Sheebus, I try and stay up to date with the thread, have like 3-5 days since I last checked, and whenever I click next page, a NEW next page pops up.
And I have 40 posts per page set!

There must be around 2-300+ new posts, almost 100 daily...how do you expect anyone to keep up :P

Anyhow, I just wanted to say welcome "Boy", give my best to wizard/Tom, to the TheFutureAce I can only say I try and make a point lately of making my charts before / as the trade happens, but posting them only after the trade is already out a bit or after it's done, since I know for a fact that just scouring the forum, looking for bits and morsels everywhere only does one thing: slow you down and keep your learning progress at a minimum.

The only way ahead is alone when it comes to practice and development.

Way too many people, be it on FF or the J16 site, probably don't realize the impact / significance of this until they're "over it", if/when they get there.

But imho getting a "heads up" from someone else is just a demotivator for yourself, your own research, charting, trade practice...

I probably sound like the grinch again, but I really don't mind..the way I feel about this stuff is that when you really think about it, it's a kind of "I hold these truths to be self-evident" deal..and I am fairly certain most if not all folks who are "over the hump" will agree.

You can watch someone else show you the guitar grips, picks and chords in order to then practice them yourself, but you're never going to be able to play a solo if you need the other guy to show you every finger move first.

--

But back to the "real" post..most joyrides are already posted, but I think EURAUD didn't get that much attention, so I'll just post some stuff there.

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__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

And since stocks aren't posted that frequently, here's a bit of the DJI.

(For those in the know, this is an updated version of the infamous "7500 is a must reach level" chart :P Edit: Actually the first one still has that marked in, ooops..duh. Makes it a bit more obvious)

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__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Fortunately, I can with good conscience tell you that even if you only make it to 2009, you will likely already have most material necessary to make it on your own, if you can filter out the nuggest and put in the time.
Dante/Tom has basically made a "gist of it" thread or two about s/r and pins as well which is essentially the same story, best I know, on T2W.

Yepp, Patrick like the irish :P
Sorry bout the quotes, the only Boy-Name with Boy I knew before today was Boyd

I'm skimming through it now.
He advises gaps / states gaps are super-profitable.
I know for a fact more than one or two people have blown out LARGE, if not HUGE chunks of their accounts with gap trades, simply because the lure of the "can't fail" trade was too big.

If you ask me, ignore them UNTIL PA SHOWS UP POINTING TOWARDS THEM.
Then, and only then trade towards them.
Anything else can work, but it can also blow up in your face big time.
That's my personal experience with this gap phenomenon and I've quit bothering with them except for noticing them once PA lines up towards them and I'm much better for it.

Mileage may vary, but don't say you haven't been warned.
Anyone prone to shelling out > 2% on anything at all is engaging in risky behavior to begin with either way.. (only folks like Mark I would be willing leave exempt from this statement )


The remaining bits seem to be mapping out trades and the retesting logic of the market - both bread and butter skills and knowledge and stuff I hope we've presented here and at J16 in detail, too
(I.e. looks good)

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

I am getting more and more depressed at barely being included in recent "counts and mentions".

3000+ posts (even with a year of almost no posting, still 2.49 posts a day average) and all I got was this lousy 1kT badge..that then got taken away again!

-------


On a more serious note, an old thought popped in my head again while cooking and I thought I might just share / post it again.
I've elaborated on this before, but as I can see both poster AND posts are soon forgotten, so any redundancy probably won't hurt :P


Fitting in with the recent posts about "I basically live on FF" and overall enthusiasm to share and discuss publicly:
What I have found, for me, personally, is that one big revelation of getting good at trading relates to isolation strongly.

I've said this before: disconnecting, isolating yourself from the "noise" that is forums, tv, press, anything outside of the chart and you, is a crucial stage in developing your skillset.
You are free to do how and whatever once you have everything, the skill, knowledge and confidence, but in order to get there, the process of disillusion has to occur.

What I mean is:
Most of us got here on the promise of easy money, fast progress, instant gratification.
The most sobering experience is not just the realization that it's not that easy. It's also not the hardest part.

The hardest part is allowing that realization to crystallize into a conclusion.
The conclusion in this case, that if you really want to get somewhere with things, you need to do everything you can to ensure your chances of making progress are maximized.

This includes actually knuckling down and doing the work, putting in the time(parakeets and buffalo herds spring to mind).
I can tell you with a straight face that my screen- and charttime is in the thousands of hours.
It also, to me, includes reducing indulgence in distractions as much as possible, if not completely eliminating them.
I can tell you that for me that whenever I exposed myself too much to public discourse or generally engaged too much in distractions such as arguments about pointless stuff, posting for the sake of posting or just generally anything outside of study&research, things did not progress.

I HAD TO get away, focus, focus and focus to get things sorted.
I don't know whether this makes me slow, stupid or retarded, or whether I am just plain stating something normal, but for me, doing an essentially simple thing involved straining myself to focus all my mind and energy on just this one thing, to see even small things through from beginning to the end.

In my opinion, it's a very, VERY unforgiving business, where if you slip up, you slip up. You miss a trade, then it's gone; you mismanage something and it's gone; heck, you mis-click and it may just be gone.
I don't think the seriousness or gravity of all of this can be overstated.

-
Even when you get so good at things that you could theoretically do it in your sleep: there is always that window/moment of "I can't be disturbed now, the X-Moment is here" where everybody who knows what I am talking about will understand why and how someone can go from being a cheerfully talking and joking state into a full-on "not in this world anymore" trance-state of focus and purpose.
It might not be social, it might even be rude in it's manner towards the "outside world", but I feel that anyone who realizes the challenge and stakes involved is able to relate without a single word necessary.
-

Coming back:
When you are faced with something that takes all of your devotion, attention, focus and energy to execute perfectly, just how healthy would you say a distraction or general potential element of noise and confusion is?

So in other words, you eventually are confronted with the realization(which should have been a clear, simple fact from the get-go, but is obscured by the whole behavior, culture and community that surrounds trading) that this is not about fun and games, but serious.
And hard work.
And a matter of practice.
And time investment.
Discipline.
Patience.
Endless patience.
One of the biggest tests of your self-control you will face.

How insane. I thought this was just clicky-click and money!
Good times and giggles. Easy cash. Something anyone can easily do on the side.

Disillusion.

That really is the key element.
Detachment and disengaging(these two I have definitely posted about before) are just consequent reactions to this core realization.
But unless you ALLOW yourself to accept the disillusion and instead re-frame the challenge that sits in front of you, treat it with the necessary amount of respect - in my opinion, you are (possibly/most likely/definitely - take your pick) not over the last hump yet.

-

In that vein - at the same time as you realize this is going to require more energy, time and investment that you would ever have thought, also keep in mind that you need an equal amount of releasing tension, balancing out your social and other positive benefits having needs, relieving stress and so forth, to not go completely insane and keep things in perspective.

It will do you little good to be a master of markets and being super rich when you can't relate to another "normal" human being anymore.
Yes, it is a very special and "own" thing, even YOUR special, own thing, but it is also something that you should be aware of nobody else feels they HAVE to be nuts about as well.

Realize that what you are about does not have to be what others are about and that this is fine; that there is a near infinity of precious things in this world and that you can find engaging, fun and interesting elements in many, many things, activities and people, if you just keep yourself open to it.

----

I am not sure whether I elaborated well enough and enough-enough on the importance of the disillusion / disconnect phenomenon and whether the transitionary nature of things is clear enough(i.e. nothing ever remains in absolutes, but will eventually shape itself out, change, adapt to new knowledge and circumstances etc), but I am equally unsure I could phrase more and better at this point in time, so I am just going to put this out there.

Things are always so much more stringent WHILE you are thinking them, aren't they

Enjoy the weekend everyone.

- Seeking / Patrick

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

..then..



The exception I would make to this is: if your wealth affords you to become a lifetime member without really having much of an impact, then check the material here out briefly, survey the J16 site, and, after serious weighing and consideration, if you feel this is actually how and where you want to go, commit.
You can always cancel out without a hassle if you don't like it, but you should be aware that whichever month you want to start on, be prepared to bring a LOT of time just to orient yourself.
By now the site is just exploding with stuff to read and explore


Otherwise you cannot go wrong with just trying yourself out on demo with what is shown here first and then if you feel you have the basics understood, move on over to the J16 site.

You most likely won't need all 50k++++ posts of this thread read to understand "what we are getting at", but the really core important ones will easily go into the hundreds..

The advantage here obviously is that you can get to grasp with all the basics on your own time "out here" and just see how everything feels. Then when you "step in" you already know what most of the folks are on about.

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Yes, me please.

How is it I only see entries, but no stops and
how is it I only see entries, but no setups?

Basically I think part of the question is a) what is your risk and / or b) how could you know your risk this way?
Another way to put it would be to say "What ARE you doing?".

Also, it is possible that the intention why I'm asking isn't purely in getting an answer.


---


@Mark: TL or MA for the DJI and JPY effect? Just guessing

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Great, now I feel like supergeek for knowing most price levels by heart.



(Shhh Patrick, don't tell 'em about the s/r as well, just quietly sidle out of the room and nobody will notice..)

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

I'm not sure this is a good thing, no matter how you turn it.

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Sure Cory.

Keeping in mind this is just me and my opinion:

I personally find it problematic if the "speed" at which a trade "fails or succeeds" plays a role.

But since I've just used the terms fail and succeed:
Actually, if you've done everything that you can to ensure that the reason you entered a trade was a good one, i.e. one that fit your rules and criteria, then there no longer is a possibility for a failed trade.

There just is a possible win or loss. And neither of those, ideally, lead to disappointment or satisfaction(an emotion of any kind), but simply to the next trade(processing instead of reacting).

How soon this happens shouldn't matter, nor should it matter that you go into drawdown in between, or for how long.

If a drawdown makes you queasy, then it is possible that for example you are not used to the sums you are using and shouldn't be using them to begin with. Or that there are other insecurities or issues at work that should be worked out first. Changing oneself is more often THE thing and factor, rather than changing "the system" over and over again.

This is a logic that I feel comfortable in putting out there, because I know that for many this applies 100%.


I know that the idea that there are "zero drawdown trades" out there is being put forth a lot, but, quite frankly, I feel that it is rarely predictable 100% which trade will or won't break without a retracement or "pause / hesitation" first(I can tell you which ones will be very likely to, but I would never expect anything "fully and always" in the market).
I mean it's already well enough to be able to predict where reactions might happen, but if we also ask to know when and how fast, then we are getting into more advanced voodoo than at least I would know how to conjure up..


I know that Jim(J16 in this case, not Jarroo) has something against trades coming back too much as well, but I feel things might be a bit different there in terms of pre-existing conditions (and reasons why one is doing what) vs someone still learning the ropes and being more mainly emotionally driven still.

--

Basically I am/was just saying it sounded like an emotional feedback("quick satisfaction") was possibly dictating the way/how you are trading and as long as that's the case, you're bound to be at risk from it in turn.


Again: Ideally you could care less how fast or slow something moves to where you planned it to, as long as your setup, idea and plan was sound and followed as well as you could.
There is so little relevance in any single trade that having any kind of emotional factor in it is just so....pointless I guess. That's perhaps what I mean in the end.

Yet it seems to be THE thing people focus on..a lot at least.
Whether or not things work out on a per-trade basis isn't the yardstick I think.
It's whether overall you know what you are doing, and know that what you are doing works.

Disinvolvement, disengaging..etc..you know the story by now I guess.

And now I am going to disengage from posting and go into mattress hugging mode.

Best,

Patrick

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Sure.
Well, I don't know.
I guess I think more binary with these things. I am aware of all that order flow existing "behind the scenes" etc, but since I can't see any of it in terms of size and strength, I won't try and guess about it.
And who is to say that there's less "power" behind something, just because it takes a while?
It might just have to overcome a lot of opposite force, first.
Or why would speed indicate a lot of orders; it could just be a near-empty market on the other side. So I think that's just a lot wild guessing unless you somehow got info and are "in the know" and even then..I'm back to the binary thing.

Which is:
Either my setup holds, or it gets stopped out(i.e. before it moves out so far that it makes sense to move to the next step in terms of adjusting stops, taking profit or whatever).
Most of the time I am trying to catch at least a minor swingpoint, so I am expecting a sensible move from A to B as a minimum target. This tends to not be 20 pips, but preferably as close to 1:1 as I can get(I will consider half of that, too, but I have to be able to really SEE it).


That 4h GBPCHF BEOB from 1.7 was a good example. It was mirrored on EURGBP and I looked at both. Unfortunately, I (like it appears everyone else, too) chose GBPCHF over EURGBP, since it had such a nice round number. Turns out thanks to USDCHF that EURGBP was the better behaved one.

Nonetheless, back to the speed thing. There was a) a setup b) a target and it took 1. forever to get there and 2. we retraced the BUOB as is customary right to the highs of the prior bar before it, too.

So not only did the setup retrace, but it also took forever.
And yet it went around 1:2 (1:1 if you left at one of the 4h bearish PBs along the way).
So, was this a good or a bad trade?
Why would(or should) speed or initial bar retracement have mattered in this case?
I was actually in GBPCHF (around 125 hours) for almost the same amount of time as EURGBP took to get to that target, yet due to that last minute CHF spike I got taken out barely 24 hours before those targets were met.


Also - here we are, telling people to start on daily and weekly, that patience is paramount and that it takes time, yet at the same time there's this "oooh, it's gotta go immediately" vibe still..which feels a bit counter to that.
Not that I mind a setup breaking and running shmazillions of pips instantly, heck no. Like you said, nice if it's there, etc.

I just think the time factor doesn't make as much of a difference for the initial binary idea of "stops out / doesn't" and "gets there or doesn't" as one would think.

I can relate to Mike's "untriggered setups are icky" logic(I tend to pull orders as well if there isn't at least SOME mini-momentum change indication), and I do watch overall momentum(everyone knows I love them MAs), but I'm just not that into you, err, into an overall speeeeeeedspeedspeedspeeeeeed thing.
If it takes 5 days instead of one, so be it, just as long as it hits that take profit order.

But like we always say, it's all a very individual thing.
I just wouldn't completely hang myself up on it or let it cause me headaches when a setup isn't doing superspeed right off the bat.
Some of the biggest and most surprising "plopps" came/can come after working off a lot of initial resistance, first(especially on big turnarounds).

Again, that's just me, but you know I do love to raise an eyebrow to many a thing

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__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Sorry for interrupting with this by now "old" debate, but I'll probably not sleep if I don't work this off for myself :P
Just carry on afterwards =)

--


I wanted to add my opinion on this as well, since I'm right there with James.

Leading in with some random quotes:
Etc.

And now to the core issue at hand:
The fuss is that it isn't what the thread is about.
Accordingly, it isn't addressed in depth or actively supported.
If it were, we'd suddenly have 100% more bloat just by parallel-teaching and explaining everything hewn in as well.

That's what the private site is for: there are dedicated sections for those who prefer advanced stuff, there is a beginner section, etc.
(Those also have great examples of what was mentioned a bit later on, combining PA with various other things. Gold nuggets, actually. And doing that is fine, ultra-interesting and great, but it's not something you throw at people starting out.)

Here it is ONE thread, trying to help people starting out and trying to orient themselves.

We've constantly had this phenomenon happen.
People come in, trying to(unintentionally I'd assume) turn this into "Yet another cable thread"(replace cable with any other pair - It's my worst nightmare).

I do not want this to happen. (Do you know what every xth post in those threads is? "I really tried and keep up with all the good spirits here, but I just can't take it anymore..after x months/years I've only been losing money and busted my 1st/2nd/3rd account and I just can't do this.." etc)
Because the one thing that makes this thread different and special is that here we don't encourage random shouts of "short?", "looking good?" and "I just bought xxxxxx. Good idea?", but smack people on their fingers and open their eyes as to what the difference between guessing and hoping and actual reason based trading is.

If you do not realize the dilemma around this yet, then you possible just aren't "there" yet and either need more time or more pain / key events to find out. This isn't meant in a malevolent way, but just what I have found.
People seeing they are not getting anywhere is the very reason they realize they need to make a change.

Trying to do everything at once and trading 50 things mixed and mashed is one of the first things I tell people to stop if they really want to get good at something(one thing).


--

My personal opinion: I also think this type of "Hey it's cool what YOU guys have been doing for 50.000 posts, but here is how _I_ would totally trade" is a bit disrespectful to everyone who is trying to learn and focus on the core "program" of the thread.
If you have something you have rules for, tested, and done for a long period of time and KNOW IT WORKS, then what is stopping you from opening a dedicated thread where you detail these very things?
You would be able to structure it, actually focus on helping those interested and not run into the issue of constantly getting mixed up or posted-past by 6 pages until "your" topic/approach comes up again.


Imagine every forum thread were merged into one - how terrifying would it be to find what you initially wanted to learn?
There is a reason that a thread has a (as in one) topic. It's not to cramp egos or hold back people because one can't offer one's own ideas, but because there is a problem-solution structure that is trying to be applied to a given situation.


Just my view on it.

Be safe,

Patrick

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Word up my man, I thought I was the only one reading some of those pages in-depth.

Some very interesting things on that site, and there is even a free online supermemo based language learning course I think.

Really just wanted to say "hey" to my favorite polar bear
(Been snowing, cold and slippery all year so far, so how could I not think of you! Teehee)

__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.