I'm in GBP/CHF 2 Day PB. Good location. Off PPZ & RN 1.700. Decent size. Trouble areas/TPs as shown. Will move stop from high of PB to breakeven at 30+ pips and close half position.
- TTP -
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Nice one ttp. Looks real good.
Looks like the 1st area of concern is about 30 pips away. Here are my Trouble areas in blue. (which look the same as yours. )
Hey TTP, just wondering how your trade turn out. If it turned out to be just a break even trade . . its still a win.
This was a very good quality PA setup, which I give more leeway on my stop loss location or just place them were they should be place . .above the PA formation in this case.
Either way it was a great setup TTP.
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I should probably explain. I am out of this trade at 1.68 as I see a PPZ there and want to be flat over the weekend. If we get to 1.67 with relative ease and then head back to 1.68 afterward, methinks a good place to look for shorts again.
K.I.S.S.
Very nice Rog . . .why . . because it just makes sense.
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every time I left the PC and trun back I have to read at least +3 pages thats amazing, it seems that from jaroo's returns the thread have been in fayer or it could be the curent market condition.
jaroo it's the driving force that makes the thread going like a racket
anyway I do like the extra activity here, and the fact that the thread it's quite busy, and see that so many ar doing great..
wish you the best!
trade wisely!
Maybe . But the market is presenting some good opportunities as of late.
And everyone here is posting some really good thoughtout charts. Wihich is excellent.
But I do tend to get carried away at times.
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I am still in GBPCHF. Entry was 16855 and moved it to BE once price got below 16800. I have now moved my stop to 16810 as this area seems to be providing good resistance at the moment.
Jarroo do you think this is too tight for this PA based on the quality of the setup. 1.68 seems the next obvious place to move the stop but I also want to give it enough room.
Leon
Very nice ljr. I like your stop loss above the 1.6800 PPZ level. This is exactly what James and Mike teach us.
This is a high quality setup. On top of a potential continuation of a consolidation period. It may just reach the bottom, if not, we are protect with a nice profit.
I like it very much and I don't think its too tight. A close today below 1.6800 would be great.
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Well keep getting carried away.......I appreciate your posts and insight. Many times we have the identical zones and trades highlighted so it always nice to have a second opinion. On the others that we see differently it presents a great opportunity to see other sides of a trade.
Nathan
Thanks Nat. Yours as well.
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This will be nice if it closes as such. I'll be short and holding for 1.03 if so considering the daily setup as well. The retracement set up and now we're good to go with momentum behind it IMO.
Hey Mike . . . GJ . . . DD?
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HAHA I love it how friday changes everything. It really does too- I go from being a technology nerd who talks about work all the time to a sexy dancing machine! And the sexy part is nooo lie hahaha jk
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I'm tellin ya man, that is where it's at! Now that it's out of the bag, so to speak, I wouldn't be surprised to see 140 next week and a huge shit-eating grin on my face- and presumably yours too. lol
That 145.00 I saw as a potential problem, you never know with this chick.
So I played "free trade" style, half at 83 pip other half -83. I thought I was going to get stopped out but I didn't, so I like your 140.00.
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Out at breakeven on that one Jarroo, thanks for asking. Price had moved 40 or so pips positive, so I moved stop to breakeven plus 10 pips for more room. Got taken out, then price reversed and dropped again. Same thing happened on yesterday's GBP/USD Daily PB short trade, (price moved 0.8 of a pip up past my stop then dropped!).
I'm still only on page 400 or so of the thread, so maybe I can find some useful trade management ideas further on. Or with a few more months of taking PBs I'll be able to determine my win rate, and work out my own way of...
This happens to me all the time. "If only I would have placed my stop loss above (or below) the given setup I would have been fine." I would say to myself. So I do tend to apply this principle when high quality setups are presented.
Your tight management approach it is a valid one. Here's some ideas on this style:
Tight trade management can be defined as anything tighter then the ideal stop loss placement . . . which is above or below the given PA setup.
Look for PPZ levels (S/R), Round Numbers (the bold the better), previous Highs and/or previous Lows within the PA setup itself to place your tight stop loss. Using a random 25 pip or 50 pip stop loss doesn't make sense, let the chart tell you where the tight stop loss can be placed.
Example on the 2 Day PB Gbp/Chf in orange.
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Same thing happened on yesterday's GBP/USD Daily PB short trade, (price moved 0.8 of a pip up past my stop then dropped!).
- TTP -
Apply this to your GBP/USD trade and other past setups. Its a fun exercise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Look for PPZ levels (S/R), Round Numbers (the bold the better), previous Highs and/or previous Lows within the PA setup itself to place your tight stop loss. Using a random 25 pip or 50 pip stop loss doesn't make sense, let the chart tell you where the tight stop loss can be placed.
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I'm no g, but would not. Rumor's are flying again on..... about SNB intervention in eur/chf. (when? you know better )
If that's....., it might pull g/chf along.
It will be very interesting to see dow futures open with a gap on Sunday..
Back to the drafting boar, getting ready a new trading plan
I love round 10200 <-.->
It would be a perfect plan if I had one more '0' in my # of posts
Rumors, smumors . . . intervention, smittervention. The charts will tell me these outcomes.
Pssssst . . . . .seriously though . . . .what did ja hear?
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I agree with you. I always encountered getting stopped out because I've placed a fixed stop and not according to PA. Only to find out aftert that price moves in my direction.
I still have lot of things to learn in trade management. thank you all for the insights. I'm learning a lot from here.
Thanks pippito. The reason behind taking a tight management postion ( for me) is that a larger position can take place. And an understanding that a high quality setup can produce a high momentum move. Which can run to the moon.
The key to learning trade management or learning Price Action for that matter, is to keep it simple and clean.
Why? because its the only thing that works.
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My 2 cents, this might helped me more than it helps you
but also, if the trade is counter trend, or the PA is not too good or not in an important place, you should always remember J16's THIS IS CRITICAL , it's jarroo's mantra too
Hey marcelnyo. I want to make a few comments on your post here.
J16's "This is Critical" should be applied on high quality setup as well. "PA that is not too good or not in an important place (bad location)" should not be trade in the first place. Sure there may be a setup that's highly confluenced that's not a swing High/Low where this may apply.
Your chart on the Usd/Sgd looks good I would only suggest that you shorted up or fine tune your PPZ levels. Being to big can cause confusion.
The Pin Bar, sitting right on top of a strong PPZ level 1.4050 and at a swing high, was a high quality setup. Although being on the Christmas week would have kept me out.
Knowing myself, if I took this trade I would have went for the 1.4000 and then moved to break even or just above break even and would have been stopped out at the "X".
Please do not take this post badly, its not meant to be. I just thought I would share some comments.
Jim
PS. Was this part meant for me or James16?
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcelnyo
Jim, I know you're tired from all the hugging and people harrassing you, pushing you too far today... I hope you don't mind me taking the liberty of posting an example for him
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I Might sound like a fool saying this...but this was not A+ in my book. The market is range bound (though operating in fairly large range parameters forming those mini trends) and despite al the other confluences the fact that it came with no divregnce just didn't go ok with me.
I am just thinking of it in this way. If the move down to 1675 was 80% my monthly bills, would I still want to hang on to it over the weekend and fight gaps and early Monday liquidity problems?
"[i]Would I still want to hold on to possibly acquire finance to cover...
Well said my friend. Point taken and understood.
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Hello everyone. For the last 2 years i have read this tread (mostly in the weekends). I have been a passive reader. Now that i have more time, I started to day trade forex. In the last two years i have trade occasionally.
So, i just wanna say thanks to everyone in this trade, specially to Jim for the insights he gave.
For now, I attach a pic of Cable. What u think guys thinks of the wedge?
Good trades.
Welcome Fxjb.
Nice 1st post. Looking for great locations is what we love to do here. And what makes a great location: Confluence.
The wedge looks good. I like the area you noted. Nice confluenced area; PPZ level, 61.8 Fib and a trendline. All lining up at the same level. Nice. (More noticable on the 4 hour chart)
Some convincing bullish Price Action on the Daily (and/or 4 hour) would be what we look for to support a given PA setup. There may be some traffic issue on this one meaning we would like more space to allow for more movement, but it looks good.
Nice one Fxjb.
Jim
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Don't sweat it jarroo, I'd never take anything from you badly and the post didn't sound like it was meant for anything bad, too.
The "Jim" part was meant for you I guess next time I'll just call you by the nickname , because takingthepip's question was specifically asked for you, so I had to write something or else I'd feel very awkward about it later, again, I hope u don't mind
yes it was xmas week but it was so good I just can't resist, so I did risk 1% on it, maybe it was negligence in my part but it works, I even remembered...
Ok, thanks marcel. I just was confused about the "people harrassing you" part. I haven't felt any harassment from anyone.
Big PPZ levels. I used to make them too big myself and they caused me confusion. Once I started refining them down or smaller it helped me a lot.
Round number especially the bold ones, like the 1.4000 on the Usd/Sgd, can't be ignored. Shoot . . Mike doesn't even open a chart without these bold RNs already highlight. And he does it for a reason.
Don't ever feel awkward about commenting on a post, be it addressed to me or anyone. This is why we are here.
Jim
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So you see it's how you grade the setup and how you look at the entire situation that ultimately decides your MM and trade plan...there's no one right way except the one which works for you.
cheers,
g,.
Excellent post ghous.
Well done.
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I'm actually in this one, long from the 1.0300, so I have been eye balling big bearish PA at a strong PPZ level. I thought the 1.0500 was going to give me some indication but Price blew by it. Although I do not think that Price is done with this level just yet.
I like using the most current High and Low for my fib levels, but I do not think yours are wrong. This area you have noted with its confluence of PPZ levels, 1.0600-0650 RN, fib levels and trendline is definitely worth watching for some big bearish PA.
Nice chart bauerjj.
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hi yawl,sos if this has been posted allready, i havnt had time to catch up as im on my way to work, but just a heads up...
i feel if we can get past the 2.000 level then we could have a good trade...???
cheers
jon
hey jarroo !!! long time no see!!!! good to see you back mate
Hey g_j_ good to see you too buddy.
Weekly BUOB Eur/Nzd sitting a strong PPZ level at a swing Low on a Bold RN 1.9500.
The 2.0000 is definitely in its target.
Nice jon.
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This is not ideally looking pin bar, but location is very nice, I'll have a try, lets see what happens.
Hey datogio.
That 1.5500ish is indeed a good location. The Daily BUOB didn't pack much of a punch. That weekly PB could be a whole big, as I'm sure you know. We may be consolidation around the 1.5500, who knows.
A hard break of the Weekly PB could make the different.
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I'm looking at daily BUOB as a bonus, its still valid and all together might push the price above 1.5700, and yes i'm looking for a hard break. Jaroo break lol.
Nice to have you back
Good to be back buddy.
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I have question regarding the break of the weekly pinbar on the EURAUD, acutally I checked my Oanda chart, the price has already reach 1.5740 on Sunday. All other broker like IBFX or FXpro does not show the move because they opened late.
In that case, I think the weekly pinbar actually broked and according to that it is just an "Weak break".
What do you think about this?
Thanks!
PM
So this pair moved 40-50 pips over the weekend, depending on the Oanda weekly close. Well we can't trade on the weekend so we have to deal with what early Monday sessions brings us.
First off, would this weekly PB be something that we would even consider? No, probably not. Does it have potential due to it's location? Yes. But we would like to see some bold Price Action formations to overcome the recent strong move down.
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This is my first post in this topic, was this a valid trade or did I just get lucky?
Cable Daily.
Very valid as Mike said. The reason you feel you got lucky is because you did know or understand the make up behind this PA setup.
If there was a signature James16 PA setup, this one would be close to it. Trust me, there are lurkers out there that just trade these no matter how long it takes.
We have a 50% retracement and/or 61.8 fib retracement from the most current High and Low. Meaning, the Price Action (if presented) at this level will be with the trend. And we all like trading with the trend.
Now just find some confluences that support it. The Pin Bar has the 365 ema and a Round Number (1.6400) at this level. (The 1.6500 would have better because it would have been a Bolder number).
That's it. We now look for obvious 1st Price targets in blue.
Jim
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Another example. Rac on Dec 21 2009 on the Usd/Chf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Is it?
Here's your trend on 1h, 4h, 1d and 1w.
I'd wait for price to come down to 1.015/.02 and go WITH a trend...
..
Now I can't get in the Rac-man's head totally on his prediction of waiting for the 1.015/.02 on the Swissy. But I am sure the retracement levels from the recent High and Low on 12/21/09 had something to do with it.
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Another example. Rac on Dec 21 2009 on the Usd/Chf.
Now I can't get in the Rac-man's head totally on his prediction of waiting for the 1.015/.02 on the Swissy. But I am sure the retracement levels from the recent High and Low on 12/21/09 had something to do with it.
Yes, this was the one of the main parts of the confluences that gave me the go ahead of the weekly PB, . . . . which I'm still in.
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I am still in the GBP/CHF and Eur/Aud Daily trades
Jus thought I would post how I am managing an reducing my risk since both of these trades are in drawdown right now but at some key S/R levels and can still work out. If not whihc is jsut as liekly I cannot take a full bar loss.
G/C - I initall used a bar break stop to reduce risk right off the bat with this oe becasue of the support below. Price did hit that support and has now reversed hard the other way. Since my stop is reduce I am now goign to leave the trade be and hope that price does...
Hey dmc.
Not sure why G/C is in draw down. Maybe I'm missing something? Did you re-enter on the retest of the break?
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I like the 1.0900 but there is many hurdles along the way. The 1.0500 is the main one. If that can push through and act as support I like my prospects.
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Hello, i'm absolutely newbie in forex, 3 months of learning, reading, practicing, and learning and reading and practicing, but i am the lucky one as I found this thread at my very beginning. I follow very restrictly rules given by James16, and what is most important for me, what i have learned is AWARNESS of WHY am I loosing or winning. Thanks to this thread, members that are still willing to give support i am sure i'm on the right way to be succesfull in this business. This month so far i shorted pin on eurjpy at 133.344 and closed at 131.824 and...
That's excellent Nawry. Your ahead of the game.
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I am still in GBPCHF. Entry was 16855 and moved it to BE once price got below 16800. I have now moved my stop to 16810 as this area seems to be providing good resistance at the moment.
Jarroo do you think this is too tight for this PA based on the quality of the setup. 1.68 seems the next obvious place to move the stop but I also want to give it enough room.
Leon
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Very nice ljr. I like your stop loss above the 1.6800 PPZ level. This is exactly what James and Mike teach us.
This is a high quality setup. On top of a potential continuation of a consolidation period. It may just reach the bottom, if not, we are protected with a nice profit.
Hey Leon.
I bet you don't think that your stop loss was too tight now that the Gbp/Chf has ran back up.
Nice trade.
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Welcome, not the usual greeter here, but your post sparked a new and refreshed feeling in me. I long for your excitement and zeal when it comes to the markets.
A little bit of freshness will go a long way in my trading. What you inspired me to do is go back and look through this thread and I suggest others do the same. I would also pay attention to Clockworks thread...
He is a contributor to the James16 Private Thread and does a great job with explaining in depth Support and Resistance areas.
Well, at the risk of being long winded, I just...
You may want to catch up on this thread from say Oct 2009. Clock works is no longer part of the J16 Group.
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Hi, just wanted to ask if J16 uses other candlestick patterns... I know we only learn about BEEB, BUEB, BEOB, BUOB, Pin bars, and IBs(?) here, but how about the other types of candlesticks? Are they completely useless?
Other candlesticks or bar patterns can be applied to the J16 way. As you may know from understanding the J16 way, that these patterns are only part of the overall Price Action setups that we look for.
So other patterns are not useless, when used with the overall picture or story of a great J16 setup.
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Albertsy, Jarroo is refering to these: PPZ's, fib levels, round numbers, trendlines, 150/365 EMA, macd/rsi divergence..... learn all of that, and you will see how PA by itself is useless
Well said Dan.
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This is what caught me the most when I was touch trading...Every now and then the trend "seemed" to be reversing, and each time price would merely only stall and then continue with the previous flow and I would get stopped out. I ended up digging again despite knowing I was in a hole.
Mark (Raczekfx) has been trading his swings for 15 years now and the what's on his chart is not all that he is looking at. When he shorts on a bullish trend and longs on a bearish trend he knows, better than we can ever imagine, what he is up to.
I agree with...
PA with trend is always the best, i.e retracement PA (with confluences of course).
The Rac-man can spot these walls that stop the trend . . these heavily layered confluenced levels. We can spot them too, but Rac can fine tune them to a horizonal line. lol
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How would you rate such outside bars?? I mean these are not exactly at a swing high, they're not even at a pull back...they are right in the middle of a downtrend/uptrend...
what's your take on these??
g.
My two cents . . . . risky . . .for the reasons you said. But if the trend has turned over and now down (Gbp/Jpy) then PA with the trend . . . could work out nicely.
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It dropped about a thousand pips or so, I felt like crap but was determined not to chase it & wait for the next setup.
The remaining part is patience and discipline (preservation of capital) which I believe you can also cultivate. It's just as matter of time and your zeal to always try to avoid previous mistakes.
Cheers.
Great post wh1zz0. Good stuff.
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In U/cad i was stoped out , it was based on retrace of 4H BEOB.
EU long has 50% retracement, 1.4000 RN, Divergence and a little PPZ just below it so i gave it chance against the big trend keeping the stop below the RN.
Gold was bad trade i agree and both of them (for me). 1st short trade i took was with the trend but Big BUOB on the left was just itching me so when my BE was hit i took a Long but then it was against the trend and then i closed my Long while ago cause i got frustrated because i was trading in between a Range. ...
Hey nasir.
I understand we are at a good location with the Cad and even with Gold. Let the trade develop and come to you my friend.
I know you can make that happen . . . . . you do good work.
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Thank you for sharing that. It's good to have that reminder every now and again.
Ditto that LVG.
I make it almost a weekly ( mostly monthly) to go back over James' and Mike's posts and videos. It really puts you back on track. Although I do have a special liking to their tough talk rants. lol
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daily pin bar forming, with divergence. could it bounce off the major support?
The location is good . . at a PPZ level (Support level), off a round number and at the bottom of a consolidation period. So we are good with location. But the size is a concern, pretty small. (Much like the Eur/Jpy)
Is it tradable? Sure it is. But I would play it very tight meaning get to break even quickly or spead the risk by taking partial profits.
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I would be careful, if you combine the open low high and close of these two bars they do not make a pin bar. More of an indecision bar. We only want to play clear strong bars. Your other examples were better, but none of the pinbars I see on the jpy pairs today are really strong in terms of shape/length. This doesn't mean you can't play them, it just means location becomes more important, as does trade management.
My advice is stick to A+++ setups while you are learning. Also, be careful with looking back too far for divergence, usually...
Well said Cory. Thanks.
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First of all, thanks a lot because you give me the opportunity to "loose" 2 hours everyday by reading all the nice trades and explanation you post here.
Secondly, this possible trade definetely is not an A trade but it has some things we should take in consideration.
Two Bars ( almost same top-5 pips difference ), both of the rejected near the round number-10700 . Also, even if I saw that you are not using volumes as a reason for taking a trade, after a long bullish bar two days ago, yesterday the bar was short and rejected by the...
No mistake. This is a valid, confluenced PA setup.
Inside Bar at a PPZ level (1.0650) at a swing High with trendine line confluence. A break below the 1.0600 would be my play.
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Any thoughts on this appreciated - its a H8 EU chart - pin does not have the greatest real body but its sitting on a congestion area (not drawn) and has BIG div ... I will probably have a pending above it and see how it breaks ..
Also sitting on that big RN 1.4000. so yeah the confluences and location look good. But the size is what it is lacking. Few of thoses this morning.
A hard break would make the difference in my book. (if it breaks)
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I've been shorting EU based on the Blue horizontal lines. Taking a short at the break of the B-line and then again on the retrace. But i get confused about the quick retracements that occur after price breaks the support and makes a new low.
When price retraces back to resistance ( old support) many times it forms a PIN BAR and this is when i screw up thinking "should i take a short and go with the trend or take this PIN".
It's not a very big issue but i would like to have some helpful views...
I think this is where the higher time frame PPZ levels and their confluences play an important role when trading on lower time frames.
Your blue lines and how you play them is very good, especially in a trending market. But we have to be aware . . . as Rac would say . . .where the walls are that would reverse or consolidate Price.
Leave your blue lines where they are and go to the Daily/Weekly and mark your PPZ levels and see what you see.
The 1.4000 may be that wall and the PB may be its trigger to reverse Price.
just some thoughts nasir.
Jim
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Well, on the feed below the size is good. But I would like it much much more at a bottom of a ranging market, instead of facing this huge trend down. There is a big difference.
Personal choice...and tight management - You are good at this J.
Ben
The added support of a ranging market, yes I understand.
When I think of a good size bar I think much bigger . . . . like Mike size bigger. lol
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My question is: IS there any mistake in taking this trade, 10 pips below the last bar for a quick partial profit at the bottom at the long bullish bar from 26th January and maybe riding it on a bearish trend?
Thanks a lot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
No mistake. This is a valid, confluenced PA setup.
Inside Bar at a PPZ level (1.0650) at a swing High with trendine line confluence. A break below the 1.0600 would be my play.
FXMaecenas just wondering if you took this one. Good example of what we do here. (or at least try to do here. lol)
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Thanks for your answer. Before your answer I entered at 1.0590 so your reply was a confirmation.
So the next question is how did you manage this one? Stop loss above the IB or above the 1.0700, moved to break even quickly and/or took partial profits?
I believe you were looking for the bottom of the BUB from Jan. 26th. pretty close to a hit on that one.
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I really want to post something again, but looking over my recent trades and considering them under the criteria of "preferably simple, picky and ideal, without overcomplication" I am kind of coming up mostly empty
Almost everything now seems to have a "considering market x, I was expecting y to do this, and it did just that, so in turn.." component
(I like using "cross market confluence" if it's available)
//trailing off into a small rant here//
And those that don't aren't picture perfect "wonderful, clean setup" trades. Or...
Hey Seeking. Comes out from the shadows and into the Light. (Just kidding. )
Great post and charts my friend.
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I have been staring at this chart. It really is intriguing me as a breakout + pullback combo. I don't know if I can get myself to pull the trigger on it , with friday coming tomm, I am reluctant to just stay out lol
Mike
That bullish PB is making you with the 1.7000 right there yet the 1.1000 not so far away. I see what you mean.
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THis one is close. Everything is looking topish or bottomish so it could very well turn temporarily
This post is why I manage a trade tightly when all the confluences are not all "Yes". Meaning . . .location good, Yes. Size small (of PA) not good, No.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Well I actually look at breakout and pullbacks different then my stanard trades. I am less pick on PA, and then I tend to let it go, b/c if I am right and this is a "breakout" then price should take off and not come back under that pin
Interesting
Mike
I see. I think the chart is telling you that you are correct. Which is good because I'm still long from 1.0300. lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Decent size, prety good location, not at a swing high, though.
Definetely not an A+ setup. Playable with tight MM?
If you look at this way it is a break out, pull back type trade. So yes it is tradable. A hard break would also give confirmation to me. Tight MM of course.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Ucad presented a nice opportunity for a long @ 1.0560 in the wee morning hours while I was asleep, dreaming of green pastures and little bunnies. Nice bounce off the bullish TL starting @ January 21st. (4th consistent major touch) It is a significant trend line now.
A nice break of that, following the major upper bearish TL would be a nice indication to short.
Personally wish I would have hung on to my long from 1.0250.. lol. Me and my damn intraday.. :P
What was in your intraday that made you close your 1.0250. If I may ask.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Interesting.
I'm not a TL expert but, by the look of your chart, the correct way to draw the TL is ignoring the low of the PB (origin)?
Thanks for your feedback, jaroo.
EDIT: Actually it is not a pin but I believe you know what I'm talking about.
Trendlines can be very subjective, but I'm sure Tom Demark my not feel that way. And I may have taken the liberty to form fit this one. But the touches on each side of the trendline do fit.
When looking at PA ouside the A+ realm, the more the confluences they possess the more likely they are to succeed. If they don't meet this high standard then we wait for the next one.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Lets just say its something I need to work on, since I mainly focus on intraday london/ny overlap. I love to spot great opportunities, where I can take advantage of the risk/reward and capitalize on the leverage. So, 30-50 pips for me, could easily be someones 200+ to achieve the same result, with the same capital balance as me. I simply, take on more risk. Its something i learned from one my great mentors.
Although, looking back.. I'd say 1.0314 at the time was my area of interest / taking profits as a resistance area. Took profits once I saw...
Ok thanks. I was just curious.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Nice work on that Cad break out Aaron. My thinking is that a pullback PA on the trendline or wedge or triangle, etc. is a great base to support the setup. i.e your 1 hour BUOB.
What do you think of this on the Usd/Sgd to support that multi bar high. I think momentum is building.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Man it's good to see this thread swinging. I read every post. Have done for almost two years.
I do that because it's funny how you can read something again and again and again and it just doesn't click. I've read the James16 'This Is Critical' post so many times, we've even joked around about it on here, but something started to click with me this month.
I had a bad month due to a lack of discipline and over trading. No other way to slice it. I am going to review things and get some tighter rules on to cut down the discretion. Because discretionary...
Wow. Nice post there Aaron.
The James16 "This is Critical" was the formula that I needed to push me to the next level. All the time and practise prior to that . . . simply, obvious trade management . . . put it altogether. Crazy at is may sound, it was the less then A+ trades that help me realise the importance of the preivous High/Lows (Traffic) and that the A+ setups had the momentum to break through all of it.
It only took a couple of trades that went to the moon with my stops at break even that made me a believer.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I didn't actually take the 1H BUOB Jim, although I pondered over it for a while. I've been ill disciplined this month and paid the price so I was a little gunshy. And a small 1H bar can be meaningless against a big daily trendline. Could easily have been one of those 'two bars later the REAL bar appears' type trades.
But I wish I had now.... I am probably going to go in on the daily after we break the highs.
I hadn't spotted that BUOB/neutral bar with trendline pullback on the USDSGD. That's a good spot. It's rare to see daily bar highs line...
Your ahead of the game brother. More then you know.
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I went out with very small profit at the first blue area you pointed out ( 30 pips ), move the remained position 30 pips above my entrance and kicked out. when that long bullish bar appeared.
It was not a story with happy end, I would say.
Good luck!
Wrong wrong wrong.
It was a story with one of the best ending you could have had. Sure it would have been nice for it to go 1000 pips down but it did not. And you protect yourself, perfectly.
You know how many people took a loss on that? Or are still in this trade hoping and praying that if it would just get to break even they would be grateful to the gods.
Don't ever think that this outcome was bad even if once it stopped you out and then went to 2000 pips down. because it will happen.
You sir, are my Hero.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Out of interest Jim, when they do go to the moon how much of our original position is left on? A half? A third?
My daily bar close is around my bedtime so I can't babysit them during the Asian session. I need to pick trades that are still fighting by London open, so those ones that are less than A+ and need tight management are no good for me. I could be dead and buried by the time I wake up. (And I don't trust those new fangled management EAs... I am still steam powered... )
But then, anything that keeps my trade selection to just A+ setups...
I would say 9 times out of 9 it was half. lol
You should try the "free trade" approach (maybe you do). I did that last night and slept like a baby.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Speaking from how I trade the position, I took maximum, it's true. A happy end could have been if I could close that trade at Breakeven. I struggled to think how and when it will be the best to move my SL at Breakeven without making the room for the price, too small. Finally I decided to not move it after first target and maybe I took a good decision, maybe I didn't.
In fact, this could be the discussion: if in that case moving stop loss at -30 pips after the price reached +30 pips was a good idea or it was...
I think it was a good desicion to take half off at +30 and then half at break even because the break of Price was pretty strong.
The free trade approach (ex. half +30 other half -30) is always a great way to protect yourself while still giving more room for the trade to run.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You and I would be really good friends. Ice hockey is where it's at man. No other sport compares. There is no other sport that you can just run people into the boards, beat the crap out of each other for control of the puck and then get in the toss up in front of the net to get in a dirty goal. Nothing like it. I also think hockey is a sport that involves more brain power than your typical sports, but then again, I'd be sounding like an elitist if I said that. lol
All the talk about the legends, what about the new young guns- crosby, malkin,...
Ditto on the DD Weekly Gbp/Jpy. The 145.00 is a SOB. Thought we would get at least one Daily bar (entire bar) to close below it. We shall see.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Are you scared? If yes, why should you be? OR are you over leveraged? Why take the trade if you do not have a strong conviction about it? These are some of the questions you need to ask yourself before ANY trade.
In trading you do not need prayers neither do you need luck because luck is where preparation meets opportunity.
You only need 5 fundamental truths:
[list][*]Know thy edge & trust your edge (Show no fear).[*]Know that you need to predefine your risk of every trade (Discipline).[*]Know that an edge is nothing more...
Great post btw, wh1zz0.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Love the way u think - as a positive i see at least 3 h4 candles with long upper wicks at just about same level so that definately smacks of momentum building ...
Mike talks about battles going on around these big round numbers (1.7000). Some may be taking place.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
These are his exact words that plays every time I went to bed after I watch that Video, taken from the Rants and Charts Video :
[b]"You small account holders, you gotta make a choice, you have to make a choice, if you small account holders are going to watch price reach your first support and resistance area, and leave your stops at losses, because the move between here and here is not enough money to make a difference to you, Stop Right Now. Because it's never...
Great post Marcel. One of my top 5 videos from James16. I forgot how many times I viewed it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That's it man. Here's how I play pins anymore; I trade the break down to the first trouble area, in this case 1.6900 for me. After that, I just place an entry at the 50% fib of the original pin with a stop above the 61.8. That second trade is what will give off most of the runners IMO- at the same time it sometimes doesn't show up which is fine.
I'll be trading this one to 1.6750-75 area now that we've seen the 50% retracement and hold down of price. If it runs up again, I get stopped out and have a better inkling on price movement in the direct...
Nice plan. I like it. I like looking at these types of situation on quality PA, which I believe this one is, all be it on my 2nd half position.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That's it man. Here's how I play pins anymore; I trade the break down to the first trouble area, in this case 1.6900 for me. After that, I just place an entry at the 50% fib of the original pin with a stop above the 61.8. That second trade is what will give off most of the runners IMO- at the same time it sometimes doesn't show up which is fine.
I'll be trading this one to 1.6750-75 area now that we've seen the 50% retracement and hold down of price. If it runs up again, I get stopped out and have a better inkling on price movement in the direct...
Yeah as a re-entry position after the 1st traget taken and closed. That too. I was taking about stop loss placement on the 2nd half.
I like the way you think Mike.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I like it also but it's very possible to get a runner directly on the first break, so It's also possible to move S/L to BE (and maybe close half) when the first trouble zone is reached, and if it retrace inside the 50fib of the previous bar, take it again at the retrace (50fib). Seems to be a good compromise.
If it closes like a Daily Bullish Pinbar (as actually), would you consider this as a signal to close the trade ?
Not necessarily.
Let me ask you this . .if the current Daily bar closed just like it is now, as a Bullish PB, would you consider this an A+ trade? No. It's not at swing Low, no confluences that are obvious, etc. It looks more like an IPB, which would work in our favor.
Now holding over the weekend is a different story. I would want more pips under my belt to do that.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If I'm in trade at week's end with say 40 pips in profit, I will close the order. Because who knows what could shake loose over the weekend. If I felt strong about my position and things remain that same early Monday morning, I would simply re-enter my position.
If I was in profit say 140 pips I would hold over the weekend. Stops in place , of course.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i dont think people understand what a profound statement this is.
within it stands why what we do really is a way to financial freedom if we are patient, learn it, practice it and generally accept that anything worth having of this magnitude will take some work.
what a great feeling to know that if your on this road with us here your not busting your gut for nothing.
its been proven over and over and over.
show me another thread at any forum, show me any website that can say what they do has been proven to actually build accounts long term...
These are always great. Thanks Jim.
They provide so many things . . . .The importance of being patience, confidence, higher time frames, inspirational . . . . . and on and on.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i am looking to go long at the 1.3750. we have confluence at fib 61.8 and 50 and a strong support with divergence.
what are your thoughts?
thanks
Nice chart kayhan. Yes many are watching this location on the Euro with its strong PPZ level and confluences you have noted.
. . looking to go long . . . is a valid bias to have at this level, so we would look for strong Bullish Price Action off this level.
Example 1: Daily Eur/Usd BUOB.
Earlier last year in April 2009. Same relative confluences and strong PPZ level. But note the hightlighted area in Bisque (Bisque? it looks light brown to me), it wasn't falling very fast to get this confluenced level. It kind of chopped its way down making the BUOB a bit more easier to take.
Example 2 : Daily Eur/Usd BEOB Jan 2009.
Here we have the same relative confluences at this location but notice the highlighted area in light brown. The move down was pretty strong. Big red bars. To go long we would need as Mike would say . . . Big Bold Bullish Bars to compensate for this strong move down. Yet a BEOB as a continuation off this strong level and strong move down was not a risky a play if managed correctly. Although these BEOBs are best played off a swing highs.
Example 3 : Daily Usd/Cad Double Inside Bar (Dale's Double) July 2009
Same senario location wise. Price has fallen a long way, very hard. Big Bold Bullish PA for a long or common sense Bearish PA as a continuation.
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The current Euro looks to be falling pretty hard towards this level (1.37-1.38) PPZ, etc. I'm not ruling out your . . . look to go long . . I'm just saying that this situation with the Euro ( as with all good location where Price is heading) should be looked at from both angles.
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Could Jarroo or someone else please explain in detail the so-called "free trade approach". I have seen posts describing the movement of stops to breakeven quickly once one has a profit in the trade, but I have not seen anyone describe exactly how to do it if one wants to. Many trades take off and provide a small profit at first, but if you move the stop to break even after only 30 pips, don't you get stopped out too often?
is way to position yourself where your worst outcome on a given trade is a net zero pips. Thus a "Free Trade". Moving to break even quickly after Price moves a certain amount of pips in your favor is considered a free trade. Worst outcome: Zero pips.
Another example; splitting the postion:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
That 145.00 I saw as a potential problem, you never know with this chick.
So I played "free trade" style, half at 83 pip other half -83. I thought I was going to get stopped out but I didn't, so I like your 140.00.
This Double Inside Bar setup (Dale's Double) on the Weekly Gbp/Jpy.
I try not to use a fix amount like 30 pips or 50 pips but let the chart tell me by the 1st trouble area, be it major or minor.
My entry short was at 146.55 it hit the 1st minor area of trouble and I closed the 1st half for +83 pips then immediately set stop loss above the entry -83 pip away. And Yes, I'm still in this trade and it was close.lol
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It could be both. Meaning some people move stops to entry price, some who bank pips from half position move it to the avg price that would put them at net 0$ breakeven, others to entry price b/e insuring some profit.
Best
Mike
Thanks Mike I should have been more clearer. Some free trades can have money is the bank. Meaning 1st half in the bank, 2nd half at break even.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Brilliant - this has really helped to clarify this point, and have filed the post. Final question (promise!)- when considering 'traffic' (and I guess ppzs) effect do you relate this to the same time frame? - or do you say take a trade based on PA in the Daily but may look to 4 hour for traffic/ppz trouble spots?
Thanks
Jeremy
My 2 cents is that you manage the trade on the time frame that it was given. PA on the Daily . . . . PPZ levels, High/Lows, traffic used just on the Daily.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks - have been puzzling over this one - very helpful
Jeremy
It can get confusing if you jump down time frames to manage or look for traffic.
Take the current Gbp/Chf Daily bearish PB. Nice solid PB with clear PPZ levels or trouble areas. The 4 hour bullish PB looked great and it worked out great. It hit its target. I would not look at this 4 hour bullish PB to get out of my Daily bearish PB.
Although it is a way to manage trades very conseratively. Meaning if you got out of your Daily bearish PB because of this bullish 4 hour PB. I would not say that it was a bad decision.
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I got many questions on how I managed the BEOB Daily Cad. I thought I would share them here.
I closed my 1st half for 27 pips and my 2nd half was closed at break even.
I do think that this is a high quality setup, is it an A+ setup? Probable not due to the traffic and I would have liked to see the swing High higher , like at the 1.1000.
I could have done the free trade approach, meaning the 2nd half stop loss placement would be -27 pips for a net zero result, but I did not. I wanted Price to prove that this setup had the momentum to get through the minor trouble areas in blue.
Those of you that have taken it with their stop loss above the BEOB, it is a valid placement. I do believe it will hit the 1.0500 before it will it the 1.0700. But then again maybe it won't.
My trading stlye is very comfortable to me. It allows me to place an order on a setup with a very good chance that my worst outcome will be a "no loss" trade. And my best outcome will be riding on a runner.
Believe me, when I turn off my computer and go about my business (or sleep) I never have to "worry" that my trade is say -148pips and growing.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I saw that trade, and skipped it. I like a little more room to get to BE than what that trade afforded, but that is me and my comfort zone. It works for me.
Everyone has to figure out what works for them individually. And when you do - watch out! You have a great shot at making it.
Thanks SP.
One really has to figure out what their style is and run with it. It's funny , one style can grow to other styles over time. But for me its managing risk to point of comfort, which is zero risk. lol
I've been enjoying your interview with Fiji. Great stuff, brother.
I'm sure your asking yourself . . . . is this how Jack Schwager got started. lol
Hope there is more in the future.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi Jim, I'd like to know why you took that setup. Did the ema's influence you in any way? MACD shows no divergence to the downside, either. Was it pure PA?
The ema didn't influence the trade because it wasn't confluenced with the setup. Divergence would have been nice but not a trade breaker for me.
Yes, pure PA, off a strong PPZ level 1.0650 and RN 1.0600 and Daily trendline. It still has a very good chance of falling further but just a bit to choppy for my likely to stay with the trade.
I like the setup and would take it again in a heart beat.
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When exactly can I combine 2 bars into a 2-day pin bar (railroad tracks)? I understand that I take the open of the first and the close of the second, and look at the higher high and lower low, and if it "merges" into a PB then I can take it. But how do I decide to do this? It seems that there are many different consecutive candle formations that I can use these "merging" rules in order to make myself a PB... or is this the point, that I can do this on any 2 consecutive candles?
I prefer just using two consecutive candles but you can use more. Remember that a Weekly PB is just a 5 day PB. So there can be many different combinations. I prefer just the two consecutive candles.
But, as you know, it is where these combinations are located and the confluences that support them that is the key to their success.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi Jarroo,
I managed that trade exactly the same way than you, too half of profit after first trouble zone (around +40-50pips) reached and remaining at BE.
It's better for my taste to take little profit most of the time and get 1-3 runners a month.
Manu
Thats how we roll Manu.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Anyone eyeing the Weekly Usd/Chf PB ?
A+? Probably not. Lets see how it breaks. (if she breaks)
Not to brag but this trade on the Weekly Usd/Chf PB has been so easy to take and manage its not even funny. Sure its not the biggest PB but the location fit the bill. After the break (10 pip buffer) it saw no drawdown and flew to the moon.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
When you consider a trade and set your trading plan for the trade (either mentally or written down - the latter is best for beginners) you need to decide what you are going to do at the first trouble area i.e.
1. Take full profit
2. Move stop to B/E
3. Nothing!
4. Take partial profit, move stop etc.
It's then a case of trading your plan.
In your case it looks like you traded your plan, so why are you cursing (presume you got out at B/E), preserving capital and a B/E trade should be considered a 'winning' trade. If you are cursing a B/E trade...
The "cursing" is the the old habit showing its voice. lol It takes awhile to shake them away. I know it was for me. I know the feeling.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If ever I could jump out of this post and pat you on the back for this very special trade Jim.
From the core of my heart...."GREAT WORK"!!!!
g.
Thanks ghous. Pretty simple trade. Although my pip value was not 150 a pip, but I'd like to think I would have manage it the same way if it was. but I doubt it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.