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james16 Chart Thread
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Feb 25, 2009 1:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Posting on the round number page of 1500 !

EDIT : If Mike does not get in on the round number page there is no justice in the world
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LOL ok i will post and say I love this dancing chick I actually watched it for a good minute
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Feb 25, 2009 1:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Posting on the round number page of 1500 !

EDIT : If Mike does not get in on the round number page there is no justice in the world
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LOL ok i will post and say I love this dancing chick I actually watched it for a good minute
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Feb 25, 2009 5:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ady27
conservative is my middle name... lol 
didn't trigger in... although touched 1.6550 and jumped 100 pips as expected. didn't get that either . no PA.
ej...
Can any of the vets explain 2 PB setup, what does it mean???? 
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at a swing low that might catch my attention. But these are pinbars with not great closes as swing highs.
Remember we want to take bullish pinbars at swing lows and bearish pins at swing highs. Yes pins can be played as continuation but until you can play them the way James16 teaches in the beginning I would stick to the former. After you understand the orginal and simple way they are taught you will become more knowledgable to understand when you might be able to get away with different positioning of these bars because of the deeper understanding of price action.
Take care
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakko85
How would you qualify this possible trade?
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Hey Bakko,
That bar is nothing to get excited about. Sure it might give some pips. But it is so small I would classify it a neutral just another bar. You need to be able to avoid these bars and not get excited to hop into a trade. The good ones will stick out. A good looking bar that jumps out + a good area. Now that is where we want to be at. Price is constantly moving, pausing, moving etc. A lot of times you meet an area that might be potentially strong like you have noted on your chart(remember these are zones), But a pause is often mistaken for a pin to trade(ie neutral bar, or small pin bar). This is not really giving us a "tip off" that our area is validated. Instead when you have an important area and clear PA like a big pinbar, then your confidence to trade it can increase greatly.
Just some thoughts
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G550
Mike, would you consider the weekly pin for the Euro (last weeks that is) to be one that "stands out" or was that more of a neutral bar? Seems like the location was pretty good.
Thanks!
-G550
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Hey G5
THe bar itself was good, location was decent. Was it a trade one could take absolutly. What I told members in my webinar was I stayed out b/c of the 1.3 large rd number an major area directly above it. Since it didn't create all that much space(marked by the magenta lines). That one would have to be concerned with the 1.3 area. For me generally the more space the easier it is to hold through what seem like smaller areas. When that space shrinks like on the euro, that area above of 1.3 has to be an area of concern. So one might decide to move stop to b/e, take profit there or whatever. I choose to stay out since it was so closely above. This pin was just not strong enough(after such strong moves down) for the way I trade to buy and hold and "hope" for it to break 1.3. If the pin had more space and was much larger in size I would be willing to hold and try to get above 1.3. Overall price did what you would have expected. 1.3 is still a very key area.
That is just my view and how I trade.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron
I have posted on Forex Factory several times in the past year under the name PipsterDufus. But I was a James16 PF member under the name catiron, so I have changed to that name here.
I was a PF member for four months and it totally changed my trading results for the better. I have had double digit (%) gains every month since I first joined in September. Unfortunately, February has been a tough month -- tight ranges, low volatility. I am working hard to stay even for the month.
Since August, the market has had tremendous volatility and large...
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Hey Catiron
Glad to hear about your success way to go
Yes some months things just don't go our way with how we trade. It is just part of the business IMO. That is why I never view my trading in terms of monthly results. I view my trading in quarters. That is how I get the best view of how my trading is doing. You don't want to get scared out of what works, by one so-so month or losing month. I watch trades take off all the time that I am not in. There will be thousands and thousands of those in the future and it is just not something you can let effect your reasoning. Actually most people attempt to get into any old trade that has reasonable PA b/c of the fear of missing a move. Then if they stay out and the move goes where they thought it gives them reason to jump on in next time. Then they take a loss, and the psychological beating starts and bad behaviors follow.
You executed your plan for 4 months with great results. If you get off that game plan and let one month or two months destroy everything you built up you can find yourself back at square one. Just execute your trade plan. You have to literally brush the rest of your shoulders. Then that becomes routine also.
Take care
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 5:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ady27
conservative is my middle name... lol 
didn't trigger in... although touched 1.6550 and jumped 100 pips as expected. didn't get that either . no PA.
ej...
Can any of the vets explain 2 PB setup, what does it mean???? 
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at a swing low that might catch my attention. But these are pinbars with not great closes as swing highs.
Remember we want to take bullish pinbars at swing lows and bearish pins at swing highs. Yes pins can be played as continuation but until you can play them the way James16 teaches in the beginning I would stick to the former. After you understand the orginal and simple way they are taught you will become more knowledgable to understand when you might be able to get away with different positioning of these bars because of the deeper understanding of price action.
Take care
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakko85
How would you qualify this possible trade?
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Hey Bakko,
That bar is nothing to get excited about. Sure it might give some pips. But it is so small I would classify it a neutral just another bar. You need to be able to avoid these bars and not get excited to hop into a trade. The good ones will stick out. A good looking bar that jumps out + a good area. Now that is where we want to be at. Price is constantly moving, pausing, moving etc. A lot of times you meet an area that might be potentially strong like you have noted on your chart(remember these are zones), But a pause is often mistaken for a pin to trade(ie neutral bar, or small pin bar). This is not really giving us a "tip off" that our area is validated. Instead when you have an important area and clear PA like a big pinbar, then your confidence to trade it can increase greatly.
Just some thoughts
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G550
Mike, would you consider the weekly pin for the Euro (last weeks that is) to be one that "stands out" or was that more of a neutral bar? Seems like the location was pretty good.
Thanks!
-G550
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Hey G5
THe bar itself was good, location was decent. Was it a trade one could take absolutly. What I told members in my webinar was I stayed out b/c of the 1.3 large rd number an major area directly above it. Since it didn't create all that much space(marked by the magenta lines). That one would have to be concerned with the 1.3 area. For me generally the more space the easier it is to hold through what seem like smaller areas. When that space shrinks like on the euro, that area above of 1.3 has to be an area of concern. So one might decide to move stop to b/e, take profit there or whatever. I choose to stay out since it was so closely above. This pin was just not strong enough(after such strong moves down) for the way I trade to buy and hold and "hope" for it to break 1.3. If the pin had more space and was much larger in size I would be willing to hold and try to get above 1.3. Overall price did what you would have expected. 1.3 is still a very key area.
That is just my view and how I trade.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Feb 25, 2009 6:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron
I have posted on Forex Factory several times in the past year under the name PipsterDufus. But I was a James16 PF member under the name catiron, so I have changed to that name here.
I was a PF member for four months and it totally changed my trading results for the better. I have had double digit (%) gains every month since I first joined in September. Unfortunately, February has been a tough month -- tight ranges, low volatility. I am working hard to stay even for the month.
Since August, the market has had tremendous volatility and large...
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Hey Catiron
Glad to hear about your success way to go
Yes some months things just don't go our way with how we trade. It is just part of the business IMO. That is why I never view my trading in terms of monthly results. I view my trading in quarters. That is how I get the best view of how my trading is doing. You don't want to get scared out of what works, by one so-so month or losing month. I watch trades take off all the time that I am not in. There will be thousands and thousands of those in the future and it is just not something you can let effect your reasoning. Actually most people attempt to get into any old trade that has reasonable PA b/c of the fear of missing a move. Then if they stay out and the move goes where they thought it gives them reason to jump on in next time. Then they take a loss, and the psychological beating starts and bad behaviors follow.
You executed your plan for 4 months with great results. If you get off that game plan and let one month or two months destroy everything you built up you can find yourself back at square one. Just execute your trade plan. You have to literally brush the rest of your shoulders. Then that becomes routine also.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 6:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
I have been trying to take partial profit and let the rest run for just awhile. It seems I get up a few percent until the inevitable full position loss comes. I have been taking partial profit at the first area of resistance, rather than 1 to 1. Anyone have any thoughts as to which profit taking is better suited for PA?
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Hey Scot
There really isn't a one size fits all. It is going to come back to the individual trader every time. One thing to do since one should be demo trading to get a feel for everything. Is keep a clean log of your trades. Check back and review what would of happen if you don't take partial profit. What if you took full profit at that first place? Or what happens if you just move your stop to b/e at the first resistance etc. It is all part of the process to get to the next step. This is why demo/research/backtesting is such a crucial step in all of this.
Best
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 6:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
I have been trying to take partial profit and let the rest run for just awhile. It seems I get up a few percent until the inevitable full position loss comes. I have been taking partial profit at the first area of resistance, rather than 1 to 1. Anyone have any thoughts as to which profit taking is better suited for PA?
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Hey Scot
There really isn't a one size fits all. It is going to come back to the individual trader every time. One thing to do since one should be demo trading to get a feel for everything. Is keep a clean log of your trades. Check back and review what would of happen if you don't take partial profit. What if you took full profit at that first place? Or what happens if you just move your stop to b/e at the first resistance etc. It is all part of the process to get to the next step. This is why demo/research/backtesting is such a crucial step in all of this.
Best
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 7:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
Well I take the demo plenty serious, that is not the issue. I suppose I could try a couple months with partial, then try a couple taking total profit. But then when a trade really takes off, I'll be kicking myself. A trade off indeed. I have started saving pics of all my trades, and a journal.
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Sorry Scot maybe some mis-communication. I am not talking about if you are taking it serious or not. I assume you are. I meant to keep track of what would have happened had you exited with multiple methods. Then after you ahve a large enough size you might decide to switch or stay with how you trade. For example. I trail my stops the majority of the time b/c over time I have learned this is what works for me. But I also keep track in my spreadsheet what would happen if I took full profit at the first s/r area. I do this b/c I want to have good real results as my account size grows and I might want to become a more high win rate trader. I used to take partial profits until I realized that my bottom line was significantly decreased by reviewing past trades. You can learn a lot from your trades.
Hope that makes more sense
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 8:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
Mbqb11, sorry I was actually referring to something mentioned by isufreak.
So you like to go to BE and then use your two bar stop most of the time? Yea I need to keep some records to help me decide which way to go, cause my trade selection has been really improving, but that is only part of it.
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No I use a variety of trailing stops or a take profit based on each individual situation.
Yes trade selection is a huge part of it. Just keep at it, keep good records and don't be afraid to really judge your own trading
Best of luck
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 7:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
Well I take the demo plenty serious, that is not the issue. I suppose I could try a couple months with partial, then try a couple taking total profit. But then when a trade really takes off, I'll be kicking myself. A trade off indeed. I have started saving pics of all my trades, and a journal.
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Sorry Scot maybe some mis-communication. I am not talking about if you are taking it serious or not. I assume you are. I meant to keep track of what would have happened had you exited with multiple methods. Then after you ahve a large enough size you might decide to switch or stay with how you trade. For example. I trail my stops the majority of the time b/c over time I have learned this is what works for me. But I also keep track in my spreadsheet what would happen if I took full profit at the first s/r area. I do this b/c I want to have good real results as my account size grows and I might want to become a more high win rate trader. I used to take partial profits until I realized that my bottom line was significantly decreased by reviewing past trades. You can learn a lot from your trades.
Hope that makes more sense
Mike
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Mar 2, 2009 8:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin'
Mbqb11, sorry I was actually referring to something mentioned by isufreak.
So you like to go to BE and then use your two bar stop most of the time? Yea I need to keep some records to help me decide which way to go, cause my trade selection has been really improving, but that is only part of it.
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No I use a variety of trailing stops or a take profit based on each individual situation.
Yes trade selection is a huge part of it. Just keep at it, keep good records and don't be afraid to really judge your own trading
Best of luck
Mike
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Mar 3, 2009 9:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sertio
is this the pin to break the strong support?
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careful here these are the types of bars/trades that will eat up all your good trades.
This is a bearish pin at a swing low(very weak swing high). What that almost always means is you are trading into very strong areas of support as you noted above. The lack of space leads to trouble areas being very close by. You would have to move your stop to b/e very very very fast. Better to wait for the clear ones.
g/j and nzd/usd were both examples of this. With nzd/usd having the most space to run till all those bar highs.
Best
Mike
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Mar 3, 2009 11:14am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Mike,
Just curious, but on average, how many trades do you take a month (just your longer time frame/J16 method trades)?
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daily/weekly end up in the 2-4 range
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Mar 3, 2009 9:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sertio
is this the pin to break the strong support?
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careful here these are the types of bars/trades that will eat up all your good trades.
This is a bearish pin at a swing low(very weak swing high). What that almost always means is you are trading into very strong areas of support as you noted above. The lack of space leads to trouble areas being very close by. You would have to move your stop to b/e very very very fast. Better to wait for the clear ones.
g/j and nzd/usd were both examples of this. With nzd/usd having the most space to run till all those bar highs.
Best
Mike
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Mar 3, 2009 11:14am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Mike,
Just curious, but on average, how many trades do you take a month (just your longer time frame/J16 method trades)?
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daily/weekly end up in the 2-4 range
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Mar 4, 2009 1:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nazeri1111
Hai datogio
I am a newbie. Having reading this thread for a few weeks. I wondered on on your pin bar that you just post here. I haven't had the same bar as yours even though i was looking on the same time frame. I am using fxopen & liteforex as my trading platform. May be you or other people can give some idea what when wrong.
Regards
Nazeri
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Hey Nazeri,
This is a nature of when your bar closes from your broker. Since forex is not centralized you have different closes of bars based on your brokers timezone. Where as every hourly chart will look the same, antyhing above that is going to have a different look depending on the hour the bars close.
The basic rule we all tend to go by is play it as you see it based on the broker you are most comfortable with. For example I prefer a daily close on a 5pm est bar.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 1:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nazeri1111
Hai datogio
I am a newbie. Having reading this thread for a few weeks. I wondered on on your pin bar that you just post here. I haven't had the same bar as yours even though i was looking on the same time frame. I am using fxopen & liteforex as my trading platform. May be you or other people can give some idea what when wrong.
Regards
Nazeri
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Hey Nazeri,
This is a nature of when your bar closes from your broker. Since forex is not centralized you have different closes of bars based on your brokers timezone. Where as every hourly chart will look the same, antyhing above that is going to have a different look depending on the hour the bars close.
The basic rule we all tend to go by is play it as you see it based on the broker you are most comfortable with. For example I prefer a daily close on a 5pm est bar.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 11:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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My favorite area coming up the BIG huge round number of 100. Which way will it take us. 
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Mar 4, 2009 11:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71
Also, someone should point out how this could be worth swinging for a home run. If you get this trade correct, I wouldn't be in a hurry to take profits.....
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very much agree with our resident hairy guy, sometimes everything lines up and you can get your stop to b/e and let it run. With a little(well a lot) of discipline and patience you can ride out some big ones. I had literally picked the bottom on this pair, and still wasn't able to hold it even after telling myself for weeks and weeks. It is all too often easier then done.
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Mar 4, 2009 12:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malvarezdel
You?re right Mike.
I?m now ready, have tightened my SL and waiting for the big show...
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Way to go! You bought around where I did and held it WAY longer then I did. That was the area I was talking about it my previous post.
Been a straight shot to the moon!
Well done
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 1:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapin
Hi,
On the 4H TF, it seems there could be a Bearish Double Top.
My concern is there is 1pip difference between the 2 tops (the first one is 1pip higher).
Is it still considered as a valid figure (1pip is an acceptable error)?
Cheers
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Sure it is more about the area. I am not sure what double top you are seeing yet though. I still think until 100 is hit we should stand aside
here is an example of a potential double top area to keep an eye on
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 2:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr demark
I dont get your pink lines. I feel kinda dumb, what are they?
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They are PPZs or flips b/w support and resistance
down arrows resistance up arrows support
We have both major and minor flips all over any chart
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Mar 4, 2009 11:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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My favorite area coming up the BIG huge round number of 100. Which way will it take us. 
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Mar 4, 2009 11:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71
Also, someone should point out how this could be worth swinging for a home run. If you get this trade correct, I wouldn't be in a hurry to take profits.....
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very much agree with our resident hairy guy, sometimes everything lines up and you can get your stop to b/e and let it run. With a little(well a lot) of discipline and patience you can ride out some big ones. I had literally picked the bottom on this pair, and still wasn't able to hold it even after telling myself for weeks and weeks. It is all too often easier then done.
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Mar 4, 2009 12:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malvarezdel
You?re right Mike.
I?m now ready, have tightened my SL and waiting for the big show...
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Way to go! You bought around where I did and held it WAY longer then I did. That was the area I was talking about it my previous post.
Been a straight shot to the moon!
Well done
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 1:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapin
Hi,
On the 4H TF, it seems there could be a Bearish Double Top.
My concern is there is 1pip difference between the 2 tops (the first one is 1pip higher).
Is it still considered as a valid figure (1pip is an acceptable error)?
Cheers
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Sure it is more about the area. I am not sure what double top you are seeing yet though. I still think until 100 is hit we should stand aside
here is an example of a potential double top area to keep an eye on
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 2:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr demark
I dont get your pink lines. I feel kinda dumb, what are they?
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They are PPZs or flips b/w support and resistance
down arrows resistance up arrows support
We have both major and minor flips all over any chart
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Mar 4, 2009 6:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
I know what you mean....
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Josh congrats on making it through this thread. It was a lot smaller when I had to do it :P
I would say you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I let the market come to me as opposed to trying to chase the market.
Good examples of this would be the BEOB from the usd/chf today. It is coming into loads of traffic and potential trouble areas. A lot of people would open the chart see a beob and sell. Where as I opened the chart see a beob and see problems and just pass. Now the nzd/usd was the only one that caught my interest. It was at an area of interest around the big .5000 mark. Divergence etc. Zoom way out on the weekly for how nice the PPZ is. Will it work, who knows, but at this point I know I have put the odds in my favor the way I like it. In the long run I know that waiting for the market to come to me will be profitable.
Well said Josh you have come a long way
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 7:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakko85
Mike,
i partially agree with you.
Don't you think that could be useful also to take a trade and, then, try to understand what gone wrong? (Obviously this is valid only with a demo account)
This could help a person not to make the same error again in the future, and make your patience the best tool you can use.
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Hey Bakko
It is sort of a double edged sword. Initially yes I agree. It is all about learning the basics and no better way then to get your hands wet. THen the problem is you need to dry your hands, and instead people continue to trade with the belief that by trading you are learning when in fact you are preventing yourself from moving forward. What I mean is that people then can't help but to trade all these setups with the hopes of learning to trade. When in fact by not trading and passing on most setups we are learning a lot more.
Not sure if that makes sense, but it is a fine line for sure
Take care
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 10:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212
Mike
Hello why do you like the BUOB on this pair given large Resistance just above.
Thanks Gerard
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Hey Gerard,
Big round number of .5000, which is a large PPZ
Lots of divergence
Swing low
Bar size larger then previous bars
Close above .5000
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Mar 5, 2009 12:36am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
I was looking at this one earlier, and to me it looks like there is a minor ppz on the daily around .5130. This level is around 45 pips above my buy stop so I'm considering taking partial profit at .5130, setting my stop to BE and then targeting .5200 for the final lots. Does this look good?
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yep that zone is going to be the first problem area if we break the high of the BUOB.
Just always remember these are zones.
Best
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 12:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facti
Hi bro
I'm new in james16 and I found it very valuable then I got to the group and found some video that you and james made, those are SOOOO amazing, Ive learnt alot from them, those are most greatest video that Ive ever watched.
I read at the begining of the thread that james decided to makes some DVD or video or something like this, I just want to make sure if you and james made it how can I reach/buy them.
I'd really appreciate your help
Facti
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Hey Facti
Thanks for the nice words, really glad you are enjoying them. The only ones are the ones that are available within the group and scattered around the forum.
No DVD set from james that i know of , although maybe he will do one on snake breeding
Best
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 1:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facti
thanks for reply dude
for FX sakes do something! record some video if you have time! just kidding
but seriously you wouldnt believe me how much I gained from those video. Great job man, Great job.
so that's the all video that you put on the site, yeah? I thought there would be some more if I joined!
Facti
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haha, oh sorry there are many more inside, I thought you meant inside the PF
Glad to hear you are getting something from them 
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Mar 4, 2009 6:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
I know what you mean....
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Josh congrats on making it through this thread. It was a lot smaller when I had to do it :P
I would say you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I let the market come to me as opposed to trying to chase the market.
Good examples of this would be the BEOB from the usd/chf today. It is coming into loads of traffic and potential trouble areas. A lot of people would open the chart see a beob and sell. Where as I opened the chart see a beob and see problems and just pass. Now the nzd/usd was the only one that caught my interest. It was at an area of interest around the big .5000 mark. Divergence etc. Zoom way out on the weekly for how nice the PPZ is. Will it work, who knows, but at this point I know I have put the odds in my favor the way I like it. In the long run I know that waiting for the market to come to me will be profitable.
Well said Josh you have come a long way
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 7:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakko85
Mike,
i partially agree with you.
Don't you think that could be useful also to take a trade and, then, try to understand what gone wrong? (Obviously this is valid only with a demo account)
This could help a person not to make the same error again in the future, and make your patience the best tool you can use.
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Hey Bakko
It is sort of a double edged sword. Initially yes I agree. It is all about learning the basics and no better way then to get your hands wet. THen the problem is you need to dry your hands, and instead people continue to trade with the belief that by trading you are learning when in fact you are preventing yourself from moving forward. What I mean is that people then can't help but to trade all these setups with the hopes of learning to trade. When in fact by not trading and passing on most setups we are learning a lot more.
Not sure if that makes sense, but it is a fine line for sure
Take care
Mike
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Mar 4, 2009 10:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212
Mike
Hello why do you like the BUOB on this pair given large Resistance just above.
Thanks Gerard
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Hey Gerard,
Big round number of .5000, which is a large PPZ
Lots of divergence
Swing low
Bar size larger then previous bars
Close above .5000
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Mar 5, 2009 12:36am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
I was looking at this one earlier, and to me it looks like there is a minor ppz on the daily around .5130. This level is around 45 pips above my buy stop so I'm considering taking partial profit at .5130, setting my stop to BE and then targeting .5200 for the final lots. Does this look good?
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yep that zone is going to be the first problem area if we break the high of the BUOB.
Just always remember these are zones.
Best
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 12:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facti
Hi bro
I'm new in james16 and I found it very valuable then I got to the group and found some video that you and james made, those are SOOOO amazing, Ive learnt alot from them, those are most greatest video that Ive ever watched.
I read at the begining of the thread that james decided to makes some DVD or video or something like this, I just want to make sure if you and james made it how can I reach/buy them.
I'd really appreciate your help
Facti
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Hey Facti
Thanks for the nice words, really glad you are enjoying them. The only ones are the ones that are available within the group and scattered around the forum.
No DVD set from james that i know of , although maybe he will do one on snake breeding
Best
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 1:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facti
thanks for reply dude
for FX sakes do something! record some video if you have time! just kidding
but seriously you wouldnt believe me how much I gained from those video. Great job man, Great job.
so that's the all video that you put on the site, yeah? I thought there would be some more if I joined!
Facti
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haha, oh sorry there are many more inside, I thought you meant inside the PF
Glad to hear you are getting something from them 
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Mar 5, 2009 11:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Would this be a (good) pinbar, I have doubts because the open and close are pretty far from each other.
I am new to J16 and am learning constantly so you can expect some more questions from me every once in a while.
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Hey Artov
The bar itself is a good pinbar but the location is not what we look for ideally. That type of pinbar(bullish) we want to find at a swing LOW point. In your chart that is towards a swing high point.
Oh and ask away!
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 11:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
Chris , I took 9 weekly setups this year , 5 hit SL (and 9th in DD) so I wouldn?t say the time frame is the problem. And yes I was demoing 3 months first.
Here are my daily and weekly levels, a lot of room up to next level, however the trade is not taken from daily PPZ but 4H PPZ (dashed line)
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Alter I can understand your frustration, but it isn't just about demoing. It is about demoing till you get consistent. Then moving slowly to live so that demoing translates to live. Timeframes like the 1hr will eat up most traders if they can't do it on the higher. The need to process information quicker and lots of less important bars seem more important then they are(location becomes even more important on the lower timeframes to know what really carries weight). Those of us say this b/c we have been there before and don't want everyone else to have to feel the same angst and frustration, believe me. A lot of seniors here have different ideas of how to go about learning, but most of us agree that it should be done on the higher timeframes either way.
As a side note here is what smacked your trade down before it could get off its feet.
Just keep at it, it is a long road, but can be made shorter with a few simple things.
Take care bud
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 1:52pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Santana55
Resident experts:
I have a question regarding PA bars. With regard to a PB or BUOB/BEOB if the next bar does not trigger your entry (eg. on a bullish PB the high of the PB is not taken out by the next bar or on a BUOB its high is not broken by next bar) is the signal no longer valid at that point or can you still take the signal to go long on the following bar (the second bar after the PB or BUOB)?
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Hey Santana,
Depending on how strong you might feel about the bar you might decide to leave your order there until the bar gets invalidated(such as the low of the BUOB being penetrated). I prefer to cancel my order if the next bar does not trigger my order. I like to see momentum/follow through.
-Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 11:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Would this be a (good) pinbar, I have doubts because the open and close are pretty far from each other.
I am new to J16 and am learning constantly so you can expect some more questions from me every once in a while.
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Hey Artov
The bar itself is a good pinbar but the location is not what we look for ideally. That type of pinbar(bullish) we want to find at a swing LOW point. In your chart that is towards a swing high point.
Oh and ask away!
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 11:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
Chris , I took 9 weekly setups this year , 5 hit SL (and 9th in DD) so I wouldn?t say the time frame is the problem. And yes I was demoing 3 months first.
Here are my daily and weekly levels, a lot of room up to next level, however the trade is not taken from daily PPZ but 4H PPZ (dashed line)
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Alter I can understand your frustration, but it isn't just about demoing. It is about demoing till you get consistent. Then moving slowly to live so that demoing translates to live. Timeframes like the 1hr will eat up most traders if they can't do it on the higher. The need to process information quicker and lots of less important bars seem more important then they are(location becomes even more important on the lower timeframes to know what really carries weight). Those of us say this b/c we have been there before and don't want everyone else to have to feel the same angst and frustration, believe me. A lot of seniors here have different ideas of how to go about learning, but most of us agree that it should be done on the higher timeframes either way.
As a side note here is what smacked your trade down before it could get off its feet.
Just keep at it, it is a long road, but can be made shorter with a few simple things.
Take care bud
Mike
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Mar 5, 2009 1:52pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Santana55
Resident experts:
I have a question regarding PA bars. With regard to a PB or BUOB/BEOB if the next bar does not trigger your entry (eg. on a bullish PB the high of the PB is not taken out by the next bar or on a BUOB its high is not broken by next bar) is the signal no longer valid at that point or can you still take the signal to go long on the following bar (the second bar after the PB or BUOB)?
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Hey Santana,
Depending on how strong you might feel about the bar you might decide to leave your order there until the bar gets invalidated(such as the low of the BUOB being penetrated). I prefer to cancel my order if the next bar does not trigger my order. I like to see momentum/follow through.
-Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 10:51am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
the more times price rejects/bounces off of a ppz, does it mean it is less likely or more likely to break thru on the next approach?
& are there any j16 continuation signals? it seems whenever price is approaching a ppz we look for reversal signals (pin, ob, etc.). what pa signals tell us that price will break thru the ppz & old resistance will become new support (& vice versa)?
my only guess would be that we dont get a j16 reversal signal & that we just keep watching price. then if it breaks thru resistance & then comes back to support, then what...
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Hey DK,
Generally(and remember there is no one way), the more price knocks on a PPZ the likelihood for some kind of break in that direction is more likely. So If price just keeps knocking at the same point over and over, it has a good chance of breaking through. When price is approaching from far away the PZZ could have a stronger chance of holding. But again, it depends on every scenario, I could show you a million both ways, and a million against what I just said.
As for signals, J16 PA can work as continuation signals also. I use them both ways. I just believe they are harder to play that way in the beginning. The easiest is to look for them as reversals and a lot of power that way.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 2:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This summary is in no way intended to replace reading the whole thread.
Josh
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Josh your perseverance, dedication, and hard work is EXACTLY what it takes to make it in this business
I commend your efforts and look forward to watching you make it to the finish line
Enjoy your weekend, beers on me
Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 2:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov
Hi how's it going guys?
Today I just realized that although I'm not trading as much as the last quarter of last year...I actually make a more profit...simply by trading less and less...
I hardly put 1 trade in a week...it's just because I try to focus on the higher probability positions..."The path of the least resistance" thingy
Of course it doesn't occur everyday/weeks/months..and even so there's always the unexpected results...but then again nothing is 100% in life
Thanks for teaching me such an important traits james....patience...
Well...
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Way to go Xcov
this is a HUGE step. When you trade to make money, not trade to trade
Looks like everyone earned the weekend
Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 10:51am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
the more times price rejects/bounces off of a ppz, does it mean it is less likely or more likely to break thru on the next approach?
& are there any j16 continuation signals? it seems whenever price is approaching a ppz we look for reversal signals (pin, ob, etc.). what pa signals tell us that price will break thru the ppz & old resistance will become new support (& vice versa)?
my only guess would be that we dont get a j16 reversal signal & that we just keep watching price. then if it breaks thru resistance & then comes back to support, then what...
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Hey DK,
Generally(and remember there is no one way), the more price knocks on a PPZ the likelihood for some kind of break in that direction is more likely. So If price just keeps knocking at the same point over and over, it has a good chance of breaking through. When price is approaching from far away the PZZ could have a stronger chance of holding. But again, it depends on every scenario, I could show you a million both ways, and a million against what I just said.
As for signals, J16 PA can work as continuation signals also. I use them both ways. I just believe they are harder to play that way in the beginning. The easiest is to look for them as reversals and a lot of power that way.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 7, 2009 9:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Santana55
Hey grinder
Thanks for the kind words, means a lot!
I think I understand your question, but if I am mis-interpreting just let me know.
If you zoom out a lot on the daily, we can't see any support areas. This tells me we are nearly in "no mans land"(see pic 1). So this immediately lets me know I have to go up a timeframe or two.
[b]So if we jump up to the weekly now we can start to get a better idea of the zone for potential support(marked by the blue box on pic 2). This is the area for me. If you jump up...
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Hey S,
No it isn't riskier, or wrong or anything like that. If that is what you are comfortable with then that is fine. I have no idea how clock trades really. I keep things as simple as possible, part of how I do this is keep things separated for the most part. But for example on breakout trades I am usually going a timeframe lower to look for a trigger, so that is the same as dropping down to daily using s/r.
There is no one way to do this stuff. Just right ways to go about it. Learning key concepts and putting the pieces together in a way that works for YOU. My way is just how I have put the pieces together. Clocks is his way etc. You won't find one better then the other. It is what is better for YOU.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 2:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This summary is in no way intended to replace reading the whole thread.
Josh
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Josh your perseverance, dedication, and hard work is EXACTLY what it takes to make it in this business
I commend your efforts and look forward to watching you make it to the finish line
Enjoy your weekend, beers on me
Mike
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Mar 6, 2009 2:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov
Hi how's it going guys?
Today I just realized that although I'm not trading as much as the last quarter of last year...I actually make a more profit...simply by trading less and less...
I hardly put 1 trade in a week...it's just because I try to focus on the higher probability positions..."The path of the least resistance" thingy
Of course it doesn't occur everyday/weeks/months..and even so there's always the unexpected results...but then again nothing is 100% in life
Thanks for teaching me such an important traits james....patience...
Well...
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Way to go Xcov
this is a HUGE step. When you trade to make money, not trade to trade
Looks like everyone earned the weekend
Mike
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Mar 9, 2009 12:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattfx
Hello all,
Wanted to share something with you. I have been also using trendlines for sometime both long and short upper (opposite as well) myself for some time, not sure whether trend lines have been discussed that much here (other than side to side action) yet I have found this most helpful when trying to consider whether there has been a trend change. You can also incorporate fibs into the equation. Some may have thought that low around 96.50 may have broken the support area of 97 yet all it did was run "smack bang" into the upper tl. Does this...
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Hey Matt,
Yes a lot of us use TLs here too. In your case above they are good when looking for additional confluence to support a trade idea. I only like the really obvious ones, and also use them to trade breakouts off. James only uses horizontal support/resistance. I like trendlines when they are used in the most simplistic obvious way.
Thanks for sharing, and I agree with your usd/jpy analysis
Mike
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Mar 9, 2009 1:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheArtist
Hi all,
Anyone watching possible DBHLC, on 61.8% Ret for EURGBP?
The thick red line is weekly pivot R2 which could contain it though.
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Hey Theartisit
Remember for a DBHLC , we need the close to be LOWER then the previous bars LOW. This would be a TBH(two bar high)
Mike
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Mar 7, 2009 9:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Santana55
Hey grinder
Thanks for the kind words, means a lot!
I think I understand your question, but if I am mis-interpreting just let me know.
If you zoom out a lot on the daily, we can't see any support areas. This tells me we are nearly in "no mans land"(see pic 1). So this immediately lets me know I have to go up a timeframe or two.
[b]So if we jump up to the weekly now we can start to get a better idea of the zone for potential support(marked by the blue box on pic 2). This is the area for me. If you jump up...
|
Hey S,
No it isn't riskier, or wrong or anything like that. If that is what you are comfortable with then that is fine. I have no idea how clock trades really. I keep things as simple as possible, part of how I do this is keep things separated for the most part. But for example on breakout trades I am usually going a timeframe lower to look for a trigger, so that is the same as dropping down to daily using s/r.
There is no one way to do this stuff. Just right ways to go about it. Learning key concepts and putting the pieces together in a way that works for YOU. My way is just how I have put the pieces together. Clocks is his way etc. You won't find one better then the other. It is what is better for YOU.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 9, 2009 12:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattfx
Hello all,
Wanted to share something with you. I have been also using trendlines for sometime both long and short upper (opposite as well) myself for some time, not sure whether trend lines have been discussed that much here (other than side to side action) yet I have found this most helpful when trying to consider whether there has been a trend change. You can also incorporate fibs into the equation. Some may have thought that low around 96.50 may have broken the support area of 97 yet all it did was run "smack bang" into the upper tl. Does this...
|
Hey Matt,
Yes a lot of us use TLs here too. In your case above they are good when looking for additional confluence to support a trade idea. I only like the really obvious ones, and also use them to trade breakouts off. James only uses horizontal support/resistance. I like trendlines when they are used in the most simplistic obvious way.
Thanks for sharing, and I agree with your usd/jpy analysis
Mike
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Mar 9, 2009 1:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheArtist
Hi all,
Anyone watching possible DBHLC, on 61.8% Ret for EURGBP?
The thick red line is weekly pivot R2 which could contain it though.
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Hey Theartisit
Remember for a DBHLC , we need the close to be LOWER then the previous bars LOW. This would be a TBH(two bar high)
Mike
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Mar 10, 2009 10:22am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Looks like a nice pinbar to me, but again some PPZ there.
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yep glad to see you identify that
also another thing I always like to do personally is keep my charts a bit more zoomed out. Notice how small this pin looks now compared to being zoomed in. Then it looks like a super big pin.
Mike
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Mar 10, 2009 5:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seboileroom
Does this patter of double highs and higher close have any significance?
Seb
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Hey Seb,
That would be what we call a TBH(two bar high). This shows a stall in the move, or when the TBH is broken can be a sign of a continuation with the move
Mike
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Mar 10, 2009 5:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxsheep
what do you think? good to go?
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Hey Sheep
I think bars like that are better off left alone. I know my rep is the ultra conservative trader but being the pinbar is so small, it is hard for me to believe that it is going to carry much weight. Could stall out on the prior bars low if it does move lower still about 40 mins till my bar closes though
take care
Mike
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Mar 10, 2009 10:22am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Looks like a nice pinbar to me, but again some PPZ there.
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yep glad to see you identify that
also another thing I always like to do personally is keep my charts a bit more zoomed out. Notice how small this pin looks now compared to being zoomed in. Then it looks like a super big pin.
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 12:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This didn't end up closing as a pinbar on my feed. It also didn't form at a swing high. Plus as mentioned, it's right at a PPZ zone. I've found it necessary to be extra picky in recent days, as the signals just aren't very clear... Oh yeah, and stick to day/week charts.
Josh
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agreed Josh, we can't force the issue when the markets chop up
the signals will come
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 12:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
I keep a watch on that one too, but still more than an hour to go for me on the fxpro chart.
Look at the 1hr pb on crude oil (fx pro), I missed that but beautiful pinbar trade there.
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This is the only way I use pinbars as continuations in my intraday trading.
Large Round number/PPZ that is well defined. Large Pinbar is at a swing low, but price broke out and pulled back.
Then you would have to watch for the bar lows to move stop to b/e at the least.
But it is from my experience that unless you can learn to play pins at the best spots(swing highs /swing lows) for bearish/bullish respectfully, these continuation pins will eat you up....Especially on the lower timeframes.
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Mar 11, 2009 1:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Looks ok, I like the location a lot (same spot as the 8hr pin if you check your 4h charts, also decent PPZ and round number). Trades into loads of traffic though, not really worth it to me at least.
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yes you have to be so much more careful if you are trading into these areas on the 1hr. They can and will bounce time and time again. This is why James stresses the need for the higher timeframes(and why this type of post is made shortly after some 1hr charts :P ). These types of trades will more times then not give a trader hell over and over. The lower the timeframe the more picky I personally become, and strict on where I will take a trade.
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Mar 10, 2009 5:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seboileroom
Does this patter of double highs and higher close have any significance?
Seb
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Hey Seb,
That would be what we call a TBH(two bar high). This shows a stall in the move, or when the TBH is broken can be a sign of a continuation with the move
Mike
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Mar 10, 2009 5:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxsheep
what do you think? good to go?
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Hey Sheep
I think bars like that are better off left alone. I know my rep is the ultra conservative trader but being the pinbar is so small, it is hard for me to believe that it is going to carry much weight. Could stall out on the prior bars low if it does move lower still about 40 mins till my bar closes though
take care
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 12:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This didn't end up closing as a pinbar on my feed. It also didn't form at a swing high. Plus as mentioned, it's right at a PPZ zone. I've found it necessary to be extra picky in recent days, as the signals just aren't very clear... Oh yeah, and stick to day/week charts.
Josh
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agreed Josh, we can't force the issue when the markets chop up
the signals will come
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 12:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
I keep a watch on that one too, but still more than an hour to go for me on the fxpro chart.
Look at the 1hr pb on crude oil (fx pro), I missed that but beautiful pinbar trade there.
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This is the only way I use pinbars as continuations in my intraday trading.
Large Round number/PPZ that is well defined. Large Pinbar is at a swing low, but price broke out and pulled back.
Then you would have to watch for the bar lows to move stop to b/e at the least.
But it is from my experience that unless you can learn to play pins at the best spots(swing highs /swing lows) for bearish/bullish respectfully, these continuation pins will eat you up....Especially on the lower timeframes.
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Mar 11, 2009 1:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Looks ok, I like the location a lot (same spot as the 8hr pin if you check your 4h charts, also decent PPZ and round number). Trades into loads of traffic though, not really worth it to me at least.
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yes you have to be so much more careful if you are trading into these areas on the 1hr. They can and will bounce time and time again. This is why James stresses the need for the higher timeframes(and why this type of post is made shortly after some 1hr charts :P ). These types of trades will more times then not give a trader hell over and over. The lower the timeframe the more picky I personally become, and strict on where I will take a trade.
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Mar 11, 2009 5:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyonspot
Where is crude on fxpro? What is the symbol and under what category, i.e., CFD, Futures, etc.? Futures I am guessing, but which symbol?
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#clj9
if you just highlight with your cursor it will tell you what each security is
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Mar 11, 2009 9:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
I would like to get some commentary on this g/u 4hr pb trade which got stopped out. Like why it got stopped would be good to know lol.
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hey artov
Your chart is very zoomed in making that bar look more significant then it is. Zoom out a bit and you can see how very small that bar is. We need to look for clear pinbars that show significance. This was nothing more then another bar. It actually stopped in an area we would expect a bar of such small size to stop. I always recommend zooming charts out to get a much better idea of location and bar size.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 9:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Thanks Mike, I have been thinking always like a pinbar is a pinbar but it seems indeed that they need to be more significant.
That trade got 22 pips in the green before getting stopped out. Would you have moved stoploss to BE at that point?
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Hey Artov
THe more you do this the more you realize the pinbar is just a small piece to the complete puzzle. Where these bars are located and what they look like carries much more weight.
This trade would be one I would pass without even thinking twice about it, but yes if you felt so inclined to take this your stop has to be at b/e when you start approaching those prior bar highs.
With practice the good ones will speak to you.
Keep at it and that is what this thread is for
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 5:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyonspot
Where is crude on fxpro? What is the symbol and under what category, i.e., CFD, Futures, etc.? Futures I am guessing, but which symbol?
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#clj9
if you just highlight with your cursor it will tell you what each security is
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Mar 11, 2009 9:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
I would like to get some commentary on this g/u 4hr pb trade which got stopped out. Like why it got stopped would be good to know lol.
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hey artov
Your chart is very zoomed in making that bar look more significant then it is. Zoom out a bit and you can see how very small that bar is. We need to look for clear pinbars that show significance. This was nothing more then another bar. It actually stopped in an area we would expect a bar of such small size to stop. I always recommend zooming charts out to get a much better idea of location and bar size.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 11, 2009 9:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artov
Thanks Mike, I have been thinking always like a pinbar is a pinbar but it seems indeed that they need to be more significant.
That trade got 22 pips in the green before getting stopped out. Would you have moved stoploss to BE at that point?
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Hey Artov
THe more you do this the more you realize the pinbar is just a small piece to the complete puzzle. Where these bars are located and what they look like carries much more weight.
This trade would be one I would pass without even thinking twice about it, but yes if you felt so inclined to take this your stop has to be at b/e when you start approaching those prior bar highs.
With practice the good ones will speak to you.
Keep at it and that is what this thread is for
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 12:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
I'm following the minimum requirements that james has outlined for traders new to these methods. I have been trading this method for 4 months being ultra picky on daily charts. I have taken only 3 setups and they have all been winners. I know James requires 3 profitable months in a row to move to the next step. Do you guys think that I should keep trading for a few months until I move to the next step since I have only taken 3 daily setups?
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way to go scott, that shows some true discipline and dedication, exactly what it takes to make it.
If you still feel the need to keep at it on demo, by all means go for it. If not you could up a very small account say a few hundred and continue to do what you are doing.
Continued success
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 12:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
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Gorgeous looking G/J pin. Closing on the right side of good confluence. 
.
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yes so true LOL
Even I couldn't resist trading this one off a feed I barely watch. Markets have plain sucked for a bit lately but patience to wait for these bad boys is where it is at
Last edited by mbqb11, Mar 12, 2009 1:19pm
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Mar 12, 2009 1:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flem26
geez, and I thought I was the only one that thought the market has sucked lately. And of course I missed this pin . . . slept in.  you notice the pin geppy is sporting on the daily?
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yes might make me hold this, we'll see. And i Meant PLAIN not plane....geez I am usually pretty good with that
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Mar 12, 2009 1:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
Mike,
I took this BEOB on USD/JPY last week. I took half off at 97.00 for around 65 pips profit. I set my stop to BE on the second half and I got stopped out at BE. After I was taken out at BE, if I held I would have been in decent drawdown, but then it started to move in my favor. Also, after I got taken out I saw that large pin form in the opposite direction and I was glad I got out, especially since I set my stop to BE before NFP came out.
How would you have traded this setup (if you even took it in the first place)?
Thanks,
Scott
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Hey Scott,
I was waiting to see what happened a bit higher at the 100 mark. So I passed on this trade. But being that we have been in a strong move up and the close support where you marked I think you played it perfectly to be honest. We have to take what the market gives in those types of situations.
Keep at it
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 3:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
wow thats cool. how do we keep that from getting lost?
jim
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Jim you could link that in your first post somewhere
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Mar 12, 2009 12:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
I'm following the minimum requirements that james has outlined for traders new to these methods. I have been trading this method for 4 months being ultra picky on daily charts. I have taken only 3 setups and they have all been winners. I know James requires 3 profitable months in a row to move to the next step. Do you guys think that I should keep trading for a few months until I move to the next step since I have only taken 3 daily setups?
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way to go scott, that shows some true discipline and dedication, exactly what it takes to make it.
If you still feel the need to keep at it on demo, by all means go for it. If not you could up a very small account say a few hundred and continue to do what you are doing.
Continued success
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 12:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
.
Gorgeous looking G/J pin. Closing on the right side of good confluence. 
.
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yes so true LOL
Even I couldn't resist trading this one off a feed I barely watch. Markets have plain sucked for a bit lately but patience to wait for these bad boys is where it is at
Last edited by mbqb11, Mar 12, 2009 1:19pm
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Mar 12, 2009 1:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flem26
geez, and I thought I was the only one that thought the market has sucked lately. And of course I missed this pin . . . slept in.  you notice the pin geppy is sporting on the daily?
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yes might make me hold this, we'll see. And i Meant PLAIN not plane....geez I am usually pretty good with that
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Mar 12, 2009 1:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
Mike,
I took this BEOB on USD/JPY last week. I took half off at 97.00 for around 65 pips profit. I set my stop to BE on the second half and I got stopped out at BE. After I was taken out at BE, if I held I would have been in decent drawdown, but then it started to move in my favor. Also, after I got taken out I saw that large pin form in the opposite direction and I was glad I got out, especially since I set my stop to BE before NFP came out.
How would you have traded this setup (if you even took it in the first place)?
Thanks,
Scott
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Hey Scott,
I was waiting to see what happened a bit higher at the 100 mark. So I passed on this trade. But being that we have been in a strong move up and the close support where you marked I think you played it perfectly to be honest. We have to take what the market gives in those types of situations.
Keep at it
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 5:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard
This was an easy and highly profitable trade.
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Wiz you did have a little help,....cough struck by lighting cough 
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Mar 12, 2009 6:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
If I had to choose "only" one, I would take EJ.
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I agree Hip I could see reasons to take a lot of these. Don't go crazy guys, pick the 1 best, or 2 if you are so inclined. Realize that their is heavy correlation though and stick to your MM rules!
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 9:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldbird22
Mike what is MM rules?
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Hey Gold
MM meaning Money Mgmt rules. Knowing that all these pairs are heavily correlated at the moment if you go ahead and risk 2% a trade and take 5 xxx/jpy pairs, it is more or less like having 10% risk out on extremely correlated pairs. Most people have rules in place to keep them from getting over exposed to the market in times like this.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 3:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
wow thats cool. how do we keep that from getting lost?
jim
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Jim you could link that in your first post somewhere
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Mar 12, 2009 9:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldbird22
Thanks Gorubin and Mike
BTW when you say times like this, are you refering to volatility?
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I more meant the fact that we have similar signals across correlated pairs(ie xxx/jpy pairs)
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 5:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard
This was an easy and highly profitable trade.
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Wiz you did have a little help,....cough struck by lighting cough 
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Mar 12, 2009 6:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
If I had to choose "only" one, I would take EJ.
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I agree Hip I could see reasons to take a lot of these. Don't go crazy guys, pick the 1 best, or 2 if you are so inclined. Realize that their is heavy correlation though and stick to your MM rules!
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 9:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldbird22
Mike what is MM rules?
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Hey Gold
MM meaning Money Mgmt rules. Knowing that all these pairs are heavily correlated at the moment if you go ahead and risk 2% a trade and take 5 xxx/jpy pairs, it is more or less like having 10% risk out on extremely correlated pairs. Most people have rules in place to keep them from getting over exposed to the market in times like this.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 12, 2009 9:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldbird22
Thanks Gorubin and Mike
BTW when you say times like this, are you refering to volatility?
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I more meant the fact that we have similar signals across correlated pairs(ie xxx/jpy pairs)
Mike
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Mar 13, 2009 9:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra
I'm a noob myself, a complete beginner on recovery process.
I've blown two accounts and now I'm back on the healing path. All my trades are on demo, even this EUR/CHF which brought easy 450 pips was demo. As I'm following the first page rules.However I don't regret I haven't taken it on a real account cause I know when I will be confident and grown enough to a...
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Way to go pakiestra it all begins in our head, and ends in our head also. Admittance and then taking the rest steps is where it starts. Just keep at it following James advice and you will have a great chance at success in this business
Best of luck
Mike
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Mar 13, 2009 9:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra
I'm a noob myself, a complete beginner on recovery process.
I've blown two accounts and now I'm back on the healing path. All my trades are on demo, even this EUR/CHF which brought easy 450 pips was demo. As I'm following the first page rules.However I don't regret I haven't taken it on a real account cause I know when I will be confident and grown enough to a...
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Way to go pakiestra it all begins in our head, and ends in our head also. Admittance and then taking the rest steps is where it starts. Just keep at it following James advice and you will have a great chance at success in this business
Best of luck
Mike
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Mar 13, 2009 12:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
It will depend how the day unfolds for me and if the trade is long term. With any short term trades; if my tp has not been hit and price has not moved substantially away from my entry, I may close for the weekend. But, I generally believe that the influential market participants already have their minds made. Of course, I could be wrong and they are going to change the world in two days.....insert twilight zone music. 
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I agree with Hip, Usually if my stop is far enough off market price that I am comfortable holding I will
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Mar 13, 2009 12:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
It will depend how the day unfolds for me and if the trade is long term. With any short term trades; if my tp has not been hit and price has not moved substantially away from my entry, I may close for the weekend. But, I generally believe that the influential market participants already have their minds made. Of course, I could be wrong and they are going to change the world in two days.....insert twilight zone music. 
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I agree with Hip, Usually if my stop is far enough off market price that I am comfortable holding I will
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Mar 14, 2009 3:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan
Hi all, long time reader, first post.
Missed this one on Thursday evening/Friday morning.
48 hour pin bar around pivot level (grey box - above that i've drawn what the pin would look like over 48 hours).
Ideal opening would have been a Buy Stop at 136.55 with a target of next resistance at 141.
The price is now 64 points gone although i think it's still within range considering the target level. May take this with a stop below Friday's bar.
Would be great to get your thoughts.
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Hey Dan
Welcome to your first post
You said a lot of key words in your post. "missed" "ideal" "price is now 64 pts GONE".
All leading to a chasing entry. Yes the entry was above the high of the BUOB(see raczefxs entry). Don't go chasing this entry now. If you missed the trade you missed the trade. Many more will come and go. Although I agree we will probably visit higher, if I miss my entry then I don't go after the trade anymore. It is a bad habit in my opinon.
Next areas to watch for me are a bounce at 140 or a possible break of this level and then if we pullback to it and it turns back to support. Big PPZ at this level.
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Mar 14, 2009 3:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan
Hi all, long time reader, first post.
Missed this one on Thursday evening/Friday morning.
48 hour pin bar around pivot level (grey box - above that i've drawn what the pin would look like over 48 hours).
Ideal opening would have been a Buy Stop at 136.55 with a target of next resistance at 141.
The price is now 64 points gone although i think it's still within range considering the target level. May take this with a stop below Friday's bar.
Would be great to get your thoughts.
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Hey Dan
Welcome to your first post
You said a lot of key words in your post. "missed" "ideal" "price is now 64 pts GONE".
All leading to a chasing entry. Yes the entry was above the high of the BUOB(see raczefxs entry). Don't go chasing this entry now. If you missed the trade you missed the trade. Many more will come and go. Although I agree we will probably visit higher, if I miss my entry then I don't go after the trade anymore. It is a bad habit in my opinon.
Next areas to watch for me are a bounce at 140 or a possible break of this level and then if we pullback to it and it turns back to support. Big PPZ at this level.
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Mar 15, 2009 2:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212
Rustyjeff
Hi , can i ask for clarification on these with a chart if possible.
Thanks Gerard
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Hey Gerard
This is when you combine 2 bars and view them as if they were one. So you take the open from the first day, and the close from the second day. You also use the highest high from either day, and the lowest low. Basically just combining the price action over the course of 2days. Put them together and you have a 2 day pinbar. Often times the second bar is an inside bar, or something of the sorts, but to view it as a combined pin, or a 2day pin is a technique many use. Same to be said for a 8hr pin which would be combining two 4hr pins. Simply aggregating the price differently then what is given to us through a charting program.
Ex chart
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Mar 15, 2009 2:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212
Rustyjeff
Hi , can i ask for clarification on these with a chart if possible.
Thanks Gerard
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Hey Gerard
This is when you combine 2 bars and view them as if they were one. So you take the open from the first day, and the close from the second day. You also use the highest high from either day, and the lowest low. Basically just combining the price action over the course of 2days. Put them together and you have a 2 day pinbar. Often times the second bar is an inside bar, or something of the sorts, but to view it as a combined pin, or a 2day pin is a technique many use. Same to be said for a 8hr pin which would be combining two 4hr pins. Simply aggregating the price differently then what is given to us through a charting program.
Ex chart
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Mar 15, 2009 1:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Hey G my answers below in bold FF has some new quote system thing so It will look a bit weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
Well, it's early days yet, but I've read all the early posts again and watched all the vids on the site, and this is making huge sense to me already - a real lightbulb moment (or more accurately a - hopefully continuing - series of light bulb moments)!
Yes many more lightbulb moments will come, but glad you had a big one you will never look back
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
But I can see that there is a lot to learn and practice (it's all about seeing it on the charts I guess - a deceptively simple-sounding statement but not so easy to achieve!). I'm certainly going to follow the time scales set out in the first post and on the site and demo trade for a fair while to come, but I'd also like to develop a structured learning strategy which enables me to grasp the details over time.
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yes it is simple in concept and execution of it is rather simple, but the learning process to get to that point takes awhile, but it is NOT impossible and is just a matter if patience, discipline, and dedication
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
With this in mind, can I ask a very beginners question?...
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The pivots referred into this thread are Price Pivot Zones, or commonly reffered to as PPZ. These are different then trader pivot points. PPZs are flips in support and resistance. Check here for more information
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
To use a metaphor, trading must be the only activity where you can be handed the keys (do they have keys?!) to an F16 fighter plane and be told to take her for a spin right away - and there are plenty of 'snake oil salesmen' out there who will claim to be able to show you how to fly it in a weekend (for a fat fee of course)!...
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Very good analogy. It is true for anything in life. It takes time. To think that we can conquer and run a business in a few months or fly a plane after a few weekends would be crazy. So why is forex any different? It isn't and those that realize this like yourself have a shot.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 15, 2009 1:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Hey G my answers below in bold FF has some new quote system thing so It will look a bit weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
Well, it's early days yet, but I've read all the early posts again and watched all the vids on the site, and this is making huge sense to me already - a real lightbulb moment (or more accurately a - hopefully continuing - series of light bulb moments)!
Yes many more lightbulb moments will come, but glad you had a big one you will never look back
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
But I can see that there is a lot to learn and practice (it's all about seeing it on the charts I guess - a deceptively simple-sounding statement but not so easy to achieve!). I'm certainly going to follow the time scales set out in the first post and on the site and demo trade for a fair while to come, but I'd also like to develop a structured learning strategy which enables me to grasp the details over time.
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yes it is simple in concept and execution of it is rather simple, but the learning process to get to that point takes awhile, but it is NOT impossible and is just a matter if patience, discipline, and dedication
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
With this in mind, can I ask a very beginners question?...
|
The pivots referred into this thread are Price Pivot Zones, or commonly reffered to as PPZ. These are different then trader pivot points. PPZs are flips in support and resistance. Check here for more information
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084
Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
To use a metaphor, trading must be the only activity where you can be handed the keys (do they have keys?!) to an F16 fighter plane and be told to take her for a spin right away - and there are plenty of 'snake oil salesmen' out there who will claim to be able to show you how to fly it in a weekend (for a fat fee of course)!...
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Very good analogy. It is true for anything in life. It takes time. To think that we can conquer and run a business in a few months or fly a plane after a few weekends would be crazy. So why is forex any different? It isn't and those that realize this like yourself have a shot.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 15, 2009 9:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar
What up kids? Nice to see lots of the ol' FF family still around.
Sorry to jack your thread...
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DS! 
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Mar 15, 2009 9:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar
What up kids? Nice to see lots of the ol' FF family still around.
Sorry to jack your thread...
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DS! 
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Mar 16, 2009 10:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
thanks joe i will go look.
jim
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damn I thought I was the only one to call 7k bottom, I probably subconsciously stole it from Jim
Forget my own analysis LOL
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Mar 16, 2009 11:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Aren't you guys a little over-confident considering the bearish PA? This may have been Bemac's point but I have trouble deciphering the snake
I think Raczekfx actually called 6600.
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mine was simply from awhile back when the disconnect b/w the DOW being the leader and everything else doing what it wants for once(ie carries moving higher dow moving lower). Be it temporary or not. I don't trade these markets personally. I did move my parents IRA back into some equities though.
I do like Marks recent chart of a move down and then a bounce higher again. My thoughts exactly.
Mike
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Mar 16, 2009 11:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
OK: Banter aside:
What's the big deal about DOW 7,000.
We gotta be talking Ancient Supp OR Steal of a Deal.
If it is the Latter; list YOUR 5. please.
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well you can see we do have support around 7k level and under(see chart), nothing to go crazy about
But I found the disconnect b/w the DOW being the leader and everything else not caring anymore(to follow) very interesting when we were still above 7k
My guess back then was run at 7k(+ lower to shake out the weak entice more selling). And here we are now.
Am I trading this, nope, but still find it interesting personally.
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Mar 16, 2009 11:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose
We should create a pool and winner take all...
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inground or overground? tough to transport the former
sorry couldn't resist
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Mar 16, 2009 10:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
thanks joe i will go look.
jim
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damn I thought I was the only one to call 7k bottom, I probably subconsciously stole it from Jim
Forget my own analysis LOL
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Mar 16, 2009 11:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Aren't you guys a little over-confident considering the bearish PA? This may have been Bemac's point but I have trouble deciphering the snake
I think Raczekfx actually called 6600.
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mine was simply from awhile back when the disconnect b/w the DOW being the leader and everything else doing what it wants for once(ie carries moving higher dow moving lower). Be it temporary or not. I don't trade these markets personally. I did move my parents IRA back into some equities though.
I do like Marks recent chart of a move down and then a bounce higher again. My thoughts exactly.
Mike
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Mar 16, 2009 11:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
OK: Banter aside:
What's the big deal about DOW 7,000.
We gotta be talking Ancient Supp OR Steal of a Deal.
If it is the Latter; list YOUR 5. please.
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well you can see we do have support around 7k level and under(see chart), nothing to go crazy about
But I found the disconnect b/w the DOW being the leader and everything else not caring anymore(to follow) very interesting when we were still above 7k
My guess back then was run at 7k(+ lower to shake out the weak entice more selling). And here we are now.
Am I trading this, nope, but still find it interesting personally.
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Mar 16, 2009 11:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose
We should create a pool and winner take all...
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inground or overground? tough to transport the former
sorry couldn't resist
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Mar 17, 2009 12:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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HAHAH i knew it would set it off
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Mar 17, 2009 1:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
are red sox fans allowed in there?

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Mar 17, 2009 1:45am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
oh ok i get it. just the pretty drunk ones.

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exception to every rule
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Mar 17, 2009 12:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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HAHAH i knew it would set it off
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Mar 17, 2009 1:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
are red sox fans allowed in there?

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Mar 17, 2009 1:45am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
oh ok i get it. just the pretty drunk ones.

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exception to every rule
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Mar 17, 2009 7:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
"Price-Action / Multiple Bottoms/tops /Divergence
A strong case could be made to trade nothing else"
Too right Jim.
I've even considered creating another sub-account for this purpose only. Really should just do it. lol
When I do wake up to it, this is a situation I don't even have to think about much before entering.
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agreed.
a big part of the reason this works so well in my opinion is because it is a concrete area to wait and look for PA. Where as a lot of other areas can be "less concrete" in nature and leads to forcing trades.
Double tops/bottoms and big round numbers are my favorite, because they help limit specific areas to focus ones attention for PA. Then if you find other confluences at this area it is
Jim is the man 
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Mar 17, 2009 7:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
"Price-Action / Multiple Bottoms/tops /Divergence
A strong case could be made to trade nothing else"
Too right Jim.
I've even considered creating another sub-account for this purpose only. Really should just do it. lol
When I do wake up to it, this is a situation I don't even have to think about much before entering.
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agreed.
a big part of the reason this works so well in my opinion is because it is a concrete area to wait and look for PA. Where as a lot of other areas can be "less concrete" in nature and leads to forcing trades.
Double tops/bottoms and big round numbers are my favorite, because they help limit specific areas to focus ones attention for PA. Then if you find other confluences at this area it is
Jim is the man 
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Mar 17, 2009 9:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
does everyone here just use the standard macd settings 12,26,9? i dont see anyone else using any other indy for divergence reading, so is macd considered the best? thx.
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Most of us use the standard yes, as the big guy does. But you really can use any oscillator, many might prefer an RSI or what not. But standard MACD, and obvious clear divergence is where its at
Mike
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Mar 17, 2009 9:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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as supplement to above post
Often oscillators will line up with signals as well. I prefer the clean simplicity(smoothness) of the macd
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Mar 18, 2009 12:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade. Why should I avoid it any reason. Was my stop loss was not enough to hold this position?
I get loss on my real account but I want to learn from my mistake. So please give any comments to help me to investigate that trade:
I bought at 1.4118 (time was 16 March 23:16) with stop loss 1.4025 and TP at 1.4200.
Jamie,
I will appreciate if you can...
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Hey Jamie
The question I would be asking myself is why would two small 1hr bar highs be enough to continue a trend or movement upwards. My answer would be it would be a very tough trade to take especially on such a small timeframe. Now if you had two matching weekly bar highs, now you can bet that those matching highs or resistance when broken would hold more significance. This is part of the reason James stresses the need to start out on the daily/weekly. Bars hold more power, and then when in the right location hold even more power.
My advice is to stick to the larger timeframes(daily/weekly) when starting out. And look for the big obvious bars. The most common of which are outside bars and pinbars. Big clear obvious bars will tell a much more clear story and are much easier to spot.
If you have more questions let me know
Mike
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Mar 18, 2009 8:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Mike, talking about daily/weekly TF, how many pips on average would you look at? I noticed the difficulty of trading smaller TFs; when I move on to daily, found very hard to sustain managing a trade more than one day, most times, I had about 150pips, but, I refuse to take profit as I determined to do a position trade ( my understanding on daily TF is something like position trading, correct me if I am wrong, please), that is a duration from one day to a couple of week, therefore, 150pips means nothing to me when I consider using daily. but, most...
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Hey Krue
I don't really have a set answer for you. I really don't even think about pips so to speak. I just manage my trades according to what I believe is the best game plan. I have a eur/jpy open for some 200+ pips and a nzd/jpy for around 100. I only even know that because you asked me so I took a peak. Instead I manage each and every trade based on the situation and the approach I feel is best. I take what the market offers. Sometimes that is a loss/small loss / small win / large win.
Sorry if that isn't what you wer hoping for
Mike
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Mar 17, 2009 9:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
does everyone here just use the standard macd settings 12,26,9? i dont see anyone else using any other indy for divergence reading, so is macd considered the best? thx.
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Most of us use the standard yes, as the big guy does. But you really can use any oscillator, many might prefer an RSI or what not. But standard MACD, and obvious clear divergence is where its at
Mike
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Mar 17, 2009 9:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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as supplement to above post
Often oscillators will line up with signals as well. I prefer the clean simplicity(smoothness) of the macd
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Mar 18, 2009 12:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 786 trading
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade. Why should I avoid it any reason. Was my stop loss was not enough to hold this position?
I get loss on my real account but I want to learn from my mistake. So please give any comments to help me to investigate that trade:
I bought at 1.4118 (time was 16 March 23:16) with stop loss 1.4025 and TP at 1.4200.
Jamie,
I will appreciate if you can...
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Hey Jamie
The question I would be asking myself is why would two small 1hr bar highs be enough to continue a trend or movement upwards. My answer would be it would be a very tough trade to take especially on such a small timeframe. Now if you had two matching weekly bar highs, now you can bet that those matching highs or resistance when broken would hold more significance. This is part of the reason James stresses the need to start out on the daily/weekly. Bars hold more power, and then when in the right location hold even more power.
My advice is to stick to the larger timeframes(daily/weekly) when starting out. And look for the big obvious bars. The most common of which are outside bars and pinbars. Big clear obvious bars will tell a much more clear story and are much easier to spot.
If you have more questions let me know
Mike
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Mar 18, 2009 8:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Mike, talking about daily/weekly TF, how many pips on average would you look at? I noticed the difficulty of trading smaller TFs; when I move on to daily, found very hard to sustain managing a trade more than one day, most times, I had about 150pips, but, I refuse to take profit as I determined to do a position trade ( my understanding on daily TF is something like position trading, correct me if I am wrong, please), that is a duration from one day to a couple of week, therefore, 150pips means nothing to me when I consider using daily. but, most...
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Hey Krue
I don't really have a set answer for you. I really don't even think about pips so to speak. I just manage my trades according to what I believe is the best game plan. I have a eur/jpy open for some 200+ pips and a nzd/jpy for around 100. I only even know that because you asked me so I took a peak. Instead I manage each and every trade based on the situation and the approach I feel is best. I take what the market offers. Sometimes that is a loss/small loss / small win / large win.
Sorry if that isn't what you wer hoping for
Mike
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Mar 18, 2009 11:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uBERpIP
Good day everyone....demo account noobie here, trying to get my head around these ideas.
Much appreciated if someone can comment on my observations of the following chart and let me know if I am on the right track.
Oanda starts new candles at midnight EST, so there is a lot of time left in the day....
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Hey Uberpip(must be a gamer :P )
You got a TON of time left in the day that anything and everything can change if you are using the oanda close time
Here is what I see, as if and only if response to your if and only if post
If this did form a pinbar, it would be in a lot of traffic and not at a true swing high. This lack of space(noted by the small dashed magenta lines), means that there is "something" near by that can hold price up. This something being the arrows, blue PPZ box.
Notice if you zoom out a bit, how un-interesting so to speak this dailybar would become. This to me is a sure sign to pass and let price do what it is going to do.
One thing is, often times we know where price is going to go with pretty good conviction, but if we wait for the times when we have a much higher conviction those are the trades to take. Everything else to me is "waiting" time.
As for a bit of a zoomed out view. Well here is another chart of how I see things at the moment.
Hope that helps
Mike
ps happy bday chris sent you a message real early in the PF :P
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Mar 18, 2009 11:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uBERpIP
Good day everyone....demo account noobie here, trying to get my head around these ideas.
Much appreciated if someone can comment on my observations of the following chart and let me know if I am on the right track.
Oanda starts new candles at midnight EST, so there is a lot of time left in the day....
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Hey Uberpip(must be a gamer :P )
You got a TON of time left in the day that anything and everything can change if you are using the oanda close time
Here is what I see, as if and only if response to your if and only if post
If this did form a pinbar, it would be in a lot of traffic and not at a true swing high. This lack of space(noted by the small dashed magenta lines), means that there is "something" near by that can hold price up. This something being the arrows, blue PPZ box.
Notice if you zoom out a bit, how un-interesting so to speak this dailybar would become. This to me is a sure sign to pass and let price do what it is going to do.
One thing is, often times we know where price is going to go with pretty good conviction, but if we wait for the times when we have a much higher conviction those are the trades to take. Everything else to me is "waiting" time.
As for a bit of a zoomed out view. Well here is another chart of how I see things at the moment.
Hope that helps
Mike
ps happy bday chris sent you a message real early in the PF :P
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Mar 18, 2009 11:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This is the last time in my trading career that I want to feel hopeless/helpless/a failure. Therefore, I'm treating this as a career and a business. I'm working on getting fully educated. When I start trading with live money, I want to be fully confident and comfortable in what I'm doing, and have demo results to back me up and prove it.
Josh
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Josh man you continue to impress me 
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Mar 18, 2009 11:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This is the last time in my trading career that I want to feel hopeless/helpless/a failure. Therefore, I'm treating this as a career and a business. I'm working on getting fully educated. When I start trading with live money, I want to be fully confident and comfortable in what I'm doing, and have demo results to back me up and prove it.
Josh
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Josh man you continue to impress me 
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Mar 18, 2009 6:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Congrats tae ma Island Friends. Beaten down an' came oot like a banshee fir the second.
Well played.
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Bemac is easy to decipher
key = few drinks beforehand
One of the few peoples whos post you should read every single one of. Experience lucky enough to share with the rest of us
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Mar 18, 2009 6:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Here is one I am watching
Silver 12.00 is a big ppz(see weekly chart),
Big bar BUOB, a break of buob would be break of a small trendline around 13.10
Not a recommendation
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Mar 18, 2009 7:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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i know February was a rather slow month which frustrated a lot of people(and also chopped at a lot of accounts)
Don't forget markets spend most time consolidating but then we get days/weeks/months like march has been thus far
Stick a post-it to your monitor that says PATIENCE if you have too(I know I have before).
Update to eur/jpy(many xxx/jpys similar)
Suck in a main channel b/w 115 and 120 PPZs(chart 1). We got our bullish outside bar which was stuck in the middle of a smaller Consolidation clear channel. Bar was big, and the size of the channel. Clear signal a breakout higher was coming.
Notice the size of the channel, if measure top to bottom, is a rough projection(many use - see pring) that points to where we are now top of the bigger channel and the 130 rd number/ppz. Interesting when things line up like that we can just
Also note there was a breakout + pullback on the 4hr. This came in the form of a 4hr BUOB off the top of the former channel. Yet another signal that tipped us off higher and we didn't need any BS indicators
Mike
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Mar 18, 2009 6:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Congrats tae ma Island Friends. Beaten down an' came oot like a banshee fir the second.
Well played.
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Bemac is easy to decipher
key = few drinks beforehand
One of the few peoples whos post you should read every single one of. Experience lucky enough to share with the rest of us
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Mar 18, 2009 6:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Here is one I am watching
Silver 12.00 is a big ppz(see weekly chart),
Big bar BUOB, a break of buob would be break of a small trendline around 13.10
Not a recommendation
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Mar 18, 2009 7:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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i know February was a rather slow month which frustrated a lot of people(and also chopped at a lot of accounts)
Don't forget markets spend most time consolidating but then we get days/weeks/months like march has been thus far
Stick a post-it to your monitor that says PATIENCE if you have too(I know I have before).
Update to eur/jpy(many xxx/jpys similar)
Suck in a main channel b/w 115 and 120 PPZs(chart 1). We got our bullish outside bar which was stuck in the middle of a smaller Consolidation clear channel. Bar was big, and the size of the channel. Clear signal a breakout higher was coming.
Notice the size of the channel, if measure top to bottom, is a rough projection(many use - see pring) that points to where we are now top of the bigger channel and the 130 rd number/ppz. Interesting when things line up like that we can just
Also note there was a breakout + pullback on the 4hr. This came in the form of a 4hr BUOB off the top of the former channel. Yet another signal that tipped us off higher and we didn't need any BS indicators
Mike
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Mar 18, 2009 6:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Congrats tae ma Island Friends. Beaten down an' came oot like a banshee fir the second.
Well played.
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Bemac is easy to decipher
key = few drinks beforehand
One of the few peoples whos post you should read every single one of. Experience lucky enough to share with the rest of us
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Mar 18, 2009 6:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Here is one I am watching
Silver 12.00 is a big ppz(see weekly chart),
Big bar BUOB, a break of buob would be break of a small trendline around 13.10
Not a recommendation
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Mar 18, 2009 7:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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i know February was a rather slow month which frustrated a lot of people(and also chopped at a lot of accounts)
Don't forget markets spend most time consolidating but then we get days/weeks/months like march has been thus far
Stick a post-it to your monitor that says PATIENCE if you have too(I know I have before).
Update to eur/jpy(many xxx/jpys similar)
Suck in a main channel b/w 115 and 120 PPZs(chart 1). We got our bullish outside bar which was stuck in the middle of a smaller Consolidation clear channel. Bar was big, and the size of the channel. Clear signal a breakout higher was coming.
Notice the size of the channel, if measure top to bottom, is a rough projection(many use - see pring) that points to where we are now top of the bigger channel and the 130 rd number/ppz. Interesting when things line up like that we can just
Also note there was a breakout + pullback on the 4hr. This came in the form of a 4hr BUOB off the top of the former channel. Yet another signal that tipped us off higher and we didn't need any BS indicators
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 10:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Anyone shorted EU? H1 has Pinbar, which is at swing extreme high.
I enterred the first pin, stopped out, re-enter at the second one.
Another pray now, hope could have comments from anyone of you. thank you
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Hey Krue
Be careful here, the first bar isn't a pinabr as the open and close are not within the previous bar. The second bar now is a pin, but again you are on the 1hr chart, and the nose hardly protrudes(which would mean a very poor pin to me D grade). Remember it is the location of these bars and the 1hr charts are very difficult. Remember to follow James requirements in post 1 they are VERY VERY important.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 1:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Here is one I am watching
Silver 12.00 is a big ppz(see weekly chart),
Big bar BUOB, a break of buob would be break of a small trendline around 13.10
Not a recommendation
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an update
j16 > all 
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Mar 19, 2009 10:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Anyone shorted EU? H1 has Pinbar, which is at swing extreme high.
I enterred the first pin, stopped out, re-enter at the second one.
Another pray now, hope could have comments from anyone of you. thank you
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Hey Krue
Be careful here, the first bar isn't a pinabr as the open and close are not within the previous bar. The second bar now is a pin, but again you are on the 1hr chart, and the nose hardly protrudes(which would mean a very poor pin to me D grade). Remember it is the location of these bars and the 1hr charts are very difficult. Remember to follow James requirements in post 1 they are VERY VERY important.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 1:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Here is one I am watching
Silver 12.00 is a big ppz(see weekly chart),
Big bar BUOB, a break of buob would be break of a small trendline around 13.10
Not a recommendation
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an update
j16 > all 
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Mar 19, 2009 6:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs
with you on that one - have an order pending - also on the usdchf which is a similar setup.
The only thing that concerns me is the very steep decline - almost like catching a falling knife - this seems to be a trade off to the "cherry picking" setups that Mike likes.
what say you, Mike - a rip cherry or falling knife?
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falling knife. Notice the large size of the previous bars. THen notice the close is not within the previous bars body(only a rule for falling knife theory). Small bar, NOT enough to reverse a huge move for me. Also next bar didn't break. These I don't touch with a 10 foot pole(well ok my account)
Take care
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 9:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
traffic? fighting against a minor resistance at the moment? wait for breakout off of the Pin high would be better, if one don't think it's in traffic? this pair has been in consolidation quite long, so, an explosive move might be expected? it is an ascending triangle having bullish implication, isn't it?
These are the information I am having
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remember the open and close must be within the prior bar to be a pinbar.
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Mar 19, 2009 9:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
Kind of like a rotten cherry, the ones you bite into once.
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lol yes exactly
the falling knife pin, is deadly. It is just a break in the action, before the freefall continues. I have been burned on enough of those too know when the symptoms of one are occurring and to stay out.
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Mar 19, 2009 9:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
anyone ever tried drawing them from the close of a bar instead of its high? or drawing it from a high (or highest) ppz to a low (or lowest) ppz? or do most draw them from the high of the swing high bar & since thats how most do it & trade off of, then thats how we should all do it? just a thought.
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the idea with a tool like a fib that is IMO some would debate otherwise, a pure Self fulfilling prophecy tool
So you want to draw it from where everyone else would draw it. This would be clear swing high and swing low points. THe more obvious the swing points the better IMO.
Like most things in the trading world, there are different approaches but I always speak from my experiences
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 10:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
What are those symptoms? I picked up on the close being within the body of the previous bar.
As posted I entered on the 1hr pin because it occurred right where I was watching. That then turned into the 4hr pin, again at a very nice location everything else excluded. Isn't the location right where we would want it?
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Are you talking about the usd/chf (that was what my post was in response too simoncs).
If you look at the following pinbars on gbp/jpy
I scrolled the chart over to the right so you could see the lengths
If the pinbar is small you are not going to reverse a HUGE move down 9/10. Another thing is when the close and open are not within the previous bars BODY, not just bar but body. This happens over and over when they fail like that(last chart)
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Mar 19, 2009 10:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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the type of bar I personally need to reverse a huge move.
Again if something works for you don't fix what ain't broken. But I am just speaking from experience of getting burned
Best
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 10:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Actually Mike, I was referring to the Usd/Jpy, not sure how to link to my previous post so here is what I saw. I didn't like the chf pb as it was pointing right into a ppz. This on the other hand formed right at where I wanted it. I entered on the 1hr and the fruit seems to be ripening. Do you see much difference between this and the chf?
This is something I have just started trading. As I have gotten better at defining my ppz I see pairs almost always gives something in these areas. I would have been out already but with the 4hr pin I set my stop...
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Both are examples of what I refered to in my last 2 posts. Chart 1 that pin is so small on the hour, that I personally wouldn't even blink twice at it. And then that usd/jpy 4hr pin is what I speaking about with the body. Granted the next bar didn't break either, but you also have 95 rd number right above it
Again if it works for you then don't change a thing. Just my experiences to share
Take care
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
Hi GUYs
Hope you are all heading for millionaires row with your trading. Have been at this fx business for a while now but have lost focus/discipline recently for various reasons, one being I am a sucker for 'I'm making ???'s a day easy on the FTSE/DOW, etc' type threads, of which there are many. Also, have not been, like J16 says, treating this like a business. Have been doing things like going down to 15m TF and looking for pins, because some guys on other forums tell me they are making fortunes doing this - I can't seem to resist these...
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It often takes that "pushed to my last straw" to finally approach and tackle things the right way. If you do you will never look back. All those threads of X% a day etc, should be used as nothing more but entertainment b/c it is a joke.
Glad to hear you going at it the right way Bertie 
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Mar 19, 2009 6:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs
with you on that one - have an order pending - also on the usdchf which is a similar setup.
The only thing that concerns me is the very steep decline - almost like catching a falling knife - this seems to be a trade off to the "cherry picking" setups that Mike likes.
what say you, Mike - a rip cherry or falling knife?
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falling knife. Notice the large size of the previous bars. THen notice the close is not within the previous bars body(only a rule for falling knife theory). Small bar, NOT enough to reverse a huge move for me. Also next bar didn't break. These I don't touch with a 10 foot pole(well ok my account)
Take care
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 11:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
I thought the point is to take perfect setups. A+ tades. Maybe it's just me but wouldn't be easier to find A+ setup if we can trade 78 markets than just 20?
I took this week just EURNZD weekly beob, GBPUSD weekly buob, silver daily buob and nzdjpy H4 PIN, so I dont think I overtrade just asking if it is smart to trade shares.
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hey alter
Yes you are correct more markets give you more opportunities
I think clock was just reading into your statement "i dont have enough trades per day" . Even if you watch 80 markets you might have zero trades every day/week
But yes watching more markets with very strict criteria of what to trade is better then watching 2-3 pairs and forcing the issue
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 12:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
Is this a failed pinbar? or anyone will take this trade?
the white arrow.
USD/JPY Daily

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Hey chisan
See how the open and close are in the middle of the bar, and you have noses of about equal length protruding from both sides. This is a neutral bar(shows indecision in the market)
Best
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 1:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
thanks for the reply.
'See how the open and close are in the middle of the bar' what will the be the best scenario? open and close at the end on the bar?
'you have noses of about equal length protruding from both sides' can you elaborate more on this?
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see in chart 1 how the open and close are near the top portion of the bar. This is a requirement(to be near the upper portion for a bullish pin, and lower portion for a bearish pin. As the open and close get more near the middle of the bar like your usd/jpy that goes from a pinbar to a neutral bar. Pin bars have long noses protruding from just one end. Neutral bars have tails on both ends created by open and close being near middle of bar(see chart).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 1:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
thank you. understood fully now. btw i saw on your chart you have a countdown timer do the bar to end. what indicator is that?
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here ya go 
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Mar 19, 2009 9:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
traffic? fighting against a minor resistance at the moment? wait for breakout off of the Pin high would be better, if one don't think it's in traffic? this pair has been in consolidation quite long, so, an explosive move might be expected? it is an ascending triangle having bullish implication, isn't it?
These are the information I am having
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remember the open and close must be within the prior bar to be a pinbar.
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Mar 19, 2009 9:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
Kind of like a rotten cherry, the ones you bite into once.
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lol yes exactly
the falling knife pin, is deadly. It is just a break in the action, before the freefall continues. I have been burned on enough of those too know when the symptoms of one are occurring and to stay out.
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Mar 19, 2009 9:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
anyone ever tried drawing them from the close of a bar instead of its high? or drawing it from a high (or highest) ppz to a low (or lowest) ppz? or do most draw them from the high of the swing high bar & since thats how most do it & trade off of, then thats how we should all do it? just a thought.
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the idea with a tool like a fib that is IMO some would debate otherwise, a pure Self fulfilling prophecy tool
So you want to draw it from where everyone else would draw it. This would be clear swing high and swing low points. THe more obvious the swing points the better IMO.
Like most things in the trading world, there are different approaches but I always speak from my experiences
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 10:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
What are those symptoms? I picked up on the close being within the body of the previous bar.
As posted I entered on the 1hr pin because it occurred right where I was watching. That then turned into the 4hr pin, again at a very nice location everything else excluded. Isn't the location right where we would want it?
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Are you talking about the usd/chf (that was what my post was in response too simoncs).
If you look at the following pinbars on gbp/jpy
I scrolled the chart over to the right so you could see the lengths
If the pinbar is small you are not going to reverse a HUGE move down 9/10. Another thing is when the close and open are not within the previous bars BODY, not just bar but body. This happens over and over when they fail like that(last chart)
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Mar 19, 2009 10:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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the type of bar I personally need to reverse a huge move.
Again if something works for you don't fix what ain't broken. But I am just speaking from experience of getting burned
Best
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 10:38pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Actually Mike, I was referring to the Usd/Jpy, not sure how to link to my previous post so here is what I saw. I didn't like the chf pb as it was pointing right into a ppz. This on the other hand formed right at where I wanted it. I entered on the 1hr and the fruit seems to be ripening. Do you see much difference between this and the chf?
This is something I have just started trading. As I have gotten better at defining my ppz I see pairs almost always gives something in these areas. I would have been out already but with the 4hr pin I set my stop...
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Both are examples of what I refered to in my last 2 posts. Chart 1 that pin is so small on the hour, that I personally wouldn't even blink twice at it. And then that usd/jpy 4hr pin is what I speaking about with the body. Granted the next bar didn't break either, but you also have 95 rd number right above it
Again if it works for you then don't change a thing. Just my experiences to share
Take care
Mike
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Mar 19, 2009 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
Hi GUYs
Hope you are all heading for millionaires row with your trading. Have been at this fx business for a while now but have lost focus/discipline recently for various reasons, one being I am a sucker for 'I'm making ???'s a day easy on the FTSE/DOW, etc' type threads, of which there are many. Also, have not been, like J16 says, treating this like a business. Have been doing things like going down to 15m TF and looking for pins, because some guys on other forums tell me they are making fortunes doing this - I can't seem to resist these...
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It often takes that "pushed to my last straw" to finally approach and tackle things the right way. If you do you will never look back. All those threads of X% a day etc, should be used as nothing more but entertainment b/c it is a joke.
Glad to hear you going at it the right way Bertie 
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Mar 20, 2009 11:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
I thought the point is to take perfect setups. A+ tades. Maybe it's just me but wouldn't be easier to find A+ setup if we can trade 78 markets than just 20?
I took this week just EURNZD weekly beob, GBPUSD weekly buob, silver daily buob and nzdjpy H4 PIN, so I dont think I overtrade just asking if it is smart to trade shares.
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hey alter
Yes you are correct more markets give you more opportunities
I think clock was just reading into your statement "i dont have enough trades per day" . Even if you watch 80 markets you might have zero trades every day/week
But yes watching more markets with very strict criteria of what to trade is better then watching 2-3 pairs and forcing the issue
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 12:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
Is this a failed pinbar? or anyone will take this trade?
the white arrow.
USD/JPY Daily

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Hey chisan
See how the open and close are in the middle of the bar, and you have noses of about equal length protruding from both sides. This is a neutral bar(shows indecision in the market)
Best
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 1:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
thanks for the reply.
'See how the open and close are in the middle of the bar' what will the be the best scenario? open and close at the end on the bar?
'you have noses of about equal length protruding from both sides' can you elaborate more on this?
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see in chart 1 how the open and close are near the top portion of the bar. This is a requirement(to be near the upper portion for a bullish pin, and lower portion for a bearish pin. As the open and close get more near the middle of the bar like your usd/jpy that goes from a pinbar to a neutral bar. Pin bars have long noses protruding from just one end. Neutral bars have tails on both ends created by open and close being near middle of bar(see chart).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 20, 2009 1:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisan
thank you. understood fully now. btw i saw on your chart you have a countdown timer do the bar to end. what indicator is that?
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here ya go 
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Mar 23, 2009 11:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seboileroom
The contents of the links are already included in the document in their order. However, here is a post that contains the first group of the links where you can connect to any of them:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...2331&page=1550
It is Post No. 23250 of Jduester.
Seb
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Seb cool stuff thanks for taking the time, I am sure many appreciate it 
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Mar 23, 2009 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juribe2
Hi Seb,
What program is requiered to open those files?
Thanks,
Juan
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Hey Juan
They are zip files with PDF in them. Just use winzip, or camUnzip
Mike
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Mar 23, 2009 12:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benem
Hallo Guys i need your help about exit strategy ....  .
I 'm Demo-trading PA as James 16 teaches with good results on Daily TF,but i am quite unsure about my exit strategy.I'am used to divide my 1% risk per trade in a 2 positions of 0,5% and to bring SL at BE once TP1 is reached and then let price run until TP2.
What do you think about my method ? Shall i switch to lower time frame looking for PA to get out of a position????
I am very confused.....please help 
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Hey Benem
This is always one of the toughest questions to answer. Each trader is going to find what is comfortable for them. Does your plan sound logical? Yes it certainly does, but until you get enough data under you, you won't know if it will work. What I always suggest is firstly backtest the hell out of the way you think you are going to trade. Take down the data with various exit strats. Also when you are trading demo forward. Keep a spreadsheet with different exit strategy variables. In 6-8 months you will have a nice set of data and you can re-evaluate. Example. You trade your demo with the method you stated above. But also track what would happen if you would have took full profit at TP1, or full profit at TP2, etc. This will give you a lot of data to review down the line.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 23, 2009 8:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uBERpIP
If I were combining the two bars marked by the yellow arrow to create a 2 day pin bar, should my entry be based on: - break of bar #1 (sky blue line)
- break of bar #2 (red line)
I realize that this set up would not have far to go before running into resistance, especially compared with the stop loss necessary.
Just wondering about appropriate entry when combining bars.
Thanks in advance....and slow this thread down so I can keep up! 
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Hey Uber
You would want to use the high of bar one if you were combining them both. If you were not looking at them as combined bars then you could trade the Inside bar by itself. But when you combine the bars you take open from the first, and close from the second. You then take the highest high of both, and the lowest low of both.
Best
Mike
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Mar 23, 2009 8:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
this may sound crazy but i almost feel a sense of graitude to these bars and how they have changed my life over the years. it took the price flips to make them really work for me and i feel the same way about them.
it is very common for me to say out loud to my computer screen.
THANK YOU!!!
they rarely fail me if i "treat" them right.
i love it when i see that same graititude toward them from some of you.
they are "market condition" proof and that is why they work such a high percentage of the time if treated correctly.
the holy grail...
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my inspiration and the man for my thank yous
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Mar 24, 2009 6:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
James and others,
Do you really not think its better to trade smallest lots possible with a small account and prove there u could be positive for 3 months etc, or is it merely the fact that psychologically you think people wont stick to it ?
For me, on demo my mind just tells me to take trades i may not ordinarily take, regardless of how much i tell myself to be honest about it ...

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I personally never learned on Demo, b/c that wasn't the way I was introduced to forex 7 years ago. But what I will say is that fiji trader said something about demo that changed my mind in my recommendations to others. It was about doing it on demo because this is challenging your own ego. If you can't fight that ego on a demo you won't be able to put your ego behind you with real money. It has to do with taking control of your ego now before it comes back to haunt you down the road. Fiji is just a plain genius
Mike
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Mar 24, 2009 6:29am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I don't share here much, but I read it religiously every day. I wanted to chime in with a couple of things that have been clicking for me.
I've been backtesting using a backtest program. Which means taking trades manually while the market replays as live. It's a great way to get experience under my belt and it means that I can take or pass on 40 weekly pinbars in a day, rather than waiting 3 years for them to appear in demo. I used to think backtesting was to find out if the system works, and hell why did I need that because I believed Jim. Now...
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You know how I feel about his topic
Nice post Aaron thanks for sharing publicly 
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Mar 24, 2009 2:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajhill
hi all, first post on the thread and have to say after reading from page 1, its a brilliant thread....
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Hey Tony welcome to the thread
Here would be my take on the situation. The 130-131 area was clear strong resistance/support(aka PPZ). So if trading this pinbar short you are trading directly into this area. IMO this means your stop needs to get to b/e as we approach this area(marked in blue).
What I would be watching for is this area to turn back into support and look for supporting PA there.
Again still a good amount of time before the bar closes
Best
Mike
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Mar 24, 2009 6:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ady27
Sorry my friend, it is not technically PB (look at the 2 day chart). the rules says:
1. close must be lower then the open of the a PB (see price action.pdf)
2. The body has to be inside the previous bar body. (mbqb11, mike religion)
so maybe it will work out, but I'll pass, there are better ones out there... check a/j...
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technically speaking the open and close must only be within the prior bar, not the body.
I personally prefer(but it isn't a hard rule) to have the open and close within the previous body, and it is always better if that close is lower then the open. NOT a hard fast rule though
Mike
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Mar 24, 2009 7:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Honest Bill
Hi,
I assume most here are using a broker where the daily bar closes when NY closes. Am I right?
If so, can you tell me which broker to open an MT4 demo account with.
Note, I'm not looking for broker recommendations. I just want to get similar data to this thread.
Thanks in advance,
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James uses IBFX, so most in here use it. The other popular one is FXpro because of the earlier close(now 6pm est) and amount of securities available. Not everyone trades but simply charts with an mt4
Mike
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Mar 25, 2009 12:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seboileroom
HI Guys;
I am short EU (don't ask), two mini lots, entries at 534 and 518. Now what!! Should i close with loss or wait? SL at 650.
Thanks for your advise;
Seb
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Seb I mean this with the very best intentions, that you shouldn't be trading real money. You need to go back and follow James advice outlined in post 1, about demoing. If you enter a trade and then need to come to ask what to do with it, these are things that need to be dealt with on demo account. We ALL want to see you succeed here and have been through it. The best way to come out with a fighting chance is to listen to the big guy
Take care but and keep asking questions though
MIke
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Mar 25, 2009 3:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
1) Never can it be so. Period Exclamation etc. etc.
2) Don't chase it but allow it to come to you. This takes Time & Focus.
3) Mentally Chasing Pips you left on the table will do one of two things.
a} Drive you Nuts.
b} Give you a further education.
Make sure you know which track you are on.
4) As long as the "Push" is in the basement. Don't Push the Front, that has only one outcome. Push the Understanding.
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awesome B
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Mar 25, 2009 6:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
Hi all - I'm still learning what the different PA bar patterns mean but am I right in thinking that a BEOB at a Swing High is a reversal pattern, whereas a BEOB in a stalled down trend is a continuation pattern?...
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Yes you are correct. A BEOB at a swing high, which is the taught way to0 trade it signifies a reversal, where as a BEOB at a swing low signifies a continuation. It is in my experience the latter takes more experience to get a handle on.
Your example of USD/CHF I would see something like this. If you break the low of the BEOB you are also breaking nearly a 4 bar low. These can often signal continuations, or what you get is a quick breakout before price pullsback. One would expect that price would likely break down and stall at the next set of prior lows. as seen in chart
Best
Mike
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Mar 25, 2009 10:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexDude
Hello, I followed that trade and instead of going down, it went up...
Same happened with AUD..
any ideas?
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Hey FX dude
It did actually go down, and right to where we would have expected it to bounce
Remember location and what is around our bars is the MOST crucial thing.
See chart below
Mike
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Mar 25, 2009 11:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexDude
Hello mbqb11, can you please tell me which indicators you are using in your chart to know where it will bounce?? (orange lines)
And what are the red tick lines?
Thank you.
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Hey Dude
Those orange lines are simply major round numbers. For eur/jpy 130 was a major round number, and previous support and resistance area, also refered to as a PPZ(price pivot zone). Which is the flip b/w the support and resistance. The purple lines are highlighting the larger range/consolidation we were in. You can see by the red arrows the highs, that were former resistance caused price to bounce off as support today
Keep at it
Mike
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Mar 25, 2009 11:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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whoops sorry that is my fault I posted the eur/jpy while his question was NZD/JPY
But both charts are similar. My bad 
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Mar 25, 2009 11:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPP
So what now, is the pin still valid, i think i saw Rac talking about trading the retracement (will have to go back and find the post) or what do we look for now.
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Technically speaking the pin is still valid till the high is broken. But it already did as we expecting. IMO it is very difficult to have traded this one any other way then the James16 "day trade off daily charts". Meaning you should have done something at the point it hit the heavy ppz area 130/131ish area. I personally Was still long the BUOB from awhile ago, used that pin to move my stop to lock in profit. Next for me was looking for PA to go long back off the major PPZ area. It had a 4hr pin, but was just not quite good enough for me personally to long.
So now it is a waiting game
Mike
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Mar 25, 2009 11:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marcelnyo
I can't believe I actually googled that word... must be lack of sleep
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Mar 26, 2009 12:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankm7
Greetings! This is my first post  I've been demo trading for about 3-4 months unsuccessfully. I found this thread and so far have been very impressed! I'm on page 132 and I intend to read through it all. Then, I'll join the PF and continue learning... I am truly grateful to James and everyone else who has invested their time on this amazing thread.
Here is my first question, is what I highlighted in blue a PPZ? It seems that the area is strong S/R. Thanks in advance!
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Welcome Frank, your first post and you NAILED it.
Yes that is, well done
PS you will never look back
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Mar 26, 2009 12:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 786 trading
Please need more explanation.
I had just started your thread by reading from begining and I am on demo and trading only daily/weekly.
I have two questions please:
As a beginner should I take only A setup or should I also take B and C setups too to train ourselves that how price react.
My second question is that once we know that price will go down but on support it will bounce which are few pips as comapred to our risk above the pin bar. Should we still trade on this pin bar?
Thanks Jim and Mike and all gurus to help me.
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Well NO guru here for sure but,
I think as someone new to it you should do as your doing trading only daily/weekly and A setups. I think with those B and C, you should just watch and observe and mark where you think they will go, etc. But only actually trade the A setups. Then as you progress, different ideas can be tested and worked out on demo and put through the same process.
As for R:R of your second question here is a recent post from james that will serve you well
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post2624427
The main idea for most of us is we take what the market gives, and let the charts tell us what that is. For example today on the xxx/jpy pairs. There was a nice bar, but clearly there was an area that HOPING for it to push through was IMO not the way to trade it. Or at least(and this is not to put words in James' mouth) he would never have taken a loss on that trade. EVER EVER. Was it still good for some pips? or a b/e? or maybe a small loss? Sure depends on how you played it. But the KEY is that we KNEW going in where it was likely to stall. Then you make the decsisions on how you want to manage that. That comes with time and experience and how you are as a trader.
Best
Mike
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Mar 26, 2009 4:33am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPP
Thanks for the reply Mike
Still not sure how you would have done anything with this, i thought we should wait for the break as confirmation - we got that and place an entry below the low on the Bar, but that was right on top of the expected support - so should this be a no trade until support has given way and then look for other entry points?
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This is exactly why I personally did nothing with them. I used the reversal bar to lock in profit of a previous trade, got out of the way of the market, and now am in waiting mode. I was instead looking for price to maybe pullback lower then it did and wait for PA. Until that happens I am out and waiting for other trades to show.
Mike
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Mar 26, 2009 4:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
This is a basic illustration. Please feel free to add other important aspects of this example. (Mike, Jim, Bundy, anyone, etc.)
Jim
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Nothing ever needed to add to your posts Jim 
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Mar 26, 2009 11:37am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeev121
My first question is...I seem to spend a great deal of time on each chart setting up the ppz etc...is this normal or am I trying too hard to find the levels...ie should I be only looking for the ones that hit me in the face or at swing highs/lows.
I suppose it will all come down to experience and practice...thanks again to you all...here's looking forward to a great learning experience and a lifetime of profitable trading. 
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Hey Jeev welcome to the thread
PPZ come in both major and minor ones. The major ones after a very short time will simply jump off the screen. Much like a beautiful pinbar will. The minor ones, and the potential trouble areas that can effect a trade tend to be a bit more difficult to spot and take more practice. The best advice I have for drawing them is to zoom out on your charts. If you ever have a question about a PPZ post up a chart and we will check it out
Take care
Mike
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Mar 26, 2009 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeev121
Thanks Mike
I'm posting my eur/usd daily chart...the thin purple lines are my daily ppz areas whilst the shorter orange horizontal lines are my 4hr potential problem zones.
Do you think my intrpretation is ok?...I feel that I may be drawing in too many ppz lines...hence may scare myself out of pulling the trigger on a trade.
Jeev
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This is a big problem, what a lot of people do is have all their PPZs drawn on their chart and then it looks like Grid Paper. Also remember the PPZs are zones(so my interpretation is below). So you got them right just one line often is misleading when interpreting the "area".
I personally only draw the ones relevant. Example say i get into a trade based off of Price action at a PPZ. I would then draw in the relevant minor PPZs that may effect THAT trade. Not every trade to come. I need my charts as clean as possible. For this reason I don't leave every line/blue box on the chart. It is exactly the reason you stated above. Some choose to leave all their lines. Also if I take a daily trade, all my analysis involves the daily. I don't drop down to the 4hr and look for potential trouble areas for my daily trade.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 26, 2009 10:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXGator
I have a question for Jim or anyone else that has a good bit of live experience with Jim's methods....
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Hey Scott
The majority of us ignore news almost completely. Our beliefs lie in the charts telling the story. My opinion is less to clutter the thought process the better. Great bars in great locations rarely don't do what we would expect.
Mike
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Mar 26, 2009 11:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankm7
I saw this as a possible PB. The 38.2 was holding as resistance so I jumped in on the PB's close. However, I jumped in earlier and placed a second sell order when it retraced some. My S/L is in place and my T/P is at the 50 level... It's not looking to great right now. Comments?
Thanks in advance!
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Hey Frank
This is a 4hr bar on an off market time of 4hrs. Thus the bar is very small, nose barely sticks out from all those highs. This is making it in traffic, meaning if it does break down you are fighting a bunch of resistance. With that I highly recommend you wait for the break of the low. This bar never broke the low thus it is not technically valid until that low breaks. Also your fib is drawn wrong. If you are lookign to short your fib should be drawn from high to low. Meaning this one is near the 61.8.
See chart
Hope that helps
Mike
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Mar 28, 2009 12:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Hey Gorubin
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
I have 2 questions for more senior members:
1. I understand the benefits of moving your stop to breakeven and I've been able to do that many times. One problem that I never see addressed here is what if your Pin breaks and gets you in the position while you sleep (say London hours for us in the US) or when you didn't get a chance to move your stop to breakeven. When you wake up you or look at your computer again you are already 50 -100 pips in drawdown. Would it be best to close the position immediately at a loss or letting it go with the original...
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I think that you have to be able to work around this. If you can't be up to watch a trade then you shouldn't trade it. You can set sound alarms for when it hits an area to wake you up, move stop to b/e then go back to bed. Or depending on your broker and programming have an EA move your stop to b/e when it hits a certain level, I am sure I have seen these written for MT4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
2. What is the proper definition of an Outside Bar. Is it only the Body of the candle that should cover the Body of the previous candle excluding the wicks? Or do you care about the whole candle with wicks covering the previous candle with its wicks? I'm only asking because I've seen both used.
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An outside bar is one that englufs the previous bar. So that means the high must be higher then the previous bar and the low must be lower then the previous bar. When we look for a BEOB we are looking for a higher high and lower low, and then the CLOSE to be near the lower part of the bar. I prefer a lower close then the previous bars low as well.
Take care
Mike
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Mar 29, 2009 6:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
LOL.
i always get a kick out of these.
ive been studying candles since they became "popular"
they tell the same story as bar charts and much more confusing visually.
there ARE NO differences between them.
anyone that tells you differently are generally the same people that have a chart so filled with crap you cant even see price.
no offense to you chart but thats how it is.
the only difference between a candle and a bar is how they look.
jim
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LOL yep I bit my tongue on that post
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Mar 29, 2009 7:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
how about dot on close?
ive been playing with this one for a long time. lol
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is that the big dipper
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Mar 29, 2009 10:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by User Name
Just a quick question for Jim or anyone else, where would be the correct place to start the fibo, point A or B to C ?
Thanks,
Andrew
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Hey Andrew
The only points I would use would be points B to C. Of course if C is not a bottom you would have to keep moving it. These would be the clearest of swing points
Best
Mike
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Mar 29, 2009 10:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Hey everyone, I wanted to post a follow up chart to the Eur/Aud 4hr pin from last week. This trade has brought up some good questions for me that maybe some of you seniors can help with.
After entering price reached the first area we watch then came back exactly to BE. Then it ran to the next area and came back again only this time it took BE out by a few pips. Now, we can see price has moved below the recent lows and I hope it stays.
Here's the question. I had alerts set and it was fairly quick and easy to stay in this trade without getting out...
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I personally keep logs of multiple exit methods for this reason. I know how I am comfortable trading my size account now, but don't want the day to come when my account is 10 times the size and I feel differently. So example
This month I am up ~9% trading my methods. I also keep track of how I would end up if I move my stop to b/e and or take profit at the first "area of interest" so to speak. This would put me at ~4% instead. I do this simply to track and prepare for what might come down the road. One thing for me is the gradual increase in my position sizes as my account grows rather then going from a small account to huge account.
Best
Mike
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Mar 29, 2009 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joebryce
Thanks Mike, Correct me if I'm wrong. I know and am familiar with the several ways that you manage your stops... so does "your method" include the discernment involved in deciding which to use for each trade? and then you compare that with different rigid and consistent methods which leave out the discernment?
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There is discretion in both ways. Currently I use a variety of stop management/trade management. Then I keep a running tab of a more James`esque way of doing it which is still discretion in understanding the material. I am simply trying to stay ahead of the curve so to speak. Oh and the previous stats are still with risk kept the same. But with a method that has a higher hit rate one can up their risk(I am talking reasonable here), based on that. I had zero losing trades with the 4% gain. The point is the material can really be made to work in many different ways. Finding your comfort zone is a big deal and then having confidence to trade it day in and day out just comes with time as bundy said
Best
Mike
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Mar 29, 2009 11:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Good grief. lol  have another pint on me bundy. 
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lol too funny man
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Mar 30, 2009 6:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by av_fx
I feel that the key aspect of this trading style is ?SPACE?. When there is a ?SPACE? along with a PA bar setup the trade runs for you like a race. When there are resistance / support / Bar low and high areas around your entry point you probably need to ask yourself why I am giving away my hard earned money to the market? In these cases even the most beautifully looking bar has a very good chance to fail...
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Perfect and glad I could help in any small way
Trading is situational, no doubt about it. But there are such clear re-occurring patterns and circumstances, that happen over and over. It takes awhile to learn it, and then apply it without trying to do too much. But if I could reiterate one thing, it is that keep it as SIMPLE as possible. It sounds so cliche and some people read it and probably want to throw up, but it is what I consider the golden key(holy grail makes me want to puke). There are key concepts, that you can learn, then put together, and then it becomes "easy". Learn how to clearly identify the key areas of support and resistance, learn how to identify a HEALTHY bar versus a so-so bar. Learn how to identify confluence that is clear and not curve-fitted to get you into every trade. Learn to be picky, and practice the hell out of it. It doesn't happen over night, but I truly believe anyone who works hard enough at it, and checks their ego at the door can succeed.
Lots of new faces and it's awesome and James should be very proud of how many lives he has changed for the better, including my own. I get emails everyday now of people praising what Jim has done and I know it puts a huge smile on his face and certainly mine
Trade smart!
Mike
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Mar 30, 2009 7:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus
Is Mike really true a playa? lol It seems that Mike always been associated with women since this thread started. Wonder why..Mike must also be picky in this stuff 
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that's my night job
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Mar 30, 2009 7:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by av_fx
Hi Mike!
Thanks for your reply. I was reading this thread for a while and trying to assimilate the concepts.
So are you suggesting that if high probability set ups/patterns happen at not so key resistance /support areas taking them can be less risky?
thanks for your reply
Bundy i liked your analogy too 
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To me a high probability setup is taking all the pieces into account. Do I only take huge pins at resistance or support? No, I will trade a beautiful huge pin at a clear swing point in space all the time. Are they more rare? Yes. but they happen and we just have to wait for them. Will I trade a pin, in some traffic but off a perfect area that I was watching for weeks/months to hit? You betcha.
What I am really getting at is this, and actually clockworks post above is a key example.
As traders, we feel the need to trade. Trading should be to make money only. Maybe the name trader is misleading and gets in our head.
ex.
The gbp/usd daily bar is showing a pin. Now are there reasons that this trade may work. You bet ya. Will it probably go to a designated marked area that we could pick out with our knowledge of s/r. Yes again. But is it worth putting 1-2% of your account at risk for this trade. IMO, not a chance. I see the most posts that look something like(and I have done it and still get caught so I am not singling anyone out).
"what do you guys think of this. Pin(nose could be bigger), close is a bit off, but the location seems ok."
You get the idea and know the posts. When you have to do that stuff, STOP close that chart and move on. Because you know what the better ones will not have so many ifs/ands/buts about them.
What I try to stress is understand what locations make for better trades. How to identify clear swing points. How to identify s/r and problem areas. How to find GOOD confluence and not try to curve fit a fib retracment and take any old PA off any point on it. Of course we have to learn these concepts and usually it is through trading the types of situations I fake quoted above. I understand that, and it is OK. Cause we learn like that. It is when we stop trying to learn to get past that, that we get stuck. From my experience chatting with many traders, and at this point it is a ton. I see the curve go something like(and this is very very much a basic idea to get a point across):
This timeline starts after one gets passed the complete BS of thinking they can turn 50-100% roi a week/month, and trying to find some hidden secret in a new hot indicator. I am talking bout those that take this serious.
A few months of just reading and feeling lost.
3-5 months of learning to understand the material. Demoing, losing etc. But seeing some light.
If they stay stubborn, they could stay on the same road for another few months to years, till things get more clear. Again the timeline is different for all.
Then they hit a point where things click, they begin to have aha moments clean their charts up get more picky, but still can't get over the hump. They are still over trading, or trying to hard to be a hero. They are around breakeven.
THe b/e stage of a trader is both good and bad. It is good, b/c IMO and my experiences you are REALLY close. I mean real close to making it work. It sucks, b/c it can last a long time. There is something in there that just needs to be slightly fixed to get over the hump. From my experiences again it is just tidying up their analysis, taking the more obvious trades. I have literally talked to a lot of traders that now post and are succesful that just could not get over the hump and it seemed it was just themselves standing in the way for the finish line. But if it takes a few years to get this right isn't that trade off well worth it.
Man I don't even know where I was going with all that but when my rambles come out I can't stop em
Mike
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Mar 30, 2009 8:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover
I noticed on some of your charts that you have "....time left till bar close" below the currency pair (upper left)
How do I get that to show up on metatrader?
Thanks in advance
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place this indicator in your MT4 folder -> Experts -> Indicators folder
Mike
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Mar 31, 2009 11:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPP
Wassup Mike, like the new wheels was this another drive by pip hunt.
Attachment 226360
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HAHAHA thanks for the laugh
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Mar 31, 2009 11:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipslapped
I have noticed quite a few people on here say they use more than one feed for their charts. Is that so you can get a better idea what the market is doing and maybe not miss a nice pin bar that one broker may show you but another doesn't?
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Hey Pip
A lot of people will watch a couple feeds to see the aggregation of the bars different. For example 2 different daily feeds, or 4hour feeds. Price is never changing but the way the bars are aggregated dude to the time close will look different giving some different views. I like to stick mostly to one, sometimes looking over at another if I really like an area. Up to you, I think it is easier to just stick to the one you are comfortable with
Best
Mike
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Mar 31, 2009 3:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags
Good stuff Bertie.
I think going through this material more than once is key. Sometimes it takes a while to sink in.
It reminds me of my recent vacation. Before I left I felt like I needed some quality reading to rejuvinate me, so I printed out all kinds of J16 material. Old stuff, new stuff, whatever. (and when I say old I mean stuff from like page 1)
So there I was on the beach in Cuba enjoying the sunshine, warmth, beautiful ocean while looking at pin bars and BEOVBs. 
People had their hardcover novels, and I was there struggling with stapled...
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Nice Tom
hope the baby is keeping you busy
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Apr 1, 2009 3:27am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs
the retrace pin forming after test of the neckline.
boy if Mike misses this, he'll be pissed 
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hehe it was my little brothers 21st bday today and he had just came home from Barcelona so I went out to celebrate with him. I see this gave some pips. Although I wouldn't have taken it being so late in the day, but the setup was a pretty clean looking one.
were headed back towards my favorite areas 
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Apr 1, 2009 1:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I think the PB traders on a weekly chart account for a tiny percentage of the overall market. Think of all the intradays traders etc.
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The reality of this market it is SOOOOO BIG and so diverse in its use from its primary use for business to transact on, to the growing speculation of currencies. You have many models/methods/etc. Our job as technicians are to follow the footprints and spot the bigger footprints. People are always buying and selling for their own reasons. If more people are going to sell b/c of what we call a pinbar, all the better for us.
If you want some more reading material, search the name Darkstar, and read every single one of his posts. It will help give you a deeper understanding for what we trade in terms of the microstructure of this market
Mike
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Apr 1, 2009 6:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27
Hello Alter,
I see where you came from on this trade.Look at the area you were trading into though.It had no room to run.You were aiming for the bar highs....but don't forget about the bar lows.
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This post is so simple with just one line and a few blue boxes that tell a huge story and something that happens over and over though. You all could learn a boat load from just that one chart on what to look out for. Nice post Jlmac(JMACK if I may  )
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Apr 1, 2009 6:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanUK
Hi guys,
I'm glad you're discussing the U/C possibility as I've been staring at the screen for the last couple of hours considering what to do!
It looks like a fairly good pin to me at a a good level of resistance - I'm thinking first obstacle at about 1.2500 and if it makes it through the next area of concern should be around 1.2400.
Any other thoughts on this?
Regards,
Dan
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I just thought I would throw out my view on this one as I got a bunch of emails about this one.
Is the bar a real nice BAR. Yes nice shape, good open close, nice long nose.
Is the location ideal enough to trade? Sure maybe. Is it worth it to me. Nope.
Onto the whys, and where it might still visit. Is it off some resistance yes you can see it is. But the usd/cad has been wedging up(see chart 1). This indicates consolidating market, which they do most of the time. Now the more this thing consolidates into that wedge, the more choppy price will move(because things are tightening up). Another way too look at this is lack of space. Or trading into a strong arae.
On my chart you can see the 1.25 is a heavy area of interest, or a PPZ. So you are trading directly INTO a large area. So what does this mean? IMO it means if you decide after all this it is still worth trading, that your stop loss gets to b/e ASAP. You don't get fance, you respect what is under you and understand if it does move down lower to this area(which is a zone I tried to mark from the bar highs with the arrrows, all the way down to the 1.25 big round number itself), that it CAN/WILL/MIGHT bounce at anytime within this "zone". So you move your stops, you take your profit, you do something to respect that zone.
Just thought I would make a post to help with my emails :P
Best
Mike
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Apr 1, 2009 8:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpa0827
PB on the daily charts of the USA/CAD in case it isn't known already.
First post here. I've been following this thread for a few weeks and really like it here.James16 and Jacko's thread are the best here at FF in my opinion.
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Hey Jim glad to see you jump in and post here welcome
I posted my thoughts on the usd/cad over here if you are interested
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post2645321
Take care
Mike
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Apr 1, 2009 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
You can go 'Live' with less. And build your account.
But you can see when the sums are done, that $200000 is actually a starter amount, where you aren't buying Ferraris and cool fishing boats for the weekends or supporting a large family comfortably.
I like your $500,000 minimum, but you can trade as a side line to your normal job with $50000 comfortably.
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bundy is giving the cold hard facts. Most just don't want to hear it because it shatters the fantasy that is "forex riches" from your 10k account(well this thread isn't to feed BS, it is to prevent that). Can you build that account in the meantime and add to it, so that when you can trade profitably you make some money along the way. Of course this is exactly what I am doing, consistent profits, confidence, and building. But those that live in the US (at least where I am from) and need to double their accounts every year just to keep their head above wonder, is crazy if you ask me. 50k for a single guy will barely keep your head above water, let alone those of you with families. So if you have a 50k account and need to double that just to live. Man is that pressure. when trading is about taking optimal setups that fit your criteria/plan, and letting the results play out. Be it 2% one month or 10% the next.
Get good at this, and the only thing stopping you is getting the account to the size you need. What's wrong with having your normal day job and then trading a medium size account to supplement that income, or just grow it on the side so that one day it will be big enough if you decide to trade full time.
This is why James said this is going to open a can of worms. I get emails every week about people asking me what are reasonable expectations PER MONTH. Nearly impossible questions to answer. I am up around 17% this year and I am very pleased with it. Some would be happy for that for the year on their super huge accounts. Others would be frustrated and taking enormous risks to make that 170%. How do I see it. As my account size grows, my risk per trade is going to decrease decreasing my max drawdowns as well as my overall ROI for the year. But a small % gain on a huge account is where it is AT! Less trades, more money. Beautiful thing that James talks about.
I just cringe when I hear people who are trying to reach weekly goals of 5%, 10%, 15%. Not b/c I don't remember having those same thoughts. But b/c if you don't leave that behind, you aren't going to be around long enough to reap the benefits of what trading can give you.
This is one of , if not the only threads on FF that I can still rant on and feel comfortable to do so
Mike
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Apr 2, 2009 12:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus
imho, these are pair that I watched that are in area of interest. I'll will wait for PA to tip me where to go.
Do most all the areas are good? imho not all since there are some in traffic but we use our own discretion taught by J16 to filter. jmho.
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let the market come to you, like it arcus 
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Apr 2, 2009 12:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I'm still in Cad on the 2nd half. My 1st half was 32 pips. I have mentioned in an earlier post that I will give a little more leeway to an "A" category trade on the 2nd half. The key being, it's on the 2nd half.
So I moved my stop loss on the 2nd half 22 pips above my entry. To many times Price will retrace and test the break and then continue on.
I've done the same with the Eur/Gbp.
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Nice Jim! So lets see, do we break out of the bigger wedge, gas prices go back up to 4$ a gallon and dow goes back to 10k 
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Apr 2, 2009 3:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I can so relate to this. It's probably one of my big hurdles. Rather than playing a bar on its merits I look to see what the seniors make of it. I forget that what they think of a bar is only part of the whole picture. For example, mbqb11 likes to move his stops at the end of the day. He doesn't day trade off a daily chart so much. That's more Jim. So mbqb11 is looking for more potential to remove. James16 and Jaroo are more day traders off the daily chart. They take some profit off the table at first target.
Everyone evaluates a bar based on how...
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Yeah you can make this material work in MANY different ways. That is really the true beauty of understanding price. B/C personality can be a big problem for others. Trying to be something they are not. I take very few daily/weekly trades. When I do they usually are the best of the best, at least in my eyes. I then have my intraday trading off the 1hr and 4hr charts. I am still very picky mostly in regards to location and that is where I do my "day-trading" so to speak and makes up the majority in trader number terms. It is my interpretation of the material presented by James in combo with what I have picked up.
But one thing remains the same, no matter what. The concepts. Support/resistance, ppz, confluence, bar analysis, etc etc.
If you can learn to put them all together, nothing to stop you 
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Apr 2, 2009 3:52pm
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I don't post my trades from intraday much here b/c I believe it is not the right place in terms of what we are trying to accomplish of learning the core components.
But the concepts are all there and that is what is crucial and what I want to show with a recent trade.
We have heavy consolidation, price is looking to breakout(wedge). We then have a retest of the PPZ/Consolidation(BIG BLUE BOX). This is the LOW of our BIG HUGE BUOB, that then closes outside the wedge, and also above the BIG round number of 1.65. So where is it going to go using what we know. First high(so I move stop to b/e). Then my next goal is that next high where I trail my position out after the sharp move up.
All the concepts are the same, just put together in a way that is comfortable and in control for me.
James is the man
Mike
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Apr 2, 2009 6:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oltciter
NZDUSD daily chart!
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Welcome
I would call that more of a neutral bar, since the open and close are near the middle of the bar(meaning we have similar length tails from each end). Showing more indecision. Granted you did mark off where this would prob stall out if it did break lower. But I think we can get our money in better then that
Best
Mike
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Apr 2, 2009 6:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
off to softball.
another season starts tonight.
i pitch and bat 4.
im the oldest guy on the team and i can still hang with the pups. ( notice i didnt say i could run with them)
its one of the great joys of my life to out hit 20 year olds.
when your almost 49 and you can say that you will want to brag also.
years are running out on me so im not holding anything back at this point.

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softball team named the Yankees? 
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Apr 2, 2009 6:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oltciter
Thank you for advices! Sorry for my English!
I?m watching this thread for a long time!
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Your English is great don't apologize. I am blown away about all you guys/gals who English is not your native language and you speak/write great. I took like 8 years of french and can't speak a word of it let alone learn a business in another language
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Apr 3, 2009 12:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Hi, mike, pardon me to jump in your topic if I may. in the end of this post, you mentioned support/resistance, ppz...... it seems you differentiate these two concepts, what could be the difference between support/resistance and ppz? I am working hard to build up my awareness reading these components, so, please help me to see the subtlity.
what my current understanding about support/resistance and ppz is that they seem the same stuff, ppz is the flip of support and resistance across the time series. probably I missed something in between? hope...
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Nope you got it Krue. Sometimes you have just support, or just resistance, and the PPZ is the flip b/w the two
Mike
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Apr 3, 2009 2:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
bloody young snappers & their new skills... 
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if I wasn't getting sick it would be faster 
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Apr 3, 2009 2:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
This helps, mike, after having the concept of ppz, I normally ignored just support or resistance, this igorance could lead to big mistake, I think, or probably the thing I declined to see. I feel pretty nervous about anything I couldn't see for the moment. but, I am very confident with your help, jm and other member, I am determined to breakthough, this has to be done. thank you, mike.
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Glad to see you are so determined Krue. That is one of the characteristics you must have to make it all work. Just follow James16 and you can't go wrong
Mike
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Apr 3, 2009 2:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
not the flu again 
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It goes from 65 one day, to 20 degrees the next
i'm loading up on vitamins!
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Apr 3, 2009 2:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
c'mon Mikey, spring is in the air... you New Yorkers should be startin to get out & get frisky. eh?? 
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lol I think that is what caused it having a few too many drinks on tuesday night when I felt it coming on. 
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Apr 3, 2009 9:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by layton
Hello Everyone,
I was wondering if anyone has any charts explaining PA with MACD divergence. That appears to be one of my weak points at the moment.
Thanks all...
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Hey Layton
Here is a more recent example of a really solid trade using Divergence as a tool.
We have a triple top and a pinbar(arrow). Now notice how price is not moving down but higher, or staying at the same level. While MACD is continuing to move lower. So price is going one way, and MACD is moving another way or diverging. This differing in opinion b/w price and the oscillator(macd), is divergence.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 3, 2009 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebar
Hi All,
Have read the first 100 pages or so of this thread and have checked out the PF. The help and advise given on here is incredible - you should all be very proud. I am seriously considering joining the PF. I have been trading for a few months spread betting UK equities but came across this thread via the T2W site. Being used to spread betting I am struggling with the concept of position / lot sizes and $ per pip. I'm sure this is simple and I'm probably making it more complicated than it needs to be - can anyone enlighten me using a (very)...
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Hey Leebar
Welcome glad you are enjoying this thread, spend some time here it will only help
Calculating your position size is real easy
Say your account size is $10,000 and you want to risk 1% per trade. Now no matter what size your stop is your position size chagnes based on the size of your stop
Example you want to enter a pinbar that has a 100 pip stop. So you want to risk 1% which equals $100 per trade. That means you can have a position size of 10,000 units(which equals 1$ per point).
Now say you want to take a trade that has a 200 point stop. You are still risking 1% or 100$ per trade, but now you can only have a max position size of 5,000 units (or 50cents per pip).
That's really all there is too it here is another resource for you
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=position+size
start with post 18
Best
Mike
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Apr 3, 2009 11:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p
I've seen a lot of newbies enter this thread lately. We need a post like this every day to pound this into their heads. 
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great post couldn't agree more,
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Apr 4, 2009 7:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose
I'm still learning, but I like this chart (never look at it before)....
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Of course just my conservative take, but this pair has been choppy for awhile now which means bouncing is not unlikely. So with a pair that is as volatile as gbp/cad can be plus a generally higher spread. You gotta be careful trading into the area you are. Also this second bar is NOT a pin(has a higher low and a lower low), so it is more of a beraish outside bar with a bad close). I never try to talk people in or out of a trade, just giving it from my viewpoint. Summary = get stop to b/e asap if you do venture into one that looks like this. I would never trade a situation like this personally.
Hope you all are having a good weekend
Mike
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Apr 5, 2009 12:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jellybean
Wow & Thanks Tia
I didn't expect response so quickly. I usually have to wait for America to wake up, but I see you're in the UK - having breakfast when I'm about to crash.
Anyway, I'm going to print out your post and set it next to my PC. I appreciate your advice about back testing and I'll look at the programs you mentioned during the week. I'm on holiday the week after so the timing's good.
Actually, my problem with my real account was staying out. I was always worried I'd miss a good move. If I wasn't in I wasn't going to make money, right?...
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Aaron gave you great advice. If you are doubting yourself, it is usually because you have no real trading plan. Instead you are opening the charts and just sort of "feeling it out" as you go. The people I know that are trading and trading successfully, have a method/plan that they follow. They are looking for generally the same things, or are comfortable with certain things. So it doesn't matter at all what anyone else says, b/c they know what works for them and they look for that. This is why one HAS to go through those steps James lays out. You have to demo trade the process of learning the concepts put forth here. Once you have 3 months of that successfully, you will know things that work and don't and now you have the "start" of a potential method/plan that you can now trade into the future. Otherwise one gets stuck in the limbo. You can even trade and make money, but have ZERO confidence in what you trade. I can remember this part of my trading. It was extremely frustrating. After I won, it was the feeling of "was that just luck". And I mean this lasted months. I finally realized it that I knew what I was doing, but my trading rules weren't concrete enough for me. I needed more structure. Structure means different things to different people.
I just thought I would throw that out there
Best
Mike
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Apr 5, 2009 12:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanook438
Hey group-
I see a pin bar on the EURGBP H-4 poking down through a 50% fib from a higher time frame. (See chart if it attached correctly.)
Enter long @.9103
SL= .9065
1/2 out @ first S/R level of .9165
Daily & weekly trend looks down so this would be a counter trend trade and short lived.
Any thoughts/ comments / what did I miss so far?
TIA
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Hey Tia
Careful here, that isn't a pin that is a neutral bar. When the open and close are near the middle of the bar(you can tell when you have noses of equal length sticking out also). That shows indecision and can often be mistaken for a pin.
-Mike
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Apr 5, 2009 12:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanook438
Hey Mike-
Thanks for the heads up. Trying to work on the j16 method.
(TIA meant "thanks in advance" not to be confused with Tia in the above posts)
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haha sorry about that 
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Apr 5, 2009 10:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackinc
See, you're going to get different answers from different people. Some people considered that set up fully tradeable, others passed on it quite easy.
Unfortunately YOU have to work out if that trade was good or not. So my advice is to decide on how you'd like to exit this trade, whether by your current method, or based on your S/R analysis. Then appreciate the great run and then continue to practice, practice, practice.
I understand your psychology with your post.
And a nice post from someone senior expressing what a great trade that was will...
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Yep very well said.
I could give you 10 reasons both ways. Important is, did it fit into your personal criteria. Granted I see you are new to this so that is part of the DEMOing process, and learning the material. For your first week on this thread that is far better then most would choose and if you carry a conservative approach forward it will take you far. Stick to demoing and how James has laid out and it is just time and persistence
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 12:25am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Sorry I can't post charts right now. Can you post a Daily Gbp/Usd?
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here ya go
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Apr 6, 2009 12:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Probably the 4500 would be stronger, if this is a new uptrend change.
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Sorry Jim, you know me and my round number fetish
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Apr 6, 2009 5:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
OK I've decided. I'm gonna leave my stop tight and what will be will be. Here's why.
Since becoming disabled in Nov. 07 I'm trading for my families life.
With only a 10K account to start with this win is a BIG win!
If I get only one more trade (or a combination) like this, this month, it puts me 1-1/2 months ahead on bills and adds a touch to my account.
NEVER let a winner become a looser.
And it would appear the dollar is at least a "little" weak against the other majors so maybe it will stay that way. (This last one doesn't mean too...
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Oh man, this post scares the hell out of me. I am very sorry to hear about your recent disability. The trading for your families life with a 10k account really made me worried here
But please, please please please read this post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25755
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25734
We always shoot you guys/gals the straight truth on this thread, and doing anything less would just not be right.
Take care
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 5:36am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shermenator
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careful here this one isn't technically a pinbar. Then open and close must both be within the prior bar. This bar is very small too. Zoom your charts out one, and after such a strong move up the signs of a move down are usually tipped with some stronger price action
BEst
MIke
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Apr 6, 2009 10:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shermenator
I see ...would this be a trade you would have taken with a smaller risk or simply steped aside and waited for a better bar...thanks Gus
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Hey gus
After steep runs I find the pair that gives the tip off with the strongest PA. Also I would have liked us to get a bit higher as well. I am very picky as I move to the 4hr and 1hr
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 10:52am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Question regarding setups. Would you consider a PA bar straddling one or two ema's as a good setup? Obviously if it had room to move to the next PZ? I know we prefer these to be on or next to PZ's.
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Some people use MAs+PA alone. Example a pinbar of the first time back to say the 365 MA.
Could you post a chart showing more what you mean
Thanks
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 11:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags
I just don't wanna see good people lose their money for no good reason.
Take care,
Tom
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well said Tom. I can relate to you Chris, my mom has been through 3 major back surgeries now and can barely get out of bed some days.
Unfortunately you are climbing a huge hill, but that hill will be 10k less 99.9% of the time trying to do what you are doing. As long as you know we are all looking out for you here
Feel better Chris, and we are all here to help
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 11:08am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
When drawing fibs, is it best to draw them on the very last swing high/low or just sort of "adjust" them around until they best fit the the PPZ's in front of them?
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IMO it is ALWAYS best to use the most CLEAR swing high and low points. This is where they are the most effective. Now like PPZs, you have both major and minor swing points. But sometimes I see people draw fibs very very curve fitted to a chart(much like trendlines), in order to convince or talk themselves into a So-So trade. IMO if you can stick to the obvious everything(bars, ppzs, fibs, support/resistance) etc, your road to success will speed up enornomously
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 11:22am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
Hi Mike,
For instance, On this GBP/JPY Daily & 4H. Where I have this fib drawn it would seem that it hit the 50 rather nicely and turned (so far) but I'm wondering if my placement of the fib is accurate. Now I anchored the bottom on the daily and moved the top to various highs until it "looked" like it matched PA pretty well. So is this 50% level accurate as you would see it or would you have drawn this fib differently?
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Yeah If you find yourself "moving" the fib levels till they line up to make something work, that is a slippery slope. Trust me there.
Here is one of the obvious and main fib points
I also drew blue boxes at less major swing high points. IMO these are not worth using because of how small these swing highs are(you can see this when zoomed out). Now does that mean you can't use them. Of course not. I can't tell anyone that. I just think sticking to the obvious ones is not only the best, but the easiest. Simple always wins in my book.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 11:32am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
I've now completed backtesting to practice trade....
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Seriously Josh, if anyone is treating this like a business and taking the proper steps it is you. You aren't there yet, but you will be, and you are a great role model for new traders and a lot of OLD ones too!
Hats off to you sir(and it is my yankees cap too for opening day and I wouldn't take that off to almost anyone today)
James will love that last line
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 3:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I agree, the results that jd posted all agree with what Jim et al have been saying. Someone might say why backtest just trust what Jim etc are saying, howeve the backtesting I have done is reinforcing and building my confidence in my system. It's so useful especially as we are trading in longer TFs, where it could take a few months to get decent amount of trades.
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bingo! Don't ever take anyones word for it. Test the hell out of it, and do EXACTLY that. You will become a better and more confident trader for it. Confidence is huge in trading.
Well said
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 3:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
please allow me this. i know some hate it when i do this but i mean no harm.
this is not my thread this is our thread and i try to keep that in mind.
i just sat with tears streaming down my nearly 50 year old face while the texas rangers had opening day ceremonies.
3 men walked from the dugout to the mound with a huge flag in the oufield.
a navy seal from just down the road that was the only one out of 16 to make it back alive from his unit.
a former president that now lives less than 30 miles from me that is a human being just like the...
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god bless America and god bless baseball
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Apr 6, 2009 4:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy73
Hi all
New to this thread, does this pin on Eur/Gbp look like an A pin bar ?
I know the bar hasn't closed yet but it will in 2 and a half hrs where i am.
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Hey Billy welcome to this massive thread
For me this isn't much of a big deal bar. Notice how small the overall bar is. Small bars = less importance in my book. Now also notice how the nose barely protrudes under the low of the previous bar(ignoring sunday bar). This is also another one of those things I look for. A big nose should protrude away from that prior bar low, really sticking its face out there and jumping out there. What this bar says to me is that we are poking at the PPZ below, but this bar is not enough of a reaction to trade it. A bigger/better bar in this area would give a better tip off for me.
Best
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 7:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188
EDIT: THE GBPJPY - not technically a pinbar, mike i know you were about to call me out on it.. but this area was marked on my charts as a strong weekly ppz and with a bar like that it is a good enough signal for me to enter (think of it as an S&R trade)
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you definitely made me chuckle with that edit
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 8:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankm7
Mike, does it fail the be a PB because of its really tiny nose?
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Hey Frank
What stoli was getting at was the fact that both the open and close were not within the prior bar. The close was higher which means it is not technically a pinbar. I agree location is nice for some move down, but I won't trade it if a bar doesn't fit the criteria, personally
Best
Mike
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Apr 6, 2009 8:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The eyes of Mike are always watching. Which is not a bad thing.
("Would Mike take this setup. . .No" . . . "Mike would like this setup . . . hmm . . . maybe not the Daily PPZ is way over there . ." ) and so on. lol
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that sounds wrong and creepy on so many levels 
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Apr 7, 2009 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hipcio
Overtrading was my problem, I will never come back to it.
Peter
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this tends to be most traders(old and new) main problem
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Apr 7, 2009 12:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
yes, I also realized it after switch to H1 time frames yesterday.. (not daily yet)
the previous scalpings, bounces 5pips, etc now seems no movement at all.
it's just moving between different major S/R now, looking for direction.
oh btw 1 question, if I trade part time in order to beat inflation, what is the weekly target I shall set? 1% or 0.1% of acc?
that means no leverage and look for a good 100 pips move in a week?
previously I cannot trade or keep looking at market if my acc is bouncing up and down by 10% from hour to hour... cannot...
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Hey Bill
Since we are on the path of shattering a lot of trading myths, this is going to be another one. Having a daily/weekly goal is ludacris(and a forex myth). It leads to many many bad habits. Read these few posts and hopefully another light flicks on. The traders I know all look at their trading quarterly. They do NOT set goals they have to meet. They simply give what the market offers their methods. They only know what the avg is because they have a lot of trades under their belt. It sounds like you are trying to trade when you have time and make 1% a day and turn your account to millions quick. That is such a myth of what really takes place. I am not trying to put you down, so I hope you don't take it like that. Rather I want to tell you the truth and reality of what trading is.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25755
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25734
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2009 3:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
Well here's my IBFX Daily. I see what I think is called a (BEOB??) but not a pin? And I was watching these all day yesterday but wasn't sure how to act on what I saw. Looking for those pins. Am I wrong here and maybe need new glasses??...LOL
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Technically that isn't a BEOB either because we ignore the sunday bar(which is the bar before it). So that would just be a big BEB, unless you choose to use the sunday bar then it would be a BEOB(but James ignores them).
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2009 3:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Dailies don't tend to conflict much Chris, The Pin's quite Ok on my Fxpro just like on my fxopen feed.
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dailies can look very very different depending on your broker close time. FXpro is hours earlier then some brokers
Mike
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Apr 7, 2009 3:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy73
Ok so what do u guys think of these potential pin bars ?
Oh and glad i didn't enter long on the Eur/Gbp yesterday !
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careful here billy based on your charts (as is). The first one is a neutral bar(open and close in middle of bar shows indecision). And the second is neutral with more of a BUOB look if it closes high(has a lower low, and higher high then previous bar).
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2009 8:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankm7
I too didn't see the PB on the NZDUSD. I've been demoing with IBFX but apparently they close later than the rest? Do you folks recommend I swich broker? I'm assuming this different close time can affect my daily chart analysis.
Thanks
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Just stick to the broker you are comfortable with. Some days FXpro will have a pin IBFX won't and vice versa. I personally prefer a closer close to NY time. But I really believe in the end it evens out and it comes down to location in the end, which never changes. Just the way price is agreggated on our screen does.
Best
Mike
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Apr 8, 2009 11:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Hi again Krue,
Here is how I understand the 2:
Anticipation:
Simply a gut feeling. But again the gut feeling wasn't a revelation was it? Things like divergence and the overall trend once noticed can be good occupants of a corner of your mind. It's these that then make you "feel" the market is headed in a certain direction. Quite often I get to muster such anticipatory points upon the first look on the pair.
When I looked at the Aud/Chf setup the first thing I noticed was the bullish momentum and the smooth logical uptrend. (rythemic consolidations...
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love that cad/chf chart, never traded that pair but that is a nice one to watch
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Apr 8, 2009 6:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
I've heard the Base system talked about in a few different places. Is this described in a thread, or is it only available in the PF? All I know is it relates to PA the first time it comes back to an EMA. Or at least, that's what I think it is about...
Josh
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james made some good posts here about using MAs
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ght=365&page=2
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Apr 8, 2009 6:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
Especially because it would fall into your FAVORITE zone! I think I'm passing. Just not much room. 1.3350 and then just over 1.34 from lows a few weeks ago.
Josh
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well done josh, I see it the same way, and am passing as well. Better ones will come. But you have marked off where it might have trouble. Trading or not trading it then just comes back to ones game plan
Mike
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Apr 8, 2009 6:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
That's the plan, but there is still that little voice whispering, we're going to revisit 3800 one more time....
damn elves... hiding everywhere ... 
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i hear it too don't worry , unless were all crazy 
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Apr 8, 2009 6:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
to clarify.
I would like the 30 area but i've seen too many trades go by waiting for the perfect entry.
no. I dont use normal risk as I said my prefered entry is lower. but i am willing to risk 0.25% to have a look.
thats what they call it in poker eh Mike...
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limping in to see a flop 
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Apr 8, 2009 9:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasc
Hi everyone,
I'm new around here, just took read through most of this thread. Sure took awhile! There is so much great information. Thanks everyone!
Well I started paper trading and trying to locate some set ups. Here's one I found on the 4H GBP/JPY. It was a DBLHC (8 pips difference) at confluence, with a 50% retracement and a previous triple bar high. I entered 141.75 and got stopped out at 145.80. I could have let it ride for a lot longer but my stop loss was too tight.
Any comments? Willing to hear some positive and negative feedback so...
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Hey Pasc
Welcome to the thread
Few comments for you. Firstly the DBLHC, we want there to be matching lows, this one is too far off for me personally on a 4hr chart(I would look for a 1-2 pip difference at the most personally). The higher the timeframe the more the difference can be.
Now the location was GREAT, based on the PPZ(which is that flop from the former resistance area you have circled turned into support. Just the price action should be cleaner IMO.
Also your fib is drawn wrong. As the way you drew it we would be looking for shorts. So the fib isn't relevant that way in this case. If you draw a fib from the swing high to swing low(meaning the 23.6 is the lowest number and 61.8 towards the top.) That means you are looking for price to retrace and go short at one of those numbers.
The number one best part about that area, was the strong price flip(ppz) that was located there).
keep at it and keep asking questions if you need help
Mike
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Apr 8, 2009 11:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
Hi, All
I am so impressed by your ability identifying so many good setups. I wish could do the same and contribute too. however, I knew there is a very long way for me to catch up, so, learn from you guys first.
I was looking around too, and see if there be something worth a plan. I then found this GBPUSD, on its weekly chart, there was a BUOB cross above the resistance line( I am not good at identifying S/R, so, still not very sure if the line I draw makes sense ), and its daily pin two days ago seems a pullback indicating a valid support....
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Hey krue
Your thought process is definitley valid. BUOB, retraces, look for some PA at a PPZ. Inside bars can be a bit tricky to learn. It certainly is a valid idea. Would I outright play this one, not personally. But again I am very picky so that is just me. SO I would like to see a test of 1.4500 personally.
But again your thought process is defintiley valid
Best
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 9:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
My question is (and again, I'll do more study), is there a difference between the two with regards to time frames? That is, is the 150 more accurate on lower TF and the 365 better on higher ones?
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Like most things, generally the higher the timeframe you move the more accurate something is. But MAs one might just say they are more infrequently hit on the higher timeframes, thus making them more important. Example. The 365 on the 4hr is hit a lot more then the 365 on the daily. So when we approach the First time back to the 365 on the daily, we might tend to take more notice then say price swiveling around it on the 4hr
Just my take
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 10:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marco
I almost took that trade this morning, and I'm happy now I did not...but wouldn't have expected it to fail that hard...I thought 1.65 might be a trouble area, but it really just moved a few pips. Anyone got some good reasons that make this one a "bad trade"? Also anyone here who would have been fast enought to goto breakeven?
Thanks,
Marco
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Hey Marco
Again this is just my view as I am a very conservative trader, but see how small that pin is. The size of that bar compared to previous bars, makes it very unappealing for me. I don't like to be sucked into a trade simply b/c we have a pin at a swing point. So I see just a pin that stalled at a small amount of support, but not really a significant reaction to any significant area. Size of bar can give a lot away for me
Take care
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 10:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benem
I am in this trade....but i was wonderind how would you classify this daily Pin Bar we got today on Nzd/usd ?
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Hey Benem
A pin like that isn't really at a true swing low point. It is more of a small retrace pin that forms. Doesn't mean they aren't playable, but the situation due to its lack of space means there is going to be some form of resistance rather close. All this means if you choose to play it is that you should get your stops to b/e or some off the table IMO. Can't let these turn into losers or they will hold your account back.
So where we are at now could stall this out
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 10:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marco
Hmm yes Mike that's probably what looked "wrong" to me and why I ended up not trading it. Especially the last downbar was HUGE compared to the pin...
Thanks,
Marco
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That "look" that you couldn't quite place your finger on right away, will go a long way for you
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 1:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
We now wait for the pullback, right Mikey? 
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Apr 9, 2009 2:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Looking back at my anaylsis of this pinbar, I see it went exactly as I though it would, the resistance it faced was very strong. It gives confidence that jims, mikes, chris etc teaching is bang on. Dont just take a good PA, look at location and confluence.
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yep bingo, the lack of space and lack of real support makes this a tough trade to get much out of. Even if it went a bit higher your stop would have had to move to b/e fast. Not much playing room.
Location is the name of the game
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Apr 9, 2009 3:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Its nice when you pass on a trade for reasons fundamental to the method and the trade does what you think. This for me is as good as entering a winning trade that turns out the same.... ok its not as good.
Just a question, it looks to me like the best traders can make money out of a trending and ranging market. Do you think a trader can play both, trend line break outs/channel bounces and box/PZ trading?
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absolutely
Price action is universal so to speak. The charts won't lie.
Ex, a Pinbar at a big swing high, that is indicting a reversal of trend
Ex a pinbar, in a ranging market at the bottom of a channel indicating a move into channel
Both may or may not be playable depending on what else is going on. But both can be playable but one just has to take all the different factors into consideration.
Learning to recognize the patterns is the easiest part, it is the putting the components together in a workable format that a trader is then disciplined to trade. I just choose to avoid ranging markets then trade them. Some people thrive in ranging markets with price action.
Mike
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Apr 9, 2009 3:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Thanks Mike,
I admire you as a trader and have viewed many of your webinars as a J16 pf member. I think you and Jim have given so much to new traders its almost criminal when they dont listen or practice what you guys advise. I guess its down to patience, people want to hear they can turn 5k into 50k in 3 months. If they just spent a year learning and practicing they could become a consistent trader who could build a good account in a few years.
Keep up the amazing work, and thanks again.
Mark
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Thanks for the nice comments Mark they are much appreciated 
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Apr 10, 2009 1:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
My take is (and I'm learning here), assuming it actually does develop into a daily pin by days end, it's very short and I see some pretty good support areas right below it that I think would give it some trouble. I personally wouldn't take this one.
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yeah agreed, small and more of a neutral look on your chart
Best
Mike
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Apr 11, 2009 6:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipaholic
Great Forum, looking forward to James16 PF. Just getting up to speed on this first. Looking at the eur/jpy Daily would the last bar be a valid pin bar?
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Hey Pip
That last bar is simply an Inside bar(as it is contained within the prior bars range). It simply has a look of a pinbar, but as the way we look at bars here it is just an inside bar.
Best
Mike
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Apr 12, 2009 11:24am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipaholic
are these mixed signals? Through the eyes of a newbe. I see a possible pin bar on the daily and would you guys call the weekly bar a BEOB if so one senario might be price moving up near the 3300 (target for daily pin bar) then down to around 2900(target for weekly BEOB). Thanks for your input.
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Mixed signals depending on how you look at it. For example say price breaks the pin(that has very litle space to move higher, like the one from a few days ago), that pin then worked out. Then price moves lower breaks the low of the BEOB which is also in traffic and works out. My solution is to keep timeframes independent from each other. Another big plus to waiting for the best setups is you don't really get stuck into situations like this as much where you get frozen by a chart. So IMO the pin is small, and created by a slow holiday and in traffic. And the BEOB is also in traffic and not a true swing high point.
Have a great day
Mike
Last edited by mbqb11, Apr 12, 2009 11:46am
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Apr 12, 2009 11:27pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexngo
Hello fellows,
I am newbie in this forum and have been trying to catch all thing James teaching here though i just go through the page 44 from the start.
Thank you James for your great, this thread and your generation and experience....
Currently i have questions that hope all experienced bros here will make it clear for me
1. What is the signal that you will assume that the pin bar will coming?
2. I am not sure how can i realize and determine the next trend for the DBLHC, DBHLC, BeOVB, BuOVB...i understand its meaning....but don't know how to realize...
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Hey Forexngo,
Welcome to the thread, I think you might be a bit confused in general on what price action is. For example we never assume a pinbar is coming. Instead we are waiting for when one appears, and then interpreting the bar and the situation to determine if it is tradeable. We do this be understanding all of the following patterns you mention in question 2. They are covered many many times once you get through more pages then 44. I know it seems like a monster task but it is the best way to go about learning the material in the proper way.
Here is a post that Josh put together to help localize the process a bit more so check out this post and that should answer many many of your questions in the beginning
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 13, 2009 4:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by digitil
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---
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I'm not getting it. Is it that I'm stoop'd like a wood log, or that it's too obvious for my convoluted mind to understand?
What is a pin bar? A reversal bar with a big spread between the top(bottom) and the open and close? (ugly illustration above).
Can someone post or PM me a nice pin bar example?
Much obliged.
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Hey D
Yeah a pinbar is a reversal bar. The open and close need to be within the previous bar. The open and close should be near the bottom of the bar(if looking to short), and it should have a long nose
Check out these posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19711
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 13, 2009 11:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader john
would this of qualified, even though it didn't have much of a nose if any, but due to the open/close, would someone of taken a short here?
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Hey John
That is not a pinbar, that is just an inside bar. A pinbar must have a nose that protrudes away from the prior bar(the larger the better)
Best
Mike
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Apr 14, 2009 11:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexngo
What is PA, Please!
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PA = Price action 
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Apr 14, 2009 11:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader john
Yes I see, boy those pin bars don't show up too often, are they more common in futures?
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pin bars and other price bars show up plenty trust me  It is simply a matter of skipping on the So-So setups, and waiting for the better setups. A++ setups on daily/weekly for me on forex pairs range in the 2-5 a month. As you drop down in timeframes my trade avg increases, but that shouldn't be done till you can do it on the daily/weekly.
And yes you can watch futures/equities/commods anything that moves
and as always remember, we are trading to make money, not to trade
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Apr 14, 2009 11:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Not a great looking piece of PA by all accounts imho, I see the area that you are getting at though. But for me the 1.15 PPZ here is where it's at for anything USDCHF.
This 1.15 PPZ is the gift that just keeps on giving 
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I think Jig is trying to make me smile 
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Apr 14, 2009 12:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenBarret
Hello,
I'm very new to this thread and I'm looking for some advice. Since all brokers have different H4 bars, how do we deal with this?
I'm attaching two examples of eur/usd at this moment. One is from ibfx, which show a pin and the other one is from LConnection, which doesn't show the pin at all.
As a newbie, my understanding would be like this: The bars on charts are just a way of displaying the PA to us. We know that the PA retraced to 3275 level after bouncing off of the support at 3225 and ibfx shows this to us. LConn doesn't. Therefore...
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Hey Tyler
You are correct, price is in the end price. Our charts are just a viewing box that aggregates that price depending on the broker close on timeframes like the 4hr/daily etc. This is why location is key. If you determine good location first, the PA is simply your trigger. The way most of us just do it, is to stick to the broker you are comfortable with. Some people watch multiple brokers to get a different "view" on the same price.
Take care
Mike
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Apr 14, 2009 5:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXGator
What do some of you experience guys think of this candle that closed at 5 est? Looks like a DHLC to me, with the highs being within 4 pips of each other.
As you can see, it has already broken the low of the candle. What is the best way to play this? wait for a retrace to say 38% of the candle? I obviously missed the break driving home from my JOB.
Just curious what some of you think.
Thanks in advance.
Scott
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Hey Scott
Basically playing on a retrace, or a break is up to the trader. I always wait for the break of the bars. It is something I am comfortable with, it validates the bars. But playing a retrace is fine too, once you get comfortable with that. Some do a combo of both(I believe jarroo does). If you miss the break, or retrace, I wouldn't go chasing a trade personally.
This trade basically has the lows its at now to watch out for, then the next set of bar highs.
Mike
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Apr 15, 2009 9:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shermenator
You would be buying into a well overbought market and location is not great in my opinion....the more price goes up the more buyers run out
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Yep exactly, and this is why I sway from discussing these as continuations in this thread. The good ones will jump out at you. And playing a 1hr pb as a continuation is not the way to go. Stick to the higher timeframes guys, I promise you won't regret following James16 SOUND advice. It is there to help you
Mike
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Apr 15, 2009 12:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXGator
Hey guys, just wanted to get some feed back from some of the pros on here.
I am watching the GBPUSD Daily and it looks like a DLHC could be forming....
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Well you are correct, we want to play these at swing lows. This is how James teaches to play them. They are much trickier to play as continuations. But with that said if you are going to play this as a continuation, then I would prefer to see a close above 1.5 which is the large round number above. If it can't close above this today, playing as a quick continuation would be very aggressive IMO
Mike
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Apr 15, 2009 8:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fudge
Hello traders....
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Hey fudge
There is no set rule of how many times an area needs to be hit. Since you are going to have both major and minor ppzs.
So you can have a small flip area that is hit 3-4 times(and happened within a few days and it is still a PPZ, just a minor one. Then you can have a zone that goes back years and years, and is much wider in its zone and is considered a major PPZ.
So I always tell people to zoom their charts out a decent amount to get a good idea of the zones, the importance of a zone etc.
Example below. You can see we have a HUGE ppz(and the more major a PPZ the bigger the zone tends to be remember they are zones). That is the big blue box
Then you can see my small blue boxes are also flips in support and resistance but obviously more minor zones
This phenomenon is occurring all the times on smaller timeframes to the larger timeframes. To important and then less important ones. It is not something you set in stone. It is a look and a feel and will become second nature after practice
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 9:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneeule
Hi,
this one was a a+ pin I cought few hours ago.
I am looking for 1.475 if it gets there.
This thread is gold.
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off the big 1.5 number beautiful 
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Apr 16, 2009 9:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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eur/jpy
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Apr 16, 2009 9:24am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980
See you there guys...  
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we will see ya there 
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Apr 16, 2009 9:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPP
different feed different view, not even tradable on mine, plus it looks like the daily is putting in a BEOB on yesterdays Bullish PB.
Attachment 233936
Attachment 233937
i wonder if historically it's possible to prove that a feed with an opening time at +/- of the daily produces better PA trades - taking into account london/NY open and there i'm out for lunch periods that create quiet zones - blah blah blah - enough ramblings
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Looks closer to putting in a BUOB then a BEOB but at this point that means nothing to me(if your feed closed as is that would not be a beob). I trade my plan the rest is up to the market. My post isn't meant as a signal. Just to show a BEOB swing low off a major Support/PPZ and then where it will run into trouble most likely.
It is all about locations for me. If the PA isn't there on my feed then so be it I pass. You could watch feeds that close at different times if you really want to see multiple aggregations in price. But I think for most that would just cause more trading and confusion. It's ok to wait till things line up on whichever broker you use. If the location and thought process is there the trade will take care of itself.
Take care 
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 9:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus
Yeah, I received the email as well. This is not looking good though I rarely use hedging, but I do need it sometime. Did any broker got any notice about it?
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i don't want to start the debate but on regards to hedging PLEASE read merlins posts ONLY in this thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ighlight=hedge
most brokers allow sub accounts if you need to be short and long a currency for a specific reason
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Apr 16, 2009 10:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
Pretty much my thinking as well Mike (what Merlin says). The only thing I could think of for doing it would be if you had a position going against you, place a double size the other way in hopes of getting out flat when they equaled each other...LOL
Sounds like suicide to me either way. I prefer to just take the hit and look for another trade.
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yep that would be account suicide lol
Sorry to de-rail the thread more but since there were those posts I felt my duty to stick that in
If anyone has questions about things like that just shoot me a PM
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 10:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs
yup sorry i know this is off track but i have used this facility many times while playing different timeframes on IG. I was never interested in the hedge but the facility allows you to play multiple timeframes in different directions.
eg I have a weekly trade long off a buob which could be my main position, but then on the hourly i see the sweetest pin to short for a few pips. This hedging facility essentially allows you to take the short without damaging your longer term position.
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yes but this is why most brokers allow sub account and is what I use my sub accounts for, for THESE times. But the hedge by itself is an account killer for all the other reasons. You should find out if sub accounts are available with your broker. Mine are very easy to switch b/w. Just clicking a button on my interface and it is a split second b/w them
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 10:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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i don't want to derail our great PA thread anymore
Going to hop on skype if anyone has questions regarding this or wants to discuss
Back to the charts we go ! :P
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 10:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
Hi Y'all,
Hope the trading is going well....
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way to go bertie I can assure you that if you completed the thread yet again you are taking this very serious. Josh is setting a great example and I am enjoying watching his progress as well
Best
Mike
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Apr 16, 2009 10:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi
how does the AUD/NZD daily pinbar look?
(lots of space to the left, swing high, at 61.8 fib)
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Technically not a pinbar on my chart(close not within prior bar). But might be on some other brokers
Just a chart where it might find trouble if it breaks
Mike
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Apr 17, 2009 12:09am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Marked bars....
10 -...
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BRAVO! 
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Apr 17, 2009 10:33am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
Mike, hope your "day after home-opener" goes better than the opening day did...Were you there?
Josh
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heeh thanks. Opening ceremonies , beautiful , game was not lol
No I was not there I was out playing a round of golf, and came back to that score
Thanks!
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Apr 18, 2009 4:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelufx
Hi James and all the Guys on this thread
This is my first POST and i had to write it here in this thread because this thread just opened my eyes
Few words about me i started with trading stocks about year ago without too much success. About 4 month ago i found FF when i searched on the net for some info.
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]I looked over various threads here with methods and systems but this thread caught...
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I seriously love these posts, cause you can just see the lights coming on
Welcome Michael
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Apr 19, 2009 1:00am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader john
sorry for such a dumb question, but what does "ppz" mean?
I know it's gotta mean price ....something
thanks
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Hey John
Check this out
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...pz#post2334887
Mike
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Apr 20, 2009 10:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aliassmith
I have been thinking about this for awhile. I believe H&S, DHLC, DLHC, IB, and OB etc. at times can all be a PB from a combined timeframe point of view. I think these "patterns" help us identify some underlying PA without really understanding it.
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yep and this is why location trumps everything. PA is simply the reaction of the area that we believe is going to create interest. This is why when we aggregate price via our brokers or combining timeframes we all can see something different. But what happened is the same, just how we see it and then react to it. Be it a BUOB on my broker, and you have a pin on yours etc
Happy Monday
Mike
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Apr 20, 2009 11:42am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags
My problem with this pin: look what has happened from about last Monday (April 13th)
And also the previous bar. And it's a 1H TF.
I would move SL to BE asap. (that's a lot of abbreviations)
You might see a bit of a retrace upwards, but trying to catch a falling knife... you know how that goes.
Tom
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yep this is why starting on the higher timeframes is so extremely important. Catching a falling knife on the hourly with a small pinbar is never worth it IMO. The ones on the hourly are going to be at prime spots, and the PA will be large in comparison to such a huge move down.
Mike
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Apr 20, 2009 2:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gjworley1952
sorry for the ignorance , but what was the key trigger for the g/u trade . any help would be appreciated . thanks
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Hey gj
People were combining two of the daily bars to form a 2-day BEOB.
Check out Jarroo's chart here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=27424
Mike
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Apr 20, 2009 7:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
how about this one? location: swing-low, ascending tl, off of round# weekly ppz's, & looks like apple wanting to be picked. pa: good looking pb, long-nose, closed higher than open. space: next resistance on daily tf ~100-200 pips away. gbp did take a beating across the board today & uk economic data coming out on wed is not going to be good, but maybe good enough to bully the looney around?
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Hey dk
I never try to tell people straight out what they can or can't trade, simply because a lot of that is going to be up to the type of trader. But as long as you recognize the fact of how much this pair is consolidating, and ranging which means that stops should get moved asap, otherwise you can get chopped up on pairs moving like this
Mike
edit* these are situations I like to avoid though personally as a more conservative trader
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Apr 21, 2009 2:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam777
On the chart you marked up a beob. Can a beob also look like this, or is it only where the 2nd bar's H & L totally encompass the first bar?
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yeah the second bar must have a Higher high and a lower low then the previous bar with a close near the bottom portion of the bar.
The bar marked above is just a BEB(bearish bar)
Best
Mike
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Apr 21, 2009 11:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
i attribute this more to the unexpected rate cute by the boc. as a rule i do not trade major news events like these (ie nfp, rate cuts, etc.). i still agree w/ original assessment that this was not a+ due to the location. & in the end i am not going to trade anything less than a+ b/c there are plenty of a+ trades to patiently wait for. that is why i dont have that "i missed out" feeling. i have learned that this is a part of trading. there will always be instances like these. it happened a couple weeks ago on a "b" gpb/usd pin. most of here...
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good for you DK, that will help you a lot. One of the re-occuring themes in emails I get daily are aspiring traders who get that missed out feeling. It not only lasts for awhile after the trade but then effects their thought process into further trades. My answer I wrote about yesterday in someones journal was:
you can never concern yourself over missed pips. Everyday there are tons of so-so setups that give 100s of pips. I can look like Mr. Guru and post a chart on every little PA type of setup that could have worked. But when you are actually in it, trying to make consistent returns, these are the setups that end up destroying all of the hard work(trust me ). The best thing to do with these setups that you pass on, are just watch them, see how price respects our knowledge of s/r and other material covered here. It helps your trading skills. But then don't ever feel upset/frustrated that you missed a trade. I promise you, after awhile you have no concern over missed pips b/c we know the good ones are going to come anyway. Don't let it effect your judgment going forward and you will be way ahead of the game.
Just my 2 cents to help calm any of those inner ghosts
keep at it
Mike
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Apr 21, 2009 11:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rikrok
G'day all,
I've been here in the background, reading the thread since late last year to begin to get up to speed, sorry not to have said introduced myself sooner.
Anyway, after spending some time trading with mixed success, I've now taken the plunge, set aside my live accounts in order to demo on J16's terms (daily PA set ups, like a sniper 3 months of profitable demo before going live) and I have joined the PF.
I hope to post with any occasional set ups I come across from time to time. My time is limited so I will be taking as long as it takes...
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Welcome Rik
Definitely jump in and get involved. This is one place where no one is going to judge you. Or those that do are short lived until we get the mighty twee on them!
Take care
Mike
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Apr 21, 2009 1:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
i got this chart on eur/cad 4h. it is harder to recognize the PB. anyone know why shermenator got the PB in one bar and here it is on two? i use alpari uk.
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That is just a difference in broker closing time. Different brokers have 4hr closings at different times based on their timezone. Price is the same, just how you see it aggregated might be different.
Lots of signals out there, don't go nuts just pick the best ones and use proper MM!

Mike
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Apr 21, 2009 1:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Thats just great, Jigsaw has none of those on his live feed
Mike, where did you get the Elmer Fudd thing from ?
I've always pondered about it. . .
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just me taking "rifle shots" no shotguns here
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Apr 21, 2009 2:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs
Now there's a warning worth heading
ps Mike - Elmer used a shotgun as he was a duck/rabbit hunter  
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LOL I knew someone was gonna say that
Ok I just think hes funny and his persistence is bar none
I also keep a superman emblem on my one screen, and I have two fortune cookie quotes posted to my walls above my computers. I enjoy the little things for motivation 
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Apr 21, 2009 2:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TotalNewbie
I have been waiting patiently for a decent setup on daily for ages and now it seems that 2 have come at once: USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. Are these really separate trades or would I be doubling my risk by taking them both?
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They would be considered correlated trades in my book. When a situation that you get similar trades across the board, I pick the best 1 or 2. Usually just one
But that is just me
Mike
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Apr 21, 2009 5:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
I like the USD/CAD daily pin. It has a long nose bouncing from the 1.25 ppz which is also about the 50% fib from the last swing. Another thing I like about this is that it broke down from a well defined and obvious wedge, and it pulled back to the broken trendline.
The low of my bar is 1.2323, but the ppz at 1.23 looks like it could cause a problem. I'm thinking of either entering below 1.23.
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Nice scott I like your chart as a breakout + pullback play
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 11:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Oh lovely , now it decides to go down
Another victim reporting in
I was trying to get snazzy with a 1HR BEOB (The earlier one, not the one that is just after working lol) . . . Needless to say, -1% 
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LOL
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Apr 22, 2009 11:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
Guys
Did not take UC and EC pins because IMHO they were not A+ setups. Hope the trades work out for anyone who took them. I am patiently awaiting the next A+ setup which comes along.......whenever that may be. Trying to teach myself that trading is about mostly.....waiting.
Good trading to all,
berti
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This is how you get there bertie. You wait, and wait, and wait some more. And when you see others trading something that doesn't fit your plan, you don't flinch.
Keep at it
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I agree with you, imho it was in no mans land, if it was up at 6350 area then it has PZ and 50 fib, it would have been A+ setup. See my chart.
I am only taking daily/weekly trades at the moment you need to be patient and markup all the pairs your broker gives. Im sure we will get A setups once a week min.
What do the guys think, how often do A-A+ setps occur over all the (not exoctic) pairs ?
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Well it depends on how aggressive you are. Some people might trade more, take smaller take profits, get stops to b/e. For example someone that does that will have more daily/weekly trades then me. So I might have 2-5 a month, they might have 10-15.
Saying something is an A or A+ is up to the persons methods. I have different measuring scale and how I go about trading 4hr/1hr then I do daily/weekly. Only cause it is what I have ended up on as being most comfortable.
But the general answer is they are rare enough that if you are making 4-5 trades a day you are going to be over trading(this is in the classical PA sense of a A+ pinbar etc).
Best
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 12:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I agree with you, one of the things that tempts me into lower TFs ie 4 hr is more trading oppurtunites, however I would prefer to stick to daily/weekly as its easier to manage when you are working, and of course everything is more reliable. Is there a way we can access all these other markets through meta traders?
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FXpro offers charting for the most outside forex markets that I know of equities/futures. But only a handful of each, but still nice to keep an eye on if you are in demo phase
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Apr 22, 2009 12:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Looking at it now, offers much more. Why do you say in demo? Would you not use it live?
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I know nothing about their live offerings, and just prefer to stick with bigger name non mt4 brokers. If you have specific broker questions I would rather chat via PM/email
I use them for my charting and trade with other brokers
Best
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 2:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooncricket
Quick question, how does one put the blue "zones" on their charts? I've been using horizontal lines to remind myself of strong PPZ's but I'm curious to see how I like looking at is as a zone.
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You can use the rectangle tool under Insert - Shapes - Rectangle (just change the color properties to whatever you like)
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 6:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron
The other day I asked for some insight about trading non-USD pairs and any additional risk I might be taking on. Unfortunately it got little response. Mike, Bundy, others: do you trade non-USD pairs (with dollar as your home currency)? Just not sure of how dollar action against the minors affects profits of a non-USD pair.
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Hey Caitron
Sorry must have missed your post(just shoot me a PM if I ever miss something).
I trade all the pairs my brokers offer. I do not care what base they are. The only thing one has to know is what 1 pip is equal to , so you can properly position size. The rest is just reading the chart and trading like normal. Each pair will have its own carrying costs which vary broker to broker.
Let me know if you have more questions
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 6:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0
Hi!
Would this be ok?
EURCHF Short, TP 1.5105
Thanks!
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Hey E
Zoomed in like that the pin looks great at first sight. Big nose, perfect in terms of the actual bar. But if we just zoom out a bit, the bigger picture shows that this pin is trading directly into a huge area of interest.
The blue boxes on my chart denote the area that at any time IMO can bounce this. In other words, no space, or sideways market. This is also usually a result of a bar NOT being at a true swing high. One can see how this pin is more towards a swing low which can create all those factors I mentioned. I marked off with horizontals where if it does break price might stall. I used multiple bar lows/highs to denote them and now one gets a more clear picture of the chop that can really hold this one.
Now this isn't to say this isn't a tip off and price goes straight through. But we must always put ourselves in the best position possible.
Just my views
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 7:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron
Thanks to Jigsaw and Mike for your replies. I'm sorry to be so dense on the subject. Mike - how do you know or calculate the value of a pip on a cross currency pair? I know it's $1 or $10 with a USD pair, and I know how to calculate entry size based on risk, but how is it different with the cross pairs?
Thanks again for indulging my ignorance.
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I use a tool that comes with Oanda, called Pip/Profit calculator Makes it really easy
Example
anything
xxx/usd it is 1:1 , meaning 10,000 units will make 1 pip = 1 usd
Now when you start doing non usd based
ex usd/cad - 12,389 units will make 1 pip = 1 usd
aud/jpy 9801 units = 1 pip = 1 usd
so I just use this tool and it solves everything, real quick easy to use. Sure there is the long way to calculate it which you can find if you do a search in this forum. But why not make it easier and use a PIP converter tool(I am sure you can find many just by googling)
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 8:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron
I'll look into it -- thanks.
Plus, I hope I didn't sound presumptuous about expecting your reply. You are always so helpful here. Greatly appreciated.
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not at all! I just try not to miss any :P
Mike
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Apr 22, 2009 10:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipGator
I was looking at my IBFX feed and found a couple of interesting setups.
The USD/CHF has a BEOB near the swing high. It has pierced the PPZ near 1.17, which has proven to be an important level over the past several weeks. It also coincides with a 61.8 fib level on my chart. The way I see it, there may be a minor PPZ near 1.1550. Maybe it would be a good idea to move stop loss to BE near 1.1550 and possibly take profit?
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Hey Pip
One thing I am big on is size of bar. I like a bigger bar that shows some significance in terms of the "action" that took place that day. With that said, your analysis for anyone who believes this is worth trading is very good. If this is a retracement of that larger move down, then 1550 could be the trouble point and certainly the b/e point. Beyond that it is trading into the heavy PPZ at 1500
Just my view
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 3:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gododdin
Hi - I was in the EUR/GBP (based on a retracement of the DBLHC) and moved stop to BE/took half profits yesterday....
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Hey G
To me the 3 consecutive profitable months is not a hard and fast rule. It is what is accomplished during those 3 months. Some might need 4 or 5 to get the confidence and structure to their trading. I wouldn't put an actual number on it. If you are taking wild risks and come out up 60% at the end of 3 months, and another trader is using 1-2% of their account per trade, being very picky but only comes out with 7% at the end of 3 months. I would put my money on the back of trader 2 knowing they were in control and being discipline and stable. So hard to put an exact number on it. More the theory behind what should be taking place over those 3 consecutive months.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 10:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TotalNewbie
Hi Bertie,
I too am a newb at this stuff....
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wow that is awesome discipline so fast !
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Apr 23, 2009 11:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam777
If price comes within 2 pips of my TP and the spread is 5 pips, why didn't my TP close the trade? (IBFX demo - 4h pin on usdcad 2 days ago)
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You buy at the ASK price, so you would need to set your tp accordingly. Which is what your take profit is on a sell(buy order)
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Apr 23, 2009 11:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpa0827
Would anyone here play the USD/CAD short on the retrace to bottom of daily PB. BOC announced they don't plan on dropping interest rates which is why it moved so quick by the way.
Any thoughts on this would be great.
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If you missed the break of the pin, which already gave its pips, don't go chasing another trade. Just wait for another trade to pop up. Oh yeah and ignore that news too
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 11:36am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam777
Thanks Mike
TP is 1.2232
spread = 5 pips
bar low = 1.2235
I always thought that when price is within the spread range of the target it is activated... Now I don't know...
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IF the spread is 5, the the ask is always 5 pts above your bid.
So if the bar low was 1.2235, the ask is 1.2240 which means price(BID) would have had to go to 1.2227, to hit your TP. Then the ask would have been at 1.2232 which is your take profit level.
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 12:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam777
So I need to place my TP at least the the spread above my PPZ when shorting (TP=PPZ+spread). Thanks Mike.
...p.s. does that mean that when someone uses a sell stop 10 pips bellow the low of the bar, you count down 10pips then then count back up for the spread? (SELL STOP=bar low-10pip+spread)
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If you are short, you place your take profit 5 pts above the price you actually want to take profit on (if spread = 5). When you sell you sell at the BID, so it is actually the price on your screen. If you want to sell at 1.3500, you just place your sell at 1.3500, the spread is added back in on the buy.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 12:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasforEX
Hey James Traders,
I'm still stinging from last night. I was feeling great about shorting the gbp/jpy and then it reversed on me. I'm trying to critique my trade. I saw a five wave triangle complete (continuation pattern) and break to the downside. The apex came it around 142. The following 4 HR bar was a BEOB. (bearish engulfing). Then whammo it reversed for about 200 pips. Comments welcome about about clues (if any) I missed.
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Hey Tex
Not sure about the 5 wave apex stuff. But that BEOB was at a swing low, and we want to trade them at swing highs. Also note the low of the BEOB never broke, so it is not a valid BEOB until the low is breached. It is best to wait for these at swing highs and look for the big obvious bars.
Below would be a better zone to look for a short as we retrace back to a PPZ and big round number at a swing high.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 23, 2009 12:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpa0827
You got it Mike. Paying attention to news is just a pain in the you know what anyway.
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yeah only watch CNBC for comedic relief too 
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Apr 23, 2009 12:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasforEX
Yeah Mike,
That does help sir. So, to clarify a BEOB, It doesn't officially count as a "BEOB" until the engulfing bars low is broken by the following bar? 
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Well depending on how you trade it. For me I like to see the next bar break the low(ie momentum). Others will leave a pending order until that low is broken OR the high is broken(which nullifies the bar and then they will cancel their order).
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 10:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpa0827
Great Post Jarroo! This is going into my notes. Just a quick question for anyone out there. When you say the USD/CAD was at a swing high, are you refering to the swing high to the left of the PB or are you saying that the PB was the swing High? This is something I have been trying to clarify for myself the past few weeks.
Thanks for the help!
jim
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Hey Jim
The pinbar is part of the swing high. As opposed to the eur/cad which was at a swing low. You will have both major and minor swing points. On usd/cad I drew a chart and we can see these swing points. The more space a swing point creates away from price the more major and obvious it becomes(think pinbar at swing high open space). The usd/cad was a much more clean trade. It was on the pullback to a very large trendline, off a major round number PPZ.
Also note eur/cad how low down on a swing low it is. This is the number 1 trouble sign that anyone who has been around for awhile will immediately dismiss this bar. Yes pinbars can be traded as continuation but I say it over and over, nto until you can trade them the standard way. Then also note the next day didn't break the pinbar, but formed a bullish bar. I know alter you are frustrated, and everyone gets frustrated when what they are doing isn't working. But you even said you know this isn't an A+ trade but it looked ok. If I gave you 3 trades to make a month, would this be one of them? What people must realize when trying to learn to trade PA, is that the bar itself is only a very small portion of what is happening. Location is much more important. The actual pin on eur/cad was nicer looking as a pin, but the location was very poor. Part of what automatically creates trouble for this pinbar is the fact of it being at a swing low creates no space, which means support is somehwere lurking VERY close. These concepts really do interwine with themselves. If you are having trouble defining swing points and space, please check my pinbar video out that is up. Most people see a shape bar be it a pin, beob, buob, and then just assume it is worth trading. If you absolutely were going to take then eur/cad the next day I think most would have canceled there order when the low wasn't breached and a bullish bar showed up. As opposed to the usd/cad which gave an inside bar(in the shape of a pin). I was personally short from the 4hr on usd/cad and held through the break).
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 11:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
Mike even if EURCAD PIN was not at the swing high it was at strong PPZ level. It definitely was not blind entry in the middle of nowhere (as I see it).
Meanwhile , USDCAD was heading into minor PPZ at 1.2300, so no go for me.
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Hey Alter
I can certainly understand the no trade on usd/cad, I only took it on the 4hr and the daily just happened to do what it did.
As for eur/cad, even though it was a strong PPZ we sould wait for the ones off strong PPZ that create space and at a swing high. This is how James teaches us and it is the most conservative. I want to help you work through this so I have another question if you don't mind me asking(we can talk via PM or skype chat too). Did you enter on the close of the pin? Did you have a pending order below and what was your though with the next day being a big bullish bar.
I hope you know I only want to help and many others will benefit from you being willing to ask questions openly
Thanks
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 11:30am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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One last thing, hang with me Alter
Ok now when a pinbar sits at such a swing low, what happens is the s/r levels that are normally more minimal now come into effect much quicker. Lack of space creates this problem(for the most part). So what happens is we now need to look to close bar highs and lows for possible turning points to clear. If you look to the left the bar high which sits at 1.5950 is where price hits and stalls. Being so close to our pin b/c it is at that direct swing low. So if one wants to trade this still(and of course that is up to you), the best thing would be to place your order under that. To me though, when that next day was such a large bullish bar, that is when it is best to close out your order. BUt now we cans ee if price clears the 5950 level the next set of lows I marked off in blue.
I hope this clears up some things, maybe not though
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 11:41am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpa0827
Awesome Post Mike, Thanks! That helped me a ton with understanding this trade. How often do you think a trade like this USD/CAD shows up. I was pretty frustrated that I missed it.
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I can't give you a timeline really. The market gives you what it gives you. Some months they are breakout style trades, other they are massive pins at swing lows/highs. Basically the best is to learn the ins and outs of location/support/resistance/PA and then be adaptable to the different situations. While each situation is independent of one and another in the end the concepts are all pulled from the same place. Obviously the USD/cad was a unique situation that has taken awhile to develop as the consolidation took place for quite some time. But there is always a pair consolidating, and always a pair moving. So you can always pick and choose your battles
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 12:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
Ok, MIke I thought there is enough space so my target was at the blue area on your chart. I didn't consider 1 bar high as a potential trouble zone as I can find some bar highs on any trade. I mean there are always some bars on the left side.
I entered on the brake of the PIN. We had IB formed next day. I though , ok PIN is still valid as the high of the bar was not broken. Later during the day news was released that triggered my order. But normally I dont pay attention to news unless it is interest rate related.
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Hey Alter
I understand, my only point is that when you trade at a swing low like this, that those bar highs lows, become a much bigger concern. So my thing would be to protect oneself by either dropping the order if the next bar doesn't break(ie no momentum), or placing your order below that one high. Now of course what is done is done, but hopefully you can see that price did in the end do what we would have expected in that scenario. We trade and learn from our past trades, build our confidence on demo. It takes some time and is not easy.
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Apr 24, 2009 3:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
That's because he doesn't have any kids....
(... not counting us, here on the forum) 
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ok yanks and sox fans know where I'm off too
have a great weekend all
Mike
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