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  #60836  
Old Apr 14, 2010 11:00am
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Originally Posted by chartergas View Post
I'm trying to work out the right timing to move break even
Twice I have moved up my stop loss to BE but then it hits and then takes off
At the moment I have played two pinbars been up approx 100 pips and then move up SL and then get stopped out

I'm trading one pinbar in D1 should I run a two bar stop to prevent thiis
And one in H1 as well !

What's the best timing to move to BE?????
Hi Chartergas,

Throw up your chart if you can.

It's a little frustrating for you at first, since it depends on the type of situation the trade is in (regarding traffic etc) and you need to learn to recognise and choose. (and based a little on your own "style" too , in time.)

Don't run the other way though. lol ...It'll just take a bit of practice to recognise the best way for which situation. But everyone here will help you get there.

Edit: Bluetrader's suggestion is fantastic too. (eg Jaroo's methods)
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  #60870  
Old Apr 14, 2010 11:27pm
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Originally Posted by badhairday View Post
Hello everyone, I have 1 question and its about how you guys would deal with a level retrace.

The trend move that goes up like stairs instead of a zigzag.
To add to Mike's answer BHD...

Not all moves give you entry opportunities, as mike said.

One of the better/safer ways to get in is like so...
(Where you would wait for a GOOD Pin etc at point X)
(If the entry point also includes other good confluence you should do ok, on average. Just be wary of divergence)
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  #60879  
Old Apr 15, 2010 1:09am
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Originally Posted by badhairday View Post
Thanks Bundy and Mike.

I'm starting to realize that I'm reaching the point of where I read so much that I'm freezing due to mixture of anxiety and desire for perfection.

Gotta start applying and testing if I'm going to make it...
That's where starting out on the daily charts helps.

If you can wait most of a month for those one or two (or so) easy trades, you're doing it right. You'll build a skill that will work all the way down the time frames later on.

The anxiety comes from needing to make money NOW and working on hope. Trying to hop onto more potential moves than YOUR advantage actually gives you.
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  #60966  
Old Apr 16, 2010 6:41am
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Default EUR/JPY - 4 Hr Pin - excellent location

EUR/JPY - Good 4 Hr Pin - excellent location (fxpro chart)

Can anyone throw up the example chart?

I gotta run... (hungry) But I'm so surprised this was missed here.

Check your line charts too for those that do. Wait for these and you make it a lot easier for yourself.

(I'm out. Made money and BE'd out. But some take off on ya.)
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  #60991  
Old Apr 16, 2010 9:37am
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Originally Posted by artov View Post
Here you go Bundy
Cheers Artov.

Was intending to post up something.

61.8% + Daily PPZ + Trendline + EMAs + Pin

Throw in a good PPZ and some good confluence and you won't lose money very often.

Set stop to break even at previous consolidation area (purple circle - 4hr) ,took half profit when it stalled. Walk away and forget.
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  #61028  
Old Apr 16, 2010 11:54pm
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Originally Posted by Autumm View Post
Hi,

i have a question regarding the DBHLC on the Eur/Jpy that appeared on my feed.

I was planning to play the retracement on this one, however it did not came. Looking at the way it broke downside, i would say that even if price retrace back to within the previous daily bar, it is no longer a valid trade anymore?

With regards to playing retracement trades, how do we consider if the trade is no longer valid?
I wouldn't enter a trade as a direct result of that bar anymore. It's too late , as you pointed out.

Once you've already had the momentum the first time, your odds decrease a lot for getting a successful run again.

If you're too late and miss out, just move on.

You're looking to take advantage of one of two things...

One.... is momentum from that bar the moment it does it's thing. (wether you catch a retracement entry or whatever). The best set up bars are large and close right at the extreme , or not far from it. The buying/selling pressure is strong at THAT time. This time you missed it. Don't get beat up over it. You need to evaluate your strategy over many trades, not just one.

Two.... is another independent setup off of the same level later on. Another pin or BEOB or whatever next week or something off of that 127.70 or so level again. This is where sellers came in, twice.

The only other valid option is in cases where the following movement went far enough to break through another valid level you could base another trade off of when it retraces to it. (A really good level with good confluences. ) Wether on the same time frame or whatever.
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  #61029  
Old Apr 17, 2010 12:19am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11
...They are like how can you do anything without the news! Yet I get grilled about it every time.

Case in point last night here is an IM from a good friend.
...
H************k 1:19 am
(1:19:16 AM): does the accident in iceland affect u?
.
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
My favourite line was one of yours for when someone asks where the euro is

"I dunno.... one something?"

I Lol'd at these.

We must all have this happen all the time.

People get puzzled when you haven't got a clue what's happening in market or world news. "Oh.... Aren't you playing with shares anymore?" (Yeah... "Shares" ...I stopped correcting people ages ago. LOL)

The old girl still doesn't understand how I make money when things go bad too. lol

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  #61074  
Old Apr 17, 2010 11:30pm
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Originally Posted by Mauzzz View Post
Hey Guys,

I'm full of emotions right now and I don't know who else I can share them with that could understand me as well as you all can. Feel free to pay no attention to what I say, I just need to write it down to cool off.

So after two months of lurking around here I decided to get the forex tester and start applying some of the knowledge I've gained here. Well, as I should have expected - I failed horribly. I traded on the daily time frame, trying to follow all the rules - max 2% per trade, trying to take only the best pins, trying to set...
Welcome Mauzzz,

It'll most likely be location, or where you are taking trades on the chart , that's causing the most problems. And it does take a bit of work getting the trade management to suit the trades you personally will take too.

Like Jaroo said, go ahead with posting your charts!
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  #61075  
Old Apr 17, 2010 11:33pm
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Originally Posted by badhairday View Post
Isn't scalping supposed to be too risky and stupid for J16? or is scalping also considered just a trade for quick $$?
Real scalpers take super high frequency trades for 1 or 2 pips and such. Which is not the J16 way at all.

People in here use the term loosely to mean the way Supreme and GJ mentioned.
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  #61124  
Old Apr 18, 2010 11:17am
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
heres a q. that keeps coming back to me...
why does price almost always retest the res/sup it just broke through???we see it all the time but i never really understood it???is it simply the other side trying to get control again but meeting with heavy buying/selling at the same price range as before?? and if so why? didnt all the significant orders get triggered the first time????
hope i can catch up on some interesting posts later this eve???

cheers

jon
G'day Jon.

You've forgotten about the people who held on to a losing position way into bad territory and just want to get out at break even when/if it returns.

There are also those who don't believe it will go very far, so you see the first round of profit taking from those traders pull the price back to the line again where the winning team is now sitting and waiting to collect more at a bargain price.

And then there's the options traders needing to cover their asses etc.

As well as the psychological...
"Woah! ....she finally broke through $50.00 after failing to do so for 4 months straight! She's going up!!" "Damn... If she get's back down to $50.00 I'm getting me some of that action too!!"

There's plenty of weight to why it happens.

There are excellent articles/books on this somewhere. Mike or someone could rattle off a book title for you , I'm sure. ...been way too long since I read them. lol

Maybe Joel has a post somewhere too. He's good with these ones.
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  #61129  
Old Apr 18, 2010 11:45am
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Originally Posted by kk007
A number of factors are into consideration, pinbar length, the troubleness of the position, traffic, trendline, etc when evaluating position. I haven't found any problem with these factors. Here, I have singled out swing high/low to critise.

cheers,

kk
Hi kk,

Just so you know, the use of "Swing High" "Swing Low" terms are mainly used in here to stop a newcomer from taking a Bearish signal at a support/Low trade level or a Bullish signal at a resistance/High trade level. To stop them from taking them backwards, in other words.

I know it sounds silly, but you have to look at it from the point of view of someone who may have never even looked at a bar/candle chart before. Or who hasn't been at it very long anyway.

We deal with it all the time here and it gets the point accross very well when someone who is green identifies a signal backwards. They understand the point.

From there it's a matter of getting them to trade at good locations on the charts as well, and to get them away from trying pick bottoms and tops when any old signal comes up. Or stopping them from trying to be fortune tellers, as you say.
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  #61170  
Old Apr 18, 2010 11:08pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm realizing this too, Mike. My data is showing the same thing. Sure, you can catch a runner with a partial every now and then, but in terms of profitability it does make sense.
It's a growing confidence thing, eh?

There's no doubt, that starting out, it's much easier to do it the take-part-profit/set-rest-to-BE way. I have no trouble recommending it. It works!! I still do it on about a quarter of my trades. Keeps me sane.

When you get more experienced, you realise you are making great calls on the final targets for the move more and more often, and there's no point strangling your profits "just to be safe" anymore. Besides, on most trades you can still minimize the stop as the trade moves on towards your target anyway.
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  #61171  
Old Apr 18, 2010 11:13pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
hey,bundyraider, can you illustrate your points a bit with charts? thank you
Sure, no worries.

Which points exactly?

Later too, though. I gotta get out and get me some sun. lol
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  #61222  
Old Apr 19, 2010 12:26pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre
ah, I read a couple of times your post, would say more clear now on what you tried to express. I put my understanding below in blue color for your comment. please correct me if I am wrong. thanks


Quote Begin
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +
You're looking to take advantage of one of two things...

One.... is momentum from that bar the moment it does it's thing. (wether you catch a retracement entry or whatever). The best set up bars are large and close right at the extreme , or not far from it. The buying/selling pressure is strong at THAT time. This time you missed it. Don't get beat up over it. You need to evaluate your strategy over many trades, not just one. [ retrace not necessarily take place each time, it depands on momentum, if missed one, then move on to the next. regarding the setup quality, you prefer to seeing a larger size, as well the close ideally beyond current level ]
Yes! ...Well almost!.. lol

Even if it retraces it can still have momentum. It may just be taking a breather.

When a bar closes very close to the direction it's heading it's a very good thing. BUT, it's a snapshot of the market at that moment in time. The next bar or two can still be a run on of that momentum, no problems. So it's a valid set-up to play still for that short time. The momentum can continue on. Sometimes for many bars until we reach a major group of orders in the other direction. Of course.

Much later on though it's a different story isn't it?
5 or six bars later, if you are still waiting for the retrace of that first bar, you are mad. It could be a whole new group of traders working the market by then, and whatever caused the main move could well be all over.

As an example let's pretend we are looking at a 1-hour chart:

A bank may have been moving some money for a very large corporation in preparation for their overseas payroll. When it starts the job, it creates a BEarish Outside Bar on the 1 hour chart with it's first package of transactions.

As they continue on, the price trends down over a few bars. There might be a retrace or two within the range of those bars as they pause and wait for the market to come back to a better price for them.
The momentum is there as that bank (and other traders get on board) continues with the currency transfer in bursts. No problem. But later on in the day it's all over. That's why timing is important. The immediate bar afterwards is the strongest chance. If you miss the first entry and it's already on it's way, don't bother getting in late. ...There are too many good setups just around the corner to risk getting caught up late in a move that's probably close to being all done and dusted!

Quote:
Two.... is another independent setup off of the same level later on. Another pin or BEOB or whatever next week or something off of that 127.70 or so level again. This is where sellers came in, twice. [ chance still exists if price pullback into his short limit order level, exercise some patience to wait for unless price break another level, then a different story. ]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Quote End
Yes, you may get a double top etc. You might get another BEOB off of the same level at a much later date. Which is a good trade. OR as you said if we have broken through a major PPZ. We can now wait for a signal to get in on a retrace to that PPZ. ...IF a good signal comes along.

We wait for the best opportunities , we don't become obsessed with one chart and our preconceived ideas of where it may be heading.
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  #61226  
Old Apr 19, 2010 12:41pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post

But Jim's (James16) approach is making more and more sense the more times I see it. Or should I say . . the more confidence I am with it.

Thanks mate.


Jim
And the good thing about it is, you don't have to work at it. You just naturally get better at it all with experience. We've all learnt from each other here. Even James has said the same.

Speaking of, he must be due to drop in here again soon. lol
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  #61227  
Old Apr 19, 2010 12:43pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Here is a pattern I have tested on many, many charts and works well. It is a modified double inside formation "Dale's Double" and can be traded as a reversal or continuation. With as many posts as we have on J16, it may have been mentioned before but I know that it has not been mentioned very much. I wanted to share this with the group here. I trade it just like I would the Dale's Double and have had really nice success. Requires 4 bars.

K.I.S.S.
I like it man! Good job.
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  #61229  
Old Apr 19, 2010 12:49pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
australia! I would like to visit gold coast someday.
Good place. Marketed very well. lol

The gold coast is like where every one has moved to (it seams. lol ). So, as you can imagine, it's pretty good , but aaahhhh a little over burdened (???? lol), but there are some real magic destinations off the beaten track where there are a few less tourists and all the other crap that comes from being a popular place to live.

A bit further up the Queensland coast is awesome. And even below the Gold coast is great too. If you went to the gold coast you 'd have a good time, but a little more planning into branching out from there a little further would be worth your time too.
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  #61233  
Old Apr 19, 2010 1:06pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Hey Bundy! I'm glad that I could be of assistance to you. You know how much I appreciate and respect all you have done for me bro!

K.I.S.S.
You've pulled your weight too.
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  #61235  
Old Apr 19, 2010 1:13pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Your real estate market is disgusting.... It will be interesting to see when that bubble bursts. the big difference between Aus real estate and USA real estate is that you guys actually have a growing economy thanks to your neighbors to the north there manufacturing everything in the world.

Very cool place, besides the immigration. I understand the flood gates have been opened. Maybe another reason for real estate prices.
Real estate is over stimulated by government incentives for around ten years. They're idiots. (Both major parties guilty)
...Totally over-inflated.
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  #61240  
Old Apr 19, 2010 1:31pm
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Default SWISSY DBHLC 4hr

SWISSY DBHLC 4hr

I'm dead tired... (3:30am)
So I'll leave this one to the rest of you....

( I do NOT like entering when I'm this tired. Learnt from past experience. LOL)
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  #61269  
Old Apr 19, 2010 8:11pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Mike,

That is right along the lines of what I have been thinking. My main concern and what I have been fighting with is making the call if its worth it to see if it can break that first spot.

The problem I have is that I can usually tell right where price is going to go, and I feel like with that knowledge I shouldn't have to take any kind of loss, but if I go right to breakeven there is no room to breathe and I usually get taken out. Sometimes you have to pay to play and keep some risk open in order to find out if the setup will break through...
To add?

...Yep, the good ones, when they come along, make you think to yourself: "God DAMN!!! Why don't I just wait for these ones every time?! They're are so EASY to trade!"

They really stick out, because straight away you can see the size of the bar is significant , the location couldn't be better and there is a very comfortable distance to that first trouble spot you mention that let's you manage it real easy. You don't even feel any hesitation.
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  #61270  
Old Apr 19, 2010 8:17pm
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Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
is noosa gold coast?
Beautiful area of Australia, awesome beaches and weather.
Higher up the coast by a couple hundred Km.

This is what I'm talking about. Goldcoast is like the entry point for tourists, but all these less spoilt areas are within reach.
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  #61272  
Old Apr 19, 2010 8:26pm
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Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues View Post
lookin at that too. Also thinkin (hoping) there might be a PB forming on the daily. Also head and shoulders on the 4hr. Im not ready to trade 4hr but hopin for the daily.

But selling IF a daily PB forms is heading into quick support?
This is just the type of situation that Mike and Scott087 were talking about. ...You can see the indications that this is a valid signal, but the zone below it just makes it harder to pull the trigger.

It's these ones that can drive you mad when, in hindsight, they are the beginning of a long run. lol

The reason I drew the orange trend line was to show how the bar needed to be a little bigger to make it an automatic entry. Being tired, I still knew it could be better, and left it.
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  #61295  
Old Apr 19, 2010 11:29pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
precisely....


seriously, is there such a job????
i wont do it for money. i will do it for Scarlett... for life
where do i apply?
No screw it. She can pay me for it.
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  #61297  
Old Apr 19, 2010 11:36pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre
thanks,bundyraider,
of course, this will take me a whole lot of time to digest
is below usually your thinking process when analyzing and executing your orders?
No... Not at all. Don't stress!!

In the end you can go just on the visuals.

I personally think it's a good thing to understand, but I'm opened to the fact that you may not need to.

You could read what I said and take it all in and feel it, if you like. ...Then after that, just go about your business knowing one simple fact from it... "you don't enter a trade late."

Quote:
maybe, this is the reason why successful traders say trading is simple but not easy. I meant, there is much more than what I can think of, by reading your below explanation, I think I don't have the mind to visualize the scenarios alike based on my current level of understanding market movement. maybe another dimension of analysis to add.
No you don't have to.

Anyone in here who has been in here for a few years will tell you of how as they get more experience they actually have simplified what they are doing. And probably making more money from it too.
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  #61299  
Old Apr 19, 2010 11:54pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf
The Gold Coast is entirely comprised of old people in white shoes and drunk 17yo kids
That's what I was coding into the word "overburdened". LOL

And it's so busy now. It used to be an awesome place to get from A to B.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Is a typical quote you hear: "Real estate can not lose value! It's a great investement! Just look at the last 10 years!"
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjworley1952 View Post
over inflated ,that sounds familiar U. S.
Zzzzzactly.

Of course it could keep going for years why we 'smart' ones stay out of it, missing out. LOL
One day though, it'll have to return to fair value. Only more dramatically than it would have otherwise.
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  #61372  
Old Apr 20, 2010 12:59pm
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Originally Posted by Majestic12 View Post
Hi aserbx, was that a touch trade you took there? if not can i ask what trigger you used for entry.
Same same.

Few good reasons to take a touch if you played it right. (Very short term for me. I'm out at 38.2 line). I wouldn't even take the BUOB that printed afterwards. Fluffed the second of the two part order I planned, so very average gain this particular time.

(Jaroo will understand the double ppz lines. )

(Edit: Ok, sorry Majestic. You can ignore this. Just realised I had read your post wrong. LOL)
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  #61373  
Old Apr 20, 2010 1:03pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Bundy will like this PPZ level on the line chart at the Close, as I did.
See. Bloody good tool, eh?
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  #61434  
Old Apr 20, 2010 11:53pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Thats what I figured. Just never had it happen like that yet. Have watch some pairs get within 1 pip of SL and never trigger. Good thing it was only a demo, would have been ticked. Thanks for response.
Spooks,

Keep in mind that some dodgier brokers will use the bid/ask (both!!) prices to trigger conditional orders, while others will use the actual tape (executed) prices (which is easier to see on a chart).

I'm rarely greedy with my TPs now. When I used to try and keep my stops too tight I'd get caught out like with the dodgey hits like that. I find it's better to give better buffers.
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  #61436  
Old Apr 21, 2010 12:38am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Donkey welcome to our little thread :P

On my chart(which may look different then yours if you have a different daily closing time)....
Hey Mike,

...you missed the bars when you drew your trend line.
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  #61439  
Old Apr 21, 2010 12:55am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
rofl

dang I am still learning how to draw them
I know, I know. Don't have to hide it. We all understand mate.

I think beers good too!

It's the reason I get up every afternoon.
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