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  #15065  
Old Nov 6, 2008 4:18pm
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Another area to be watched. It would be very nice if a daily pin started the ball rolling.
.
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  #15134  
Old Nov 9, 2008 1:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flem26 View Post
Bearish outside bar on weekly chart of crude futures. If this ship does not turn around $50 is in the cards at some point. Forget about the emerging economies and their craving for oil, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is price. Thanks Jim.

BTW, that close below the 365 day ema (blue line) is key.
The most likely scenario is that we'll be trading in a range $58-86 for the next 6 months. Look for the best setup between those two ppz.
Personally I doubt, we'll be sitting below $60 for too long... and Ideally I'd love to see a PB off of 52.
.
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  #15166  
Old Nov 10, 2008 11:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
The most likely scenario is that we'll be trading in a range $58-86 for the next 6 months. Look for the best setup between those two ppz.
Personally I doubt, we'll be sitting below $60 for too long... and Ideally I'd love to see a PB off of 52.
.
... or you can go lower, look for your PPZs and trade accordingly, using PA (if you like intra-day action...)
.
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  #15272  
Old Nov 13, 2008 12:25am
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uj
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  #15294  
Old Nov 13, 2008 2:14pm
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dow.

.
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  #15299  
Old Nov 13, 2008 3:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Yeah. Watching the DBLHC on the SP 2 hr. More affordable to me. lol

I suppose you faded that?
.. yes, when dow hit that 3B (around 7990), I bought all three: dj, e/u and g/u...., been waiting for the last 3 days for this . Set up tps for half and will see what happens with the rest.
R.
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  #15302  
Old Nov 13, 2008 4:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXBat View Post
hey Raczek, were you thinking abt this PB? will you trade it? i think it looks great.

(USD/CHF Daily PB)
Was watching weekly ppz on u/chf. I have already pos in fiber, but this could be a very nice trade also. We could get a weekly PB as well. We'll see. I have marked (blue horizontal lines on daily) few points of interest.....
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  #15303  
Old Nov 13, 2008 4:21pm
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Default cable.

gu also looks interesting. I'm not a fundi guy, but lower interest rates should already be priced in here. If we get a daily pb, I might stay in this trade. If not I'll call it the weekend..
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  #15307  
Old Nov 13, 2008 6:16pm
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What's up with GJ
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  #15308  
Old Nov 13, 2008 6:44pm
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5pips short of a daily buovb.
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  #15309  
Old Nov 13, 2008 7:08pm
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daily buovb right on ppz...
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  #15312  
Old Nov 13, 2008 8:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
I will admit i am not the sharpest knife here. But i am really confused on setups like this. Yes it is a PB and on the daily TF which i find are fairly reliable, even ones in bad positions i can often get to BE at least.

However with all those bar highs at 1.180 will this trade have any place to go? So far i see pb and weekly PPZ for the trade and the trend with recent resistance against the trade. Am i missing something obvious here?
you're absolutely correct. If pin breaks, price will most likely slow down or stop around 1.18. This is exactly why I prefer a 'little' more aggressive method of trading, which allows me more room to maneuver, once price moves 'in the right direction'. These days however market is very volatile and everything is possible.
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  #15339  
Old Nov 14, 2008 9:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Wow raczek, your on a roll. Nice charts.

BEOB on the 8 hour Usd/Chf.

Jim
Thanks Jim.

I was 'pushed' out of my FT career due to 'restructuring' (friends hiring friends), so I will need to pay my bills from trading for a while...

R.
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  #15355  
Old Nov 14, 2008 11:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Its a good feeling when you can do this. Go get some Mark..
I hate scalping, but may have no choice for some time....

Closed e/u and g/u last night at 18:43PM EST. Reason: past experience
Market is still wild and I was anticipating a pullback in asia after US sesion excitement.
Reopened following trades on pullback at 9:30AM EST:
g/j 142.255
g/chf 1.7553
e/u 1.2670
g/u 1.4757
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  #15365  
Old Nov 14, 2008 4:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swami S View Post
Was with you on eu identical entry, just got shaken out darn it. How are yours doing? guessing you took some profit off the table. Nice spread of entries dude.
I needed to take kids to a doc at 2, but moved my stops to be + some before that.
tp for g/j at 146.10 (missed it by few pips)
tp for G/Chf at 177.50 (missed)
tp for G/U at 1.4940 hit
fiber stopped out at BE
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  #15377  
Old Nov 17, 2008 10:39am
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.. a few of mine trades that triggered last night.

R
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  #15385  
Old Nov 17, 2008 1:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Good trades Raczek. Could i ask you how do you manage your sl?
Originally they were set below those IBs (not all of them are IBs)
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  #15390  
Old Nov 17, 2008 2:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Hey raczekfx

Want to wish you all the best with the trading.

I am sure you will have no difficulty paying those bills from your trading profits.

Cheers

FXP
Thanks Fxpro.. , no worries, trading is simple and much easier than any job...... , thanks to a founder of this thread and few other, good friends.

R.
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  #15391  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:00pm
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UC.
.
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  #15393  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:09pm
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Default we shall find out soon.

what's a gonna be, 1.18 or 1.32?
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  #15398  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scratchy View Post
This is not that different from what James16 teaches, but by trading off the 1 minute chart gets you the 5% today!
5% on 1min, and just today, you say...
That's like 100% per month and without taking asymmetrical leverage into account....

I'm just kind'a wonder, what 100% of nothing equals to...
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  #15405  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scratchy View Post
So you don't even make 5% per day? What are you doing all day then?
Watching clouds go by...
I'm very happy with just 0.3%
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  #15407  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Your not trading from your glider are you Mark??
no wifi up there, Jeff..
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  #15409  
Old Nov 17, 2008 4:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
You have it on mobile dont you.
I can just see the next photo of Mark on his blackbury typing away with clouds slipping quietly by...
I have an old 8700, but can't type with one hand while holding a stick in another ...lol


This cross will break out higher imho, but until that happens, we're stuck in a range. Look for PA for hints.
.
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  #15502  
Old Nov 19, 2008 9:52am
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Finally moving in the right direction. Almost at TPs
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  #15504  
Old Nov 19, 2008 10:11am
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.. and one more (just bought). This is not based on PA, therefore risky trade in anticipation of a break out higher. Will auto industry be allowed to bite the dust or will they be bailed out.....?

ps. looking for 98 and then 100. Ok... time to do some Christmas shopping.. will check back after US markets close
.
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  #15522  
Old Nov 19, 2008 3:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
GBP/JPY
Right direction?
I was looking for a shorting position off weekly support around 14800 plus 50%fib on 4hr
Pin bar seems to be forming - if it keeps dropping.
then trade short with the trend
That's correct. Have a look at pb or ib on my chart, formed off drawn ppz
148.5 was my TP. In terms of short trade I was going to wait for a PA around 149.5. This may change depending what daily bar we get today...
It's not over till it's over. We may still see a run up on dow late in a session (I use it as a barometer for all my yen trades)
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  #15525  
Old Nov 19, 2008 5:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Looks like we might have a Pin Bar forming on the GBPUSD Daily charts, with the trend.

With the previous congestion, this is not an A trade but might be worth a few pips if it breaks.
It's a nice PB, sitting on ppz. If it breaks, it could be good for some 300ps.
.
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  #15529  
Old Nov 19, 2008 10:29pm
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dow futures are testing support for the 4th time. If it breaks....
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  #15552  
Old Nov 20, 2008 1:23pm
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It's been a busy day...

Here are few of my trades for today. They were all executed when Dow Jones matched the low from October 7, 2002. PA has always been great to me, but I hope you guys also keep an eye on over all markets. When DJ's approaching 6 year low, this is definitely a golden opportunity (sparks will fly) if you know which pairs to chose for trading... . TPs had been hit.
.
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  #15555  
Old Nov 20, 2008 1:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
good stuff Mark.. at least the markets are moving again.
and that's what wee need, volatility. I'm really looking forward to that last bar becoming a pb today. Lot's of time left.
I also made a bold move today and moved all of mine long term investments out of the money markets funds (they've been sitting there since July 2007) and put them into equities. Time will tell if that's was the right move. Is 7776 a bottom for Dow? Let's hope so, too many jobs will be lost if things won't settle soon....
Happy trading to all.

M
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  #15567  
Old Nov 20, 2008 5:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
This is how we roll.

...

Jim
yup. this video is worth $Ks alone. Will people learn from it and use the golden knowledge, it contains? I sure hope so, but there still be 95%, who will use tons of indicators, guru's signals, etc and continue to wonder for another 10years why they can't make it..... to work
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  #15592  
Old Nov 21, 2008 12:18pm
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Another day with plenty of PA gifts. This one was a beautiful one with nice confluence and good for some 250ps. TP down to a pip.
Have a great weekend!

R
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  #15594  
Old Nov 21, 2008 12:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Raczekfx,

I passed on this trade due to what appeared to be support not too far below the Pin bar.

Did you wait for a break of this support to enter the trade? Did the support not concern you? Do I suck and cannot pick out support and resistence and scared myself out of a good trade (LOL, probably true)?

Thanks!
no, I didn't. If you read my previous posts, my favorite setup is between 50/61 fib near confluence areas... It's anything but conservative entry. The first resistance, I was looking at was around 1.48 (watch James free videos for hints )
I missed my R-db setup, otherwise I'd be in it at 1.5056 with 25pip stop..
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  #15603  
Old Nov 21, 2008 3:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nAVIN2007 View Post
i was in the same trade, only i thought over some time perhaps it might break that low and go further down....
did u exit on the low or did u wait a bit on retrace to see if it would attemp to break the low

i got out on the bullish pin type pattern on 1hr
out of half at 1.4820, out of the rest at 1.4750.
I'm now long since 1.4712 (based on my own R-db method), after 1hr pb (off ppz) broke higher, I added to a full position on fib retrace. I'm looking for gaps on e/u, g/u, and all yen crosses when market opens on Sunday.
tip: watch for dow futures hitting 7950 ( I may lighten my positions there)
hope it helps.

R

p.s.

my current positions:
long e/u
long g/u
long g/j
long e/j
long u/j
short us/cad

I expect good profit on these crosses over the next few days...
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  #15614  
Old Nov 22, 2008 11:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Keep rocking Rac

I really admire each of your PA trades you take, i took the Gu short at the 1H Pb to get a better price than waiting for the 4H to close , i got burned, but does'nt matter I always enjoy my loosers as they help me learn more than any knowledge i gain from my winners.

Keep posting around, we are extermely fortunate that ppl like you can be around the forum throwing abt pieces of gem

God Bless!

Regards,
Ghous.
You?re welcome guys, but most of the credit goes to James.
I?ve been using a lot of ?crap? (read indicators and worthless systems) since 1995. I even wasted money on many of them, but it was James16, who opened my eyes some time ago and implanted in my head, that ?simple things? always work the best. PA is simple and when practiced on demo for some time, you should ?get a feel for it?.
I only added some experience, observations and mass psychology to improve my results, and that?s all, seriously.
I mainly trade off of a daily charts, but since that political B.S. at my previous workplace, I do some day trading on smaller TFs (1hr being the lowest). Sometimes I get ?lucky? to get in almost at ?bottom? of the move. That?s risky, but it?s also my style of trading and I enjoy it.
I wrote more about it in the PF some time ago, and since then, nothing has really changed. Should I go back to a corporate world again, I will move back to daily TF and use only ?SIMPLE STUFF?. It works 80% out of time; the rest is patience, common sense and money management.

In the last 3 weeks, I made about 20 trades and every single one of them showed at least 100ps profit before reversing. Did I win all of them? No, I didn?t but that?s another story and failure to move stop to BE at some point. Bottom line is, that if you treat trading as a business, and not as some sort of exciting video game, you will succeed in the long term. There is no other way, imho.

Cheers and happy trading.

R
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  #15621  
Old Nov 22, 2008 1:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Its awsome that you are showing how you trade, (sort of ).
I only admire what you do Mark.
As I said, you keep go getting some..... One day i'll get to where you are.
When I do, I want to go fly, never done that. only sailed....
Don't be so modest Jeff.. I know, you trade very well

Soaring is a beautiful thing. You have to try an intro flight one day.

Here are some great short videos to let you see what's it like:


http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=JKTTX-skuxM

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  #15629  
Old Nov 23, 2008 11:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
Hi, Raczek!
Always nice to see You around!
I think unlv wanted to ask You wheather the 4H bar highs and lows (blue line) concerned You, or not?
Am I right when I think, this trade was based on D1 pin eye level, and You set the target based on daily bars, not 4H?
Correct me, please, if I wrong!
THX, Laszlo
ok. I'll give you a hint, but you'd have to figure out the rest by yourself....
(just ignore that buy line, you see on the chart)

That short trade was based on a combination of:

1. what was captured by blue rectangle on 1hr chart attached...
2. a 4hr chart, I posted on Friday
and 3. (see next post)
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  #15630  
Old Nov 23, 2008 11:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..
and 3. (see next post)
... and this daily chart, which is self explanatory. You know I can't say just everything. There are only few poeople who post here, but there are hundreds other lurkers, who will combine this info into a system e-book and sell it on ebay or other websites. We have to keep some secrets hidden from a generic public......

(kidding of course)
.

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  #15634  
Old Nov 23, 2008 5:17pm
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are we going to break this resistance on the first try?
I doubt it, but who knows. If not, I'd expect some pullback on yen crosses....
At least we know exactly why price stopped where it did.
.
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  #15635  
Old Nov 23, 2008 5:24pm
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Default u/cad

Will this Beovb work out as we would expect? Let's watch it..
.
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  #15636  
Old Nov 23, 2008 5:30pm
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Default G/J

why is yeppy having problems breaking, higher?
Here's the chart.
.
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  #15637  
Old Nov 23, 2008 5:33pm
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How about e/j?

Exactly the same reason as g/j.
.
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  #15638  
Old Nov 23, 2008 5:40pm
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and fiber is getting tighter and tighter.... Something's got to snap soon..
.
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  #15640  
Old Nov 23, 2008 6:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LongToBeFree View Post
Thanx for posting the charts.

I don't know what your definition of "soon" is but EURUSD should continue the bear trend, I see no reason why it would stop. On D1, the 200MA should cross below the 365SMA sometime this week and I believe that indicates a continuation in the trend.
Should, would, could.... perhaps it will, perhaps it will hit 1.30 first.
Sorry, I know nothing about crossing MAs systems...
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  #15657  
Old Nov 24, 2008 10:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panos69 View Post
trade.a conservative 1 shouldnt take it due to the tp/sl ratio.with small shots its ok in my book...
very nice. Buovb on 1hr off the ppz started that move on my charts. Now we're sitting on resistance.
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  #15658  
Old Nov 24, 2008 10:15am
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if equities and crude oil will 'cooperate', we could perhaps hit our next TPs
For g/j, I see it around 145.80 and for loonie around 1.2530. E/J has just been hit.
It seems, I'm flooding our thread again, time to take a break....
Trade wisely.
.
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  #15660  
Old Nov 24, 2008 10:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Hey Raczek, What makes your short entry on the USD/CAD Daily? Is there any PA or other confluence except for that previous resistant swing high. Thanks

ALM
PA on oil futures and imminent failure of a double top on CAD. Hope you're enjoying the ride..

p.s. just closed that trade @ 1,2390 (almost 450ps). I know it's not a 5min trade and it took whole 2 trading days to unfold...., but hey, I like to have a life.
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  #15662  
Old Nov 24, 2008 11:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordElessar View Post
Very good trade on USDCAD, Raczekfx!

I didn't see this beautiful double top with MACD divergence on loonie...
This make me sad... Well let's wait to another good setup.

One question.
Is it important the fibo confluence marked in my chart? If I had seen this setup on loonie, probably I would have skipped because of that confluence.

Is my fibo drawn correct?

thanks!
Can't really see numbers on your chart. Here's what my fibs look like.
.
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  #15667  
Old Nov 24, 2008 12:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordElessar View Post
Thanks for the answer Raczek. I've posted a better chart in my last post if you want to see.

I drawn the white fibo from the last top to bottom of the monthly chart and the blue one was the last daily swing.
they seem to be drawn backwards or is it me.... ,if you're looking for a retrace, draw them from the lowest point to the highest point. hope this helps.
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  #15668  
Old Nov 24, 2008 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Kaboom... like it.
I may have to adopt that myself when a trade takes off..
Believe it or not, but it helps the momentum...
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  #15673  
Old Nov 24, 2008 12:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
450ps is nothing if it's $100.

Also no need to bash others on the way they trade, I do the 5min because it works for me. Let me know when 20 pips = $30,000 then you can say what I do is a waste of time.


Also I don't need a life I don't have to work unlike others.
Dude, I'm bashing no one. This is actually the first post of yours I read, since it was addressed to me. Even if your pip is worth $1,000, it makes no difference to me. Rest assure, I'll be even happier for you.
Have a great day Mr. no life....
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  #15678  
Old Nov 24, 2008 2:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hi all,

I am a little stumped on inside bars. I will leave these for now as they seem harder to read than the other PA setups, but for future reference...
what did i do wrong?

I went short when bar no.3 broke below the inside bar no.2. I had my stop above bar no.1 It then immediately moved up and through my stop.

Was the setup just in the wrong place? and this is how i should have played this? Or should my entry point have been below the low of bar no.1


thanks

Simon
You played it correctly (imo), but IBs are tricky and as everything else, they don't always work.
Actually on my chart the very same IB broke to the upside. You can always go quickly to a lower tf to get a better picture. My 1hr shows a ppz right in the area where your IB broke lower.
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  #15680  
Old Nov 24, 2008 2:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
You played it correctly (imo), but IBs are tricky and as everything else, they don't always work.
Actually on my chart the very same IB broke to the upside. You can always go quickly to a lower tf to get a better picture. My 1hr shows a ppz right in the area where your IB broke lower.
Look at this IB. It broke lower and they higher. I'd suggest you stay away from IBs until you master PBs and BE/Uovbs first. I never liked IBs at first either and it took me some time, before I got comfortable with them.
.
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  #15687  
Old Nov 24, 2008 3:42pm
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Watch eur/usd, gpb/usd and e/j, g/j once we hit that ppz. It might be a clue to our next PA setup....
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  #15689  
Old Nov 24, 2008 4:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Watch eur/usd, gpb/usd and e/j, g/j once we hit that ppz. It might be a clue to our next PA setup....
hope you enjoyed it in real time. market will do it over and over again if you're patient enough.
Oh well, another day, another penny on a $100 account...
Happy trading to all and see you around!
.
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  #15709  
Old Nov 24, 2008 8:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Watch eur/usd, gpb/usd and e/j, g/j once we hit that ppz. It might be a clue to our next PA setup....

.
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  #15711  
Old Nov 24, 2008 8:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
No, thanks..
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  #15714  
Old Nov 24, 2008 9:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sonicdeejay View Post
could it be minor retracment??

it was such a bullish engulfing...??

Sonic
it could be, I don't know.
I'm quite content with drops on yen crosses. Booked nice profit on half, other half is at BE, so it does not really matter ...
My account stands at $ 102 now....
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  #15749  
Old Nov 25, 2008 8:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Raczek, you said you are making 0.3% per day. Now it seems more. SLOW DOWN!
I will have to, otherwise our friend here might have problems adding the numbers , 450ps and .3 % ...

BTW. someone please help him....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Also I have really never drawn trend lines. Is there a good book that helps with this? Thanks again.
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  #15789  
Old Nov 26, 2008 8:52am
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...same charts/trades as posted real time in the pf yesterday. in some instances price moved up/down almost to a pip
.
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  #15790  
Old Nov 26, 2008 9:03am
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.. and stopped right where many would expect it (in a perfect world)..
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  #15796  
Old Nov 26, 2008 11:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jameson83 View Post
I was wondering what that sell line on the GPBJPY was?
That's a spot where I sold g/j. At the same time, I sold e/u and g/u. I dedicated my time to PF yesterday, hence no posting here.
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  #15797  
Old Nov 26, 2008 11:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
great post Raczek, it literally seems You and Jim are the same guy! Both of you trade incredibly similiarly. May i know what MA's are you using??
lol... no, we're two different 'humans'.
MAs you see are 55 and 150. I don't use them, but keep them for a reference.
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  #15799  
Old Nov 26, 2008 11:27am
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eu (alert areas)
.
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  #15801  
Old Nov 26, 2008 11:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Heavy resistance coming soon for Eur/Chf at 1.5557. Previous resistance and Fib retracement confluence (61.2 and 50% levels). You can bet people other people are watching this level. ..
Yes. Personally, I'm looking at 1.5560/1.5590.
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  #15805  
Old Nov 26, 2008 12:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jameson83 View Post
ohh wow. theres a gold mind in there!
glad you like it
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  #15806  
Old Nov 26, 2008 12:46pm
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I actually pulled the buy button sooner.. at 5190 and 2830

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
eu (alert areas)
.
posted live in the PF
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post

bought cable 1.5190 and fiber 1.2830
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  #15807  
Old Nov 26, 2008 12:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I actually pulled the buy button sooner.. at 5190 and 2830

here's why..
.
p.s. before you ask. this is not based on PA
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  #15809  
Old Nov 26, 2008 1:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I would really like to know what it is based on Rac If i am not asking too much on a public forum sine obviously there was no PA to confirm the bounce of the s/r flip i am curious what gets you in this trade.
sure ghous. It's based on simple support/resistance trading and some info from a great book. Check out 'favorite trading book' in my profile...

it's really great, once you practice, practice and practice it for a while..
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  #15825  
Old Nov 26, 2008 11:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyra View Post
Hi raczekfx,
could you please elaborate a bit on how u manage the SL and TP based on this support/resistance trading?Thank you.
When trading S/R, my stops are no greater than 35ps. The larger position, the smaller my stop is, and I'm very picky with S/Rs setups. If I do my homework properly, they're rarely hit. TPs are usually next S/R levels, unless something tells me to close early. I close half and move stop to BE +2 at that time.

When trading PA, I place stops 10-20ps below 'the setup bars' (PB, be/uovbs, IBs, etc) and sometimes they can be as large as 300ps as it was the case with cable's beovb on Nov.9, 2007. Hope this helps.
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  #15829  
Old Nov 27, 2008 8:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyra View Post
Thanks raczekfx for the prompt reply.Do you have criteria when selecting the support/resistence you are going to place your limit order? In other words how do you find an efficient support/resistence? Your performance really amazed me.Thanks.
start with monthly tf and look for s/r, go down to weekly, daily and do the same thing. If s/r on a higher tf corresponds to one on the lower tf, you have much better chances it will hold again. When doing this, I had about 80% W/L ratio. If you just pick a random s/r on lower tf, chances it will hold are dramatically lower. If you pick s/r 'with a trend' (on price retrace), your odds are much greater than playing one against the trend.

If you're fairly new to trading, I'd forget about playing s/r until until you make money consistently using your own system. Generally speaking this way of trading carries great risk of losing money quickly, but everything can be mastered with patience, practice (on demo) and proper MM. The PROPER way of playing S/R is waiting for a PA around those levels before trading. Hope this helps. I have posted many chart examples in this thread, some of them live, but you'd have to do some searching....
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  #15877  
Old Nov 28, 2008 9:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
eu (alert areas)
.
Price bounced off area where we'd expect it to.
4hr ppz,1d ppz, 50/61 fib and something else, confluence.
Good target and quick aggressive long off 2700.

p.s. I was short cable and fiber from 1.2925 last night, but closed too soon
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  #15880  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:05am
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I also played short cable this morning after price retested break out area with 61fib confl.
I bet RustyJeff played that pb ? It formed in a perfect location..
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  #15882  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:22am
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If market forces cooperate today, we could see a test of 5200 area later in a day and ultimately 5100. Let's see.
.
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  #15885  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:28am
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Watch DJ futures today. When they hit 8880/8920, I'll be looking to buy yen
(short crosses). It worked 8 times out of 10 this month.
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  #15889  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:33am
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Watch how the weekly gold bar closes today. It might gives us some tips where $$ is headed next week. Price was rejected right at 61fib and price pivot confluence.

.
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  #15890  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Very nice Mark,
I only took the euro though as thats my prefered. I had been waiting for a while for this break lower. now waiting for another break or bounce & retest..

Still recovering from yesterdays overeating..
I closed fiber too early but caught up with with cable..
it's funny when I sold cable at 5376 this morning, I started moving down tfs and when I saw that 5min pb forming, I was happy....
Get some rest my friend. I'm almost done for the week, but want to see what dow and gold are going to do..
good trading to all.
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  #15891  
Old Nov 28, 2008 10:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hey Rac,

Should'nt 1.525 be a worry?? Plus any downmove may also be qualified for a pullback to the trendline just broken (I am talking abt the daily) the Mike thingy if so then we might have all the gredients for the dish called "breakout plus pullback plus PA"...Mike's a great cook...
I don't know ghous if we get there, I'm looking for a break out higher to about 1.58 next week (just like I was looking for fiber to hit 1.30 in my post #15640 last week ). Just watch the BIG foot prints.
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  #15923  
Old Dec 1, 2008 12:33am
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watch this cross closely over the next few days.
.
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  #15927  
Old Dec 1, 2008 8:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
watch this cross closely over the next few days.
.
never mind days. It took just ....8hr and for the price to drop 500ps..
Happy Monday and welcome to Holidays trading..
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  #15967  
Old Dec 1, 2008 4:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
another setup I'm watching.. .. (dow please move up to 8900; this will be a trigger for my e/j, g/j, g/u, e/u, n/u a/u )
Waited 5 days for this. Futures never reached that level so I had to pull triggers manually,.. exactly 17 hrs ago. Still have 3/4 of original positions...
Are we ready for a ride up...?
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  #15984  
Old Dec 1, 2008 10:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Jim, i have a question,

WHy don't you have fibs drawn from the highs of August and July??
Cause we're playing that weekly PB short now with potential target being 38fib. Fibs reflect retrace Oct 27 low - Nov 26 high
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  #16047  
Old Dec 2, 2008 5:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I think raczekfx would agree with you sir.
Absolutely. By taking a trade at 'the right location', you're increasing your chances greatly, where on the other hand trading just to trade, will make other people rich, not you. First chart is what I consider 'right location'. A pin bar (not the perfect one ) or bub off of weekly price pivot, 61fib and round number confluence. There is no 100% guarantee that it will work out, but at least you cherry pick your trades. When it fails, you accept it and move on to the next trade knowing that you did your homework. Losses are part of this business, but our work is to minimize them.
Second chart is what I consider 'no trade' or bad location. Some might say it's a pb or nice looking BB, however it's in the midle of consolidation area and chances that it will work out are slim. It also appeared right after Beovb, so that alone should make you think twice before jumping in.
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  #16048  
Old Dec 2, 2008 5:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Locashen , Locashen , Locashen.

And good to hear from you again Mr T.

...To all newcomers in here, A poster to listen too.
Yes Mr. Trend is the Man
He also has a nice trading website. Good to see you W.
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  #16051  
Old Dec 2, 2008 5:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
....
Second chart is what I consider 'no trade' or bad location. Some might say it's a pb or nice looking BB, however it's in the midle of consolidation area and chances that it will work out are slim. It also appeared right after Beovb, so that alone should make you think twice before jumping in.
Having said all that, it does not mean that you can't make money on that bar. Some people here trade on smaller TF and when you analyze that daily BUB on 4hr, you should notice that we had a pb off of ppz. That pb would be in a good location as well, if I traded on 4hr...
Another important question is where to take a profit, but that's up to a trader. If you watched James16 free videos, you would make at least 100ps..
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  #16126  
Old Dec 4, 2008 3:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordElessar View Post
About the cable PB.

I know that James16 and others don't pay attentio on news, but tomorrow has the NFP announce. So, if the today price bar closes with this PB, isn't risky to put a pending order at it?

I am afraid, cause due to the volatility cause by NFP, we can have our order triggered and price, after that, go to the wrong direction.
Well, I've closed all my positions today few minutes after mr. b had spoken. Pretty much all of them hit good resistance imo.
Regarding tomorrow's nfp, I hope we get some retraces on today's daily pins.
It might sound like crystal balling, but the last thing US of A needs right now is a strong $$$....
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  #16128  
Old Dec 4, 2008 3:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
raczekfx

Interesting you closed before B spoke. I learn something new here all the time, I love this thread.

If you don't mind sharing, did you take any trades today? If so, you don't have to post charts or an explanation, but could you list a few?

I think I can look at the charts and see what you saw and with 20/20 hindsight figure it out.

Thank you!
No secrets or magic here. If you have a plan and trade your plan.....
e.g.
G/U has approached ppz, 50/61fib (my favorite setup...). What would you do? Wait till it breaks that confluence... on the first try...
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  #16148  
Old Dec 4, 2008 11:51pm
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chf/jpy.
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  #16149  
Old Dec 4, 2008 11:59pm
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chf/jpy range trading while waiting for a break out...
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  #16151  
Old Dec 5, 2008 12:11am
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it isn't the nicest pb (on daily), but have a look at a monthly chart. How much lower can we go? If there is no reaction on futures after tomorrow's nonfarm report, I'll be looking for opportunity to buy.. with first tp around 1.52. If that trade works out, we should also see g/j hit 140.50 - 141. It's all speculations right now, but also part of planning phase of a trading plan for tomorrow.
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  #16153  
Old Dec 5, 2008 12:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Approaching 2TP ghous. Check out the Monthly PPZ. Strong level.

Nice trade plan.

Jim
I'd love to see 200ps pb off 2900 here...
triple top, all kind of divergence, confluence.
G... I wish I was more excited. Trading is boring..
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  #16154  
Old Dec 5, 2008 12:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Yo raczek.

Would this Cad Monthly S/R Levels (PPZ) be something you would be looking at? (please say yes. )
Absolutely.
Just spelled out my thoughts in a post above.
This is when smart traders fill up their coffers.
time to hit the pillow...
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  #16156  
Old Dec 5, 2008 12:26am
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Default BEOVB

I absolutely love this chart....
How much one contract sold at the beginning of August would be worth now? anyone?
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  #16157  
Old Dec 5, 2008 12:28am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Should be fun to see how it plays out. . . I mean boring how it plays out. lol
lol.. it's going to be busy day tomorrow. Let's see some fireworks.
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  #16203  
Old Dec 5, 2008 2:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I'd love to see 200ps pb off 2900 here...
triple top, all kind of divergence, confluence.
G... I wish I was more excited. Trading is boring..
got a love it when your plan works out....
It's been very good day today. Hope every one did very well.

R.
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  #16204  
Old Dec 5, 2008 2:53pm
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I let you a bit of my trading plan for today...
Not too much since it's a public forum after all....

This chart/setup below..
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  #16205  
Old Dec 5, 2008 2:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..

This chart/setup below..
...was a trigger for the following trades below.
Have a great weekend everyone. Trade well...
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  #16209  
Old Dec 5, 2008 3:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p View Post
Rac, thanks for posting your charts. I've learned a lot from studying them over the past few weeks. I hope that one day I can have an eye for as many markets and timeframes as you do!
I'm glad I could help. I only watch about 30 markets, including 18 currencies. This gives me opportunity to pick the best setups, instead of trading just for 'fun'. Many times futures, indexes and 'some' pairs can tip you off before other crosses take off or tank.
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  #16210  
Old Dec 5, 2008 3:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
The cad & gbp were just too perfect for me today.
Ive allready added to them
I smell the december rally. divergence, over sold conditions, a rally on friday after the worst jobs numbers in 34 years...........
maybe people are getting tired of selling.
have a good weekend all awsome week.
Lol... Jeff you must be one of those traders...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16154
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  #16212  
Old Dec 5, 2008 3:36pm
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closing the gap?
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  #16237  
Old Dec 5, 2008 7:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Thought I'd throw some weekly's into the mix.
Amen to text on the first chart!
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  #16238  
Old Dec 5, 2008 7:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
flu has bit me in the ass, lots of meds and water for me
Get well Mike, and invest some of your profits in this
You'll never get a flue again.
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  #16239  
Old Dec 5, 2008 8:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65 View Post
Hello Raczekfx,

Thanks a lot, I've learned a lot from studying your charts too.

I didn't see any Stop Loss levels, just your entry levels : does it mean that you use big stop loss levels ?

Thanks for your attention

Cheers

Angel65
Hi Angel,
I keep stops just below the setup that triggered my trade. If it's a pb on 1hr, stop would be few pips below/above that pb. If there is ppz, 61fib or some kind of confluence, I could place it below/above it. Same rules apply to trading on daily, weekly, monthly charts. If I enter on 1hr most of the time I'm out on the same time frame.
e.g. I shorted u/c on 1hr and my initial stop was above monthly ppz. I have now moved my stop as indicated below. Please note that I haven't played or assumed daily PB yet. When I decide to play that daily pin, my initial stop will be again above monthly ppz and will exit it on daily as well.
You don't see stops on charts I post simply because I don't use MT4 for trading. I only use it to keep track of my trades as a visual representation. I pull a trigger and then execute the same trade on my demo mt4 and save it later for reference. Hope this helps.

R.
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  #16250  
Old Dec 6, 2008 8:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 786 trading View Post
Hi raczekfx,

I just have a question about your short at U/C.
Why you did short here? That was not a pin bar, is it?
Please I am learning so your explanation will help me a lot.

Thanks.
On Thursday night, after analyzing charts I saw 80% probability of daily pin forming on Friday on Cad. This thread is about PA and not about precognition,so I stop here...
You can read post by Life of pip (#16216) and Northpro. They were watching the same charts I was....
for Life of Pi p
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  #16251  
Old Dec 6, 2008 8:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canados View Post
raczekfx
you're really great...you take every good signal
I didn't take yesterday signals because it was friday afternoon
thanks, but I don't take every signal. I do my due diligence, check PF for Mike's take on the market (), watch for PA on smaller tf (once I made decision) and then trade..... unless I'm intoxicated (then, I take every signal - joking of course)
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  #16252  
Old Dec 6, 2008 8:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tokwanden View Post
Not much on PA, but all base on price retrace after approaching PPZ. I read raczekfx post regarding yesterday NFP and he mentioned pairs that he was monitoring playing around the strong/respected PPZ area. I see how this strong PPZ is respected before and I agree with him price is due to retrace if it fail to give strong impact toward current direction after the NFP announcement. As I mentioned this is copy from raczekfx entry stail. (playing around PPZ)
Nice trades tokwanden.
It sounds, I run signal provider here... I better stop..
Just a few words of caution.
I don't emphasize on trades around s/r ppzs. I trade strictly PA and those trades are just 'reconnaissance scouts', if you will, with absolutely strict rules and MM. Trading ppz CAN BE and WILL BE lethal to your account unless you use strict money management and proper stops. That's no secret, I've been there many times before but don't have plans to revisit those times.... . Friday’s trades were combination of a big puzzle put together, which included thoughts on US economy, bad NF news already priced in, oil and Cad hitting strong resistance, past experience and many other items from micro economy. Just so you are aware these were not blinds trades. Please exercise great caution if you trade aggressively without waiting for confirmed PA first.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Nice trading plan raczek (as always). Clean and simply.

(God, I love this thread.)
We learnt from the best.....
You're not the only one. You'd be surprised to know, who reads this thread.... and never posts.
Got a watch what we write here...
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  #16261  
Old Dec 6, 2008 12:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tokwanden View Post
raczekfx sorry and txs. Sorry for using word emphasize. I just cant find the right word to explain it in proper way but I really/always do understand that u and others in here using strictly PA. Confluence of PPZ Fibo, round numbers and all just to make the signal more reliable/strong. (hopefully I don't make it worst this time.English is always difficult for me).

I don't take it as a signal but as a guideline to be a better trader and I learn a lot from it..
I was teasing you...
... and don't worry about your English. It's better than mine.
English isn't my first either. It's third or perhaps fourth, I've learnt..
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  #16262  
Old Dec 6, 2008 12:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65 View Post
Hi Raczekfx,

Thanks a lot for your reply !!

You have been sharing your knowledge a lot with the community and it's very kind of you...............

My best to you

Have a great week end all

Cheers

Angel65
Welcome Angel..
You see, I 'know' that the more you give away or share with others, the more comes back to you. Why do you think J16 is a wealthy and happy man?
Because he's got a big and sincere heart, and helps others less fortunate, even though he could be silent. It's people like him, who make this world a better place. The Universe is full of live and intelligent energy.. what goes around, comes around...(and folks, who started this crisis, know that)
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  #16294  
Old Dec 7, 2008 2:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrinityVisum View Post
If ~1.2740 does not hold I will look for a short around fib 50 and minor hourly ppz.
if 38 doesn't hold, we'll revisit 2880/2920
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  #16297  
Old Dec 7, 2008 3:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrinityVisum View Post
Is that a guarantee, or are you hoping?
Hope will kill your account.... and there are no guarantees in forex, only probabilities.
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  #16298  
Old Dec 7, 2008 3:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Thanks clockwork,
Maybe I phrased my question wrong.What I meant to ask about is the risk/reward on this trade.Looks as if a stop is put above the pin,we are not even at a 1:1 RR.Sorry for the confusment.And thank you also clockwork for your post,I always make sure I read your posts if I come accross them!Goodtrading!
Everyone will look at the same chart and will see different things. Let's say someone I know is looking at sl above friday's high and tp around 1.21 and 1.18, which would give him about 2:1 or 3:1 (reward/risk)
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  #16300  
Old Dec 7, 2008 3:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrinityVisum View Post
Exactly, and you posted a statement. Take a closer look at my original post, there is no hope or guarantee there. Please kindly take your own advise before telling others what is going to happen with the market.
Sure I will. Thanks for your advise...
BTW. Welcome to the forum TV
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  #16393  
Old Dec 8, 2008 10:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
An Ib i just took on the Gbp/chf 4H chart in the form of a pending order waiting for the low to break, it was off the 50% fib the trrigger being the Ib ofcaorse. The first target has been labelled.

calling on Rac...

Regards,
Ghous.
If I was in this trade I would've shorted right where your blue down arrow is plotted...
No trade for me here, but watch 1.77 area. I won't say what's going to happen here so TV don't get upset...
I was watching g/chf on daily but price didn't get quite where I wanted (1.8260).

will look to reload later in a day..

Only 2 trades for me last night.
1. added more shorts to u/c at 1.2694
2. longed cad/jpy at 73.09
I'm flat now as of 9:03 am EST
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  #16396  
Old Dec 8, 2008 10:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Why do you think you've lost the chance to make 200 pips? You didn't expect a pullback after a quick move like that? Late Asia pushed all of those pairs up quickly last night -- you need to expect some sort of pullback going into US. This happens every day...
Absolutely, especially when you watch other markets and can read between the lines....

what's a gonna be...? Big break or violent retrace...
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  #16399  
Old Dec 8, 2008 10:38am
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...BEIJING, Dec 8 (Reuters) - One of the top managers of China Investment Corp, the country's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, reckons current dollar strength is temporary and he would like to bet that the U.S. currency is headed lower.

CIC President Gao Xiqing was speaking in an interview with monthly U.S. magazine The Atlantic two weeks before the Nov. 4 U.S. election. The euro was trading at that time between $1.30 and $1.35.....


They must be reading our thread....
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  #16400  
Old Dec 8, 2008 10:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wellington View Post
what's a gonna be...? Big break or violent retrace...
Violent retrace...

-The Iron Duke-[/quote]

Are you sure..?

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  #16404  
Old Dec 8, 2008 10:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wellington View Post

.. Just managed to take a little bit out of the canadian dollar from the short side,
... more to come..

Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
9300 may be on the line soon.
so I'm thinking...
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  #16410  
Old Dec 8, 2008 11:09am
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[quote=Wellington;2404114]
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
... more to come..

Hope so...haven't closed entire position yet

-The Iron Duke-
watch 1.2650/80..
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  #16415  
Old Dec 8, 2008 11:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Hey raczek... gimme some of your pips... .... or else...
Come over anytime T... I have space and extra computers, food, good wine and ..... -10C weather...
It's hard to trade alone..
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  #16422  
Old Dec 8, 2008 11:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
He had you at the wine, right? He's such a sneaky bastard.


Ru ready to buy yen crosses yet?
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  #16436  
Old Dec 8, 2008 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
After US lunch... Here in about 45 minutes...

Actually, I have enough positions on... I'm selling dollar and buying AUDJPY at the moment.
ok. let's do it.
b: gu, gj, ej, uj, cj, nj, aj
s: uc
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  #16441  
Old Dec 8, 2008 3:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
I was wondering when I would see that post
Posted and traded live 2min later... you got to love it...
Ok, enough of signals for today....
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  #16446  
Old Dec 8, 2008 3:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Here's one for ya Rac..

This was a pure resistance play.. stop at be. lets see what happens.
Now..., that daily bar has potential of hitting 1.32 imho, but your short entry is where I would take some profit on long play. lol
stop at be is probably good idea.
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  #16454  
Old Dec 8, 2008 4:23pm
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daily pin with a trend, time to close longs....
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  #16488  
Old Dec 8, 2008 9:26pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
C'mon Rac,
Wheres' ya majic 8 ball...
now, now, now.. you not going to get me into overtrading
It was a very good Monday and let's keep it that way... although
.. I will be looking for a PA on cable off 4750..
Let's hit that 5330
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  #16626  
Old Dec 10, 2008 9:24am
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White House, Congress near deal on auto bailout
Wednesday December 10, 7:43 am ET
By Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writers
...

watch yen crosses, fiber and cable. above should push our crosses higher (imho)

discl: i may be biased since I already have open positions.
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  #16631  
Old Dec 10, 2008 10:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Heh me too. I've been biased for a few days now. You still in those longs?
I closed half pos. 15 min ago, rest at BE. I will have to step out for few hours, but hopefully, when I come back dow will plot 1hr pb off of 8500/8600. That's when I will buy again.
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  #16645  
Old Dec 10, 2008 3:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
You watching theese Mark?
Yes, I got back just in time for a touch.... and bought e/j, u/j and g/j back when dow touched 8650. Let's go dow, up, up to 9000 again.
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  #16646  
Old Dec 10, 2008 3:35pm
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uj, ej, gj pbs
looking for continuation higher, but I could be wrong...
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  #16650  
Old Dec 10, 2008 4:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Hi Raczekfx


Do the big BEOBs on your charts not concern you with these trades?

cheers


fxp
a little, that's why stops are below those pbs for now.
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  #16651  
Old Dec 10, 2008 4:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hey Rac

so what you're saying is if the us equities go up then the yen should weaken? therefore buy yen crosses also?

thanks

Simon
no, i'm only using them as a barometer for my trades. if speculators are buying equities, appetite can also appear for riskier currencies. not always true but it's just another tool in a box. it's worth observing different markets if you're a trader. after a while, things will jump out at you from your charts.
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  #16654  
Old Dec 10, 2008 5:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Ascending wedge with pin at 4H resistance. I don't like the left eye on the pin much. Basically, I would've liked to see the bulls take it a bit higher than they did.
... I've been looking for ... 1.33, later in a week....
.
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  #16661  
Old Dec 10, 2008 10:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
You got a nice 38.2 from the last swing right there too. if it breaks out today, we're definitely seeing 1.33...

From there, it's very typical to see double bottoms come back and test the apex... then resume back up... so you could have multiple entries here if you play your cards right... depending on if you wanna wait or scale into some positions... good times.
nice, why is it taking that long...
I'm going to scale out my posts. Someone's definitely watching and testing my patience...
Patience is paying off right now, very nice.
I'm not a big fan of scaling in; I usually buy 1/3 or half at ppz or when I get a 'green' light and the rest after PA forms (it could be on any tf)
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  #16663  
Old Dec 10, 2008 11:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Looking for some Bullish PA on this pair

Got divergence, breakout of PPZ would signal for aleast a short rally (b'coz the trade will be against the trend on daily)

ALM
It's interesting how this TL held. We have to break out sooner or later. It might be the beginning of trend reversal (watching daily) ...
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  #16707  
Old Dec 11, 2008 9:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canados View Post
how did you jump on this beautiful trade? what was the setup?

thanks
This 4hr IB setup on Dec5, which was also coincided my own 1hr Rdb.

I was also planing to buy break of that 4hr pin, which I thought was imminent, but since some people were short, I didn't want to mess up with their trades. Others (TV) don't want to know what will happen next unless there is 100% guarantee.... this is why I never explained my train of thoughts re: fiber

btw: this is PA thread not crystal balling thread...
I have also took small losses on yen crosses. Something's up...don't know if it's shakeout or something bigger...
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  #16709  
Old Dec 11, 2008 9:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canados View Post
It's clear now...I always enjoy your posts
I'm impressed for your trade management, you are still long despite those pullbacks. This is what I would like to be good at, I need to improve this aspect
I'm glad you find them useful sometimes...
I keep trade management simple and it's really easy. Try trading two lots. Once you make 'some' pips, close one and trail second(I do it manually) behind support/resistance area. You'd be surprised after few months...
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  #16710  
Old Dec 11, 2008 9:29am
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I'm watching Eur/Chf. Interest (monthly) area 1.58
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  #16711  
Old Dec 11, 2008 9:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by regsklongshort View Post
Good Question, I was also wondering what R-db meant?
I would guess it means "Reversal - Double Bottom"

Could someone with more experience please tell me if this is correct.
It's stands for 'Raczek's Dream-Boat'...
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  #16712  
Old Dec 11, 2008 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hey Rac,

so following on from using equities as a barometer...

have you noticed the ascending wedge on the dow? So i think that means we might end up with a breakout lower. So if it is in line with the previous move down, could we see the dow at 6600?

cheers

Simon
Everything is possible here.. If auto bailout fails, this might happen. I have a mixed feeling on bailout since I got this in my mailbox from a friend (kind of disturbing). Whatever happens, I'm sure, it will be trade-able..
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  #16731  
Old Dec 11, 2008 11:24pm
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anybody watches markets... nice volatility, 100pips swings on fiber every 5min. Yen's going wild....
It can't be auto bailout, can it...?
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  #16736  
Old Dec 11, 2008 11:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
Yeah buddy, I shorted EUR/JPY from 122.00, short EUR/CHF from 1.5783, and long Swiss Franc against the Danish Krone, CHF/DKK from 4.7193. AUD/JPY was the nice short though, I didn't get in. The loser part about it though, is that GFT has convenetly not offering service, so I am going to have to manage by phone.
You're going to be a rich man...
I only shorted good size of eur/chf at 1.5809 and 1.5797. Flat for now.

Eur/Jpy was very temping, especially after Mike's post.....
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  #16738  
Old Dec 12, 2008 12:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Hipster...

Hindsight is 20/20, so I am trying to guess what made you short the EURJPY at 122.00...

#1) PPZ at 122.00 that has held through the consolidation since October.

#2) 122.00 is close to the 50 Fib retrace line of the consolidation period.

#3) There appears to be a 2 bar high on the 4 hour chart (I am guessing this might be the R-DB set-up).

Though I might have been looking to go long after the consolidation.

Am I missing anything else?
Lol...
hint: check the low of a weekly bar printed on Nov 2nd....
What is that low?
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  #16740  
Old Dec 12, 2008 12:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
After calling GFT they were ONLY able to log that I wanted this trade to BE, ....
This is why I'm recording my screens while trading. You never know when you might need them.
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  #16773  
Old Dec 12, 2008 6:37am
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Wink a little psychology here...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Sometimes I wonder would this be the only thing I'll achieve in life? I am socially dumb, academically average, and a little short on finances. HUH! Never mind if i can do good on trading I will have found myself a reason to appreciate life.
I would start working on your psyche... right now, ghous!!!
If you continue to think like that (my apologies to say that), you will always be average and socially dumb. We are (or become) what we think we are.. PERIOD! It does not matter if you believe me or not... . In other words, why would you think, anything 'beyond average' should 'come' to you, if you perceive yourself 'average'?

There are some good psychology books out there... 'Freedom From The Ties That Bind' by guy finley was a good one, I once read. It was also recommended by J16

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Cannot imagine myself without trading now...is that addiction, ..... or something else...
This is no good. Do you live to trade or trade to live... ? This will make big difference in your life..
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  #16777  
Old Dec 12, 2008 9:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
I got so many conflicting reports from "top analysts" in big banks (from diff. countries). General impression - as fundamentals don't work now, nobody's sure what will happen next. With no sense of direction, "anything can happen and probably will"
Let's say.. I wouldn't listen to any analysts unless they are on my payroll.

you may feel there is no sense of direction, but keep in mind, trading in December is always like that.. It's Christmas time and liquidity is at premium. These are times when you can make or lose a fortune...
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  #16781  
Old Dec 12, 2008 9:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
That was my plan until i fell asleep..
Wake up to find i missed the retrace
It happens all the time..

Some nice price behavior on cable...
1 breakout and retest.
2 beovb
3 another test of ppz, up....
I can almost hear a symphony here...

C'mon fiber ...1.3450... everyone's waiting...
.
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  #16807  
Old Dec 13, 2008 12:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
... i am not sure if any of these guys took the trade you took. ...
I posted my setups on e/g in the PF on Friday and then executed my trades an hour or so later.
Traded a bit more that I usually do () at .8986 and added more at .8971.
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  #16819  
Old Dec 13, 2008 3:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
So will you just merely take a short when price approaches a key area for support and resistance? I can bet it is'nt as easy as tthis. .....
No, it's not that simple....
It's based on system that proved itself over time, but since it's not PA based, I will not discuss it here.
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  #16820  
Old Dec 13, 2008 3:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tokwanden View Post
...

p/s: raczekfx, I bet you are hawkishing this setup and I'm not surprise if you are already in
No, I'm actually bearish on u/chf...from 1.1950.. till about 1.12..
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  #16821  
Old Dec 13, 2008 3:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
He forgot to mention that whole "Oh, the BoJ jumped in at the 88 handle." That helps as well.
I was going to say the same thing..... Yes, they intervened.
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  #16824  
Old Dec 13, 2008 4:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Naijafx View Post
Hi all,

Just learning, i wanted to ask that how do u determine good location for pin bar;
...
Hey Mike
I will not talk about PB you posted, but if you want to know how I see a perfect pb location, I'll throw a chart. Again this is only my opinion (others might have different views, which is fine), but I use it in my position/swing trading on top of intraday plays. Notice the location of that PB. It's off of strong price pivot and 61fib confluence. If people were patient enough to wait for these setups, this thread would have 2 or less posts per day....

You only need a handful of these setups to double your large acc in a year.. Hope this helps.
R.
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  #16825  
Old Dec 13, 2008 4:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Hey Mike
...
Let's now extend this price pivot to the right a bit and go down to daily chart to see if we can find some good trades.... It's a trader's paradise if you know what you'll looking for....
Enjoy the rest of the weekends guys. Check your charts on higher TFs and get ready for a new week.
BTW. I don't think forex will be around when ghous gets to rusty's age, but we still have plenty of time....
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  #16833  
Old Dec 13, 2008 7:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
Yeah, don't listen to that old guy, he does'nt know what he is talking about.
That's right guys. Never, ever listen to rac. I'd even put him on the ignore list. He's a pretender....
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  #16864  
Old Dec 15, 2008 9:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Short off the all time high.
stop set to be. would like to see a retrace to a 50 fib around the ppz @ .8600
V.nice Jeff, you started trading like me...
I'm back in at .8990 (limit order)
You think you can hold it till .86?
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  #16865  
Old Dec 15, 2008 10:30am
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I'm about to close my scalp on fiber....
.
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  #16866  
Old Dec 15, 2008 10:36am
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This is what I'm 'eying' right now...
Where is PA here, anyone?
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  #16872  
Old Dec 15, 2008 11:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
...
PS:You r goooooooood man!! When i grow up i want to be like you!!
Oh no Matt.... I'm a monster ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
i took a 4h BUOB a while ago.Went up fast and bounced a bit back down now at first PPZ.
Yes, sir....
Someone had asked before about perfect location for a PB. How about good location for Buovb? All time low, tipple test that held.... This trade will rock imho Matt, hope you manage it well.
Quiet here today. It's time to some trading . See you later in the week.
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  #16875  
Old Dec 15, 2008 11:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Oh let me guess your system here...

up at the skies?!...Astronomy right?
...
you meant Astrology?.... That will do it. You know my secret now..
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  #16880  
Old Dec 15, 2008 11:35am
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Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
Yeah, I hope so too

I was going to say that i hope u manage it well too but never mind, you dont need luck or anything else.

See u later buddy.

Mat
No, I missed it Mat, but I'm all go on g/j, u/j and e/j (long that is). Will see what happens..
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  #16881  
Old Dec 15, 2008 11:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vourvoul View Post
I would ride it longer...
It's the end of the year and there will be more profit taking from the dollar bulls...
sure, everyone is different..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vourvoul View Post


What got you in that trade anyway?
blue rectangle
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  #16885  
Old Dec 15, 2008 12:00pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
No, I'm actually bearish on u/chf...from 1.1950.. till about 1.12..
not sure if anyone was in that trade, but I just took some profit and moving stop on the rest to 1.1875... (you never know).
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  #16887  
Old Dec 15, 2008 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by treuzelen View Post
when do you exactly enter on this one?
thx
I'm not in that trade, please check post #16880
If I was..., by my rules, I'd be most likely in around 1.7490.

If you're asking how to enter according to PA rules..?

1. from 1hr tf. you'd be in on the break of a pb around 1.7580
2. from 4h tf, you'd be in on a break of buovb around 1.7667
3. from daily tf, bar hasn't closed yet. We need to wait and see what we get.
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  #16890  
Old Dec 15, 2008 12:51pm
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Originally Posted by treuzelen View Post
Thx for your explanation, thats what I thought. But I have some difficulties with the desicion whether it will bounce or break. Sometimes it shoots a bit further and sometimes Price doesn't touch . How do you take this decision.
If your setup doesn't work out, you move on to the next trade. It's ok to miss a trade. I don't really want to talk about my way of trading here unless it's related to PA. I honestly don't know what will hold and what will break. The secret is contained in MM and TM, the rest is only probability and nothing else.
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  #16891  
Old Dec 15, 2008 12:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrius View Post
BTW, do you ever trade bars lower than H1?

Thank you
Yes, but all my big runners come from higher TFs
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  #16946  
Old Dec 16, 2008 11:15am
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
raczek... you put on a lot of trades, ya know that? You'd laugh at how many I do a month.
Lol...You're right about one thing... I put too many posts for sure.
See ya in the new year...
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  #17135  
Old Dec 18, 2008 9:30am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
i don't think i'll be closing a 400 pip trade if i see a pin bar on the 5M or 15M tf if i see one on the 4H it might signal something...
Amen brother, you're on your way to riches....

When I read some posts here by inexperienced, new traders, It's a sad feeling, because we know, where they headed long term......
Oh well, only 5% will will somehow make it, but within that 5, only .01% will strike it big. Many of the new faces came from different threads here to learn something new and they keep making same mistakes over and over.
Anyhow, Have a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a great New 2009. Hope there will be enough pips for everybody. I'm closing shop for 2008...
.
.
.
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  #17435  
Old Dec 22, 2008 11:37pm
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Originally Posted by sonicdeejay View Post
My SELL limit on EJ...
Any advice?

I had my EJ long on 50% retracement yesterday..(see arow)
Sell? without PA...and before Christmas...

.
How's 134 looking on your charts, or better yet 146?
.
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  #17460  
Old Dec 23, 2008 9:39am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Pin Bar looks good. Location is at a swing Low, at PPZ level, top of the PB is above a round number, etc. Price never broke the top of the Pin Bar so the trade would have never taken place. But what if Price did break the top? Let's look at the Weekly . .

The Weekly BEOB should have you thinking that the Daily Pin Bar may be going the other way and the strength of it would be weak.
we still have some room here... don't we...
who knows....
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  #17462  
Old Dec 23, 2008 11:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Nice chart there Raczek and some neat trade management.
Could you explain step by step how did you plan , execute and manage this trade from the beginning?

Sure....

1st short entry @ my favorite setup (it's been shown many times in this thread)
2nd short entry @after 4hr PB hinted possible shift in speculator's view on this cross (kind of what we see with fiber on daily right now)
3. initial stop few pips above 61fib (I almost got taken out)
4. manually trail stop above daily bar's high.
5. The most important one. Do not listen to others and their views....98% out of time... they are wrong...
If I read and contemplated on every post placed recently in this thread, I would get huge headache and would probably question myself every 5secs....
Have your game plan ready. Set your stops and partial profit (to reward yourself) and execute your plan.. It's as simple as that.

This year I slowly walked away from intra-day trading (I still do it a lot) and moved towards swing trading. My next swing positions are/will be on u/j, e/j, g/j, g/chf, e/u and eur/gpb. Have a good one
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  #17516  
Old Dec 25, 2008 12:06am
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It has nothing to do with feelings. I keep feelings reserved for the woman I love....

I don't pay much attention to 50 retrace (i think someone mentioned before, it's jacko stuff, but I'm no fan of that method). If we break 38 we're going down (at least that's my experience)

If you contemplate on blue rectangles, you shall find the answer to your TP1 question.
Cheers,

R

Quote:
Originally Posted by byorkFX View Post
Raczekfx,

I wish I had the confidence to stay in the trades as long as you do. I've looked around and didn't seem to see this asked, but please forgive me if it has been. Can I ask why you have your TP1 point marked where it is (EUR/CHF) and not up by the 50.0 retrace on your chart (sorry to go back so many posts with the chart). I know that part of this is just having a good feeling for the markets and price action (experience), but I had my TP1 marked around the 50.0 point on the chart since it was the 50% and there were bar highs sitting...
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  #17523  
Old Dec 25, 2008 10:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hey Rac,


I have a question abt your Eur/chf trade though. ..What convinced you that the daily is gonna close the way it did?

...
What i know off is that this is what is often termed "one of the biggest mistakes of a trader" that he wants to anticipate something to happen in future for which he acts in the present I am obviously not saying that you are making a mistake (how dare i! ), i am just curious how you get out of this?
I haven't changed my long term trading method in almost two years. It's all in this thread.
This is not jankone's 5min style, so it's probably boring for many of you, but it works for me..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8096
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15877
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15889
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15799
the one above triggered 2000 pips move north
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15789
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15662
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15636
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  #17559  
Old Dec 27, 2008 12:22pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post

Ok I had one more question, I am new to NOn-fx marlets like the US stock indices (The S&P, DOW etc) how do you correlate them, in one of your posts above i saw you mentioening that the S&P will affect the $ and the Yen? The $ is understandable (stronger stock markets stronger currency) but why the yen, and is the corelation inverse or direct?
it's hard to explain in few words; best way is to have all charts of interest on your screen at all times and observe how one affects another. This is what I did for few years and now they make sense (sometimes). To really simplify the answer, I'll take a shortcut ... You can look at the sp and dow as a barometer for 'carry trades'. If those go up, speculators must feel good about economy in general. What happens next...? More speculators will feel good about putting their money in riskier crosses (yen as an e.g.) At the same time BOJ will add fuel to a fire and start selling yen (don't forget Japan without export will not exist, so in their best interest is to keep yen weak). They play their own little game with speculators and unless you traded yen for few years, their action will not make sense. That's why is better(read safer) to stick to PA and don't pay attention to correlation. I'll give you a little hint here anyways...., I will never go long on yen crosses when Dow or SP approaches resistance with some kind of confluence, I might go short instead without waiting for PA..

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
..Funny how this all looks like you are reading tea leaves to many - until they start a practice of it. Then it is like an open book.
My younger brother used to think the same and.... two weeks ago he finally quit his career to become a trader.
For some it will take few months to see big foot prints. For some it will take years.., some will never see them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TradeStar View Post

One more question:

1.5540 happens to be the resistence point on the previous leg and roughly same as 23% retracement. Any reason why this was not your first Take profit area.
5540 is also a daily price pivot, but I tend to put more weight to areas between 38-50 and 50-61. I guess different strokes for different folks plays a role here...
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  #17586  
Old Dec 29, 2008 1:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
If you must trade, it looks like a valid setup for a short. Fib 61 with minor ppz. However, watch the 38.2 area with bar highs. I am personally biased short being this daily pin has not been invalidated. When ~1.4720 is broke cleanly, then I would consider longs and even then I would be hesitant.
This 'small' setup will bring fiber to 1.20 in months (weeks) to come...
Just an opinion off course...

Have a great 2009
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  #17594  
Old Dec 29, 2008 3:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djambazov84 View Post
I`m just a bit weary about this trendline which refuses to break...yet
I'm weary about the state of EU economy..., which is not what trichet wishes it to be....
There is absolutely no reason to stop rates at 2% today and once they will be forced to cut it again, when no one anticipates it..... (kaboom.. and welcome 1.11)
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  #17612  
Old Dec 29, 2008 8:30pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post


Still holding the eurochf short.
My final tp was hit, so I'm flat for the moment. If it wasn't for the the 'slow season', I'd probably reversed at that tp. Now it's a waiting game, but I tend to think we're going up to old tp1 from here..
.. also looking at g/chf
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  #17614  
Old Dec 29, 2008 8:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
With the exception of the gbp/chf comment, I was about to post an almost identical post in response to Hips. LOL

Out with limit at 1.4810. Has been a nice easy trade to manage over the holiday. Text book.
LOL.. if all of them were that easy to manage, trading would be much simpler.. I'm 'envy' of my trading buddy, he was in the same trade (with almost identical entry/tps - what the skype is for..lol), but he trades much, much 'heavier' at $30/ps.
One day.... one day.... we'll get there.

I'm still waiting for xxx/jpy...., c'mon boj, we know you have your fingers on the button... just press it..
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  #17656  
Old Dec 30, 2008 10:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
I found this one good setup for going long. I would like to see the current bar close on the upper half at least, strong bullish sign.
not sure if that would be a strong bull sign. It would be just an Ibar. Right now price is between my short, daily TPs and will probably stay there for some time. From a 'micro' point of view, an hourly pb is still valid and a second test (blue rect) of tp2 would be a trigger for my long entry, should I chose to trade in the early EST hours.
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  #17657  
Old Dec 30, 2008 10:52am
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waiting for trichet ...
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  #17663  
Old Dec 30, 2008 2:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Your at it again I see. dont you ever take a break.
I'm, but can't help it when alarms show up on my BB..... I hope to show you my e/cad 'green' charts sometimes in mid Jan...09

@ghous: don't exaggerate my friend. If that was even half true, I would not be hanging around FF...lol

@hipster: yes, I see euro being very weak next year. time will tell.
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  #17692  
Old Dec 31, 2008 10:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
The BEOB is at a swing high, with a double top and heavily loaded with divergence on the daily as well as the weekly (refer to Raczekfx's post a few posts back) IMO currntly the best setup on the higher tfs

..
Regards
Ghous.
Nice post ghous..

I have a NewYear present for you.
I shorted eurcad yesterday (It's hard not to trade when something comes to you on a golden plate...lol) and created quick video briefly explaining my thought process.
If interested, you can watch it HERE... I'll keep it there for few days.
Cheers and have a great and pipping 2009 all!
.
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  #17697  
Old Dec 31, 2008 11:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Went for Eur/gbp, Gbp/chf, and Chf/jpy instead, will
Interesting.... check my charts....lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I'll go through your video, thankyou for the woderful gift! I was least expecting it

Regards,
Ghous.
NP..
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  #17707  
Old Dec 31, 2008 3:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Very good video Raczek. Hope to see more of these next year. I'd really like to know how do you spread the risk on those trades. How much do you risk on short daytrades and those longer ones?
Np Gh, Carl,

For risky trades (no pa confirmation, confluence, crystal ball in repair shop, etc) I keep initial stop below/above swing high and risk 1%. For good probability trades (last daily PB on us/cad at a triple top, e/chf short on Dec16 at solid ppz, fibs, emas, etc. confluence) rule for the stop is the same, but I may use 3 and sometimes 5% risk

stop posting, go partying guys...
heja
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  #17775  
Old Jan 3, 2009 12:48pm
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Hi raczekfx, couple of questions:

GBPCHF--> IB, why did you enter before the brake of High of IB (left bar)? I thought right bar must brake left bar and IB's high to be a valid set up???
I entered on a break of 4-4hr bar consolidation with sl few pips below them
Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
EURGBP--> DBH, Can you explain why did you enter here please?

Thank you...
similar situation as explained in my eucad video but on a micro scale (4hr). You should notice divergence, bar consolidation and inability of breaking .98 level. Add to it what I said about euro (video) and you have a action plan ready. The rest is psychology and MM
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  #17776  
Old Jan 3, 2009 1:20pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hey Raczekfx, I wanted some help...

I took my Gbp/chf trade somewhere around where you took it, and since you're a master at money managment perhaps you can assist me with this typical case.

The trade went on close to +250, I know you booked your profits earlier than this But I planned on my first Tp as the 1.62 level based entirely off the daily.

What happened here was on seeing a retracment from +250 i moved my stop to breakeven (hod to re-enter off the 4H Pb) and obviosuly got stopped out.
......
There is never one answer that is right and I'm not inside your head, so I could be wrong, but I'll try.

1. Rule of thumb is that if you enter on 4hr you should exit on 4hr. By that rule my initial stop would be around 1.5150 (entry 1.5340) and I would be out 1.57. To be more precise, I'd be out of half at 57 and would most likely move my stop just below 4hr bar prior my entry.
Having said all that, I'm haven't book any profit on this trade just yet as I'm treating this as a swing trade with potential of 2000 pips. That's right, 2000 over the next 4 weeks or so. Would I be able to make those pips by trading 5min charts and look for divergence and pins on them? Off course not, but I don't want to argue here about nonsense of chasing 20pips per trade, even if you get to a point where you're able to trade $1000pips per point. Simple math and logic should tell you what path to take.

2. You have taken a trade during a time where PA doesn't always make sense and often large price swings will shake people off their trades before they come back from their trip to a washroom.

3. I recall from my experience that after taking a trade on 4hr chart, I would go back and read some posts with 1hr or 15min charts showing opposite setups and I would question my 4hr entry. Never do this if you want to stay sane. I would only do that if price is ranging between two ppzs and price is approaching one of the boundaries. To simplify: If you took g/chf on daily and I'm writing some nonsense on FF with 4hr chart, don't even bother reading it...
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  #17777  
Old Jan 3, 2009 1:24pm
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.... cont. from previous post

If weekly bar breaks, I'll add to it and will be treating this trade as a swing trade with targets as shown....
.
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  #17779  
Old Jan 3, 2009 1:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
I see...So much learning to see this stuff like you master see.
lol. you guys....

You are all masters of your own destiny and don't even know that. Once you realize that, quite a few light bulbs will be turned on
The key to your own success is in you and NOT with us...
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  #17783  
Old Jan 3, 2009 2:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I can't speak for racekfx but I bet you he didn't start at this level of trading in the beginning.

I sure it was many years of studying S/R levels (PPZs), Price Action and their supporting confluences that he begin fine tuning this type of trading.
This is very true. I have gone through many accounts and wasted money on useless books, systems, etc... (since 1995)
Meeting James16 changed all that.

The rest is just as Jarroo mentioned, fine tuning with some practice and practice and practice.... on larger TFs.
.
.

Last edited by raczekfx, Jan 3, 2009 2:27pm
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  #17816  
Old Jan 5, 2009 8:25am
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fiber is about 100ps before target...
.
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  #17817  
Old Jan 5, 2009 8:54am
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Originally Posted by johnbaem View Post
Hey guys,

Any of you watch pin at 4H GBP/USD??? The tested kinda low on the next bars.. But it remains strong..

We shall see BEOVB if anything works well than..
I was long on the close of that 4hr bar last night. Price moved 100ps in favor (exactly where pf'ers would expect it to stop), but never reached my extended tp. Closed it at BE for now..
Bias: long unless 4350 gives up
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  #17818  
Old Jan 5, 2009 9:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
.... cont. from previous post

If weekly bar breaks, I'll add to it and will be treating this trade as a swing trade with targets as shown....
.
g/chf
Price hit turbulence area, (where some could take nice profit) and will probably stay there for some time, unless cable decides to shoot up....
Some could expect for price to move back to 5810/5910 area before marching higher. We shall see... I'm very happy with overnight move...!

eu/cad
so far, so good. Price stopped 100ps shy of tp1 from my previous posts..
Nice move since short setup triggered.... exactly 900ps

I think that's it from me for today... my older son wants to see pianos...
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  #17842  
Old Jan 5, 2009 1:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
Looks like the turbulence on the Gbp/Chf is clearing up rapidly
you can only smile when things exceed your expectations...
daily bar worth 700ps..., not bad, time to move stops or take some profit...
I don't see it clearing 6280 today.
Even my g/u target was hit (without me as I closed it this morning)
E/Cad just hit TP1... what a good way to start the new year, 1100 ps in 3 days (not counting sunday bar).
And I still remember when I was chasing 25ps per trade.. that was stressful
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  #17844  
Old Jan 5, 2009 1:38pm
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Hi alter, thanks for the replay, I noticed too, but I consider TP 1 (acting as s/r line several times ), more powerfull place for price to go.

anyone has something to comment?
mbqb11, ghous, raczekfx, jarroo or any other experienced traders here?

Thanks in advance....
1.1280 - 1.1380s my long TP and reverse area
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  #17847  
Old Jan 5, 2009 1:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
taking profit is never a bad idea and yes I am smiling. BTW The e/cad trade I'm looking for a retrace of the move to tp1 to add. 09 is coming in fine as wine.
Seeing the magnitude of this move, I wouldn't count on it. If what I'm hearing about fiber is true, we get to tp2 much sooner that I had on drawing board...
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  #17861  
Old Jan 5, 2009 3:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Thank you raczekfx, could you post a chart explaining why you would choose that take profit area please???

Take care...
.
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  #17872  
Old Jan 5, 2009 6:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Ok.

For my futher trades, what should I do? For example if I open a position based on an daily chart, how can I manage it? looking dailys, 4H, weekly or montly or combinations of them?
Short answer is: I don't know, I'm not you.

I wouldn't want to turn this discussion into a trading course. No time, no place for this on an open and public forum....
Trades I'm posting from time to time are for illustration/entertainment purposes only. Some people might get inspired and something clicks,... that's great.
As arcus already mentioned, the topic has been covered here many times.

Monthly support is stronger than weekly, weekly than daily and so on. Think how can you use that information to benefit your trading. The easiest way is to go into a trade on PA and exit on opposite PA and not TPs.
What people seem to forget is that james16chart thread is not a system. It is a method. You WILL have to do some work here and come up with your own system using j16 method. This is what I did, but since it's not based on 'clean' PA entries, I have no plans/nor want to mess this thread up.

Best of luck trujillo with your journey. Patience and hard work should pay off sooner or later, but it has to be YOUR OWN work.
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  #17929  
Old Jan 6, 2009 1:16pm
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Anyone still in the G/C???? I'm still 1/2 in. Coming up to a PPZ, not sure if it can go more. 1.6000 has been broken and I'm thinking 1.7525 is the next stop if it breaks 1.6720 ish area...
Off course, there is absolutely no reason we should not hit that TP1 now. We have cleared Dec21 weekly bar... . It's just a matter of time. Would I be entering now? Probably not..
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  #17934  
Old Jan 6, 2009 1:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Interesting.... check my charts....lol


NP..
closing 3/4 of my e/g as I type...
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  #17942  
Old Jan 6, 2009 3:34pm
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
I was just thinking about adding to my position then I read this. You say you wouldn't be entering now, is that because it has moved so much with little retrace? If price has a shot at the 1.92 level, we are talking almost 2500 pips from where we are now. For me, I'd risk a few hundred pips for a few thousand. I'll keep watching the charts and see if there is pull back and with some PA signals long. Unless there is a blaring reason not to, or I'm making an obvious mistake, anyone please feel free to comment. Here to learn and grow.
wouldn't that feel like buying the top right now? It's ok to miss a trade or lose a trade, but It's not ok to lose a trade on feelings and greed.
Even though price might eventually hit 1.74, it might also reverse 500ps or so, taking out all the little guys like us. That's why you always need to have a plan to scale in and out, and follow it.

Below is an example of two of my plans for scaling in, once I determine short/long term trend.

1. add on break outs (more aggressive-red arrows)
2. add on after breakouts and retest (conservative-red arrows in squares)

As you probably noticed on the chart, using conservative approach, I'd only add once and by using breakout method (whatever tf you like), I'd have 4 positions running.
Different styles suit different personalities, but you still must have a plan. Without it, it would be chaos trading..
Hope this helps..

R
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  #17960  
Old Jan 6, 2009 8:25pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Here is one that we can chew the fat on. I have an 2 entries short at 138.85. My SL is 140.95. The thick horizontal yellow line is the daily PPZ. The green horizontal lines are the 4HR PPZ's. I am using about half the usual equity risk as I would have rather had the PB nose climb slightly higher. However, I do like the fact that the PB printed right at the 100% fib on the daily for retracement after the ride up for a couple of days. This might be the only chance to short before this pair moves north with a vengence.
I really would like g/j to test 135 (orange line)before marching higher, but for some reason, I'm thinking, we might hit 144/46 first..
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  #17974  
Old Jan 6, 2009 11:32pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Interesting Rac...

I am looking at 0.86 as somewhat my final target...
.
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  #18017  
Old Jan 7, 2009 9:23am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
1.1280 - 1.1380s my long TP and reverse area
Missed 1280, by 2 points... I guess, you can't have them all.... next..
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  #18024  
Old Jan 7, 2009 10:18am
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Hi Raczek

Did you put your SL under daily PB?
I'm not in this trade.
My limit sell order never triggered. If it did, my initial stop would have been above 50fib.
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  #18036  
Old Jan 7, 2009 12:22pm
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Very good video Raczek. Hope to see more of these next year. I'd really like to know how do you spread the risk on those trades. How much do you risk on short daytrades and those longer ones?
I have updated this trade.
It's probably the last vid. for a while, I post on the public forum. Sorry.. getting busy lately ..
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  #18055  
Old Jan 7, 2009 2:59pm
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
... You got very lucky there
lol.. you need some luck in this business, I'd say about 4%.....
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  #18057  
Old Jan 7, 2009 3:15pm
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Originally Posted by leis View Post
That is one gem of a video rac - thanks for sharing your insight. With yr postings and video here and in the private forum looking for breakout set ups (plus for me using MACD for divergence)and the power of price action have made this all make sense. As jim says these opportunities are all over just watch and wait for those sniper set ups to appear. Whilst posting respect and appreciation to jim, ghous, jaroo and mike etc. what goes round......
Np leis... thanks guys.

PA with divergence is very powerful, add confluence..... and you only have to trade few times a year.
This was the reason for posting my live, longer term (few days..lol) trades on this forum. Hopefully, it will get some people on a proper track and gives them something to look forward to.

(general comment for new traders only, below)
5min charts are good for pros only; you can make lot's of quick money when you know what your doing and your pip value is $100 or so, but when I see new traders trying to beat the market on that tf, It's like seeing fish on the bottom of a dry lake. Your money supply will dry up very quickly, trust me. But what the heck... it's your money, life and future, do whatever you want with it. Life is a learning journey...

Here a quick intra day trade I'm in right now
.
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  #18064  
Old Jan 7, 2009 6:08pm
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Originally Posted by soltani View Post

Raczekfx, if you don't mind me asking, what was your reasoning behind this trade? .
Break up and retest of that 4hr bar consolidation area. I went long on retest..
Since this was short term/intra day trade, it is now closed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post
Hi guys what do you think about this Eur/Aud Daily
It looks like a DBLHC to me..
Not quite sure about the PPZ level though...
.
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  #18089  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:24am
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Default uj

.
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  #18091  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:27am
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Default eu

.
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  #18095  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:38am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post

Here's a quick intra day trade I'm in right now
.
uc
updated chart from yesterday...
even without pa one can trade successfully knowing where support and resistance is... .It takes time and practice, but, what does not?
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  #18098  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:43am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I closed mine after the break of the 4H trendline. May consider a re-entry if we see a test of 1.385

Regards,
Ghous.
I did 3/4 of mine in my favorite rectangle from post #18091
Same area acted as short term longs.
don't count much on fireworks before nf. I would rather expect gradual decline on us crosses till 8:30est tomorrow...
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  #18101  
Old Jan 8, 2009 10:01am
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Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
.. I personally waiting for a thrust up past 1.3800 to ~1.3820. .
It might be just me, but judging from previous 'observations', I don't think it's going to happen (at least not today).

I hope not...lol. I'm 'fair' size u/j long since 90.94
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  #18103  
Old Jan 8, 2009 10:12am
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Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
We will see, I watched that too, but did not pull it. Many pips to you if it runs.
Same to you D... I 'almost' bought cable 1.5045, right after the rate annc....
This is what happens when you make vids, answer emails and trade at the same time. I lost focus...., BUT there will be plenty of more...
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  #18106  
Old Jan 8, 2009 10:45am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
hey rac

looks like a chance to add to your short on the eurcad ????

BEOB off daily PPZ and 38 fib

or are you expecting it to go higher yet?
don't really know. I trade $cad crosses in conjunction with oil and the latter is not showing any strength yet..... If price doesn't gets any higher and we'll get daily pb on eucad, I'll draft an action plan.
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  #18126  
Old Jan 8, 2009 3:32pm
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eu
added
.
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  #18127  
Old Jan 8, 2009 3:34pm
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ecad
added
.
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  #18128  
Old Jan 8, 2009 3:48pm
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uscad
.
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  #18132  
Old Jan 8, 2009 4:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Raczek, if I may ask you. What made you entered on this one? (Not the initial entry, but the sell stop.) If I guess, break of PPZ (weekly and monthly PPZ)? Thanks!
Break of TDBL (three daily bar low)
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  #18149  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
you will sell a pulback of this ppz with sl at the top of the pb?

thanks in advance.
no, pure break

Quote:
Originally Posted by djambazov84 View Post
Hey racz,

If you dont mind me asking you this question as I am also in the E/U trade.

What do you think about an eventual reversal during London session as it happens all the time ...
I no longer let my brain interfering with my trading. When I used to think, I was only able to make 20-30pips/per move.
THINKING KILLS traders.
You'll never finish questioning yourself.

I wait for a setup, take a trade, set my stops and let the trade flow....

For setup/targets on my e/u trade please refer to post #18091
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  #18164  
Old Jan 9, 2009 9:04am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
eu
added
.
added more

other positions:
shorted gu
long uj
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  #18167  
Old Jan 9, 2009 9:16am
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Originally Posted by jicjoc View Post
You da man rac!
Im short on eu too since that 4hr PB. Do you move to BE or anything once you've gotten a certain amount of profit?
Thanks again
John
2 eu pos were added on 4hr timeframe (before pa confirmation -don't ask )
I will manually trail stop 2bars (4hr) behind
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  #18169  
Old Jan 9, 2009 9:24am
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Originally Posted by canados View Post
did you wait today's news to enter long usdjpy? You showed us the signal yesterday
i don't recall showing you any signals .
today was a buy limit @ 90.65 triggered in early morning. half pos were intra day longs, closed when u/j hit res. @91.50. rest at BE, as I don't like the shape of weekly bar...
have a good weekend. I'm heading out to hit the slopes..
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  #18344  
Old Jan 12, 2009 2:51pm
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quick (14hrs) intra-day short
.
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  #18353  
Old Jan 12, 2009 4:25pm
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Originally Posted by mirex View Post
silly question, but the weekly, buob nullify the pinbar 2 week ago right?

and this week is just a retrace of the buob of last week and PA is telling it to go north with SL below that purple line you draw?
Not sure if it does or not, I simply was looking for a retrace of that weekly BUbar, hence the short trade. Purple line is just a daily ppz.
We could start getting higher lows and higher highs, or price could take a short break around 50/61 before going lower. We'll find out in the next few days. Nothing is a given....
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  #18387  
Old Jan 12, 2009 6:40pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Love it, It's Sold....
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  #18391  
Old Jan 12, 2009 7:03pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Can I come and stay mate?
anytime mate....
that place looks big enough for entire pf crew.
I'm not a big fan of snakes though..., must've been bitten or eaten in my past life..
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  #18397  
Old Jan 12, 2009 7:46pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Looks like you got your wish. We might even test the low from 12.30.2008.
I'd prefer to look at them as high probability areas, not wishes... 144 shall be next then..(?) we'll see .

we might. i'm just watching cable for clues. when it reverses, g/j will spring up quickly..
I'm looking at 130.80/131.40 as an exhaustion area now.
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  #18483  
Old Jan 13, 2009 5:10pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I have a feeling that raczek may have a Buy in that area. lol

.
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  #18493  
Old Jan 13, 2009 6:03pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
... Just to let other people know that these are risky trades and they are not based on any obvious PA.
They're very risky and need to be played close to chest...
It's much, much safer to wait for PA. e.g. weekly PB on Gbp/Chf was worth 1200ps.
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  #18593  
Old Jan 14, 2009 12:06pm
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Default flat on fiber for now

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
.
another 'horse' has come home
It took some time, but the end results is what we're looking for.
(PA+psychology+strong desire to learn and succeed + long TF) = $ in your account.
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  #18595  
Old Jan 14, 2009 12:14pm
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watching..
.
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  #18611  
Old Jan 14, 2009 5:21pm
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a continuation lower?
maybe, maybe not.
Now your risk, use proper MM and treat this as business.
.
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  #18618  
Old Jan 14, 2009 5:46pm
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a bar like the last one, would be nice. I'd be happy with one on 4hr as well..
.
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  #18626  
Old Jan 14, 2009 7:33pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Doesn't the stronger looking oil chart indicate that the CAD will get stronger v. the USD (and maybe even the EUR)?
You are correct, given 35.50 will hold another ambush. If it does, we could see a daily pb on us/cad tomorrow.
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  #18684  
Old Jan 15, 2009 10:38am
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dow futures.

where do we go from here..
Some one just emailed me that dow's going to finish the day with a PB..

That would be voodoo... .

Whatever happens, one thing is certain, we're at important resistance level, so let's push those yen crosses up from here.... enough of blood.
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  #18686  
Old Jan 15, 2009 10:50am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
...

so let's push those yen crosses up from here.... enough of blood.
... and they listened....
I think I call it the week and let it roll till at least 136
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  #18688  
Old Jan 15, 2009 10:58am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I caught 129.40. Two pips better then last time. I getting better. lol
That's because you spend too much time typing here...
I posted my entries in the pf.
Perhaps we should exchange IMs, so one of us can watch the charts and singal...
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  #18693  
Old Jan 15, 2009 12:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shermenator View Post
hope you guys took this trade lol ...trading is simply easy lol...
nope.
I'm long from 6250 and yes trading is simple when you know yourself.

Isn't $149/month a bit too pricey? It is more that j16pf...for $ sake ..
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  #18709  
Old Jan 15, 2009 4:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Hey Mark,

crystal ball seems to be working again lol
still 2hs to go...

RM
nope, other paranormal stuff.
It happens all the time, whenever I draw a chart...., price follows soon after...
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  #18711  
Old Jan 15, 2009 4:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
...

Some one just emailed me that dow's going to finish the day with a PB..

That would be voodoo... .
scary, scary raczekfx....

If you learn the material in this thread alone plus do some work on your own, sky will be the limit..... (you don't have to trust me... )
.
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  #18723  
Old Jan 15, 2009 5:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G550 View Post
Question for ya, Rac. A bullish outside bar has already formed on dollar/yen. Given the pin on the dow, a break of the pin higher would typically yield strength in the dollar/yen. Would you consider going long on the next daily candle to be risky? Or would you wait for what will be today's high to form then go long above that?

Also, where do you get your dow charts?
well, I'm already in g/j, g/u, e/j and u/j from the bottom of today's swing low (recorded in the pf), but I will consider adding more when proper PA forms.
fxpro - strictly for charting on FF
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  #18728  
Old Jan 15, 2009 5:53pm
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Originally Posted by G550 View Post
Would you not consider the BUOB as proper PA?
not until it break to the upside. And this one could be tricky, price is sitting right on ppz, so I might wait for break and pullback.
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  #18745  
Old Jan 15, 2009 9:41pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
... and they listened....
I think I call it the week and let it roll till at least 136
300 more to go;
134.50 looks like a better tp for euro session
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  #18763  
Old Jan 15, 2009 11:42pm
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Originally Posted by osyrius View Post
Hey Raczek,

...
About this GY trade, would you mind clarifying to me why did you bet on a
I created short video describing my thought process behind that trade, but only sent it to few close friends. Trading that way can do more harm than good to new traders hence my hesitation about making it public.

But here are some things to think about while looking at this g/j trade.

Earlier this morning I posted dow's future chart showing very important (imo) resistance level. No one asked about it, so I never bothered explaining , what I was going to do about it...

Have you caught my pb on ucad, I posted yesterday ? I also hinted Dow's daily pinbar today .

If someone can read between the lines, he/she would've seen me betting on $ weakness starting today.
Simply saying, cable gets stronger, dow stops bleeding, geppy goes up.

Guys trading is an art, but it's also fun. I haven't met many poeple on my path, who would appreaciate things, they received on a golden plate. If you watch a good chef and then you prepare your own meals, don't they taste better than TVdinners...?

"...Chasing Livermore..." reminiscences... is a great book full of tips
Appologies for being too cryptic for some..

r
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  #18764  
Old Jan 15, 2009 11:43pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Raczek uses PA as confirmation of his entry, instead of how we use PA to confirm an entry. lol (Did I say that right . . lol)
you're so right Jim..
I always do everything backwards...

just like here:
.
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  #18846  
Old Jan 16, 2009 8:50am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
allright rac this worship stuff is just way to much so i gotta come clean.

truth is rac's entries come from me via email.

sorry rac but my ego just couldnt take it anymore.

Fine, cover has been blown...

The story is: I was stocking James for two years... cleaning his house, cooking meals, taking dogs out and all I could see, was a closed door to his office with a big sign "trading in progress, no entry for rac"

The break through came about a year ago, when he allowed me to synch his PCs with mine. Ever since, whenever he trades, the very same trades are automatically opened on my platform. All I do is watch and post on FF

Sorry to disappoint guys..
r
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  #18883  
Old Jan 16, 2009 12:40pm
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gu, uj, gj
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  #18885  
Old Jan 16, 2009 1:09pm
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NJ - daily pin,
...retrace, price pivot, 50fib ret, pin on 1hr off of ppz....Kaboom ... up?
.
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  #18888  
Old Jan 16, 2009 1:15pm
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uj,
daily break out, retrace to price pivot, pin on 1hr, Kabooom... up
Confidence comes with practice, practice and practice. If you're wrong, you're wrong. That's what the stops are for....

Now let's all of us push that dow, so we can close at least 30-60 pips on the plus side and send that yen when it belongs....

Have a great weekend guys.
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  #19054  
Old Jan 19, 2009 11:35am
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Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi Guys,

Anyone thinking of taking U/J or E/J weekly pins if they break? Or anyone stalking other trades on the weeklies? There were some great A+ trades on weeklies last week, so I am looking at them with renewed enthusiasm! Am trying to develop my discipline so have no traded today yet as no A+ setups on my charts - this is a positive step in my development!

Good trading all,

berti
if you're talking about long then yes. I just closed my my intraday shorts since (sunday gap open) on e/j, g/j and looking for a sign of exhaustion to go long uj, ej, gj and gu again
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  #19059  
Old Jan 19, 2009 12:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Raczek,

Thaqnks for your reply. What indicatorsinformation do you consider when you look for signs of 'exhaustion'? Do you merely consider the PA?
a bounce forming triple bottom on smaller tf around ppz would be one of them.
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  #19067  
Old Jan 19, 2009 2:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
I'm not sure what a tml is but here's what i see..
a triple top, price exhaustion (for bertie) at the top (short trade from last night)... a beauty...
you can throw mac-d to add to your confidence....(what do you see?)
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  #19071  
Old Jan 19, 2009 3:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Here is a pic of the U/J pair. I'm not saying is a great pin to play (just a picture for an example to work off of), I'm more interested in how to analyze the gap up and subsequent move down and if the move up breaking the Pin Bar would still be play with J16 rules /
guidelines
.
this is how I see it and/or play it or at least plan for it.

Last week: price breaks a daily ppz and tests it twice (retraces back to it)
Sunday: price gaps, but is unable to hold grounds and retraces back to it.(triple bottom at ppz?)
Tomorrow: obama gets inaugurated. people/traders look at positives and hope for new beginning. Dow rallies. If UJ breaks higher, it hits 91.70, slows down at 94 and eventually at 97.
Whatever happens it's wise to have stops in place. Mine is at 89.60 at the moment.
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  #19107  
Old Jan 20, 2009 5:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackinc View Post
I'd consider this pin in traffic, despite its shape looking pretty good. Because of the areas it was gonna run into as soon as it broke.
I don't consider it being in traffic. But even if someone considered its shape looking good, you'd have to note that its open and close were below broken ppz, hence chances of it work out (evenif it broke to the upside) were slim.
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  #19109  
Old Jan 20, 2009 5:34am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I don't consider it being in traffic. But even if someone considered its shape looking good, you'd have to note that its open and close were below broken ppz, hence chances of it work out (evenif it broke to the upside) were slim.
exactly the same scenario with g/j. Should that pin's opened and close was above purple line, we'd be probably testing 130 right now...
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  #19125  
Old Jan 20, 2009 8:50am
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Originally Posted by RedA View Post
Hi Rec,
Nice entry. I see the divergence. But I have not seen a pin bar to trigger this reversal. Don't dare to since I was burnt yesterday. Can you explain your entry based on what trigger and the target? Thanks.
not sure if that was nice entry, but regardless it was part of a plan, which is based on aggressive method taking long term ppzs into consideration. If we get 4hr pb, I'll add it on its 'up-break' and the first logical target will be 1.4370 (ppz)
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  #19126  
Old Jan 20, 2009 8:58am
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Originally Posted by Blackinc View Post
Can understand you buying GBP down there.

Don't understand the GBP/JPY crystal ball man. Other than your reasoning before on everyone loving obama and realising what a bargain the yen is..

Love to hear some more on that if you've got a minute to divulge?
not exactly. I trade yen crosses together with us based crosses.
To really simplify the answer I will say that if I get a go on cable and 'price in' equity direction/move, I will also trade pound/yen.

ps. funny, out of about 50 PMs, almost 90% of 'respondents' didn't understand it either... .
I hope we get 4hr pb on g/j. I'll add more...
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  #19226  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:35am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
for years those of us that have been stockpiling food and ways to protect our families in case of a worst case scenario have been called every name in the book. i hope that day never comes and that all of my stockpiles are wasted money...truly i do...but im prepared and thats all that matters to me.

jim
It would be scary time, if it ever had to use it.
Perhaps it's time to buy some property far away.. Australia, NZ...?
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  #19394  
Old Jan 22, 2009 5:04pm
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while waiting for yen crosses to break higher...

e/g
.
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  #19447  
Old Jan 23, 2009 9:18am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Anybody seen raczek?
Hey Jim,
I'm in long from 3535. Got a nice pb off a round number, but I'm to post the TF. Closed previous cable longs at a loss.

G/J worked out ok, but only because I hedged it....(short leg already closed)

Until we get some nice PA on a daily, I trade ppz ranges. It's a torture when you have to watch the screens every hour or so...

I believe yen crosses will hit (if not already) the bottom today, so did Dow futures. We'll see.


p.s. It would be very nice to get another daily pb on cable and geppy today, and then break of them next week for a test of 1.44.
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  #19449  
Old Jan 23, 2009 9:38am
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..also looking for a fiber to start appreciating (and perhaps reversing its down trend) from that weekly ppz.
I have some new commitments here in the north pole.. so I won't be able to post as much for some time...
Trade wisely...
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  #19482  
Old Jan 23, 2009 4:03pm
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Originally Posted by encul?e View Post
This worries me slightly.
both fiber and swissy have about 70-80 pips to go before they may encounter some difficulties (imo)
.
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  #19537  
Old Jan 25, 2009 11:44pm
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uj
.
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  #19540  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikki View Post
Waiting a PA to confirm, or only Divergence+S/R?

No...,
I'm already in from 'somewhere' in the blue rectangle. Will keep scaling in on PA
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
oi.... stop teasing....
.... you're bad Jeff...
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  #19572  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:12pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Nah! He's absolutely correct...

Is there any part of this crazy market you don't catch, what's your monthly income...20,000 pips or so??
Of course...., when I sleep... or I'm tired or when I lose focus while spending too much time on FF...

Sometimes it is 4000, sometimes 0, sometimes -200.
Pips don't matter any longer. It's knowing your risk and size (not that size ) that matters.
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  #19573  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:15pm
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we broke one level so we already know our next range we'll be taking action in..
.
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  #19575  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:24pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
we broke one level so we already know our next range we'll be taking action in..
.
same with cable,
know when to take some profit, know what to do when we get a break out.
.
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  #19578  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:47pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I was eyeing the 1.4 region too, Rac...

We have the 1.4 ofcaorse and along side it are two matching highs...should take some breaking...
Right, it's a third test so anything is possible, but if it was fourth, I would gamble on its holding up...

Observation, practice, repetition... That's how we learn and develop proper mind set...
It's time to sit back, relax and enjoy yen , getting weaker and weaker..... I wonder if we get any shakeout first
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  #19982  
Old Jan 30, 2009 9:32am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
OOooooooo....

Tripple
divergence on the 1 hour.
Patience pays off (8 times out of 10)...
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  #19983  
Old Jan 30, 2009 9:39am
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trading in the zone...
.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ayour2a View Post
hello Rac,
am one of ur fan.pls what MA do u have on ur GBPUSD chart?
ayour2a
60ema
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  #20016  
Old Jan 30, 2009 5:35pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post


did you know that your kinda cult status around here rac?
I've only heard of one Cult before, but if they want to start a cult of horizontal lines, so be it.
Many will be saved... but many will suffer..
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  #20017  
Old Jan 30, 2009 5:37pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
47 years young.
chasing by a hand full...
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  #20101  
Old Feb 1, 2009 9:31pm
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eg
.
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  #20206  
Old Feb 2, 2009 11:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinceMeat View Post
Hey All,


Wanted to get an idea of what the number of currency pairs the average trader will follow.
22 plus 8 comod plus equity indexes. This is crucial for me to make my systems work, especially around ppzs...

Quote:
Originally Posted by MinceMeat View Post
Additionally:
-How many currency pairs should someone relatively new to Forex be following?

Cheers
MM
IMO only ONE.
Pick one from the majors and get good at it, understand its characteristics and behavior, then few month later add another major.... and do the same thing.
Trading/watching many currencies if you're just starting out, can lead to 'confusion' and accounts 'dismissal'
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  #20224  
Old Feb 2, 2009 3:47pm
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Default e/j

weekly and daily battle front..

my bias: up to 122/123, void if fiber breaks 127 and today's PB on dow fails...
.
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  #20226  
Old Feb 2, 2009 3:58pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I'll just give you the other side of the coin....
there is a slight problem with this for new guys.

In the past I was involved with a group of new traders and when such setups (A setups) occurred on 6 pairs (it happens quite often), 8 of them lost their small accounts in a day....
Two of the survivor picked the best looking setup and used 5%. The rest felt so confident, they took all setups with about 5% each. Nothing goes straight up, so you can imagine what happened on the first retrace when when initial stops were not moved yet...
I haven't met one new trader yet, who would understand that this is not get rich scheme and even the A trades fail.

Welcome to the beautiful and the least understood world of MM...
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  #20234  
Old Feb 2, 2009 4:50pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey raczek, you nailed that location once again. Is that just a 38 Fib retrace from last week's High and Low?

Or was it more of the voodoo that you do? lol
(sorry I can't post my own charts now)
Let's just say it's a voodoo with a name..... Its name: 111995..
wonder if e/j ad g/u(kind of did already) V will play its magic as well....
.
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  #20252  
Old Feb 2, 2009 6:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
It was the date when EURGBP hit its then all-time-high.
RM




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  #20253  
Old Feb 2, 2009 6:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post

Well I don't think I'm going to trade this one because the risk reward stuffs..
who knows, what future holds..
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  #20299  
Old Feb 3, 2009 9:14am
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Originally Posted by scarlet View Post
Hi Rac,

If you see good set up on 6pairs all look good, will you take them all? how many % account do you allow in one time?

Thanks
No,
I'd most likely pick the two fastest pairs with the larger daily range and the best potential. Risk would be split between the two.

btw.
we just had breakout on fiber 4hr tf. If it works out 1.3030 is my first tp. If it could pull my e/j to 116.70, I'd also be happy
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  #20306  
Old Feb 3, 2009 11:26am
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Good, hope you're enjoying the ride..
I didn't take eg.

Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hi Rac

almost with you on fiber -


also just coming back to your voodoo moment on the eurgbp. When you went long on this,
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  #20311  
Old Feb 3, 2009 4:05pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post

btw.
we just had breakout on fiber 4hr tf. If it works out 1.3030 is my first tp. If it could pull my e/j to 116.70, I'd also be happy
I'm happy...
Both hit 50/61 fib area and e/j is closing on a weekly/daily ppz
.
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  #20430  
Old Feb 4, 2009 12:15pm
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GU march up should be done for the day. Eyes on BOE...
.
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  #20447  
Old Feb 4, 2009 3:21pm
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
i was watchin the gb myself and the chf pin didnt close as a pin on my feed.
the gb/yen has though so any thoughts on this one??
appreciated, jon
I placed my bets and would welcome 127.30 later in asia/europe. Playing it close..
.
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  #20547  
Old Feb 5, 2009 9:30am
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Default The beauty of support/resistance trading

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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
GU march up should be done for the day. Eyes on BOE...
.
down to ppz,
pin off support.... and lift off....
.
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  #20553  
Old Feb 5, 2009 9:47am
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Default Powerfull weekly stuff..

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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
eg
.
next stations ?
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  #20615  
Old Feb 5, 2009 3:25pm
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Closing above dw4 ppz, can be considered positive sign for e/j imo.
I would cautiously start looking for setups, with 122 in sight...
.
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  #20617  
Old Feb 5, 2009 3:32pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Closing above dw4 ppz, can be considered positive sign for e/j imo.
I would cautiously start looking for setups, with 122 in sight...
.
..and here is my setup to add more.. (dump that yen..)
off ppz, 50fib, and.. lets see that pb...
.
.
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  #20699  
Old Feb 6, 2009 9:33am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Closing above dw4 ppz, can be considered positive sign for e/j imo.
I would cautiously start looking for setups, with 122 in sight...
.
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
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  #20702  
Old Feb 6, 2009 10:20am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hi Rac,

If I may ask you, at which point do you start to change your stop to BE? Is it at minor PPZ marked by the orange line? I assume your entry would be somewhere on the line (touch entry). Thanks!
It depends on the account I'm trading. On the larger account I usually take half off quickly (30-50ps) and move stop to be+1 at the time. On smaller acc, I hide my stops below/above PA setups and ppz and let the trade breathe.
My initial entry was 10bars to the left on the break of the IB. I closed some pos. at 117.80 yesterday (this was luck; I had to leave for 2 hours) and added more in asia around 117 with all stops @ 115.70. Later on I changed my mind (no action at Tokyo open) and decided to hedge positions (removed stops) when price slipped to 116. 40. Closed short leg of a hedge at 115.80 and half of long positions again at 117.70 (an hour ago). Now I'm only long with stops at 116.60 (about 20ps below 4hr ppz). Hope it made sense..
.
.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Feb 6, 2009 1:16pm Reason: error in price exit on short hedge leg.
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  #20710  
Old Feb 6, 2009 1:40pm
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Originally Posted by Lapin View Post
Raczekfx,

I am trying to understand the way you entered the last BUOB on EJ.
As fas as I understand, you didn't trade on the break but more on the retrace to the MA.
Is that true? Do you always trade this way, or do you trade on the break sometimes?
Which MA is it?

Cheers
I only care about ppzs (S/Rs), PA and fibs, nothing else. I was in the trade before buovb (my previous post), so buovb kind of brought a smile on my face..
.
.

Last edited by raczekfx, Feb 6, 2009 2:05pm Reason: s/r
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  #20711  
Old Feb 6, 2009 1:43pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
not going to keep it over the weekend, even though we might get a nice gap.
119.60 is good enough for now. Flat ..
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  #20714  
Old Feb 6, 2009 1:55pm
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Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
raczek,

I actually anticipate a retrace on the 4hr toward the 118/117.50 area and then a bounce towards 122. As it looks like there's a ppz on the 4h around that area. Or are my eyes deceiving me?
that would be very nice

..but if you have a look at fiber, it appears like 'kind of' triple bottom in the making on daily. It almost looks like it's preparing to fly to 134.50 or something. Market is getting flooded with $$$ right now, hence I'm looking forward to the next week...
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  #20852  
Old Feb 9, 2009 3:01pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
ah well...You and Rac are unbelievable at times...lol!
why is that...? That's easy money (Jeff's exotic); even with a 100ps spread we'll get to 3.20 very soon...
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  #20932  
Old Feb 10, 2009 2:04pm
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Yup. I drastic move on U/J, E/J, and E/U. I haven't done trading my live acc. for 2 weeks now, not in the mood lol Just been doing demo with J16 stuff. Any ideas why the sudden whipsaw? ....
Bulls trap, leakage of the plan? "Financial Stability Plan: Deploying our Full Arsenal to Attack the Credit Crisis on All Fronts. Today, our nation faces the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. It is a crisis of confidence, of capital, of credit, and of consumer and business demand..."

Language like that adds to volatility and confuses the heck out of investors.
That's why it's best to sit on the sideline or trade PAs near important ppz only and close to your chest.
PA is generous with tips....
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  #20933  
Old Feb 10, 2009 2:20pm
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Default R trading plan for yen cs's

..currently short e/j, u/j, g/j.
will close half when dow futures hit get close to 7800.
will close the rest and look for longs when dj futures approach 7500 (if?)
.
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  #20960  
Old Feb 10, 2009 8:21pm
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Quote:
Arcus,
Are you still considering this one? It looks pretty good to me,
...
I was waiting for someone to comment on g/chf since we hit Tp1 yesterday.
Wonder if anyone caught a PA off that weekly G line...?
SRs are GOLD, especially on the first approach...
I know at least a couple of you here trade at $100/ps. Congrats on your 600 free fall.. :-)

I'd be in a celebration mood, if it wasn't for
$9.7 trillion rescue package, our children and their grandchildren have to live with.... Scary, very scary times....Time to move to NZ?
.
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  #20966  
Old Feb 10, 2009 8:54pm
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
.... So, you would take the PB even the size considered small (might be OK for you) given the location of the PB is superb (Weekly PPZ, that's why superb lol)? ....
Absolutely!!! Location, location!!!
I live and breathe SRs....

Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Mark, my wife (American), just the other day asked that que.. Do you think we should move back to Oz.. I would love to but she will miss her family too much I think.
If it wasn't for the snakes (I hate snakes... must've been swallowed by a python in my previous life....), I would.
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  #20971  
Old Feb 10, 2009 9:49pm
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post

You mentioned about the SRs are gold especially on the first touch. Do you mean that they usually fail to break the resistance (based on the weekly chart) on first try? .
I don't want to generalize them, since I'm very picky when it comes to what I trade, but from my experience they hold 9 times out of 10. The better homework you do, the better chances you will have.... the rest is in your head, regardless of what people will tell you...
There is lots of garbage floating around on the net. If you stick to long term SRs (plus pa), in about year or two, you won't have anything to talk about on FF... That's how simple it is...

It's the people, who tend to complicate things beyond simplicity...
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  #21103  
Old Feb 11, 2009 3:30pm
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Default trading plan worked out ok,... kind a..

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Is this a raczek type trade? ... Keep your stop loss small.
..
that one was only good for 100ps (58.65 :-))

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..currently short e/j, u/j, g/j.
will close half when dow futures hit get close to 7800.
will close the rest and look for longs when dj futures approach 7500 (if?)
.
closed everything on a second test of 7800 and... reversed
...but only with a couple best looking.
We now need some PA to reach limits..., PA tomorrow ? It would depend on DJ imho
.
.
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  #21254  
Old Feb 12, 2009 4:06pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post


We now need some PA to reach limits..., PA tomorrow ? It would depend on DJ imho
.
.
e/j, dj - daily pins? we'll see.

It's worth waiting and saving your capital for days like today
Could it be reversal on dow and e/j? let's see.
If interested, here is a little doc with my today's trades (aggressive, yet planned very carefully).

Dow closed above ppz, so I will look forward for dozens PA entries from a daily perspective.

Happy trading.
.
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  #21257  
Old Feb 12, 2009 4:14pm
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Thanks raczek. Cool stuff.
Glad you liked it Jim....
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  #21260  
Old Feb 12, 2009 4:34pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Just cause I know Mark is busy & he cant catch them all.

One that i managed to catch this arvo..
stop @ be.
lol... funny you mentioned that Jeff, cause it was very tempting, but using 6% of my account would not be wise , so I had to prioritize and picked the runner instead ... (read: yen)
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  #21264  
Old Feb 12, 2009 5:22pm
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Originally Posted by G550 View Post
Thanks for sharing, Rac. I don't post much around here but I'm an avid J16 fan and your posts and always enlightening. I'm starting to think the way you and some others like RustyJeff do in taking trades as they fall into support/resistance, rather then waiting for a break of this trend line or that bar or whatever.

Once again, thanks for sharing. Really appreciate it.

-G550
welcome G550
that's correct, but the hardest job is to find SRs, which will have the greatest probability to survive the ambush and setting the stop accordingly. I'm still working on it...
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  #21337  
Old Feb 13, 2009 4:46am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..

It's worth waiting and saving your capital for days like today

Dow closed above ppz, so I will look forward for dozens PA entries from a daily perspective.

.
Feels like Christmas all over again, doesn't it....
Time to book profit...
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  #21342  
Old Feb 13, 2009 5:11am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
So what's are next likely target Pip?
I ain't pip, but how about 131?
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  #21345  
Old Feb 13, 2009 5:20am
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Originally Posted by giusepp8 View Post
Hi rac.... got a beautiful entry on an ib stalling on a ppz.... it wasn't easy but i waited over 400 pips to take some of the table, the rest is already locked with profit.
Observing and using ppzs religiously is definitely paying off.


(secret to 2nd). Don't know what else to say.
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  #21347  
Old Feb 13, 2009 5:23am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
gotta chart? lolol.

I'm tired from reading... you go to sleep for few hours and there are pages of new posts.... Thank God for FF filters...
Time for a long vacation...
.
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  #21366  
Old Feb 13, 2009 9:14am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
So you see a retrace coming, fair enough. So where are you shorting?
From the area where price was sitting, when I said "time to take profit..." in my previous post.
I could've said "and reverse.." but it would sound, I'm running signals here..
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  #21368  
Old Feb 13, 2009 9:17am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I ain't pip, but how about 131?
Here we go

.
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  #21369  
Old Feb 13, 2009 9:23am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Dude, Like I pretty much alluded to.... ...I'm loving this pair today.
What about cable B-raider..?
don't you like my 50/61 & ppz setups?
.
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  #21371  
Old Feb 13, 2009 9:33am
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..back to support and lift off again. pretty simple,.. if it works...

ok. enough of the good stuff for this week...

maybe one more: I'm keeping eye on dow futures. 7820 is my magic number...
.
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  #21373  
Old Feb 13, 2009 9:41am
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Originally Posted by ikki View Post
Excellent posts raczekfx . I learn from your charts
Glad you said that, cause I'm tired of posting them..
It's a continuous repetition after repetition after repetition.... nothing has changed..
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  #21382  
Old Feb 13, 2009 10:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malvarezdel View Post
Hey Rac, how it feels when you are "in the zone"??
boring....

Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
What broker are you going threw to get your futures chart?
fxpro (charts only)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
You seem to have mastered S/R regions, which allows you to 'jump' the PA entry.

Can I assume you first learned to trade using strictly the PA entries?
Not mastered, but I'm getting better at spotting good areas. Yes PA only, but hated large stops.
Now, even on daily my stops are merely 30-40 pips.
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  #21652  
Old Feb 17, 2009 2:09pm
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Default support and trigger

gj

.
p.s. just noticed my message from early morning never showed up, re-posting
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  #21657  
Old Feb 17, 2009 3:15pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Nice Mark

What do you think is happening with the yen - DJ correlation? you entered long Gj but DJ is very much down, I am long EJ, Uj and Gj (demo) and was worrying abt the DJ drop, but it is'nt really pulling any of these crosses with it...

Regards,
Ghous.
I missed my entry... due to ..., hence I entered on 1hr buov PA.
Normally I would've been in around 129.80, 115.80
I don't see dj (futures) breaking 7420, at least yen crosses telling me about strong bounce coming (at least for time being) we shall see.
It's times like today where fortunes are made and/or lost...
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  #21660  
Old Feb 17, 2009 3:17pm
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Originally Posted by ikki View Post
Mark,
We touch a strong support.
Can we expect a PA for today.?
No, i don't think today, price might test 7450 first...
I'll be there..
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  #21667  
Old Feb 17, 2009 4:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
here it comes mark....
... not yet,
80 more to go....
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  #21700  
Old Feb 17, 2009 7:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cvcamper View Post
eur/jpy : 3 confluence : S/R line, 68% Fib line and trend line..... Long target 117.00

Good, medium. What kind of trade would you rate this.
b or c imo.. in the lower area of my zone
.
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  #21710  
Old Feb 18, 2009 12:07am
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Default DJ's 6th assault.

Is he strong enough? If he falls.....
.
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  #21757  
Old Feb 18, 2009 9:15am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
DAMNIT Rac! you got me rolling on the floor

Humor aside the test of the final pair of lows, was on the cards, the break of 8000 which should really have been the level to push DJ to the moon (am i breaking copyright laws jarroo? ) has really gone against anticipation, would you bet on a hold this time Rac? ...
I don't know, but I'm praying it will. Civil wars are not a good thing...
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  #21759  
Old Feb 18, 2009 11:01am
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Default the power of good SRs - bounces welcome

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I don't know, but I'm praying it will. Civil wars are not a good thing...
bought following when dow futures hit 7460 sr

long ej 116.88
long gj 132.20
long chf/j 79.20

next obstacle is bernarke at 1
if market likes what he's got to say. we should get nice run up on yen crosses if not, we get stop out at be+1 and move on...
.
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  #21768  
Old Feb 18, 2009 11:56am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Not to stick words in his mouth but

Mark(raczefx) is a support and resistance trader. He also uses the heavy correlations(especially as of late), from the DOW as a leading indicator.

Simply DOW rises carry pairs rise( xxx/jpy). So when he saw the DOW hit the last line of support so to speak hoping for a bounce, he uses that to help trade his other pairs, as they will follow

Mike
Thanks Mike... you beat me to it. That's exactly what I do in this market conditions and usually I add the next day when PA forms. Don't know why it works like this, but it worked 90% out of time for the last 6-8 months or so and I've been taking advantage of it. Not sure what j16 free video covered, but in a full version of that video, if you listened carefully James mentioned 'blind' entry...
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  #21769  
Old Feb 18, 2009 11:58am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
. we should get nice run up on yen crosses if not,
.
here we go and it's not even 1 yet...
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  #21777  
Old Feb 18, 2009 1:25pm
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If you told you who he is ...and the feds, many people would be offended, so I stop right here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Haha!

Off go my Uj, Ej and Gj longs...

BTW I had to google this Bernanke word you put in that post Mark, he's some kind of a ecnomist right, did he give off some speech that resulted in the push on the yen crossess?

Regards,
Ghous.


btw. I'm flat for now with limit orders waiting....
from another thread (kind of my journal):
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Closed all

ej 117.96
gj 133.60
chf/j 79.50
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  #21781  
Old Feb 18, 2009 1:39pm
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Smile @ rusty

another opportunity I saw last night. Do we get a two-day PB? It would certainly be very nice.

polish bureaucrats were also talking about intervention... R+O+F+L+O+L
they don't have any reserves to do that, but the word is out and doing some psychological damage to speculators. It might be a great trade after all.
.
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  #21814  
Old Feb 18, 2009 6:36pm
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Yep , my home currency is really beaten up now which make me feel somehow happy about it becouse soon im going back to Poland and exchange all the pounds i have earned here in UK. Look at the GBP/PLN. I manage to short it @ 5.00 with fib 50% confluence and then bought breakout>>retest. Now it is at strong long term resistance. Hope it want go much lower ;].
Good luck with that and here is my present for you....
I'm sure you're interested in this index.....
I bet it's very quick and good money to be made here....
..
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  #21944  
Old Feb 19, 2009 2:32pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
First target hits on Ej and Uj...

Nice to see some hint of support for the DJ at 7500 Mark, eh?
every consecutive test will add one nail to your coffin.....(if you take it)

but on a more serious note, I still have positions open since 2PM est yesterday (ej, gj, aj and chf/j) , so all I have to do is to manage them properly. I took half off around the double tops, but I think we'll be breaking those tops soon... unless dj breaks first...
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  #21951  
Old Feb 19, 2009 3:35pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
So you got out, let it fall a bit, and got back in with limits yesterday afternoon? Nice work Rac. You have truly honed in on S/R. Keep posting, as you are an inspiration to us newbies to what we want to be doing someday.
Josh
yes, not with limits (price didn't get that low), but with market Os. I wouldn't really pay too much attention to my posts if I was a newbie, unless I wanted to see (and practice on demo) what price is doing once it hits good SR. My posts are geared towards PA traders who were struggling with PA like I was (it had to do with patience in my case) and are looking for an extra tool or some edge if you will. I used to be stopped out at BE way too many times and it was frustrating experience.... hence my extra effort in R&D of SRs
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  #21960  
Old Feb 19, 2009 4:19pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
Sounds good and understood. LOL - yes always R&D... keeps us progressing, refining, enhancing...

Watch out below. Just ruined the TBL on daily ESH9... ah well, now we might have a BEOB (just watching)

Josh
Beovb are best to be taken when they occur at swing high and vice versa. We want to see buovb at swing low...
Beovb at swing low might be a costly one.
.
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  #21987  
Old Feb 19, 2009 6:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter View Post
USDPLN daily PIN. The spread is little bigger but PIN and location look splendid and I like that it is with the trend. Do you trade this pair?
Similar formation is on EURPLN.

alter
Check this post....

For some reason usdpln brings memories of the first chart below..

.
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  #22000  
Old Feb 19, 2009 9:30pm
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Default @ Greenhaze; 22k and going strong - posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Good luck with that and here is my present for you....
I'm sure you're interested in this index.....
I bet it's very quick and good money to be made here....
..
Hope you took advantage of this beauty...
.
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  #22071  
Old Feb 20, 2009 10:02am
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Default range trading... price flip around ppzs

gu
.
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  #22072  
Old Feb 20, 2009 10:06am
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gj
.
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  #22078  
Old Feb 20, 2009 10:28am
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Default a history of one trade.. or maybe 3

ok. the last one for today.

1. 4hr pb ( missed it),
2. price retraces,
3. ,
4. in-trade....
5. kaboooom
6. pivot hit,
7. out.

Exactly the same way I played cable today, but on 1hr (retrace back to pb + 50/61fib) and g/j - retrace to 4hr pb

Early Friday morning... business closed.
Back to do more R&D

have a good weekend all..
.
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  #22080  
Old Feb 20, 2009 10:39am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Nicely done raczek. Classic.


Learned from the best Texan in here ... Didn't asked many questions, but watched videos, practiced, built confidence, practiced some more, added couple extra tricks from my own R&D and that's the end of the book....

History likes to repeat itself time after time after time, but not everyone likes history....
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  #22114  
Old Feb 20, 2009 2:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Nice trade Rac. 1 question, if you trade on the lower TF, the PPZ you draw is based on that TF or higher TF?
I would still have daily/weekly on, but add ppz for that tf to have a visual reference where price could encounter hiccups.
Quote:
Originally Posted by giusepp8 View Post
...
I feel too proud to say i made some trades as you showed on some of your posts, .. proud because they all came from my personal R&D but surely your posts pushed me to go deep into S&R (obviously complemented with PA).. i feel like i'm geting a personal edge on trading .... the only thing I blame is all the time that took me to get here to find out how trading can be unbelievably simple and fun.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ikki View Post
Do you use too WIG20 to trade USDPLN?
no, index itself.
It could be Ecuador's Index or nikkei or anything else. I started trading foreign indexes (without much knowledge of the country's economy) based solely on DJ index. DJ acts as a barometer for every other index in a 'normal' country in the world. When I expect dj to hit resistance and bounce off it, I can safely play any index in the world. Just check next Monday major world's indexes. They will all be in the green 200-300ps.
The trick is to know when to pull the trigger, since most of the stock exchanges in the world are already closed...
I'm not going to go into details on this subject, but I thought some folks here might use this information to DEMO indexes...
Again R&D plus 15min glance at charts at the end of the trading day can be very rewarding.... for some...
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  #22121  
Old Feb 20, 2009 5:19pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
dont know how many we get.. dont care really.
Try to focus instead on what you will do with them when they come along.
..
that's right, have a trading plan ready, so you know what to do when trades are delivered to you on a golder platter.. just like fiber ...

And HERE is a little wisdom by James from the past. Not sure how many of you saw this, but a sound of lost 700k makes me work harder.
.
.
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  #22268  
Old Feb 23, 2009 11:07am
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Any explanation??

Thanks...
if i may..
Jeff is waiting for futures to retrace to certain point to go long or add more to his longs on fiber, cable, kiwi, aussie and some yen crosses. I'll throw a chart later tonight if I find time..
G.. guys, you're really kill that 1hr TF here...
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  #22274  
Old Feb 23, 2009 1:10pm
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
oh, thank you rac...

may I ask, what pairs are related to DJ futures that you were posting before?
Would like to know to do my own RD...
for now I'm seeing and taking advantage of e/j and g/j.
Markets constantly evolve, so this will change in the future for sure but we as smart and observant traders will adjust our strategies as well..
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  #22275  
Old Feb 23, 2009 1:17pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
Came short 6ps of 122... I'm sorry for this margin of error...
If we get a bounce in equities, it could be easily hit tonight. Let's watch it.
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  #22278  
Old Feb 23, 2009 1:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
DAMN! I hate to be absent from pc during times like these Mark, I've hardly traded voodoo this week been very very busy,

Things are obviosuly looking good though, Even on demo I would'nt want to destroy the wonderful beginning and will be on the sidelines for a while till i can rearrange my routine a bit.

Regards,
Ghous.
Capital preservation is important.. you have plenty of time....
Now, dj hit 11year low. It's time for me to do some gambling...
.
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  #22359  
Old Feb 24, 2009 8:03am
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Originally Posted by ayour2a View Post
Rac,
are you planning on Shorting the yen and whats is the correlation between dj and the yen pairs?Thanks

ayour2a
no, not in this market..
you don't short yen crosses when dow is at 11year low..lol... Unless you're thinking shorting yen itself? If so, then, that's ok.

I wanted to add e/j and buy g/j as well as eu, nu and au.
Yen crosses worked very well but the rest lagging behind. Anyhow stops are at be with some profit already booked...
.
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  #22370  
Old Feb 24, 2009 9:22am
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Rac,

I passed on the same EURUSD trade you took on the 4H chart due to the time of day. It was during the Asian session, and I decided to pass (which looks to have cost me a good trade).

Do you normally look to trade the 4H chart during the Asian session if the right set-up occurs, or was this a mix of the a good trade and riding the Weekly Pin bar retrace?

Thank you for your help!
I know many traders stay away from asia sessions but for me time doesn't matter. I trade whenever I see an opportunity or expect some action and to be honest late asia was very generous for me for the last few years, especially yen crosses.
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  #22372  
Old Feb 24, 2009 9:27am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hey Rac,

For the E/U trade, the current bar from your chart has already turned into PB. From what I see, the PB is off PPZ. How do you manage this trade? I mean when you are targeting for higher PPZ the price will reach, and you got contradicting PA to go short. I usually changed my SL to the bottom of the new PB but I found by doing this way, I usually got stopped out and price continues north. So, how do you handle this sort of situation? Thanks rac.
by using targets and moving stops to Be+some on the remainder.
in this case my TP was 2790, the rest is at be, and I'll check every 4hr to see if I can move it higher. I wouldn't mind if it hit 2950...we'll see.
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  #22383  
Old Feb 24, 2009 2:03pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
no, not in this market..
you don't short yen crosses when dow is at 11year low..lol...
.
it looks like party again..
can't be too greedy. just closed half at weekly res..
.
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  #22387  
Old Feb 24, 2009 3:09pm
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Originally Posted by cvcamper View Post
Can I ask for learning purposes what led you to buy these? So hopefully in the future, I can do the same
sure,

e/j is self explanatory if you look at its weekly chart.
with g/j, it was a pull a pull back to a daily pin on feb 17th. cable was gaining strength and feds stated they're extending the currency swap facilities and issuing more USD to worlds central banks. In such case, all you really need to do to complete your puzzle, is appreciating equities, so you can buy and hold yen crosses. There is only one direction they will go.

ps: just read your post again.... I would advise if I may, that you change your wording to something like: I am trading alike or I'm a very profitable trader ; instead of "...hopefully in the future.....

The power of subconsious mind can do wonders....
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  #22414  
Old Feb 24, 2009 9:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
i looked at the wkly chart for this & all i see is price consolidation. did you just take the break of the wkly high above 120.33?
initial break - closed at the break of 4hr pb. and then almost 'blind' entry on pullback to previous break out area

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
may i please ask what your source for this was? how do you usually keep up w/ the fundies?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc06/i...5126CZ20090203
I don't, except for overall interest rates direction, but this was a hint, virtually telling everyone "we don't care what you think, we'll flood the world with dollars."
THE world heard about it on Feb 3., but those more privileged ones on Jan 26 (don't worry that's not me..)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
would you say that this is the main piece of this puzzle? the dj -> yen correlation? thx.
for me yes, for others, it may be very well a piece of garbage. everyone trades differently.
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  #22491  
Old Feb 25, 2009 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ok I am long fiber...

..
Ghous.
Ghous.....
.
.
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