it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???
I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...
Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs seem...
Hey Dan
I think this sounds more like a mental block or just possibly not enough of a sample size to make such a leap. I would continue to trade how you trade, b/c the time will prob come where you run bad on the cross pairs and clean up on the USD pairs
I had a post i was typing but deleted b/c I am the worst at predicting. But I was going to say if that was the "intervention" level. The snap back should have been REAL quick once we hit there. It was suspicious to say the least, Should be a good point to sell at though for those aggressive touch traders out there
Can you please, please point me to any posts or other materials that explain in detail suggested exit strategies that work for some posters? There has to be at least some suggested methods that I can test rather than being left to guess and find the method through trial and error. It seems inefficient to review 50,000+ posts to find exit strategy suggestions. I will do that if necessary, but I am hoping that you can point me in an efficient direction.
Thank you again for responding.
Hey Marx
The trial and error part is very important. There are numerous ways I see all kinds of people exiting. I think it is very important to go through all of Jims posts and the other seniors around here, you will learn a lot more then I could ever summarize. If you notice none of them have a set rule. They have guiding principles but they are still flexible(the discretionary part that people get hung up on). You have such a variety of techniques and all can work and all can fail if not applied correctly(this is the trial an error part) for example
-full take profit at the first trouble area
- 1/4-3/4s of first profit area rest to b/e(or use the profit and move stop to where you would be net b/e)
-Trail stop in the variety of ways to reduce risk and allow more room to run(this is important to do with the BEST bars, not small ifffy ones).
-Take full profit at predetermined area let trade play out
- Trail with a MA
-Watch basic s/r and PA at the areas and respond accordingly
The list is HUGE and the most important thing is to test and get a feel for what works for you. I use a combo of the above(as note from that link I sent you) from a lot of trial and error. It is simply where I am comfortable looking at a trade that fits my method and working from there. I am conservative, I wait for A+ setups.
im actually a short tempered, jaded, stuck in my ways, hard assed, alamo loving, texas for seccession, america-love it or shut the f$%$ up mean son of a bitch.
seriously.
where is my bed?
btw how come so many people get to have invisible as the same username?
your heart is as big as your passions, why we love ya
I don't know Jack about no intervention, in fact, I pay no attention to news or other manner of 'talk'. Fundamentals are a misnomer for me. That stuff is so complex that applying the term "Fundamental" is just plain silly. People get economics degrees over the course of many years and then work as a grunt for many more to begin to understand that stuff. I ain't got the time!
But I do know PA works. Period.
.
Funny thing is I know plenty of kids with big economic degrees(I had to take a LOT of economics in college) and they know the "basics" which almost have zilch to do with in real time reality of economics let alone APPLYING it to the markets(and the FUTURE condition of the markets). This is where people get so trashed. They try to take BS systems and apply what they believe is fundamental analysis and end up with the most insane stuff ever. I am not against fundamental, I simply believe it is even harder to understand and apply correctly then learning basic solid TA. The one man that I miss is Merlin. If you guys had access to his old old posts where he would actually explain FA and APPLY it. The man was a genius.
entered on break of pin + S/l is top read line, bottom red is TP
careful here though, location is great off the 1.4(my fav) but that bar is not technically a pin. Remember open and close have to be within prior bar. Now if you combine that bar and the next you would have a nice 8hr beob. But this shows the importance of location though
I will let you know my personal opinion on these setups. But of course, that's just me.
Gold -...
I could have typed this word for word lol Nice Benji!
I think these are all "fast break" as Jarroo would say. You have to know when to cut out. For example gold, has potential if it breaks real hard and that area benji has marked can turn into support. Then you have an awesome place to hide your stop. If that thing doesn't break hard you better ditch that thing quick!
Further to Benji's explanation, also note that these bars were formed on Friday before close of US Session. Lot of traders choose to take profit on Friday US Session rather than holding positions (short) over weekend. These could be one of those scenario.
Also it could be reaction to this news in late US Session that "Europeon Union may propose a solution for Greece?s budget deficit.
You know it brother! We attract what we think. Thoughts are things and with that in mind, what are you thinking? Hm, I'm going to start a thread on this subject because it really is important to me and every other human that wants change in their life.
This is a beautiful BEORB. Thank you for posting it. If the very next bar following the price action bar (i.e. pin bar or outside reversal bar fails to break the high /low of that bar, how many more bars do you give it to enter the trade before you decide the set up bar is not valid for entry?
Hey Marx
Generally speaking 95+% of the time of the next bar doesn't break the bar I am canceling the order. This is simply my way of timing and judging momentum in the market place.
What percentage of the time do you incur an actual loss on your trades?
Hey marx
Well I have a lot of different losses. I rarely take full bar losses(they do happen about once a month ), but I am always looking at ways to reduce my risk. My win rate is the the upper 60- low 70%. But again that doesn't really tell you the full story.
Is this sort of a real time example regarding money management that you were trying to explain to me the other day....
Yes exactly. I had been out the prior night so I just wanted sleep and left my take profit in(still a logical place). Price of course blew through and kept going but yes this is what I mean. I don't ever take 1/2 off that. It just isn't how I trade. Again nothing at ALL wrong with it, but you just have to prove and test everything to yourself. This is why you do see a variety of styles.
I would agree Mike, the young grasshopper has really grasped the football and is running hard with it.
Also the hard and fast break, tight management approach would apply here . . . . absolutely.
But why would it apply? Because this is not A+ trade. Not after this (these) big move down, big Red bars, look out below type of moves. Big bold bullish PA or common sense (confluenced) continuation PA need only apply.
So taking a pass on these setups is a good decision and waiting for higher quality setup is in order. . . ....
I like the way you are looking and the bars. This could turn out terrific, but the area Benji pointed out is an important piece to the puzzle no matter if you trade it or don't.
Hello everyone, let's say I have no time to look at intraday. I am in Asia. I can only access my PC once in the morning, and that's at the end of the NY close; after that I am off to work. When I get off work, London has already been open for 7 hours.
Therefore, it's better to concentrate on Weekly and Monthly TF, and finetune entries on the Daily. J16 [mostly] teaches looking at daily and finetuning on 4H, which I cannot do. Would this be about right?
Hey Albertsy
Actually you don't need to fine tune anything. If you trade the daily you can make any and all decision on the same timeframe. So stick to the daily and weekly and you will be well on your way
Yet another question.....I try and keep these to a limit and I try to read as much as I can from this thread so I am not asking questions every 4 hr bar.
With the post by goldtrader, would the 3 and 4th bar from the right (with arrows) be considered a two day pin bar?
These e-mails are starting to make the money management gel for me....
Hey Marx
i am glad it is helping you. I personally do different things each time. So my only answer above is really that it is situational. The less stellar a bar the quicker I am getting to b/e or taking profit. The stronger I believe in a setup the more I tend to just start to reduce my stop at these trouble areas. It really comes down to each trade for me personally and how i best think to tackle it.
To post charts off other brokers you can take a screen shot(print screen button) then paste it into a program like ms paint. Save it as a gif file and upload it.
Nicely done on your trade, James would be very proud
I hope you don't take offense to this question because none is intended....
Yep you got it right. The less quality a setup the quicker to b/e we have to be. My win rate is a function of my mgmt style and my comfort like Benji said above. It isn't that i give every trade room to run, or that I take profit quickly for the other way. I just try to treat each trade(that meets my trade criteria, this is key) as its own situation, analyze it, and the approach it how I best see fit. The more choppy the markets are the more I am flat taking profit at the first trouble area and getting to b/e. These month my win rate is very high. When the markets are moving, and things are smooth, I tend to be more lenient with a bar and try to catch more of a runner. These months my win rate might decrease. It simply is what is comfortable for you. You will see this by the different styles we have in this thread from some great traders. So this sort of plays off my previous answer above to you. It really all depends on the trade for me.
can any of you recommend a good book that teaches meditation and stress management? I'm feeling all chopped up right now and can't even push myself to put my head into the charts, and most of my friends are here anyway.
Thanks,
Marcel
get your ipod out and throw on some good tunes. Hit the gym up and boom all relaxed and recharged. This is how I roll
I am assuming that you took a short on the bearish outside reversal bar at the top of the chart....
Hey Marx
I did not move my stop to b/e as I was confident in this setup we would retest the prior low. I moved it down every so slightly after the first push down, reducing about to about 3/4 risk exposure(in terms if I got stopped out). This is sort of what I meant by it isn't X happens and I do Y. I go a lot with my feel of my methods and the markets at the time.
Hi Mike (mbqb11), I'd like to ask about your breakout system. When the price breaks out you wait for a retrace and bounce.
Wouldn't the first TP be "naturally" at the swing (point H below)? Or would you target the next S/R beyond?
Hey Albertsy
It depends on the pattern and how far the first initial burst breakout is. But that can usually be your first potential trouble zone, good place for profit or moving up to reduce stops get to b/e etc. But it is situational what I do.
I am new but have been watching and learning for a while. Can someone disect this possible trade?
Thanks and hope the attachment is attached!
Hey Jimbo
The first thing that catches my attention is the timeframe. As per James minimum requirements, daily and weekly only. Until you can lick that you shouldn't be going down this low. This is where we can get really hurt as traders trying to trade the hourly timeframe at such a bad time. Naturally that was a pinbar and it did go to and bounce out the first expected area which was the, 1.3663. With that said overall that bar is very small and naturally b/c of the time it was created I wouldn't put much into it personally.
about 10 days ago I asked for some advice about how to start with forex education, you gave some suggestions and after being studying this threads first pages I just would like to ask you if you could please check me if I am on the correct path...
working on daily as James suggests to newbie...
first: identify an area to be determined with PPZ and/or Fib (confluence)
second: wait for PA to happens inside that area
third: take the trade according to PA rules
fourth: place SL ...but still didnt...
Hey Printer
Your fibs are drawn right, but not for each other. The larger fib would be used when looking to go long, and the other fib would be when looking to go short. You want them going the same way.
Just to evaluate my grasp on the concept of what constitutes a high probability location, I've added the chart below.
If we ignore for a moment the M30 timeframe (which I know is too low), and focus on the price action itself, I should think that apart from the round number not lining up with the 50 or the 62, but with the 38 fib retracement, the situation as shown below would be a good example of a location to look for price action. We've got a clear ppz, with historic significance to boot, we've got fib confluence, and finally round number confluence....
Hey DHB
Yes this is in general the type of things we are looking to do to narrow our areas down. Areas of confluence.
Could you elaborate on your comment abt the trade (if taken) as a continuation trade is VERY risky? I asssume when u say continuation you mean price to move lower (since we see that the main trend is downtrend over the longer period). If that is the case, wouldn't the setup be at least an A (going for short) since we have a good PB touching RN and bouncing off 50Fib.
Thanks.
CY
Hey CY
Not going to put words into Jarroo's mouth but actually technically speaking that bar is not a pin as it did not close within the prior bar. It could be considered by proxy pin, but again it has a very tiny nose and a poor close. On the 4hr you are going to see much better bars then this that make passing on this quite easy.
quote=chatzi;3452065]I am going to start demoing this method on Monday as per Jims first post. I have a few questions if anyone would be kind enough to answer I would be grateful.
1. I am using FXPro as my broker (demo), they seem to have a lot of instruments, anyone traded live with them? I use them only for demo, so can't answer you here
2. About risk per trade, I agree completely with the 1-3% risk of account, but do you guys that are live keep your whole account with the broker? I would feel more comfortable keeping say 25% of my account at the broker, but basing % risk on full amount. Yes this is very very normal and what I do and many other people. As long as the rest of your account funds are available for transfer as needed this is a way to safeguard one self against the mother of all catastrophes
3. Regarding PPZ, do you guys fill you charts with ppz's or just draw at "The next zone of interest" as it were i.e. first zone above and below price. I don't. I tend to just have my round numbers on the charts and then I plot PPZs as I enter into trades or am focused in on an area. I like to keep my charts as clean as possible but a lot of people have their charts all marked up. It is really up to you.
I like the idea of clean charts also, reading through the thread, a tip Jim suggests, that I like, is drawing a box at fib confluence, so you don't have fib lines all over the place, really messes up a chart. Not that you need to know this, but for other new J16ers.
Actually, I joined J16 group a few days ago. I've been watching the videos but haven't really dug in to the forums to much. I really need to take some notes, things tend to stick in my head better if I have to write it down.
The more I think about it, the question I asked was really stupid. I've taken in a lot of information in the last couple of days. I don't think it has all taken hold yet.
Bartstop
No stupid questions sir, we have all been there. It just takes time for it to all start to sink in and then some more time to get it to work
Hey Mike,
Need your clarification (again)
Regarding keeping a certain amount of fund with broker do you mean that for example, if one has 10k to trade, he could deposit 2.5k (25%) with the broker and keep the 7.5k himself? And how and under what circumstances will this 7.5k be transfered as you said above? Also if we do that (depositing only 25% with the broker, wouldn't this accelerate margin calls since you have less free margin? Thanks.
CY
Hey CY
You are only going to get a margin call if you well don't have enough margin. The idea is to keep enough on hand to cover the maximum amount of open trades you might ever have with margin. At 1% risk per trade, this isn't much. 25% is low, but depending on what your broker leverage is ~40-50% is good usually. As for how to get the funds, well most brokers allow wire transfer which is how I transfer my funds and it is extremely fast. You should never be in a bind that you must transfer instantly, you should always have enough leeway and if you are like me and only ever open maybe max 4 positions at once(usually with some locked in profit) your actual real exposure to the market is very very low.
Hello guys, I have been reading through the thread here and I think I have a possible PB setup forming on the U/J. If someone could take a quick look, I put a little arrow on the two bars that are/were possibilities...
Thank you so much for any advice and thank you to the gentleman that put the "pertinent post PDF" together. I printed that out at my office and am on my second read through.
Technically speaking that is a beob, b/c it has a lower low then the previous bar, although it has that "pinbar" look. We can still analyze it either way just thgouht I would clarify for consistency purposes
The bar itself is at a great location as Jarroo said the 90 level I am watching like a hawk, but the bar itself is just not all that big. It encompasses 4hrs of pretty dead market time(asian/aud session) which can be seen by the bar size but also noted by the time it was formed. With that said I just would really love to see you looking for those big obvious bars as they will do so much more and area easier to find IMo. If we want to see where this is likely to go we can see massive amount of bar highs it is coming into(blue on my chart).
Agreed entirely. My friends and family all act like I'm a merchant banker and ask prices on everything. Occasionally I know, but for the most part, I have to say I know what patterns traded today, last week, yada yada. I know where the major PPZs are for around 20 to 25 pairs but other than that, I don't much care about price...only the formation it is creating....
hahaha I get that all the time when I am out. Mike what is the euro at today. Like I dunno 1. something LOL
noob needs help with 1st page, post 3. seems 2 trades taken. 1st-after 5 days, open is lower than double bar close. is this where order entered? 2nd trade-after 5 days, open is lower, enter here? where is trend that it breaks out of? thanx, txtrky
Hey Trky
There are actually 3 potential trades on that page, each are highlighted in blue. The first one is a DBLHC(double bar low with a higher close). You enter after the last bar is formed. The most traditional entry for now to know is entering when the high breaks. The next pattern is the opposiet pattern a few days later. This is DBHLC(double bar high lower close, these are both 2 bar patterns). This is the same where you would enter when price breaks the last bar of the patter(the bar that closes lower then the previous bars low). The last pattern is a break of a multiple bar low at the right of the chart. This is a breakout pattern where you enter when price breaks the TBL(two bar low) the actual break happened 3 bars later under the white line.
I'm a bit confused as to what exactly constitutes a DBLHC or DBHLC.
Let's take the double bar low, higher close as an example. It's a 2 bar/candle pattern, with matching lows (max. 2 pips difference between the lows on a daily chart). No questions there. However, I am a bit unsure about the "higher close" part. Higher than what exactly? In my view, it could be one (or more) of the following 3 things:
1) higher close than the close of the previous bar/candle
2) higher close than the open of the previous bar/candle
3) higher close...
Hey Boy
To qualify as a James16 DBLHC it must always be option 3
I have been playing around on a spreadsheet looking at how long it might take to build an account using J16 method....
Hey Chatzi
You probably won't love what I have to say in regards to this, but it is a common question that has no real answer. So my summary of anything I say is to forget about what is possible, and simply learn to trade profitably and let those things take care of themselves(they will). The reason being the factors are to large. For example what account size one is making versus their risk(the difference b/w 1-5% per trade is so huge, you double your potential ROI and potential for DRAWDOWN from just 1-2%). So if you are making 40% a year and had a 18% drawdown at 1% risk per trade. And now move to 2% risk per trade you are now hypothetically looking at 36% drawdown and a 80% return.
So where does this leave you. Well it leaves you wherever you really want to take your trading. IMO 1% risk max while learning(on demo of course). Because these questions begin to answer themselves. You have to learn your method(which won't be the same as anyone else, since the pieces come together). Also what constitutes a large account is variable to a persons lifestyle/country/means etc.
Hi everybody, how would you rate those two pinbars at double bottoms ?
Hey TS
Careful here these are both Neutral bars. This is when the open and close are in the middle of the bar and we have "tails" coming from both ends. Often mistaken for a pinbar, but they really show indecision in the market place. Nice areas to be watching though(esp gbp/cad).
In your second link above... the post # 54972 states:
As my account size grows, my risk per trade is going to decrease decreasing my max drawdowns as well as my overall ROI for the year.
Lets see if I understand: As my account size grows, I still want to maintain the same risk per trade. So my risk as defined as a % of my account would be decreasing.
Lou
Hey Lou
What I am saying is that as my account size grows, I would be looking to Decrease my risk per trade thus decreasing my ROI and my Drawdown(this is the key here).
Hypothetical examples
100k account 2% risk per trade = ROI avg = 80% per year with Max Drawdowns of 30% over the year
Same trader now grows accuont to 1 million but they can't stomach a 30% drawdown which they have seen based on their methods. So they decrease risk per trade to 1% which now effectively gives them all things considered
Hi, this bar is not a good pin by my criteria since I consider a bar to be pin only if both, open and close are within bottom third of the bar(top third for bullish pin). Other than that, there's just too much obstacles...
I don't think that anybody, no matter who they are can tell other people, how to go about their trading, in a sense of what they can or cannot do. The best we can do is give good guidance and advice, like all the seniors have done tirelessly here(which I am very grateful) and then its up to each person to decide which way they want to go about it.
Just my 2 cents.
Agreed, I just share my experiences, and how I think if I was new, or trying to become a profitable trader what I think the best steps are. They are different then the steps I took to be where I am now, but things are easier to see looking back on it and if I can even slightly speed up someones learning curve then I am grateful
we have nice pin bar on the daily.can we say that we have confluence with the fib 50 and the ppz,because fib 50 is at 2.2300 and ppz is at 2.2200? there is also a ppz at 2.2300.
i want to go long at this pair.when i check the 4H i see that we have also a small pin bar right off the PPZ.
when i check the 1H chart i see a BUOB right on the PPZ,and it looks like a breakout trade.if i enter with the 1H chart would that be logical?because it includes a small pin bar on the 4H and a very good looking pin bar on the daily?
in your opinion...
Hey Kay
I answered you in the PF but in case you might see this first
Hey Kayhan
Personally I never go down in timeframes like this to try to enter into a trade. Too me this leads to analysis paralysis. I base my decision on the same timeframe to decide if it is a good trade or not. Based on the daily I would say this is a pinbar in a lot of traffic and more importantly it went to the first trouble area you marked down already(your top blue line). So trying to re-enter now feels as if you might be trying to chase a trade that is potentially over. Now I am not saying your analysis is wrong though, so that is important to note. That is up to you to decide. This would just be my personal opinion based on how I trade. And to add today is a dead holiday day as we can see by lack of movement so I wouldn't be looking to push it on the lower timeframes and get involved in such a dead market as well.
Thanks for your quick response. Too bad that you still have to work today. So much for a true banking holiday eh?
Did in fact notice the calmness today. Haven't checked the D1 charts yet, so I wouldn't know if there's anything juicy in the making, but having checked the FF calendar after wondering why it was so quiet today I immediately wondered about the effect of these kind of days on signal strength.
Boy
Hey Boy
The truth is you won't see many signals, except things like inside bars, or consolidation for potential breakouts since things come to a screeching halt on these days anyway. Size of bars is very important to my personal methods, so it sort of has the built in safety net to keep me out of sloppy signals off days like this
Hello.. is there anyone who can offer a suggestion regarding a problem watching the videos in James16 Group guest material?
I have been through them all but part way through the picture just vanishes, in particular during the longer ones.
I have just downloaded and watching again the Rants and Charts, and just like the first time, the picture has gone blank at about 37 minutes into it. Leaving over an hour where I can't see the charts!...
Hey Cherry
Make sure your windows media player is fully updated as well. I would also save the file to your desktop as well.
Hi Mike (mbqb11), I know that BAT is not discussed here, but I've seen quite a few screen captures with them... how do you use the BAT lines in your method? If I follow the BAT rules, on a daily TF the SL would be prohibitively large: 10 pips below/above the recent swing low/high.
Hey Albertsy
It is one of the tools in my box when I trail my stop. I use it for trailing a stop, mostly from breakout pattern trades on the lower timeframes(usually 1hr and lower).
@ mbqb11 : I'm studying this thread... and I'd like to backtest some of these setups. What can I use? Forex tester is good? What do you use for backtesting?
ty
Hey AQs (poker guy huh )
I think forextester is super great and its cheap for what it does. You can also just use the f12 button with mt4 and it will go bar by bar. Both are viable depending on what you are looking for, I have done both in my backtesting
Mike is it hard to trade in the middle of the night (3 am there?) - to be completely focused after a whole day?
I guess we are kindda privileged here in Europe. At least i think so. Maybe some would disagree.
Go London make me a pinbar!
Sure would be easier , but I make out ok. Some days you sleep more then others. I set alarms , and I am not mad when I miss something(that mad at least).
I think the aussies have it the best (aussie aussie aussie OY OY O Y! right?)
I'm in the FLORIDA. My father had taken ill over the Holidays and has recovered so well that he was fit enough to return home to FLA. So I drove both my parents down here over the weekend and will stay for a bout a week.
Goodby Michigan snow . . . . at least for a week.
Glad to hear he is doing well Jim
Enjoy some FL sun, it is snowing here AGAIN...enough winter wonderland
Yeah i know there isnt only one answer...but like mike says i want to maximize the pottential of this trade. I have no problem with retracements but should i be scared of each 15 min retrace. But of course i have no idea how much i am willing to give back. I am thinking of looking at it like a 1h trade with a SL around 1.5720 and trail this thing under each support and resistance.
thank you
Lan
Hey Lan
When I am trading of a timeframe and price goes Straight up liek a rocket like that I tend to trail out under the low of each bar. Now if you decide you want to move the trade to a 1hr, 4hr, daily trade for whatever reason then you have to re-evaluate and make a decision based on that. There isn't really a right or a wrong as you would imagine, just be as objective as possible so that you don't let greed or fear come in.
These are the slam dunks we was to trade. I think ghous caught that one.
For me it was a break even. Well, not every trade is a party...but what were the odds of loosing my money on this type of trade with smart management?
What do you guys think of this Pin on the kiwi/chf, i've set the entry at .7485 to give it a good break of the nice .7500. SL is .7685 so 100 pips risk but if it breaks not much in it's way south from here to the low .73's
Hey Tree
As always just my view here, but one of my big rules is not to trade into large round numbers like 7500, this bar had a very weak close, which makes it a sloppy bar in my book personally. If a close was say under 7500 I would have much more confidence. I see you trying to protect yourself but where your sell stop is is right on a prior bar low and a TBH to the left, so essentially right at the first trouble area where we could see a bounce. THis is just what I would watch out for personally.
Thank Mike, I missed the TBH at my entry. i've moved the entry down 10 pips to give it a break of the TBH but also reduced my SL & moved it just above the 4 high bars to the left at .7535
Hey Tree
Not to get real picky and pick on you but my last point would be now your entry is so much lower that price from that bar alone has already done what we expected and at that point could very well bounce all the way back and would not surprise me. Those 35 pips are so are the "where is price likely to go" from that bar alone. After that it is more in the hands of the markets with such a setup.
Is this good divergence? I don't know if that first dip before the actual "divergence" voids it. I was thinking of entering on the break of the inside bar.
Is this a good trade?
Thanks
Hey Lamdun
I personally wouldn't use that peak, I would be looking to use the major peak as too me that is going to hold a lot more significance. So if price gets past that last low and makes a new low and the macd can not make a new low. Then we have some great potentials. Right now the eur/chf specifically is under some heavy intervention and this is why we have this crazy PA very tight winding and then spikes. I would be very weary to try to long based on an IB without much more information.
Actually just watched your divergence video so got a bit excited about finding them in the charts haha
And yea, i thought that the pair's PA was very weird. What exactly do you mean by intervention by the way? From the central banks? What are their goals?
haha glad to see you looking to apply it, divergence is a great heads up and additional confluence. It can be deadly when applied at certain spots. Some of my favorite plays are Divg + Large PA after a false breakout at a round number.
Basically the central bank or the SNB(swiss national bank) wants to keep their currency above a certain point. Their goals are that the rates start to effect a lot of things they took a stand not to long ago at 1.5 that lasted for months, but the markets will is the markets will. It is something you will just take note of when it happens from time to time. PA still works but we just take note of the 'environment'.
Hey Mike what's you view EU 1H pin. I mean what rating would you give it.
thanks
.
I assume you mean the 1hr pin that started the huge sell off? Not big enough for me intraday and not a level I would have trade off, but I do love how price consolidated false broke out higher and pinned.
Potential small pin bar on CHFJPY 4 hour at PPZ. If it breaks maybe back to 83.90?
Hey C
WHen the body of the bar(distance b/w open and close) is bout the same as the tail then it really isn't a pin. We want a long nose to protrude away from prior bar to indicated the "lie"
Im going to have to get a indicator for news events. Anyone know of one for mt4?
I will save you more headache, don't even worry about it. To be completely honest, you don't need it.
James says "I avoid the news like the plague". Meaning he pays no attention to it. I am not saying some can't and don't use it for good, but it is not necessary to turn a profit or develop a method to withdraw from the markets. Most are more harmed then helped by it.
Do you mean, just ignore the news, it might take your stop out sometimes, it might give you a bit more profit other times, but overall it will balance out?
Well i believe it is all built into a chart as a techy. Meaning if I correctly analyze a chart i am seeing all I need to see. So if anything the "news" will support me.
Do you like the 2 day false breakout on the GBPUSD?
I saw this kind of pattern happen over and over, but never have a chance to pull the trigger on my live account.
Do you guys usually like this kind of false breakout? It seems most of time it give a false breakout on the pattern, it will reverse on the direction very quickly.
What is your opinion about this kind of pattern false breakout trade?
Thanks
PM
Hey PM
for sure, there is a nice little story that can be told, I often incorporate false breakouts like this with my intraday trading It can be a nice compliment
james16 Chart Thread
Kudos to you!!
