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  #57013  
Old Mar 3, 2010 8:54am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
i made more then 1000% in a week.
.
I made 5000% this morning when I asked my girlfriend for a dollar coin for the coke machine at work and found a $50 note in her wallet.

I should so write an ebook.

...
Looking for some action on AUDUSD. Let's see if the Ghost or the Darkness is waiting above 0.9060. Then sleep.

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  #57015  
Old Mar 3, 2010 9:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
5000%

Don't bet this big (specially against the trend), or you may end up
.
rofl. well played, sir
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  #57013  
Old Mar 3, 2010 8:54am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
i made more then 1000% in a week.
.
I made 5000% this morning when I asked my girlfriend for a dollar coin for the coke machine at work and found a $50 note in her wallet.

I should so write an ebook.

...
Looking for some action on AUDUSD. Let's see if the Ghost or the Darkness is waiting above 0.9060. Then sleep.

Click image for larger version

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  #57015  
Old Mar 3, 2010 9:05am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
5000%

Don't bet this big (specially against the trend), or you may end up
.
rofl. well played, sir
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  #57094  
Old Mar 3, 2010 4:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
Today's quest in finding an appropriate broker actually proved to be quite fruitful .... in that I was able to find brokers offering micro lot access for coffee, sugar, wheat etc. and even Bund and Eurodollars. These however were CFD's ... does anyone know how these compare to the regular futures one can trade DMA?
CFDs are a bit of a gamble. There are some honest players, but there are many, many shady ones.

A CFD is different from a future in that you arent trading the actual instrument, you are trading a derivative contract with your broker under which you gain/lose based (often very loosely) on the movement of the underlying instrument.

That's how your broker can offer microlots over sugar, currency adjusted spot gold, etc.

Some will then hedge your trade into the market, but many wont. And so, with these latter ones, everything you gain - they lose. And conversely, everything you lose... they gain. And they control the data. I see a tiny conflict of interest here. Something akin to a fox guarding the henhouse, or whatever the saying is.

So you see all kinds of shady behaviour. Large spreads, huge slippage (probably the biggest problem), random spikes, etc.

Not all are bad. I use one now and then for backup and special situations. But for everyday trading, I cant think of any reason that you would want to go for a CFD provider over a real broker with real market data and actual execution.. just guard your grill

(also, I believe there are some tax advantages for UK residents? So there might be a lower concentration of dodgy players there if people have a legitimate reason to use them.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
At first glance however (certainly as far as CFD's are concerned) is that there does not seem to be as much PA as in FOREX.
Unless your broker is playing games, you will see the same PA on a CFD as on a futures or forex chart. It doesnt strictly meet the definition, but if their contracts got too out of line with the underlying, there would be an arbitrage-like situation as you suggest (more of a pairs trade, possibly?).
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  #57094  
Old Mar 3, 2010 4:57pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
Today's quest in finding an appropriate broker actually proved to be quite fruitful .... in that I was able to find brokers offering micro lot access for coffee, sugar, wheat etc. and even Bund and Eurodollars. These however were CFD's ... does anyone know how these compare to the regular futures one can trade DMA?
CFDs are a bit of a gamble. There are some honest players, but there are many, many shady ones.

A CFD is different from a future in that you arent trading the actual instrument, you are trading a derivative contract with your broker under which you gain/lose based (often very loosely) on the movement of the underlying instrument.

That's how your broker can offer microlots over sugar, currency adjusted spot gold, etc.

Some will then hedge your trade into the market, but many wont. And so, with these latter ones, everything you gain - they lose. And conversely, everything you lose... they gain. And they control the data. I see a tiny conflict of interest here. Something akin to a fox guarding the henhouse, or whatever the saying is.

So you see all kinds of shady behaviour. Large spreads, huge slippage (probably the biggest problem), random spikes, etc.

Not all are bad. I use one now and then for backup and special situations. But for everyday trading, I cant think of any reason that you would want to go for a CFD provider over a real broker with real market data and actual execution.. just guard your grill

(also, I believe there are some tax advantages for UK residents? So there might be a lower concentration of dodgy players there if people have a legitimate reason to use them.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
At first glance however (certainly as far as CFD's are concerned) is that there does not seem to be as much PA as in FOREX.
Unless your broker is playing games, you will see the same PA on a CFD as on a futures or forex chart. It doesnt strictly meet the definition, but if their contracts got too out of line with the underlying, there would be an arbitrage-like situation as you suggest (more of a pairs trade, possibly?).
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  #57109  
Old Mar 3, 2010 5:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
CFD's don't have any holding periods, like stocks do. You can also trade off leverage, without being hit with a 7 percent interest fee per year (or whatever it is).
*edit* duh, you probably mean tax. I know we have some stupid holding period rules here for capgains. not sure what they are there, but I would assume that they are instrument agnostic- we get the same tax rate whether dealing in stocks, futures, CFDs (unless they are tax free because the Government considers them gambling products) or alaskan malamutes.

As for interest, if you are trading stocks, then the CFD house will charge you interest on your position. Usually around OCR/LIBOR +300bps (and naturally, they pay OCR -300bps on shorts), depending on the instrument. What's really insidious though is how they calcuate the interest. With a margin loan, you pay interest on the amount you originally borrowed. With a CFD, you pay interest on the entire position.

Say you enter a $10k position with $1k. They charge you interest on $10k, rather than the $9k you borrowed. Kinda sucky, but whatever.

The best part is what happens when your dodgy penny stock shoots through the roof and becomes a ten bagger. Now you have a $100k position. Congrats! You are rich(ish)! Your friendly CFD broker will now be charging you interest on the entire $100k. Even though you only borrowed $9k.

Pretty sure this is what the kids call 'fail'


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
Do you know of any MT4 brokers who you trust to provide fair data? Right now I'm looking at Alpari. I don't see anything crazy in the last few months, but before that, there are definiately some worrisome spikes almost all over the place (oopsy, your referring to CFD futures, probably no holding times)
I have used IBFX for ages, never had a problem. MB Trading and FXCM seem to have pretty good reps around here too.
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  #57109  
Old Mar 3, 2010 5:53pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
CFD's don't have any holding periods, like stocks do. You can also trade off leverage, without being hit with a 7 percent interest fee per year (or whatever it is).
*edit* duh, you probably mean tax. I know we have some stupid holding period rules here for capgains. not sure what they are there, but I would assume that they are instrument agnostic- we get the same tax rate whether dealing in stocks, futures, CFDs (unless they are tax free because the Government considers them gambling products) or alaskan malamutes.

As for interest, if you are trading stocks, then the CFD house will charge you interest on your position. Usually around OCR/LIBOR +300bps (and naturally, they pay OCR -300bps on shorts), depending on the instrument. What's really insidious though is how they calcuate the interest. With a margin loan, you pay interest on the amount you originally borrowed. With a CFD, you pay interest on the entire position.

Say you enter a $10k position with $1k. They charge you interest on $10k, rather than the $9k you borrowed. Kinda sucky, but whatever.

The best part is what happens when your dodgy penny stock shoots through the roof and becomes a ten bagger. Now you have a $100k position. Congrats! You are rich(ish)! Your friendly CFD broker will now be charging you interest on the entire $100k. Even though you only borrowed $9k.

Pretty sure this is what the kids call 'fail'


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
Do you know of any MT4 brokers who you trust to provide fair data? Right now I'm looking at Alpari. I don't see anything crazy in the last few months, but before that, there are definiately some worrisome spikes almost all over the place (oopsy, your referring to CFD futures, probably no holding times)
I have used IBFX for ages, never had a problem. MB Trading and FXCM seem to have pretty good reps around here too.
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  #57122  
Old Mar 3, 2010 6:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
What I meant was the holding periods before the cash can be reinvested. For instance, you sell abc stock, you have to wait 3 days before the funds are available for use again. Lets say you have a smallish account (me!), and want to play a fade trade with a tight stop, not only may you not have proper funds to leverage yourself properly at 1 percent, but lets say you do and use up all of your funds, your next trade must be 3 days away! I just hate the restrictions like that .
Oh, yeah. Settlement is a bitch. Most good brokers wont impose the t+3 on you - i can buy, up to a limit, without having the funds in my account. You just have to have them there by settlement date, unless you close out the trade beforehand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
mostly scares me though are price discrepancy's between feed and reality. If thats the case, then I definiately will not bother. What I wonder though, aren't most currency brokers bucketshops though anyway? Don't they have similar discrepancy's? I don't see what the major difference is besides the interest.
Equities and futures have a centralised exchange, and therefore a 'true' price at any time. Currencies are traded between a couple of banks (and then cascaded down a couple of levels til you get to retail - so your broker will aggregate and buy/sell to a bigger broker who will aggregate and buy/sell on an ECN), so there can be a couple of different 'prices' at any one time and you can get simultaneous trades at different bid/asks because they arent routed through an exchange.

(when you really get down to the microstructure, they arent that different though, especially with the newer exchanges like nasdaq. but that's beside the point)

Anyways, yeah - some forex brokers are bucketshops. Alot of them, in fact. They take the other side of your trade. What you lose, they gain, and vice versa. Whether this matters or not is something else entirely. Read DarkStar's post 'the structure of forex brokers' or similar, he explains it much more eloquently than I can. If you cant find it, im sure someone here (ie, mike) can point you to it

Aside from the usurious interest and the bipolar spreads, there probably isnt much difference in practical terms. The main difference is that with a forex broker you are (often?) trading the underlying, whereas with a CFD contract you never are*.

Like anything though, there are honest and not so honest players. I'd be hard pressed to decide who was scammier between CFDs and forex, as an industry though. Ugh.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 3, 2010 7:07pm
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  #57122  
Old Mar 3, 2010 6:55pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
What I meant was the holding periods before the cash can be reinvested. For instance, you sell abc stock, you have to wait 3 days before the funds are available for use again. Lets say you have a smallish account (me!), and want to play a fade trade with a tight stop, not only may you not have proper funds to leverage yourself properly at 1 percent, but lets say you do and use up all of your funds, your next trade must be 3 days away! I just hate the restrictions like that .
Oh, yeah. Settlement is a bitch. Most good brokers wont impose the t+3 on you - i can buy, up to a limit, without having the funds in my account. You just have to have them there by settlement date, unless you close out the trade beforehand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
mostly scares me though are price discrepancy's between feed and reality. If thats the case, then I definiately will not bother. What I wonder though, aren't most currency brokers bucketshops though anyway? Don't they have similar discrepancy's? I don't see what the major difference is besides the interest.
Equities and futures have a centralised exchange, and therefore a 'true' price at any time. Currencies are traded between a couple of banks (and then cascaded down a couple of levels til you get to retail - so your broker will aggregate and buy/sell to a bigger broker who will aggregate and buy/sell on an ECN), so there can be a couple of different 'prices' at any one time and you can get simultaneous trades at different bid/asks because they arent routed through an exchange.

(when you really get down to the microstructure, they arent that different though, especially with the newer exchanges like nasdaq. but that's beside the point)

Anyways, yeah - some forex brokers are bucketshops. Alot of them, in fact. They take the other side of your trade. What you lose, they gain, and vice versa. Whether this matters or not is something else entirely. Read DarkStar's post 'the structure of forex brokers' or similar, he explains it much more eloquently than I can. If you cant find it, im sure someone here (ie, mike) can point you to it

Aside from the usurious interest and the bipolar spreads, there probably isnt much difference in practical terms. The main difference is that with a forex broker you are (often?) trading the underlying, whereas with a CFD contract you never are*.

Like anything though, there are honest and not so honest players. I'd be hard pressed to decide who was scammier between CFDs and forex, as an industry though. Ugh.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 3, 2010 7:07pm
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  #57138  
Old Mar 3, 2010 11:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I farted...
.
I am seeing some strong PA in this thread today.

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  #57138  
Old Mar 3, 2010 11:19pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I farted...
.
I am seeing some strong PA in this thread today.

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  #57249  
Old Mar 4, 2010 5:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
whenever equites market are falling risk appetite for more risky pairs is incresing,like yen crosess, I'm just anticipating a fall in equity market so I buy yen

all the best!!
I think you might have this a bit twisted

Falling equity markets decrease risk appetite, and so people close carry positions (ie, short yen/francs and long aussie/nzd...sometimes cad or zar, but thats a bit different), which involves buying yen.

Conversely, rising equity markets indicate underlying economic strength and stability (ie, decreasing volatility), which increases risk appetite, which leads to carry positions for the interest rate differential.

(its actually a fair bit more complex than this, once you start taking into account shifts in the riskfree rate, bond markets and so on... but its friday, and close enough is good enough )
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 5:39pm Reason: i kant spel gud tooday.
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  #57250  
Old Mar 4, 2010 6:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
This morning i closed a losing trade, I picked a well structured PinBar, but it definitely wasn't an A+ setub, you could actually define it a B+ setup (not even A): it retraced from old bar lows, it was a bullish Pin Bar on a swing low (eventually).
I think people are getting a bit carried away with the whole 'A trade' vs 'C trade' thing. There arent discrete levels based on some kind of criteria - there are:

1. Great setups that punch you in the face and shove money in your wallet
2. Average setups that could go either way
3. Crap setups that we leave for the fish.

Why would you waste your time with the latter two?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
What would have you done if you were me? Would have you entered the trade? And if yes, could it be a winning trade for you?

Unfortunately, your chart isnt showing up.

But, given you already said it wasnt a great setup... yes, it could have been a winning trade, in that you could have ignored it and waited for a great one


Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
but my problem is that i still use fixed Take Profits, I'm learning on how to put the right ones.
What do you mean by 'fixed' tp? A set risk:reward type ratio? Because, if so, stop it and read Jim's 'this is critical' post.

Short version: look at where price is going, identify things that could stop and reverse it, and either take your profit there or at least shift your stops to breakeven.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 7:00pm
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  #57251  
Old Mar 4, 2010 6:32pm
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Looks like a bunch of people got stung on the franc crosses. I have like a dozen charts from when I started on Jim's material that tell the exact same story. I'd be so excited at finally finding a pin bar that I couldnt hit the 'submit order' button fast enough!

Unfortunately, little things like location, confluence, trouble areas, momentum and so on.. well, who cares about that crap, THERE IS A PINBAR ON MY CHART!#$%^

These f#%^ckers got me a bunch of times before I figured it out.

I'd be willing to bet that most of the other guys here have a couple of those charts too.



Except Ben.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
...
hi simjas, this is one of those bars that on first glance looks great and can sting us newbies if we are not carefull. the first thing i noticed though is that by my feed you shouldnt really be in the trade as it only broke the bar by 2 pips! that little buffer Mike mention would have saved you in this case.Also by my feed you should be still in it as it hasnt broke the high of the pin yet!?
The next thing i notice is that the bar is not very large, and as we are [b]trading counter trend we would want a more decisive bar, bigger with a longer shadow to really show a reversal situation rather than a pause in the PA. i do like the location though...lots of history around this price zone (check out the monthly/weeklies) BRN and the 50% fib retrace from that big down swing, and to be honest i would have expected a better break to what it gave! Another thing that could have warned us of the lacking momentum in this trade is how price behaved the next day, in a situation like this ( counter trend, not an A+ setup)i personally want a nice hard break to confirm the setup, and when it didnt come and price started to dither around the break i would have been out before a full bar loss.( eezy to say after like!?!?)
this is one of those setups where it pays to take care over the details !!
hope this helps





no need to reinvent the wheel when someone has made a damn good one already

this post would have saved me much frustration in the past. and like fifty bucks, which was half my demo account.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 6:47pm
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  #57260  
Old Mar 4, 2010 7:25pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp View Post
Up to this point I have only traded the EUR/USD, for the last year or so. As I study the methods of J16 I am branching out to other pairs. Does anyone have a handful of recommended pairs that would be good to study and demo? Are there any I should stay away from ect...

Thanks!
I rambled some junk about this a few weeks ago, i think.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The main criteria for me is volume. Volume means lots of buyers and sellers, so lots of transactions, so no sudden shocks. Volume breeds predictability, and predictablity makes trading alot easier.

But, if I had to expand my draft picks to double the charts...

The starting six
AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
First round draft picks
Second stringers
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Then you could add some ranging pairs

Damn you, FF. Always cutting off my quotes
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  #57249  
Old Mar 4, 2010 5:34pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
whenever equites market are falling risk appetite for more risky pairs is incresing,like yen crosess, I'm just anticipating a fall in equity market so I buy yen

all the best!!
I think you might have this a bit twisted

Falling equity markets decrease risk appetite, and so people close carry positions (ie, short yen/francs and long aussie/nzd...sometimes cad or zar, but thats a bit different), which involves buying yen.

Conversely, rising equity markets indicate underlying economic strength and stability (ie, decreasing volatility), which increases risk appetite, which leads to carry positions for the interest rate differential.

(its actually a fair bit more complex than this, once you start taking into account shifts in the riskfree rate, bond markets and so on... but its friday, and close enough is good enough )
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 5:39pm Reason: i kant spel gud tooday.
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  #57250  
Old Mar 4, 2010 6:20pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
This morning i closed a losing trade, I picked a well structured PinBar, but it definitely wasn't an A+ setub, you could actually define it a B+ setup (not even A): it retraced from old bar lows, it was a bullish Pin Bar on a swing low (eventually).
I think people are getting a bit carried away with the whole 'A trade' vs 'C trade' thing. There arent discrete levels based on some kind of criteria - there are:

1. Great setups that punch you in the face and shove money in your wallet
2. Average setups that could go either way
3. Crap setups that we leave for the fish.

Why would you waste your time with the latter two?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
What would have you done if you were me? Would have you entered the trade? And if yes, could it be a winning trade for you?

Unfortunately, your chart isnt showing up.

But, given you already said it wasnt a great setup... yes, it could have been a winning trade, in that you could have ignored it and waited for a great one


Quote:
Originally Posted by scott89 View Post
but my problem is that i still use fixed Take Profits, I'm learning on how to put the right ones.
What do you mean by 'fixed' tp? A set risk:reward type ratio? Because, if so, stop it and read Jim's 'this is critical' post.

Short version: look at where price is going, identify things that could stop and reverse it, and either take your profit there or at least shift your stops to breakeven.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.

Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 7:00pm
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  #57251  
Old Mar 4, 2010 6:32pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  458 Posts
Default

Looks like a bunch of people got stung on the franc crosses. I have like a dozen charts from when I started on Jim's material that tell the exact same story. I'd be so excited at finally finding a pin bar that I couldnt hit the 'submit order' button fast enough!

Unfortunately, little things like location, confluence, trouble areas, momentum and so on.. well, who cares about that crap, THERE IS A PINBAR ON MY CHART!#$%^

These f#%^ckers got me a bunch of times before I figured it out.

I'd be willing to bet that most of the other guys here have a couple of those charts too.



Except Ben.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
...
hi simjas, this is one of those bars that on first glance looks great and can sting us newbies if we are not carefull. the first thing i noticed though is that by my feed you shouldnt really be in the trade as it only broke the bar by 2 pips! that little buffer Mike mention would have saved you in this case.Also by my feed you should be still in it as it hasnt broke the high of the pin yet!?
The next thing i notice is that the bar is not very large, and as we are [b]trading counter trend we would want a more decisive bar, bigger with a longer shadow to really show a reversal situation rather than a pause in the PA. i do like the location though...lots of history around this price zone (check out the monthly/weeklies) BRN and the 50% fib retrace from that big down swing, and to be honest i would have expected a better break to what it gave! Another thing that could have warned us of the lacking momentum in this trade is how price behaved the next day, in a situation like this ( counter trend, not an A+ setup)i personally want a nice hard break to confirm the setup, and when it didnt come and price started to dither around the break i would have been out before a full bar loss.( eezy to say after like!?!?)
this is one of those setups where it pays to take care over the details !!
hope this helps





no need to reinvent the wheel when someone has made a damn good one already

this post would have saved me much frustration in the past. and like fifty bucks, which was half my demo account.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.

Last edited by joelcf, Mar 4, 2010 6:47pm
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  #57280  
Old Mar 4, 2010 11:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I think USD has been the key carry currency lately. We have been seeing shifts to JPY as US economic data improves. Amongsts G3, they're the strongest... however, I have this feeling that alot of big boys (read: funds) are still using USD as carry despite the massive uptrend that it's been in.
...
I actually think this is Emerging Market - US carry unwind... why they hell they're long when USD is trending up? IMO, the same reason so many busted out during 2007 - 2008. Not changing with the market.
There has been talk of the US 'carry' as a huge factor, but I dont buy it. I see the uptrend as just a return of a safe haven flow, now that people have realised that the US isnt going to implode.... but Europe might. Explains why its relatively flat against the yen this year - you have rebalancing between yen and usd, rather than everyone shoving their money into tokyo everytime they see a banker with the flu. Obviously, looking at JGBs, we can expect more us->jp in the future, as you said. Well, thats how it read to me anyways

The biggest risk I see is to the downside with all the funds unwinding big short euro/sterling positions, since no matter which way Greece or Spain goes, its going to mean a rising euro...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
But you know what! Whatever all these theories/news/info is, at the end of the day, WE MAKE MONEY ON PRICE ACTION. Everything people do, ultimately has to find it's expression in PRICE ACTION!
Very true, but I dont think the two are mutually exclusive. Find a probable future longterm path, get a cheap short term entry, buy Aston Martin Vanquish.

And regardless, its fun to talk about
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  #57260  
Old Mar 4, 2010 7:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcp View Post
Up to this point I have only traded the EUR/USD, for the last year or so. As I study the methods of J16 I am branching out to other pairs. Does anyone have a handful of recommended pairs that would be good to study and demo? Are there any I should stay away from ect...

Thanks!
I rambled some junk about this a few weeks ago, i think.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The main criteria for me is volume. Volume means lots of buyers and sellers, so lots of transactions, so no sudden shocks. Volume breeds predictability, and predictablity makes trading alot easier.

But, if I had to expand my draft picks to double the charts...

The starting six
AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
First round draft picks
Second stringers
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Then you could add some ranging pairs

Damn you, FF. Always cutting off my quotes
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  #57280  
Old Mar 4, 2010 11:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I think USD has been the key carry currency lately. We have been seeing shifts to JPY as US economic data improves. Amongsts G3, they're the strongest... however, I have this feeling that alot of big boys (read: funds) are still using USD as carry despite the massive uptrend that it's been in.
...
I actually think this is Emerging Market - US carry unwind... why they hell they're long when USD is trending up? IMO, the same reason so many busted out during 2007 - 2008. Not changing with the market.
There has been talk of the US 'carry' as a huge factor, but I dont buy it. I see the uptrend as just a return of a safe haven flow, now that people have realised that the US isnt going to implode.... but Europe might. Explains why its relatively flat against the yen this year - you have rebalancing between yen and usd, rather than everyone shoving their money into tokyo everytime they see a banker with the flu. Obviously, looking at JGBs, we can expect more us->jp in the future, as you said. Well, thats how it read to me anyways

The biggest risk I see is to the downside with all the funds unwinding big short euro/sterling positions, since no matter which way Greece or Spain goes, its going to mean a rising euro...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
But you know what! Whatever all these theories/news/info is, at the end of the day, WE MAKE MONEY ON PRICE ACTION. Everything people do, ultimately has to find it's expression in PRICE ACTION!
Very true, but I dont think the two are mutually exclusive. Find a probable future longterm path, get a cheap short term entry, buy Aston Martin Vanquish.

And regardless, its fun to talk about
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  #57585  
Old Mar 8, 2010 6:02pm
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Default A question for the aussies. both of you.

This might be a long shot, but does anyone here use an Australian MT4 broker?

I have a friend who wants to learn how to trade, and I think MT4 is probably the best platform to learn on - stuff like the IG Markets platform is pure rubbish, and she doesnt really have the capital for something like IB+Ninja/TS/etc... I could probably set her up a subaccount under mine on IB, but even then the minimum lot size would be a killer. Hard to teach someone proper risk management with minimum trade sizes of like $25k.

I also dont want her to have to deal with international wire transfers, offshore tax treaties (assuming she is profitable!) and the like, so that rules out pretty much all the big US and UK brokers.

The only ones I have heard of are FXCM Australia and gomarkets. The latter seem to have better (claimed) spreads, whereas I have actually heard of FXCM US, so I probably trust them marginally more. Anyone used either?
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 8, 2010 6:15pm
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  #57587  
Old Mar 8, 2010 6:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
I don't use them, but I've heard fxsol is good:
http://www.fxsolutions.com.au/platforms/metatrader.asp
They actually look pretty cool. Normally, fixed spreads are a bit dodgy, but its probably a bonus for someone learning - one less thing to worry about.

Thanks, will give em a trial.
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  #57585  
Old Mar 8, 2010 6:02pm
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Default A question for the aussies. both of you.

This might be a long shot, but does anyone here use an Australian MT4 broker?

I have a friend who wants to learn how to trade, and I think MT4 is probably the best platform to learn on - stuff like the IG Markets platform is pure rubbish, and she doesnt really have the capital for something like IB+Ninja/TS/etc... I could probably set her up a subaccount under mine on IB, but even then the minimum lot size would be a killer. Hard to teach someone proper risk management with minimum trade sizes of like $25k.

I also dont want her to have to deal with international wire transfers, offshore tax treaties (assuming she is profitable!) and the like, so that rules out pretty much all the big US and UK brokers.

The only ones I have heard of are FXCM Australia and gomarkets. The latter seem to have better (claimed) spreads, whereas I have actually heard of FXCM US, so I probably trust them marginally more. Anyone used either?
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  #57587  
Old Mar 8, 2010 6:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
I don't use them, but I've heard fxsol is good:
http://www.fxsolutions.com.au/platforms/metatrader.asp
They actually look pretty cool. Normally, fixed spreads are a bit dodgy, but its probably a bonus for someone learning - one less thing to worry about.

Thanks, will give em a trial.
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  #57623  
Old Mar 9, 2010 12:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
Pretty sure there are a few other brokers but none that have decent spreads and the flexibility with position sizing as go markets.
Called them up and they were really helpful, and not complete retards either, unlike certain other brokers who advertise nationwide quite heavily (you have definitely seen their ads) and didnt know what LIBOR or BBSW90 were (!) and asked whether I meant 'rba mortgage rates'. Ugh

Opened a demo with them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
If she is just learning though you can go with any mt4 demo account, best to do demo for a LONG time before live lol..
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
She's demoing first anyway. Isn't she?
Unfortunately, she is alot like me in that there is no point having a play money account, since the amounts dont mean anything and you just end up treating it like a video game.

So its pretty much a tiny account for nanolot trading as a 'demo'.

Thanks for your help guys.
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  #57623  
Old Mar 9, 2010 12:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
Pretty sure there are a few other brokers but none that have decent spreads and the flexibility with position sizing as go markets.
Called them up and they were really helpful, and not complete retards either, unlike certain other brokers who advertise nationwide quite heavily (you have definitely seen their ads) and didnt know what LIBOR or BBSW90 were (!) and asked whether I meant 'rba mortgage rates'. Ugh

Opened a demo with them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
If she is just learning though you can go with any mt4 demo account, best to do demo for a LONG time before live lol..
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
She's demoing first anyway. Isn't she?
Unfortunately, she is alot like me in that there is no point having a play money account, since the amounts dont mean anything and you just end up treating it like a video game.

So its pretty much a tiny account for nanolot trading as a 'demo'.

Thanks for your help guys.
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  #57682  
Old Mar 9, 2010 4:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonners67 View Post
Hey Joelcf, can I abuse your experience?

I use IG Index without issue. What is there out there that is better and why? Could you elaborate on what I am missing out on?l.
I used them years ago, so things may have changed, but basically, their charting package is horrible, their spreads are huge (for me at least, not sure about in the UK) and they kill you with slippage - even in quiet times, I would get like ten pips on each side. Add that to the 10 pip spread (including 'GSL premium', which they forced me to take because i was a brokeass student) and you pretty much have a recipe for turning winners into breakeven or worse.

Contrast that with somewhere like IBFX where I would get spreads of maybe 4 pips, no slip and MT4 (which is so simple even a baby can use it.. so I still struggle a bit ) and it really is no contest.

Once you use a MT4 broker, you will never want to go back. And it only gets better, and pricier, from there
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  #57685  
Old Mar 9, 2010 5:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wh1zz0 View Post
In addition to this, One important thing we should not forget is that this is a probabilities game and out of any sample size in probability studies you have to be available to take ALL instances that define your edge.

I can trade the smaller time frames but the only reason I prefer the daily and weekly is not because it fits my personality but because I understand that this is a probabilities game (of speculation) and I ask myself the crucial question which is - On the M5 or M1 will I be available to take ALL instances of trades that...
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to this.

The issue is variance. Over the short term, our results can vary considerably from what they 'should' be. Roll it ten times and you might no sixes. Do it a hundred times, you will get closer. A million? Even better. It's all about volume. Doesnt matter if we roll the dice ten times, then go hit on the hot girl at the coffee shop, buy a bagel and then come back to roll it another 90 - the only thing that matters is the number of trials.

(At this point, you can google 'central limit theorem' if you like, but the results will bore you to tears)

To wrap up this dicey (see what I did there?!) analogy, the issue isnt with 'taking every trade'. It is with taking enough trades so that the variance is minimised and you approach your expected value.

So, someone like Ryan who trades the 5m charts doesnt have a disadvantage because he 'misses' trades, he actually has a huge advantage over people on daily bars* because he can take so many more trades, which means his results are going to be much closer to their true underlying value than someone trading daily bars. Assuming that the two trades have the same EV and SD, someone on the dailies is going to take alot fewer trades and their results can vary much more widely before they start getting close to their 'true' return.

Also, all this dice talk makes me wish I knew how to play craps

* this isnt to say that it is 'better' to trade the 5m chart. at all.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 9, 2010 6:07pm
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  #57694  
Old Mar 9, 2010 6:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bapxyz View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
Say where in the FF can you learn how to make neat posts like ya'll with the posts in little boxews etc.
If you hit the 'quote' button (at the bottom right of the posts) to reply to someone's post, it should do it automagically.

Otherwise, the format is [q.uote=triger88990;3534153] textextext [/quote], without the "." between the q and u (just needed those so the actual code showed up). Your quotes seem to be missing the closing tag (the [/quote] bit at the end)
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  #57698  
Old Mar 9, 2010 6:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
I pulled the trigger based on many observation and something fundametal that I'm aware over time wich is interest rates.Knowing that interest rates are very attractive for speculators instantly we would expect capital flowing into the country which would carry on yen to rise,everything else is right on the charts.
Out of all those, only the AUD (and maybe NZD) has a significant interest rate differential. Euro rates are at 1%, fed funds are 0.25, BOE is 0.5% and RNBZ is 2.5. No one is short yen to buy EUR or GBP, especially in this climate.

If people are buying one currency for interest rates, they would be selling yen. Why would people selling it make yen rise?

Maybe there is just a language thing going on here, and you mean that the strong yielding currency (AUD) is being 'carried' by jpy (ie, people are shorting yen to buy AUD) and that's leading to the pair (AUDJPY) rising?

What you are actually seeing are risk aversion flows.

The other problem with that is that hot money isnt stupid, and they have a good idea of whether a central bank is going to raise rates well in advance of the announcement, and so any expected rise will already be incorporated into the charts. The only movement you will see will be when the news 'suprises' the market, or from adjustments made within (literally) milliseconds of the event (before the event, it might only be 85% probable, but after the event it is 100%).

Either way, unless you position yourself beforehand, you wont really be in a position to profit from it. Look at a calendar of RBA/RBNZ announcements and then look at the corresponding charts. For example, on your chart, the interest rate change happened on the 2nd of March, not where the big bullish move was.

That's the tricky thing about trying to incorporate fundamentals into your trading - it's never as straightforward as it first seems
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  #57700  
Old Mar 9, 2010 7:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
fell in love with the game on a trip out to vegas, ended up hustling a learn to play craps table at Excalibur before they ran me off.
That's why I need to learn it. There always seems to be lots of yelling, a bunch of hotties standing around cheering, people getting really into it and saying/doing crazy things for luck and it just seems like alot of fun. At a low house edge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
Bonus points if you can guess what the other one is
Unless you find a roulette wheel with no zeros, playing house way in Pai Gow is about the only one I can think of. But Pai Gow is confusing, I was way too drunk when I played it and didnt know what I was doing, and the people who play it are weird. Crazy drunk HK businessmen who start singing when they win.

I think there are a few weird blackjack variations that come close too, especially with basic strategy - singledeck with 2:1 for suited naturals maybe? Assuming you can find it.

(technically, poker has no house edge on the cards, but then you have the rake to contend with)
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  #57701  
Old Mar 9, 2010 7:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GotPips View Post
can we talk about gold here? how do people rate the daily pin?

my opinion: pin on the daily of a long term 38.2 fib. but just above it @ 1127.5 we have some ppz. go to 4h and a pin with l/r eyes, with a better entrance at 1118.20
You are spot on about that huge PPZ you would be trading right into

Some of them arent all that significant IMO (hell, if we avoided every trade where there was a previous bar, we would never do anything!), but I would be hesitant about trading into the ones marked in red.

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  #57712  
Old Mar 9, 2010 10:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bapxyz View Post
Thanks but I thought that is what I am doing
Obviously you fixed it with mental magic.
I think you might be accidently deleting the closing tag when you post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
Ryan was on the right track, the only other casino game to offer true odds is video poker....the bet: double or nothing, only some machines do it though.
ah. Video poker machines are a little different here - they arent allowed in casinos (yay, protectionism) but they are packed in every pub/club... with a legislated 13% edge.

Australia is kinda dumb like that.
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  #57717  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
The big boys and the SNB have left the house on this one for the moment.

They will be back though. This pair is not even worth looking at though imo.
It's stuck there because of the SNB.

(and a massive raft of options the big players are writing below their bid)
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 9, 2010 11:13pm
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  #57718  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
It turns out that it's a P&L distribution chart of 2 people flipping a coin.
In the LONG RUN, according to the law of large numbers, they should both have the same amount of money.
(It is also a "I win you lose" situation of course..)
But somehow, I (and he too) managed to "trade" (the derivative) of their zero sum game (zero sum game... sounds like the market huh?).
If they hand slotted it into 5min intervals or 15min intervals, I swear there would have been pin bars and PPZ. LOL.
(and it does sound similar to a 2000 tick chart...if they...
Larry Williams' old book does the same thing with coins and temperatures.

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=...age&q=&f=false

The temperature graph on p13 has some killer setups. I'd so be compounding a huge % of degrees celsius on it.

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  #57720  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
I know nothing about options writing but my point was that by what price is telling us there isn't much of anything going on with this pair at the moment.
Completely agree, I wouldnt touch it. I just meant that it has been the SNB supporting the 4630-4620ish level, so they havent really left the market...and there are some big options positions under it (100msih 1.4600 expire monday, and about 300m u/ch in the next week), so short orders are just going to be absorbed at the current bid by either the SNB or the big instos.

...didnt mean to sound abrupt, one of the problems with trying to use the dodgy iphone browser



This is what happens when I have a slow day and explore FF a bit too much: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=108462

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It's hard to tell who is being a clown and who is just a complete crackpot.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 10, 2010 12:05am
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  #57682  
Old Mar 9, 2010 4:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonners67 View Post
Hey Joelcf, can I abuse your experience?

I use IG Index without issue. What is there out there that is better and why? Could you elaborate on what I am missing out on?l.
I used them years ago, so things may have changed, but basically, their charting package is horrible, their spreads are huge (for me at least, not sure about in the UK) and they kill you with slippage - even in quiet times, I would get like ten pips on each side. Add that to the 10 pip spread (including 'GSL premium', which they forced me to take because i was a brokeass student) and you pretty much have a recipe for turning winners into breakeven or worse.

Contrast that with somewhere like IBFX where I would get spreads of maybe 4 pips, no slip and MT4 (which is so simple even a baby can use it.. so I still struggle a bit ) and it really is no contest.

Once you use a MT4 broker, you will never want to go back. And it only gets better, and pricier, from there
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  #57685  
Old Mar 9, 2010 5:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wh1zz0 View Post
In addition to this, One important thing we should not forget is that this is a probabilities game and out of any sample size in probability studies you have to be available to take ALL instances that define your edge.

I can trade the smaller time frames but the only reason I prefer the daily and weekly is not because it fits my personality but because I understand that this is a probabilities game (of speculation) and I ask myself the crucial question which is - On the M5 or M1 will I be available to take ALL instances of trades that...
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to this.

The issue is variance. Over the short term, our results can vary considerably from what they 'should' be. Roll it ten times and you might no sixes. Do it a hundred times, you will get closer. A million? Even better. It's all about volume. Doesnt matter if we roll the dice ten times, then go hit on the hot girl at the coffee shop, buy a bagel and then come back to roll it another 90 - the only thing that matters is the number of trials.

(At this point, you can google 'central limit theorem' if you like, but the results will bore you to tears)

To wrap up this dicey (see what I did there?!) analogy, the issue isnt with 'taking every trade'. It is with taking enough trades so that the variance is minimised and you approach your expected value.

So, someone like Ryan who trades the 5m charts doesnt have a disadvantage because he 'misses' trades, he actually has a huge advantage over people on daily bars* because he can take so many more trades, which means his results are going to be much closer to their true underlying value than someone trading daily bars. Assuming that the two trades have the same EV and SD, someone on the dailies is going to take alot fewer trades and their results can vary much more widely before they start getting close to their 'true' return.

Also, all this dice talk makes me wish I knew how to play craps

* this isnt to say that it is 'better' to trade the 5m chart. at all.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 9, 2010 6:07pm
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  #57727  
Old Mar 10, 2010 12:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i think what Sir joelcf meant is that price is being held or corralled by options (another way of saying the above)
pretty much. i updated it to make actual sense, now that I have a keyboard and such.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
i think i will sell when the SF bay hits high tide! Yep that will surely be a winner!
lol, please link us to your $129.95 trading system ebook (+ $299 for MT4 EA). Will PM you my mastercard #
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  #57694  
Old Mar 9, 2010 6:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bapxyz View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
Say where in the FF can you learn how to make neat posts like ya'll with the posts in little boxews etc.
If you hit the 'quote' button (at the bottom right of the posts) to reply to someone's post, it should do it automagically.

Otherwise, the format is [q.uote=triger88990;3534153] textextext [/quote], without the "." between the q and u (just needed those so the actual code showed up). Your quotes seem to be missing the closing tag (the [/quote] bit at the end)
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  #57698  
Old Mar 9, 2010 6:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
I pulled the trigger based on many observation and something fundametal that I'm aware over time wich is interest rates.Knowing that interest rates are very attractive for speculators instantly we would expect capital flowing into the country which would carry on yen to rise,everything else is right on the charts.
Out of all those, only the AUD (and maybe NZD) has a significant interest rate differential. Euro rates are at 1%, fed funds are 0.25, BOE is 0.5% and RNBZ is 2.5. No one is short yen to buy EUR or GBP, especially in this climate.

If people are buying one currency for interest rates, they would be selling yen. Why would people selling it make yen rise?

Maybe there is just a language thing going on here, and you mean that the strong yielding currency (AUD) is being 'carried' by jpy (ie, people are shorting yen to buy AUD) and that's leading to the pair (AUDJPY) rising?

What you are actually seeing are risk aversion flows.

The other problem with that is that hot money isnt stupid, and they have a good idea of whether a central bank is going to raise rates well in advance of the announcement, and so any expected rise will already be incorporated into the charts. The only movement you will see will be when the news 'suprises' the market, or from adjustments made within (literally) milliseconds of the event (before the event, it might only be 85% probable, but after the event it is 100%).

Either way, unless you position yourself beforehand, you wont really be in a position to profit from it. Look at a calendar of RBA/RBNZ announcements and then look at the corresponding charts. For example, on your chart, the interest rate change happened on the 2nd of March, not where the big bullish move was.

That's the tricky thing about trying to incorporate fundamentals into your trading - it's never as straightforward as it first seems
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  #57700  
Old Mar 9, 2010 7:02pm
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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
fell in love with the game on a trip out to vegas, ended up hustling a learn to play craps table at Excalibur before they ran me off.
That's why I need to learn it. There always seems to be lots of yelling, a bunch of hotties standing around cheering, people getting really into it and saying/doing crazy things for luck and it just seems like alot of fun. At a low house edge.

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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
Bonus points if you can guess what the other one is
Unless you find a roulette wheel with no zeros, playing house way in Pai Gow is about the only one I can think of. But Pai Gow is confusing, I was way too drunk when I played it and didnt know what I was doing, and the people who play it are weird. Crazy drunk HK businessmen who start singing when they win.

I think there are a few weird blackjack variations that come close too, especially with basic strategy - singledeck with 2:1 for suited naturals maybe? Assuming you can find it.

(technically, poker has no house edge on the cards, but then you have the rake to contend with)
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  #57701  
Old Mar 9, 2010 7:43pm
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Originally Posted by GotPips View Post
can we talk about gold here? how do people rate the daily pin?

my opinion: pin on the daily of a long term 38.2 fib. but just above it @ 1127.5 we have some ppz. go to 4h and a pin with l/r eyes, with a better entrance at 1118.20
You are spot on about that huge PPZ you would be trading right into

Some of them arent all that significant IMO (hell, if we avoided every trade where there was a previous bar, we would never do anything!), but I would be hesitant about trading into the ones marked in red.

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  #57712  
Old Mar 9, 2010 10:48pm
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Originally Posted by bapxyz View Post
Thanks but I thought that is what I am doing
Obviously you fixed it with mental magic.
I think you might be accidently deleting the closing tag when you post.

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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
Ryan was on the right track, the only other casino game to offer true odds is video poker....the bet: double or nothing, only some machines do it though.
ah. Video poker machines are a little different here - they arent allowed in casinos (yay, protectionism) but they are packed in every pub/club... with a legislated 13% edge.

Australia is kinda dumb like that.
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  #57717  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:01pm
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Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
The big boys and the SNB have left the house on this one for the moment.

They will be back though. This pair is not even worth looking at though imo.
It's stuck there because of the SNB.

(and a massive raft of options the big players are writing below their bid)
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 9, 2010 11:13pm
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  #57718  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:10pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
It turns out that it's a P&L distribution chart of 2 people flipping a coin.
In the LONG RUN, according to the law of large numbers, they should both have the same amount of money.
(It is also a "I win you lose" situation of course..)
But somehow, I (and he too) managed to "trade" (the derivative) of their zero sum game (zero sum game... sounds like the market huh?).
If they hand slotted it into 5min intervals or 15min intervals, I swear there would have been pin bars and PPZ. LOL.
(and it does sound similar to a 2000 tick chart...if they...
Larry Williams' old book does the same thing with coins and temperatures.

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=...age&q=&f=false

The temperature graph on p13 has some killer setups. I'd so be compounding a huge % of degrees celsius on it.

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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 10, 2010 12:57am
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  #57720  
Old Mar 9, 2010 11:39pm
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Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
I know nothing about options writing but my point was that by what price is telling us there isn't much of anything going on with this pair at the moment.
Completely agree, I wouldnt touch it. I just meant that it has been the SNB supporting the 4630-4620ish level, so they havent really left the market...and there are some big options positions under it (100msih 1.4600 expire monday, and about 300m u/ch in the next week), so short orders are just going to be absorbed at the current bid by either the SNB or the big instos.

...didnt mean to sound abrupt, one of the problems with trying to use the dodgy iphone browser



This is what happens when I have a slow day and explore FF a bit too much: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=108462

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It's hard to tell who is being a clown and who is just a complete crackpot.
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Last edited by joelcf, Mar 10, 2010 12:05am
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  #57727  
Old Mar 10, 2010 12:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i think what Sir joelcf meant is that price is being held or corralled by options (another way of saying the above)
pretty much. i updated it to make actual sense, now that I have a keyboard and such.

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Originally Posted by CrudeCraig View Post
i think i will sell when the SF bay hits high tide! Yep that will surely be a winner!
lol, please link us to your $129.95 trading system ebook (+ $299 for MT4 EA). Will PM you my mastercard #
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