Home
Search Forums
Keywords:
Search Titles Only
User Name:
Exact Match
Show Results As:
Advanced Options
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #15002  
Old Nov 5, 2008 8:40am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
yes, but there is a arrow in the second bar after the brakout. It is a pinbar (and IB). Did you enter when this bar was forming and touch in the TL or you waited the breal of the top of this bar?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1224773941

thanks for reply
Hey Giraia,

Yes it was the IB that I traded, but in my breakout trading I look at that type of pattern as a pullback pinbar. I ignore all things about traffic, and what not and am focused on S/R, and the "flip" in these areas holding. The price bar is simply a trigger for me.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15003  
Old Nov 5, 2008 8:41am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

WOW 1000. Congrats big guy. I know this thread means more to you then can be put into words. And it means more to us then we can put into words!

To the next 1000

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15008  
Old Nov 5, 2008 11:49am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
i was hoping to get through this thread before joining the PF, but should i detour to the PF now? i already know from other posts that it is full of masses of info...

cheers

Simon

Hey Simon welcome

Wizard(trader dante), is a good guy, haven't heard from him in awhile, tell him to say hi to his first home sometime :P

I would spend some time working your way through this thread before joining. James posted this in another thread the other day, so I will just quote him:

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i think anyone considering us would be best served by spending at least 3 months in the free thread first. by then you will be able to make a very educated decision instead of a knee jerk one that gets people to sign up for trading websites.

nothing makes me feel worse than a former subscriber that wishes they had not joined. are you out thousands with us? no.
are you buying a lot of good material and time with a lot of good people? yes. is 129 a lot to wish you hadnt spent? no....edit--perhaps i should say "at least not in this business"

none of this matters though. what matters to me is you act responsibly before joining anything trading related. being responsible and business like is what the group tries to pound home every day with its members.

you can easily do that by simply spending a couple of months in the free thread first. you will know by the end of that time whether what we do fits you as a trader or not.

i would rather have 20 happy members rather than 40 with 20 being unhappy just for the extra 20's money.

it aint about the money. it never has been so DO NOT JOIN THE JAMES16 GROUP UNTIL YOU HAVE SPENT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MONTHS IN THE FREE THREAD.

Reply With Quote
  #15052  
Old Nov 6, 2008 10:54am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Attachment 166622

Can this be accepted DBHLC ? It was just bouncing down from the trendline
Hey Alm,

The close must close Lower then the previous bars LOW

Best,
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15056  
Old Nov 6, 2008 3:01pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hi all,

with regard to BUOB's does it matter if it hasn't come off support, but rather breaks resistance? ie there is no support/fib on the low of the bar but there is on the high of the bar. If the next bar then opens above the support is this a signal to go long?

thanks Simon
Hey Simon,

I really gotta jump in and stop you here. I see you are trading on the 15min timeframe, and while I know it is tempting, it will serve you far far greater to start out on the daily/weekly to learn what James teaches. The temptation is hard to resist but as james says if you can't prove to yourself to be profitable on the weekly/daily then you shouldn't be going any lower.

As for BUOBS, generally we want them at swing low points and then you can trade a break of the high of the BUOB. In this case your BUOB was in a sideways traffic market, not a complete swing low, there are bar lows above it keeping price down. This is what makes the lower timeframes so tricky. The noise.

Hope that helps

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15057  
Old Nov 6, 2008 3:06pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

price is in consolidation mode. The trend is down, but we should be waiting for the reaction here(most likely price is in wait mode for NFP).
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	48
Size:	12.5 KB
ID:	166748    
Reply With Quote
  #15100  
Old Nov 7, 2008 11:49am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya PeterFM and Thexder,

Thank you muchly for your in depth explainations you made some points very clear in there that I never thought about on this subject ..

Also sorry, but i think i missed something as well about the Pivot Zones..I'm just wondering is that the mid area of like a congestion area bouncing in a narrow range of S & R?..

Adrian
'
Hey Adrian

A PPZ, can be a single line, or it can be an area. So sometimes you have a flip of Support and resistance say off of a round number. Where price is constantly reacting that that price. But more times PPZ are zones, where they are areas that price is reacting and finding both support and resistance.

From the man himself

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ne#post1840240 (start with that post and scroll down James gives a lot of examples should help you)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12722

Have a great weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15105  
Old Nov 7, 2008 2:09pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
For everyone that thinks I am full of shit.... Enjoy
Ryan you are busted man, Katy Perry? HoT n Cold huh.

No more phone calls from me
Reply With Quote
  #15136  
Old Nov 9, 2008 1:10pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by boyeros View Post
I would like to learn your system .Could you explain me how it works.
Hey Boyeros

It is not as simple as that unfortunately. Just get a good cup of coffee and start reading from page 1 here. Go through this very slowly and things will start to become much more clear.

Enjoy

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15138  
Old Nov 9, 2008 1:24pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by benem View Post
Hallo guys i'd like to know your thinking about this Pin.
It's not the best shape but there's some confluence between 100 and 50% FIB.
Thank you.
Hey Benem careful here

When the open and close are in the middle of the bar like that, that is a neutral bar. This shows indecision in the market place.


-Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15167  
Old Nov 10, 2008 12:09pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard View Post
Can I ask a question: I often see Jim and Mike drawing levels on their charts using a pen tool in MetaTrader? Can you tell me where I can find this tool, please?
Hey Wiz

The only pen tool I use is when I record my webinars/videos using camtasia. MT4 doesn't have one. So when I mark up a chart for posting I just use the trendlines button with "ray" unchecked in properties.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15216  
Old Nov 11, 2008 7:18pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya,

I was wondering if we could go back to this post by Jim please..

Sorry for this but i am only just starting to learn PB now so please don't flame me! ..

Where Jim has put the arrow for that move just before it there are alot of OB and a couple of IB..
How do you work out which one was the one to take? or is it just a matter of watching congestion and also which way the move goes after the IB or OB is created?

Sorry if obvious answer but I have been trying the IB OB PB and I'm getting hurt and now totally getting confused about...

Hey Adrian, what post number I will take a look for you

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15218  
Old Nov 11, 2008 8:13pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya,

I was wondering if we could go back to this post by Jim please..

Sorry for this but i am only just starting to learn PB now so please don't flame me! ..

Where Jim has put the arrow for that move just before it there are alot of OB and a couple of IB..
How do you work out which one was the one to take? or is it just a matter of watching congestion and also which way the move goes after the IB or OB is created?

Sorry if obvious answer but I have been trying the IB OB PB and I'm getting hurt and now totally getting confused about...
'
Hey Adrian,

Nevermind Bundy showed me how to pull up the chart with that little arrow I didn't know that! thanks bundy

On the chart James posted there are no other good OBs at a swing high there. If you could post a chart with markings of which you are reffering to that would definitley help. IMO insidebars are the last of the price bars a trader should learn. They are IMO the most difficult to trade correctly. Of course this is just from my experience. OBs, are like pinbars in that you want to see them at swing highs. The OB isn't at a perfect swing high but still playable depending on the trader. Again if you took this trade, the first area to watch out for would have been the blue line on my chart. After that it was a free fall and you could have just trailed above each high and made a killing. Also supporting this BEOB was divergence. the BEOB was the first real good signal to short using divergence. you could have shorted the IB marked with the red arrow, but IMO that would be super agressive.

Hope that helps a bit

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	57
Size:	13.6 KB
ID:	168639    
Reply With Quote
  #15243  
Old Nov 12, 2008 12:59pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by doubletop View Post
Hi all,

New at this (trading naked that is) so please treat me gently!

Sticking to 4hr charts for the time being and think I may of spotted a buy on what looks to be a nice pin_bar formation.

Just would like you experienced chaps to assist me please

Would like any opinions good or bad, I can take it

Looking forward to the advise!

Bye the way excellent thread and thanks James16 et all.

Doubletop.

Hey DT

Welcome to our naked thread

Yes this is exactly the type of thing we look for. My chart isn't a pin, but just look at it, it is bouncing right off the 61.8 also. and the former resistance. Also make sure you wait to see how the bar closes, I checked Interbankfx and there is still 2 hours before the close of that bar. In this market 2 hours is an eternity

Take care

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15244  
Old Nov 12, 2008 1:02pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
decent pinbar on the H4 EUR/CHF, hit the 23.6 and 1.4800 support and is heading back up, doesn't look like it'll run more than 50 pips, big pivot area around 1.4918, got an almost 1:1 ratio with the TP at 1.4918 and the SL at 1.4790.
This is similar to what DT just posted, but on my chart this is a closed bar(don't forget to let them close DT )
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	77
Size:	13.4 KB
ID:	169079    
Reply With Quote
  #15287  
Old Nov 13, 2008 10:20am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Hello JIM!

The chart looks really nice with 2000 Tick Bar. Can the MT4 support this? I would also like some explanations on the difference between J16 pivot zone and Floor trader's pivot (iss'it the normal PPZ?). Thanks for all the support.

ALM
Hey ALM

Floor trader pivots or Pivot Points are calculated based on the OHLC. Then a number is spit out and you get your pivot points. Being that forex is NOT centralized, you have a bit of a problem of what numbers to used based on when you consider the daily to open and the daily to close.



The Price Pivot Zone, is what James talks about as a Zone where there is a flip b/w support and resistance. This is an area that we must mark ourselves on our chart.

Floor trader pivots = mathematically caluclated
PPZ = discretionary

Let me know if that makes sense.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15288  
Old Nov 13, 2008 10:26am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi All

I would just like to direct this question to the more experienced members such as Mike, Jarroo etc. What is the minimum number of barscandles necessary for a PPZ on say, a 4hr or daily timeframe? I believe a good understanding of PPZ zones is crucial for PA trading and was wondering if any of you guys have a number in mind, eg 10 or 12 bars etc? Looking at some of the previous charts posted here it seems that some ppz zones only have a few bars.

Any thoughts comments most welcome,

bertie
Hey Bertie,

My opinion on this is that it can be anywhere from 2 bars and up. Sometimes you have extremely obvious areas that do not have as many bars in the them. These are more minor areas. The more bars that are bouncing within this zone are going to create a more obvious PPZ area. The better way to start to identify them is to zoom your chart out and look for the obvious areas. As you get better and better the minor ones will jump out to you as well. It honestly becomes something you see automatically, and couldn't ignore if if you liked.

Here is a chart with 2 zones. The first has to very large swing points. The second(lower zone) , is more congestion but you can sill see the reaction

Hope that helps

Mike

edit* doh thanks ghous
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	67
Size:	13.0 KB
ID:	169534    
Reply With Quote
  #15361  
Old Nov 14, 2008 3:09pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
I was just going to ask myself. I can't decide, would love to hear if anyone will hold these daily set-ups that have not triggered over the weekend (Limit Orders), or if you will pull back and wait until next Monday to decide.
personally I cancel all orders that don't trigger on the next bar daily included(rare exceptions)

Have a great weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15403  
Old Nov 17, 2008 3:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
5% on 1min, and just today, you say...
That's like 100% per month and without taking asymmetrical leverage into account....

I'm just kind'a wonder, what 100% of nothing equals to...
What are we wasting our time doing mark

lol, 5% a day everyday. Yeah sign me up. You can trade my money and everyones I know .

Those that are new to trading please don't get sucked into this mentality. NO ONE is making 5% a day consistently. Period.

Take trading smart and slow as James outlines. If you want to survive. Don't get sidetracked with the unrealistic, it will only hinder your progress.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15418  
Old Nov 17, 2008 4:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jankone View Post
I believe you, nothing is impossible.

Sorry I can't not post when claims like this are made. Especially without the facts

Here we go.

50,000 starting account(which is peanuts in this market)
5% a day

After 35 trading days your account would be roughly $275,000.
So when do you hit your first million. Oh just over roughly 60 trading days. LOL.
95 days = 5 mil

Now for those that are new to trading, let me state again, no one is making 5% a day consistently with any sort of substantial money and/or substantial drawbacks.

Be smart out there guys/gals. It will pay in the end. Yes this will happen gain and again, thread will sidetrack briefly and maintain its course. Why do I even respond. Because I know some new traders skip many posts and see these and then get green as green can be, and blow their accounts. Why would I want anyone new to blow their accounts out. I flat out don't want anyone too. This is my only reason for posting this.

Best
Mike

PS I am not saying you can't have great trading days/weeks/years even being conservative. We are talking 5% a day consistently. Just not happening on any real trading level. Well maybe, but you will be on the forbes list very quick


PPS if this saves one new green in the eyes trader from blowing an account that would make me feel like a million bucks
Reply With Quote
  #15423  
Old Nov 17, 2008 4:41pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

and back to trading all


the squeeze is on, similar on many many pairs.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	107
Size:	14.9 KB
ID:	171017    
Reply With Quote
  #15463  
Old Nov 18, 2008 11:31am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
There is a lot of consoladating going on all over right now.
Dont force any trades, go get a coffee, relax, & let them come to you.
They WILL come.
The best advice always
Reply With Quote
  #15466  
Old Nov 18, 2008 11:39am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
I have been cooking up a storm today! When it's slow I cook and goto the gym, I know Mike drinks.... A LOT when its slow lol j/k
I'm on my second iced coffee and it is 30 degrees out LOL
Reply With Quote
  #15467  
Old Nov 18, 2008 11:40am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjpumping View Post
hello james 16,i am totally new to this thread.all i want to know and ask is that...DO YOU CONSIDER NEWS RELEASE WHILE TRADING YOUR SYSTEM OR YOU DONT PUT NEWS INTO CONSIDERATION?

HAPPY PIPS TAKING
James ignores the news like the plague...follow the chart to the finish line
Reply With Quote
  #15506  
Old Nov 19, 2008 10:18am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Hey Simoncs & Ghous. Thanks for the replies

It is true that we can be successful trading only few fx pair, but as Iam conservative with my trades, Iam more comfortable spreading my risks with opportunities from more pair or markets. I would really like to know how traders like Jim and mike would manage looking at variety of markets (just out curiosity, so that beginers like me get some taste for the monitoring setup). Thanks

ALM
Hey ALM

Edited this, I realized you were asking about how to watch. I simply go through my pairs each night and create a watch list for the next day. SO when the daily bar closes I go through all my pairs which doesn't take long. Then before the euro session I setup pending breakouts and important areas on my 4hr and 1hr charts and just keep only those charts open. I have 4 monitors to spread my charting and trading broker across to make it easier to browse.

Best of luck

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15516  
Old Nov 19, 2008 12:23pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Someone View Post
Did anyone take the pin on the EURGBP?

I thought it looked like a great setup off of the weekly support from years back but it triggered my entry to the pip and then blasted through my stop..
Hey Someone,

This pin was in traffic, and just sitting out there to nothing relevant. These look good, but rarely produce good results from my testing.

Best to wait for a retest of some previous resistance around the .8200 area.

See chart

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	88
Size:	15.1 KB
ID:	171989    
Reply With Quote
  #15623  
Old Nov 22, 2008 2:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tj#8 View Post
Guys,
I have been wondering about bar/candle pattern 4hour chart. As we have different broker which seems to have different server time, more likely it will produce different form of candle/bar, doesn't it? Let's say, it's possible that I have DBHLC on my platform (4Hour tf), but others may have it differently. So, how do we manage this? Which is the right one(time open/close) to use?

Thx,
tJ#8
Hey TJ'

Yes this is correct since forex is not centralized this will vary from broker to broker. The general rule is play it how you see it. There is no one right time. Price is still price though it is just how that price is aggregated into the bars we see on our charts.

Have a great weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15654  
Old Nov 24, 2008 8:59am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fx-Junior View Post
Hello everyone! Im new to forex, about 3 months ago i heard about the possibilities of currency trading and i was immediately interested.

A month ago I found this stunning thread of Jim's. It's best that has happened to my trading. SO MANY THANKS TO JIM and many others!!

The strategies I have explored have all been complicated and hard to make success with. Not this one though, method as you say. It's really easy to recognize the high probablity spots, especially on the higher time frames.

I have been trading on daily bars and I really like...

Hey JR,

Man I wish I found this stuff so early on in my forex career :P I commend you on sticking to the larger timeframes, and taking Jims advice.

Is it possible to make 10% a month trading daily timeframe on 20 pairs. Sure I guess, why not. But don't be so focused on that right now. Stay focused on being consistent. What you can do instead of being focused on just those 20 pairs. Get a broker that offers more then 20 pairs, trade commodities, futures, equities. Now you will have the ability to watch many more securities.

As for risk per trade. My advice is to not feel the need to bump your risk up that high. The drawdown that you will experience if you make a few bad trades is really not worth it. 5% risk is very very high. Stick to the 1-2% range and then after you have enough experience under your belt if you decide you want to take on larger risk (thus larger drawdowns), that will be something that is up to you. I see no need for anyone too personally. Everyone gets very focused on upping there risk to up their ROI, and never looks at the other side of the coin(drawdown).

Of course these are just my personal views after trading for awhile.

Best of luck
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15663  
Old Nov 24, 2008 11:29am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Iam currently using InterbanFX, I like their 'No Deal' order execution and Iam quite happy with their connectivity and service.The only thing is they do not offer to trade commodities, futures, equities. I would like to know other broker having similar (effective) service with commodities, futures, equities. Also particularly, whether the money will be safe with them?. Thanks

Hey Alm was gonna PM you this, as to not turn this into a broker chat, but your PM and emails are off. Take a look at Oanda, MB trading, Interactive Brokers. These will offer you more options on forex/commods and IB you can have a universal account and trade everything.

Shoot me a msg if you have more questions

Best
mike
Reply With Quote
  #15761  
Old Nov 25, 2008 10:15am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fx-Junior View Post
I have understood that to be a BEOB the close of the BEOB bar has to be lower than entire previous bar, which is not the case with the second one. Have I understood it wrong?
HEY jr,

It doesn't have to close lower, it should be in the lower end of it, but a close that IS lower then the previous bars low makes it much better. I personally prefer them to always close lower then then previous bars low too.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15769  
Old Nov 25, 2008 12:06pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PiPtHiEf View Post
Ok, how is this for a PA setup? Would you call this a good setup on EURCHF?
H4 PB at swing high+ Res?

Relatively new to PA but flame on
Hey Pip,

When the low of your current bar breaks the low of the previous bar it can't be a pinbar. So at best this will end as a BEOB. With that said, it is personally too much traffic for me and there are much better setups to wait for.


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15773  
Old Nov 25, 2008 12:40pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PiPtHiEf View Post
How about if the daily bar forms a PB? Would that change your way of lookingat it or does the nose seems to be too short?
yep you got it, the nose is still too small. The overall bar is nothign to get crazy about. The good pins will smack you in the face and say trade me, I promise


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #15851  
Old Nov 27, 2008 10:33pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongToBeFree View Post
Can someone please provide a definition for I4B, I3B and I2B in terms of what they look like on a chart?
Hey LTBF

I4B simply refers to an inside bar that has a smaller range(that is the high -low), then the previous 3 bars.

SO an I3B, would be an inside bar, that then has a smaller range then the previous 2 bars.

So you can have an I9B, I10B, etc. As long as the range is smaller then the previous X amount of bars(note these bars don't have to be decreasing in range in order, just the inside bar has to be smaller).


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	62
Size:	11.7 KB
ID:	175571    
Reply With Quote
  #15894  
Old Nov 28, 2008 12:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDandy View Post
How do I get a chart on Gold like this in my Mt4? I have a forex account at IBFX...Can i get a demo on commodities or something....How do I get a chart of something besides currencies?
check out FXpro platform, has a lot of stuff on it


-Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16074  
Old Dec 3, 2008 2:09pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wellington View Post
Greetings

Very nice E-mini S&P 1H DHLC off of 61.8 Fib & 365EMA and in direction of longer term trend. Wasn't perfect - the 'LC' wasn't as low as I'd have liked, and the bar following the setup retraced just a little too much (though met resistance at the 365)

Attachment 177492

-The Iron Duke-
Hey Iron duke

Be careful here, a valid DBHLC, the close of the bar must LOWER then the previous Bars LOW. In this case you had a TBH(which still signals a temporary pause in the up move.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16076  
Old Dec 3, 2008 2:46pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wellington View Post
Thank you Mike, but what you say - at least according to Mr Pring - isnt entirely accurate. He makes no mention of the close needing to be lower than the previous bars' low. Regardless of the 'correctness' of the setup, I have had success trading these 'quasi' DBHLC! Thank you anyway - I appreciate your guidance

-The Iron Duke -
Hey Big Duke,

Yeah I have great respect for Mr.Pring, probably the only Technical Analysis book out there(pring on price patterns), I would ever recommend anyone reading.

I am referring to James DBHLC, as we trade them different in here. Same with pinbars. James although gives full credit to Mr.Pring, trades them different as well.

Best of luck

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16079  
Old Dec 3, 2008 2:53pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wellington View Post
Understood Mike - Thanks

-The Iron Duke-
Just noticed these were your first posts too! Welcome to the thread!



Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16086  
Old Dec 3, 2008 6:00pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
@Mike

same question Mike. Do you take trades in any session? If there is times of the day that you don't take trades, wich are these, and it will afect trades in hour and bellow or even in 4h?

thanks in advance.

and as aways sorry for my bad english.
Hey Giraia,

Your English is better then mine

I will let me daily/weekly pending orders execute any day any time as long as the trade is still valid.

For my other trading(breakouts intraday), these a generally 4hr and under trades. I will 98% of the time execute Only during the European and US sessions. The other sessions are meaningless to me. Exceptions come in times like this when all sessions are active due to volatility across the board.

-Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16088  
Old Dec 3, 2008 6:34pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post


that was the answer i didn't want to rear but was what i was guessing

so, the trader that don't lives in London needs to be a Zombie
Well if you have other commitments just stick to the higher timeframes would be the best thing IMO.

Take care

mike
Reply With Quote
  #16114  
Old Dec 4, 2008 11:37am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by libertao View Post
Pretty good looking pin on the AUDNZD, with the trend. There's something about it that's just not sitting right, maybe its too neutral, maybe I'm just not a fan of the pair, but I can't tell whether I'm being cowardly or prudent. Mike--I'm very curious about your thoughts on it?

Hey

Well AUD/NZD is one of those funny pairs that I don't trade very often. Tends to be choppy more then anything. There was a bit of space on that pair(not much), pin could have closed better. Overall nothing I would get to excited about. It has come up back towards the highs so you prob would have taken full profit, or moved your stop to b/w on the type of pair. Overall though I think this is a no trade.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16118  
Old Dec 4, 2008 1:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gaia View Post
Your thought and comments would be most welcome on the 8hr GBP/USD Bar at 08.00 Today, (sorry cannot post charts at present)
This would appear to be a nice pin bar off support and off a few Days lows range 1.4650. definately against the major trend so a little concern here.

Possible daily pin bar if the range stays tight the rest of Today!

Love to hear your thoughts

Regards
Hey Gaia

I would just wait to see how the day ends out and trade based on that. Like Northpro above I would sit on my hands and see how these pairs hold up going into the closes.

Best

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16120  
Old Dec 4, 2008 1:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi Jarroo,

Just wondering what your thoughts were on the 1h pin on EU. I could not see any other reason to take it apart from it being a good looking pin. Could you elaborate so that us lesser mortals can learn a bit more? Many of us on here respect your views and it would be nice to hear your opinion on this one man,

thanks,

berti
Not trying to put words into Mr Jaroos mouth,

Posted this in the PF , double bottom area, 1.2550 round number, heavy div and oversold , good space and swing low


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	70
Size:	13.6 KB
ID:	177961    
Reply With Quote
  #16123  
Old Dec 4, 2008 1:31pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordElessar View Post
About the cable PB.

I know that James16 and others don't pay attentio on news, but tomorrow has the NFP announce. So, if the today price bar closes with this PB, isn't risky to put a pending order at it?

I am afraid, cause due to the volatility cause by NFP, we can have our order triggered and price, after that, go to the wrong direction.
Personally on daily price action I just leave my pending order in. If it gets close to NFP and it hasn't triggered usually I pull my order. You could use limit or bounds to help on slippage if you want to leave it through.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16133  
Old Dec 4, 2008 7:22pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I must be the only guy here that couldn't make a decision on that EU pin. lol

I have to say I'm still happy I didn't take it, regardless. I look at it now and still see the same reasons I didn't want to do anything. Can't always be in the right frame of mind, I guess.
You absolutely made the right decision. If it doesn't sit right with a trader, fit your criteria, it could end up going 100000000 pips and it still wouldn't make a difference.

Not trading is often the answer

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16201  
Old Dec 5, 2008 2:16pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 786 trading View Post
Ohh you mean if I want to enter this then i should wait to go to price higher then Pin bar?

I am just trying to fully understand the concept of pin-bar and want to trade it successfully.
Appreciate your help.

yep the conservative way is to wait for the high/low to break. A pinbar is only valid when this happens. If you play it on the close or retrace you run the risk of it never breaking(making it a more aggressive play). Neither is better both have advantages and disadvantages. I always wait for a break personally.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16223  
Old Dec 5, 2008 5:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

yum yum

and many more of the same, pick your battles and proper MM
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	50
Size:	11.5 KB
ID:	178581     Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	49
Size:	11.8 KB
ID:	178582    
Reply With Quote
  #16225  
Old Dec 5, 2008 5:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Mike, I was eye balling this USDCAD set-up as well.

With a daily trade like this forming on a Friday bar, do you go a head and put in a Buy Limit order at the close of Friday, or do you wait until the markets open back up on Sunday evening to make your decision?

Thanks for all the help you share here!
I would definitely wait till sunday opens. Re-evaluate clear your head over the weekend. Come back and pick your spots.

Enjoy the weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16228  
Old Dec 5, 2008 5:44pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Hi Mike


Would be interesting to know how you would play the USDCAD Pin. It looks like a nice setup but a few things that concern me include the strong up trend (general USD strength therefore CT), ascending triangle and the trendline on my attached chart.

After saying that I do see it as a really nice pin with divergence so it is tempting.

Would you take a break of the low or work around the TL?

cheers
FXP
Hey FXP

Your chart is correctly marked up. I will sell the low of the pin and let each days PA play out. If the resistance is as strong as it looks it could become a very nice trade. For those that are more quick to move their stops to b/e they should watch those areas. I will trail at the end of each day depending on how PA shapes up.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16231  
Old Dec 5, 2008 6:03pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Mike, shouldn't you be in bed right now. LOL

Hope your feeling better bro.
thank you good sir, bed is in the cards very soon
Reply With Quote
  #16233  
Old Dec 5, 2008 6:16pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
say what? mike is sick?

say it aint so mikey,

jim
flu has bit me in the ass, lots of meds and water for me
Reply With Quote
  #16442  
Old Dec 8, 2008 3:07pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
. I know im being scrooge on a really good day but this is why i do what i do.
scrooge?! I think most of us think you are Santa Clause with this stuff!
Reply With Quote
  #16456  
Old Dec 8, 2008 4:49pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
LOL. You feeling better mike? my wife came down with it yesterday which usually means i am next.
uh oh, all my friends are sick now too

I still have it in the head but at least no more fever/sore throat.

Hope you don't get it and thanks for asking


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16498  
Old Dec 9, 2008 3:34am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
I just spotted a DBLHC on the USD/CHF 4H tf (with FXpro feed) previously bouncing of 61.2 ret. no other confluence

I need some advice about this LOCATION of the PA, Thanks

ALM
Hey ALM

I see nothing more then a consolidating market at the time being. This bar has yet to close, but take a step back and look at how price is sideways and this bar is stuck in traffic. Wait for the good ones they will jump out at you.

Here is a chart

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	34
Size:	10.8 KB
ID:	179790    
Reply With Quote
  #16516  
Old Dec 9, 2008 8:22am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p View Post
Hi Jim, I don't have a lot of posts on here, but I've been trading for nearly 10 years and have made a ton of mistakes along the way....
and you should post much more often! very nice and sound post
Reply With Quote
  #16539  
Old Dec 9, 2008 3:00pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Hey B My answers below in bold

Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi Guys,

Hope you are all trading well....

I had nearly an identical question today here was my response

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post

We have both major and minor PPZs. This means that technically speaking(our chart), can be filled with lines everywhere. So what to do?

You have to start the best way till you get used to how you want to effectively use them. The way I recommend do this is stick to the MAJOR ones only. Instead of drawing them on the daily, then 4hr and so on. Draw them on say the weekly and daily only. The real major ones. They should be very clear and obvious. What happens is people fill their charts with all these lines and then are just paralyzed by the chart.

As you get a feel for these major zones, slowly you will be able to add the less minor ones, or the ones on lower timeframes. One rule I have is do everything on one timeframe. So if you are taking a daily trade, that should involve daily ppzs(or weekly is ok because you will have so few of them). If you start mixing 4hr ppzs in there your chart will look crazy.

Hope this sheds a bit of light

Mike


Then I had another post with a chart --- here is that response and chart below


Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
here is an example of some major and some more minor PPZs

In the blue you can see the more clearly defined PPZs area. These are what I consider major PPZs. Then in purple. you have the less major ones. Now this doesn't mean they aren't or won't be important. But when learning you have to strip things down and take it in pieces. My suggestion is to stick to ppzs that jump out like the ones in blue


Mike
[/b]
My second question concerns Pins located at PPz zones/areas of confluence.
When we talk about the pin being in a good location at these areas do we mean that the the nosebody or tail is resting on the confluence area or can the ppz cut through the middle of the pin?


This can be both ways. Sometimes the nose will pierce by a little, sometimes a little more, sometimes it will stop dead on. All are potentially valid and ok.

Thanks guys,

berti[/quote]
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	42
Size:	11.8 KB
ID:	180092    
Reply With Quote
  #16636  
Old Dec 10, 2008 11:36am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
Well, we may see a break of this, or TC. Fib 100 @ ~126.27 and 0.0 at the bottom of this run, ~ 115.83, we are up at fib 50, with MACD confluence and 1 hr pin. Lets watch and see.
My guess would be a 122 bounce where the next set of heavy sell orders probably resides to keep us in this wedge
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	54
Size:	12.5 KB
ID:	180592    
Reply With Quote
  #16643  
Old Dec 10, 2008 2:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Achilles28 View Post
Hi Guys,

I've got a question about Fibs and trend reversals.

Using Fibs, how do we know a trend reversal has taken place?

In other words, how do we know which way to project our retracements (buy or sell)?
Hey Achilles I am a bit confused on your question. I think you are asking how do you know where to draw your fibs? If that is the question you draw the fibs from highs to lows.

You can have fibs both ways, you need to identify swing points.

So look at the first chart. I draw a fib from the swing low point to the swing high point looking to get back long on the retracement. So price made it back to the 38.2 and the continued up.


Now look at chart 2, same chart. We can also draw a fib from swing high, to the NEW swing low formed(the one formed at the previous chart 38.2), and look for shorts. Notice this time price retraced to the 61.8 bounced briefly and continued on upwards.


Now as you can see fibs can be drawn both ways. The bigger the swing points the more weight they usually carry. So for example in the charts showed previously, chart 1 was the larger swing points(ie the distance b/w swing low to swing high was greater), this means that there was a larger move to the upside. Thus most likely people are going to look to buy dips. Chart 2 was simply a brief smaller move that occurred within this larger move.

Sorry if this wasn't your question at all!

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	47
Size:	12.4 KB
ID:	180657     Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	48
Size:	12.4 KB
ID:	180658    
Reply With Quote
  #16665  
Old Dec 11, 2008 12:22am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tokwanden View Post
This reply make me . Beside your thoughtful/helpful insight/response u show your sense of humor ( At least it reduce the reading tension..I'm stuck at pg250..).
It is a long read but worth every second I promise!
Reply With Quote
  #16667  
Old Dec 11, 2008 1:05am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I thought the saying was "easy as pie" and "a piece of cake". LOL.


Re-reading parts of this wonderful thread is always fun to do.
sometimes i get my desserts mixed up
Reply With Quote
  #16729  
Old Dec 11, 2008 8:10pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GetSmart View Post
Not sure Mr T....if you thought you might make 18-20% more profit it might make you re-think that. His sample was 2 years but perhaps thats not enough. I'm wondering whether it can be another tool to add to the confluence basket. Ie. If gmt and est show a similar bar then more reason to take the trade. I kinda do this but don't have enough experience yet to know whether its effective.....instinct tells me it might be though...

JLMAC27 - hourly bars and below are all the same but not 4hourly and above ...

Wondering what Jims or Mikes thoughts are....

Cheers,

Joe...

Hey Joe,

My thoughts are that you gotta do what works for you. I don't think that a good trader is going to be made into a bad trader based on a timezone of brokers. The information is still the same just aggregated differently. Personally I like a broker closer to the standard NY closing times(est time), I think it makes more sense to have a bar close during the time when NY closes. But I don't think there is going to be any significant difference that would have me worried. Again different methods, maybe. Testing is sure important.

Again just my thoughts, I sure wouldn't change my methods based on findings done by anyone but myself though.

Have a great last trading day!

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16909  
Old Dec 15, 2008 11:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by goodtiding5 View Post
EUR/CHF is approaching PPZ and 61.8% fib (confluence). Watch for possible reversal here.

Notice also the bearish rising wedge and MACD divergence on the 4HR chart.

Ken
Yes Ken quite agree with you to watch for a play here(might be short term). I talked about it in my chat too.

I'm big with the round numbers so I have the 1.6 big number marked off



Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	41
Size:	12.7 KB
ID:	182714    
Reply With Quote
  #16914  
Old Dec 16, 2008 2:53am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GetSmart View Post
Mike and Ken,

I've already entered a short on the EURCHF. Need someone to tell me why I shouldn't have...I'm forgetful An aggressive entry me thinks....

Mike, what category would you say this trade is ? B+ ? or z- ?

My reasoning..

1. 4hr IB closed below PPZ (fxpro chart)
2. Confluence at ppz, ie 38 weekly fib

Joe
Hey Joe,

You gotta be mighty careful trading Inside Bars on the 4hr. They pop up quite a bit. IMO if you are going to trade inside bars on such a low timeframe it should be in a consolidating market(ie off the top/bottom of a range). A lot of times these Inisdebars form simply due to dead times in the market. They are tricky to play on the lower timeframes. Again of course this is just from my experience, but waiting for some much more concrete PA would be my suggestion, espcially on the 4hr. I am going to keep an eye if we reach 1.6 for some PA

Hope that helps

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16921  
Old Dec 16, 2008 3:15am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GetSmart View Post
Thanks Mike I appreciate your thoughts and they make great sense as usual. I'm gonna try n post my trades a bit more as it helps my own thought processes and I encourage opinion !!!

Can't you sleep ? Must be pretty early there, here in Aus night is about to fall !
PS. Just checked NY time and if you are there its 3.11 am !!! You maybe never went to bed or couldn't sleep !!!
always got one eye open :P
Reply With Quote
  #16947  
Old Dec 16, 2008 11:19am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
hi all,

I'm here as I have blow 5 accounts and am looking for a better way. getting bogged down with stochastics, MACDs, RSI, 5min, 1min, 1hour. too stressful and too difficult. tried tonnes of systems and none have worked.

lets see how I get on beginning with daily timeframes.
Hey adv,

Sorry to hear about your blown accounts, and glad to see you getting away from all that other stuff and taking Jim's advice. You will find this less stressful, and after spending some time with this stuff you won't look back

Best of luck and post or PM if you have any questions

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16974  
Old Dec 16, 2008 4:31pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by initex View Post
Sorry for off topic.
Very strange thing happened with my account at Oanda. Sunday afternoon I put "limit buy" order on USD/JPY at 91.95 and Monday morning I saw, that my order was executed. I don't get it - price did not get even close on Sunday or Mondays morning. In the afternoon I called helpdesk and they told me, that on 5 min timeframe at 1:00 EST was spike that activated my order. it could be seen if I put my charts on min/max or bid/ask. How could it be, that this spike couldn't be seen on 1 hour or 3 hour charts.
this is considered weekend trading so to speak. Go to your preferences and enable the weekend data(uncheck hide weekend data), then you can see that spike. Always put your orders in sunday to prevent from these things(gaps, premarket trading etc)

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16980  
Old Dec 16, 2008 8:19pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Smith View Post
Did anyone keep there shorts from the daily pin, I closed out, wishing I had kept some running.

I bet mike is still short.
nope closed out just above 1.22 unfortunately and then my entry at 1.25 just never looked good enough to get back in. So I missed the last 200 pts


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #16984  
Old Dec 16, 2008 9:37pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
There's been a lot of that lately. Where you can be confident of the place, but not confirmation.

Especially gold. I've been keeping an eye on that. The levels are working great! ...but the bar signals have sucked! lol
Couldn't agree more. But if anything just keeps our confidence in the levels we identify. The confirmations will come.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17031  
Old Dec 17, 2008 4:54am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
What a minute . . Mike's not 34 . . he's in his 20's . Sorry Mike. My bad.
jeez I turn 25 and you guys are aging me 9 years.

See this is what happens when I try to catch a few hrs sleep
Reply With Quote
  #17032  
Old Dec 17, 2008 4:55am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Rumor has it he is hideously ugly though.....never goes out in the sunlight and lives on pizza.....I'm just sayin
LOL, ugly you tell me, my avatar is what I actually look like
Reply With Quote
  #17075  
Old Dec 17, 2008 3:36pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Naijafx View Post
here are my charts I love switch from support to resistance and vice versa, they work for me. looking at daily euro, i saw price reacting at a PPZ and i just did a switch to 1hr and i saw a PB.(fib confluence at 61.8) I am still on demo with these stuff but i just placed some PO at two pips break away from the PB low and set my tgt at various support. I want your comment on this. Took 200+ pips on the GU chart that i posted earlier Thanks
Hey Naija

Be real careful here, I think this is stretching things a bit. Firstly the pin on the hourly didnt have a close within the prior bar so technically it is not a pinbar. Secondly it has been 4+ bars and the low was never broken. This is often a sign of a lackluster pin. Most people cancel their order if it doesn't break on the next bar or maybe 2 bars. I would just be careful here as maybe this will give some pips to you, but I think there are better trades to wait on the sidelines for.

Just my views

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17190  
Old Dec 18, 2008 6:40pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Hmm.. I like this.

I'm not good at spotting divergence, but please let me know if I drew this correctly. I'm sorry for the battlefield heads up display on the picture.

Price pierced the 68.1 Fib on Monthly, Divergence on the Daily, Pin Bar at a low after a huge run down.
Hey LVG

This isn't divergence. You want your oscillator and price to be going opposite directions.

Here is an example

Best
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	41
Size:	17.4 KB
ID:	184292    
Reply With Quote
  #17202  
Old Dec 18, 2008 7:40pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
yeah, I always mess it up. I just don't have eye for it.
a bit of practice and you'll see it right away
Reply With Quote
  #17206  
Old Dec 18, 2008 7:59pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
do you mantain the old North Finance after decades it changed to FxPro. I suppose you use Windows 3.1.

hey, to do not make this a uselles post, i like to make a question:

play tha EURUSD and USDCHF pins is good or bad?
EDIT: i mean, i am playing the same trade with double lots or i can really say this is 2 trades?


thanks in advance.
Hey

No idea why it still says North Finance, it simply never changed name even though my feed is FXpro. I am on XP.

As for euro/swissy etc. You can take them as 2 separate trades, I wouldn't just double up on 1 since they are correlated. I am personally only going to take the swissy,

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17215  
Old Dec 18, 2008 8:46pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GetSmart View Post
Hi Mike,

Are you going to take usdjpy too ? Appreciate your thoughts on this one.

Regards,

Joe
Hey Joe,

I am not really liking the look of USD/jpy. Yes we are due for a bounce, but that bar just isn't good enough for me. On my feed it is close to a DBLHC but not quite. We are coming into a lot of resistance and a strong trendline. I would rather wait to see us break the trendline form some kind of support and then play a bounce from there.

Just my thoughts though as always
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17216  
Old Dec 18, 2008 8:47pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
sorry, the problem is my bad English. I was not asking if i should double in one of them, but if took 1 trade on EURSD and 1 on USDCHF was the same of took 1 trade with double lots, as they are extremaly correlated.

thanks Mike.
I always look at a trade as separate. So if you took the euro and swissy I would treat them each completly different. I would never double up on one, thinking that is the same as take each separate due to correlation. Instead I just look at the chart and play it as a good setup is a good setup. If you believe both are worth trading then take both, etc

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17217  
Old Dec 18, 2008 8:49pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by idejs View Post
Hi Mike!

Thanks for all those great lessons and this great example, just a quick question. When is this divergence are you looking for some pattern on there to be sure when exactly it is going to come down? Otherwise how can you know that this is exact moment to go in the trade? And if you are looking for pattern then on the same TF or some smaller one?

Thanks again!

Ed

Hey Ed,

Been great to chat with you through PM,

As always Jim knows his stuff and is always a big help

I use divergence as just another "tool".

Ultimately we are looking for good PA at a good area to confirm everything else. The most recent example was the triple top on USD/CAD + Div + Pinbar with good space swing high. High probability trade is what our goal is. If you try to just trade divergence in a trending market, you will get killed over and over. Wait for the market to tip its hand via Price action at a good spot. Then you just use Divergence as a tool for a heads up on when to be looking or helping with confluence to your decision.

See chart

Hope that helps
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	44
Size:	11.1 KB
ID:	184314    
Reply With Quote
  #17220  
Old Dec 18, 2008 9:15pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Sorry to bug in,

I've been wondering what's the meaning of DBLHC, RET and BUOB?
DBLHC = Double Bar Low Higher Close. So this is when you have matching lows, and the second bar closes HIGHER then the previous bars HIGH

RET = Retracement

BUOB = Bullish Outside Bar. This is when a bar encompasses the previous bar. It mush have a low lower then the previous bars low, and a high higher then the previous bars high. The higher the close the better( I prefer a close higher then the previous bars high).


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	47
Size:	10.8 KB
ID:	184323     Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	44
Size:	10.7 KB
ID:	184324    
Reply With Quote
  #17296  
Old Dec 19, 2008 11:24am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post

This is getting easier as time passes :-)

cheers
fxp
Very happy to read this from you FXP
Reply With Quote
  #17477  
Old Dec 23, 2008 5:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Happy Holidays and safe and healthy new year to my old and new friends here!

Another year and thanks to James profitable trading

2009 full steam ahead
Reply With Quote
  #17573  
Old Dec 29, 2008 2:54am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
What do you think about this one? (If it make PB). Confluence and lot of space (like in Mike's video).
Hey Arcus, It is way to early to start looking at a daily bar here. But if we did close as is, I would say this bar is way to insignificant to have any real meaning. The markets being so slow, so this bar is extremely small(small nose). These bars are better off left alone. The space and area are good, but I would want to see a much larger nose.

Hope you have a great new year

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17576  
Old Dec 29, 2008 3:12am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Yeah, I know kinda too early. Just get pretty bored. I'm not trading my live acc. this week yet, maybe after new year. Just practicing my PA stuff. BTW, just realized that the PB is too small. I looked at weekly chart, the downmove was huge, so it would take lot of momentum to push price higher and the PB is too small LOL.

But still I have Q to ask you, if this PB has a long nose, would you take it? I mean, the location of the PB. Thanks!
Hey Arcus,

Yep if this had a long nose pin, this would be a great location for one. I am not doing much trading till the second week in Jan either.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17714  
Old Jan 1, 2009 1:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Just wishing everyone a Happy new year!

Looking forward to the new year with yall!


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17835  
Old Jan 5, 2009 12:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
I wonder if anybody could help me with a quick fibs query?
On the daily USD/CHF chart(below) I originally drew my fib lines(yellow) from the swing high to the first swing low. Price then made a significant rise, followed by a drop to a new, slightly lower swing low. Did I draw the fibs correctly, or should I have redrawn using either the 'new' lower swing high or slightly lower low, or both?
Hey Interceptor,

You would want to take the highest point here, and then move it to that next lowest point.

here is a chart


Best
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	38
Size:	13.2 KB
ID:	188097    
Reply With Quote
  #17838  
Old Jan 5, 2009 1:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Hi alter, thanks for the replay, I noticed too, but I consider TP 1 (acting as s/r line several times ), more powerfull place for price to go.

anyone has something to comment?
mbqb11, ghous, raczekfx, jarroo or any other experienced traders here?

Thanks in advance....
Hey Trujillo,

That was a nice looking trade. Insidebars can be extremely tricky to play. I usually only play them when they are sitting on very clear heavy support or pushing up against resistance.

Your zones are marked off very will too. Keep it up and enjoy those pips

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17863  
Old Jan 5, 2009 4:46pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pf1966 View Post
This will be my 1st post on this thread.

I don't believe in coincidence.

Regards

Anthony

Me neither Anthony. Actually the markets are much more logical then most would care to believe. These bars here showed the market consolidating down giving us our inside bars. Then it wanted to shake out the weak players(ie, pushing down/up opposite way it intended to go(indicated by the pin looking PA). Grab the stops, induce new buyers/sellers), before proceeding the way it intended by eating up all the new orderflow generated.

Thanks for posting

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17907  
Old Jan 6, 2009 10:39am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188 View Post
Pin with Trend + Div at Swing high.

Though about playing a break down of the swing right before (under blue bar), would've been good for close to 1:1
Hey Stoli,

I worry enough watching people play the 5min in here, but to each his own with this stuff. But that bar isn't a pinbar. The close has to be within the prior bar. Just be very careful, don't want you guys to get burned.

Take care

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17911  
Old Jan 6, 2009 10:56am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
This stuff started working, as soon as I stopped getting in my OWN way.
Man I loved this post

Reminds me of what James says, "it's you vs your own ego"

Nice dutch

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17915  
Old Jan 6, 2009 11:29am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Naijafx View Post
am not too Good sighting DBHLC, hope this is valid......... I love the divergence mostly Ghous and Jarro, my PA teachers, I need ur experienced comment
Hey Naija

For it to be a DBHLC, the close of the bar needs to close LOWER then the previous bars LOW

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17920  
Old Jan 6, 2009 12:15pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188 View Post
Now Mike I wasn't snapping back if this post has a bit of an attitude to it as I learned a lot from you and appreciate what you've done. All I hope to do with this post is open some eyes to see what goes on behind the PA.

Please feel free to critique, question, or give me feedback on what I have posted.
No worries Stoli, I never take anyone posts as anything more then what they are

Everyone finds their own way eventually, I just had to jump in b/c we get a lot of new traders who stop in this thread and I want them to get off on the right foot. If down the road they decide to do what they will with the material I am all for that. If you are making money you are making me happy

Best of luck!
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17954  
Old Jan 6, 2009 5:38pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post
Another silly question here...I hope you guys don't mind..
Is it wise to enter a trade during the Asian session?
All I know is they tend to range during Asian session..
I personally only put on intraday trades during the main sessions (london/NY).

But if I have daily orders in after the daily bar closes(mine is 5pm est), I don't care what session they get triggered in.

The last few months have not been the norm with the volatility being high across the board. Seems to be fading a bit back to normal though(sadly).

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17961  
Old Jan 6, 2009 8:32pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
hi all. i have done some research into many different styles of trading in an effort to find one that i wish to pursue. i know i only want to position or swing trade larger time frames (i have a day job). i have read some into the james16 method and wish to learn all about it. its not that i dont want to read thru the entire thread, but i just dont have the time. this thread has gotten pretty long. has anyone put together a comprehensive summary guide to this method? in .pdf format? so that i can read it and then jump right into the current posts....

Hey DKM

The difference b/w this thread and many of the threads on FF is there is not a Do this, then do that. Like raczefx pointed out a few pages back, James16 is not a system, but a method. A method that takes some time and a lot of dedication to learn. You would be best served to spend the extra time you have to start from page 1. If you can only read 1 page a day, it will serve you very well. I know it seems like an enormous task, but you will think very differently when you get even a 100 pages in. If you must skip some of the thread, the just read James16 posts. You will not regret it.

Best of luck!
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17990  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:17am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chonchy View Post
sorry for the q. but reading true this tread, I find myself in this igconite, Is a pin bar the same thing as a pinnochio bar?
I would have to say not really. While James gives full credit to Mr. Pring for coining the term, the way James teaches it I find very different then what is offered in Prings book. I do say that his book is worth getting and one of the few books on TA I ever found worth the money. So the concept is the same(ie a lieing bar), but the style for which it is applied, I find unique to James' teachings.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #17991  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:18am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
LOL! Nice work on the face
yes I laughed too
Reply With Quote
  #17993  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:37am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chonchy View Post
I had the idea that a pin bar is when a bar wig is larger than his body like in the chart that was shown and the way Mr. James discribes it, it looks like an inside bar, wish is smaller than the previus bar, but all I'm trying to do here is learn, so excuse any mistake a made, and thanks a lot in advance, and defenectly that is a book I'm reading next (Prings books) if you please tell me the compleate name, I'll appreciate it, thanks again.
yes a pin is when you have a small body in the lower/upper portion and a large nose(tail/wick) protruding the other way away from price. Of course it is hard to just simply define it and the charts are the best way to show. As you go through the thread it will become more clear, and of course ask questions along the way.

The book by pring is called Martin Pring on Price Patterns by Martin Pring, and only that and a few other books sit on my desk within arms reach

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18042  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
Been looking at these two latest (almost) pinbars on USD/CHF.
Both turned out well, but I didn't trade them as they didn't close within.
Right choice?
I think it is always the right choice to pass on something if it doesn't meet your criteria. Always another one around the corner


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18043  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:05pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Just took half off my Gu trade at +500 pips

It's been a nice ride uptill here but I am ready for some whipsaws later tomorrow

Regards,
Ghous.
Nice trade Ghous, if this one breaks out we could see 1.6 then 1.65 easy, looks like many pips for you
Reply With Quote
  #18052  
Old Jan 7, 2009 1:34pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Mike, may I know your reasoning for this one? I know it's a PPZ. But as I see, there are also PPZ below 1.6 which is around 1.56. What do you think when you see area like this? Hope to learn from your experience
Hey Arcus

Yep you are correct, that is why I said 1.6 then 1.65

If you look you can see 1.6 is creating a PPZ(blue box), So what I see is price might break out(we are due for a retrace), re test the 1.5 area(another PPZ), and then we might see 1.6 and then 1.65 Which is the last highs of a minor PPZ. Notice if we retrace to each PPZ after breaking higher we will then be putting in Higher lows and higher highs on our way up.

Here is a chart trying to explain more what I mean. Now this is NOT a prediction. I simply formulate these in my head so I am not surprised when it happens and instead can react to PA better. A game plan if you will. Notice the PPZs and rd numbers lining up at each level This might not even come close to what happens, but those levels are all still good to watch.


Hope that helps

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	72
Size:	13.4 KB
ID:	188991    
Reply With Quote
  #18067  
Old Jan 7, 2009 8:41pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ffbk View Post
I had a question here... Does it really matter what time your daily bar starts? Is some start time preferable over other?

I have been using IBFX which has day starting at 5:00 pm EST.
Today i saw ITradeFx and noticed that it's day starts at 12:00 am EST. Also, it had a pin bar for yesterday(but no pin bar on ibfx for last 2 days) on daily chart.

Also, had i taken that trade, it would have been in nice profit....
Hey FFbk,

This is one of those things that most of us have just decided it is best to use whatever you are comfortable with. Since forex is not centralized this is always going to be an issue. My preference is to have a daily close close to the NY closing time. But many others use very different times. In the end most of us settle on "play it how you see it".

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18111  
Old Jan 8, 2009 12:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
raczek posted this uj earlier and i added this fib to it. it looks like this pin on the h4 is poking through the 50% fib and has nice support confluence.


im thinking of playing this pin as it closes in about 30 mins. any advice how to play would be great. im new to this thread so any opinions are extremely helpful.

thanks!
Hey Scott,

I do like the area of confluence you have marked on your chart, but that bar would not be a pin. You need to have a much longer nose(the bottom part sticking down). This bar if closed as is would be more a neutral, "pause" bar. Not enough to execute a trade. Would be nice to wait and see if you can get some better looking PA. Then the most conventional way most of us enter these bars, is waiting for a break of the high, and placing your stop under the low.

Hope that helps

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18117  
Old Jan 8, 2009 12:55pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Mike,

Thanks for the help..it was funny i was thinking that the nose wasn't that long either. Is there any general method you use to determine how long the nose should be?

Also, if this was a valid pin, I'd wait for the high of the pin (white line @ 91.31) to be broken to enter, and set my stop a few pips under the low of the pin (red line @ 90.70). Should I wait for a close of the next bar above the high of the pin or can I enter as soon as the high is broken? Any tips on taking profts?

Thanks again for the help, and I'm working my way through...
Hey Scott,

I don't have an actual rule for how long it should be. After awhile you know the ones that look good and those that don't. The best piece of advice I can give in the beginning is wait for the bars that literally jump out at you. As you get more experience you will know where you can be a bit more aggressive(based on location), vs where you need to stand aside. Even a really good looking pinbar needs to be skipped sometimes based on a variety of factors. So for now stick to the pinbars that have huge noses and just stick out there saying trade me.

Yes for entry, you can enter as soon as it breaks, you don't have to wait for a close above. Usually I use a buffer. So on the 4hr I am placing a buy 7-15 pips above the high depending on the pair. This buffer increases as the timeframe increases, and decreasing as my timeframe decreases.

Enjoy the thread it is one great read filled with great people

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18140  
Old Jan 8, 2009 7:02pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jicjoc View Post
It looks nice but i'd prefer to see it close above 0.73.
That would mean a clear breakout of the last 3 months range since october.

Any comments on this PB guys?
I posted this one inside the PF. This is what I consider a breakout + pullback play. We have major PPZ forming around the .7000 big round number. Price broke out stalled at the high around .7250 and we even got a TBH. Price then pulled back and pinned off the .7000 mark which I love(sure through a fib in there if you want). This was heavy resistance turning into support. I am looking for us to break up and if we can breakthrough and even close above this TBH area it shoudl be off to the races until we hit the next area of Resistance marked off with a blue box.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	78
Size:	12.1 KB
ID:	189527    
Reply With Quote
  #18146  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:33pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
then you will play the break and not sleep until it reaches the double top, then you will move to BE. It is correct? Or you will not play the breal of the pb?

thanks in advance.
I will play a break and let it run its course. My daily trades I don't touch until days end. And tomm is friday and I like to sleep in on fridays too
Reply With Quote
  #18147  
Old Jan 8, 2009 9:34pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
I have seen alot of pin bars similar this situation however most that have been posted in this thread have been discarded due to the "traffic" and not sufficient "space". So essentially you consider this a poor PB trade however a good breakout and pullback trade?
yes I like to think of Breakout trades(where traffic doesn't matter, the area is what matters most), different then what I call pure PA trade(such as taking a PB at a swing high and swing low).

For me they are in two different categories. This is one reason inside the PF I have a breakout thread, and a general trading thread. Cause they are separate in my criteria and mind.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18176  
Old Jan 9, 2009 1:05pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hey Mike

I know you were looking for a potential long on this one, but just as alternative view, what do you think about this HnS on the 4hr (i know daily carries more weight). Have I recognised this pattern correctly? Price has recently tried to break the TL and pulled back - we could see another bounce off it and your potential long trade or if it does break it then it could potentially also break the neckline and continue south?

cheers

Simon
Hey Simon,

I don't really trade patterns like H&S very often. Unless it is on the daily/weekly and super clear to identify. This may be what happens, but I can't let those things cloud my judgment. This was PA at a high probability area, with room to run. It looks like it won't even break the high of the pin which means no trade though. So one thing I never do is look around all other timeframes. I enter and trade of the same timeframe, otherwise you will always find reasons to/not to trade(been there). So you may be totally right with this, but it is up to you if you think this is a tradeable pattern. For me though, I am just keeping my eye on the .7000 area which is clearly our pivot zone. I will watch for PA hints at this area to pick up pips.

Have a great weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18184  
Old Jan 9, 2009 6:47pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Np dude.


Any areas you got your eye on for next week?

Here's one on GBPCHF. 4 hour 365EMA, 1.7500 round number and previous support + potential trendline.
Now you're talking
Reply With Quote
  #18238  
Old Jan 11, 2009 4:16pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread View Post
I bought this candle ( if pic shows) only to be stoped. my question is how do you know? when to go long or short? i can snap a million lines? I was on the 4 hr as well. Thanks
Hey No bread,

That candle you bought is nothing more then a neutral bar. This is when the open and close are near the middle of the bar and have wicks sticking out from both ends. This signals indecision in the market and these bars/candles we do not want to enter on.

check out this post and pdf for a summary of the bars
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18222

Then go back through all of James posts and it will become clear after some work and practice.

Hope that helps
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18242  
Old Jan 11, 2009 4:44pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread View Post
No i get that it is neutral after it closed, my question was when i bought the break (over the line) how do you know? because i get whipsawed to death.
Hey NB,

I am a bit confused on your question. What were you trying to buy? Can you clarify a bit thanks

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18244  
Old Jan 11, 2009 4:51pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by belekas View Post
Hi Mike Hows the old buddy doing? Wanted to catch you on skype but seems you are not using it :P
I'll be sure to hop on a few times this week Shoot me a msg during the week when your around so we can chat


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18248  
Old Jan 11, 2009 5:06pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread View Post
I guess I have a little trouble with s&r because i never am sure if i have them right, i got stoped on aud usd last week as well just to watch it go my way.
I posted another pic and i guess mike what i am trying to get at is how do you know when it is a ture break. Should i have waited for the candle to close? Then taken the next? but that one fell as well ( as jim would say to the pip) off the next resistance area.
Hey NB,

Sorry if I am misunderstanding still, but what it seems you did was just buy for no real reason. I don't see any price action to warrant a buy. Instead it looks like you bought off a neutral bar and then price retested a prior bars high and fell. SO what I mean is there was no PA to tip off to get in anywhere in your chart up there. If you are looking to play a breakout of support/resistance. My prefered method is to wait for a pullback. So if you identify clear resistance above price. You wait for price to break above the resistance, then pull back and to retest this resistance. Look for PA to confirm the test of the resistance turning into support. Just be patient to wait for the clear PA signals, especially on a timeframe like the 4hr. There is never a reason to take anything less then an A trade.

The best thing to do when learning this all would be the following.

Learn to identify the main bar patterns, and the perfect looking ones. For example a big huge pinbar at a swing high/low. Or a big huge BEOB/BUOB. Do all of this on the daily/weekly charts. Mark of the most clear PPZ(support and resistance areas). Focus on trading less and trading the most clear patterns that emerge. This will give you the confidence and discipline to trade better.

Ghous reposted the minimum requirements that James sets out a few posts back. Follow those and you will be on the right path.

Hope that helps
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18256  
Old Jan 11, 2009 7:07pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post
Hi guys, just wondering..on my Aud/Usd Weekly chart the previous week candle seems like a decent PB, what do you guys see?
I can't post charts right now, got some internet problems..
Hey X

The body and the nose are nearly the same length, in my book that is not a pin. Wait for those big looking pins. They will jump out and smack you in the face

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18272  
Old Jan 11, 2009 10:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
but will you keep the long orders on AU? Now that we are in the begnning of the week, will you move to BE as sooner it touch the previous double high?

thanks in advance.
Nope the high of the pin never broke so my order gets canceled that day


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18382  
Old Jan 12, 2009 6:11pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Brrrr....that looks cold....awesome waves though...where is that....South West somewhere?

Ok....one more off-topic thing before I concentrate on potential trades for today....this is for Ghous because he's a snake lover....taken in the Kimberley in Nth Australia in 2003.....an Olive Python...probably around 25 foot....doing a spot of Kangaroo Fishing.
Holy crap that is insane. You all know James is a HUGE snake fanatic and breeds pythons he has sent me some awesome pics
Reply With Quote
  #18587  
Old Jan 14, 2009 11:53am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p View Post
Sorry to hear that. It happens from time to time. I'm no pro when it comes to J16, but let me ask you this. How much room to the downside do you see? Is this pin in traffic?

Yep, very true. This would be too much traffic for me. One thing I do to solve this is zoom out your chart a bit more. People get so focused on just finding a nice looking pinbar, and then forget what is around it(which is the most important always).

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18594  
Old Jan 14, 2009 12:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post
Daily Usd/Cad I believe...
But my chart does not show any pb on the yesterday's bar...
Yep I had no pin either, but here is still the analysis of the area.

And what I mean by zooming out, to understand where we are.

Notice how small looking the bar really is, but more importantly all the traffic and support you would be trying to trade into. The 1.2000 area is a huge pivot(look at the congestion of the blue box area. Fighting a battle to try to trade that one. Your stop would have to be moved real quick(I would just stay out).

Just some thoughts

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	47
Size:	10.2 KB
ID:	191646    
Reply With Quote
  #18600  
Old Jan 14, 2009 1:43pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
Thanks all for the feedback on my loony disaster.
Must confess it's been a little disheartening.
Regardless of what happened with this trade, you can't let that affect your emotions at all. You are going to have tons of winners and tons of losers along the way. After awhile you realize it is "just another trade". The sooner you can do this, let your emotions/ego/feelings get out of the way, the faster the learning curve will speed up. It's a process, but just stay as clear minded as possible and enjoy every second of it.

Head up next trade

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18633  
Old Jan 15, 2009 12:14am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
Hi everyone,

I am new to the thread and the trading method, now still slowly reeading through all the materials here. Spotted a pinbar in EURJPY, place a long pending order 10 pips away form the top of the pinbar. Yesterday pin bar failed to break the support. I also saw a pinbar setup in the EU and place another long pending order 10 pips away from the tip of the pin bar. All on demo account. SO is the pin bar valid setup and will you take it Jim? Pls enlighten me.

Hey Ray,

Welcome to the HUGE j16 thread. By the time you get done reading it your trading will NEVER be the same.

The bars you posted are not pinbars. The first bar is at a swing low not the right location for a pinbar you are looking to short. You want that bar to be at a swing high. And the second bar is a neutral bar. This is when the open and close are near the middle of the bar. This shows indecision. Check out this pdf it should help you with the basics.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18222

If you are still unclear let me know and I will get some charts up

also I made a video called pinbar introduction up on the guest part of the j16 site. It has helped a lot of people get started with the basics of pinbars. Check it out, it may help(I hope )

Enjoy!
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18690  
Old Jan 15, 2009 11:04am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
Mike,

Thanks for your guidance and thanks james16 for shairng his trading method. I will study more and try to read up the whole thread. Hope I can catch up with you guys soon. By the way, I have a question, must we really join james16 private forum in order to master trading? Can we just learn by reading on this thread. Recently I am having some cashflow problem recently, unable to fork out more cash for james16 private forum. Hope I do not offend anyone by asking this question.
Hey Ray

There is a TON of information in this thread alone to develop your trading to the point of being profitable. Those that want more after reading this thread end up signing up for the things the PF offers. If you are tight on cash, stick to this thread, and master what is in here. PRACTICE DEMO DEMO DEMO DEMO. Rinse and repeat.

Enjoy and shoot me msg if you ever need anything
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18696  
Old Jan 15, 2009 1:03pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by senorsam21 View Post
Hey... it looks like Jim updated the first post. Check it out.
nice! I didn't notice that, haven't been to page 1 in some time. Wish I had some more time I would go through this thread again from start.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18743  
Old Jan 15, 2009 9:31pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Gentlemen
Could some wiser preson than me give me your thoughts on pinbars on Aud/Usd and Cad/Jpy , i am still on a steep learning curve.

Regards Gerard
Hey gerard

Put my thoughts on the charts for you

Best
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a.gif
Views:	37
Size:	11.0 KB
ID:	192274     Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	38
Size:	14.5 KB
ID:	192275    
Reply With Quote
  #18758  
Old Jan 15, 2009 11:07pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Thanks for quick reply however on my platform for aussie O 6645,C 6668,H 6700,and L 6537 so looks like a good pin so if i may ask was location good ?

Gerard
Hey Gerard

I still wouldn't play it personally because the nose isn't protruding far away from the bars to the left. If you had a long nose through .6500 or at least much bigger then the bar then yes.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18765  
Old Jan 15, 2009 11:50pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i must be getting old. it took me about 2 minutes of intense concentration to get what you were saying here. lol
LOLOL
Reply With Quote
  #18878  
Old Jan 16, 2009 12:10pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hello james,
heard ur thread is good for newbies like me... ive been very inconsistent wit my trades, always changing tf, indicators ,even style of trading. hope u and others here cld assist me on getting on my feet, im a very patient fellow....
pls tell me wat dis humble student has to do to be on the right path
Hey Squeezy welcome to the place where so many know exactly where you are at. Just grab your favorite beverage and start from page 1. Take notes along the way. And work through it 1 page at a time. Seems like a monster task, but you will be so happy you did it .

Oh and enjoy it's a lot of fun

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #18911  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:16pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
I havnt spent this much time in this thread in years and MB aint no where to be seen.

Must have a new girlfriend or something.

lol never far, don't want to steal your spotlight
Reply With Quote
  #18918  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:21pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
LOLOLOL
didn?t he say he wanted to delay that for some time..?
oh well, they always appear when least expected.

Enjoy Mike!
RM
jeez I'm only 25 not getting married in my prime :P
Reply With Quote
  #18920  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i know its always a risk to judge that but ive seen pictures of mikey. he just looks like a ladies man.
wow J16 thread turning into compliment mikey thread. Now were talking
Reply With Quote
  #18927  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:50pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i spent my 20's in varying states of inebriation and i had a blast. got married at 30 when the right one showed up.

mike is doing it the right way in my opinion.

jim
in NY talk of marriage in 20s will have you in deep **** with your friends
Reply With Quote
  #18929  
Old Jan 16, 2009 6:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
.....mmmmmm..... NY women.

We arrived in Manhatten right at the end of business for the day as everyone began walking.
Wow.
better walk fast and with the flow or you are a sitting duck
Reply With Quote
  #18932  
Old Jan 16, 2009 6:19pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kburd View Post
Hi everyone i have a quick question....
My viewpoint is friday is Take profit day clear your trades of the table. They can often be volatile and back and forth because of this. I tend to sleep in late Fridays and just trade Europe into early US if anything. Today for example I took an intraday trade on the gbp/jpy. Playing off the tendancy of what fridays do. I firstly cut my position in half and secondly my goal was to close my position out before the close of the markets at the latest. If a daily pin say triggers in early US session, well then I will leave my position on over the weekend(because my stop is probably very far off market price). So for me I still trade if there is a good setup, but the later it gets into friday the less I am interested in being in a trade let alone near my computer lol
Reply With Quote
  #18957  
Old Jan 17, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post

Mikey wears Superman pajamas when he goes to sleep and,
Chuck Norris swears by his "I love Mikey" underwear.
LOL you guys crack me up

next round is on me
Reply With Quote
  #19069  
Old Jan 19, 2009 2:48pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
There were several weekly pins I was looking at this week (u/j, c/j, e/j, g/j), but didn't take any....

Personally if I am going to play a weekly pin, and the market gaps up, I will set a buy order near the close of the gap. If you believe it is valid pin, the gap shouldn't be a reason not to play it IMO. Again not commenting on the weekly pin simply the scenario you speak of

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19074  
Old Jan 19, 2009 3:33pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Thanks Mike! If I understand correctly than in this type of scenario, by placing the buy order near the close of the gap we are looking to enter at the break of the gap vs the break of the pin? If I understand, it seem like that would the safer way to go, since there is some confirmation that the failed attempt go higher previously is not as much of a factor anymore.
well the idea is still to keep things simple. So these gaps fill most of the time. If the gap isn't all that big in comparison to a big weekly pin, the idea is wait for the gap to fill, then price will continue to go in its original direction(which in the case of your example would be long). You will then most likely be getting a slightly better price. You could of course do things a bunch of different ways and look again for confirming PA, but if you want to keep things simple, then it is easiest to wait for your gap to fill then get in long as your intention was with the PA.

Have a great trading week

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19093  
Old Jan 19, 2009 10:32pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Hi guys I am fairly new to this thread have only posted once or twice, I still have a lot to learn.Thank you for everyhting so far. I have been demoing for about a month now just trading dailys and have had some good results, ( Just need to sit tight when im right to gain maximum profit.)

But anyway I have a question about a trade I took on the EU Weekly bar that just got closed out....
Hey Dave

It is all a learning process so don't let it shake your confidence. The pinbar itself was in some traffic, but I could see the reasons some may have had an order in.

A lot of us always place our order above the HIGH of the pinbar. So in this case that would have never triggered keeping you out of this trade. Playing on a retrace or the close is much more aggressive(not that it isn't ok), but I highly suggest always waiting for a break of the bar to enter.

Take care and don't worry about it !

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19103  
Old Jan 20, 2009 4:44am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedA View Post
Hi Mike,


I see lots of people taling about pin bar in traffic. What is exactly that means?
hey Red

Basically a pinbar in traffic is when you are trading a pinbar that is stuck in some sort of sideways market. Meaning there is price bars located either right next to or around your pinbar. This can "hold up" your pinbar from running as smooth as a pinbar that is not in traffic. I made a video up in the guest section of the j16 site where I talk about "space" and this concept. It should help answer that question. Have a look, if still confused shoot me a msg

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19149  
Old Jan 20, 2009 11:53am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rooster View Post
I passed on this pin. Attached is a post i made to the private forum on Sunday afternoon - I followed my original thoughts and stayed out of it due to the bars to immediate left of the pin.

"I have spotted a possible set up on the weekly.

Pin bar with a long nose at a swing low. The low coincides with a previous major swing low (chart 1) and 61% fib of the most recent swing low to high (chart 2).

[i][color=red]There is a successful pin bar right above it however and there is arguably not...
I had a bunch of people ask about this yesterday in my webinar. These are important points when you have no space. Look how clustered and tight price is on the weekly. This will make it difficult for these pins to be as successful as a pin at a true swing low point. One important point is that people who have their charts way zoomed in, bars like this look like a lot better locations then they are. Zoom out a bit, gives a more clear view if you ask me.(the chart I posted is still too zoomed in for me but I did it to show the minor PPZ)

Here is a chart with what actually held it down. We have a minor PPZ within all this traffic. If you were to take this trade(which I think one shouldn't), you might want to stick your buy ABOVE this area. Again for those that took a loss, like kiss said your MM is in place and you move on.



Have a great one

Mike

edit attached a pic of the zoom I personally use and one can see more clearly the large amount of traffic we were in
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	37
Size:	8.0 KB
ID:	193738     Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	30
Size:	7.8 KB
ID:	193740    
Reply With Quote
  #19185  
Old Jan 21, 2009 12:50am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Jim, I agree with your words 100%. I just didn't expect the markets to tank again today, at least not so strong.

I am prepared for country collapse or not. My family has farm land and hunts and has plenty of ammo. If worst comes to worst, I am prepared. But I am hopeful for the best.

Thank you for your hard work and sharing with us new traders. I greatly appreciate it.
for what it is worth, when I was running today CNBC ran a stat( I believe this is correct, but please if I am wrong don't hold me to it). That 72% of inauguration days ended bearish(this was of course the worst % wise). Next time I will remember that stat . All about probabilities. But in the end just let the charts guide you

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19222  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:10am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
He needs to first learn how to drive, so he doesn't have to run everywhere.
Reply With Quote
  #19235  
Old Jan 21, 2009 11:49am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
nice.... & done for the week.
got to love these when they happen.
NICE!
Reply With Quote
  #19284  
Old Jan 21, 2009 5:59pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Hi Naijafx

Watching this one too. Was hoping the left and right eyes would have the same highs but it's broken up higher now. May be safer to short below 13000 round number.
yes you gotta be real careful with this. Firstly all the large up moves. But 1.3 is sitting right below the pin(which never broke). And you are trading right into a lot of support. I would be real careful with one that looked like this

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19314  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:40pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Also, try to fine tune the PPZs around Round Numders.
Reply With Quote
  #19316  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
You could have corrected my spelling Mike. lol
didn't even notice it!
Reply With Quote
  #19321  
Old Jan 21, 2009 11:18pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

lolol love you all too
Reply With Quote
  #19324  
Old Jan 22, 2009 12:03am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
I know this is make fun of mike for blasting his pecks at the gym....

But.... on another note I am almost done with Pring on Price Patterns, I was lucky my school has it on ebook from the library, but I am going to have to read it again. Although I am still a beginner and learning I recommend this book to any newcomer. Prings sections on market phsychology help newbies understand why price patterns actually work..J16 has all of this infor anyway but still lol
Yep probably the only technical analysis book I would ever recommend

and yes jeff i love you all more then beer pong(well except chris )
Reply With Quote
  #19325  
Old Jan 22, 2009 12:15am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Also, try to fine tune the PPZs around Round Numbers.
I hope this post doesn't get lost though. This is a key point for a lot of us. These round numbers are very important to market psychology and when you find one lining up with a round number you can just smile
Reply With Quote
  #19326  
Old Jan 22, 2009 12:24am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I hope this post doesn't get lost though. This is a key point for a lot of us. These round numbers are very important to market psychology and when you find one lining up with a round number you can just smile
go ahead and pull up any chart you want. Plot the big round numbers

a pic is worth more then any words(after you see this how can you not just rethink the thought of wanting to have a million indicators, or search for some secret grail that doesn't exist)
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	155
Size:	12.7 KB
ID:	194418    
Reply With Quote
  #19351  
Old Jan 22, 2009 12:35pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipshower View Post
Also USD/CAD at important box level .
The break of it to either side will decide a long term move on USD/CAD lasting at least months to years .
I am attaching both Monthly and weekly charts here for you to have a look.
I hope i am not overcrowding with my posts on this clean and clear thread.
If i am doing so let me know .


Regards
Pipshower
Hey Pipshower,

Welcome to the thread

You are certainly not crowding with your posts. These box areas are very important and James always tries to show this too. Price boxes, breaks away, boxes over and over.

So post away !

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19379  
Old Jan 22, 2009 3:40pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxsheep View Post
First post here, still reading the thread. Love what I see so far. Found this on FXDD feed. it's almost end of the day. Looks like PB high tested 61.8% fibo level. I would like to know what you guys think. should I wait for next daily bar for confirmation or short at the 50% ret of PB?

thank you!
Hey Sheep

This is actually a neutral bar. When the open and close are near the middle of the bar it is neutral. This indicates indecision and wouldn't surprise me if the BUOB from yesterday kicks in after that. When you see and open and the close in the middle and wicks that are about equal from both ends you know it is a neutral day.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19385  
Old Jan 22, 2009 4:25pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I would to hear Mike's take on this as well. This is just my understand of how PA tends to behave.
personally I almost always cancel my pending buy/sell orders. The times I consider leaving them are when you get say an IB the next day that has a pin shape going the same way. So if you look at cad/jpy right now and how the open and close are near the same as yest, with that pin looking shape. Those are the ones I would consider holding onto. Just something I tend to do, I like to be pretty strict overall and cancel my orders. Like jaroo said though Daily I will be more lenient like I stated above. Antyhing under daily, 98.9% of the time next bar doesn't break I am cancelling my orders as momentum plays a bigger role for me.

Just my thoughts
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19388  
Old Jan 22, 2009 4:33pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread View Post
Here is a trade i took today, i am still lacking what you guys see that i do not but it looked to me that price could not break that line and i took a short.

FeedbacK?
didn't quite reach the area I was watching but def is in the "zone" of our PPZs. I am still waiting for .9500 too look for a buy/sell


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	101
Size:	11.1 KB
ID:	194743    
Reply With Quote
  #19401  
Old Jan 22, 2009 6:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Mike,

Just wondering are the reason why you don't take the PB are because not enough "space" and in traffic? Another thing, if PA formed in the "zone" of the PPZ but the bounce off the PPZ is not too significant (like in your chart), do still take the PA form (if any)?
I am very picky about the areas I trade off. So to take the hourly pin like in that chart, it has to be on the round number that is above. If you noticed James posted yesterday all his intraday trades will be off round numbers. I did not know this but I do the same thing(for those in PF know in my intraday thread). So for me it is more of a waiting game. If we get the PA of the round number either way. But the zone is still there, I just prefer to wait till all things line up. Just part of what keeps me discipline.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19402  
Old Jan 22, 2009 6:13pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
In this case, do you play it as a break of the PB or as a brake of the IB...??

Regards....
In the case of an IB forming after a PB, if I decide I still want to take the trade then I leave it above the pin still. Definitely no hard and fast rules with that, just again where my comfort level is


Best
mike
Reply With Quote
  #19405  
Old Jan 22, 2009 7:00pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Hey there,
You guys are doing a great job here as always.I was wondering if you knew of an indicator that would draw out horizontal trend lines for the round numbers?Thanks in advance keep it up!!Read this thread everyday now!
here ya go if you have trouble with it shoot me a PM

example of settings I use on usd/chf

hgrid weeks - 100
hgrid pips - 10000
h line - dimgray
h line 2 - orange
gridtime - 15
time grid 240
colorhour - 16
time line - none
time line 2 - none
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 Grid_v1_0.mq4 (6.0 KB, 192 views)
Reply With Quote
  #19408  
Old Jan 22, 2009 7:20pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Thanks man,
Buuuut these are horizontal lines.I followed the setting but no luck....Is this the right indicator?
yes they are but you have to play with the settings depending on your broker. If you don't have 5 digits then you need to leave a zero off the pips setting to 1000, not 10000
Reply With Quote
  #19418  
Old Jan 22, 2009 9:15pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OGW View Post
Hi mbqb11,

There is a book about the structures of the forex market, a while ago it was suggested as a must read on some thread that I can't remember, I tried to look for it on Amazone but couldn't find it either, I wonder if you know what I'm talking about and if so could tell me the right title and the Author's name... Thanks a lot.
Sebastien.
Hi Sebastien,

Do you mean this thread?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19419  
Old Jan 22, 2009 9:17pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
hi teachers. can you all please tell me how you best calculate & then plot your ppz's on your charts? what platforms do you use to do this? ie tradestation? do these platforms do it automatically for you or do you have to enter the previous period's (monthly, weekly, daily) highs/lows/closes & then it automatically plots the lines for you? thx.
PPZs can be done on any platofrm. It is just observing areas of support and resistance. They are not done by any indicator or what not.

Check these posts out by James(within an older post I made)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post2252116

Best

Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, Jan 22, 2009 9:37pm
Reply With Quote
  #19421  
Old Jan 22, 2009 9:37pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thexder View Post
Might want to update the link to this one to go to the specific post directly

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post2252116

The one you posted was a cleanup link and someone might accidentally try to report the post.
HAHA that was a first for me! Thanks
Reply With Quote
  #19424  
Old Jan 22, 2009 11:39pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
thank you very much mike, i truly appreciate it. i had thought that "ppz" meant "pivot point zone" but it really means "price pivot zone." so they are not classical pivot points, but just basic support & resistance levels that are either respected (price bounces off & retreats) or breaks thru and then resistance becomes support. right?
so...at what point do i know which way to go? at what point will i know that price is bouncing off resistance & retreating, so i go short or breaking up & thru and i should go long? is it all in the pa? or do...

Hey DK

Yes PPZ is price pivot zone or the flip b/w support and resistance. Pivot points are floor trader pivots and are calculated using OHLC values.

As for how to trade them, there are many ways to integrate them in your trading. The easiest and most common is waiting for price to make its way to one and using PA to confirm that it is holding. Yes simple as that, just takes practice.

Here is the Usd/Cad

Notice the triple top. Resistance at 1.3. So now we look for a flip or PPZ to be created if we break above the highs here. So when price comes back to this area we look for PA to tip us off if it will turn into support.

Hope that helps

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	50
Size:	9.5 KB
ID:	194856    
Reply With Quote
  #19464  
Old Jan 23, 2009 10:44am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by malvarezdel View Post
Today, my sell order on EUR/CHF PB was triggered around 4:00 am, I have my stop loss a few pips above the PB?s nose. Since that, "a shower" of good news came for EUR and the trade came against me. I am these kind of people who thinks that lossers MUST be cutted ASAP, and Price Action MUST rock from the beggining of the trade. So I want to ask a couple of things to the experienced members of this GREAT thread:

1.- What do you think about PB formation, congestion, S/R Area?
2.- How would you mannage this trade?

Thanks in advance for your support....
Hey Mal

Be careful here. See how the open and close are in the middle of the bar. And the length of the nose, and the length of the bottom of the pin are about equal. This is a neutral bar. This shows indecision in the markets. Make sure the pins you take have a nice long nose.

Have a great weekend
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19522  
Old Jan 25, 2009 12:11pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by flyer415 View Post
My understanding of how James looks at those bars is he would call them "neutral bars". From what i can see the open and close are almost identical. Now maybe my eyes are old and i couldn't see the attached chart properly.

Yep those are simply neutral bars. To become BUOBs/or BEOBS. you need the close much more towards the high or low respectfully.


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19581  
Old Jan 26, 2009 12:57pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hello guys,
greetings to all
i think its time to start demo trading wat ive learnt from here
hope u guys dnt mind, wld be posting some charts to find out from u guys whether my analysis is correct
thank you
go for it, that's what we hang around for

and demo first is the smart thing

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19584  
Old Jan 26, 2009 1:11pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hope i drew the support/resistance well
cheers
yep your s/r looks good. Might see a pull back to 1.3 ppz first, or not. I might only make one recommendation as per James. You will do yourself a great thing if you start on the daily/weekly. Things are much easier to understand and it is the best thing those new to this material can do to benefit from.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19586  
Old Jan 26, 2009 1:24pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
thnx mike,
ur words r truly golden
ill switch them now to daily and redraw my s/r levels
ill repost the chart but itll be daily
pls wat else do u think i need to work on apart from pa, divergence and s/r levels or am i ok wit these
If you practice just PA + S/R + PPZs(line up with rd numbers). That is all you need. You can use some confluence of properly drawn fibs/MAs if you prefer. But focus on learning to identify key s/r areas and how to read PA and if you take only the best looking trades. You will learn this business much faster. The rest is fighting your ego(discipline /greed/ patience etc). Of course proper MM should go without saying.

You sound like you are on the right path with a willingness to learn and that will take you a far way. Of course the finish line is up to you

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19594  
Old Jan 26, 2009 3:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
i thought s/r and ppz were the same thing
i know how to draw fibs pretty well
which mas do u use
yeah! i bliv im on the right path.....trying to turn trading to full time, with all the unemployment around, best way to be my own boss

thnx
Yes PPZ are just s/r when they flip and you have both. I don't use any MAs personally, you will find a lot of people here use the 150, 365 emas. They aren't magic but can help with confluence and getting a general sense of the market.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19623  
Old Jan 27, 2009 1:48am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
Right now I am looking at the USD/JPY 1 hour chart. I drew up a pennant. I have it breaking this pennant briefly to the upside, but finding stiff resistance at the 61.2 retrace. I will wait for the bottom break of the pennant before going short. Any thoughts or opinions? Sorry I will figure out soon how to post a chart
I generally don't like to post the lower timeframe charts as I feel it gets newer readers to this thread off on the wrong foot.

But the concepts remain the same. I will watch 90 big round number + ppz for reaction. Until then I stay on the sidelines personally


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	106
Size:	15.9 KB
ID:	196842    
Reply With Quote
  #19626  
Old Jan 27, 2009 1:55am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
Thanks for your thoughts. I will look that up as I have absolutely no clue what you're talking about Edit: the ppz part anyway.

PPZ = price pivot zone. This is a flip b/w support and resistance. Notice how price swivels in a zone around the 90 mark.

You can read more from James here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

oh an what Jaeroo says is VERY important above
Reply With Quote
  #19629  
Old Jan 27, 2009 2:03am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I guess you did see Jli's post number and member date. lol

New member and starting on this thread. What a lucky guy.
nostalgic Man how time flies

But seriously if you follow the rules laid out in post 1, work your way through this thread slowly...you will find a bright light that continues to get brighter
Reply With Quote
  #19681  
Old Jan 27, 2009 11:57am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags View Post
Not sure if you played this one Mike, but your prediction was right on. Went to 90 and got smacked down. There must have been some decent orders sitting at 90.00.
Let's see what happens next.

Tom
Hey Tom,

Where's my emails? :P

No prediction, just logic

Was a 4hr pin of the 90, trading into heavy traffic(blue box). If you took this you better have taken your profit or moved your stops. I will wait for a better play

Hope the baby is doing well

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	95
Size:	10.4 KB
ID:	197074    
Reply With Quote
  #19682  
Old Jan 27, 2009 11:59am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
this isn't as easy as many make out.

still losing in my demo account. guess I'm trading too many "traffic" pins.
far from easy, takes a lot of time and practice...Most won't make it, just the reality. But those that don't get lost in indicator hell, and practice and learn to read a chart in a simplistic manner have a shot at least. Then they have to battle their egos. The true battle.


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19706  
Old Jan 27, 2009 6:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackinc View Post
Does it sit comfortable with you?

You could look back and see that beautiful pin in december and compare?

In my mind its not a 'simple' trade to make. There's too many decisions to make, too much to go wrong. Why put yourself through the stress? Wait for an easy one

IMHO.
couldn't have said it better. These types of bars show up often. You have to think is it worth it or better to wait and sit on your hands. Doesn't mean taking this bar is wrong, but I see much better bars then this to wait for.

This one is playing on a tight rope if you asked me

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	69
Size:	8.7 KB
ID:	197216    
Reply With Quote
  #19711  
Old Jan 27, 2009 9:53pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolpie View Post
Cool thread, I'm learning a lot

One question though, what's the logic behind pin bars and inside bars and why do they work?
Hey lolpie,

Pinbars are exhaustion bars. Located at the right place they tell a good story. Basically price is trying to push one way, and is rejected over a certain period time(considered quickly), to produce our pinbar. Basically price is lying where it really wants to go. This can happen for numerous reasons. Take a simple example. Price is consolidating in a range. This is known as a typical area for traders to watch. They look for a breakout of this range. Many times orders pile up on both sides. Say price tries to breakout LONG out of this range. Well if the proper orderflow has built up you can have what many refer to as a false breakout. This may come in the form of what we say as a pinbar. So the dynamics behind the bar can be numerous but located at the right places give great hints to market action.

Inside bars are consolidation bars. The bar itself is within the prior bar. This means the range is shrinking. Generally speaking when things shrink down or consolidate a breakout or "move" follows at some point. Think of it as squeezing the alst bit of toothpaste to the top and holding your finger over the end. Eventually the toothpaste will makes its way out, or breakout.

Again these are simplistic examples, but should give you a general idea

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19713  
Old Jan 27, 2009 10:28pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Been hanging around for several months now. reading from the very beginning, and book mark every day for this thread.

So I decide to start showing up and chat with you guys for more learning.

Ok, my first chart :P

Please comments, I planed this one, entry on Pinbar 50% retrace (majory of my trading is triggered at 50% of the PB) and Pinbar break.

Note: Im still on demo since Oct 08. But treating it seriously like live account. Not planing to live trading unless will double my demo account basing on the 0.5% to 1% risk per trade. up 50% so far...

Hey Pip,

Welcome to the thread and your first post on FF too - Great to hear ab out your success so far. You are taking ALL the right steps by demo trading first and not rushing into it. Most don't and then fail for that reason. So good job there.

Your lines are all very good, but the question is...Is a bar that is stuck b/w those two levels you drew + heavy support and traffic, worth it to risk 1% of your bank roll on, and on a retrace. I can't tell you that it is or it isn't. Because that will be part of what you develop as a trader. But my advice is sitting out these so-so trades will take you a long way. There is a lot to hold up this trade, so if you do take a trade like this your stop has to get to b/e SUPER fast. Makes it very hard to play in my opinion.

Again welcome aboard

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19717  
Old Jan 27, 2009 11:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Thanks for the encouragement
Mike. actually, my trading is very conservative....
Hey Pip,

The main thing I am trying to stress, is the amount of traffic this pinbar is in. If we zoom out our chart we can basically see that at best we can hope price can make it down to that lower area you have down. But that comes back to the big question I always ask. Is this really worth trading? With pinbars like the usd/chf the other day that pop up, is trading a pinbar in this much congestion worth it. I can't tell you if it is or isn't. To me after doing this for awhile, I can say those types of trades I don't even give a second though to trading personally.

I marked off two boxes on this chart. These boxes are located directly under your pin, and could cause a lot of trouble. So instead of trading a bar like this, my advice is to wait for the bars that have more room to run. Basically I don't see anything wrong with your analysis, but I just see this as an overall small window to be trading within knowing what is located to the left and beneath that pin.

Hope that makes sense and again just my views

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	67
Size:	9.3 KB
ID:	197310    
Reply With Quote
  #19718  
Old Jan 27, 2009 11:46pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Poplar, I think.....might work, but it's in a clear traffic zone?
LOL funny pic

This and the chf/jpy are exactly the same in how I view them. In terms of support directly under(see previous post I made on eur/usd here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19706 ) and traffic.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19742  
Old Jan 28, 2009 5:12am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Honestly, since I started following PA, I never......look at fundemantal stuff....and honestly, I never consider so called psyco level like 00...

Should I?
00 levels are not fundamental levels, those are for us technicians ...and they are very important to me personally as a trader

Don't worry about the fundamental stuff. Sure some people use both, or just fundies, not trying to get them riled up. But a lot of us don't even look at news calendars ever. Just let the charts guide you.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19787  
Old Jan 28, 2009 1:49pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
G

On a side note, I'll love to see somebody come up with a logical and technical answer to that support which IMO came out of nowhere, let's see if this could be an occasion where we can justify this market move? Jim, Mike, Jarroo, Rac, Jeff, Others...???

Regards,
Ghous.
Someone asked me about this in my webinar on monday and my answer was for me this is a no trade because there is a lack of space, and room to run underneath.

here is the chart that I had in my webinar. The blue box(ppz), is so close to the bottom of the pin(which is b/c lack of space). Looks like it literally hit the top of the box before turning around. This is why I avoid these trades personally. Otherwise if you still like the trade after knowing all this, then you just take it on the chin and move to the next trade.

Take care
Mike

edit* Never traded this pair and also the magenta lines were me trying to show lack of space LOL sorry
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	54
Size:	9.4 KB
ID:	197663    
Reply With Quote
  #19891  
Old Jan 29, 2009 2:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
How . . .

How did you keep persisting ?
Doesn't surprise me one bit.


As much as i have learned from James about trading, I can tell you I have learned even far more from him about life. Lucky to have got to know him so well. He is truly a good energy.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19922  
Old Jan 29, 2009 7:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
http://www.pokerstars.com

On a more serious note I dont have that pair on two different feeds for some reason and thats the third time this week I have wanted to look at it.
EASY that is no gamble either if you treat it like a business. Poker paid my way through college and IMO poker is no different then trading

Sorry HAD to say something, and I bet half those that saw the post rolled there eyes and said here comes Mike :P

Have a great last trading day all!

Mike

PS The reason I picked the videos I did for guest section is at the time, there were a LOT of posts about recent pinbars, and traffic and the meaning of space. I felt it fitting.

PPS I appreciate the thanks, but all gratitude is owed to James for going along with the requests and creating such a great place(both here and PF). I simply am along for the fun ride, and he leads by example. I'm only ~7 years into this. In another 20 maybe I can have my name as closely associated with his and feel it right.
Reply With Quote
  #19926  
Old Jan 29, 2009 7:35pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
What ?! Thats pretty awesome, good for you. Did you approach it like you approach trading ? Really picky and only taking the A+++ poker hands ?

I believe trading and poker are worlds apart, thats just me. We shall agree to disagree my friend. I still enjoy an occasional game nonetheless though. Just between friends.
Trading is all about probabilities. We look for good setups, to put us in the best position to win money. It is up to the market after we enter. We use proper money mgmt, to ensure we remain in the game long enough for our edge to play out.

Poker is all about probabilities. We look to get our money in good when the probabilities are in our favor. It is up to how the cards fall after we commit our money. We use proper money mgmt, to ensure we remain in the game long enough for our edge to play out.


And yes my trading and poker game is exactly the same. I lose all the small pots but when the money gets in big, I am almost always coming out on top
Reply With Quote
  #19932  
Old Jan 29, 2009 8:06pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
hey guys, can i jump in & ask a quick question? we all know by now that the daily & weekly timeframes are the most reliable (& a novice should start there) and that the 1h isn't as so. but how do you all feel about the 4h in general? how confident are you in 4h set-ups? or even 8h? does anyone ever look at the 8h? on that timeframe (& depending on your feed) it looks to me like each bar sums-up a given trading session (ie asian, london, u.s.). just curious, thx.
I like to think of it like this

Price is only as reliable as where it is found. Location is everything. Be it location on the hourly or location on the 3hr/4hr/8hr/ etc. The price we see is simply the aggregation of many actions. If found in the right places, the probabilities raise in our favor.

The reason the higher the timeframe is generally considered more accurate/reliable, is because it contains more information. A 5min pin only has 5mins of information. So how reliable is that to hold over X period of time. Where as a daily bar has 24hours of information. But, that doesn't mean that every daily bar is reliable, just as it doesn't mean every 5 min bar is unreliable.

That is where I put the pieces to this. Location is everything, Price Action bars are simply my trigger.

So it is really up to you what you want to watch, where you are comfortable. Practice and demo, will show you this.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #19944  
Old Jan 29, 2009 10:45pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gannina View Post
Sorry to interrupt. I'm trying to get the concept of confluence down, but I never know how many fib retraces I should make and how far back to go on the chart.

Anyone have any tips for finding good confluences areas and how far back we should look and do retraces? I'm currently trading off the daily chart. Thanks!
Hey Gannina

Confluence can come in many forms. You can have a few fibs. Or a fib, and a ppz. A fib an MA etc. It is multiple factors lining up to create an area of interest.

My personal take on FIBS are to use the most obvious swing points. I often see people form fitting fibs to every little peak and trough. I don't believe in this personally.

Here is a chart of usd/jpy using the two main swing high points, and our current(if it holds) swing low point. Notice the levels of confluence lining up with a PPZ as well as FIBS.

Once you find these areas, they can be a head up and with confirming PA, a very high probability setup.

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	86
Size:	16.1 KB
ID:	198315    
Reply With Quote
  #19947  
Old Jan 29, 2009 11:23pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gannina View Post
Thanks mbqb11 for the chart! Sorry for being newbish again, but where are the PPZ zones? I am not very good at finding these. You also referred to a swing low I'm not sure where that is.
Hey Gannina

The swing low point, is where both fibs are connected on my chart, the bottom area, where price is around now. This is the lowest bottom from the recent highs I drew the fibs from

As for PPZ check this and practice looking for the obvious ones.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

On my chart they are the pink horizontals. These are areas of flip b/w support and resistance. Although not extremely prominent they are still there in that chart. Here is a chart with a much more obvious PPZ.



Best
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	58
Size:	11.4 KB
ID:	198332    
Reply With Quote
  #19948  
Old Jan 29, 2009 11:27pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Cheers, Mike.

I have the chart below, is the pink area a good confluence level? TL, 150, ppz and 2 fibo. I saw the I4b but I was sleeping

Would u trade this setup? and what rank would u put for this one, A+, A- or B?

many thanks again
Hey Pip,

I personally never trade Inside Bars on anything lower then the daily. They happen way to frequently(due to the dead time), and are just too aggressive for me with all the other good setups that come.

With that said, IMO your chart could be much more clean, and explain the same points. This is exactly what my chart looks like and the area I am watching.

It is simply the heavy support at the round number of 1.4500, you can go ahead and fit fibs, MAs trendlines in there, but I see no need. When we hit this area, I look for good confirming PA that is not iffy but clear. If it happens I trade, if it doesn't I pass. Simple is always better in my eyes.

Hope that helps

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	68
Size:	12.7 KB
ID:	198334    
Reply With Quote
  #20213  
Old Feb 2, 2009 1:01pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MinceMeat View Post
Hey Raczekfx,

Thanks for your input. Yeah I'm thinking of narrowing it down to just a few for now and progressively add on once I get comfortable trading a particular pair.
I'll just give you the other side of the coin. I think it is better to watch more pairs, and look for the BEST possible trades. By watching more pairs you will be less antsy to find something that isn't all that great of a trade if you watch a couple of pairs. If you start out new as James recommends on daily/weekly. In reality the best trades will jump out at you. Say you watch 15-20 pairs. Scanning the daily might take you 15-20 mins being new at it. You should know within a minute of a trade is really A+ or not. You scan your 20 pairs or so everyday, most days you will be closing down your charts.

Just my school of thought

Best of luck

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20313  
Old Feb 3, 2009 4:35pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio View Post
Does anybody see the reason why not to trade consecutive matching lows on usd/chf H4 chart?
In my opinion to trade two matchings lows purely off the 4hr charts, is just not a significant enough reason to enter a trade. Protect those Dollars in your account and save them for the better ones.

Matching highs/lows to me are best when you have a lot of them on the daily/weekly. That is when my interest is piqued. Or they are good when you are in a trade as a continuation to hold when price breaks them.

Just my views

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20426  
Old Feb 4, 2009 12:02pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baba G View Post
Is there any other price action apart from Jims? i dont think so lol

Baba G! Hello buddy
Reply With Quote
  #20437  
Old Feb 4, 2009 1:41pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
IMO not a good one because...
1)the shape of the PB-->the tail and the body is almost the same


Regards...
yep on your chart as is, that is simply a neutral bar....when open and close are near center of the bar like that
Reply With Quote
  #20565  
Old Feb 5, 2009 11:45am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ady27 View Post
Thanks,

I guess that some of the charts have been removed, they are not there. Continue my journey through the thread and haven't found a post how to trade these patterns either.

Is there any pdf or document that explains how to trade: dblhc, dbhlc, buob, beob ect.

help needed.
Thanks josh for posting that. Was just going through the posts and was about to make another chart

Also the first few charts James posted for me must be clicked now. They are not gone, you just have to click the file name under his posts.

If you still have questions let me know I can throw a chart up too

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20566  
Old Feb 5, 2009 11:46am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hey guys, i kno we r strictly pa & trade wat u c on ur charts here but was wondering is there any particular news to look out for
ive not checked on any news for wks now, dnt kno whether to look out for particular news like non farm payroll, unemployment and so on dat could really move the mkt...

thnx guys
James once said "I avoid the news like the plague." And I agree very much. I personally only take note of the bigger news like NFP and what not, just to be careful with spreads widening and slippage on potential new orders. But in terms of looking out at news. I personally care less. :P


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20574  
Old Feb 5, 2009 12:21pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
thnks guys for the fast reply, hope others took note as well
as for me, i think im going to be avoiding the news, dnt want to add to my problems, strictly pa for me
two 2 questions guys,

1. wat do u do when a trade goes against u , do u hope for the bbest for it to retrace back to ur be or jst watch it take u out at ur sl
2.there r some trades dat when u c, u cld enter based on fib, tl, divergence or watever but dnt giv u good pa to enter
do u enter or wait strictly for pa
thnx
hope those were sensible questions, shld throw more as they bother...
Hey S,

To answer your first question. I have a plan and stick to it. Yes it is that simple for me. I have my entry plan, and have my exit plan. Sure it varies from trade to trade. But I follow it. I never hope for anything. I just execute my plan, and the rest is up to the market for me. If a trade goes against me from the start I don't panic and get out if nothing happened to execute my exit strategy. My stop loss is in place because and that point the trade becomes invalid.

Question 2, is I always wait for PA. Entering blindly on divergence can destroy you fast in a trending market. So many trades all the time, might as well wait for some solid confirmation. Some people are more aggressive traders and enter blindly in certain spots, but I think especially if you are new to just stick to solid PA at solid locations.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20589  
Old Feb 5, 2009 1:03pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Mike might have played some of these Gbp breakouts that were available today. wait for him to appear in a minute

I'll just recommend to you to go through all his videos on the pf's guest section atleast if you're not a member of the pf so you have an idea how the man does it, he is a real fan and a great expert playing such breakouts.

To me there was'nt any pullback after it broke the trendline, the only slight pull back was a tiny Ib on the 1H not sure if that was good enough...let's wait for Mike for further clarification...

Hey Ghous

Yeah I didn't take them, because I wasn't a huge fan of the breakout pattern(for me to play a breakout I look for clear patterns). Secondly the area I was watching just didn't close above the area I was looking for to play in my intraday style. So overall things were close, but not exactly how I liked it so stuck to my rules and stayed out. Never the less missed a bunch of moves, but that is how the story goes. I know Jim(jaroo) caught a lot


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20623  
Old Feb 5, 2009 4:53pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

great spot to look for price action

you seriously don't need anything else on your charts, sure if you want to have some fibs or MAs for some confluence


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	151
Size:	13.1 KB
ID:	201446    
Reply With Quote
  #20626  
Old Feb 5, 2009 5:20pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Question on the Chart (got that software now ) PA confirmation of a Breakout of the 125 ?
sorry that was from an old post of a 1hr arrow BUOB off 125 ppz zone flip

here was that trade


ps Jig waiting for that PM
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	112
Size:	16.2 KB
ID:	201454    
Reply With Quote
  #20634  
Old Feb 5, 2009 5:39pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
After the break higher of 125 this buob off the 125 round number is a retest of that area.
we then moved up to 130 back again with another pin off 125. it happens alot at the round numbers.
now we have broken convincingly the 130, look for a retest. & repeat..
Jeff knows his stuff
Reply With Quote
  #20636  
Old Feb 5, 2009 5:50pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Mike,

Can you tell me if the chart in post 20627 looks like a good setup?
Hey Bertie

While I don't have a pin on my chart here is my analysis

Gbp overall made big moves across the board today. So that pin could be nothing more then the pause before the next move. What i mean is that pin to me is not in a strong enough place to warrant a trade on my own. One might take a pin like that back to the strong PPZ area which like gbp/jpy is under us and in this case at the 1.4500 area as depicted on my chart. So where do I see the best opportunity? Again down at the PPZ flip of 1.4500

Just my take

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	95
Size:	20.0 KB
ID:	201475    
Reply With Quote
  #20638  
Old Feb 5, 2009 6:06pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Hey Arcus

My answers below in bold


Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hi guys,

I got few questions to ask. Basically this kind of situation confused me a lot.
Before that, the chart that I show is 4H charts but I look at daily and then find PA on daily PPZ. Don't look below H4.

Chart #1 (NZDUSD)

What do you guys think about the BUOB? If it breaks, would you guys take it as there is congestion areas marked with blue.

Yep You marked off exactly what the problem would be trading into that. Generally these bars are to be played at swing lows. This is a swing high and trading into tough area.

Chart #2 (USDCHF)

The trade I'm currently in. Entered on BUOB on H4. Any comments about the pros and cons of this trade. I noticed the round number 1.800 (daily PPZ), my first target.

Again careful here, you are trading a BUOB at a swing high. It feels like you are trying to force a trade a bit more. Check out the daily what you are now trading into. Also the better BUOB was at 1.15 on the 4hr. See the difference?

Chart #3 (CADCHF)

PB on H4, off daily PPZ. Though the size is small but I think the location is good. Triple top, divergence, off daily PPZ. Any pros and cons?

I wouldn't really even call this much of a pin. Like you said very small in size. Body and nose are about the same. Trading right into a lot of highs and support. I would be careful here. Not an A trade, wait for something better.

Thanks. Sorry for too much question in 1 post. Just been able to look charts now.

Again these are just my views

p.s: sorry for the bad english lol in hurry to recheck.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	49
Size:	8.6 KB
ID:	201480    
Reply With Quote
  #20640  
Old Feb 5, 2009 6:53pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Thanks Mike. Appreciate that. BUOB - Swing low and vice versa, now I see the difference. Just another follow-up Q about the NZDUSD. Like in the chart, directly above the BUOB I marked is congestion area. So do you wait for price to break all those areas before looking for PA? Just want to know how you would look at those kind of areas, I mean your thought process (except leave it for later, then look it back).

Well you can approach nzd/usd from a few ways. At least from my perspective. With this type of area, if we see the previous support of that congestion turn into resistance(where we are now). You might look to use this FLIP(ppz), to play off. So instead of trading into it, you want to try to trade away from it. I think the chart explains it better

I would personally prefer to wait to see a retest of .5000 and create a double bottom, or watch this area. But you could trade off the middle area(blue box ppz).

Just thought I would show a few things you could look for. Chart looks messier then it is


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	50
Size:	11.8 KB
ID:	201500    
Reply With Quote
  #20669  
Old Feb 5, 2009 10:03pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

May i ask what issue did u have with this pinbar?

Ta Gerard
Hey Gerard,

Post 20636 was my answer to post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=20627


Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20672  
Old Feb 5, 2009 11:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcov View Post
Well I'm not Mike but for me that Bullish Pin Bar for me is not a decent one just by judging its size compared to the prior bar...

But then again if you check carefully..."the path of least resistance is downward" meanwhile there are quite plenty of "traffic" if you want to go long..

In any case that's my view
yep my thoughts exactly. When you get a huge move up or down. To try to catch the knife with a small pin is dangerous game. You need something to hold it up more then just a small pin.

Thanks xcov

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20839  
Old Feb 9, 2009 2:15pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
...

My Clock's gone Bonkers perhaps...

or perhaps it's the 4 dec 5 dec dilema thingie...
remember spread is just relative to the size these types of pairs move in a day. They end up being not much different then any other pair. You just position size and everything is the same.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #20843  
Old Feb 9, 2009 2:23pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
That's right but at the end of the day there is a difference between say "30 pip SL and a 60 pip tp" and a "300 pip SL and a 600 pip tp" it has a close link with your account size and risk appetite, risk/reward is'nt everything...
actually there is no difference, the only difference comes from those who don't understand position sizing and have the wrong account types for their account size(ie a mini account for a 500$ bankroll)

If the pair with a 300 pip sl and 600 pip take profit moves 2000 pips a day. Not different then the euro moving 100 pips a day and you are having a 30 pip sl 60 pip tp value. Just chop a zero off scenario one and you are right wehre you started.

It is all relative, and is a common mistake about spreads and all that.
Reply With Quote
  #20926  
Old Feb 10, 2009 1:08pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

strong PPZ area, let's see if we turn back into support
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	202
Size:	17.7 KB
ID:	203585    
Reply With Quote
  #20935  
Old Feb 10, 2009 2:52pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by G550 View Post
I've got a similar area as well. Seems like all the pound pairs are lining up close to ppz's. So what sort of PA would you look for to go long? A bounce and retest? Pin? I'm sure there are several but nothing too clear would show up on the daily so one would have to look at a lower time frame, no?
I would be willing to look for PA on h1/h4/daily etc. It may come it may not. It may be today/tommorow/next week. The important thing to me is to correctly identify these important areas, and then be patient and let the market come to me. If PA is iffy, I pass. No need to chase this one. Many important areas will be hit today/tomm/next month/next year


Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21085  
Old Feb 11, 2009 1:17pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
how would you play an ob that closes at high/low of bar & then there is no retrace in the next bar? my guess would be not tradeable. & that ob's are only tradeable if there is a retrace in the next bar and then moves back and breaks previous high/low of ob. thanku.

Hmm not quite sure what you mean here dk. If you have an outside bar you trade it like a pin. Where you can play a break of the high/low of the outside bar to enter.

So if you have a BUOB, I would place my buy order above the high of the BUOB. If the next bar never breaks the high, then I would personally cancel my order.

If that wasn't your question my apologies

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21234  
Old Feb 12, 2009 12:57pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
My thoughts are in the charts bro .

As Mike put it today, everything is all a bit "chop" all over the place . . .
yep we gotta be patient when the market wants to "fight". There are still setups and gotta wait for the good ones. Often as traders we want to force the issue b/c we know something IS about to happen.
Reply With Quote
  #21267  
Old Feb 12, 2009 5:43pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by R Richards View Post
Hey JD, is that really a Pin Bar? My understanding is that the close must be higher than the open for a bullish Pin Bar. Unless you were looking at something else. But then again i am a newbie at this price action game.
close and open just need to be within prior bar

a note that. I always prefer to see a higher close for a bullish Pinbar. and vice versa on a bearish. That is just part of the "making a better trade" thing

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21284  
Old Feb 12, 2009 8:29pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Hi,

Can anyone help me to confirm the following 2 Pinbar are both in traffic and not great place to trade?

Just learning to filter more trades out Many thanks again to u guys
Yep you got it Pip. When you look immediately to the left of a price bar and there is consolidation/sideways action. If not trade in the right spot/area this can be very problematic for a trade to follow through. IMO when first learning this material avoiding problem areas and looking for those big obvious PA bars, is the one of the best ways towards success.

Take care
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21293  
Old Feb 12, 2009 10:23pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
My trading mate and I took a retrace and break entry for Wedesday's PB.
Hope mike can comment on this one too
Hey Pip

The gbp/jpy is the nicest of all the bars I have seen posted recently. It doesn't have a ton of space but is off a very nice level.

The usd/jpy pin was very small, but off a nice level. I wouldn't play the usd/jpy pin out right. I got in on a smaller timeframe and knowing the pin was there has helped me hold it and it has since rocketed off which is nice.

Your chart on the gbp/jpy looks good, b/c of not a ton of space we have to watch that 132 area first like you have on your chart

Well done

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21299  
Old Feb 12, 2009 10:59pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Mike,
If you don't mind. Can you post your entry so we can analyze how you manage/take your trade.
Sure I won't do this often b/c I am apprehensive about putting up the lower timeframes on this thread. As per James recommendations(which I fully agree and stress) about higher timeframe trading I feel that can be the wrong thing to do for so many newer traders to this thread. That is my disclaimer.

Part of my intraday trading like all my trading is focused heavily on PPZs and my integration with large round numbers. As per my post(s) in my thread I had spoke about how I had been heavily watching the 90 level on usd/jpy and I had been looking to get long on if conditions presented(as it also presented a breakout + pullback conditions ala daily pin).

Here are the two pictures I posted in my thread, and I simply decided to hold this trade(stop now at b/e), as my belief coupled with PA(such as daily pin and other yen pairs showing bullish signs-yen weakness).

My entry was the BUOB with the arrow. We had one BUOB form that I passed on due to size and close, but after the next larger one, this was a good high probability area for me to get in. When the snapshot was taken is where I would have taken profit had I not had a belief we were due for a move higher. It turned out to be right and now we will see what tonight brings.


Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	83
Size:	33.1 KB
ID:	205002     Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	83
Size:	30.5 KB
ID:	205003    
Reply With Quote
  #21303  
Old Feb 12, 2009 11:11pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default



Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Mike does this exact same entry look familar to you??
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post

Its the exact same break of the 4 hour BUOB I took last week. The wedge breakout pull back BUOB. Coincidence? Maybe.
Reply With Quote
  #21305  
Old Feb 12, 2009 11:20pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Thanks a lot Mike Don't worry bout it as I only demo J16 stuff on daily and only if I go lower, H4 would be the max. I just want to see how you implement your breakout+pullback. New stuff for me. Your feed look totally different with me (ibfx and fxpro). Anyway, thanks again Mike.
Can't look different that is the hourly chart and fxpro

That is a snapshot from when I took the trade from earlier today

Glad to hear you taking the right steps too

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21389  
Old Feb 13, 2009 11:28am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cvcamper View Post
Im not sure If I will be staying in trading, as outside of life calls, but I would like you all to know this..... This past week of trading has been my first profitbale week EVER in trading, it is all thanks to the people on this thread. Not for calls, but teaching me to REMOVE my indicators off of my screen, and let S+R and PA dictate where I trade, thank you, VERY much, you have taught me something AMAZING!
way to go CV! Simple s/r + PA, you will never look back

Congrats and enjoy the weekend

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21438  
Old Feb 14, 2009 1:16pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
For a long time I have thought of myself as a patient individual who does not easily give in to fear or greed. After trading forex for a few months it seems almost as if I developed a gambler's personality that was greedy, scared and had no patience. I lost a lot of money in the process, but luckily did not blow my account. Thanks to this thread I am starting to notice the beginings of some major changes in my trading personality, but I still have a long way to go.
I enjoyed reading your post Pip. Forex will bring out the best and worst in our personalities. If you noticed after only a few months some of your flaws you are WAY ahead of the game. You get traders who let their egos get in front of them for years and years, account after account before just giving up. Good to recognize this and take a hold of it early on, will serve you well.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21482  
Old Feb 15, 2009 9:55pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyonspot View Post
This last weekly bar on USDCAD has a higher high and lower low than the last bar, but does it qualify as a BUOB? I would like to see the close much closer to the high in order to play it as such. Thoughts/advice?
Hey Johnny

Yes technically speaking on my chart it is a buob(higher high, and lower low, with a close near the upper portion). I also always like a very high close.

But look how much the market is consolidating and sideways. These bars are real tough to play. This indicates a lot of choppiness in the market making bars like this better to pass on. Remember location is everything.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21485  
Old Feb 15, 2009 11:12pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
hey mike, what's the lowest time frame you would trade a buob/beob? or do you just like to see space/confluence? i think this is the bar formation i am least comfortable trading. i like the ib's & pin's the most. thx.
I have traded this pattern down to the 5min timeframe. It is all about learning how price(all the components) works, combining the knowledge of support/resistance and price action analysis. The bar is simply the trigger point and the bunching of information in a reoccurring pattern that we can easily recognize. The concept of space is to help those learn one such way to trade price action.

Space basically means that in the immediate area there is less resistance/support. This will help your trade move easier through the upcoming areas. By locating say a pin at a swing high with a lot of space, we are using that space to help make our trade move easier lower. Now by itself that doesn't mean every bar in space will work. Once you can combine a good area(say with confluence), and space, you are now upping those odds for the trade to work.

I also take trades that are not in any space. This then comes back to the location of the bar and why a pattern such as a BUOB might be the tip off for the upcoming move.

The most important things to focus on in the beginning are identifying clear price action bars, and only trading them at areas that make the best possible trades. The number one thing I see people doing wrong is simply trading the patterns without thought to why the pattern is occuring. So a lot of people will open their chart see a price bar in the shape of the pin, and assume it is complete to trade. When in reality we need to look at everything around that price bar to understand if that price bar is being validated by what is around it.

Don't get me wrong. Part of the learning curve is always going to be the same. First you learn to read the price bars. So you open your chart and see a BUOB and assume price will go higher. Then you begin to learn about location. Then you add in support/resistance, other confluence, and then the pieces will begin to fall into place.

Sorry if I went off on a tangent

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21490  
Old Feb 16, 2009 12:18am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
Hi

I am only at pg 145 of this thread, still has alot to catch up. I saw this pinbar in the daily on the GU, I am not sure is this a good pinbar and is this considered an A class trade or it is a bad trade.
Hey Ray

That is a pinbar, but it is at a swing low. Bearish pins we are looking for at swing high points

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21558  
Old Feb 16, 2009 12:13pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by krue View Post
Can not agree more, Mike's comment is as always concisive and get to the point very precisely.

Mike, simply a quick question, did you ever make a rough estimation approximately how much improvement of winning rate could be achieved comparing trading, say, a Pin Bar straight, vs by judging the quality of the setup in light of the surrounding sentiment? I ask this for the reason I didn't see too much difference between a PA setup vs whatever price action the market gave to me around PPZ. I have no offence here, simply what I obversed so far. talking...
Hey Krue

I think I understand your question. You are saying how much of a difference does it make by judging what is going on around the bar? And it can/will make all the difference in the world. No 2 bars are the same and that is where time and experience will come in and pay off.

Not sure if I read your question correct though

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21560  
Old Feb 16, 2009 12:21pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by emda View Post
I would like to put a daily chart of GBPUSD
As you can see.. it may be different to your daily chart because open and close times of oanda are different... My question would be. how can this affect to see the pinbars?
Hey emda

We have generally all go by the "play it as you see it". So whatever your broker gives just play your charts like that. As price is still the same it is just how it is aggregated.

I personally prefer a close more near NY close time. Oanda closes real late for my liking. So I would simply use whatever is most comfortable to you

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21563  
Old Feb 16, 2009 12:49pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpionFX View Post
A Pin bar on 4H chart EUR/USD...anybody yet in trade?
Hey Scorpion

Be real careful here. Euro has been a choppy mess for some time now. Trades like this in heavy traffic are sometimes a crap shoot or VERY VERY hard to manage. The best is to wait for the much more obvious trades. These are the types of trades that can eat your account up and prevent progress to profitability.

The good ones will stick out

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21645  
Old Feb 17, 2009 11:49am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio View Post
Hey guys, what do you think about this BEOB? I'm not trading it because its on H1 chart and I don't like the position aswell, otherwise it really has room to run short to 1.24 area
Hey Datogio,

Remember, James teaches to take BEOBS at swing highs. This is a swing low, and like you said the 1hr chart. If you are new to this material stick to the rules James stuck to the first page it will save you a long time of frustration.

Can BEOBs be played as continuations like this? Yes they certainly can, but it is IMO that they are easy to learn as reversal bars like pinbars as James teaches

Take care

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21661  
Old Feb 17, 2009 3:23pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lstd View Post
hi, just wanted to know whether ppz employed in some of these PA trades are set discretionary looking at multiple swing reversals on higher time frames, or whether you actually use coventional computed pp's on the larger time frames (Presumably both!?) Thanks
Hey Lstd

PPZ are discretionary "zones". Drawn in using previous support and resistance. These can be large to smaller zones.

Check these posts out they are the best by james

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21671  
Old Feb 17, 2009 5:30pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
I haven't seen an "A" trade on the Dailys for 3 days now... I'm one (or more) of the following:

1)Too Picky
2)Learning to be Patient
3)Not looking hard enough

(Didn't want any of the inside bars yesterday because of the US holiday).

Night everyone

Josh
I go weeks without daily trades. Stick to 1 and 2 and you will become consistently profitable

-Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21674  
Old Feb 17, 2009 5:35pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Yup, me too. Haven't see a good setup on the Daily (might be due to lack of experience). But I'm watching this. Might have to wait for few days maybe. Nice area to have PA IMHO. About the inside bar, I never traded IB. I mostly play breakout from pullback but now I noticed something from Mike's pullback trade that could be implemented on my breakout trade.
I'll be looking at something like this
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	109
Size:	13.4 KB
ID:	206806    
Reply With Quote
  #21676  
Old Feb 17, 2009 5:36pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cvcamper View Post
When playing a reversal (On pretty much any time frame) is it better to place a stop buy/sell 10 pips below the level of the pin bar... or a limit buy/sell for a retrace up on the pin bar?
This is up to the trader. A few points

A pinbar is NOT valid until that high/low breaks. So if you go to take a pinbar on a retrace, it may never break thus not a valid pin.

Generally a retrace entry is more aggressive, but not wrong by any means. You can get in with a larger position size. Both ways have minuses and pluses.

I am conservative and always wait for a break of the bar.

Test and find what is most comfortable to you

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21677  
Old Feb 17, 2009 5:38pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
That is the crux of the matter....not looking hard enough doesn't come into the equation 'A' trades stick out like a sore thumb.
yep they do

Most people get stuck in the 2 steps forward(with an A+ trade), then 3 steps back(with the B and C trades). Thus you feel as if you are chasing your tail and end up somewhere around breakeven. This is still a good sign to get to this point, but IMO to get past this breakeven level we have to shake that "need to trade" feel. And do the right thing
Reply With Quote
  #21680  
Old Feb 17, 2009 5:52pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
They certainly do.

When there's a top trade worth taking on the daily there's a sudden influx of posts pointing it out from every man and his dog.

That's how easy this stuff is. THEY are the trades to take.
yes I have a Forum indicator that alerts me when bar closes, if posts per minute increase by X% over the 150day MA of posts it goes off
Reply With Quote
  #21704  
Old Feb 17, 2009 8:19pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
And that's watching how many pairs Mike? 10? 20? . .
I watch 20+ forex pairs gold/silver


M
Reply With Quote
  #21713  
Old Feb 18, 2009 12:36am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Is he strong enough? If he falls.....
.

hahah mark you cracked me up with that
Reply With Quote
  #21761  
Old Feb 18, 2009 11:40am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
...why?
Not to stick words in his mouth but

Mark(raczefx) is a support and resistance trader. He also uses the heavy correlations(especially as of late), from the DOW as a leading indicator.

Simply DOW rises carry pairs rise( xxx/jpy). So when he saw the DOW hit the last line of support so to speak hoping for a bounce, he uses that to help trade his other pairs, as they will follow

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21771  
Old Feb 18, 2009 12:33pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Anyone keeping an eye out on this ppz.Seems like a pretty strong one on weekly.My question is it doesn't seem to have much space to the left.Would anyone consider taking this trade based on the strong ppz?If of course we get a trigger from PA.
yep a few scenarios could play out. The important part is to identify these strong areas like you did. If you look at the daily there would be space. I will be watching 1.2000 PPZ very closely too
Reply With Quote
  #21824  
Old Feb 18, 2009 8:10pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
can this be considered a dblhc? (see white arrows). this is the eur/chf 4h. price ran into 1.47 like a brick wall. i added the daily for the big picture.
yep technically speaking that is a DBLHC, but that small of a pattern on the 4hr is mighty tough to pull the trigger on if you ask me


Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21914  
Old Feb 19, 2009 11:38am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
How is it that you you can know in your heart the right way to do something, but manage to screw it up over and over?

that is usually Mr. Ego knocking on the door :P
Reply With Quote
  #21922  
Old Feb 19, 2009 12:18pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
Thanks Chris,
I've been reading this thread off and on since summer of 07', so by now I should know what to do. It's just simple dumb mistakes that really can unnerve me. I've demo'd to the point where it really becomes a negative (after you prove you understand the methods).

Today I entered my sell before the 4hr bar finished, duh everyone knows to wait for the bar to finish. Just short cuts like that I need to avoid but in the heat of the moment...I blow it.
start sticking stickies all over your monitor. And I am not joking about that either. I have had many stickies over the years. It is either shape up and stop making mistakes you know you are, or just more years of frustration. It just starts with committing to not making them those first few times, and then it becomes routine.

You can do it

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21925  
Old Feb 19, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hey Mike,

How do you rate the pullback trade on the U/Cad H4? Nice bounce from Daily PPZ. I took half profit at minor PPZ @ 1.2580. Entered on 4H PB though the close was sort of in the middle of the bar but given the location off Daily PPZ, that's why I took it. Any comments Mike on how you would approach it? Thanks
Hey Arcus

No great PA on my feed(fxpro). IBFX has a BUOB(hasn't broken), but those recent highs are just a bit to close for my liking. Passing on this one, but could end up running. Sometimes you get the PA sometimes you don't for me.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #21929  
Old Feb 19, 2009 12:36pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Thanks Mike. Yup, on fxpro it sort of PB but the close is somewhere in the middle. So, for this kind of pullback trade, do you still consider PB size (in term of long nose and the bar size compared to pullback move) and space?
although I am less picky if I consider it a breakout + pullback trade, that bar was still too iffy as a pin. If the body and nose are about the same, that is an automatic pass. That coupled with the fact the we had such a low close like that, made it look too iffy for my liking.

I didn't really consider this trade a breakout + pullback though. Those I consider more on breakout patterns.

SO I was looking for more clean PA to play on this one

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #22006  
Old Feb 20, 2009 1:28am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
Hi

I am at pg 184 of this thread. I have downloaded the price actions setup pdf. But i had encountered some price actions setup which is not illustrated in the pdf, like TBH and eight hours pin or two days pin. Can someone explain more in details what do all the terms mean. It is better if it comes with a chart explanation. Thanks in advance.
Hey Ray

Those pdfs were put together by fellow followers, nothing "official"

On my chart I have an example of a 2bar pin, 2 day pin. If you take the open from the first bar, and the close from the second, and picture it as one bar. Combined they make a 2 day pin.

The other example with the two arrows over it is a TBH or a two bar high. This is where you have matching highs. This can be considered a stall in the move until broken when it is then seen as a continuation(ie a breakout of the matching highs).

Hope that helps

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	74
Size:	16.2 KB
ID:	208116    
Reply With Quote
  #22084  
Old Feb 20, 2009 11:13am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BWise View Post
Hi,

Im fairly new to this thread....
Hey BW

Welcome to the thread. A lot of these concepts can/will only become clear after going through the posts from page 1 a few times. I know it seems like a monstrous task but it will be worth all your time. What is taught here can't be summed up in a post with "everything". I know most threads on FF have a first post summary of their super system, but this is something that needs to be learned and honed in over time.

Each concept you mention above is talked about many times over by James and others here. The best thing you could do is. Start from page and post 1 and begin to take your own notes. Update and change those notes as you go.

Here is a start for you:

PPZ - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Confluence - When multiple factors line up to support your trade. This can come in many forms. Such as price returning to former PPZ, that lines up with a Fib, or a MA and a round number. More factors that support your trade.

Pinbars - Well those are all over from the beginning so I will let you dig into that but below is a chart with a pinbar. This is a reversal bar formation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19599
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post2552025
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ar#post2498127 - just some info on what is taking place to cause a pin(logic behind it)

BEOB/BUOB
DBHLC/DBLHC
- http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7649

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=21222 - here is an example where the trade target is the 50% fib area which is Confluence and used as targets. It will become more clear as you work in from the beginning


Hope that helps getting you started, grab your favorite beverage and dig in from page 1 you won't ever look back

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #22086  
Old Feb 20, 2009 11:22am
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by regsklongshort View Post
James, it appears to me that because this pinbar is immediately below the 3 purple ppz's to the left, meaning that price would have very little room to move upwards if the pinbar is broken.

Or, did you see this as a pinbar that broke down through the ppz and was rejected so that signaled a move upwards.

Will someone please explain the reasoning for this trade in more detail so I can understand?

p.s. This is a great thead, have been following it since last summer and have learned alot!!!
Hey Reg


The 130 area marked off by james is our PPZ area. Remember these are zones. So this pinbar is forming off this "zone". You have support, turning into resistance, and then again turning into support at the big round number ppz of 130.

Those 3 purple boxes are all apart of the same zone you can extend. You could draw one big purple box around that area to show the flip. I did that below on the chart for you.

Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	93
Size:	13.0 KB
ID:	208348    
Reply With Quote
  #22330  
Old Feb 23, 2009 7:58pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hi guys,

I don't see any good setups yet on daily. But here some PB I saw and hope senior members can give comment.

E/U:
Pros - Off RD and PPZ, good PB size.
Cons - Not in space, sort of in congestion area.

G/Cad:
Pros - Off PPZ.
Cons - Close of the PB in the middle though still closed in previous bar, congestion, not in space.

I saw other PB in G/U and E/J as well but since other has posted, so I don't post. But hope any senior members can comment whether is right or wrong. Thanks!
Just my opinion

But days like this I think are what get new traders into trouble. They see bars that qualify, but IMO none of these are all that great. Certainly IMO not worth trading. If not played cautiously and right, you can end up with a bunch of losers on iffy looking bars. None of these bars really jump out as trade me bars.

E/U is at a swing low meaning it could run into trouble real fast with all that traffic. We want these pins at swing highs.

G/C on my chart is barely what I would call a pin. The body is nearly the size of the nose, with a very high close as you stated.

Again just my views, but I see days like this and stand aside.

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #22339  
Old Feb 23, 2009 10:50pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Mike,

Can you take a look at my posts above regarding CHF/JPY and E/J? Also if anyone has anything to add about my analysis above I'd like to hear it.

Thanks,

Scott
Hey Scott

I don't really like the look of either. On the chf/jpy the close was very high. Yes it was within the prior bar, but if the close is going to be that high creating a larger body then I need a much longer nose to protrude away from the prior bars high. In this case price is already moving up fast so it might not even trigger. If it does then it might make it to the area you have marked(remember those areas are zones) see chart.

As for eur/jpy technically it is not a pin on my chart. As the close did not close within the prior bar. Some might call it pin by proxy but with that said there is just too much under it to hold it up. That whole blue box area can be big big trouble. So again for me no room to run which equals no trade. But it might not even trigger the low. But I would stay out of both.

Hope that helps

Mike
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
Views:	60
Size:	12.2 KB
ID:	209585     Click image for larger version

Name:	a2.gif
Views:	56
Size:	13.7 KB
ID:	209586    
Reply With Quote
  #22495  
Old Feb 25, 2009 1:14pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Posting on the round number page of 1500 !





EDIT : If Mike does not get in on the round number page there is no justice in the world

LOL ok i will post and say I love this dancing chick I actually watched it for a good minute
Reply With Quote
Reply

35 Traders Viewing This Thread (10 are members)
FXEZ, Jazflyer, fxairy, Keus, letitride, ffbk, Peter-FX, deGonggok, squeezy, aLLerGic
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ring my bell chart thread forex3e Trading Journals 43 Jun 20, 2009 8:38am
rock my chair chart thread forex3e Trading Journals 48 Oct 30, 2007 11:21pm