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james16 Chart Thread
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Mar 17, 2010 5:24pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relict07
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Barrons has a chip on their shoulder about JC. The cherry picked example month, using leveraged instruments to enhance returns (and ignoring the fact that the price of the underlying is only one factor in options pricing) is pretty poor work. And from 14 months ago. If you look from 2002 to present, his record is double the s&p. His hedge fund record is up there with George Soros - who, being an economist, I guess also cant make as much money as a five year old kid
Either way, only an idiot blindly trades what some guy on TV tells you - I was just making the point that railing against 'the man' by claiming that talking heads know nothing and never make money is ignorant at best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by relict07
I had a conversation with one of my friends.
He's an Affiliate Marketer and the basic concept of his business was to...
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That's pretty much the worst idea ever. And pretty much what I would expect from an internet marketer. You think forex is a scammy business...
Borrowing to invest changes the entire game, significantly. You cant just wait in the bushes when you have interest bills to pay, you have to break out the scattergun. And putting more pressure on yourself while taking trades of lower quality isnt exactly a recipe for success.
And that's ignoring the fact that you are taking out a variable rate, compounding loan - on top of your already massive leverage. That's pretty much a perfect plan to go bankrupt.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 18, 2010 2:13am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I wish I didn't have to do the tandem thing off the start though I want to fly solo on my first time ...
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Once you swing your legs out of a plane door at 12,000ft, you will quickly change your mind 
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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 18, 2010 6:40pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bollocks
you still looking at a tax free profit outcome and even if it chews 10% off the profits it is better than paying tax.
i am looking into moving my operations to ig from an ecn in the usa. now although i havent opened any positions with them yet i still think all these small caveats are not bad considering.
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Only capital gains are taxfree (in the UK) - if your job is spread betting (forex or otherwise), the income will still be taxable.
Anyways, I would seriously reconsider. Between the basis spread on the interest rates (esp for mini accounts), the larger spread you get hit with, the propensity for random spikes to appear, the slippage in and out of positions, the 'controlled risk'/'guaranteed stop loss' premium, and just the general shadiness of it all, you will be lucky to come out ahead at all. Stick with a reputable broker.
*edit* also, there seems to be a ton of confusion about the tom/next procedure and rollover, but basically you should not be paying a bid/ask spread on rollover. It isnt done at market rates, no actual transaction takes place. RCL and ROP are synthetic transactions and have no spread. The difference between the two is the interest rate differential, minus the basis spread that your shady broker is adding.
It isnt like a futures roll where you actually sell one contract and buy the next, and therefore will pay a spread.
(then again, there are alot of shady forex merchants out there, so it would suprise me if some do charge you a spread that they never incur)
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 18, 2010 7:16pm
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Mar 21, 2010 1:50am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Anyway I remember Joel posting a chart about ruin rate or something like that in the past, can't find it now. Could be interesting to understand how the math behind it.
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I'm way too hungover to think about statisitcs right now, but basically for a broad spread of mean return/standard deviation profiles (which would probably incorporate most people here), 2% is the maximum percentage of your account that you can stake on each trade and keep your risk of ruin (ie, having a zero account and therefore being unable to recoup your losses) to a negligible level (from memory, under 0.5% chance).
Anyhoo, it was this post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
I made a quick couple of charts... hopefully, they help explain why 2%...
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the thing is, these are all generalisations. The 'ideal' % will vary from system to system, trader to trader, market to market. I think maybe that's why the 2% rule got picked up and promulgated - its easier to give people a set numer than to make them think about where it comes from and why 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 21, 2010 8:08am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkashifk
Now my target is not to make money, my main aim is to take only the best setups
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__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 24, 2010 8:36pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Do not 95% lose?
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Its a long complex and not entirely interesting story, but the figures from the survey that the '95% lose' that people throw around are rubbery at best. Closer to meaningless. But that hasnt stopped the guys trying to sell books to small retail traders (read: fish) taking that number and running with it. BE PART OF THE WINNING 5%, BUY MY BOOK.
And, of course, like most things in thihs business the number just gets recycled and retold, until no one really knows where it came from to begin with - let alone how reliable it is.
Proper studies have put the number somewhere between 55% and 75% - with different estimates depending on markets, instruments and the definition of 'trader' (day traders vs swing traders, etc).
I was once considering it for a thesis subject, this isnt just stuff in my head for no reason - swear 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 29, 2010 9:53pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
If we think about it market structure wise, it's in essence a bull-bear war... only one side can win, so we see an eventual "pop".
Magnitude varies of course. =)
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Or no one is interested in taking a large position either way
Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock
There is a bullish pendant on USDJPY, now its broken, it could go down 50% of that pole
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I think you need to zoom out and take the bars in context. Oh, and forget pennants/flags, because they are dodgy signals at best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
good observation & memory.
but hey, i thought u hate indicators? u are using a concept from Bollinger bands, lol 
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Bollinger bands hardly have copyright on standard deviation and moving averages 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 29, 2010 10:06pm
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Mar 30, 2010 12:29am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
WTF?!
Holy snappin' tootles!!! ...I better stop making money off them right now!
...before the universe collapses or some shit. 
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hey, if it works for you then knock yourself out  I just think both are pretty dicey.
Personally, I've found flags to be completely unreliable, unless you treat them like a retracement. Which, I'm sure you would agree, are pretty worthless in isolation. With some confluence, they work the same as any other retracement play.
And pennants are really just inside bars/IxBs (or, more correctly, range deflation), which are only really tradeable at the right location - the reasons behind them vary so much than a Technical Analysis for Dummies type approach which advocates trading them on a break either way is just a losing strategy. Trying to trade a flag caused by the leadup to a big announcement with one caused by a holiday period is just...
Just seen people lose alot of money 'pattern matching' - they see a formation that looks like a picture in their book, and so they autotrade it and lose $10k in a day because they didnt look any deeper than 'that totally looks like a descending triangle wedge flag breakout!'. A sad but true tale. And hopefully not something people in here would do, given how hard Jim (and Jim) hammer things like location and confluence into us.
(the amount this particular person lost trying to trade candle patterns was disgusting. would have been better off getting a bottle of single malt and hitting the casino. they have also written published 'technical trading' articles)
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 30, 2010 12:40am
Reason: dyslexia dOH!
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Mar 30, 2010 1:02am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nustra
you will have to be really smart and lucky to trade IB's successfully on a 1H timeframe. i learnt this the hard way: that is why after following this thread for years, i thought i could do it... you know, multiply my accounts and all those stuff.... anyway, i now realise i couldn't so am all out for James' methods and its working.
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People really dont understand the power of short term noise to take your trade, turn it around on you and beat you to a pulp. That's the real power of longer timeframes, in my mind anyways - smoothness and predictablity. It's also why people suck at trading the 5m tf, unless they are Ryan - they try treating it as if it were a daily chart. People dont think about how much money it takes to change a daily bar as opposed to a 5m bar.
Also, you probably have to think a bit more deeply about things sometimes. You honestly think anyone else in the world is looking at your random fibbonacci retracement you drew on the 3m timeframe? They arent. Which means that it exists only in your head.
The downsides? Well, you dont look like a mega-awesome-elite-daytrader unless you are standing at a desk in front of 12 monitors trading the 5m charts, Swordfish-style. Anything less x-treme is just sissy trading!
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I know they are great for the futures markets but do you find them great for forex too Jim? Just curious as the jury's been out for me on that one.
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Add yesterday's open/close and high/low to your charts. Usually, high/low works best, but there are a handful of pairs that the o/c seem to work more heavily - probably has something to do with the people and/or algos dominating that particular market.
Since then, I've added floor trader pivots, but only R1/S1, and only where there is an active, liquid futures contract for the same pair. I dont really use them in isolation, but they line up with PPZs pretty often, and when they do it gives a pretty strong area to watch.
Obv there is a balance there - some people take it to extremes with daily/weekly/monthly/yearly pivots, and then loudly proclaim how well they line up with their charts. Of course they do, retard, you just drew 400 lines on there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
can u share who this guy or these people are?
Thanks
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I was using 'they' in the gramatically-dicey singular pronoun form. And I'd rather not publically libel people with better lawyers than I 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 30, 2010 2:21am
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Mar 30, 2010 1:42am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
what the hell is a tax return? 
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The time of year when dumb people celebrate that the Government gave them back a small proportion of money that they overcharged them and kept for (up to) 12 months, interest free. Anytime someone think their Government sux, I challenge them to move to Australia.
Damn this thread moves fast. You look away for a week and its like an extra thousand posts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
Got any old links laying around? Love to see this.
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These are cut/pasted from a notebook, so they could be dead by now
Barber (2005) is probably the best jumpoff point.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=529063
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=600084
http://www.devriesinvestmentservices...iversiteit.pdf
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1343519
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=364000
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=472182
Most of my papers arent at work though, so I will have a rumble when i get home.
I also have a ton of scanned articles from the pre-internet days that looked at the same thing, but the landscape has changed pretty significantly since then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
There is such a body of folklore out here....
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Agreed. The whole 'trading author' scene seems pretty close knit (or inbred, depending on how nice you want to be) and it just turns into a big self-reinforcing spiral. One guy says something, another one quotes him, then a third guy quotes the second, and pretty soon the entire basis for the argument is lost, and it becomes the next 'cut your losers, let your winners run' or 'trade 2%'.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 30, 2010 3:26am
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Mar 30, 2010 5:10pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
There are people out there wasting their life doing crap and struggling to keep their family standing. People who spend their entire young years studying and printing degrees, and then get fired after after a few years with no way back.
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To be honest, those people will also fail at trading, or sports, or business, or anything else they try. Because they clearly lack either the skills, the intelligence or the motivation to achieve anything significant. I cant remember who said it (Mike or Douglas, maybe?) but people trying to use trading to escape from something almost always fail.
Starting salary for our finance grads is almost $80k. First year. And we are midrange in that respect. And ignores the fact that they can freely work and trade. What do you think the average annual income for a first year trader on FF is? Like a thousand bucks, maybe? Pretty sure I wouldnt call the former 'wasting' someone's life.
Good luck getting meaningful capital without working for it.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 30, 2010 5:29pm
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Mar 30, 2010 5:52pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
WHAT????
oh.... Australia....
Finance grad would celebrate in the streets for a month if they started at $50k in the USA....
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That's pretty standard for similar US positions too, since it's a very competetive and somewhat specialized market where people move pretty freely. I have two friends who did grad rotations in Chicago and were on 70k usd.
Point is, even at 50k, you are still making more than 95% of 'fulltime traders' on FF, so it's hardly a waste of time.
The End 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 30, 2010 5:59pm
Reason: Spelling + morning = fail
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Mar 30, 2010 7:28pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S
And don't forget the bonuses! Personally I would have loved to get onto a grad trading role .... problem was my mental arithmetic was not up to scratch. I distinctly remember an HR officer relaying some rather ackward numbers that I had to quickly calculate in my head, whilst she held a stop watch in one hand .... needless to say I was much too slow ....
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lol, yeah. I got 'square root of 100,000' and 'compound $1m @ 10% for 10y' as standard first round filter questions, before I even got to the actual interview.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
More recently college grads have been getting jobs at starbucks after graduation just because the 100+resumes they sent out didn't even get a phone call.
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Ouch. Although, having only just discovered Starbucks last week, I can safely say that you probably need a college degree to work out how much a damn coffee costs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
What do you think of this BEOB on Fiber daily? Move down, retrace, and continuation with BEOB? Only barrier would appear to be the bar high 3 bars to the left, if it breaks of course. How would this rate as a setup, if it breaks?
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I'd be worried about the highs from the previous two bars there - as you pointed out, they could be a pretty big barrier. I think the general consensus with these BEOB setups is that they are best at swing low/highs, but I like them as a trend continuation play. Would want to see a pretty heft break though... the bars arent big enough and the close isnt convincing enough for me to just push butan - unless it breaks so hard that Jaroo's head spins, I'd be wary.
(as a general tip, you should zoom out more to put the bars and their size/position in context)
Also, that's a pretty slick looking platform.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 30, 2010 9:58pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
I thought Starbucks pulled out of Australia? lol. Obviously not.
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I went to new york for a week - you cant go eight steps without seeing a SBUX there
I think they closed about 90% of their Australian operations - although there are at least two left in Sydney I have seen, with one close enough for me to get coffee-flavoured beverages loaded with all sorts of stuff that shouldnt be in coffee.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Trust me. Our family runs a business and it's more often than not the person who walks in the door or phones in at the right time who gets the job.
...Not to mention the old "It's not what you know, but who.".
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I'm going to go ahead and assume - based on screenname and location - that your family runs Bundaberg Rum, and propose that *I* know you and therefore should get a job testing beverages for their potency.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 2:46am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ira
Strange... I was looking at this trade too, but my 365 EMA is under the candle. Does anyone know why?
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You are using different brokers.
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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 2:51am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
(maybe 2 if your married).
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__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 3:31am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bollocks
question for all the old timers....
is there such a thing as a 2 day bullishbearish outside bar?
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I can only assume that you take both long and short positions after the bullishbearish signal triggers
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Gotta be kidding bro. More like minimum of -$1,000 
I've seen MUUUUUUUCCCCCH worse from morons who said, "I will trade my way to my first million in 1 year!"
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lol, my bad - i was talkking about the ones who actually made a profit.
both of them 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 4:12pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990
I don't know what MT4 feed provide it, I look at it over the internet
just google it:- usd index chart and you will find plenty of it.
PS: if anyone knows which broker had this instrument I'll be glad to know
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USDX is an index, not an instrument - like S&P500 or ASX200. So, without creating a complex synthetic, you cant 'trade' it. Which is probably why you cant find it.
What you can do is trade instruments that track it. There are futures contracts on the nybot that follow the usdx ( symbol is DX), options over DX (probably best avoided), and two ETFs ( UUP long, UDN short). Maybe some CFD brokers or the US equivalent (forex brokers who do spot instruments that broadly follow futures contracts) do a synthetic, not sure.
Just remember - if you have a small account, futures contracts are not for you. Risk management good.
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 7:50pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The Rac-man is good. 
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think you have an extra 'o' in there 
__________________
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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Mar 31, 2010 8:44pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Stop doing this to yourselves guys. Until it becomes engrained that fundamental analysis plays out in technical analysis, this will confuse you so much that you'll get analysis paralysis and take losses. The SNB doesn't matter and neither do the US payrolls (unless you're trading the lower timeframes).
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We should be careful to distinguish newstrading from using fundamentals as part of your trading. Trying to trade the news, as a small retail trader with an mt4 broker, is a ridiculous proposition and will almost always send people broke.
Using economic analysis to filter your trades (or, more importantly, trade directions or pairs) isnt a bad thing, at all.
Of course, you have to understand said economic analysis to begin with, which is where alot of people go wrong. Throwing around random statements like 'the SNB will intervenshunz!#$' or 'Greece bailout = buy euro' are just going to get you into a world of hurt. Which is where I do a complete 180 and tell people to stick to the charts
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
It's all in the charts. Trust me on that.
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I cant believe people still assume the two are seperate things. But then again, some people also think they saw Elvis at a Quick-E-Mart, so...
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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
Last edited by joelcf, Mar 31, 2010 8:59pm
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