setup. Which is great. You will find your own criteria over time and practise.
If there are many opinions about a setup being A+ or B-, etc . . most of the time its not an A+ setup. The PB I drew is A+, not too many people here would say otherwise.
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Looks like we could be in a consolidation area on the Daily. The Weekly clearly shows a strong trend downward. I'm sure that trend is eyeballing the .6500 (BRN).
If on the 4 hour, I would like to see another swing high maybe up by this white box, for some nice bearish PA. But then again the downward trend could be strong enough for even a bearish IB at the .6600.
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Hi everyone, this is my first post in this thread, but have already read a ton of the material, and have learnt so much already. Thanks to all, especially the senior members, who still take time to help others.
Just posting these charts to receive feedback as to whether the PB on H8 would be a reasonable trade. On H8 it has bounced off quite a bit of confluence:
- both 365 and 150 ema's
- trend line
- confluence of two fibs at 50% and 61.8%
My concern is whether I am trading into too much traffic. I thought my first trouble area would be...
Welcome from the shadows Grant.
Just to add from Mike.
I took the 4 hour PB, a bit small though. But the location is very strong.
Those are all good confluences, Grant, but it seems that you are missing the main one, the 1.0400 Weekly/Daily PPZ level. PPZ levels are at the core of what James16, Mike and many others teach here. Without the PPZ level those other confluences have no meaning, (imo).
Yes, too agrressive on your target. Previous bar Highs/Lows, PPZ level (in my case , the 4 hour PPZ levels), RNs, etc.
Jim
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Jarroo & indeed anyone else.
Obviously, I am lacking something basic and racking my brain out to try and find it.
This rant, is probably going to be long so, I will post it in pieces as I work out what it is I am missing, as I work it out or don?t work it out, whichever as, I think the process irrespective of the conclusion is important.
I have been really thinking about the TREND, what is it? Is it a series of bars, is it a single bar on a large TF, when does it start, when does it end? And, probably most importantly, how do we discover when...
I like where you're going with this Pb.
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Pls give a call here on the forum if you see the above PB in any currency or futures. Lets make some money (demo or real) doesn't matter.
Cheers
Novice 198
Will do, novice198. lol
Can you image only taking setups that look like that? Well that's the point of it all. Taking only A+ trades. They don't happen all the time . . unless . . . you look at more pairs . .so look at as many pairs as you can.
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What I should have ended my rant on but I was outside, was that I worry about people over complicating before grasping the basics(not saying you are necessarily over complicating per se, but I can see you churning away and don't want you to veer to far off) . And those basics are POWERFUL. A powerful bar at a prime location is an AMAZING thing. Everything else aside. Look at jarroos bar he just pointed out which I am sure you saw. Forget about everything else that you have ever learned but a beautiful bar at a swing high there. Then...
One trade a year per pair . . . I like it Mike.
Great post(s).
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As price is currently at this area, I may skip the rest of those monthly candles and do this in real time on the NZD/USD.
It will probably offer me a better understanding doing it in real time, or it will certainly show me my mistakes. Now I have just the history to use to work out the mystery on the right hand side of the chart.
Its good that your looking through the charts and seeing how Price moves and behaves, Pb.
But let me ask you on your 4 hour chart, is there a setup that just really stands out . . like Mike's 3 PA setups on the Monthly. Anything you see on the 4 hour like that?
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Normally when we draw PPZ we are using the absolute highs and lows of the candles. I am wondering after moving to the current NZD/USD Monthly candle and drawing PPZ, if the open and close of these candles have any significance.
I just noticed a lot of them around the area I drew the PPZ at.
Well that would be because of the BRN, .7000.
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When these bars are in play, we do not have the comfort of seeing them at a top or a bottom because the next candle does not exist.
I mean, if we look at these candles without the next bars, what makes them at a top or bottom. Couldn't the next candle form and just as easily make a higher top or bottom?
They are at swing highs and lows my friend. That's what we are looking for.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks Mike, Jim for the advise. I think I will skip that one, but am curious how the MM would work for a trade that is in a bit of traffic.
Mike, from what I understand from some of your posts, you would not trail under those circimstances. Would that mean exit everything at the first trouble area? Or could you enter AFTER the first trouble area, from which point you may have a cleaner run?
Jim, are you still in that H4 trade?
Grant
Sorry gc, I missed your question. I got out on this one; half a postion at breakeven and the other half for -7 pips.
I liked how Price retest the break and stayed above the break during the asian hours.(as seen on the Hourly). But it failed to make my FTA where I would have free traded it. The reason why I would have placed a free trade was due to its small size and countering a strong move down.
I do like the location 1.0400 and the PB hasn't failed yet and may work out fine, but that's how I play'em. I want to see a hard break and continuation of the setup once it breaks. Which did not happen.
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this is my take on the EURUSD. I will be looking at PA in the blue rectangle area. Confluence of important PPZ that the last downswing broke + 32% fib ret of this swing + diagonal TL.
I will consider shortong this pair IF PA favourable as this would be a trade along with long term trend.
There are 2 things to worry about:
- the massive momentum up to this point
- bullish divergence on MACD (if the price decides to bounce of my rectangle of course )
Wow, I've drawn the rectangle today morning, but thought price would reach it tomorrow....
Usually this trade is followed by a "KaBoom" but that just the Rac-man coming to mind.
Support turning into Resistance. Classic.
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while Mike is taking a quick power nap I'll try to jump in,
In my opinion both the cases are worlds apart, and what makes them so different is the information they contain. A pin bar even on the weekly carries less information (or price action) than a tightening range on the same tf or even on a lower tf.
When price breaks out of a range it can be expected to return to test the break out point, simply because it needs to ensure what it is looking to do is backed with enough orders in the market...
Very nice ghous.
I want to take that 2nd chart, enlarge it, frame it and put on my wall.
It's a work of art.
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I don't think I ever addressed a post to you personally and I did mean to several times but never quite found the words. It was going to be a carefully thought out post.
Anyway I know that's probably not your style and it's not mine so here goes. When I started in this game I was confident I would get to grips fairly quickly and no, I didn't need any help. Two years in and I was only vaguely getting the feel of it. I kept seeing references to this thread which is coming up to a 5 years celebration now, but you know what pride is and I thought...
Nice post Mike . . .I'll have a beer with you.
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Rac-man meanig raczekfx? He would go for a touch trade wouldn't he? Touch trades are a no-go zone for me, at least for now. I still have to develop that specific feeling for price, call it intuition or whatever. Raczek amazed me with his trades to the point of disbelief.
Anyway I've created a chart with possible PPZ for a kaboom scenario. The upward move would first be dampened by a congestion zone (blue-greyish zone).
The first serious PPZ would be the 1.2437 level. Price has obeyed that level both as support and resistance. The 200 EMA is...
Its a classic Rac (Raczek) setup. . . Support turning into Resistance (or a PPZ level), 61.8 fib, trendline confluence . . this is the KABoom setup. Your other areas you have noted are ok but for now this is the setup.
There is no "feel" for Price or intuition this is at the heart of how he trades or touch trades. Close to the 1.2150. with a 25-30 pip Stop loss. Bam. Being able to see it develop is the trick which just takes time.
The fact that it didn't go Kaboom could be telling, meaning that there might be something else going on. . . .time and patience will tell for sure but i like its odds for going down.
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Even though this is demo & I can't bank any actual pips, I can bank something perhaps better, Experience.
I don't want to demo any different than I will trade my actual live account.
Absolutlely Pb.
Now this was on the Hourly we shouldn't be trading on this time frame, Daily and Weekly remember (good thing Mike or James16 aren't around).
But can you imagine if this was on the Daily. You could almost add a zero to the pip count. But the main point of this Hourly setup was how it stood out amoung the rest. Funny how we were just talking about it on the Nzd. lol
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I think you saw it coming, and nudged me psychically. LoL
But, yes, that was the point, you guys were teaching me this and some of it got through my thick skull.
I now know what a swing high & low is....Weird, this swing high & low thing seems so simple compared to other aspects of trading yet, I could not see them.
Price was just like some uncontrollable beast going where it will, it still is uncontrollable of course. Maybe now, I can see where it wants to go a little better.
and it will get easier it just takes time.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.