|
|
|
james16 Chart Thread
 |
|
|

Jan 22, 2010 12:42pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ezzy
Hi
I am sure this has been answered before (probably more then once). What does Jim and other J16 seasoned traders recommend regarding leaving trades over the weekend.
Many thanks in advance.
|
I am fine with holding trades that are far away from my stop loss over the weekend. For example I am holding my eur/aud trade and my stop is at b/e 100 or so pips away. Gaps do happen over the weekend though so sometimes closing and reopening and paying the spread is worth it. I tend to do that more with yen pairs more or less
Mike
|

Jan 22, 2010 2:51pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PippingMama
Hi Mike,
I played the break of the BUOB on EURAUD but market seems pause at the break for so long. I decided to closed the trade with few pips profit. Just don't want to wait over weekend and any unexpected happened.
If next week open, will you consider playing the weekly pinbar on the EURAUD? Also, do you think I close the trade today is wise move?
Thanks!
PM
|
Hey PM
I got in on the 4hr so I have some more room to play with now. I think the daily play is fine and still in fine shape. I wouldn't be getting in and out cause that isn't my style. I definitely would not get in based on the weekly. To me the A+ was the 4hr, A- the daily.
Best
Mike
|

Jan 22, 2010 2:54pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dobe_r_man
PM:
Don't mean to jump in here (Sorry Mike), but I would say this:
* If your plan was to close out the position if price didn't reach or
maintain a level then I would be Ok with that.
The wording you used to describe why you closed the trade sounded fear based (as in I am worried about the weekend, what if it gaps, etc...etc...) and you sounded unsure. I would like it much better if you said you closed it out because it hit a Stop Loss or profit target or some other defined reason vs. "feelings".
In other words, have a plan ahead of time...
|
Don't apologize for sharing your views! They are spot on
|

Jan 23, 2010 2:46pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by alifari
Hi,
Firstly I would like to thank everybody in this thread for their contribution. I am practising J16 Method since last 8 months on both live and demo accounts and last couple of months, I have been doing pretty well. Although, I don't post much due to my busy schedule.
Here are my trades for this week. Most of these trades are based on J16 Method.
Thanks once again.
|
nicely done 
|

Jan 24, 2010 1:53pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naijafx
You guyz are wonderful!
Honestly, visiting this thread makes my work easier!
I am a trader who have blend all that i have learnt to trade but most importantly, they must be at PPZ(i dont joke with that) and i skillfully trade this, mostly using reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, might be waiting longer or missing out but with better R:R
once again, thanks to my teacher while i was in PF mike(my name sake) and jarro(who i have been tracking right from DIBS days) and to the grand master J16.
God bless you all
Mike F
|
Good to see you Mike 
|

Jan 25, 2010 2:07pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghettobuddha
Hello Mike and fellow J16ers,
Been busy working, havnt had time to look at charts. Don't know how many of you remember me, but I'm kinda back.
Anybody watching this? Looking for PA to give me a short.
|
Hey Ghetto
Course I remember you  how ya been?
Looks good lots of large moves south on the gbp pairs this could just be a small retracement before another test lower, We shall see. I'll be watching 1.6 if we get there
Mike
|

Jan 25, 2010 2:23pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghettobuddha
Hey Mike,
I'm in the construction biz. So getting up at 5am to bust my butt these days is not fun haha. I'm only on cause its raining up in NYC so I get to take it easy. Hopefully I'll have more chart time, but we shall see. How have you been Mike? Anything new?
|
plugging along! waiting for some more market goodies
|

Jan 25, 2010 2:30pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bee3a
Mike, I watched the videoz u made in the free section, Can't thank you enough..
keep up and wish you luck and success with everything ..
|
Thanks! Hope they help in a small way
Best to you too
Mike
|

Jan 25, 2010 2:59pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenborrell
Mike,
I've watched those as mentioned before. They are waaayyyyy beyond a small help. They were a gigantic, massive, huge, Colossal help!!!!
Get my drift, they helped me alot!!
Thanks again.
glen
PS. I stll took that CAD/CHF 2 day pin against your good advice 
|
Hey Glen
Thanks and glad to hear you followed your plan. I only give out my opinion based on how I trade. Many ways to tackle this market
Stick to your guns !
Mike
|

Jan 25, 2010 6:02pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek
This is my first post in this topic, was this a valid trade or did I just get lucky?
Cable Daily.
|
Hey Bleek
yes that pin is very valid. But your arrow is pointing 2 bars over from the pin? or was that just an error. The pinbar is 2 bars back from your arrow. Just making sure
Best
Mike
|

Jan 25, 2010 8:20pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
To the General Membership of Readers...
Perhaps you haven't realized but I sure appreciate having...
Jarroo & Jim (Mbq11) to offer two (albeit slightly) different viewpoints of the same scenario.
Ghous & Dan also offer other insights &...
then there are the diehard fans not only but including Kiss, LVG, DobeR and, lest we forget, James, The Man.
All this & respect for others too. It can be achieved!
BMc says  you guys.
I'm know there are more but you don't want to read the entire list of who catches my attention.
|
WE are all grateful for YOU sir.
|

Jan 26, 2010 12:00am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dario3025
I have downloaded the recommended file of "grid v1 0" can anyone help me with the imput values. When I hit OK I get grid lines all over the charts. All I want is a simple 1000 pip horizontal line., but I getting vertical lines also.
|
For example I am on fxpro
So my settings for eur/usd will look like this
HGrid Weeks 100
Hgrid pips 10000
Hline (none)
Hline2 (orange)
Grid time 15
time grid 240
colorhour 16
Timeline None
Timeline2 None
if you have 4 decimal places then you have to take a zero off.
Here is what I wrote to someone in a PM
I am not real sure what all the stuff is, I jsut found the indicator and played with it till it fit
from what I can gather
Hgridweeks - How many weeks back you want the indicator to use
HgridPips - horizontal line drawn per your value input(you would want to use 500 and 1000 if you have 4 decimal places)
Hline - Color of vertical line i think - put none
Hline2 - color of horizontal - i use orange
Gridetime - no idea(think its for vertical lines
timegrid - no idea again see above
Color hour - no clue
Timeline and timeline 2 are what color vertical lines are so I put them set to none
Hope that helps
|

Jan 26, 2010 12:27am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Here was a quick play a bit earlier then usual for me
|

Jan 26, 2010 12:50am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay s.
Hey guys, does anyone know of a MT4 indicator/feature that will plot the trades taken on the chart? Similar to how Oanda does it. Basically after a trade is exited, plotting the entry and exit on the chart....
I have seen a couple of people using it on their charts here, and wondering how you set that up?
|
go to your terminal tab then go to account history
just left click and drag onto the chart and it will pop up with those arrows and such
|

Jan 26, 2010 1:18am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek
Hey Mike, sorry I should have said the arrow was my entry! 
|
Hey Bleek
You want to make sure you are getting in on the break of the low of the pinbar which is 2 bars back from your arrow. This is the bar we are looking to trade, after it closes we can place a pending order under it. So your order should be executed 1 bar back from your arrow.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
|

Jan 26, 2010 12:11pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
closed out the eur/aud 4hr buob finally. Tough decision to just move to b/e and let it go but with such a strong downtrend I would rather take some nice profit and wait for another opportunity.
|

Jan 26, 2010 2:14pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdean123
Just curious. When you trade price action what is the thought about prices? Is it that prices fully reflect all market information that is available?
Paul
|
It is for me. It reflects what people believe price should be priced out. People buy b/c they think price is to low and sell b/c it is too high. Price chops when people believe price is fairly valued
|

Jan 26, 2010 2:15pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
another one I am in but watching close and stop above the recent beob, got in on the pin
|

Jan 26, 2010 3:53pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW
Outside Bars.... the bigger the better?
|
for sure 
|

Jan 26, 2010 3:54pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Cool trade Mike. If that would close as a daily pin bar, you would have a good reason to keep holding it
Below is another dirt simple trade on eurnzd.
Ben
|
Yeah I am just not loving this one so i closed it for b/e. Regrets may come later 
|

Jan 26, 2010 4:33pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdean123
Thanks for the comment but doesn't it mean that price is where it is because of all the information known about it is reflected in the current price? So whatever the price is, that would be the best price.
I think that is what you said in your first statement. But if that is true why would people buy because some think price is too low or too high? Can you explain a little more?
Paul
|
Well that is why prices constantly move b/c people constantly think prices are not valued right. So if there is a huge pin and you sell b/c you believe price should go lower you are saying this currency is over priced. If people all agreed prices would never move at all and no market would exist to trade in(hypothetically)
|

Jan 26, 2010 5:25pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
I think that would be a day we all dread.  lol
|
the day prices never move again we have much larger problems lol
|

Jan 26, 2010 6:17pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW
So AUD/JPY short on the break of 0.8000 and the old trendline would be good?
Edit: Or indeed many other JPY pairs
|
possibly but be careful we want BEOBs at swing highs this is a swing low which means right when it breaks we could be in for a reversal. .8 mark would be trading into a PPZ instead of away. Isn't necessarily wrong, just be cautious
Mike
|

Jan 26, 2010 9:24pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
I am excited to make my first post to this thread. I just finished reading the whole thing (seriously.. it took forever, haha), and I am looking forward to beginning to contribute to the thread.
I need to start by saying thank you, thank you, THANK YOU James16. This thread has done so much for my trading, which I will explain below, but more importantly thank you for your example of generosity and untiring selflessness in sharing your knowledge and saving so many of us from the pitfalls you had early in your trading career. I pray for continued...
|
Welcome Cory! Hope to see you posting more now  You are a model of what others should copy when learning this stuff
Mike
|

Jan 26, 2010 11:27pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by albertsy2
Hi, just wanted to ask if J16 uses other candlestick patterns... I know we only learn about BEEB, BUEB, BEOB, BUOB, Pin bars, and IBs(?) here, but how about the other types of candlesticks? Are they completely useless?
|
Hey Al
You can add in DBHLC, DBLHC, TBH(two bar high) TBL (two bar low). Double bar pins(aka railroad tracks)
Mike
|

Jan 26, 2010 11:54pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by albertsy2
Thanks for the quick reply, guys! Yes, I'm already learning about PASR, TLs, Fibs, and the EMAs (using 20, 100, and 365 myself)...
(I do agree that a divergence on an oscillator is also quite important, although I haven't delved into using these oscillators yet for the J16 system... frankly, are they actually used in J16? But that's neither here nor there...)
Yup, I completely forgot about the DBHLC, DBLHC and double bar patterns..!
However, I haven't come across the "railroad tracks" pattern yet. What are those?
|
These are just 2 day pinbars, if you combine two bars to form what would be a pin. Taking the open from the first bar, the close from the second and the highest high and lowest low of both.
here is an example
|

Jan 27, 2010 12:08am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Classic setup Mike. Sweet. 
|
closed for b/e 
|

Jan 27, 2010 12:16am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I guess I read this wrong "stop above the recent beob" . . . I thought you had your stop above the BEOB on the 4 hour.
|
yeah I did that decided to get out late in the day . Wasn't in love with the mess underneath hopped out
On to the next one 
|

Jan 27, 2010 4:03am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Hey Mike,
How would you rate such outside bars?? I mean these are not exactly at a swing high, they're not even at a pull back...they are right in the middle of a downtrend/uptrend...
what's your take on these??
g.
|
Hey G
These are what I call continuation bars. They are certainly playable just like other bars but more tricky. Basically when you play continuations you always have to worry about trading into a new low which are common reversal points. My favorite are BEOBs as continuations when you are getting a breakout with them(so a pattern that has almost a BEOB say as a tip off of the breakout). This one is actually nto that bad but I don't like the close(would want it below the prior bar), and then you have the low from 12/18 right there. Overall not the worst of beobs as continuations I have seen. They are more tricky but you can also catch some big runs if played right.
Best
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 4:04am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattfx
Hi Ghous,
What I see is not a BEOB on the GBPJPY I have reversal in the form of a 2 day pin bar...
|
Hey Matt that is a beob as it has a higher high then previous bar and a lower low
-Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 1:16pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bee3a
Hey Mike, I run Fxsol Demo and my data feed shows a 10 pip difference between the close of the prior bar and the one we're talking about..
How far apart do u think in your opinion generally a close of the BEOB should be to the prior bar if it was at such location (continuation bars) ?
|
Hey Bee
For me it is just a personal preference. I like almost all my outside bars to close above or below the prior bar. This one would be tricky almost any way you cut it b/c of that low from dec 18 would be close by(which happens to be where price stalled today). Actually if anything when those two lows break it would work out better). My feed the bar did not close below the low I use fxpro. So even if it isn't a continuation bar i am still looking for those strong closes. Just part of my methods.
Best
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 1:23pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
Hi Perch,
I know how you feel, and just wanted to offer some words of encouragement. It shows a lot of discipline to avoid the forum and just trade on your own to avoid distractions; this shows me that you really care about succeeding as a trader.
Time and time again James16 and Mike have spoken of the importance of waiting for A++ setups. I promise you these setups do come, they work well, and more importantly are easier to manage than B trades, C trades, etc. If you are just trying to get past the point of losing to have your first...
|
Cory I was just about to type a long winded rant when you beat me to it
I always tell people who are overtrading, set ground rules. Give yourself 3 bullets for the whole month. If you waste them in one day b/c you have to be in the market then it is shame on you and you have to wait a whole month to trade. It is not about trading, it is about making money. Discipline is probably the #1 problem for people everyone, including me. When I lack my discipline I get smacked around. I always say to people can you show me one absolutley A+++ bar a month that you know for sure you would take. They all say yes. I then say if you took just that trade wouldn't you be making money? They say yes. Think about that, and build from there. I think thats pretty much how I did.
And yes please to those few recent posts of the new traders DEMO DEMO DEMO. If you can't do it on demo you can't do it with real money, so no need to put it to risk.
Good stuff
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 1:24pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
great response sir
Quote:
Originally Posted by perch
Thanks for the replies -
Yep determination I have - general overall patience I think I have - I know it'll take time and I know the losers can teach you more than the winners - IF you recognize and understand 'what went wrong'.
I may be on the verge of understanding that you will change your trading 'style'
when you trade for $.01 a pip - super easy to gamble.
when you trade for $1.00 a pip - I guessing from me only - still super ez to gamble
when you trade for 10.00 apip - - well now a 30-40 positive is $300-$400 bucks that means something....
|
|

Jan 27, 2010 6:00pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW
Like this one on USDSGD?
|
Hey Matt
for me to consider it as a continuation it would have had to close above that whole range of prior bars(the four prior).
As a side note, it is pretty much a 3bar high on my daily which is a sign of continuation if broken, which would give it a lot better reason to take it if anything as a 3bar high break with a buob giving the tip off which brings 1.41 into the works
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 6:16pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW
Ah I get you. You want the continuation OB to also break the range thus indicating the breakout and resumption of the trend.
|
yes a BUOB engulfing a range is a very strong indication of where price wants to go next(temp or longer term), to me a buob engulfing and being able to close above that range is even strong indication of where the flow is headed
Time for some food!
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 11:05pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
i don't know if I should demo this.... or live it..... I'm pretty sure mike is looking at it right now though...
|
Watching this area but don't like the time it formed or the close of the bar. So gonna stand aside and see what happens in euro session.
Mike
|

Jan 27, 2010 11:20pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I set a line alerter on the break of the pin. I'll wait for that. some good breakout consolidation areas are lining up right now though, so I see those as better opportunities than this pin.....
|
yep were at some great areas across the board. Just waiting for the beauty to pop up and tip me off 
|

Jan 28, 2010 1:46am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
A hard break would make the difference in my book. (if it breaks)
|
that sentence has so much meaning to it I hope people understand with this type of bar/scenario
|

Jan 28, 2010 3:33am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The added support of a ranging market, yes I understand.
When I think of a good size bar I think much bigger . . . . like Mike size bigger. lol
|
THis one is close. Everything is looking topish or bottomish so it could very well turn temporarily
|

Jan 28, 2010 1:19pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Closed my earlier short based on 1HR pin and reentered based on PPZ. Also In an EG short, though this isn't going as planned.
|
that's how I like em 
|

Jan 28, 2010 1:35pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr
Been watching this but its not an Outside bar on the FX Pro feed. Will wait to see how the Daily closes.
Mike where was your sell stop? From your chart it doesn't look like it is below the BEOB or did you enter when the bar closed?
|
Hey LJ
I entered a market order cause I am making a video of it live. But on my real account it was below which triggered right after around that time. Just easier then entering a bunch of numbers with a different spread on the demo feed
Mike
|

Jan 28, 2010 2:11pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbo67a
What is a strong PPZ?
|
A PPZ is a Flip b/w support and resistance
you can read more up here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084
So a strong one is just going to be a much more significant zone that price seems to love
Best
Mike
|

Jan 28, 2010 5:19pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
So the the next question is how did you manage this one? Stop loss above the IB or above the 1.0700, moved to break even quickly and/or took partial profits?
I believe you were looking for the bottom of the BUB from Jan. 26th. pretty close to a hit on that one.
|
I have been staring at this chart. It really is intriguing me as a breakout + pullback combo. I don't know if I can get myself to pull the trigger on it , with friday coming tomm, I am reluctant to just stay out lol

Mike
|

Jan 28, 2010 5:42pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
That bullish PB is making you  with the 1.7000 right there yet the 1.1000 not so far away. I see what you mean. 
|
Well I actually look at breakout and pullbacks different then my stanard trades. I am less pick on PA, and then I tend to let it go, b/c if I am right and this is a "breakout" then price should take off and not come back under that pin
Interesting
Mike
|

Jan 28, 2010 8:28pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by michal7
First of all, congrats on a great trade wh1zz0!
BUT
Mike, Jim and everyone,
how would you actually rate the pin bar from 11th of Jan, base on which wh1zz0 took this trade? I checked the chart and for me it's B trade at best. All I can see is very good resistance there. Other than that, I don't see divergence, no fib (it's between 50 and 61), and pin bar just looks very small to me, half the size of previous bars. Am I missing something or am I just too picky?
The last GBPCHF pin bar looks much much better, at least to me...
|
Hey Michal
This bar was way to small for me. But again I have a bit different style. For those that trade this I can't see not protecting yourself, at least not taking a big loss. To me this have to be the quick to b/e. I simply pass on em, but that doesn't make them not worth trading to others for sure.
Just my views
Mike
|

Jan 29, 2010 3:37pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Just to add my 0.02p if I may...the size of your account IMO should not affect the style of your trading i.e. if you move to BE at first PPZ area on a trade then this should apply regardless of the size. The type of setups you take ie. your trade plan again should not change...you have to dissaccosiate yourself away from the money at stake and focus on trading your plan regardless of the quantums involved. If you are using proper risk management then you should not feel different whether you are trading a small or large account...being emotionless...
|
In an ideal world yes we would be emotionless. But when you go from 10cents a pip to 10$ a pip things change, let alone 10$ a pip to 2000$ a pip. Were talking serious bones and thus ones methods will most likely shift. I have seen it myself and were not even talking about any serious bank yet. No one wants to go through the fluctuations as much when you are putting more serious money on the line. Someone who makes 70% a year with a 40% possible max drawdown is fine with that on their 10k account, make that account 1million and lets talk  Most people as they grow look for ways to smooth their equity curve and this usually means giving up %R for the tradeoff of being able to sleep at night lol(this is where some changes occur, and where no one is risking 4-5% of their account and taking full bar losses with a large account).
Again are you "technically" right. That nothing is changing(aside from things like slippage on bigger orders etc), yes. But is it the reality? Hasn't been from my experience and from those that I know doing this awhile.
Just my 2 cents
Mike
|

Jan 29, 2010 4:52pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marxdhr
Hi:
After studying all videos, pdfs, and the main links for suggested viewing in this thread, I started my first week of trading with Price Action set ups in stocks and ETFs on 15 minute charts....
|
1% a week, 4% avg a month is fantastic my friend. Just stay disciplined and patient and not much can stop you
Mike
|

Jan 29, 2010 7:05pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
Hey Mike, I was looking at this, and I was curious if you ever play something like this.
Yes I know it's not at a swing high, and there's a TON of traffic right below it (actually, the bar closes right on a very strong PPZ), but lets pretend this bar formed straddling the .9500, with little to no traffic below, would you ever see that as the "straw that broke the camals back" and consider it a precursor to a...
|
Hey Dan
Yes those are some of my bread and butter intraday round number plays. These are the most common types of scenarios I play for continuation bars. You get a ranging on a round number, then a outside bar engulfs the range and tips you off where it is going, and manage accordingly. Although aud/cad is just the worst pair on earth so I wouldn't take it cause of that lol
Best
Mike
|

Jan 29, 2010 7:06pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marxdhr
Hi Mike:
Thank you for your response and kind words....
|
Hey Marx
That pdf was created by someone who browsed this thread, so it is 'unofficial' so to speak. It sounds as if you are referring to a BUB, or BEB, which is just a bullish bar or bearish bar. I don't know many people that trade based on those alone but use them as additional info for trades. I trade mostly outside and pinbars personally.
Have a great weekend guys
Mike
|

Jan 30, 2010 1:22am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
4%/month = 48%/year.... I don't think people realize how HUGE this is....
|
you are right they don't
|

Jan 31, 2010 1:35pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Third and biggest advantage you have is that YOU KNOW NOTHING
.
|
couldn't agree more lol. This for sure is a huge leg up on where most of us were!
Mike
|

Jan 31, 2010 11:18pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marxdhr
Could Jarroo or someone else please explain in detail the so-called "free trade approach". I have seen posts describing the movement of stops to breakeven quickly once one has a profit in the trade, but I have not seen anyone describe exactly how to do it if one wants to. Many trades take off and provide a small profit at first, but if you move the stop to break even after only 30 pips, don't you get stopped out too often?
|
yes you will have a lot of b/e trades which means you are preserving your capital and then when you hit the runner you can 
|

Feb 1, 2010 9:18am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ezzy
Just for my own learning, would this be a A PB, B, C etc.
Also if it were off the 1.700, would it then be an A++ PB.
Thanks
|
Hey Ez
You are going to get different views depending on the type of trader, but since you asked for me that is about a D pin. Just small, not a great close, not in a lot of space, not too much going for it for me.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 9:20am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69
the very best Roman cousine and wine...
thank you
|
sounds delicious 
|

Feb 1, 2010 9:21am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof Hunter
Anno, I, myself had to tackle with that problem.
The solution(s) come from knowing the differences among the diff. viewpoints of risk. (See My post here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=27)
As Your acc. grows, its size can change significantly, compare to Your living cost, or all You have, but still not reach Your dream.
It can cause 'tension' in Your trading, because your account risk % is unchanged, but You start to compare it to indifferent things, like above. If You had endless mental capital, it would...
|
so true , so true. There are so many tradeoffs you guys are going to find as you grow both capital wise and mental wise as a trader. It doesn't end with the charts, that is for sure
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 9:22am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ezzy
Mbqb11
Just watched your pin bars and break out webinars, very nice! Many thanks
|
Thank you sir, I will cut up a clip again for you guys soon, just been so busy 
|

Feb 1, 2010 4:51pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Hey Michal My answers in bold
Hello Mike,
if you'd be so kind and answer following question I'd be thankful...
1, Are you still using 2 bar exit strategy?
Yes it is part of my arsenal of exits.
2, If yes, how is it working over time?
Still works just as good as ever. It is knowing when to apply it. I will use it when price has a lot of room to move and no other basis for which to start to reduce my risk. A lot of times I use it in combo with other exit mgmt. For example start with a 2 bar and work my way towards a profit target or what not. It all depends on each trade.
3, Do you use it with trades on daily chart?
I will use it on any timeframe
4, Are you still extra extra picky, even more than james?
I would say we are picky in our own ways. I tend to focus on certain areas and certain conditions and have a different mgmt style. But we are both picky
5,On daily chart, how many trades do you take a month?
Roughly 3-5 sometimes none, sometimes more
6, Do you close trade only when you're stopped out based on this strategy or do you also have some definitive profit target?
As above, I have a wide variety of exits. For the most part they are just based on s/r. For breakouts I might use the BAT to trail out when something breaks hard, or the 2bar. For trades that I feel have less room to move I look to flat take profit at certain areas. I am always use bar analysis and s/r to determine ways to reduce my open risk.
You see, I'm at work every day, so I'm not able to manage my trades closely and move SL or take profits anytime it's needed. I thought that maybe this strategy can be right for me so I can do my trading only in the evening(of course I'm learning during the weekends).
It certainly might be. If you use a flat out trailing method, you tend to have a lower win rate and catch some bigger winners when they do run. It is always a balancing act of what works for one individual.
I'm now watching about 25 forex trades and I'd like to try bullet exercise, how much bullets do you think should I give to myself?
3
If I could manage one day to have few trades a month which I could manage only in the evenings and I'd make 5% a month that would be fantastic! Do you think it is possible?
I mean sure, it depends on your risk and style, but I don't see why anyone can't make b/w 1-5% monthly and still be rather conservative. But I wouldn't focus on I want to make 5%, instead I would focus on finding what works for you and seeing what the markets give and getting a more general avg of what it might produce.
Hope this helps
Mike
[/quote]
|

Feb 1, 2010 5:03pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by michal7
It helps very much indeed. I'm now officially giving myself 3 shots for february. Hope I'll pick best trades coming out there
THANK YOU MIKE! You're always a great help!
|
keep us updated and PM me if you need anything
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 10:09pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marxdhr
Thank you for the clarification Mike. James advised me to stick with Pin Bar and Outside Reversal set ups as well. What about inside bar set ups? Do you take them and, if so, can you please describe or post one that qualifies as an A+ set up?
|
Hey Marx
Inside bars are good, but just really much trickier. They are much tougher to spot the real good ones from the bad, and often times it is just about catching a real big runner with one to cuont for the few bad ones. I would highly recommend sticking to the A++ outside and pinbars for now. IMO that is the best way to build from
Best
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 10:14pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imphilomath
Hi marxdhr and Mike,
Can you please direct me to the post where you got the pdf from? I understand SR trading is very discretionary, but will be useful for me to start with the basic guidelines ( those worked for gurus like Mike and James) on entry,trade management,exits and then play with those to find what suits my personality.
Appreciate your help.
cheers
|
Hey IM
Def not a guru here, just a student of the game too. The PDF is just someone who browsed this thread put together, very unofficial. You can find it by clicking the paper clip in the main area where this thread is located. But I would use this post much more so then that pdf
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
Again not a substitute for all the time and posts in this thread, but a good starting point courtesy of Josh!
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 10:15pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
Hi Imphilomath,
I'm not sure which PDF you are talking about, but if you want to understand the basics of this method the best advice I can give you is to start reading from post #1....
|
Cory is getting good at this! Thanks
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 10:19pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Treefingers
& just below the nice big number of 1.6000.
|
This is where my major concern comes in. Technically I define many of my PPZs around these numbers, so we would be trading right into it instead of away from. These you HAVE to watch like a hawk if you are going to trade them cause if it bounces there I would be biting my fingernails so I stay out on these
Mike
|

Feb 1, 2010 11:07pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imphilomath
Thanks Mike for sharing the post and appreciate your sharing your knowledge with newbies like me. I have started reading this thread and almost half way.Definitely collection of posts on the first page as well. I have also gone thru' most videos on the site. I think I have gotten the gist of it :-) but still more I get to read about this ( and practice it ) the better.
Quick Q: There was a recent reference to "free trade" ( same thing I see was suggested by James in one of his old videos) and moving stops to BE after 30 pips. I was interested...
|
Hey Imp
This is sort of like polling what is better chocolate or vanilla ice cream :P
The reality is they can all work if you develop a method for it. I personally always enter on the break of the bar and my stop above/below the bar. But my trade mgmt varies greatly from trade to trade. Depending on what the trade situation is. Many people here are quick to b/e or taking some of the table quick. Both can work depending on your style and personality. Both have advantages and disadvantages as well. For example a quick to b/e means a very high win rate, lots of b/e but your losses are going to be small or very rare larger loss, your winners are small with the occasional large runner. A more loose method is going to have more losers, and larger winners in general. So again trade offs are there and it really depends. I suggest starting with what seems comfortable and working from there as it is a long road
Just my views though
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 1:31am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imphilomath
hahaha thanks Mike. Loved the chocolate Vanilla ice cream example. Things are simple to understand for me when ice cream is involved ( especially when we in Sydney are in summer :-) ).
I agree, this is something I need to learn by putting some trades in and see what I am comfortable with. Personally I am very risk averse person, so I am guessing moving stops after x number of pips makes more sense to me ( I am at least preserving capital).
Just to make sure I understand it correctly so I can try this trading plan ( to see if it works for me)
Entry...
|
Hey Imp
Yes you can do either or. There is no set rule of anything, so at this point it is about experimenting and testing too see what might work for you. I personally never take partial profits, some people always do. There is just such a large amount of different ways to do things, so you have to kinda just jump in (on demo of course  ).
As for aud/usd, there are really no signals in terms of PA analysis to really go by, so to me that is too much of a blind short base don short term strength. Wait for the good bars you can't go wrong that way.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 2:12am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
It just occur to me after reading "free trade" post by Jaroo that I could have gotten the understanding of moving stops to BE wrong all this while.
When one says 'move stops to BE', does this means moving the stop to entry price or does it mean moving to a point negative 'x' pips away from current price where half the position is closed with profit x pips.
Please could someone clarify that which of the two understanding is correct?
Thanks!
CY
|
Hey Cy,
It could be both. Meaning some people move stops to entry price, some who bank pips from half position move it to the avg price that would put them at net 0$ breakeven, others to entry price b/e insuring some profit.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 3:33am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jspeakman
Hi Mike - I know you were not impressed earlier with weekly pin on GBP/CAD
but I wondered whether a break of a pin on or hard through a BRN would be valid (1.7000 in this case). This was coming off a clear trend line and continuation of major down trend. Confluence of PA and major trend line just look quite powerful to me.
thanks
Jeremy
|
Hey Jeremy
Don't let me discourage you from your analysis. As you have noticed it really all comes back to what fits YOUR trading criteria. So when I say something it isn't from the perspective that someone else is wrong, simply based on how I see things. For me it just is too small of a bar not at a great swing point with a poor close. If it works or not isn't really of concern for me, more that something fits my criteria before pulling the trigger.
Hope that makes sense
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 3:48am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jspeakman
Thanks Mike - would be very grateful if you could explain your 2 bar exit strategy mentioned earlier - must have missed that somewhere.
Jeremy
|
Hey J
All it is using is a previous bar low or high to place your stop behind. In this case counting 2 bars back from the current closed bar and placing your stop under that level. It works best in trending markets, or bars that have a lot of room to run.
Just a side note about exits from my view point as well
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36491
Best
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 12:16pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jspeakman
Brilliant - this has really helped to clarify this point, and have filed the post. Final question (promise!)- when considering 'traffic' (and I guess ppzs) effect do you relate this to the same time frame? - or do you say take a trade based on PA in the Daily but may look to 4 hour for traffic/ppz trouble spots?
Thanks
Jeremy
|
Hey Jeremy
I stick to the same timeframe I am taking the trade on. In my view you can see everything you need from that timeframe to make the proper decisions.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 12:34pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Hey Printer
As for books, the only real technical book I think worth getting is Pring on your list. Van tharp is great for things like expectancy and understanding more about trading(not necessarily from a technical standpoint). I would add 'trading in the zone' to that list and some of my other favorites are the Market Wizard books by schwager and Reminiscences of a Stock operator is a must read. The others IMO aren't really worth it maybe to get a more general understanding on some basic TA concept murphys book. But again, if you can find it at your library sure read it. Babypips "school" is a great thing to go through, and then starting from page 1 here you can't go wrong . As for the j16 site, you can pay and come and go as you please, we have a little bit of everything. But don't even think about that now. Spend at least 3-4 months in this thread there is so much material and you can see where you are at that point and if it is something that still interests you of course we would love to have ya. Really you have a lot to take on at this point just jump in and grab a coffee
Best
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69
Hi everybody / mbqb11 / James
after few days surfing on the web and based on your advices this is my study plan for the next ... months
would appreciate if someone of you has a minute to check me on this and give me a go / no go "for launch"
BOOKS:
martin pring -...
|
|

Feb 2, 2010 1:57pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
hey Mike,
quick question if you dnt mind....
in terms of 1st trouble area, if we have a big beob/pin on big round no(1st circle) depicted by chart with 1st trouble area not far from the break of bar.
is this a no trade for you or do you look at it as the bigger the PA ,the easier
it shld break through if we had our 1st trouble area like this as you can see price initially ran up to test a mini ppz above before eventually breaking.
2nd circle also shows similar scenario but this time price broke before retracing to test a mini ppz above, before moving...
|
Hey Squeezy
I don't really have one ABC answer for what I do. i treat each situation as its own entity and try to decide at the time the best course of action. I am not like most where the first trouble area I have to do something. I am aware of them and often use them to start to move down my stops an eliminate risk. If the bar I am taking is good enough to enter and upon break there is a trouble area usually I am not to worried about it since I am very picky. But sometimes if there is a significant first trouble area I will move my stops quicker then normal, or avoid the trade. So it really depends.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 8:25pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marxdhr
Hi Mike:
It would be great if you could look at the post I made earlier today (I think right before this post) which explains how I use a trailing two bar stop for intraday trading. I try to strike a balance between being too conservative, letting winners run, but getting out a lot without a big loss and trying to make sure that small winners are still a lot larger than my average loss. It should be a few posts behind this one. I would really welcome your response to it.
|
Hey Marx
It seems as if you are trying to do too many different things at once. That is let your trade run, get to b/e, and set a take profit, all while trailing. IMO this is a disconnect b/w the functions of each of those styles. Without fully understanding what is the reason for using each. Again from my perspective I will use a trailing stop where I believe price has a lot of room to run, not if I am looking to flat out take profit at 1:1(Isn't that taking away from the reason to trail out?, ) or get to b/e at the previous bars high. This is going to take away from what a trailing stop is, which is to give room to run. Now I am not saying this won't work, I have no clue if it will, but it sounds like you are trying to get the best of everything but in turn it might lead to getting the best of nothing. If you want to get your stops to b/e asap, then choose that and build from there. I really tend to just decide for each trade and work from there, but I don't always do one thing and I change as a trade develops. Another thing I see you talking about 15 minute bars, but like James I full agreement no one should be under daily/weekly until they can trade that profitably too , so i thought I would bring that up. So I would not try to do all those different pieces at once, and maybe try sticking with one and building from there. Obviously exits are nearly the most difficult for people b/c they don't have a concrete trading plan or an idea of what to do and they get lost like you have. So it is very normal as you learn what works and what doesn't for you.
I know that might seem kind of confusing but it is the only way I know how to explain it based on your post. So hopefully it makes sense when I say start with one of those concepts and build from there, or see if it is working. Be it through massive backtesting, and of course DEMO forward testing. Only once you get substantial data to analyze can you build from there and see what is working and what is not working.
Hope that helps
Mike
|

Feb 2, 2010 9:25pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
LOLOLOLOLOLOL - Dude - you are welcome here ANYTIME !!!
Jim is not a Forex Jesus, but I did see him heal several traders of over trading, too much risk, indicators and of course he has healed everyone of liberalism....
Jim is love. He turns water in Beer and once he raised a dead account.
|
hahaha
Yeah Chris I would start from page 1 and read at least the first few hundred pages. Then you can skip a lot and search for certain "key" members posts. You will know whose those are as your work your way through, but for a hint you can check anyone who I have vouched for would certainly be on my must read list 
|

Feb 2, 2010 9:28pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
.
|

Feb 3, 2010 2:58am
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
Thanks Lovejoy.
Actually, what I wanted to ask is what are round numbers in your case (NZD/USD) , I means since PPZ is an area and not a line. When a person says round number does it mean the last digit of the quote (assuming 4 decimals) has to be zero, for example 0.7110 or does it mean the 2nd last digit has to be zero for example 0.7100. Sorry if this seems to silly a question but I am on still very new here..............
|
Hey E
The round numbers are , 7100, 7150, ...those are the more common ones the xx00 and xx50
Best
Mike
|

Feb 3, 2010 12:56pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
where is benji now
Bunch of us took this bad boy
|

Feb 3, 2010 1:15pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW
Hey Mike,
When taking outside bar plays at swing highs (or indeed as consolidation breakouts) do you only take those that can offer 1R or better? Or will you take it even if first resistance is 0.5R?
|
Hey Matt
I take a good bar that meets my trade criteria. Sometimes I get .25, sometimes 3r, so it isn't oh this has to go 1:1 or anything like that.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 3, 2010 1:20pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
I definiately took this, my problem now is the management. I have reduce my stop and I feel comfortable doing this because of the round number protection. But I am up about .5R and know that if I was trading 10,000 a trade I would be at BE or took profit already. But I am not trading that amount but I have cut my stop down to about.5%.
I dont want to put the stop at BE becasue I know a retrace is possible and likely as we approach the lows of 1.58 & even 1.5850. Especially sinc ethis wasn a large swing high But then again when has this trade...
|
Your chart looks pretty much like mine I have somewhat reduced my stop. I am leaving soon for the night, so I have my take profit at the lows. Nothing wrong with moving to b/e here also, depends on your overall method in general. I am going to simply watch the 1.59, and see how things shake up. I am thinking after we retest the last low and break past it the real reversal comes in. We could very well bounce here though. For now I am with ya too.My take profit is above 1.5850 for the time being and will re-evaluate on my phone every few hours I get a chance to look
Mike
|

Feb 3, 2010 1:36pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Thanks for your thoughts on this mike.
There is a reason my chart looks like yours, it may have to do with watching / attending the webinars. lol :-P
Getting same reversal feeling especially with NFP approaching. Might just move up to 1.59 and TP.
Do you use logmein? on Iphone? Been looking into doing remote log in on phone but havent sprung fro the $30 logmein app. Probably will though.
|
Yeah I have the logmein app. Really cool and fast and you can have multiple PCs and just shake the phone to switch b/w monitors also
Mike
|

Feb 3, 2010 1:37pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RajFX
hey Mike,
out of curiosity: after the BEOB formed I assume you placed sell stop at around 5950. Did you place SL all the way above the high or would you have closed it on a break back above 1.6?
What often holds me back in similar situations is that the SL is big...
thanks
R.
|
Hey Raj
Remember s/l is all relative to position size. So your stop can be 30 pips or 300 and your risk remains constant, what changes are the units(position size) to make sure to control that. So yes my stop does go above the bar initially.
Best
Mike
|

Feb 3, 2010 1:49pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
That's the only way to profitably trade IMO; Free of rigidness.
|
those little .25 add up quick too 
|

Feb 4, 2010 1:16pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
This is the kind of chart I used to take a loss on. No more - as long as you recognise it is in a range, and you learn the game by playing the game*...
Attachment 409005
Attachment 409006
* some smart guy said this once. forget who - he was pretty big, and talked kinda funny...
|
and hes back 
|

Feb 4, 2010 1:17pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhb
Hi everybody,
This is my first post here in this thread and on FF as well. My name is Boy, and I arrived here via Tom (Trader Dante / Wizard) over at T2W. I'm currently busy ploughing through this behemoth thread from the start. I'm currently just past page 1100 and I'm also following the current events since page 3250 or so. I've also already viewed the free videos on the J16 website a couple of times.
I'm currently demoing two methods, the "classical J16 method" if you will, i.e., PA on D1 and W1, and also a ppz-touch method I constructed...
|
Hey Boy
Welcome to the huge thread  Please do post away charts when you have time
Mike
|

Feb 4, 2010 1:21pm
|
 |
Resident Elmer Fudd
|
|
|
|
well I wanted some sleep and let the better of my "prediction" abilities take over and closed out at the prior low.
Hope some of you stuck it out though and took more then myself!
Mike
|
 |
|
|
36 Traders Viewing This Thread (13 are members)
|
|
Cyrus, BWise, gjworley1952, GetSmart, Dan Gilbert, Icehocey77, darewood, eot, spookie94, Jcp, Invisible, dmc, triger88990
|
| Thread Tools |
Search this Thread |
|
|
|
|