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  #66756  
Old Jun 19, 2010 2:27am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey g-man. What do you think of the Nzd/Jpy Daily IPB?
Would love to see it work out but it looks like a tough call. Lot's of traffic and whippy volatile moves,

Will be watching it for sure...though that's only what this IPB will get from me.

Location is sound of course but in terms of price action and preceding bars maybe the IPB could have been longer to indicate more strength.

g.
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  #66758  
Old Jun 19, 2010 2:37am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Thanks g.

I may take a small postion. Also that bar High, 4 bars previous, is bugging me. Should be fun to watch.
Some outstanding confluence on the setup...location wise truly rocks!

(blue EMA is the 150)

g.
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  #66760  
Old Jun 19, 2010 2:46am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
That's why I posted it g. I knew you would like that location. Who wouldn't.


looks like Usd/Cad worked out pretty fine too eh?

g.
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  #66770  
Old Jun 19, 2010 3:55pm
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Originally Posted by artov View Post
On my chart it's looking even less significant. I will skip it. But the USD/CAD was a nice one

Earlier in the week I played the GBP/USD IPB. I took the second one which got stopped out soon after the entry. The first IPB prior to the one I took went very well.
I guess I learned that I shouldn't trade an IPB after one has occurred prior to it.
I have said it before and I am going to say it again...

You enter an entire new dimension in your trading career, on the very the day you stop "bar hunting"

It's when the chart "appeals" more to the naked eye than when it only hosts a PA bar at a particular location, that you know you are now legitimately trying to understand what, why, when and where price does what it does,

We come have come to know a term called "price pivot zone" from some of the gurus in the business. the day you realize that this tool here is more than just a horizontal line you throw in to validate a PA bar's location...you know you have started to really get the hang of it. Don't get me wrong, our ppzs do serve the primary purpose of validating PA setups, but we often fail to look upon them as the "gas stations" for price...price thrives on these levels in the market.

You say the IPBs you took were off a ppz? Take a closer look friend, price was merely hanging about it.

A question here. What defines a strong ppz?

Good historical evidence of supp/res at the level? A BIG round number? Both??

A strong ppz is where the big orders lie, and an area that is obvious enough to allow smaller traders like us to believe with some sort of conviction that the bigger orders (not physically visible) are lying there, and that depends on historical evidence and the roundness of the price level, yes.

This is precisely why we refer to a ppz as strong when price immediately bounces off it and does not look back, while we doubt the strength of one where price hangs about and pulls back to it often.

So was the IPB/s really off a solid resistance zone as should be for a good tradable bearish IPB? Was price action (not the pa bars...price action general) really indicating that the uptrend has exhausted and the bears have every reason to drag price down south?

Extract some hints from the text in the chart below and see if you can answer these questions.

(IPBs work best when at extreme swing points, where they don't appear to be after a minor consolidation which can rob them off their "reversal traits")

g.
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Last edited by ghous, Jun 19, 2010 4:05pm
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  #66782  
Old Jun 20, 2010 8:33am
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Happy trading!

I?ve noticed the power of Mike?s cherry trades! Then I noticed I have a problem when trying to find space when selling. Is this right? We have space to sell, when price has rised and then moved a little bit sideways?

Loving this thread, loving the life more and more
here you go.

hope it clears the issue.

g.
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  #66788  
Old Jun 20, 2010 12:23pm
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Thank you ghous, it cleared, a lot

This is a pair I?ve been keeping my eye on..In this situation(I4B at BRN), we have little space. We have TAs near so we want to manage this tightly. Getting these things.. Hopefully

And there?s another chart, is this a good example about when we have space?
You got it!
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  #66814  
Old Jun 20, 2010 11:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey g.

I knew that bar high was bugging me for a reason. If they are not perfect, they are not worth the risk. This IPB located at the 65.00 would have been much better.
I don't know but I am getting into this habit of passing in on an IPB whenever it is not at an extreme swing point of a pull back or a trend high/low. This wasn't an exception. Once again the extreme swing was that bar high which was bugging you jarroo...small stops are great for R:R but then they require the trade to immediately materialize which is less likely when price is near a swing point rather than at it.

g.
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  #66817  
Old Jun 20, 2010 11:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Not sure if this can relate to your post Ghous, but I have this thinking that trading with the trend is always much safer than going against it. This is because retracements happen way more than reversals. Yes some people might profit from every corner the price makes (the little reversals off retracements, and who doesn't want to catch an extreme reversal??), but for safety, I think beginners like me should trade with the trend as an insurance. When the price looks like it reverses, I should look for signs that it will return to its major trend.

Attachment 494205...
That is not at all a bad idea...in fact very smart thinking.

Me likes it!

When you have a slam dunk swing high swing low trade as per J16 methods trust your instincts to fire and give you the gut feeling that you have to go for it. These are trades that come by in months with dense confluences and bars that appear like a torch in pitch black darkness. (like the pin bar in the chart below)

Rest of the times you can always just trade with the trend and make smart money.

g.
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  #66839  
Old Jun 21, 2010 8:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
So I was just lucky?

EDIT: I take profit a 1090
Maybe not entirely.

The fact that it was right off 1.1 was a superb plus point to it...again it wasn't near the RN it was bang on top of it.

To me though it just looked like the market gapped down this morning and then looked to fill it up but lost momentum quickly and fell back to close near the open...bar wise yes that's a valid IPB but again in the "context" sure wasn't a real good bullish sign, if instead of the gap we had a bearish bar with a tail touching the 1.1 RN and then this IPb then it was sure would ave been a beautiful trade setup.

As of now it appears to be an IPB but a no trade if you understand what price looks to do when it gaps up or down at the start of the week in a market that is the most liquid of them all.

DO NOT LET GO OFF THE BIG PICTURE. EVEN THE BIGGEST PIN BAR IN THE WORLD IS SMALL IN VALUE COMPARED TO THE THEN PREVALENT PRICE ORDER FLOW AND THE OVERALL MARKET ACTION.
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  #66840  
Old Jun 21, 2010 9:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shanetrader View Post
Hi Guys,

Im new to this forum, really love it and learning all the time. Just wanted to bring some input to the table. Below is a trade im waiting to line up, i would be keen for others opinions. Just waiting for the price action to fall into place. Shanetrader.......

Im looking for a long trade on the USD/CHF,

Reasons,
1. Uptrend retracement approaching 61% fib level.
2. Retracement lining up with 365ema
3. Retracement also lining up with weekly trendline shown.
4. Strong Resistance at the 1.0900 region

Obviously wait for the correct...


A chart sure would help? Which bar if any are you referring to?
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  #66841  
Old Jun 21, 2010 9:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
That isnt really an exhaustion pattern though, because there is only a downmove and then a pause. Which, more than often, continues the same way. For a genuine exhaustion pattern, we would want to see another bullish leg first (and even then, we would probably wait for a breakout and retest, otherwise we are just buying into the top of a range and a PPZ). And a bigger range.

I wouldnt consider it an exhaustion bar either, since it is a small range bar and the market tried to move higher and failed. A genuine exhaustion bar would...
Bang on target as usual Joel,

The problem with IPBs is that for one they are just a pin bar located differently to an ideal one, secondly there are no hard and fast rules defined for an IPB (such as for pin bars for example we easily invalidate a pin bar if it does not close within the previous bar) an IPB can sometimes just be an inside bar as well, thirdly they caught the eye of a person who's not been trading or teaching for years.

I am honestly trying my best to get this concept straight and that too to only ppl who have been doing this for a while, it worries me to see a newbie who in one post asks a beginner question and in the next post posts an IPB setup, honestly I get spooked out at this, feel like throwing up

g.
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  #66859  
Old Jun 21, 2010 11:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Hopefully it doesnt stop you posting, really like reading your analysis on them. The way you approach them has definitely made me rethink not only these, but some other setups too (like 'traditional' pin bars) and how/why/if they work. Maybe you just need a big disclaimer in your sig

Also, I propose naming these back to 'Ghous bars'. If Keltner, Bollinger, Donchian, Chaikin, Williams and Fibbonacci can do it...
Like the disclaimer in sig idea.

About changing the name, I would have excepted the offer if I really was the founder of this PA setup, but it turns out it's always been there in the art of bar analysis since the beginning.

The reason I used IPB for the bar was because an IPB is basically e.g when instead of a regular bearish pin bar at a swing high you get a bullish pin bar which has bearish impacts on price then it really is an inverted regular pin bar...isn't it?



g.
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Last edited by ghous, Jun 21, 2010 11:43am
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  #66866  
Old Jun 21, 2010 1:13pm
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Hello!

James don?t like to think why price is moving where it?s moving, am i right? I remember he has said that "it just works". Hope i?m not totally wrong with this

I was inspired by ghous?post, but i?m having a headache thinking why the price sometimes breaks PPZs and sometimes not. Why even some relatively tiny FTA PPZ can turn price against PAsetups on great locations. And why price sometimes only very little respects relatively strong PPZs.
Unfortunately nuclear it isn't as simple as being inspired by a post, logging back into your mt4 and going "Aha!"

Lot's and lot's and lot's of screen time is imperative, just don't go broke trying to understand price movement, let it sink in naturally. It is magical stuff really because when you do see the light you'll struggle to find who or what lit the torch, and at the end of the day you'll lean back against your experience and chart time and say "Well, I have been doing this for a while"

Becoming a "jarroo" or an "Mbqb11" is not a transformation that can be done over night, it takes a lot more time then that.

the whole point behind chirping about looking at price deeper than a single PA bar and it's location is that you get your mind set right and start to take note of things these things will not be like "Ok so this is what a pin bar looks like" - instead expect something like "Ok so here's why this pin bar despite being great in shape failed to generate a move" - It's this flow of the market that you won't find explained in any post or book not because those who see the light are selfish but because it just can't be explained!

You will have to be patient and do your due diligence which is not to stare at ppzs 6 hours at a stretch to decipher the beast in the next few days but to just see how price moves about, get's attracted to PPZs, pulls away from them, hangs about them, kisses them, hugs them, hates them, loves them...

g.
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  #66867  
Old Jun 21, 2010 1:22pm
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Originally Posted by Dan-FX View Post
Hi All,

Sorry if this has already been posted haven't kept up with all the posts since the weekend....
hey Dan,

Firstly I like to enter at the close of the IPB and normally get out at the low of the IPB,

Secondly that bar's just an indecision bar. If you want to embrace this indecision and think it's probably because price wants to fill the gap then you should really just be calling it a gap trade.

IPB trades are triggered of good strong "pin barish" bars rather than "dojiish" bars.

g.
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  #66868  
Old Jun 21, 2010 1:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
hey Dan,

Firstly I like to enter at the close of the IPB and normally get out at the low of the IPB,

Secondly that bar's just an indecision bar. If you want to embrace this indecision and think it's probably because price wants to fill the gap then you should really just be calling it a gap trade.

IPB trades are triggered of good strong "pin barish" bars rather than "dojiish" bars.

g.
Here's a cherry,

read text in the order given in the chart. (1 then 2 then 3 and so on)

g.
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  #66889  
Old Jun 21, 2010 11:17pm
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Originally Posted by HanSolo View Post
Ghous, your charts are invaluable. Thank you very much for this!


I've got another question: I'm trying to become familiar with proper bar sizes. Assuming this would be a PB on NZDJPY and apart from location etc., would you consider it big enough to turn around the preceding uptrend?
Hey Hans,

The bar is big enough but then it lacks that authoritative look.

You see to reverse this short yet powerful burst from the bulls this pin bar will have to do an awful lot and you need it to be looking very strong and capable of achieving something of that sort. A hard quick break would dispel it's intentions nicely.


g.
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  #66891  
Old Jun 21, 2010 11:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vlazaf View Post
Hi Ghous,

How does this bullish IPB grab you?

Seems to be coiling off area of previous congestion.

Your views appreciated.
I am going for this one too...

Chart later.

g.
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  #66901  
Old Jun 22, 2010 12:39am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi Ghous,

Am I correct to say that this is not a Pinbar technically as the O & C of the bar are not within the eye of the bar on the left.

Cheers
Novice
Oh yes!

I definitely missed that point.
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  #66904  
Old Jun 22, 2010 1:21am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Proxy by that much (pressing thumb and index finger together very hard)

lol
lol.
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  #67125  
Old Jun 23, 2010 11:27am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi Possmer,

I have also started trading on demo account. However, as I do not find or "see' any good setups in the daily / weekly charts using the J16 method, I succumbed to the pressure of trading some other methods and lost some demo money. Now I am again trying to learn the game of patience and wait for the A to A+ set ups. There were some good setups that I missed as I am not in front of the PC for the full day. Life must go on Trading or no Trading.

BTW were all the setups that you traded yesterday based on the J16 method.

Cheers
Novice...
This is precisely why staying on the higher time frames early on in your career is like doing the biggest favor to yourself ever.

The patience that you get used to while waiting and waiting for a trade to appear, then materialize and finally give you profit is probably the best weapon that you will possess in the "you against the market" battle.

A lot of ppl who let their ego drive them will try to be the hero and show how it can be done starting off trying to scrapp large parts of the intra day market for big money. It's when they get to face this straight forward truth to practice on higher time frames delivered by the person who's been doing this for over 20 years that they realize just how stupid they were to let their ego and over confidence crowd out their "common sense"

A small part of such people who will actually make it to the long term regret when they get their for letting emotions and ego stretch their learning curves to an undesirable length. I belong to this group. Not that I am a "pro" trader with all the consistency in the world but that I finally see the light glowing at the end of the tunnel and when I look back I get heartbroken to see how I let myself get in the way of achieving this whole thing a long time back. Reminds me of the wise words of James16 "All that's between you and success in this business is what's between your ears"

Listen to the seniors here guys, can't emphasize on that enough.

g.
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  #67214  
Old Jun 24, 2010 7:11am
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Loved the way this BEOB threatens the short term S/R flip.

g.
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  #67264  
Old Jun 24, 2010 3:17pm
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
I like this.

Loads of setups on that hourly for that hour, did you have a look at the other ones like EJ, CHFJPY and AUDJPY and what was your opinion on them relative to the other ones and if you looked at them all what made you pick this one ?

Jig.
Hey Jig,

I am not looking at a whole bunch o' yens but Ej came close, could not pull the trigger though as the BEOB didn't exactly appear to close at or below a distinct price pivot zone as in the case of Au.

Here's a chart.

g.
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  #67265  
Old Jun 24, 2010 3:20pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Loved the way this BEOB threatens the short term S/R flip.

g.
Stopped out at BE.

As Jig pointed out this one hit the FTA, and bounced off, I was expecting it to move a bit more than it did, but I'll take what the market gives.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67266  
Old Jun 24, 2010 3:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv) View Post
Any one can give me the link to the IBP setup/bar ?, I mean how to spot it, what's the pattern, where to enter, where to put the SL. Basically, what are the rules

Thank you in advance,
Yaniv
Here you go Yaniv,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=52647

g.
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  #67270  
Old Jun 24, 2010 3:51pm
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Originally Posted by (Yaniv) View Post
Hey g,

what do you think about that?

Yaniv
Looks good Yaniv

g.
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  #67275  
Old Jun 24, 2010 4:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Here's yesterdays trade with FTA hit refer to previous post.

However, here is a dilema and need some help.

I work a full time job and hard to monitor trades---this can be a good thing because it forces me to take IMO what I consider the very best trades....
Never in a million years would I advise you to quit your job so you could manage trades well on the daily.

A lot of people including Dan a.k.a "Gids" at the pf trade with this method where they take full profit at the FTA. The best thing about such a method is that you eliminate discretion from your trading and let firm rules show you the way, if there's anything that will ensure that you trade without emotions it's got to be this "rules set in stone". You get to avoid situations like:

"Jeez, getting late for office! Oh wait Eu's at support what to do? I am going to kill this one it's hardly moving at all...but then darn it! I'll be going against my trade plan but then I never thought price would die out like that, I guess I'll just pull it off....UURRRGGGHHH!! No I still believe in this trade. I am going to let this liv...BLimey!!! Is that the time? Boss'll kill me"

Solid rules is one way you can make it in this business, not the only way for sure but amongst the best out there, and it's precisely why Mike's admired.

I see no problem with you taking trades off at the FTA, as you gain experience you'll learn how even less than A+ setups can be skinned for some decent cash to the FTA and then it all balances out in the end,

I would advice you to try this strategy out of pulling off trades at the FTA if you don't get the time to manage them as they unfold further.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67305  
Old Jun 24, 2010 10:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The A+ setup examples seem to be rare as of late but when they do appear then tend to really standout.

Its all about waiting for them and being picky about their location, size, structure, confluences, etc. Why? Because when they do appear they can be worth the wait . . . to say the least.


(What was the fundamentals on this again?)
Couldn't stop grinning at this.

This guy knows his stuff!

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67313  
Old Jun 24, 2010 10:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I've been itching to short Tiffany for months now.

Attachment 497078

Give me a break below 40, a retest and then I'll make back all that money you have cost me around anniversary/birthday/chistmas time for the last few years. Jerks.

-----------
Also, just because it is Friday: A mate just bought a new toy. 14 monitor setup? Hell yes.

http://www.digitaltigers.com/stratos...elite-xe14.asp

(he is only running 6x 24" monitors, but I suspect more are coming soon)
.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67332  
Old Jun 25, 2010 1:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mordre View Post
Morning everyone, I see great debate in taking the GU setup. Well my sell stop is in place waiting to see what happens. Tight SL above todays high.
Touch trading this early in your career...
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67335  
Old Jun 25, 2010 1:35am
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If ever the market would consistently move as swiftly as that post count.

I haven't been trading for a whole bunch of years but I see jarroo/price blowing through this BRN in no time.

jeez he'll do it while responding to your post Joel.

good ol' pri...jarroo.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67406  
Old Jun 25, 2010 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Rac special . . . 1.5000, 30 pip stop loss.
That's exactly what I was talking about related to the Gu setup. It has that "Raccy" look to it which gives the experienced eye a heads up on sound locations.

A "jarroo" can look cool taking and managing these but we know what taking these can do to a newbie right?

Reminds me of the time when I was trying to copy jarroo about a year and a half ago...eeeehhh! Scary dreadful times for sure

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #67481  
Old Jun 26, 2010 7:54am (39 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I am taking a fondness to this weekly IPB chf/jpy

short off RN
off 61.8
off PPZ

cons--bub (but look at those monster down bars several weeks ago, gap over the wknd...can i get in where it closed or is it to doji like for you taste?
First I would second Mike that it really is just an Indecision bar, which may not be enough of an indication of momentum exhaustion.

Secondly what I see first hand on my chart is that this IPB/indecision bar is near that all important location rather than on it, which straight away makes the setup an invalid one for me.

The fibs also need to be off distinct and really obvious swings in the market than just a bar high which you used.

With all that in the mind the real confluence zone is still about 60 pips away from your bar high,

g.
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