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james16 Chart Thread
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Mar 17, 2010 4:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relict07
I had a conversation with one of my friends.
He's an Affiliate Marketer and the basic concept of his business was to find a niche that's profitable and jam much money into it as possible until it dries up.
This is where the controversial part comes in. My friend doesn't have 1XXXXX Dollars like most Super Affiliates, so one thing he did was to sign up for 10 credit cards and dry them all up. I then asked if he was scared or not, but he wasn't because he was confident that his niche will profit. He ROI'ed 20%.
After my conversation, I started...
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whoa whoa whoa. I certainly can't give financial advice but this is crazy talk IMO. Borrowing money to trade and putting yourself into debt is one scary notion that can lead to some crazy psychological and financial issues.
Not my place, but certainly my beleif
Mike
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Mar 17, 2010 10:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skinfx
Hi All,
I have some question on trading pinbar. In my chart, currently there is a pinbar form, so how can i determine if it is a more reliable pin. Like if i play in a conservative way (break abv 10pt of pin then enter). But when i look at the previous pin in my chart, it also break but price retrace back up. So can anyone help to explain why you will not enter the first pin or u actually have a loss on the first pin, and is the current pin a good entry.... thank you..
skin
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Hey Skin
The first pin, although one I would not personally trade as at the time I would have wanted a bigger bar that pierced and tested what was above the prior time we reached the 1.0500 area, was actually not a loss. For those that take these smaller bars we have to think about where price is likely to go and what we will do as traders there(this will vary depending on your style). As you can see by my chart price went to this first area stalled out and turned around. So no surprises here(this is the key that we are never caught off guard). Now ones trading plan might dictate to take profit there, get to b/e, move stops down, do nothing. There are no hard and fast rules with discretionary price action trading.
As for the second bar, this is even smaller then that other one. To me shows very little strength. Remember it is not the bar alone that we must consider. Why would a pin form here that is strong enough to really carry us higher when the pressure is to the downside(see those big bearish bars). Now this areas we are approaching is a VERY good area to watch for PA, but we want the right kind of PA. My guess is if we do break higher we hit the first trouble area and bounce back down to retest 1.0500.
Hope this helps and again just how i see it 
Mike
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Mar 18, 2010 9:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arctos
Seeing the recent lack of good pins/BUOB/BEOB on daily, just thought...
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The 3 month grace period so to speak is all but a guideline. It gives a rough idea of something to give people a bit more structure to just throwing money around. If it takes you 4 or 5 no biggie. The ability to sit on your hands is HUGE my friends. B/c when it comes down to trading your method you develop you have to be flexible. Months will be good/bad and everything in b/w. Case in point I might have 20 trades one month and 8 the next. Now if I tried to be the same every month I would force trades and that would probably lead to disaster for how I trade. So it is the ability to sit on your hands b/w your good trades for your method that determine a large part of someones success in my eyes
Mike
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Mar 18, 2010 10:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GotPips
What do guys suggest to those who dont have access to their charts during the day?
I had last week off and was able to stare at my monitor the whole day and see PA happen. However, recently there hasnt been much in terms of PA on daily/weekly.
How do people manage this problem?
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I think those who are starting on the daily/weekly as per james need to watch more charts. Commodities, futures, equities, more forex pairs(don't fear those exotics :P ).
Nothing wrong with watching the lower timeframes if you have the time, chart time is always good. But keep your J16 minimum requirements demo on its own.
Just my thoughts of course
Mike
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Mar 18, 2010 10:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
Peso, anyone? 
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my little brother just flew to mexico today so he could use some
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Mar 18, 2010 10:29am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
No one will ever let you forget Mike. lol
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nope, no they won't LOL
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Mar 18, 2010 10:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Hey mike can you point me to that post.
.
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Nope , can't for the life of me remember anything about that sorry
I can remember every other post in this 3900 page monster tho
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Mar 19, 2010 11:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nawry
If I may, price went exactly where was supposed to go, PPZ at 1.535 and turned back, at this stage in my opinion some action should have place (b/e, moving stops..).
P.S. On my live account it was b/e for me, so winning trade :]
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Perfect!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=58423
Once we know these areas we won't ever be caught off guard by the market. This doesn't mean no losses, it means we develop our mgmt style around this.
My favorite posts are these Nawry b/c it shows you understand what James has taught
Mike
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Mar 19, 2010 11:41am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brb-Fraudin
I am seeing many people recommend this thread. Can anyone please help me and tell me how to use this thread to my advantage??
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Hey Brb
Welcome, definitely grab some coffee and start from pg 1. There are many useful links on page 1 including a "summary" of sorts from Josh. This won't help replace reading a lot of this thread(or at least James and the other seniors posts) but it will help introduce to you Price action, S/R and how James and others here have used it.
Best
Mike
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Mar 19, 2010 11:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Just in case not everyone knows this. The size of the bar in terms of pips doesn't mean anything. You just position size your risk accordingly when you choose how much "LOTS" or units to risk.
Just a few things to note.
Trading the James16's principals doesn't mean trading any possible PA bar. James always says be picky and look for great bars at great locations. For me I am trading mostly the daily and weekly with some guide lines of what I'm looking for.
Ben
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Excellent post Benji.
Notice how benji analyzed the story around each bar. The bars themselves are such a very tiny part of what we do. Size of bars, location, what is going on around, where is price likely to go? What am I going to do when it gets there? This is the thick of it.
Mike
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Mar 19, 2010 11:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s005606
Actually, why are all the majors vs USD pairs dropping like bricks all of a sudden? Any important news/event happened?
And will I be able to better prepare for such similar events from PA?
Again, apologies if my questions are stupid. Pls excuse the newbie here. 
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Hey Kris
The good thing is who cares!
It really doesn't matter to be honest. IMO it is getting late on a friday, markets thin out and you get profitt taking closing up for weekend etc. As for news? What is that
Mike
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Mar 19, 2010 12:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TitiX
Who are the one loosing money?
Once I find an answer, I should be able to progress further, for the moment it is still blocking my actions.
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Have you peered over to the public side of forex factory and then times that by a huge number
Most people even with a good method won't follow it b/c they can't control their emotions(this is what translates into the fear and greed of the marketplaces). Look at the biggest failing funds of the world. Find something you are good at and confident at and exploit it.
Mike
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Mar 19, 2010 1:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sakrani
Hi Guys
I have been lurking on this forum for a while, so I thought let's come out of the bushes and keep on trying and learning while sitting on the back bench from all the sincere people who are helping each and everyone on this forum regardless who they are and consider everyone on this fourm as a part of a big family.
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Welcome Sak,
Posting and getting involved helps the learning process in my opinion
Best of luck and post away
Mike
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Mar 20, 2010 1:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
very interesting actually. Thanks ppfx.
I am going to use it for a deeper research regarding money and trade management.
Interesting each system has a different risk/position size recommended. Nothing higher than 1% though. "ruin rate"?
Would be interesting to hear what Joel or Mike think about it...
http://www.hquotes.com/kelly.html
Ben
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Direct quote from the site
P.S. Our personal experience tells us that even you have a perfect trading system and calculations above show that you should invest up to 50% or more in a single trade, just DO NOT DO THAT! Don't tie more than 25-30% of your capital to any single trade despite any calculations! Don't be too greedy and then Mr. Market will reward you for your passion.
25-30% WHAT LOL
You are better off learning your system and what it produces and get a feel for the ups and downs. If anything run a monte carlo analysis on it so you can get a better idea of the types of potential equity curves that are possible(again this is all in numbers all things considered).
I am not saying every method doesn't have a more optimal risk. But that is a little bit tough to do with trading. Sure if you have a high winrate you can get away with some higher risk b/c you don't go through lots of losing streaks. but they DO happen. And when they do they can throw things for a tizzy. I think most people should start off with .5 -1% risk per trade learn their system and work for there. Most people should not be going near 2-3% risk like I normally see. I have no idea where this 2% risk per trade just became the standard I still wonder that hehe.
Mike
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Mar 21, 2010 1:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjuan1
Hi Everyone,
Ok its time for me to share my last year with everyone. I got into Forex about a year ago. One of the first forums I came to was james16. I read the whole forum and started using the methods taught here. In my first 3 months here I turned $75 into $1600. I thought I had found my retirement plan, but then I got cocky. I left the forum and thought to myself, I can do this without following all the rules. What is money management anyway? I don't need a budget for this....
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This is what makes it so freaking awesome 
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Mar 21, 2010 12:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
but the question is: purely applying J16 method what is more important in order of priority:
Location even if it is a C/T.
Being with the trend.
Thanks again to all contributors I will be honoured to join such a positive and successful family.
Cheers
Ogeid
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Hey Ogeid
There isn't really something more important then another. What I mean is that you can trade this stuff so many ways, but also mess those ways up. So location doesn't trump a C/T trade, nor does the opposite matter. It matters for that situation what things look like Someone who trades PA with the trend will get killed if they don't trade it at the right spots with the right PA. Just as someone trading C/T will get killed if they don't the same. And just the opposite is true if you do the right things at these spots. So I hope this helps. The C/T vs Trend comes up often, but I take a Great great deal of both. But I have learned what is worth trading at both of these spots vs the other.
Welcome to the thread and hope this helps
Mike
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Mar 21, 2010 12:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mp1983
Hello All,
Everyone talks about trading with the trend, the trend is your friend etc etc but one thing that used to confuse me was defining what the trend was. Then I went with what I considered to be the most simplest definition, if price is making higher highs and higher lows then the trend is up, if price is making lower highs and lower lows then the trend is down.
Based on this definition I am going to be looking closely with what happens with the EUR / GBP. Price is clearly making lower high's, swings 4 and 5 coming within 5 pips of each...
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I really am in keeping the school of thought as simple as possible. I define a trend as if price is going left to right on your screen it is sideways or choppy, from bot left to top right uptrend, and from to left to bot right is a down trend
That is all I do personally
Mike
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Mar 21, 2010 2:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I too am a little confused of this whole uptrend, downtrend discussion. The thing is, with your approach Mike, how many bars do you use? I could use 50, 100, 500 bars or I could be going back 2, 5, 10 months, 1, 2, 5 years....
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Hey Neutro
The way I post all my charts is the way I am viewing them also. That is about the range I am using the bars. Again trend is so relative to everything else that is going on at the time. So it depends. But basically speaking I am just looking at my chart as is to eyeball these things. It is the story as a whole that is more important then any one individual thing.
Best
Mike
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Mar 21, 2010 3:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
The story part I know. But you have to build it piece by piece.
Thanks Mike, there aren't a lot of people like you (plural, reffering to seniors) out there.
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yeah it is just hard to answer these more general questions without that caveat.
If you have specific chart questions those are always easier for me cause then I can explain it in context
Best
Mike
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Mar 21, 2010 8:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Hey fellas and ladies, I'm just going over some of my old trades and testing back through a few years data before the markets open and there is one thing that remains to ring true....
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I want through this too my friend
I think it really is dependent on the type of style/trades one takes. But for me it made a big difference. It was my measure of momentum.
Again for those in between realize that there isn't one right way, but these are the types of research that can make a very big difference in your own trading which ever way you end up.
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Mar 21, 2010 8:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfx
Hello everyone!
Thats my first post on FF although I've been following few threads for some time now. I've got to say that james's thread is very comprehensive, packed with loads of valuable information. Not to mention helpful people round here.
For start I'd like you to evaluate possible trade I'm looking for on AUDUSD. With a decent PA around 0.9300 level I'm inclined to short it with a stop above 0.9411 (11/2009 high).
Strong resistance level and descending trendline on daily could slightly tip the odds in my favor. What do you think?
Attachment 444120
I'd...
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Hey Bart
Welcome from out the shadows :P
I would say depending on what goes on up there, a short is possible. But be careful too that former trendline you have(the descending one) could act as support once price breaks and pulls back too it. I am more inclined overall to see that as one giant flag formation on a strong upward trending market that has just be in consolidation mode. But both scenarios are certainly plausible so we will have to see how it plays out.
As for your question about b/e trades. A b/e trade in terms of true stats is nothing more then never really existed. Meaning nothing happened so if you have 5 wins and 1 loss and 6000 b/e trades you really are winning 5/6 trades. Now that can be misleading b/c on another level a b/e trade can be a real win psychologically and also preventing many strings of potential losses. So it can serve a few purposes. But again winrate numbers are misleading on their own also. You can win 90% of the time and still be a losing trading and you can also win 20% of the time and be a winning trader. So the numbers by themselves are misleading without the full story.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 12:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
I am wondering if any of these potential PB setup is better than the others in terms of confluence strength. All 2 bars are the same relative to each other in each of these 4 setups only the BRN level is different (relative to the bars).
Is there an order we can rank them in terms of quality of setup or are they equally good?
Appreciate any comments.
Thanks.
CY
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Good question.
My favorite is the last one. This is b/c not only has price clearly tested the orders existing well through the round number, but it also gives you a basis to help move your stop. Meaning if price breaks the pin and retraces on you back again to the round number and doesn't start to reject down it usually gives an opportunity to cut out for a small loss. This is as key as the winners
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 12:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69
ciao everybody!
maybe Mike Nasir SupremeChaos Jaroo ...
and some others of you cannot remember me, I am a newbie, I asked for some advice weeks ago and got answered from you about how to start this "business" as Mr James says...
just finished two Pring books on TA and price patterns, read other books on MM and psychology, read the first 100pages of this thread, for sure must have a second "low passage" on almost everything but want to start looking at charts and demo according to Mr James MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS...
I know it is absolutely personal...
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Hey Andrea
Certainly is up to what is comfortable for you, but from experience once you have 2 monitors you will never go back to one, and once you have 3 you will never go back to 2 LOL. I have one station a PC with 3 monitors connected, this is my dedicated trading pc. I have all Dell widescreens. Another station has my laptop a Dell also connected to another dell widescreen, this is more my personal PC.
Dells are so cheap and quality these days and the monitors are real cheap too so you can always add
Best
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 3:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfx
It does indeed. Thanks very much for your reply.
Another thought on USDCHF.
Attachment 444668
Im considering long position on that pair if we get nice PA action around that area.
We've got confluence of:
- rising trendline on daily,
- BRN,
- 50% fib retracement.
Idealy I'd like to see PB through that level or BUOB as a "confirmation touch" with a stop below 62% retracement.
Am I getting it right?
Kind regards.
Bart
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Bingo Bingo Bingo 
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Mar 22, 2010 5:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjuan1
Does anyone else like this Pinbar trade? Also my first attempt at uploading chart. Bouncing off BRN and Fib.
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Not a bad bar, but lack of momentum would have me killing out of this trade. If that left eye doesn't hold this thing will probably fall right back down
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 5:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stockwalker
What does BRN mean? :$
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BRN = Big Round number.
I define it as every 500 pips on most pairs. Others define it as every 100 pips.
Best
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 5:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp
I have my eye on the daily bar for this pair as well, with 50% FIB and BRN, but unless it closes above the prior days bar I will not consider. Do you agree?
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Hey JCP
My daily closed and the close was very low into the prior bar like you are waiting for. This can be a sign of weakness, so this one doesn't do it for me against the huge downtrend. Just not enough confluence for me here. Could break and see 123 though
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 5:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonners67
Mike, couple of chrts for your view on.
First gold - continuation trade off good PPZ., through the 50 Fib and BRN.
Would you take it on the break of 1110, or not at all?
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Hey J
The bar is just way to small for me. Gold is really consolidating down, so this is an easy pass for me as I don't look at this as a reversal bar, just a more or less nothing day.
Best
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 5:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonners67
Even better PPZ, but dodgy pin. No fib or brn confluence, but with trend.
Seem to be lots of pins around today, but not all at great locations. Would you consider going short on the Loonie after running into to 10220 PPZ? No one seems to have considered the counter trade with the trend.
Thanks in anticipation. Looking to learn.
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Hey J
Again for both silver and usd/cad the size of the bars just don't give me much interest in them. Silver could see a small move up to 17.09 before having trouble and usd/cad just didn't close all that well and it is more at a swing low then a swing high we would want it at. It is bouncing of decent resistance but again size of bar doesn't interest me much but it could test 1.01
Again just my views of course 
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 6:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp
Thanks Mike, I have another quick question for you. You mentioned in a prior post that most of your BRNs are every 500 pips? This sounds interesting to me as I am trading daily and weekly and hitting BRNs seem to be very frequent. Would you mind expanding on this when you get a moment? Thanks!
Jacob
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Hey Jacob
This is something I adopted long ago. It accomplishes a lot of things. Firstly it keeps you from trading every 10 mins  . More importantly these larger round numbers are hit less, thus when price eventually makes it back to one it is going to generate both a lot of psychological interest as well as economic interest, and other things like barriers and tons of OF exist. Now this isn't to say the smaller round numbers are not important. They are very important, but more important for me in trade mgmt. Open any chart plot these numbers and then look at price around these areas. Remember to think of them as zones.
Best
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 7:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packhorse
Hi Mike,
Good advice here. What about the Yen pairs. What levels would you set these at please?
Regards
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Hey Pack
It is still ever 500 pips as well, the more important are even every 1000 pips on all the pairs
Mike
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Mar 22, 2010 9:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Hahahaha.... I trade Pins. 
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so that is what all this pin stuff is about, nice collection B
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Mar 23, 2010 12:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
This was a very nice H1 BEOB, with all the confluence that you can wish for, that turned further into a H4 BEOB..
Too bad I spotted it too late.
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very nice
I took this one . Notice the heavy consolidation followed by false breakout higher(with a very clear retest above that small range). Then we got a beob with a deep close forcing price no where but lower
Mike
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Mar 23, 2010 12:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjuan1
Up all night for 30 Pips and lose them in less than 45 minutes. Why must I create trades when there isn't one? Why do I feel the need to be in a trade all the time? Why can't I have patience? Why?? Why?? Why?????
Does anyone have a Sledge hammer I can barrow?
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Hey Mark
You need to mental snapshot this moment, this feeling. So next time the urge to trade arises you remember that its going to put you here if it isn't according to your ruleset. This is what I personally did it might sound weird. But it's like you can only beat yourself up so much. The good news is, YOU can get over it
Mike
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Mar 23, 2010 3:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
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buggy video, sorry for the spoiler
:P
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Mar 23, 2010 9:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damosdmf
anyone else notice this dbhlc on the eur/chf daily is this a good setup for a short?
damien
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Hey Damien
We really want to see that at a swing high traditionally as per james. This is a very deep swing low, the trend is heavy down which might carry this ahead, but often shorting into this new low can be very tricky if not under the right conditions. I would stick to that bar a swing high first before continuations.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 23, 2010 11:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Captain
Hey everyone,
I've been trading intraday for a while now using EO's method in the "Trade What You See, Not What You Expect" thread under Trading Journals (awesome thread for anyone wanting a wicked intraday strategy.)...
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Hey Cpt.
I am in agreement with the 5pm est. In my opinion it is sort of the unofficial official closing time. Considering NY is all done by now in the other markets. Again if you use a 6pm or even 7 I don't think your going to really lose much in the long run once you understand the material since the bars are only a smaller piece of the puzzle. I think anything past a few hours after NY is fishy as you get asia/Australia etc mixed in and those are the smaller periods of the trading day
Best
Mike
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Mar 24, 2010 12:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damosdmf
thanks mike yeah just checking new to this whole forex thing and still at page 150 of this thread. but have learned alot from it so far.
damien
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glad to hear that so far Damien 
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Mar 24, 2010 2:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I think this...
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hahah oh geez and I thought I needed more sleep
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Mar 24, 2010 12:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju
Hi all
My first post, new to the forum, been following J16 teachings here and I love the way it started back in 2005 as bar-formations and fib retracement teaching and now has evolved to concentrate on a better method, that is S/R and basic price action, mainly reversal bars/pins (seems fib retracement has taken a backseat to J16 price "flipzones" - which seems to be the right thing to do as fibs are a little bit "hope and pray" I feel). It's almost like everyone chipping in together over the years have managed to evolve the teachings of Jim...
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Hey Trig
You are correct there is no set standard. In fact I personally recommend to stick to the same timeframe you are finding the flip on. It cuts out a lot of the extra analysis that usually leads new traders to paralysis. So you see a daily price flip, look for daily price action. But yes many people will say look for a PPZ on the monthly, and PA on the daily/weekly. Or daily ppz, and then PA on the 4hr and 1hr. It really is all what you find the most comfortable. As for confirming the entry this is what we call confluence. It can be any number of factors. Fibs/Round numbers/Moving Avgs/Divergence/breakout patterns/etc. It can be any combo of those, some , all , none. As you can see there is a lot of discretion that takes place and over time with experience you begin to find the best for the individual.
Hope this helps a bit
Mike
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Mar 24, 2010 12:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Mar 24, 2010 2:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
Ditto what lovejoy said  . I stick to the timeframe I entered to manage my trade.
BTW, what is an "FTA"?
-- Danny
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a newer acronym for First Trouble Area :P
had to think about that one myself the other day
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Mar 24, 2010 3:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard
Do 95% lose?
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I have heard "they" have raised the statistic to 96%, spread the news
Hi there wiz 
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Mar 24, 2010 5:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrincoPrinco
Hi everyone,
I am new here.
Appreciate the great work.
Could anyone direct me to some message about how to trade i4b, i5b's?
Thanks,
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Hey Princo
I4Bs(like inside bars themselves) can be trade much like the other patterns here. By that I mean determining locations that would warrant for an Inside bar to work. Some people will place buy order above, and sell order below(known as a straddle with their stops on the other side). Others will pick a direction. For example if an inside bar is sitting on support you play it long only. These bars are showing consolidation and a shrinking in range. The more something shrinks the more it tends to break out and gain momentum(generally in markets).
Hope this helps a bit
Mike
Here are some more posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=164
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ar#post2382403
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Mar 24, 2010 11:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
I have a question.. two of the above charts will help me illustrate.
When going over price action trading on the daily charts there was one thing I could not figure out...
Moving your stop to BE as quick as possible....
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the quick and dirty answer is there is no simple answer to that, it comes down to YOU the trader. Someone literally just asked me about the same question 2 mins ago here was my reply
This is the BULK of it. This is usually the most difficult part for most. I think it is important to know the type of trader you are and ALSO what kinds of trades you are taking. The better quality set ups IMO are easier to manage, and also tend to move better. This doesn't mean you can just let them run forever and it is situational, but for the most part they seem to just run smoother. For example I am in the group where I analyze each trade and determine the best course of action. Sometimes it is a quick profit, but most times I try to find ways to reduce my risk at appropriate areas while still allowing my trade to work(if the type of trade is conducive to this). It is a balancing act. You have to find that which is most comfortable for you though. Some people are willing to take certain setups that I would deem less high quality but they realize this and get their stops to b/e quick.
Unfortunately there is no one solution that I can give you. This is the ultimate battle here that time and experience is going to tell you best. One thing I did was keep track of multiple exits for each trade I would take. This gave me a lot of data to work off while I would continue with my trading. In the end you can't have the best of all worlds. You will usually fall into a group of a high winrate, lots of small winners/losers and lots of b/e and the occasional runner. A lower winrate with more losses, but higher general reward etc. The problem I think is people try to do everything at once as opposed to finding a style and going with that.
So yes it is frustrating and I wish I could say, _____ do this and this and your golden. The thing is I can't. I think the best starting place is to ask yourself what school you are most comfortable in, and build from there. You will at the end fall some place that will feel entirely yours(and that is when you are there).
I hope this helps a bit but please feel free to bounce off more questions if I can help
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 12:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherry
Mike
Do you enter at the break of the 4th (smallest) bar? Or wait for the break of highs or lows of previous larger bars?
In fact with any IB in good location is it the break of the smaller inside bar?
I know some traders use the break of the larger preceeding bar so just wondered.
Thanks,
Cherry
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You can really do either, but the j16 way is playing a break of the actual inside bar itself, this is what I do as well.
Best
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 12:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thierry
Hello everyone.
I'm following this threat for 2 months.
What do we think about this 4h pin? on daily we get divergence. (my opinion)
Sorry if this is not right, i'm total newby en new to this.
Thanks for a great support!
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Hey Thierry another new face too welcome
I would not personally use divergence from the daily to find trades on the 4hr, but that could be a personal thing. With that said though, the move down has been REALLY strong and that bar is really small. So we don't want to try to pick the bottom with these small pins, we will get a slap in the rear many many times. Look for the bar that stands out vs the strong down moves and that is the bar that will be a high probability bar(through in some confluence and you will be just fine :P )
Best
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 12:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
What I mean is if it is standard J16 to also keep a lookout for PA to "prove that PPZ is still providing resistance" (i.e signal to go short). Maybe a BEOB off that PPZ level could be taken as a signal to enter short?
Hope I am not confusing you
CY
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Hey CY
Yes it is both ways are valid to look for. You will find what is most comfortable for you as well as you go along here
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 1:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
watching this trade like a hawk, not going to be a full bar loss thats all i know
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'hey me too dude 
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Mar 25, 2010 1:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
actually wanted to call u out on this trade as i knew u would be all over it (BRN)...lol
did u take full profit @ 1.5905 bar lows or waiting for 1.5865 area, im sure u probably wont wait for the break.....
if it does break..its free free freeeeeeeeeeeee 
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The green line on my chart is where my take profit still is. Since this one is in a lot of traffic be more conservative with it here
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 6:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sergpato
HI Guys,
I like many others have been following the work of James and it has been great for me and I have got nice results. However, I have a question. How I would manage the news with this method or I wouldnt have it present when I take a trade.
Thanks for your comments
Sergio
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Hey Sergio
Most of us completely ignore news
Yep you heard it forget about it. I don't pay attention to it except the really big ones like NFP and SOME interest rates(if the markets are really shakey).
But James says "I avoid the news like the plague". And most people think they have to include the news and it just over complicates something that is actually more simple
Best
Mike
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Mar 25, 2010 6:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar
You know Mike, I'm totally getting what you mean about the open forum having become a circus...
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hehe yep, I peek out once and awhile, but I prefer civil people who want to learn and give out respect
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Mar 26, 2010 12:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju
Benem
I understand the idea of "cool down and take your time" but here's the thing: from looking at the charts, I cannot see why daily/weekly is better than, say, 1H. The patterns are the same, the PPZ work, the PA works, I'm not trying to rush into profit like a fool only to lose, I have lost over ?30,000 in the past, believe me I know about losses. What I mean is waiting for daily/weekly setups takes a long time, waiting for 1HR takes a short amount of time, across multiple crosses you will get a signal every couple of days easily, and they...
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Hey Trigger
Just MY person views below.
The idea is not to NEVER go down to lower timeframes, but starting out there most people can't make correct decisions fast enough, can't control themselves, and all the other things that a trader needs to have (patience, discipline, control of greed etc) to give themselves a chance to become the trader they want. I have seen too many people come and go b/c they don't give themselves a chance to be here in the long run. By learning to do this on the higher timeframes you are first of learning that it isn't about trading. In fact it is about waiting. You learn how important it is too wait, and also what it is like to be a winning trader. How it is not quanity , but quality. And how a few good trades CAN build any size account. Will you always stick to that timeframe? Maybe, maybe not. THat really isn't the true point of it. The point is to get to the point where the options are endless and the process to be profitable is understood.
As for R:R. Truly it is meaningless. It comes back to win % risk and all those other things. Be it you win 20% of the time and have a huer R multiple, or you win 90% of the time and have a small R multiple. I have tracked all of the above for my methods and they can work in so many different ways. That is a forex cliche that only goes so far once you know the actual numbers of your system. Making money is making money.
Again these are my beliefs after years and years now, and seeing so many traders go through the different stages. The journey you take IS entirely yours of course. But if someone is not a profitable trader(this is in general) and those that have been through it are giving what they feel will help with that curve, it might be good advice to try. At the least put whatever you do through the demo phase to see where you are at after 3-4 months, this will help the confidence part at the very least.
Again just my views!
Take care
Mike
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Mar 26, 2010 12:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PutaMadre
Hei guy's think this time get it how pin bars looks like... One on Aussie and another one on Looney weekly TF(inverted corellation).....
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Hey PM
Yes you are getting close here, but firstly zoom your charts out much more. Being that zoomed in is going to skew the bars and we must remember it is all about location, not just the bar itself. Your first bar although very zoomed in would technically be a pin, your second one would be a neutral bar. A neutral bar shows indecision in the market place and has an open and close near the middle of the bar with equalish "tails or noses" from both ends. Look for the bars like in the charts below. They smack you in the face.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Mar 26, 2010 12:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi everybody,
I would like to post this one.
I understand there is not of space above but it could make up to 100 pips.
The support level 1.585 has been rejected several times.
Any thoughts ?
Thanks
Ogeid
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Hey Ogeid
I am a bit confused on your question. Are you asking if that last bar is a pin? If so(and I may have missed your question here) this bar is not a pin. Remember just because we see a long nose or tail, doesn't mean a bar has the characteristics of a true pin. The open and close must be within the prior bar.
I may have totally missed your question though
Best
Mike
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Mar 26, 2010 3:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju
Mike
Thanks for a great reply. When you say you have tested risk reward ratios and realise they are only good "in retrospect" so to speak, and that making money is making money, are you saying that in fact a scenario like a pinbar at a great PPZ with a 100 pip stoploss and a potential 30 pip until the first take profit zone IS in fact a good trade we should be taking, and just ignore the RR ratio? Should we just look for these great high prob setups and let them get to the area we know they should get to, then manage trade from there? (eg: go...
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Hey Trigger
This is in a sense what I am saying. But the overall story is more important. What I mean is I never have any idea for the most part going into a trade what my R:R is. I simply take GREAT trades(note the great part) that fit my method and then manage the trade. I come out with 2R sometimes, and I also come out with .2R sometimes. Once you are comfortable with the way you trade the profits do indeed take care of themselves. So sometimes I set a target and it might be .5R, or sometimes I trail out and it might give me 1R etc. There is no set thing. Most people get so hung up on that and forget to ignore when something good is happening. What type of trader you become is entirely up to you. You can win 90% of the time and be a losing trader, and you can win 20% of the time and be a winner trader. The reverse is also true. It is the WHOLE of your trading vs that specific individual trader which doesn't tell you anything more then that trade alone. So if you took 15 trades a month, and win all of them but one. Your loss = 100pips (figure that equals 1% of your account), and your 14 wins equal 30 pips or .3% of your account. Is that a winning trader? I hope you are seeing my point that you don't have to put yourself into this mathematical box. If the market offers a good opportunity that fits your method you are going to want to capitalize on it. This WILL mean different things for different traders. So you don't need to define yourself that every trade I take I must make 2R and every trade I lose 1R. THat trader that does that can still be a losing trader, just as they can be a winning trader. It comes down to trading well according to your method and the profits will come as a result.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Mar 26, 2010 3:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chatzi
So is someone like Dante a special case of someone who is gifted?
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Chatzi, no one is saying there aren't 100 different ways to make this work. What were saying is that why not give yourself a chance and be in it long enough to make it work. How many people here are losing traders, trading real money still even though they are losing? A LOT. WHY? b/c people refuse to step back and do things the easier way. Yes I said easier. B/c losing money isn't easy. How many people are willing to put their egos aside and trade demo for 3-6 months while they learn something that works. "I can't take it serious with demo" and all those lines are pure BS. This is from someone who NEVER demoed. I didn't even know what demos were back in the day when I was learning. I am just giving my advice from dealing with a lot of people and trading for a long time now(and still not even half of the big guy). So can you certainly never go above the hourly and make it. Of course. I will simply say as a very general statement. If what you are doing isn't working, trying something else may give you that chance to make it work. Aquire the tools smartly, and then learn to apply them as your own tools.
The whole point of it IMO goes beyond the trading part. It digs into giving one the tools to be successful in whatever route they end up choosing.
HEAVY stuff for a Friday for me. Most know my brain is about shut off now
I appreciate all you that work so hard at this cause I know what that is. You can't lose that fire, that is for sure.
Mike
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Mar 27, 2010 1:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju
thanks for your reply, so then for you it's about speed of price movements, not about statistically better setups.
This i what I'm trying to get to the bottom of: either J16 followers trade larger frames because they can't/wont trade speedy charts OR larger frames are statistically "better" setups.... I fail to believe it's both, it's one or the other. For you, it's the first reason, not the second, thanks for sharing.
Anyone else agree/disagree?
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Hey T
The higher timeframes are NOT more accurate. It is all about good trades. If you take a bad trade on a higher timeframe its still a bad trade, if you take a good setup on a lower timeframe it is a good setup. Everything is about context of the trade. I am not going to repeat again why I still believe people should start on the higher timeframes. Just demo whatever is comfortable for you at the very least. That process is very important.
Hope that clears it up
Mike
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Mar 27, 2010 1:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp
In fact, I'm not going to loath my job, I am actually one of the lucky few who really enjoys what I do, so what's the rush?
Thanks to all here who have contributed so much,
Sincerely,
Jacob
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Awesome Jacob thanks for sharing your story. You are right there is no rush and we have to let it take however it long it takes. Many people come into it wanting to trade for a living but realize it makes much more sense to trade and build a nice account while keeping your job and just building some more financial security into our lives that we don't want to give to some joker to try to trade for us.
Thanks again
Mike
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Mar 28, 2010 3:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ppfx
i have a question. does anybody know why i dont have an oil chart on FXPro ?? i had it before but then it disappeard  first i found it under the name CLGO then CLHO but now i cant find it! 
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Hey pp
Right click in the market watch box and then click SHOW ALL. This will put them all up for ya
Mike
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Mar 29, 2010 4:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
This BUOB is looking good off a PPZ and nice size.
If it can stay above 1.2900, it looks good to me.
Anyone seeing this? Comments?
-- Danny
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Just thought I would throw up a chart with the first trouble area to add to your analysis. I would have liked to see a lower low on the BUOB itself personally. But some tight mgmt on these and they can be great still
Best
Mike
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Mar 29, 2010 4:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
Thanks for the chart Mike. Why the lower low? Does the quality of the rejection improve the deeper it goes into the PPZ?
Thanks neutro, considering the FTA and the spread, this could get dicey to manage.
-- Danny
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When you get those really deep lows/highs on outside bars it shows a real solid test of the orderflow underneath our areas. So if you pick the right area, get a very solid test and rejection that is some major sign of where price is going. I am picky with this stuff but those little things have helped me along the way. As for spread 20 is insane I saw that when I was making a video once, and I can't even figure that one out. Could be time for a new broker or at least another to trade certrain pairs.
Mike
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Mar 29, 2010 11:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
Agreed.
Isn't a wedge the same as a pennant? I think Mike trades those as well.
I think they are a great sign of consolidation, and typically lead to nice breakouts in my experience.
Just my opinion.
Cory
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Yes I sure do trade them as breakout patterns with pullbacks and PA. Like anything else its about location, look, and how you trade them.
Mike
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Mar 30, 2010 12:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TGpop
cut down to 10 pairs as they are all correlated...
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nonono sorry. Have to jump in here. Just b/c you have 4 xxx/jpy pairs and they are correlated in general, doesn't mean it is exact. Far from it. Signals will still appear on one, especially with different price movements, and locations that may generate a signal on one vs the other. And even if they all generate similar scenarios one maybe be better then other. Benji is doing the right here watching as many markets as he can get his hand on.
Best
Mike
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Mar 30, 2010 1:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990
....WOOW....
congrats for your numbers
being an member from 2005 till now, thats a lot of time spend through FF
chears!!
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hehe his posts are way more then that. All us old folks lost most of our posts at one point they cut the number in like half. Makes us look less lame 
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Mar 30, 2010 3:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghettobuddha
Anybody in this one?
4hr pin off the 140 BRN.
Bounce off the 365 EMA
Downward Divergence
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This one is too small for me personally, but just watch that previous high around 139.60 for first trouble area
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 2:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Hi all,
This is my first post in this thread although I've been reading the JDuester summary posts (all a few times now) and am currently up to page 45 of the main thread. I've been demoing this method for about 3 weeks now and just starting to get the hang of it - and loving it  I hope it's not too soon to post an opinion on a setup I've seen that I notice is also being discussed here.
Here goes - I took the daily outside bar on EURUSD as well, however I just looked at the weekly chart and notice last week's candle looks like a pin bar. Would...
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Hey DD
That bar is not a pinbar. Remember the open and close needs to be within the prior bar. And we want to insure that the nose of the bar is much longer then the body of the bar thus protruding away.
Welcome to the thread 
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 2:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bollocks
question for all the old timers....
is there such a thing as a 2 day bullishbearish outside bar?
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Hey Bollocks
By the nature of the outside bar it must engulf the previous bar so it is a 2 bar reversal pattern. But if you technically make your chart into a 2 day chart, then you would simply be looking for the same 2 bar pattern now on the 2 day chart. Thus you would need 4 days of bars to accomplish the 2day , 2 bar pattern :P
I know I prob made that sound like a riddle
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 2:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bollocks
nope, makes perfect sense.. just wanted some confirmation on that...
by the way Mike... have you taken any setups off the dailies lately... been a bit dry.. i am thinking of demoing 4 hour for few months although i prefer the dailies. sitting on your hands while you trying to grow an account isnt at all easy
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my bread and butter is definitely the 1hr and 4hr, and I am even more strict on the daily and weeklies. So haven't had many there. I believe 2 daily trades all year so far.
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 2:50am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S
Mine were stuff like multiply 36 by 78 which I could do farily quickly, but when it got to the hundreds and thousands, I was taking far too long (she wanted me to answer in around 10 seconds) .... I believe this was for a floor trader position however.
Tell me though, is this capability really that important?
.
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my friend had to just play a round of golf for his position at one of the top funds in the states
but seriously, it varies, its sometimes what you know, sometimes who you know(more times). The good thing is for us who want to trade our own accounts we only need to answer to one person(maybe 2 if your married).
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Mar 31, 2010 2:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BWise
So do you still plot PPZ on your charts or just your 1000/500 pip zone increments?
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I don't plot much of anything on my chart just cause I pretty much can see it either way. I know the BRNs are PPZs(zones remember), and once I am in trades i tend to focus in on closer more minor zones, other rd numbers etc. I am aware of other major areas of s/r, things like double tops, breakout formations etc
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 2:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bollocks
i think i might demo 1 or 2 pairs and see how it goes..do you do anything different off the hourly than you do off the daily..i assume you only take A grade setups..
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nope not really to be honest, just by the nature of a daily timeframe less bars then you get on a 4hr and 1hr respectfully
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Mar 31, 2010 12:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I understand, you thought the momentum of the setup (due to its size, 365 and 125.00 BRN confluence) would cut through that "minor" traffic. But the traffic on the setup is equally important.
Don't get me wrong, these setups will work at times, but I have found that it they don't break hard and continuous . . . let them go and cut it quick.
Or the best approach is to pass on them altogether. A wait for one that meets every criteria.
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Also to add to this if I may. That pinbar although by proxy shows very weak momentum for the bears. A strong close is very crucial IMO and why I never play proxy pins(IMO tougher to play). A strong close off this area could hav given a much stronger signal that the bears were acrtually wanting to shor thtis market. Instead price only bumnped up on the round number and stalled rather then sold off. This is crucial. It is not uncommon for price to ever stall at any round number like this, but the key is to decipher if it is TRUE selling vs just profit taking, or weaker selling. Notice how the pin doesn't close within the prior bar and also how it sits low. Meaning the high of the proxy pin is only barely coming over a prior high that is 6 bars back. At the same time all the other xxx/jpy pairs were simply stalling out minimally also rather then any true sign of weakness.
Just my thoughts
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 1:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan
Well, this one has been mentioned a few times lately. I'm long since that bullish pin and at present I have my full TP just below 127.00.
I decided to take a look at the monthly chart and I could find a possible 2 months pin forming at an interesting location.
Anyway, just some thoughts about what we could be facing next (not guessing  ).
Nos
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very nice sir this is what I try to do  Then you just react
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Mar 31, 2010 3:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
that really sucks man..... that was an A+++++ setup in my opinion... I cannot believe how it acted!
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Just to give the flip side as an opposing view for those out there. My view yesterday was that this wasn't a great swing high(ie traffic didn't put in a nice retrace). Location of the rd number was nice with previous support there but the bar itself was small, and only engulfing one bar at such a deep swing low doesn't present enough info in and of itself.
Again that doesn't mean it doesn't fit into yours or anyone elses methods. Just thought I would give a different take since there were a lot of people asking me about it yest.
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 4:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
That's interesting.... I just see it as we have had these opportunities exactly the same as this one in the recent past (break+retrace to BRN+PA in a very strong downtrend), and now this one failed miserably. I'm lucky to have not gotten into the trade I guess. I did note the bar high to the left, and that was why I placed my order a bit lower than I would normally tend to do.
I would say this was a big confidence killer in my trading pursuit here....
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No way dude! The fact you placed your sell lower and didnt stick to a fixed rule tells me your further along then you might know! That should be a confidence bulder. Again your analysis isnt necessarily wrong and mine right. It comes back to the trader and mehod. So I hope you take this as a good thing and those out there who always ask about buffers can see why I dont have a fixed buffer also.
Best
mike
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Mar 31, 2010 5:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Profit
2 daily trades all year Mike? Doesn't fill me with confidence that one of the daily trade trainers has only taken 2 daily trades this year, and his bread and butter is the hourly and 4 hourly.... 
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Well that really isn't the fully story. Over the years I have simply got more picky on all things trading. But that doesn't take away from what learning to trade of the dailies and weeklies does for someone. Learning patience, developing an actual method, instead of just trying to watch every chart for pinbars etc. I always mostly traded 1hr and 4hr, but I can see now looking back how much benefit one can get from starting slow and being real picky. I wish I could tell myself that 5 years ago lol. Even with watching 1hr/4hr/daily/weekly I still only took 6 trades this month. How many people would do that watching the 1hr and 4hr without really understanding their method. I would say 6 trades in th first week for most :P
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 5:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrincoPrinco
Your input is always much appreciated mate. I am still on that trade by the way. Avoided SL by 5 pips. 
I have been reading this forum for 5weeks and demotrading for 3 weeks . I had 8 trades.All daily charts and all winners.A little too lucky maybe. My deal was to TP half of the position at fta and move the stop to breakeven. And they all went to first fta then stopped out. But this one single trade my take all my profit.
With all that being said what would you suggest me to do. Am I being unpicky. Also say yu took that trade, where would you...
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Well its hard to say too much based on just this alone. The question is if you are moving your stops/ taking profit quick(ie a high hit rate trader) then you can't be taking full bar loses on trades like that euro. It doesn't have to be one or the other. That would be my best piece of advice in regards to this. So if I had to take this trade I would have killed it above that 4hr small pin or at the least that next 4hr bullish bar saving more then half a loss. I do this even with my really good trades that I cconsider A+. It is a balancing act for sure but you will find your medium.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 5:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Experience is the best teacher brother. Being picky is the best way to not allow the teacher to spank ya while you're learning...or something like that lol
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mike are you having trouble keeping your hands to yourself again 
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Mar 31, 2010 5:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Hey Mike I was looking at this pin on USD CHF. After thinking about it I am not going to take it just out of being unsure with it . Just wanted to know if you would look at this as a TP bar late in the day. It is kinda large but equal or lesser thant the few preceding bars and it isnt sitting the best on the RN. Not much room IMHO either. Just wanted to know if you were looking at it. Thanks
Attachment 449744
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Those down bearish bars are too strong vs that size bar for me. This might very well give some pips, but the pressure is to the down size rather then this being a reversal. That "feeling" you have will eventually materialize into something you see time and time again(as it does for everyone). These bars I find easy enough to pass on no matter what ends up happening.
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 5:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
That's where I still struggle.
I find it difficult separating between cutting losers short vs killing trades too early when you get a bit draw down and then it runs in your favor. I guess it's because you can never know what going to happen next for sure. lol.
I tended to follow James advice and cut my draw downs fast, but then figured that long term it wouldn't pay off. So I lowered my risk per trade and made a rule of not doing anything no matter what till price hits my first trouble area or my SL.
I also came up with the though that James cuts...
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Time and experience my friend. I do a little bit of everything. I try to evaluate each trade as its own and determine the best course of action and that even can change during the trades. This is why we have different types of traders here. It comes down to YOU. But a good thing I found is keeping track of multiple mgmt techniques. For example last year I documented my trades as if managing them very tight(my win rate exceeded 90% and my R multiple decreased greatly). Why did I do this? Simply because I wanted to see and also be prepared for the day that maybe I do change as a trader and my account is so large like James that having a 70% win rate isn't good enough anymore. So for me its about taking great stats and letting things develop(which is where there is no subsititue for time and experience). I wish I had a better concrete answer for you . The good thing Benji is you are so close that you won't even know it until a long time passes and you can actually look back.
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 7:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikki
Hey Mike,
Do you apply serveral mgmt techniques in one account? or you separate different techniques in each account?
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Hey Ikki
Everything is done on my one account. The mgmt part is simply another aspect of my trading.
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2010 11:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
Hey Mike,
Don't you mean " and only engulfing TWO bars..............."?
I attached Dan's chart again with the 2 bars marked with orange arrows prior to the BEOB.
I just wanted to make sure I am in synch with your thoughts.
Thanks.
CY
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Hey Cy
on my chart you can see it is just one prior bar. But your chart gives a better view of what I was saying in words. Your bar although a BEOB by definition has a more neutral look(with a slight bear bias) in my mind then anything
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 1, 2010 1:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
What's Proxy???
.
Thanks.
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a proxy bar is a bar that uses not the previous bar but some other bar to be contained within. So a true pinbar has the open and close within the prior bar, but a proxy pin may have its open and close within a bar that is 20 bars back, or 3 etc. The idea is that proxy bar is containing the pin and going to act as important piece to price making its way higher or lower
Mike
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Apr 1, 2010 3:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djmanu
Hi guys,
What do u think of these Daily Pinbars, off strong PPZ & Round Nr if they close as actually ?
usdchf (very strong PPZ off RN 1.05)
chfjpy (Pin has better shape off 90 RN but not as strong PPZ)
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my opinion would be that the chf/jpy would have to close much lower then where it is now(lower close then the open) otherwise it would have a funky look that wouldn't be convincing. And for usd/chf even if it closed higher then where we are now it would look weird as the nose didn't protrude that far away from the previous low. Not seeing either wouldn't be playable, but would have to be babysat IMO. I think we close as neutral bar on usd/chf and chf/jpy closes as a lame weak pin if anything.
Just my 2 cents, but I didn't get much sleep last night LOL
Mike
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Apr 1, 2010 5:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp
Anyone touch trade CHFJPY as it came within 2 pips of 90?
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yeah this would have been a deadly one. One of these days I am going to put some more time into this touch trading round number business 
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Apr 1, 2010 10:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock
can someone explain whats touch trade ? btw, i did watch the chart go up and sown on CHFJPY. it moved up and down 200 points in 5 minutes (100 up and 100 down).
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A touch trade is simply selling/buying at a predetermined area without waiting for PA. So if we looked at chf/jpy and saw the 90 area had a lot of resistance you could place a sell limit up near that area and have a set stop(fixed or otherwise) and trade S/R like that
Best
Mike
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Apr 2, 2010 1:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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phewww I slept in extra late and was hoping you all did the same
Just wishing everyone a very nice long weekend!
Mike
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Apr 2, 2010 3:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I dont take many weekly setups...but decided to take this setup on SGD/JPY on Monday. BUOB over PPZ and BRN, moved to BE @ FTA and about to take half profit and move other half to just under FTA.
Normally, when I see a setup like this I will scroll down the lower time frames and wait for some PA to confirm the move and thus can get in with less risk and more potential reward...but this is not a pair I look at intraday (I have a hard enough time focusing on the pairs I do without adding another one to the mix!) so happy to take the weekly setup....
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Nicely done here LJ
The key I am always thinking no matter what type of bar or location is to always be trading AWAY from the PPZ rather then into. That has saved me the most over the years. Makes it much more difficult to manage into them.
Best
Mike
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Apr 3, 2010 2:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Thank you for the explanation.. So the primary importance of Pinbar is where it is located..
Just like real estate slogan - Location, Location and Location. then look at the house condition..
In the same way, first look at where it is located.
Swing high or swing low ?
At or close to PPZ?
Then look at the characterstics of the Pinbar.
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bingo 
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Apr 3, 2010 3:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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gonna get this up in the guest area, but figured since its going to be a holiday weekend I would post it here as well
Here is a video I made a few weeks back on a question about What is Traffic and Space
http://drop.io/hyeomjn
Have a nice weekend all
Mike
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Apr 4, 2010 1:23pm (30 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Hey CY,
im not the best to give an insight about this but..
u may be overanalyzing it &
i think your 4 points above will not be achieved by most people;
since everyone is unique..
some will risk 1%/others above 2%,
some will care about R:R, others wont,
win rate may be +/-80%,
& trades per month will vary
also, (like i told Scotty2Cues in his thread) it would be best to concern yourself more about trading well (or learning to trade well) than focus on how many pips u can make.
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yep supreme is right here, focusing on the what can be is time wasted IMO. You have to learn to develop your style and these things will take care of themselves. Depending on the individual 2% a month could be amazing, or 10% could be considered amazing, and everything in b/w and around. But IMO that leads to more distracting then good(for the trader that is not profitable). Someone could be trading and making 3-4% a month, and say "this isn't enough for me" so they start over trading, or increasing risk etc. Instead of realizing the true strength and power of what this will do for your account. Too many variables and I could think of reasons to find someone on every curve of those variables.
Happy holidays all
Mike
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Apr 4, 2010 1:24pm (30 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
So sorry to anyone that got offended and to you Mike because I have posted this in your face.
Happy Easter to you.
Ben
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dude you couldn't offend me if you tried 
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Apr 4, 2010 1:27pm (30 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smallkuku
i know this is a forex thread.. but i know james16 trades futures as well... does he trade them on the daily and 4/hr timeframe?? i understand futures trader trade by the tick... so most of them trade the less than 5mins chart..
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Hey Small
Yes James trades them from the tick(I forget the exact number 2000 maybe) all the way to the weekly timeframe. It still comes down to position sizing depending on the contract. Obviously some markets take a lot more money account size wise compared to the forex market which has the most flexibility for granularity.
Best
Mike
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Apr 4, 2010 1:43pm (30 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan
Hi Mike,
What do you think of the weekly USD CHF chart?
Would you say it is a valid pin bar off valid support (Fibs and RN)?
Thanks
P
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Hey P
This one has a more neutral bar look(with the open and close towards the middle) to me then a real true pin(even though this is yes still a pinbar). The support is nice, but the bar is too sloppy for me. It is in a lot of traffic(see video just posted) meaning that if someone does take this that previous weeks high is the first trouble area and could give this trade trouble.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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Apr 5, 2010 1:14pm (7 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ira
I am sorry folks if this has been already discussed, but I saw recent posts about brokers and decided to ask my question, which bothers me a lot lately.
From time to time I hear talks that small accounts, let's say up to 50 000$, are not led into a real market. So, you are basicly trading with the broker, or better say - against the broker. When you are losing money it's ok, but when you start trading profitable for months, here the problems begin: like deleting deals from the history, spikes etc. I have even heard that some brokers have black...
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Hey Ira
It really just depends on the type of broker you are with. If you are with a dealing desk then your broker is on the other side(in a manner of speaking), and if you are with an ECN then you orders are matched up with other clients. If you stick with the bigger well known names that have been around the block for sometime you are going to be ok for the most part. I hate recommending brokers b/c it is a very personal thing, but that is my advice. Most broker complaining you hear about are with no name bucketshops or people who are just losing in the FX market due to their own non-due dilligence and then complain that it is the broker(ex market orders in a fast market).
Best
Mike
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Apr 5, 2010 1:16pm (7 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
...Alright.... Where is he? 
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haha lets do this
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Apr 5, 2010 3:01pm (5 hr ago)
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
Congratulations James16 and everyone involved with this great thread! I am extremely grateful for everything I've learned from this thread, James16, and all of the other regular contributors.
What a great place to learn, let's keep it going another 1000.
Cheers!
Cory
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Unreal stuff, can you imagine the look on Jims face if on pg 1 2005 you said this would hit 7+ mill views and 4000 pgs? He would have laughed so hard
I love not only what there is to learn here, but also what this thread represents on how people should deal with other people.
Congrats big guy
Mike
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