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  #55531  
Old Feb 20, 2010 6:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hello Aaron,

Thank you for your posting.

You are more describe it in 4hr flag pattern, but I saw it as triangle false breakout on 2day timeframe.

This will show things a bit different but both way telling the same story.

Do you think the way I draw the pattern and analysis is valid?

Thanks!

PM
Sure PM. So many ways to look at things. All can be valid. Price is just price, we impose the meaning on it with the patterns we see.

The daily triangle seems perfectly valid. They key is that you have looked back over the charts for similar setups and you are confident that over a hundred similar setups you would make money. Whether the individual setup succeeds or fails is then irrelevant. People get hung up on judging a setup by how it performs. I always think 'would a hundred of these make money in the long run?' That way I am always looking for a good edge.

Sorry, went off on a tangent. But the answer is yes. There can be many ways of looking at price that tell the same story.
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  #55544  
Old Feb 20, 2010 3:00pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I am a complete beginner so I cannot post anything helpful.

But I do wish to thank you Tia for the recent discusions and Benji for the graet charts posted recently and all the others who are successful and find the time to contribute.
Thanks Peter but don't let being a beginner put you off posting. Beginners are who this thread was designed for. Have a read of the first few hundred pages of this thread, look at every post Jim links to in post one, and have a look at mbqb11's post history. As you do this you'll start to get a feel for the basics.... (what's a pinbar, what's a PPZ) and then please post your questions and charts.

Jim designed this thread specifically to help people who are complete beginners. And we were all complete beginners once.
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  #55659  
Old Feb 22, 2010 7:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi all

As a J16 person who was derailed but now back on track, I would just like to ask if some of you guys have problems spotting the setups in real-time? I find I am seeing a lot of setups after the event(easy, I know) but am just not seeing them develop in real time - has anyone else had this problem how do you overcome this hurdle?

thanks guys

berti
You're not alone berti. It's so common. I have gone through and still go through the same stuff. You look at a chart, agonise over taking something, then four days later when it works out you think "man that was obvious how could I miss that". Mike still goes through it too.

It's partly because when we look over our historical charts we see both the before and after part of the setup. We see the pinbar at the peak of the mountain with the steep slope on either side. Looks perfect. Then we see a setup forming and there is only one side of the mountain. And to our brains, even subconsciously, the doubts form because it doesn't look the same.

It's perfectly normal and great that you recognise it. Many people in an early stage just open the chart and see a pinbar at the top of the trend and think "wow if i'd held that all the way down I would have made 20 times my risk!" ignoring all the heavy retracements on the way that would have had them sweating bullets. Accepting that the feelings after the fact are different to the feelings before is an important stage of the curve, in my opinion.

Solutions? Well I have some suggestions that help me. You need to train you eyes to see good setups before they play out, seeing the pinbar with only "one side of the mountain", if you see what I mean. Backtesting is a great great way to do this because we are evaluating tons of setups without seeing the full chart. In my opinion the single biggest advantage of backtesting as opposed to just looking over the charts for the last year, is that we get to identify these setups without seeing what happens after the bar.

You can backtest using a program like forextester that allows you to replay market data as live, or you can use the F12 key in MT4 to just scroll forward one bar at a time.

Another thing I use is before and after snapshots in my journal. I take a screenshot of the setup as I take it, then I take another one several bars later (often long after I got out) to see how it panned out. The two screenshots get entered into my journal. These 'before' pictures have become very important to me in monitoring my progress.

And while I am on the subject, a final word about record keeping. It's been the single biggest factor in improving my trading. I believe that at the very least everyone should keep a spreadsheet. The historical record thing in MT4 simply isn't enough IMO. I keep a spreadsheet and a journal over on PF and without it I would have missed glaring things that I was doing wrong. Keeping records, tracking alternative exit strategies, having screenshots of your trades..... this all helps keep you disciplined and avoids the "heck I'll just slam on a position and see where it goes" mentality. It becomes so easy to look back and ask, for example, "how many trend trades am I winning compared to counter trend trades". It really was one of the biggest keys to improving my trading. There was one month where I decided that records were hampering me and that I needed to "cut loose". It was my worst trading month ever.

I hope those suggestions help. It's a natural stage of the learning curve and I think a bit of backtesting, coupled with taking some before and after screenshots, will really help you get over it.

But if my observations of the seniors, and my experiences are anything to go by, you'll still sometimes find yourself scratching your head and going "how did I talk myself out of that one?" (just ask Mike about the peso..). It's much better, in my opinion, than scratching your head and saying "why did I take that one?"
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"The ultimate edge in trading is when a traders "use" of breakeven overpowers and conquers the "use" of hope." James16

Last edited by TiaForex, Feb 22, 2010 7:57am
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  #55661  
Old Feb 22, 2010 7:54am
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James doesn't go beyond this thread much, but he did recently for a lone post and I thought it was so good that I wanted to see it posted here. I am sure he won't mind (and if you do Jim, I'll delete it). It's just too too god to waste.

From James16:

my experience over the last 30 years is that all this "stuff" spoken about by so many well meaning smart people is just mental masturbation.

People think that the real keys to succes in this business are somehow shrouded behind a mystical curtain only obtainable by those with 140 iq's and an understanding of ultra complicated subjects.

Its the exact opposite.

The real keys behind success in this business are found by leaving all that mental crap behind you and understanding some very simple basic truths.

(all the "you's" used below are not directed at you personally mind but meant as general)

1. if you dont treat this as a business anything and everything you attempt will fail.

2. if you cant trade a daily chart with success you cant trade any time frame lower with success. so why try?

3. if you think 3 months of practice is suffecient to start a business and expect positive results then your either naive or brain dead.

4. virtually no one ( even those that treat it as a business) that start with a small account ever see it become a large account. Overtrading kills them all. Give the same trader one account with 250,000 and give him another with 2500 and you will see two different traders.

when 50 pips are worth 5 bucks they will watch it turn into a loss and trade everything they see. when those 50 pips are worth 10, 25, 50,000 they will smile all the way to the bank and FOCUS IN ON 1 OR 2 GREAT SET UPS A MONTH OUT OF ALL THE INSTRUMERNTS THEY TRADE.

5. BREAKEVENS ARE WINS. they should always be counted as wins. a small account holder that learns and implements the value of breakeven over hope is very very rare and should be commended. i tried 8 years with no success and it cost me more than i care to think about.

6. the less on your chart the better. indicators were invented to impress wives and girlfriends. they are good for one thing. conflunce and/or divergence.

i could go on forever and since i type with one finger im getting tired.

i dont get involved on this side of the forum often because I NEVER want to come accross as preachy or as hawking something.

im always available via email to anyone but just remember my one finger.

if any new trader would just refuse to trade with real money until what they are attempting is first proven on demo or a tiny micro account for a half a year or so they would discover several things.

1. there is no such thing as any system or method "THAT WORKS".
they must be combined with some of the points above before that can happen.
MM and RR techniques are a waste of mental energy until a certain "level" of experience and hard knocks have been achieved. that comes with time and practice. if the time and practice is spent the wrong way it will be a never ending nightmare.

2. simple is better.

as i always say all of this is just my opinion. nothing less/nothing more.

its simply comes from my personal experience.

Jim
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"The ultimate edge in trading is when a traders "use" of breakeven overpowers and conquers the "use" of hope." James16
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  #55669  
Old Feb 22, 2010 9:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chatzi View Post
That was excellent thanks Tia....
It's James16's statement and I'll leave him to answer it. He'll do a better job than me.

All I'll say is that I think the general meaning is that people get things ass backwards. they focus on making money rather than learning to trade. Believe me, if you spent a couple of years getting so good at this that you could return a good percentage rate consistently a month, then there literally is no upside to the amount of money you could make. Even if those two years were spent entirely on demo. People don't tend to focus on the big picture because often they feel like they need money now.

There are so many more options available when consistent success is reached, not least because you will have a proven documented track record.

And to answer your question, I have seen people go from small accounts to life changing sums. But they didn't do it by trying to double every month.

The focus should always be on improving your trading. Good bars, good locations, make the next trade a good one, and above all, not losing money. I really believe that everything else should just be put to one side at the start of the learning curve. It somehow ends up falling into place later anyway.
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  #55686  
Old Feb 22, 2010 12:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Learn to trade and the money will come, when I started out I lost about 40-50k because all I wanted was more money. Now I just want what the market wants and take the trades as I see them. The few ppl I showed the market and how I traded all said "I cant wait to get a Ferrari, new house, etc" or something of great value, all they wanted was the money. Even with me sitting with them on messanger telling them when to get in and out they still screwed up, it was always the it's coming back, or I thought I could get more out of it that screwed them....
Ryan! Dude, always good to see you. Hope you're doing well.

And Ryan's right. Never underestimate the capacity of the human brain to mess up a sure thing. Ryan sits there telling em when to get in and when to get out, having made a lot of money himself and doing it for a living.....and they still manage to mess it up.

The big enemy is always between our ears.
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  #55781  
Old Feb 23, 2010 6:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
I spiked as well Nasir. Not to my liking.
But even B trades...managed with the James16's principals would avoid you from losing money almost every time.

You should be safe by now trig. If that bars closes below support, it's likely to act as resistance and you would be rewarded.

Anyway, also a full take profit on that level would worth a good bunch of money on a big enough account
Benji is right, as always.

For added confluence with that pin there is a descending trendline on that TF, and also...

...put a line at 3675 which is virtually the top of the pin, flip over to the monthly, zoom out, and see what level we're retesting....

I didn't take it because I preferred the GU BEOB and didn't want to get overexposed. I'll be out a lot today and two correlated trades with me away from my computer is too much like skydiving without a parachute for my conservative taste.
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  #56128  
Old Feb 24, 2010 10:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I might be there end of year for a bachelor party so an extended stay wouldn't be bad :P
I'm visiting the states around then too. But I want a room with a tiger in it. Like 'The Hangover'. And you have to go to Mike Tyson's house.
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  #56134  
Old Feb 24, 2010 10:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
hilarious movie
I love that movie so much. I need to be able to quote from it more.
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  #56138  
Old Feb 24, 2010 10:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
You know how it works, with enough money I bet I can get those damn S&R white tigers and hookers from the bunny ranch to ride'em around. Hmm, now you got me thinking again lol!
Lol. We'll put Mike to work on the poker tables, and what he makes during the day gets spent in the evening.

From what I hear (only been once and I was married then, very different experience), everything is for sale in Vegas. Just no Cirque Du *$!@ing Soleil please.
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"The ultimate edge in trading is when a traders "use" of breakeven overpowers and conquers the "use" of hope." James16
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  #56241  
Old Feb 25, 2010 3:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey sir6,

My stop was below the low of the pin bar, according to James16's principals.
My risk on this trade was 3%. So I got out a bit before I reached 1R.

I risk 3% because I am extremely conservative with the way I manage my trades, and still working on being more picky, therefore I get a high win rate including BEs. I am using a money management method which fits to my trading style, entry and management. This is only the technical part though.
I can risk 3% because it fits my risk tolerance. I have a small account, and I found that...
Ben uses this level of risk because he has developed a system that has extremely picky bar selection, then going to break even super quick even if it's only 11 pips away. Extremely high win rate, quick targets, and crucially a long research period. Very very similar to how J16 trades

Of course most new folk use high risk for entirely different reasons, then end up with a blown account.

I can guarantee that anyone who is new to this will blow up using that level of risk. Period paragraph (as Jim would say).

Risk modelling is a complex subject but I think even 1% is too high until you've been doing this a while. Start with 0.5%, get good, post profit after profit. Build your confidence. Never take full bar losses. Give yourself a chance to stay in this game for the long haul.

Because if you look at Benji's post and think "wow I'm gonna risk 3% too" then that's a dangerous road that ends in heartache.
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  #56286  
Old Feb 25, 2010 6:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Thanks Tia.

I should be much more careful with what I post I guess.
I am doing James pure stuff for a while, and this is one of the things I feel are important for his style to be successful. Not because of the fact of higher profits, but because HE KNOWS THAT IF HE WILL BE A GOOD BOY, STANDING ON HIS HANDS LONG ENOUGH, BEING PICKY, PATIENT, DISCIPLINE, AND FOLLOWING HIS OWN RULES, HE WOULD GET REWARDED. I feel like this is like a prize your parents give you if you are a good student at school. If you work hard enough, you'll get X3, but if...
You keep posting what you post. You're one of the most valuable contributors to this thread and your post history should be required reading for everyone. You've gone farther faster than anyone I've seen on here.

I didn't mean to suggest you shouldn't bring it up. Heck we all know that James16 risks a similar amount. I just wanted to add to the conversation. It's good to have discussions about all aspects of trading and risk profiling is one of them. We could talk about Monte Carlo simulations, risk of ruin, expectancy/Van Tharp stuff.... it'd all be valuable here.

And in terms of 'protecting newcomers'... in truth when I was new I didn't want to listen to anyone at all and kept finding new and creative ways to flush my money down the toilet, or worse give my money to other people to trade who happily flushed it down the toilet for me. People will do what they're going to do. Any informed discussion by a serious minded member like yourself is not going to affect that one way or another.

All of which is a long winded way of saying, if someone is going to risk 5% a trade, well they are going to do that whether you talk about it or not. And someone who has sensible ideas about risk management, well they're not going to be swayed by someone else no matter what they say.

We learn this path by walking it. No matter how much we may want to, we never learn by watching someone else walk it.

Go Ben Go...
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"The ultimate edge in trading is when a traders "use" of breakeven overpowers and conquers the "use" of hope." James16

Last edited by TiaForex, Feb 25, 2010 6:49pm
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  #56348  
Old Feb 26, 2010 12:14am
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Good to see you here DS. What's been on your mind these days?
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  #56562  
Old Feb 28, 2010 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey guys,

If anyone has any kind of book or movie regarding trading psychology which was helpful, please PM me and let me know. Any good stuff would be appreciated except of "trading in the zone" and "the secrets of emotion free trading".

Thanks,

Ben
It's such a tough question to answer Ben because these things are so individual. I have over 200 books on my shelf to do with personal development and 'psychology' and all were valuable at different stages in life for different goals. There isn't really a "try this" book. What I will say is that whenever you get a recommendation from someone, bear in mind that they are telling you what worked for them, when they were at a particular stage of their life. It may be meaningless to you. I would always try and read the first few pages of the book (if possible) and see if the style grabs you. If it doesn't then move on. Finding what's right for you, right now, is more important than finding some authoritative text.

I also believe that what is right for you somehow finds its way to you, without you looking. You found the James16 chart thread within a week of starting forex. Others took years to find their way here. Maybe you were lucky, or maybe something found its way to you. The same applies with these books and methods. It's also worth remembering that a book/method that could change your life in two years time, may be meaningless to you now.

I would suggest though that you look beyond the field of 'trading psychology'. In my experience the written material in this field is pretty thin and is a diluted version of the general personal development world. DOn't just look for trading psychology books, look for stuff that may help you in the wider field of improving yourself. I should add, fijitrader is a big exception to the usual stuff written by 'trading psychologists' as he has so much experience of many different methods to draw on. His work is much deeper that Van Tharp (in my opnion) because of his background.

There are also things like meditation (Ryan started to meditate to improve his trading), yoga and other practices that increase your focus and help you be more productive in life.

If you want to talk about specific things you are drawn to then maybe I can recommend a book that will help. I don't particularly want to do that in the thread, because it would be specific to where you are rather than being a general thing that everyone should read. You know how to get hold of me if you want to chat about stuff.

It's a lifelong journey, this business of looking within. But in my experience it has very rewarding, deeply fulfilling, and life changing.
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"The ultimate edge in trading is when a traders "use" of breakeven overpowers and conquers the "use" of hope." James16
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  #56873  
Old Mar 2, 2010 4:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Profit View Post
It isn't that easy, I have a roof with the amount of money I hold in a trading account, all that compounding is ok up to a certain amount, if traders think they can trade the same with a 5k account and a 100k account is miffed, you don't. Switch off the account profit and loss does nothing, you can't fool yourself that easy. Also there's the risk of the trading account holders going bust, who would leave more than 100k in a trading account? You crazy? All this 'you can compound up to a mill is a year' is correct on paper, but in the real world it...
Bob, is that you????
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  #56875  
Old Mar 2, 2010 5:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability View Post
Regarding becoming mega rich after a million, in theory yes, but in reality you come across all sorts of problems with fills as you trade huge sums, so we tend to stick with a million or so in the trading account, you have leverage remember and our risk is totally controlled.

Hey if you guys want to trade the dailies be my guest, but AFTER you have made your million like Ryan, (mind you he soon got bored of the poor returns and returned to the lower time frames) not before, what's the point? All the dailies are is a slowed down version of the...

Welcome back Bob. When Ryan returns you're never far behind.
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  #56889  
Old Mar 2, 2010 5:26pm
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Originally Posted by Dhb View Post
This thread moves at a relentless pace, so I'm not surprised things go by unnoticed....
Tons of stuff. And unfortunately the nature of it doesn't lend itself to the guest section very well. It's being bumped up recently with some audio interviews with Fijitrader. Personally I think he knocks van tharp into a cocked hat.

I have certainly benefitted from that section and I think a lot of people say it's the best part of the site.
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  #56968  
Old Mar 3, 2010 6:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i see our resident movie star IS IN THE HOUSE.

Is he talking about me? That quote links directly to a james16 post. James is there something you're not telling us? Is it true that after all this time you are in fact....Chuck Norris?

Actually in a smack down between Jim and Chuck I'd fear for Chuck. He'd be left bleeding in an alley with a pinbar sticking out of his eye and an outside bar rammed up his..... never mind.

(Btw, it's always a good day when I wake up to charts from James)
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  #56989  
Old Mar 3, 2010 6:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
3800
Round number. Good place to look for a pinbar....
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  #56999  
Old Mar 3, 2010 7:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...Just realised it was page number! ...I was talking about E/U...



Top trend line is whack. Ignore it. Must have slipped. lol
Well it doubles up. Hence my joke. Currency trader humour is impenetrable...
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