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  #7490  
Old Nov 7, 2007 7:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Could you please ask him for his opinion though ??

Would he be more interested in a 6 pack of cola or apple juice ????

I can't get an opinion or anything from my 5 year old right now, cause she is cranky tonight for some reason... means I have no trade ideas for tonight either !!
He read your post and gave an answer in capitals already....
nuh, no 6 pack, no juice..no pop.... my kinds only drink water...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Tiki, You just made me think im the biggest idiot in the world. Why not buy oil on the next dip? I plan on it now. I live up north, I shouldh ave had that rationale for buying oil.
don't be to harsh on yourself.... pull the charts and check what oil did in the last 5 years .... october-january period......

,..and let's see what's happening on weekly.....
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  #7495  
Old Nov 7, 2007 8:09pm
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Default nick tesla was a genius...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
..I dont think Ethanol is a good replacement for oil, and I think that because people stay in routine more often than not, they will stick with oil instead of going electric. ...
.
not ethanol... other technologies are already in use.. but it will be a while before 'regulars' are able use them...
oil 'cartels' have many interesting patents collecting dust ....
I hope that those high oil prices will speed up our tech. r/evolution..
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  #7499  
Old Nov 7, 2007 8:46pm
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Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Can you post a chart of monthlies ??? Danged if I can find one... I think this year may be different... this summer season did not go as usual where gas prices came down after summer driving season, instead they are now going up... they are going to get us in the winter this year !!! And an extra cold winter is predicted, which in itself helps oil prices go up...
heavy winter usually means less travel..
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  #7623  
Old Nov 13, 2007 11:09am
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Default gj & eu

How far is it going to retrace before falling again.....
230.20, 232.50,234.20...?

I'd love to see 234, but that might be wishful thinking...
Trade wisely, many pips....
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  #7624  
Old Nov 13, 2007 11:25am
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long trading opportunity after you closed your gj shorts.....!

BUOVB on 4hr, retrace to almost 50fib (red arrow), long, boom till next ppz for some 200ps if you're patient and have a proper mindset....
.
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  #7642  
Old Nov 15, 2007 4:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
OK Ka-Ching again...

GBP/JPY +133 pips... and I did it with PA...

Mr Booker always said... ALWAYS have a chart...
nicely doone...
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  #7659  
Old Nov 16, 2007 3:13pm
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eurchf.... weekend homework
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  #7660  
Old Nov 16, 2007 3:20pm
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Smile

gbpchf....
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  #7696  
Old Nov 19, 2007 9:27am
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Triple resistance on small TF?
Where are we going from here....
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  #7697  
Old Nov 19, 2007 10:12am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Triple resistance on small TF?
Where are we going from here....
... and first intraday target.....
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  #7748  
Old Nov 21, 2007 12:32pm
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TL, ppz, fibs.....
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  #7763  
Old Nov 22, 2007 4:17pm
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Originally Posted by zhkzhk View Post
SeekingLight:
I read one of your last messages where you mention the PF site, could you please let me know, how I can join as a member

Thanks
Zee
There are no new subscribers being accepted during the transition phase. You can read more about it and how to join, here.
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  #7841  
Old Nov 27, 2007 12:31pm
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
This is where Tiki finally gets his reward for sticking to his trade rules on EURCHF

Or at least here is the "get out of EURCHF jail free" card for anyone on board =)
we'll see, we'll ...see....
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  #7845  
Old Nov 27, 2007 3:38pm
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
I hope I'll see (as in be awake and at the screen for) 1.6490-1.6550.

You know what's funny? Looking at EURCHF I got pretty good confidence about what will likely happen there, looking at the DJI and S&P I get so scared..it's really odd - especially since they're basically making identical moves
Which way now, SL? .....
It looks that DOW could use that A/gravity device....

.
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  #7881  
Old Nov 28, 2007 3:11pm
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CJ... TL, 61fib confl
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  #7883  
Old Nov 28, 2007 3:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags View Post
Interesting looking 4H sell pin on the EURCHF.
Could be price taking a breather after this big bullish day. Or it's getting ready to reverse.
I'm already long from the Daily pin so I think I'll weigh my options later.
I see a Price Pivot zone around 1.6530ish so we'll see what happens.
We've got SOME daily bar today...
Price will most likely continue in the same direction till 1.6560/1.66 before we see a pullback imo..

p.s. we are not far from weekly resistance though...
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  #7982  
Old Dec 3, 2007 9:56pm
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Default S&P

Second test of PPZ around 1.5k remains intact. TL is still in place, but if on Dec.11 US rates go down again, that resistance area might get broken.
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  #7983  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Second test of PPZ around 1.5k remains intact. TL is still in place, but if on Dec.11 US rates go down again, that resistance area might get broken.
... this weekly BUOVB may also suggest upside potential.....
waiting for retrace....
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  #8026  
Old Dec 5, 2007 12:03am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
We've got SOME daily bar today...
Price will most likely continue in the same direction till 1.6560/1.66 before we see a pullback imo..

p.s. we are not far from weekly resistance though...
Well,... stopped 12ps short of 1.66...
Let's see if we can push it down to and reverse at 1.6430...
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  #8036  
Old Dec 5, 2007 11:35am
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
I'd rather see a merciless smashdown into the depths of hell *devil*

..
we have to have more patience....

dj is testing ppz again. It will be interesting to see what market will do next week if feds decide to cut rates by .50 again. Somehow, I don't think we'll shoot through the roof this time around if they cut....
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  #8037  
Old Dec 5, 2007 11:40am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
... this weekly BUOVB may also suggest upside potential.....
waiting for retrace....
buovb is working hard. it hasn't retraced past 38
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  #8042  
Old Dec 5, 2007 1:08pm
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
What's completely screwed up is that GU GC GJ is dying nonetheless - even with stocks rallying their butts off.

Oh well, shrug and grin.
word is: boe will cut rates
This could be why....
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  #8044  
Old Dec 5, 2007 2:31pm
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Yea...but this EURGBP thing has been on since November, so I think someone was expecting a shift for a month now..and today/yesterday we just entered into the next impulse..and you can see the effects :P

So, about the fear, indices and panic stuff - is Asia gonna love or hate the JPY, any smart guesses by anyone? :P

I know what I'd like to see happen across the board..but whether St. Nikolaus (6th tomorrow) will put many pips in my shoe or not, that I don't know yet..
Asia should love JPY....
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  #8046  
Old Dec 5, 2007 4:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Hm. Well the DJI close is not gonna encourage JPY buying if this goes on
We'll have to wait and see.... it's only few hours away...

oil got cheaper today, dji i hovering around resistance.
my sell trigger is some 120ps higher from current price (13560/80)....I was hoping 300+ rally till midday and retrace, but it appears investors are betting on rate cuts and stock market recovery....:surprised
As we rapidly getting closer to Christmas, liquidity should dry out, so I expect wild swings....
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  #8049  
Old Dec 5, 2007 4:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDandy View Post
Here is the way it looks like the daily is going to end with a double high lower close.....now with all the news about to come out this week do you just go ahead and put a sell stop at the bottom a little ways down and then where for a stop?
If I were not in the trade right now, I'd simply skip it, even though it will probably slide to 1.4520 area...
Good, short entries (imo ) were at 1.4705 and 1.4770
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  #8076  
Old Dec 6, 2007 8:12am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
If I were not in the trade right now, I'd simply skip it, even though it will probably slide to 1.4520 area...
..
Will this become a 4hr PB..? Will find out in a couple of hours...
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  #8084  
Old Dec 6, 2007 10:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrevA View Post
Hi All

Did anybody take the EURUSD trade today?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7950

As predicted, the price bounced of 1.4520's. It went down to 1.4529 and pulled back quickly.

I don't want to speak too soon but expect 1.4960 to be tested again in the next few weeks.

Great price action too so watch this trade carefully for a fake out.

TrevA

yes, .. almost right on posted PPZ.. with ecb not changing and expected cut in us next week, there was only one direction for fiber .....
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  #8096  
Old Dec 6, 2007 6:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Yes about UJ.

I think the current move up looks more like a 5 count itself, which is worrying.

Even if it were an ABC the c would be way, way, way too short yet.
.....
I see, you still enjoy woodo waves....

Let's have a look at s&p instead.... !

Price is sitting just few points away from my favored confluence;
weekly ppz, 50/61 and TL.....

What PA we'll get out of this, how will affect our jpy and $?... we'll find out soon enough....
.

p.s. How do you think, this will affect the us stock market SL?... Not sure about others, but I can't see champagne flowing..
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  #8124  
Old Dec 7, 2007 3:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
You've been hit by lightning !!!??????????? I didn't see any scars on your profile picture... !!!
Cause it was send to NASA's data lab for brushing....first.
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  #8134  
Old Dec 8, 2007 8:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
I just got back from logging over 100 hours on busses across SA. I think I have bricks in my pants. Rac, I am sure you are feeling similiar, US$400-mill getting reset to higher rates is a "no brainer" to me. The housing market has too much downward momentum to turn on any "hopefull" gov news. Anyway, I am not aware of any shovels big enough to dig out of this hole soon.
yup, unless there is another resolution prohibiting investors from selling stock below 14k,... I see only one way street for next few miles. Time will tell ... It seems lately, that everything is possible for Mr. B and CB...:surprised
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  #8175  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:44pm
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Broken PB on WZ7....
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  #8176  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:48pm
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price hit ppz around 2.05 and retraced to another one....
one hour and 10min to go...
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  #8178  
Old Dec 11, 2007 1:38pm
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Pb off PPZ and broken TL re-test.....
it can't get any easier as J16 would say...
Let's see what happens after the news.
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  #8180  
Old Dec 11, 2007 4:10pm
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Originally Posted by creeper View Post
Heyho,

I just learnt a VERY important lesson. Be aware of the news. I am almost certain that it was the interest rate statement that took me out of my AUDUSD and AUDJPY longs. I should not have entered one day before such an important news event. What I don't understand, however, is why USD gained strength after the interest rate cut. The way I understood interest rate cuts is that they weaken a currency because just holding the currency (without movements in the market) yields less interest and thus people don't look to buy after an interst rate cut. So, what am I missing.

*shit, two stupid losses that will make it harder to come out with a positive balance this month.

Chris
It was carry unwinding due to investors disappointment with smaller then expected cut. Look at the chart below.... Support at 1500 was blown away with ease.... That's why it's important to have your stops handy...
.
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  #8193  
Old Dec 11, 2007 9:25pm
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PA on Gold

Beovb on 4hr... wait for retrace (ppz, fib) and.... .
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  #8204  
Old Dec 12, 2007 1:05pm
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pin by proxy...
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  #8205  
Old Dec 12, 2007 3:54pm
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pb off resistance... where are we going now...?
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  #8208  
Old Dec 12, 2007 4:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
0340...
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  #8210  
Old Dec 13, 2007 10:57am
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
0340...
self fulfilling prophecy... isn't it...
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  #8211  
Old Dec 13, 2007 11:12am
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Originally Posted by piphitman View Post
looking at that PB........the wick on the down side was almost as long as the wick on the upside, that out of the ordinary huge upward spike reminds me of something fti was speaking of in his thread on one of his posts about the ducks and the rubber band killings. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=92
some people look at it that way, but I don't see it on fiber monthly chart....

I like it simple... we might even get TBH on uj dailies; fib confluence, ppz...., ...., ... a touch of that area yesterday was a good target if we were long, and perhaps short opportunity. It retraced over 100ps before bouncing again..
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  #8212  
Old Dec 13, 2007 11:16am
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... and a micro picture.....
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  #8214  
Old Dec 13, 2007 11:21am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
pin by proxy...
and one more update on gold...
just bounced off another ppz... and tp area....
ok, enough of my monologue for today, got to make few trades...
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  #8215  
Old Dec 13, 2007 11:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
I believe it is. You been watching my videos? LOL...
I commented on the first one. I watched 5min of the second one, but need to take care off some business, so I'll watch it later tonight...
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  #8217  
Old Dec 13, 2007 11:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by creeper View Post

Btw, finished reading the thread for the second time. Now up for a third time.

Chris
I could risk a lot to say that this is the only thread on the public forum and the net, you ever need to read and practice to be successful in trading,... but this is true.

hope you don't mind seeing few charts of mine from time to time, even though they're far from perfect PA setups.. I'm just filling in space till the time, Jim completes tasks associated with his new website and returns here with more insight on trading..
many pips.
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  #8223  
Old Dec 13, 2007 5:05pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
self fulfilling prophecy... isn't it...
will it revisit 2.06xx or will it drop after touching 2.0460....
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  #8234  
Old Dec 14, 2007 9:24am
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Originally Posted by creeper View Post
Hey, Oanda, among others, is a very reliable and respected broker and you can trade any size you want. You're totally right that different feeds show different bars but that jim once said that results average out over the long run so you won't be at an disadvantage for using IBFX or something else.

To raczke: I don't mind you posting many charts at all. In fact, I like your charts very much because you almost always show clean and simple setups. After reading this thread for the second time, special thanks go to:

Jim, Mike, Seeking Light, Tiki, Wizard, razldazl, habeeb, raczkefx and some others I just forgot the names of at the moment.

Will it hit my target? Long from the TBH.

Chris

Even though it's a TBH break, I have ultimate TP set for 113.60. I can't see it go higher anytime soon.

BTW. I haven't gone long on a break of this PB. I mentioned in the chat last night, that it didn't feel right and we'll likely drop to 2.02 area..
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  #8235  
Old Dec 14, 2007 9:51am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post

Even though it's a TBH break, I have ultimate TP set for 113.60. I can't see it go higher anytime soon.
..
Not sure how many of us still check vegas (mystery man) system, but we have hit extreme fib on 1hr....
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  #8236  
Old Dec 14, 2007 12:00pm
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eu
if momentum continues we'll probably see fiber visiting 4160-4200 next....
I'd love to see a nice daily pb off that area. From a fundamental view point I still think that another test of 1.48 is due sometimes in Jan.
We shall see. Enjoy the weekend and many pips....
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  #8249  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Oh, you had already said what I just said... sorry !!! But do you really think we could go down that far, and then all the way back up to 1.4800 so quick ???
... If I knew for sure, I wouldn't waste any time posting on a public forum, would I..? I only trade probabilities...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Joacko must be super happy if he is thinking like you !!!
He isn't... he's older...
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  #8251  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:19pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
what is ppz? is The lines of pivot points?

by now i know that james uses confluense, there is something more about pivot points wich is important to learn? i am reading all the thread. i still in post 1000.

i am interested especialy in raczekfx (i need to use copy and paste this nick) definition of "agressive ppz" that he uses in his profile

thanks all and sorry for my bad english.
it simply support/resistance area.
aggressive - means here, taking partial position at PPZ without waiting for PA confirmation. If proper pa develops then you just add to a full position, if price breaks support you're out for a loss on that partial pos..
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  #8258  
Old Dec 14, 2007 9:21pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
but do you use only pivot points or others strong s%r?

and do you use autopivot to plot the pp lines?

i tried pp some time ago but it was a mess in MT4. But was not Autopivot. Maybe i will give a try using Autopivot.

thanks for reply.
no, I don't use mathematically calculated pivots or autopivots at all.
our ppz or price pivots if you will, are 'visual' areas of s/r, like in example below..
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  #8273  
Old Dec 16, 2007 4:26pm
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Originally Posted by creeper View Post
Hey,

have a question on a setup that has not been adressed so far I believe - consecutive pinbars. How do you play them. Do you the signal is stronger after two pinbars or would you consider this setup invalid since the bar after the first pinbar couldn't break the low.

Chris
not sure if stronger, but if i took this trade I would keep in mind ppz around 1.4560. I would actually already had some short position after TL break on 4hr...
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  #8275  
Old Dec 16, 2007 4:29pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
not sure if stronger, but if i took this trade I would keep in mind ppz around 1.4560. I would actually already had some short position after TL break on 4hr...
you also want to keep in mind monthly Buovb... (and a pin also..he,he)
if it breaks I'll be looking for max retrace to 1.42...
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  #8330  
Old Dec 18, 2007 10:58pm
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nice pb on wheat... broken ppz, now testing it from another side..
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  #8338  
Old Dec 19, 2007 8:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Note the only slightly skewed "leg parity" of the bar after the PB - almost identical length as the left bar before the PB - then the bar closes and a counter-reaction..
It's hard to always get 'leg parity' in futures....
4hr still shows nice uptrend...
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  #8374  
Old Dec 21, 2007 10:22am
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Originally Posted by the_wizard View Post
Hi raczekfx,

I saw this too but not taking it due to the fundamentals of the market. Good to see some commodities charts Good luck.

Wiz
Fundamentals are important.. however I see it getting heavier every day...
it could be gathering more strength for another push higher, but I'm leaning towards the idea that we're heading down at least 60ps... will see.
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  #8405  
Old Dec 27, 2007 11:14pm
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break down, retrace to previous support.... short... (my favorites, next to fibs)
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  #8408  
Old Dec 27, 2007 11:40pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
break down, retrace to previous support.... short... (my favorites, next to fibs)
same goes for g/j... pb break retrace ..... short (ppz, fib)
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  #8419  
Old Dec 28, 2007 1:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
this mt4 is of wich broker? there is not any pb in my mt4 form interbankfx
It?s NF, but it doesn't really matter what you use. You might get Beovb or something else..... What's important is to know where areas of s/r and confluence are and look for high probability trades.
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  #8420  
Old Dec 28, 2007 1:27pm
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This is another short trade I took last night and was really happy when I checked charts a couple of hours ago...
Initial entry was manual, aditional entry was pre-set order..
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  #8424  
Old Dec 28, 2007 1:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Before he answers... let me say my guess... break down below PPZ... retrace to resistance / ppz... SHORT... break down again... retrace to resistance / ppz... then add to SHORT...
That's exactly what I did....
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  #8428  
Old Dec 28, 2007 2:39pm
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E/J is getting tighter?. Which way is it going to break? Judging by the behavior of other jpy crosses, I?d risk and say we?d break lower ... in January.?.
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  #8429  
Old Dec 28, 2007 2:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
wait. the first entry is possible to see the retrace. but the second you put the order when price was bellow the resistance (so the retrace happened in the same bar) or when price was above and then a breakout?

i will send a private message to you to ask something.

thanks and sorry for this terrible english.
second entry was actually a breakout trade. hope this chart below helps.
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  #8431  
Old Dec 28, 2007 8:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Have I truly missed this all this time...??
....
This just as never really clicked with me.... until today...!!! A revalation...!!!!!!

...
I was told by someone who met and talked to several 'market wizards', that this is one of the way how they got wealthy....
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  #8435  
Old Dec 28, 2007 9:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
So now.... here is the next question from a dense guy... after retracing to a PPZ, how would you happen to know if price will make the next bounce... or will it continue in the retrace direction as a new trend/direction, or continue retracing still even to the next PPZ... ???..
That, I don't know... suppose I knew, I would never come to visit FF...

... but If you look at monthly, weekly and daily, you should kind of get the feel of direction... so unless proven wrong .... go with the flow...
... and if I asked myself too many 'ifs' questions, I'd probably never have guts to pull a trigger
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  #8436  
Old Dec 28, 2007 9:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
WOW...

I can't read each candle so well... but now the s/r zones are way more clear !!! Beautiful !!!!
Isn't it...

The less crap on your charts the merrier..
Enjoy the weekend!
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  #8467  
Old Dec 30, 2007 10:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatis View Post


Anyone have the same analysis with me?
Given the strength of the latest move down, I wouldn't be surprised to see 110.90 before market closes tomorrow. TP 110 and eventually ....... 100.
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  #8468  
Old Dec 30, 2007 10:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
break down below PPZ... retrace to resistance / ppz... SHORT... break down again... retrace to resistance / ppz...


This just has never really clicked with me.... until today...!!! A revalation...!!!!!!

...
Hey Tiki,

Sometimes when you wait for retracement it never happens and if it does, it might be a full blown reversal like with u/c few weeks ago. Anyways, a friend of mine collected several hundred pips on this move alone and is looking for about 80-100ps more.
Very well done..., this would be my wish for the New Year: a transition from 80-160ps scalps to catching the big ones....
Happy New 2008 everyone!
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  #8486  
Old Dec 31, 2007 10:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Great advice,
combined with pa & s/r it becomes much easier & less stessfull to pull in the big moves. You really only need a couple a week to be very profitable. the other bonus is you get to have a life.. May the light go on for all this year.

Cheers Jeff
Ahmen to that.. Jeff........
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  #8491  
Old Dec 31, 2007 2:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
So rac.... will this have been your EUR rally that you were thinking was going to happen...?? Happened this year instead of 2008... if today ends as it is now... we have hit resistance above and now a BEOB for the day... and end of the year... yeah I know the day is not over... but price has now retrace to a PPZ and now bouncing down.... all just like magic... or was it ever magic...??? Just ding dong Tiki who couldn't figure it out...

Or now we are retracing down to the next PPZ around 4515... to make another push up... !!!
Yes, It has.......
Check my journal for more predictions...
many pips in 2008

r
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  #8501  
Old Jan 1, 2008 2:26pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joyrider View Post
How does one go about searching for your journal?

Thanks.
Hello rider,
It's available here, unfortunately you have to be a member of PF to be able to see it (I know that Tiki has access)

many pips in the New Year.
r
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  #8502  
Old Jan 1, 2008 2:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
OK... here is my final chart of GBP/JPY for this year...
I zoomed it in and noticed a bounce around 203, is that correct Tiki?
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  #8506  
Old Jan 1, 2008 11:53pm
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Default wheat trade update.

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Fundamentals are important.. however I see it getting heavier every day...
it could be gathering more strength for another push higher, but I'm leaning towards the idea that we're heading down at least 60ps... will see.
This was one good trade after all....
It even went some 14ps past 891 TP.
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  #8528  
Old Jan 2, 2008 12:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
I believe the gentleman may now have lost his grip....
I helped him....
...asia will be fun...
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  #8534  
Old Jan 2, 2008 3:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Let me guess, you're going to sell a lot of yen and CHF? :P
a lot maybe, but you meant buy yen, not sell...?
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  #8537  
Old Jan 2, 2008 3:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Well, the last 6 months whenever I was bullish JPY you were selling the crap out of it secretly while I wasn't looking, so I just assumed you'd do that again this time

A lot, a little, it's the thought that counts!
oh, I see...lol
not this time however, have you seen cliffhanger chart, Tiki posted?
It showed some support at 210 and then 202? I might reconsider at those levels....

..maybe write some 180-190 calls and start buying g/j at 202 when it gets there....
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  #8540  
Old Jan 2, 2008 4:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Yea saw it. =)
..
Not the cleanest of all clean s/r and charts, but there are some ideas in there I have for GJ to go to :P
This is cleaner, but kind of scary looking......
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  #8545  
Old Jan 2, 2008 5:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
, so that is your secret to success drawing scary faces :
I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing faces... I didn't mention it on purpose..

Quote:
Originally Posted by razldazl View Post
Hey Mike,
If you think thats scary, you should see his refrigerator! LOL...
... that one is one scary monster... . It's going out next week..., picked up the new one on boxing day... and kids won't have any access code to the kitchen...
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  #8551  
Old Jan 3, 2008 8:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
First off let me say the worst thing you can do to your trading is use trailing stops. Yes, there are some fellas with a big following that advocate and love them(because it requires 0 thought), but I think that a fixed size trailing stop is rubbish. ...
:P
are you talking about jacko....?
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  #8566  
Old Jan 3, 2008 6:42pm
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Default short term scalps

Quote:
Originally Posted by swingtrade65 View Post
Yeah raczekfx has a way of doing those things...I emailed him yesterday to make sure he already had them short so he wouldn't mess up the 1500 pips in open profit I had in the crosses....I guess he just HAD TO DO IT.......
he, he.. you guys are too kind. As a matter of fact I did sell yen (bought jpy crosses) but only as of today.... Looking for another 100ps on u/j, e/j, g/j, c/j, a/j and maybe n/j from current levels.....
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  #8585  
Old Jan 4, 2008 11:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatis View Post
Anyone know why this PB fail?
I am down 152 pips right now (luckly this is only demo)

I see a resistance around 111.17, may be I should long after price broke that level.or what I am doing is right, I just don't have luck right now.
Trading yen can be very profitable but you need to be aware of what equities are doing...., (at least I watch them...)
In many instances when they dive south, yen will strengthen vice versa.
Charts below are one of the reason why your pin failed....
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  #8586  
Old Jan 4, 2008 11:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Looks like raczek's idea of a push back towards 1.50 on EUR comes closer and closer to being true rather than fantasy....!!!!
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  #8589  
Old Jan 4, 2008 12:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swingtrade65 View Post
Hi All,
Just a thought about the pin bar failures.....in my opinion it had more to do with the fact that those pairs are in the middle of severe downtrends driven by much larger timeframes...go check the weekly and monthly charts....

I just prefer to trade in the direction of the prevailing major trend and then even if I make a mistake on an entry, I have a very good chance of the trend bailing out my dumb mistake etc

just my 2 pips
very true... monthly and weekly rules.....

I thought about what you have said in this post and couldn't agree more. I also found another very nice thread on FF, started by Kevin. Here are some thoughts on how your idea of letting profits run might benefit traders, who struggle.... And yes, I'm still working on sitting on my hands when I'm 80-100 ps in profit....
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  #8592  
Old Jan 4, 2008 12:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
What he's trying to say is that the DJI and futures only had a miniscule inside bar that broke down today while the JPY all displayed big big pins...this was one of the main reasons I didn't trust any of this, alongside with some personal convictions about the state of "mind" the market is in and how the whole movement "feels".

I'm getting esoteric, so suffice to say it's all not easy, but it WILL come in time.(sounding a bit arrogant and know it all here and I definitely am still wrong an infinite amount of times...I just try not to be hurt by what I do when I am and take advantage of when I am right..that's really all there is to trading, is there not? Humility, where are you..)

Personally I am getting scared that I am starting to already forget the clueless panicky days slowly and how it felt and what the biggest problems were day to day for me..I need that memory for teaching..so I will have to hurry in addressing it ASAP.
I sure hope they never do return and that I am well underway by now..I can still feel the abyss close by..I wonder if it will go away eventually.


I still blame raczekfx, he's only posting the charts to distract from his JPY selling!
Exactly.. Thanks SL...
This is why I titled my yesterday's post 'short term scalps'...
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  #8600  
Old Jan 4, 2008 7:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Ok I'm still pretty new at this, but to me it seems like on weekly and monthly, CAD/JPY is in an uptrend not a downtrend like you guys are saying. That is why I didn't take the weekly pin ...
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
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  #8601  
Old Jan 4, 2008 7:23pm
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... same thing on the monthly chart..
We get beautiful Beovb, and then pullback to 50, ppz... and Booom
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  #8617  
Old Jan 5, 2008 11:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
raczek

It is not that I am looking for you to do the thinking for me... I have thought about it... and I have a chart prepared to show how I think about it... I will happily post it to compare with whatever you say... so we can once again show off my ignorance !!! But that's fun for everyone anyways... I don't mind too much...
Hey Tiki,
You've asked a lot of good questions, unfortunately I only know the answer to a couple. Since I have no slightest idea what the market will do next, I try to trade best probabilities….
For me there are only three choices: trading breakouts, trading pullbacks to previous support after breakouts or pure PA with confluence. I can’t predict if price wont breakout another way or ignore BEOVB or TL or Fib, but for me those are probabilities with much better chances of success then chasing the markets or anything else….
You asked what now with Cad/Jpy, and again I have no idea but will observe what price will do short term…. If you really want prediction I'm looking for $$ picking up some strength next week (I shorted cable, fiber, au, nu after NONFarm) and I’m also looking for a good bounce on yen crosses starting on Monday . Oh, and yes I traded c\j short although I was late with my entries…

Many pips,

Last edited by raczekfx, Jan 5, 2008 4:00pm
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  #8624  
Old Jan 6, 2008 7:10pm
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Perhaps it's just me..., but I can't let go the feeling that we're heading towards 1.91-1.93. Anyone else?
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  #8627  
Old Jan 6, 2008 9:40pm
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Hey Tiki, to answer your PM? this is not new?.
Retraces are great, but please note what happened after nonfarm!?
I haven?t seen such numbers for quite some time and would expect fiber and cable to rally hard. Instead we?ve got fake break out of 1.48 and priced closed pretty much where it opened on daily. $ also strengthen on other crosses. Such behavior makes me think the top has been placed (at least temporarily) for fiber. You might want to wait for some sort of PA confirmation now before deciding what?s to do next, but I?m a bit more aggressive and took initial position, I?ll add more on break lower. When you look at that cable chart, price is testing 1.97 for the fourth time? it could bounce, who knows, but I?m leaning toward a break low. When it breaks, next logical support will be around 1.94 and then 1.9160.. that?s how I see it.
Many pips
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  #8629  
Old Jan 6, 2008 10:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
OK... but what is your stop on GBP ??? How many pips are you willing to lose...? What is the confirmation for you that your idea is working ?? What kind of close below 1.97 ??? We are already hitting Fridays low...
here they are.....
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  #8633  
Old Jan 6, 2008 11:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
whats your thoughts on this one Racze,
You going to sell yen on the way up to 217 again or wait and play the break below support.
I'm not in this, wish, but I would like to see a bounce up, consolidate some more to get an entry.
Hang on your selling yen right now aren't you....
.
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  #8637  
Old Jan 7, 2008 11:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
raczek

I am beginning to wonder if there really will be a retrace back to 218-220 area...
Back in Oct-Nov. 2007, I was chatting with a couple of my traders-friends and we discovered that we all sold equities and moved our money to bonds and cash at almost the same time......

They also mentioned, they wouldn't be surprised to see correction in Dow this year by 25-35%....
Well, if that happens we won't see 220 anytime soon...
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  #8641  
Old Jan 7, 2008 12:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
If that counts :P
(journal excerpt from yesterday)
Of course it counts,... much more than that of jasdel's dude...

Actually I've seen a post in your journal on the very same topic an hour after I posted my chart here and was quite content. Glad we're on the same page..
Now, off to the bank to borrow more yen...
...1.48...1.47..1.46... 1.42... ..., ...
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  #8647  
Old Jan 7, 2008 4:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoss View Post
The day isn't over yet but looking at a DLHC on the daily chart. Looks like some resistance underneath. Any thoughts on this one if it closes this way?
I always look at xxx/chf crosses before trading yen.
Simply saying: xxx/chfs are leaders and xx/jpys are followers..

p.s. raczekfx on steroids..; i'm posting way too much lately... ok. I'll shut up now....
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  #8667  
Old Jan 8, 2008 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard View Post
One to watch.

Gut feel is that this is going to break North.

Selling pressure is sharp when it occurs but price is seriously eroding that resistance.
So what's the hold up....
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  #8681  
Old Jan 8, 2008 7:08pm
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Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Update with an outcome of little surprise to me(And a strong doubt the JPY bears will get very far..):
Same here.... Dow is about to erase all gains for the 2007...
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  #8719  
Old Jan 11, 2008 11:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Well I already mentioned the GBPUSD exception because I feel that one may have the chance of actually TURNING the trend.

..
now, wouldn't it be nice end a day like this....?
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  #8721  
Old Jan 11, 2008 12:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
and what about this..
Racze you been selling yen again??
I knew i should have booked that 150 pips. Mark would have. now back to b/e. again......
I'll get one to take off eventually..
actually I was stopped out for a loss on yen crosses overnight...
this choppy market, we have for the last few days kills many trades unless you're scalping off 15min... (not a recommendation..)
At least my fiber's doing well, and I will buy more on pullback to 1.4750 area or on break out higher...
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  #8723  
Old Jan 11, 2008 12:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
agreed,
It is even harder to hold long term when i see my profits keep getting eroded.
I'm holding my gj short though as I see at least a retest of lows.
Lowered my position but increased the size of stop. to try a be in on a run low which i think is coming. could be wrong of course.
from my limited experience I can say that in sideways moving market you stay out unless you're good on short TF. When the trend picks up again, you can start scaling in when opportunities present themselves.. and as Mike had said, best probabilities exist on retests of broken ppz ( so grandma can get in as SL put it..)
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  #8731  
Old Jan 13, 2008 6:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
what i understand is that you took a short in a weekly beob and close in this daily pb. Is this correct or i am wrong?

thanks in advance.
yes, I no longer have short cable positions. We may see another attempt to test 1.94 area but my bias has changed after boe kept the rates..
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  #8733  
Old Jan 13, 2008 8:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
and you take a long on broke of the pin or only closed the positions?

thanks
I took tiny long on 1hr PB break after price bounced off 100ema on weekly.
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  #8742  
Old Jan 14, 2008 4:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mamutot View Post
i hope that means downwards..

i also think so

yes - now i am sure it will


anybody??
doubt it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see pullback to 1.4760/90 before continuation higher.
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  #8769  
Old Jan 16, 2008 4:22pm
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any pin bar traders here....?
I only like two of them...
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  #8773  
Old Jan 16, 2008 4:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by niner49 View Post
I'm going to venture a guess and say CADJPY & NZDJPY.....?
cad and gbp
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  #8777  
Old Jan 16, 2008 7:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
I'd sooner take a 5m bear-PB than any of those
... I know you would...
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  #8797  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
4 Hour PB just broke on GBP/USD, failed to break 50% fib retracement of 2.0102 high. Anyone else in this one?
I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 1.9850 soon. Just watch ppz if you took that short. Those are daily and weekly s/r lines as well....
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Last edited by raczekfx, Jan 17, 2008 4:51pm
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  #8798  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Just couldn't resist posting a followup on my dream charts.

...
Way to go SL..
Aren't you a little surprised with x/chfs responses to equity selloff today?
It will be fun watching yen when Tokyo opens tonight..
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  #8815  
Old Jan 18, 2008 9:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
raczek did you stopped out on GY or still in that trade?

i am -300 pips
I gave away 213.. if that helps..
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  #8830  
Old Jan 21, 2008 1:01pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
but as i know raczek is a pro and took this pin... and i think this was really a perfect pin... no?
hi giraia,

I am by no means a pro.... I'm just trying to do my best to put pieces of the puzzle together. I already had a position since 208.77 off 4hr TF (posted in attachment in peaks and valley thread) and simply added on a close after daily pb printed. To me it looked good, but it didn't work. When it met my SL, I simply reversed as per attached chart.... We're trading probabilities so I understand PB will fail from time to time even if majority traders will say it was a perfect one...., we just need to know where we need to admit, we're wrong and move on...
many pips to all..
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  #8880  
Old Jan 24, 2008 11:59pm
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e/j watch...
.
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  #8888  
Old Jan 25, 2008 2:45pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
e/j watch...
.
and a nice fall of 200ps...back to S/R... you got to love it.
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  #8889  
Old Jan 25, 2008 3:08pm
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eu
back to daily and 4hr ppz.. will it resume uptrend...?
we shall see ....soon...
no nonsense stop would be below 38F
.
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  #8911  
Old Jan 28, 2008 7:52am
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and a nice fall of 200ps...back to S/R... you got to love it.
and a 'perfect' bounce off another ppz
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  #8950  
Old Jan 30, 2008 8:13pm
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dancing between pivots... what's a gonna be...
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  #8951  
Old Jan 30, 2008 8:17pm
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ok... we've tested scalpers pivot..now what?
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  #8953  
Old Jan 30, 2008 8:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Oh Oh... I've been thinking almost the same thing.... can Tiki have something right for a change...??????
who knows, who knows Tiki.....
I'd like to see 209 and ... beyond. Only time will tell.
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  #8980  
Old Feb 1, 2008 12:22pm
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who knows, who knows Tiki.....
I'd like to see 209 and ... beyond. Only time will tell.
Patience 'almost' always is generous...
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  #8983  
Old Feb 1, 2008 1:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
...

I didn't realize my chart arrows would become such price magnets...look what I accidently did to GBPUSD
See...., I'm working hard to make your arrow predictions come true....
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  #8985  
Old Feb 1, 2008 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
!

Quick, let me put in some arrows in the USDJPY chart, say, 104? 103?
I need that to go down, too, get to work! :P *whhhksh!*

Wot a mess :P

Time for a weekend pizza here!

Have a good one everyone!
....hold your horses Seek... the weekend almost started... have some life.. price will get there sooner or later...
have a look at dj.... party should end around 12800/12900
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  #8986  
Old Feb 1, 2008 2:50pm
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last chart before the weekend..
I wouldn't be surprised to see 91/92 if boe cuts by .5 next week..
let's enjoy the weekend and family life for now.
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  #9001  
Old Feb 5, 2008 11:24am
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....hold your horses Seek... the weekend almost started... have some life.. price will get there sooner or later...
have a look at dj.... party should end around 12800/12900
can we go back to 12100...?
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  #9003  
Old Feb 5, 2008 11:28am
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pin off the ppz... back to another price pivot...
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  #9005  
Old Feb 5, 2008 11:37am
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price was rejected at ppz again... are we gonna see 105.60 next..?
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  #9006  
Old Feb 5, 2008 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
price was rejected at ppz again... are we gonna see 105.60 next..?
same thing for ej... on its way to another ppz...
ok... that's enough posts for the next few days....
let's see what happens next...

btw.. you guys can win a 5k live account here, if you take your demo to the first place....
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  #9009  
Old Feb 5, 2008 1:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Since Jim just sent a mail around about it and the fact that it hasn't even been a week when we discussed this very thing, I felt this was worth showing everyone.

Just with the stuff we've got in this thread alone, together with some of the more in depth stuff we do on the site, you can go from feeling like a "sideway mess" to "love sideway trading" when looking at a chart.


Look. Boundaries, setups, ride to next boundary. Cash in, repeat.

What a great example of PA in action. We just discussed this very chart last Thursday and here it is all again, doing the same things over, and over, and over..

I will never forget how this thread has changed my perspective from just seeing forests of bars to actually seeing things happen on my charts..for me, this changed everything.
simple and beautiful, isn't it....? and no AH strategy required....
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  #9029  
Old Feb 7, 2008 9:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
can we go back to 12100...?
we got 12100, do we get a pb now...?
it's make it or break it.....
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  #9030  
Old Feb 7, 2008 9:49am
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pin off the ppz... back to another price pivot...
LOL... pb off the lowest ppz
where are we heading...
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  #9033  
Old Feb 7, 2008 10:20am
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what's next.. a DB or 91..?
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  #9093  
Old Feb 13, 2008 11:02am
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Default trading in a zone

daily PB good for 250ps...
do we get a breakout this time around..?
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  #9094  
Old Feb 13, 2008 12:03pm
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it'll be interesting to see if dow can break that confluence.. or will fall right down..
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  #9124  
Old Feb 14, 2008 6:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Daily pin on the pound/yen after it failed to take out 214. It might forming a bearish flag formation (I think that's what it's called anyways). Anyone else like this one? Anyways, hopefully we can ride this back down to 207-208.

Argh, I'm going to Japan in 3 weeks and the yen's soooo high right now. I'm going to be eating nothing but ramen soup for the next 3 months I guess!
yes, and a nice one off ppz. managed to catch it on 4hr at 213.46.... bernarke did the rest..
let's see if it breaks.
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  #9125  
Old Feb 14, 2008 6:50pm
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..another aggressive 4hr entry (2.1759) today after rejection of ppz
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  #9128  
Old Feb 14, 2008 8:26pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zmin View Post
I would look for a rebound on this pair soon. IMO
a rebound after This speech... ? ..not sure...
I wouldn't be surprised to see 210.50 soon..
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  #9135  
Old Feb 15, 2008 10:36am
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Default 210.50

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
a rebound after This speech... ? ..not sure...
I wouldn't be surprised to see 210.50 soon..
Mission accomplished..... ... reloading....
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  #9136  
Old Feb 15, 2008 11:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Mission accomplished..... ... reloading....
break of support, retest and.....
Mike's favorite....
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  #9140  
Old Feb 15, 2008 8:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosgrove View Post
classic head and shoulders with a pin bar bouncing off of the neckline which happened to be SPOT ON the weekly R1 level. Does it get any better?
no, it doesn't...lol
This is the most conservative way for me..
I exited all yen and chfs positions when dow hit ppz at 12280
enjoy the weekend (long one for us here)

BTW. I used some of PA posted here to obtain these results in a short contest, using 'only' 18% margin.
What I'm trying to say is that PA and PF rules......

.
.
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  #9160  
Old Feb 19, 2008 9:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobblong View Post

.. Zoopy you need to keep your ears closer to the ground to understand what is up with the trend ...
ouch.. there is no need for that here.
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  #9163  
Old Feb 19, 2008 10:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy View Post

Raczekfx did you short that pair? I know there's a ppz in that area where it just hit that high. Plus... we may have a 1 hour pinbar
no, as I think 1.02 is due..
... watching pa on 4hr (a/u, n/u, g/chf)..
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  #9172  
Old Feb 19, 2008 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post

SORRY FOR MY QUESTIONS I AM TRYING TO LEARN THIS PA...
If that's the case.. I'd move up few TFs...
Last good entry based on PA was around 112.20 with sl above 114.70 according to my charts.
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  #9180  
Old Feb 19, 2008 3:38pm
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3196
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  #9187  
Old Feb 19, 2008 8:40pm
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still in the zone... are we going to get a break out in europe..?
it will probably be a violent one..
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  #9208  
Old Feb 20, 2008 11:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post
I think you call it BUVB.....
nope, if it closes like on your chart, it will be BEOVB
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  #9221  
Old Feb 21, 2008 6:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
I would agree with the post that says read through the free material first. I have been with J16 for about 4 months, and it is certainly worth the time and money, ......
amen to that. I've been with J16 since Jan. 2006....
It's worth every penny...
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  #9222  
Old Feb 21, 2008 6:55pm
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an IB4.. on daily
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  #9223  
Old Feb 21, 2008 8:36pm
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Default EJ

daily N bar off ppz
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  #9224  
Old Feb 21, 2008 8:42pm
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Default e/g

BEOVB...
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  #9225  
Old Feb 21, 2008 9:07pm
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Default GU

TL, PPZ, macd div confluence ...
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  #9244  
Old Feb 22, 2008 12:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post
Thanks man

Can you post another example in chart ?

and please explain how should i trade such a PA?

Thanks Again
Shay
it's all in this thread..
.
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  #9246  
Old Feb 22, 2008 12:12pm
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I'm already in this trade and couple other yen crosses.. and I will be watching today's close with interest..

have a good weekend all
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  #9251  
Old Feb 22, 2008 1:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post
WHAT PA SHOW YOU TO GO SHORT ON THIS PAIR, IN THE WEEKLY I SEE BAR WITH ONLY A PROBABLE OF MAKING PB ...?

Thanks
Shay
.
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  #9281  
Old Feb 26, 2008 10:19pm
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nu
.
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  #9283  
Old Feb 26, 2008 11:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Dude, you've given me so many setups lately. LOL

Got a good boost to the account from the GBPCHF ppz setups for starters!

So here's a return present...

IB4 on Oil 4hr
yeah, I tend to do that when I have too much time on my hand.. (got a stop that)
you're kind of late with that oil tip, bro.., someone has already sold me one below...

.
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  #9285  
Old Feb 26, 2008 11:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Ouch! How much did he charge?? You realise that's an old one??
only $129/month and then free after 12 months.
he, he.. it's only the old one if it's closed..:
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  #9297  
Old Feb 27, 2008 8:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Raczek will probably clarify his position, but the marked area was a Outside Bar (bullish) coming off a resistance/turned support zone. Pretty good setup.
On my charts it was a pin. (brokers on different time frames)

Also a good example of how price may only roughly respect lines at times. If you stick to using price action to confirm trades, that roughness don't matter.

Hope this helps.
Amen!
It?s basic j16 stuff and the most conservative imo. ? unfortunatelly this one was on demo only...
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  #9308  
Old Feb 27, 2008 6:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post
Hi, i can see this PA but i am trying to understad how did you trade it...?
did you made buy with the breakout of the outside bar or from his bottom ?
where did you place your stop?

as i know you should trade it with breakout of the outside bar....your purple line is in the bottom did you bought thier? if yes please explain....(may be i am wrong)

Thanks
Shay
it's a simple trade taken after retest of a breakout area.. If pa develops after you take a trade, that's great.. you can scale in again and again..
sl was few ps below previous bars low (feb 11)..
below is another example of similar trade...
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  #9318  
Old Feb 28, 2008 9:48am
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Default what's cooking ?

..
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  #9321  
Old Feb 28, 2008 6:37pm
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I know, some of the FF ?newsmans? discussed quick resurrection of carries and equities, but after listening to mr. b talk today and paulsons bailout objections.. I?m not so sure ..
Whatever? , Price broke daily TL and is currently sitting on ppz. Can we get down to 206 ... daily pa could suggest that. Let?s watch and see .
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  #9325  
Old Feb 28, 2008 8:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fsiltd View Post
...I'm looking for 204.59'ish as a longer-term downside target.

It?s actually short term target for me.. Europe opens in just few hours?
let's watch dow's futures for clues... (202?..)
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  #9328  
Old Feb 29, 2008 8:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cologg View Post
Hi,
I'm a major lurker here and love the thread.
Was a member of PF at the start but had to leave for other reasons.
Am studying hard now and just wanted some advice from you experts on this demo trade I'm currently in.

The questions is, where would you put your SL?
I know everyone might have a different view, but the views would be nice to hear.

I've previously put the SL above each retracement (marked on chart)
You will see my TP1, TP2, TP3 etc and I've now hit the next TP level.
I have other TP levels at/around 205.80 and again at 204.60/204.90

Would you set you SL to previous TP levels to lock in profit?

Cheers for any advice.
Colin.
I'm no expert, but I took g/j based on daily BEOV and at the same time shorted e/j, a/j, n/j and c/j. I would take some profit now and place my stops just above TP3 on your chart
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  #9334  
Old Feb 29, 2008 9:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheelu View Post
Hi Friends,

Took this long pin bar trade , but got stopped out.
Looked good to me since it seemed to be holding support at trend line that I drew and also along the moving averages .

Longer term was up . Thats why i thought it was a good trade.intermediate trend was down.

Could someone please help me understand why i shouldn't have taken this trade ?

Thanks
have a good day
well, my tl looks a bit different than yours... but regardless of how we draw it. It is always worth while looking at higher TF before pulling the trigger.
you took that pin on bearish daily bar after tl gave up. As Bundy said, not all pin works... You're probably only a technical trader and thats fine, but listening to what's happening in the kitchen helps sometimes...
I couldn't believe my ears when I heard mr. b saying that 'some banks will probably go under given current circumstances'... it was like Christmas present in February.... I had no choice but to sell house of yen crosses. Swissy crosses were hinting everyone for the last 3 days. Their PA simply gave feds away... i never go xx.jpy long when xxx/chf falls, but that's just me... good weekend everyone..
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  #9396  
Old Mar 4, 2008 1:09pm
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check out PA on gold and oil... this isn't just a profit taking...

are we going to get stronger $ in days to come, central bankers intervention?
...perhaps.. let's see...
I'm sure those, who know will make a killing... follow the big footsteps
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  #9436  
Old Mar 5, 2008 11:48am
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Feb. 26 Breakout, pullback to 9720 (and TP if you're short), and lift off...... to another TP (ppz)
Mike's got to love it....

Do we get another break out?... I wouldn't bet on it until we see what bank of england will have to say tomorrow.
Personally, I wouldn't mind to see daily pb tomorrow, off 2.0020....will see
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  #9440  
Old Mar 5, 2008 3:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sergen View Post
nice raczekfx,

i have buy post at 1.9813, 1.9840,19872 and 1.9919.... should i let it run ?
... lol... I don't know. I would certainly take some profit around 9940/60 and move my stops as this is resistance area.. . But then again, It's just me, and I'm not trading forex for fun or treat it as some sort of video game. For me, this is serious business, where you can improve the way you live and make serious money. That's all.
Trading doesn't have to be difficult. (hint: chart below)
many pips.
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  #9456  
Old Mar 6, 2008 7:27am
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... and another grandma trade.
.
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  #9460  
Old Mar 6, 2008 9:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
Wasnt it. Rode it up, and now south....
yup, I 'made' exit on both g/j and g/chf when g/chf hit the upper channel (4hr). Until it breaks to the upside we'll back to range trading....
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  #9462  
Old Mar 6, 2008 9:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sergen View Post
i'm in those trade... but i narrow down to tf1h for entry... stop out by TSL +50
not my tf, I value my time....
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  #9479  
Old Mar 7, 2008 10:00am
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Best NFP ever, I think I'm dreaming...lol. $$ gets a boost from bad data, yen weakens, swissy weakens.... It almost looks like conspiracy theory...
Let's harvest those pips.....

p.s. some say pa from nf continues on following monday, so judge your risk accordingly. Have a fabulous weekend everyone..
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  #9483  
Old Mar 7, 2008 11:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canados View Post
uj tested a STRONG long term support. I think it will go up a lot in the next days

regards
agreed, if dollar strengthens, yen will weaken quickly..
If that's the case, I'm looking for a test of 105.50 next week or so...
anyone remembers Nov7/07 and usd/cad...

big leverage, rush and greed will put you crying in a fetal position one day... It's not a pleasant experience. Slow and steady, and capital preservation will do miracles to your account over time....
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  #9486  
Old Mar 7, 2008 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shayb View Post
i know it...but it was mistake i forgot to change the leverage...it start with big leverage...and i did not changed it...this mistake cost me alot of money...
sorry to hear that shayb. Forex in NOT a video game... there are big sharks out there everywhere feeding on mistakes like that. Treat this as a business with strict rules and you'll never forget. You probably saw the move south and wanted to jump in 'pronto'.... a big no no... . Market will be here long after we bite the dust, so don't rush. Once you're realize it that there is another setup coming, you should not regret missed opportunities. There are plenty more to come.
many pips..
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  #9492  
Old Mar 7, 2008 1:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canados View Post
EURUSD
I was a huge TLs fan back a couple of years ago.... (You can ask Seeking Light of zoopy if you care), and did quite ok trading them... but mine looks a bit different...
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  #9534  
Old Mar 12, 2008 1:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swami S View Post
..

How do we get the order flows, or should i say how much do we need to get them?

SS
We don't ,... they're only good for sis...s ... and 10pip scalpers .

(4950)
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  #9555  
Old Mar 14, 2008 8:41am
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Last leg....?
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  #9556  
Old Mar 14, 2008 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Last leg....?
probably..
when the street starts talking about.." Collective Interventions by Central Banks" you better tighten your stops... . And when it's a better time to intervene than now?
I'm telling you.... when your house keeper going $ short and talking about $$$ demise, you can almost be sure the TOP is near..
good weekend to all.
.
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  #9574  
Old Mar 16, 2008 11:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Humdeedumdeedum update :P
Nice.. just closed all my positions: yen longs and $ shorts about half an hour ago. I never expected such a gift from feds on Sunday. I think, it's time to take few weeks of vacation now . Next couple weeks should be very volatile and I wouldn't be surprised to see yen weaken several hundred pips in just few short hours if we get boj step up to the plate...
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  #9579  
Old Mar 17, 2008 9:34am
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Oh, but we've only just begun...even the BOJ can't wipe away these crucial breakdowns.
nuh... enough is enough ...let's turn the wheel around...
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  #9580  
Old Mar 17, 2008 1:02pm
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perhaps some of you took advantage of this nice beovb (tbhlc..?)..
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  #9581  
Old Mar 17, 2008 1:07pm
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perhaps some of you took advantage of this nice beovb (tbhlc)..
or this....?
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  #9582  
Old Mar 17, 2008 1:10pm
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.... crude april 08
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  #9585  
Old Mar 17, 2008 2:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post

Quite frankly I am wondering whether it's time for the buck to get some payback in now...have a feeling 1.6 won't be the next roundish number we hit on EURUSD,
my feeling exactly...
Perfect time for coordinated intervention would be tomorrow @ 14:15 est.
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  #9587  
Old Mar 17, 2008 3:55pm
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Originally Posted by kptMisiu View Post
good spot for the right price action...
I'd say 97 looks better...
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  #9589  
Old Mar 17, 2008 4:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler812 View Post
I just jumped in on this PB on the AUD/USD 4H chart. Did anyone else buy this one?

Tyler
Good luck with that trade Tyler.., not sure why you did (), but..
Just by looking at this daily bar, I'd........ and then....
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  #9590  
Old Mar 17, 2008 4:43pm
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Good luck with that trade Tyler.., not sure why you did (), but..
Just by looking at this daily bar, I'd........ and then....

There is a reason why aussie is getting hammered today...
There is also plenty of good trades out there, guys. Don't push it.. If you missed it. There will be more. You rush it... and will end up wiring more money to your accounts sooner or later....
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  #9599  
Old Mar 18, 2008 9:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Ciceroni View Post
Hi raczek.

Just a small question about the latest BEOB in GU. Is there any reason you think this time, BEOB 2, will work better than BEOB 1?

Neither BEOB seems to really react from a strong ppz, although maybe the ppz at 1.9935-70 was close enough and became support to cause a failure of BEOB 1, whereas this ppz is further away from BEOB 2?

BEOB 2 does have a greater range relative to it's prior bar than BEOB 1, and maybe this adds more potency to the probable success of BEOB 2??

Or do you think they are equally valid?
Hi Ciceroni,
Sorry for late reply by I was busy with yen...
I don't really spend too much time contemplating which beovb will work stronger as I'm usually in the trade a day before they form since I'm PPZ/confluence trader. First one was taken off of 50fib and ppz, second off 61fib/ppz. Price stopped around 9940, which was another good PPZ and area to watch for a strong bounce given the fact that feds are about to lower rates by 100points today. I expected price to slow down here/stop or reverse or perhaps go test another pivot around 9750, which was also a 61fib (Jan 22/March 14 swing)
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  #9601  
Old Mar 18, 2008 3:20pm
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trailing stop was hit and trade reversed to short @ 1.5750...
We've just got a daily PB break few min ago...
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  #9606  
Old Mar 18, 2008 4:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...in too.

A couple of little trend lines and MAs to hop over, then I'm adding.

Some easy trades there the past little while. Aaaaaaalways nice to see.
Yes, indeed... (yen was just awesome...)

I wanted to manually pull the trigger at 1.5780, few min after feds took the stage, but decided to let market show me direction instead..
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  #9613  
Old Mar 19, 2008 10:18am
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Watch the aussie if this support breaks..
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  #9615  
Old Mar 19, 2008 12:33pm
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another one....
with pressure on commodities.. it just had to give up..
(few lines ... and dozens of indicators...)
oook, back to my cave ...
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  #9631  
Old Mar 20, 2008 4:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groovygravy View Post
Good People of the james16 thread: Please tell us what you believe the best markets are for trading 5 minute charts using price action.

These markets do not have to be forex. Futures, options, futures on options?

What have you experienced?

Thank you!
mini dow
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  #9641  
Old Mar 20, 2008 7:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..
or perhaps go test another pivot around 9750, which was also a 61fib (Jan 22/March 14 swing)
out to the bank...
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  #9647  
Old Mar 20, 2008 5:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler812 View Post
Cable looks promising...
I think you've got fib wrong tyler..., but yes, 9740 was excellent tp and reverse area with multi confluence present.. . Let's see how will that pb play out.
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  #9687  
Old Mar 24, 2008 9:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swami S View Post
Fresh jiuce everyday if you can. The whole family in one hit.
Carrot apple base then go veg, greens, beets whatever you like or go full friut
ginger for those who will.


Colloidal silver for bacterial infections, digestive esp, also great for tooth abcesses and the like.

Bitter herbs if a cold or flu wont shift. boneset/yarrow
Elderflower if its light.

All the best
SS
A couple drops of THIS per glass of water/day and you will never know what flue feels like. My entire family has been using it for last few years with great results. You can even buy it at Walmart for $20, I think...

Discl: it tastes awful.
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  #9700  
Old Mar 27, 2008 4:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihali View Post
what do you guys think about this daily pin? I think it worth taking it.
A nice one; off PPZ/TL/61fib confluence
Let's see how it plays out. I added few areas for you to watch, if you take it.
.
ps. No definite PA on fiber to indicate short, but watch it very, very closely (good r/r???.....
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  #9711  
Old Mar 28, 2008 8:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihali View Post
we had a nice fall as we all expected. price is stalling around 1.9950 as you indicated on your chart.
I took partial profit. hope continuing its way down.
9950 was where I took 1/3 off the market and moved sl to be
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  #9712  
Old Mar 28, 2008 9:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihali View Post
I started reading thread now at page 208. a long way to go. it will take 2-3 months to finish reading and practicing. after that I would like to join PF as well. really waiting for that.
I read it several times, but from 2nd time onwards, I had a filter on...
Only read those by James16 and mbqb11 ...
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  #9754  
Old Mar 30, 2008 10:37am
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With two daily IBs, things should get very interesting soon!
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  #9762  
Old Mar 30, 2008 11:27pm
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Exclamation word of caution for new PA enthusiasts

Some very nice PBs do fail.. even if taken off monthly pivot...
This is why it's important to only take be best PA setups and demo them first...
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  #9768  
Old Mar 31, 2008 8:20am
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..
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  #9770  
Old Mar 31, 2008 2:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
Or give up fighting strong trends and enter PA trades only with the trend. It is the only thing that i really disagree with what Jim teaches and that is the trend is at the top of my check list and not in the middle somewhere. Just my opinion.

You see, It all depends on your trading style. I’m a price pivot trader, so when that pin broke south, I was already some 140ps in profit. Unfortunetly my ego kicked in, looking for exit at 0.76 and refused to take some profit. Trading with a trend has adventages, no question, but a setup is a setup… And that was one hell of a pin imho. There is no sure thing in trading, we’re trading odds, so picking the best of them will let you enjoy this business a little longer. .

Onto the next one...Let's enjoy free fall on fiber over the next few days..

BTW. that pin was a loss for me..

Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 1, 2008 8:15am
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  #9772  
Old Mar 31, 2008 3:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Why embarrassed Rac??

Losses are the fee we need to pay !!

... cause you never, ever let your winner become a loser!!!

It was just a few pip loss, but when you think about the amount of pips allowed to let go, it's just not acceptable. One day, we get to trade 10 lot (and more)/trade and this is .... #@#@$.
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  #9773  
Old Mar 31, 2008 3:32pm
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check out the open and close on cable's monthly bars highlighted... very interesting.. . We should get one more bar like that before significant drop lower.

just kidding of course..
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  #9776  
Old Mar 31, 2008 8:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ellipses View Post
Hi raczekfx

When u see the 2 pins and a inverted pb from last month, what do you "see" in terms of price action. How do u make use of that info on the charts to help in your trading decision?
I too was looking at it for some time but all i know of is to use it to enter trades in that direction (e.g. a bullish PB means i have full lots on long). But is a little caution now as it seems to me that the market for cable is a little directionless but with a bias on short side now.

Thanks
Let's start with 2 PBs that broke out higher. If you're conservative trader you go long at 1.9970 and If you're like me, you look for the next ppz with some kind of confluence to exit. In attached example the move was good for 300+ pips.
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  #9778  
Old Mar 31, 2008 8:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Let's start with 2 PBs that broke out higher. If you're conservative trader you go long at 1.9970 and If you're like me, you look for the next ppz with some kind of confluence to exit. In attached example the move was good for 300+ pips.
We now have another monthly pin and conservative short entry would be around 1.97 with possibility to go down to 1.90 if US were to stop its cycle of lowering rates, and GB and Europe started cutting. Monthly is very long TF and not my favorite so I always look for opportunities on weekly and daily TFs. If you look on weekly, you'll see weekly PPZ around 1.97, and I would say that area would give you some hard time if you're anticipating short trade. From a daily TF you should still be short if you took a daily PB around 2.0.
I only look at monthly to get the bigger picture and since it appears that cable reversed its uptrend, I will trade accordingly. Contrary to what Kate and Boris are saying, I tend to see stronger $$ in months to come. Canada?s economy is very good yet they?ve already announced easing cycle. I know that Canadian economy is very close related to US, but I?d be seriously surprised if Europe, Australia and New Zealand continued their tightening policy.
From the past I noticed that it take a bit longer to turn around European titanic, but it will eventually happen. The most money is being lost when ship is turning around. Let's see.
Happy trading.
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  #9789  
Old Apr 1, 2008 9:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Onto the next one...Let's enjoy free fall on fiber over the next few days..
out half at 1.5603, rest at BE+100
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  #9791  
Old Apr 1, 2008 1:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
same with me (roughly). learning quickly from you, rac!

RM
I'm very glad you're doing well... RM.

As much as I love B/S on ppz touches they eventually break. We've had a good run for the last three days. Cable usually reverse after 4/5 days of losses so let's see if get to 1.9640 by tomorrow morning. PPZ at 97xx is significant imo and if it goes we might see a drop of couple hundred pips... But this is prediction and predictions have no place in this business, so let's stick to PA....

ps. as for the euro I wish it bounces to 57 so I get a chance to reload, but I'm not as optimistic as MPP from jacko's thread..
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  #9826  
Old Apr 2, 2008 12:23pm
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Great chart examples Bundy.

I'm watching this like an eagle..... My bet is 204.50 high before..@#@#@. Same applies to other yen crosses.
Let's get some PA here..
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  #9830  
Old Apr 2, 2008 2:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Great chart examples Bundy.

I'm watching this like an eagle..... My bet is 204.50 high before..@#@#@. Same applies to other yen crosses.
Let's get some PA here..
Equities are approaching very solid ppz with confluence. If it breaks you'll see yen crosses shoot up much, much higher. I'll be looking for reversal in equities some 100-200ps from current level and hopefully it'll get some pa to buy yen (sell crosses).

It's great, people find information useful in this thread..
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  #9831  
Old Apr 2, 2008 3:52pm
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limit sell hit..
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  #9832  
Old Apr 2, 2008 3:58pm
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.
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  #9837  
Old Apr 3, 2008 9:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
..

I'm watching this like an eagle..... My bet is 204.50 high before..@#@#@.
almost to a pip...
so far US news is also gooood..
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  #9838  
Old Apr 3, 2008 9:40am
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Price went exactly when expected. For some, 5500/20 could've been a perfect TP and reverse area. Now we get confirming PA.
Will it work out?.. time will tell. See you tomorrow after NFP....

P.A.
Notes for myself..
Be careful. Such big volatility could be associated with trend change in eur/usd. jacko turtles be careful

also "watching" g/chf
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  #9851  
Old Apr 4, 2008 9:03am
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Default fiber - aggressive ppz trading

sometimes it works other times it doesn't.

Limit sell triggered @ 5747 during NFP. It is also now a free trade.

.
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  #9852  
Old Apr 4, 2008 9:21am
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let's see how cable ends the day.
If price won't change much, we'll get a pin off 61/TL resting right on PPZ
.
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  #9853  
Old Apr 4, 2008 9:28am
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how about this g/j...? or e/j, u/j or g/chf... or Dow
Have a great weekend guys....:wave:
it'll be the busy one...
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  #9865  
Old Apr 6, 2008 6:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post

Will it work out?.. time will tell. ....
It was a great pin, good for almost 160ps before price hit the wall.

The one from Friday is still waiting to be broken.
.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 6, 2008 11:33pm Reason: added second chart for those who needs extra confirmation before trading PA, :-)
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  #9867  
Old Apr 6, 2008 10:20pm
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Pin broke and price is currently sitting on short term ppz.
If this is what zoopy and I were anticipating since Friday's NFP, things might get ugly for fiber longs... Let's see what euro session will bring...
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  #9871  
Old Apr 6, 2008 11:05pm
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... another great trade! off resistance with PA confirmation....

.
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  #9886  
Old Apr 8, 2008 9:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
Just Closed it 1,9780.
very nice trade

Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
But nobody has here any trade man. plan? Or don t want to talk about it?
THX, Laszlo
we do, but how many times you want to repeat the same thing over and over again.....

here are some of mine...
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  #9911  
Old Apr 8, 2008 5:01pm
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What happens next....
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  #9920  
Old Apr 8, 2008 7:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPP View Post
Clueless

but my view would be that this would normally be bearish - how far?

my problem is that the daily chart has been following along a nice TL, which currently sits around 1.566x and has held up well, also support is in the same arena, so do we look to the weekly or 4h charts, each again tells a different tale, the 4h has 2 bullish inside candles but the weekly also has a bullish tone to it as it failed to break support but the candle closed lower - bearish.

Maybe i'm just to much of a bull on EU, i know i have much to learn and felt that someone should try to answer this - if only to get a good talking too.
I’m a bear right now and looking forward to test that TL you mentioned (around 1.5530) and its break lower eventually, to test price pivot near 1.5000. I might be terribly wrong and that’s why stop is in place, but because of G7 approaching and ECB rate announcement on Thursday, I don’t know of many bulls who are willing push it higher in the next 48 hours. Last night we had an attempt that failed … I'd love to see another one but doubt it. We shall see. Let's PA unfold...

P.S. what I also like, is yen getting weaker again and that's been a sign of a stronger $ for me in the past.
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  #9930  
Old Apr 9, 2008 11:21am
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so much for euro pb in a consolidation area....
.
crude is hitting new high with divergence. Let's see if we get some PA in the next few days..
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  #9931  
Old Apr 9, 2008 11:28am
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gu's testing ppz after its break...
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  #9943  
Old Apr 10, 2008 10:06am
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Default e/u tripple top ?

In a trade @ 1.5870 with tight stop
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  #9946  
Old Apr 10, 2008 11:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
In a trade @ 1.5870 with tight stop
1/3 off the table (120), rest at BE+2, hopefully we get tl break soon.
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  #9949  
Old Apr 10, 2008 12:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
1/3 off the table (120), rest at BE+2, hopefully we get tl break soon.
thanks Seek... don't you think it's kind of crazy to see those 200ps daily ranges on euro.. ? It's not a complain though..

I'd love to see retrace to 5800/20 again to confirm my train of thoughts... we'll see. To be completely honest I felt confident with this short by observing PA on gold and oil after mr. stubborn-trichet speech... plus all the stop orders buildup from jacko's turtles... It was worth giving a try...
hope you did well.
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  #9956  
Old Apr 10, 2008 6:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gagiul View Post
what do you think about all the PBs on yen crosses today? Are they good setups? My fear is that this was an artificial move and tomorrow the market will resume its normal trend, which is down.
It’s hard to tell. it all depends on how equities and dollar behave. If dollar strengthens more, carry trades should resume their march higher. There is constant struggle between PPTeam and sellers in equities in the last few days. If dow loses 12,450 support, I’d think yen crosses will suffer. Just watch the $$$ and dow. We could be witnessing trend change on fiber today although it’s much too early to be sure, but if that happens, carries will get the green light imho. I'm moving my eu sl to 5830 (above 50fib) just in case..
many pips
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  #9963  
Old Apr 10, 2008 7:37pm
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I noticed some folks from other threads were eager to jump long on gj after daily pb formed.
There is nothing wrong with that, as long as you know what's ahead of you. Always check where is the next ppz.
There is a good reason why that pin ended where it ended....
When I closed short xx/jpy trades early moning and thought of reversing (never did), that area would be my TP

edit:
I went long g/j (just before 8pm est) @ 200.60 with 30ps stop.

.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 10, 2008 8:18pm Reason: added long xxx/jpys
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  #9974  
Old Apr 10, 2008 10:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
And, of course, taking trade at the open with a tight s/l after the Pin Bar is another option. Nice, raczekfx.
and another area to watch for (price slowing down?)... and so on...
.
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  #9989  
Old Apr 11, 2008 1:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
ohhh u, big shark!! Dont u get tired of being rigth so often?????

Great call Rac!!

Have a good weekend people!!

Matt
not so big.. , unless you're referring to e/u

as you know from our chat last night, I was stopped out above 201 by my 15ps () trailing stop.... Since it's not PA based, we'll not talk about it here. if equities keep falling like this, I would not be surprised to see a gap on Sunday (196/7)

have a good one yourself Matt

p.s.
as for the yen crosses fall... thank the dow. remember my chart from last night...?
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  #10001  
Old Apr 11, 2008 9:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
raczekfx, do you trade the Dow, or do you just watch it to get a hint of where the USD pairs could be heading?
no dow trading... yet

Quote:
Originally Posted by sarama001 View Post
Raczekfx, please clear your PM box. It is full.
will do on the weekend sarama

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
rac, why you took the short exactly at 1.5870?

another think: what was your final result in the Fxsol championship? i read only one message about it but i am not reading the thread all days.

thanks in advance.
that's the price fill I got. it was more of going short while observing how price was reacting to ECB news than PA setup, but it coincides on 1hr pb close...

10,000 posts.... Not bad at all...Congrats Jim and everyone..
..
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  #10027  
Old Apr 14, 2008 10:32am
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Default g/j

.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 14, 2008 12:46pm
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  #10028  
Old Apr 14, 2008 10:36am
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Default uj

.
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  #10031  
Old Apr 14, 2008 12:36pm
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a PB confirmation off the low?
.. does it give a signal to go long on carries and dow...?
we shall see in just few short hours how good it was.

p.s.
not a recommendation, just an observation....
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  #10039  
Old Apr 14, 2008 4:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Well GBPJPY is still suffering..here, let me post some funky geometry
This is how bad it gets when I don't stop drawing ;p
I keep on seeing new stuff to put in, especially on 1h..(even just now after posting, on the top right - there's a support -> resistance flip I didn't draw in!)

This declining TL is pretty much mirrored on GBPUSD..question is to which side we'll break, no?

I for one quite frankly do not side with the "the bottom is in" believers in regards to carry and S&P/DJI...I think we still have to get that one big wakeup call move(whenever, but we DO need to see it imho).
I'm not Picasso either..
Since we haven't recorded lower low today and Dow hasn't scared me much either, I'm seeing ########## on g/j.
We'll see....
One thing is certain; It will break out in the next few days.

p.s.
you know my yen trading is tied to chfs... ;-)
.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 14, 2008 4:56pm
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  #10064  
Old Apr 15, 2008 12:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dd4x View Post
raczekfx,

What broker are you using? I am using MT4 on IBFX and my 4hr chart does not match yours from post 10042. Yours looks like shooting fish in a barrel!

Thanks,

D
I use NorthFinance (for charting only)

... waiting for a pa confirmation, supporting divergence ...
.
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  #10066  
Old Apr 15, 2008 12:28pm
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fiber in its final day before the breakout...??? (up/down - matters not)

My sell limit order set last night (5896) was missed by few pips. I was looking for a fake break out to 5920/40 and day ending with a 100p-nose PB.
Well, it appears we'll get an IB instead. I'm still favoring sharp move down, but since it's mostly 'crystal balling' and gut feeling... we don't discuss it here....
.
.
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  #10068  
Old Apr 15, 2008 3:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
Why do you anticipate a breakout? Is it mainly due to the number of IB's that you have highlighted, the ranginess of the Euro lately or instinct?. Or perhaps combination of all three?
a combination of them all.... lol
but on a serious note. have a look at this chart.
Ranges are getting smaller and euro is getting compressed.
What happens if you compress a balloon too much?
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  #10076  
Old Apr 15, 2008 9:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler812 View Post
Before someone yells at me, I did not mean to say that profiting in forex is easy. But when someone makes more winning trades than losing ones, and only takes trades with good r:r and implements strict mm rules, he will profit.

Tyler
even if your win ratio is only 38%, you can be very successful in this business.

checkout the Bird..
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  #10081  
Old Apr 16, 2008 8:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Four Kids View Post
raczekfx, why do you favour a sharp move down, and not up on the fiber?

How can one be be very successful with a win ratio of 38%?.

Gerard
On euro behavior vs oil yesterday…. So much for that theory right now; Bat bailed me out and reversed positions at 5855. Seeking, already answered your second question.
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  #10120  
Old Apr 17, 2008 9:09am
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price pulls back testing support, 61fib confluence of recent 4hr swing.. in trade.

.
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  #10124  
Old Apr 17, 2008 9:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baddison View Post
Yup, I'm with you, raczekfx!! This stuff just works!
Hello Baddison...

Isn't j16 pivot cool?
Price is about to test it for the 4th time on dow futures..
Let's see if it breaks it this time. My yen and chfs depend on it....

.
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  #10126  
Old Apr 17, 2008 9:52am
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Default up!

.

how high, sir...?
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  #10132  
Old Apr 17, 2008 11:51am
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Default g/chf

.
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  #10133  
Old Apr 17, 2008 12:00pm
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This is what I posted in Seeking Light journal a couple days ago...



Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx;58xx
I haven't traded cable since the last daily pb. Been busy with yen and fiber and diallist' true leverage.

...
Same thing for carries.. I can see g/j test 203/204 again this week while PPT is hard at work. i....
We've just hit 203.65..
ok.... back to cave
.
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  #10139  
Old Apr 17, 2008 1:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihali View Post
Can you explain me why did you take this one (and G/Y too)? There was a pin bar but it was in traffic. I see that the price is bounced off of the s/r. was it the only reason for going long?
I am referring to post 10135 and 10136
That's pretty much it, mihali. My trading style is not conservative and I trade bounces/touches off of S/R areas. If I am right PA usually forms on the same day or the day after. I might add more at that time. If I'm wrong.. that's where hard stops come into play.

p.s. i don't recommend this style of trading. in the first several pages of this trade you'll find everything you need to be successful trader after some practice. (..forgot to add, psychology is a major factor here... )
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  #10143  
Old Apr 17, 2008 3:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
Why did not you not take the previous Thursday pin? Still establishing resistance?
I wasn't paying attention at a time, I think. Or, it could've been, I thought long entry at a time would be like catching a falling knife... You don't have to take all the trades and hope for the best. Trading aggressively exposes you to a much greater risk so you have to be really picky. If in doubt even for one second... stay out!


Quote:
Originally Posted by wave catcher View Post
hey rac,

how do you determine that it is indeed a bounce off the S/R area initially (lower timeframe possibly)?

thanks,
wc
Sorry guys, we're getting off topic here by discussing individual trading styles. Let's talk PA again. So let's assume that the pair bounces off the low pivot and forms PA setup, a pin bar, IB or Beovb. If price breaks that setup to the upside, we can tell the bounce was successful and we're in a trade with good probability of making some money.
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  #10159  
Old Apr 18, 2008 10:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags View Post
Just a question, did anyone play that I4B on Tuesday for GBPJPY?
It worked out ok.
200 pip risk and now it's up over 700. Not bad.....
(I missed out on that BTW... )
209.20 is my last target...
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  #10161  
Old Apr 18, 2008 11:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags View Post
Beautiful.
Now that's a trade.
... and reverse ?...
.when dj hits 12900/13k


.

Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 18, 2008 12:08pm
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  #10163  
Old Apr 18, 2008 12:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
GBPUSD bearish outside bar on H4 with 50% fib confluence (possible pinbar on daily)
just watch that sell stop line on your chart. It's also a daily ppz, we just broke to the upside. It may, may not act as a support now.
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  #10188  
Old Apr 21, 2008 4:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roger0078200 View Post
awesome tyler...gbp/usd..does look like a nice long
.
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  #10190  
Old Apr 21, 2008 5:16pm
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uj, gj

.
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  #10193  
Old Apr 21, 2008 7:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by byorkFX View Post
racekfx,

Are you going for bearish g/u with your charts? I see the monthly pin, but I think it looks more indecisive than bearish (2 monthly bullish pins followed by a bearish pin followed by the current month bar which appears to me to be indecisive). The daily bar is definitely bearish, but the weekly (not shown in your chart set) shows a BUOVB from last week which says bullish. I'd say g/u is indecisive, but I'd like to hear your opinion. I know that the charts should tell me everything, but I'm not there yet and I would appreciate any comments you have.

Thanks,
Brian
If I were to trade daily Beob, I'd wait for retracement to about 1.9880/1.9920 before going short. As you already said, we have a Buovb on weekly and price already bounced off of 61 fib. I prefer to see these kind of bars at swing high/low (just like pbs) though. Since I don't know what will happen next, I stay aside. My bias is neutral, however if we see oil loosing ground I will turn US bull.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 21, 2008 7:57pm
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  #10195  
Old Apr 21, 2008 7:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue View Post
Hi, raczekfx

I knew you are very popular, a lot of people mentioned you are great pro. so, if there be opportunity could learn from you , that will be very nice. not for sure if could have your reply, in any case, my curiosity drives me to ask this question, hope you don't mind to answer.

for the monthly view of GBPUSD, if doing an addition for the three, or probably four Pin Bars, would you consider them as a doji as a whole( I assume you knew what is doji,sorry, for this stupid assumption,surely, you knew what is doji)?

if any other people have different view about this, please welcome to comment. for me, some times, PA + PPZ + Fib works good, but, the other time, not workable, not for sure what could be the problem when I analyze the market using this strategy. I guess there probably be other factors which need to be taken into account when identifying a quality PPZ.
Thanks, but I'm not a pro... Forex is a hobby of mine like many others. It can be expensive, other times might be rewarding. The problem with PA/ppz/fib is that they fail from time to time, just like any other methods or systems. There is no easy way to tell what's gonna happen next, that's why you NEED good MM and pick only the best probabilities. If I can have my 5 min. here, I'd say they work best when trading only in a direction of a major trend and supported by some fundies. I don't give a damn about fundies except for one thing. I need to know, who's raising interest rates and who's lowering them and when the cycle is changing. When feds stop and eurobank will start cutting you can be certain the titanic will turn its course and you can use that info to look for the best pa/ppz and fib or whatever else you use to look for short setups. There is a lot of hype and lies out there, so you need to learn not to trust anyone, but simply rely on your experience and trade best probabilities as I already mentioned. Oil is hitting all time high not because of fundies or supply and demand. You can hear bodman and bush feeding you with b.s that supply and demand driving its price trough the roof, but when you look the weekly numbers, you can see oil reserves going up every week. So what's happening.... ? We don't care, we're traders and follow the price to get some results.... lol.
ok. going back to your question about monthly gu. Since this is a fourth month where open and close appear to be at almost the same level, we're looking at equal strength of bulls and bears. Personally I don't see cable breaking that monthly pb (march) any time soon and if $ were given opportunity to gain strength, I would not be surprised to see.... 1.91 in months to come....
cheers,
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  #10226  
Old Apr 23, 2008 10:02am
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this might help:

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...3&postcount=17


Quote:
Originally Posted by EricthePip View Post
Hello,

Would anyone happen to have a trade log to calculate the units (in Oanda) based on the specific pair and the stop size (risk)??? I would like to risk a set amount on each trade, so the unit size will vary with the size of the stop. I trade in Oanda, and this would be a handy tool. You can enter a percentage in Oanda, but it deals more with Margins as opposed to risk.

Thanks,
Eric

email is eric_aldridge@yahoo.com
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  #10233  
Old Apr 23, 2008 3:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
A paper trade: I sold Gold, You see where, "raczek style". ....
lol...
this is my style... 50/60fib ret, ppz, tl, etc, confluence,... Kaaaabooooooom

.
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  #10234  
Old Apr 23, 2008 3:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
lol...
this is my style... 50/60fib ret, ppz, tl, etc, confluence,... Kaaaabooooooom

.
or you can go lower and wait for pull back...
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Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 23, 2008 4:14pm
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  #10235  
Old Apr 23, 2008 3:14pm
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it would be very interesting to see gold closed below that blue line on the weekly chart..
.
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  #10236  
Old Apr 23, 2008 3:24pm
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Exclamation

watch this TL....

If it breaks, this might create many, strong break outs opportunities on cad, chfs, jpys, xxx/usd. just to name a few. They might be several hundreds pips opportunities coming your way in a very short period of time.

I have uj at 108 and u/c at 106, fiber 1.54? (don't laugh ) on my radar screens.

As always, control your risk and use PA for clues..
.
ok. I used up my post limit for this week.
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  #10273  
Old Apr 25, 2008 8:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
lol...
this is my style... 50/60fib ret, ppz, tl, etc, confluence,... Kaaaabooooooom

.
Mission accomplished...target has been reached...
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  #10279  
Old Apr 25, 2008 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave catcher View Post
Hey rac,

Don't want to get off track in the thread, but did you take that nzd/usd trade based on what you saw going on with gold at the time? I know there was ppz there and some possible resistance from the fibs, but I was just wondering where you got your confirmation from to go ahead with the trade.

Thanks,
wc
Hey wc,

No, it wasn't gold. I don't look at gold too often. It was based on everything I normally do plus psychological effect on Kiwi when rates will remain unchanged. I placed my bets that lot of traders will be disappointed and worry about bank of NZ start cutting later this year. You know the rest from the chart.
Trading psychology plays a major role in my trading... and unlike others I KNOW it's not b.s...

r
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  #10280  
Old Apr 25, 2008 10:24am
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It appears, we end up with a weekly beovb.
Trade responsibly and have a great weekend all.

.
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  #10692  
Old May 8, 2008 11:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
I'm taking the Nzd/Jpy one, waiting for it to come down a bit more

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
I love being in good company.
... You guys are joking, right?
This is not even close to C trade. Unless you're scalping 10 pips, going against that weekly BEB makes no sense, at least to me. Before going down to 4hr make sure you're profitable on daily and weekly for at least several months. If you're not, there are plenty of others who will be happy to take money away from you.. on 4hr......

p.s. market will be here tomorrow. have patience and your account will grow faster than you think...
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  #10704  
Old May 9, 2008 8:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
I have to admit, I took the gj pin. It actually looked good to me on Alpari. But....I learned that it is safer to let price come to you nice and softly in its own natural market breathing, not when it is hyperventilating. Its easier to pick cherries when they are motionless on the branch then to run around and catch them when falling.

... Originally posted in the PF on May 5th.....

have a good weekend everyone!


Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Looking for g/j to slow down around 205.60/80 (if we don't break 209) and retest 203.... and with a bit of luck maybe 201..
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
So far so good. G/j slowed down at 205.50 or bounced off it and is now testing 203. Will it break daily ppz and says hello 201....
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  #10819  
Old May 16, 2008 12:18pm
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Perhaps this will help some of you believe in PA....

This is one of my demo accounts, where I trade based on material from james16 chart thread, j16website plus some common sense. This is high risk/high reward system, which includes taking trades on touches of ppz, fibs, pins, emas... etc..

... some 45000+ pips since mid January...

It is possible!!! Learn the material, practice, visualize your goals.. and you ARE successful..

Have a great weekend everyone.
.
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  #10822  
Old May 16, 2008 2:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui View Post
Belief in the system or the person trading it?

ps what is your commission for trading other peoples accounts
Believe in one's skills to pick the best probability trades and manage them properly.
LoL.... I don't trade (nor I want to) other peoples accounts. Trading is a hobby of mine... just like flying, fishing and time travel..
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  #10836  
Old May 17, 2008 4:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatis View Post
Wow 45.000 pips, that is a lot of pips.

I notice in your profile your trading experience is 5 years, may I know how many years I have to learn to master this stuff? let say average people.

BTW how many pairs do you trade?
Hi Jatis,
I can't really tell you how long it's gonna take you. Some people get good at it after several months, some will take years. Others will spend entire life trying to get this work... . It's a personal thing, but seeing you in this thread, I can tell, you’re on the right track. I'd say your chances are much better than others, who jump from thread to thread, from system to system..

I trade all yen crosses, majors and gbp/chf
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  #10895  
Old May 21, 2008 11:54am
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Default g/u

trade off v.good support..
.
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  #10907  
Old May 22, 2008 8:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
trade off v.good support..
.
almost there...
.
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  #10912  
Old May 22, 2008 11:51am
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this is what I'm watching like an eagle .....
.
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  #10913  
Old May 22, 2008 11:55am
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...and.... oil
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Last edited by raczekfx, May 22, 2008 12:11pm
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  #10921  
Old May 22, 2008 4:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TradeStar View Post
Hi,
Could you tell me what is this chart. Is this oil?

Thanks
TS
Yes, it is, but...... from tomorrow's feed..
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  #10923  
Old May 22, 2008 5:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Anyone's thoughts on a close of this if it stays like this? It's spelling out with confluence for me and so I plan on trading it. It looks solid unless I am missing something, which I honestly don't think I am.
Nice pin off 61 fib. If I shorted it, I'd have tight stop....
Here is another view. I took some of these longs off ppz....
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  #10975  
Old May 27, 2008 4:54pm
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Default PPZ

I love this chart.... PPZ or S/R trading is very powerful addition to PA. I've been using this daily dow futures chart since the beginning of the year for all my yen needs..
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  #10986  
Old May 28, 2008 3:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
EURUSD. BEOB at the same resistance former PB formed. First on 4h, then on daily. Once that closed, long pin bar on mini-PPZ to initiate the retrace up to the .618. Hit it to the pip along with several short orders(now who would do such a thing!) and dropped like a stone.

.
.......
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  #10998  
Old May 28, 2008 7:35pm
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weekly PA on g/cad.. and potential R areas.
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  #11002  
Old May 29, 2008 1:29pm
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Smile loving ppz

looking to ...., well you know what....
just watch the daily dj chart for clues...
.
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  #11003  
Old May 29, 2008 3:35pm
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longer term view...
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  #11004  
Old May 29, 2008 3:36pm
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... and short term view..
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  #11005  
Old May 29, 2008 3:40pm
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Default R-1d-db

plenty of opportunities everywhere...
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  #11015  
Old May 30, 2008 2:51pm
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Exclamation Fiber

We're ending this week with a nice, FAT TBHLC or if you look closely, we can say it's Beovb (by 4ps on my charts). Are we going to 1.4950 area next? In my mind there is no doubt and with a burst of oil bubble coming, we shall see it rather sooner than later... until then... have a great weekend folks.
trade responsibly!

R
.
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  #11039  
Old Jun 1, 2008 9:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
IB guys. Ready to play?

...and thanks for setting the alarm. heh heh heh
kind of late B for my liking....12700 - first touch was rejected on Thursday...
I'm not a big fan of IBs...
.
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  #11046  
Old Jun 2, 2008 8:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
looking to ...., well you know what....
just watch the daily dj chart for clues...
.
heading back home..?
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  #11047  
Old Jun 2, 2008 8:25am
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gu... ?
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  #11052  
Old Jun 2, 2008 11:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
gu... !
yup, bought the touch.... on its way to 9950..
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  #11054  
Old Jun 2, 2008 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khalchian View Post
Inside Bar broken to the downside on Daily timeframe.
Nice..
this chart is from May 29th (PF)

double top, 150, divergence, confluence....simply saying - trader's dream.....
.
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  #11056  
Old Jun 2, 2008 12:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
I guess this is just one of those that don't work out, despite looking like a good setup.

Any comments on this? Did anyone else take it ? Why yes or why wouldn't you ?
when in doubt, always check larger TF.
Taking 4hr pb with 25ps nose after daily BEB is kind of suicidal.. imho.
It was also in the middle of my established zone. I could consider taking it only if it formed off blue zone.
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  #11057  
Old Jun 2, 2008 12:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatis View Post
Good place to short USD-CAD? PPZ 1.0000 should play as strong resistance.
Any other idea?
If it closes above your top red line it will act as a resistance and good place to go long after retrace given proper PA
.
p.s. some of us actually went long when DB formed on 4hr with small stop
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  #11060  
Old Jun 2, 2008 3:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
that is a hell of a trade mark , i got in a small cad breakout way later today
I see, we evolved into 2 PA groups....
Breakers and touchers....
First being more mature and patient, second... cries often..., but if they're right........ :-)
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  #11063  
Old Jun 2, 2008 3:51pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
LOL mark, you mean you are crying all the way to the bank on trades like this.
lol.. no, what I meant is being stopped out 6-7 times in a row for 20-30ps before you get one 200ps homer. That's the price of touch trading. DB sure helps a lot if you spot them at the right time....


Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
after the bar that made the second touch? or where?

thanks in advance.
yes to 1st ?, 9840
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  #11066  
Old Jun 2, 2008 5:10pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
Rac, what is difficult to me is understand the price action used in that trade. Price never came back to 9817 (to put a buy limit on the second touch) . I can't see any price action on 15m, 1h, 4h. Maybe it was the close of the 4h bar but it was a DBHLC.

sorry if this is a stupid question, but i can't see the price action.

thanks in advance.
because there is no pa.
I use aggressive trading technique from time to time (to complement PA to come) once I made up my mind re: trade direction. I called it R-1hr db in the PF. It is however beyond the scope of this thread and not suitable for everyone, therefore you'd have to excuse me for not going into details here.
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  #11116  
Old Jun 5, 2008 4:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
In regards to todays euro.
This is the way i am looking at it
Yes If you look at the beob previiously it could be taken. but when you look at the surroundings it starts to look not so good.
1. its at a low or sideways mkt... its better as a reversal bar..
2. its right up on support which needs to break first. not by 5 pips but by 30-60 pips. to be convincing followed by retrace then continue down.

To disclose. I didnt take the long or short.. It was too undecided for me.
but others i know took the long this morning off the low on the euro & the pound.
I took the short on the swissy.
This is just my pespective.
Jeff
.. all that hard work in the PF makes magic come true....
Didn't it look like a tipple top on swissy...?
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  #11137  
Old Jun 8, 2008 10:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
I will like to interject my opinion once again.... haven't done it lately....

My principle attraction to J16 in the beginning was...... YES !!! Pin Bars.... why.. I actually thought... wow... so easy... gonna be a Pin Bar trader... just like Ademac !! Forex would suddenly be easy... I'd finally make it... and be a real trader after all this time....

Well..... not so quick.... maybe if you add up all the pin bars inthe world... and trade them all... you would come out ahead.... who knows.... ....


hey Tiki,

Have you got a chance to read this yet? It was probably a waste of time posting there. ..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=18

There are people reading this thread (you know who you are..), who only trade pin bars at swing low/high using anything from 5 to 12% of their accounts on each trade. If it takes them to wait a couple of months for a perfect one, so be it....

Then they laugh all the way to the bank..

Open a demo and trade only those PBs they use see posted in this thread from time to time. In just one year.. you will not believe the balance on that demo..

Last edited by raczekfx, Jun 9, 2008 9:19am
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  #11139  
Old Jun 8, 2008 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baz View Post
Excellent trading thoughts,!!
Good stuff

baz
I'm glad you liked it. The higher tf you go, the easier it gets. Some 20-40 good trades per year can easily double your account, unless its size is worth billions... it becomes more difficult then. But then again if your account is worth 10mil and you make 30-40%/per year it may be more than enough for many..

p.s. I should also add that this thread:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6948

....by Diallist has been a great help to me some time ago. If you want to succeed in this business I recommend that you read posts 18-30. It is the second most valuable thread on the ff for me, right after this one.

Last edited by raczekfx, Jun 8, 2008 12:00pm
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  #11143  
Old Jun 8, 2008 5:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Hey Mark,
thanks for sharing that! Great stuff, truly appreciated!

RM
No problem RM

sarama001, have you taken advantage of gap on yen crosses?
I've closed half of my open shorts from friday at the open today. The remainder will be stopped out or trailed till 204 or perhaps 201
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  #11147  
Old Jun 8, 2008 9:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
He he,,
I think I know some of them...
Thanks for puting this out there as well as you have Rac.

People, read that post many times. It can be that simple & rewarding. My personal opinion is that it is harder for new people to wait, be patient, manage exits, & repeat. This will come with experience.
Thanks again for that great post Rac. I also think i know a few people who took the same trades
...
anytime Jeff.
yes, waiting for a perfect setup used to be a nightmare for me as well..
... and still is sometimes, hence R 1hr-db was born..
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  #11153  
Old Jun 9, 2008 9:15am
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Originally Posted by dpfuller View Post
Hey Rac,

great post, very enlightening, thanks for taking the time to share this. One quick question, when you refer to a retracement is this after the pb has broke or do you pre-empt a break and get in early after the pb forms with the risk the the pb never triggers?

thanks again

DP


..pre-empt the break.

Anything from 23-61f would do. I'll take breaks as well. What I do depends on how I view certain currency at the moment. e.g. cable last night.
I was watching charts and wanted to buy good size cable longs around 9670/80 with tp at 98. Why? Cable was bleeding badly last week after all that negative news, yet BoE left rate unchanged what in response changed short term trend. Why did they do that, what did they know, you and I didn't. Very simple they knew PPI number (released today) will be too high to cut rates. That's the reason I wanted to buy cable badly last night yet decided to set limit 40ps lower at 9640. Price never got there and it is toying with my tp right now. So, it's really up to you what you will do. Sometimes price never looks back and breaks higher.... IT IS OK to miss a trade.
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  #11157  
Old Jun 9, 2008 11:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatis View Post
Thanks Rac, I don't know if PB eye can be place for support.
Well...., I posted this chart in the private forum few days ago..
Have a look at those eyes surrounding PB and tell me if they can....?
.
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  #11188  
Old Jun 10, 2008 6:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader View Post
Perhaps this will be one of those Pin Bars that will have us laughing all the way to the bank !!! ( As Raczek said !!! ) Or was it James16...??
...
and some traders from PF are short right from 1.0315 ... using more 'advanced' technique.... (R-1d).. with 30pips stop...
.
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  #11204  
Old Jun 11, 2008 9:14am
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Originally Posted by y.caesar View Post
Hi everyone,

I just read the first 150 pages of the thread and still trying to finish reading all the pages here While doing so, I came accross a pinbar in usd/cad daily.
What's the best way of playing this?
a) set a sell stop 10 pips from the bottom of PB and s/l at the top of pb?
b) wait for a 38 retracement with a stop loss above the 61.8 retracement?

My question is, if I were to go with the "b" option, do i need to wait for a certain PA at the retracement or just place a market order at that retracement blindly?

Please let me know what you guys think. Thanks.

Regards,

y.caesar
As Mike has already mentioned, there is no definite answer. I recommend a) for new traders until they demo it and get good feel for price behavior on a given currency.
Personally I buy/sell initially around second eye or 23-61fib retracement with 2/3 of position (if it pb formed off good s/r area with confluence) and add another 1/3 on the break.
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  #11251  
Old Jun 13, 2008 4:24pm
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We've got nice Beovb on weekly and ppz around 1.5280 on daily..
How about a bounce to 5560...?

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  #11256  
Old Jun 13, 2008 8:36pm
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Default pin on cad

Quote:
Originally Posted by initex View Post
Hi, everybody!
Sorre for off topic, but I thought it wouldn't be much for a weekend to talk about something else, just not to analyze charts...

I'm quite new to forex - just more than half a year. I've started my journey with technical analysis basics - you know, indicators and stuff like that...

Then I thought to find something called EA to make money for me...silly boy. Maybe there is, but not for a newbie and for free.
Then I started to look for "systems", tried a couple on demo - like DM song - it's no good... Until I found system called "OZfx daily"

Sorry, I know, that he is banned now form FF and this is not a promotion of any kind for his stuff... The story goes on...

I've tried it and found, that in some cases there is possibility to earn some money. And the come James16 thread. I've read it, learned it and now I try to do trading "naked".

Now I thinking - what is the difference between such OZfx system and James lessons? Both are not perfect - you need to watch charts, indicators for some criteria to place trades, but there are not 100% guarantee.

I'm still in USD/CAD short based on Wednesdays PIN, so I'm not dead yet But it was so perfect PIN ( as for me), I can't believe it will not work out.

James, if you read this, please, do any comments...

Happy weekend!!!
hi initex..

Nothing is perfect in this world, but I can't remember last time I had a losing week using j16 PA. Trades yes, weeks no....
I have a little project in the pf called 'MI4' (mission impossible 4), where I post all my trades from one of my ultra small accounts created for this purpose at the end of each week. Started with... $4.84 and still alive after 8 weeks with almost 3,000% account gain....

Re: cad pin... I’m not going to explain in details here, since it’s beyond what we can talk about on the public forum, but James has made several excellent videos and live conference recordings (yes, they’re available only if you’re a member), which explain exactly how he trades and where he would take profit. I’d say that for those who follow his methods, this pin was profitable on partial position and the rest was stopped out at BE+ some….

You would have to excuse my ignorance, but I really don't know what ozfx is, nor I care to find out.... .

Enjoy your weekend and pips...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vensik View Post
I don't see where he told people they should subscribe or that Oz works better than this system. I wouldn't be too quick to throw him under the bus yet.
public 'j16 chart tread' is not a system. It's a method or a tool if you will, that can be used to better up your system. Although James described several systems, he uses and teaches on the private site, I don't recall it was ever mentioned here..
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  #11264  
Old Jun 15, 2008 8:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Raczekfx

Hi i appreciate tour posts ,they are most helpful,however i have a question regarding the trades you post in the PF. Do you also give details on the reasons why you place the trades?

Thanks and Regards

Gerard
Hi Gerard,

Only if I'm asked.. either directly or via pm. I'm basically following big footsteps of more successful and established traders. Explaining what I do and why upfront would be a repetition of what they've already said....
Cheers,
r.
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  #11267  
Old Jun 16, 2008 10:35am
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There is a reason why price was rejected at 1.5520 (i posted chart in pf). Let's see if we can get 4hr pb now.
I wasn't patient enough and closed my longs at 1.5460 (actually it was a TP hit in European session....
.
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  #11280  
Old Jun 18, 2008 2:35pm
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Smile Price Action anyone....?

I'm reading and reading different threads on FF and can't believe what some people do..

Some are saying, they used price action but it didn't work for them.
Others jump from system to system.... first they use j16setups, then they move to jacko, then they use jacko fiber method on different crosses, then they move to dibs, joe's surefire-tons of pips system, then hillary sure win....?

I don't know... but one thing is certain; humans tend to complicate their lives every day and when they see something simple that works, they get suspicious. How in a thousand years simple stuff could work?

I really don't know and don't care... I'm really happy that it does...
Many pips everyone.....

P.S. For those who know, there are plenty of R1-db setups on this chart below as well, but I won't even go there....
.
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  #11282  
Old Jun 18, 2008 3:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swingtrade65 View Post
Hey Raczekfx.....you are starting to sound like a TV preacher......are you passing the collection plate anytime soon???????


Just kidding dude.....many pips
Long time seeing you Bill..
You're right, I might stop preaching, after all... heaven is not for everyone...

Hope things are working out with your fund..

many pips..
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  #11291  
Old Jun 18, 2008 8:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clauticeo View Post
I like the USD/Swissy BEOB on daily (Flem has chart a few posts back). Aligns perfectly with what appears to be a nice double top. Could potentially be a pretty big move down from here.
and what started this move down....?
a pb off ppz...
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  #11292  
Old Jun 18, 2008 8:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
and what started this move down....?
a pb off ppz...
Let's see how much more room we have before things will start hitting on the breaks....
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  #11374  
Old Jun 26, 2008 6:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by creeper View Post
There is divergence, too. And it's pretty strong
.
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  #11391  
Old Jun 28, 2008 1:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
nice rac. you called that one like you had a crystal ball. mine showed the same thing.

".. it ain't rocket science, it ain't crystal balling... if you follow price action, it's damn easy and logical.. folks..."

....james16 once said in one of his videos...
.
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  #11396  
Old Jun 30, 2008 9:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steiniteer View Post
Hello,

Seeing PBs, DBhLC/DLBHCs and IBs across 4hr, 3hr & 1hr charts of d majors & most yen crosses.

Confirm, anyone?
i don't think you get many confirmations, as most successful pa traders here ignore the noise on lower TFs
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  #11398  
Old Jun 30, 2008 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Pssssst, raczek, don't jinx my 5m PB! ;P

(This should put SP in high alert as well! ;p)
... so sorry, SL ... how do I delete my posts...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188 View Post
Good looking pin by my standards, also in a great spot (swing high and off resistance).
Yes, it is...
.
p.s. chart from pf
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  #11400  
Old Jun 30, 2008 11:34am
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I've been doing very well with 50/61fib ret for some time now, but it took me a while to demo and fine-tune it.... and it is still discretionary..
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65 View Post
Hello James16 and all,

For some time, I have been thinking to reduce my risk using these two methods below, but I don't really know what the most efficient would be to apply on my 4 hours trading ?

1) A LIMIT order at the 50% or 61.8% of the set-up retracement with my stop loss 1/2 pips above/below the set-up ?

2) A STOP order at the breakout level with my STOP loss at 50% or 61.8% of the set-up retracement ?

Any thought on this would be welcome........

Thanks a lot

Happy trading

Angel65
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  #11403  
Old Jun 30, 2008 2:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65 View Post
Hello raczekfx,

Thanks for your reply.

Your way of adding position at retracement levels is very interesting but would you mind telling me where exactly do you place your stop loss ?

I'm going to try the first method by placing a LIMIT order at the 50% fibs retracement of a Pin Bar for example, with a stop loss 1/2 pips above/below the PB.

I don't want to be out too early using the method 2 by placing my stop loss at 61.8% PB retracement.

This way of trading fits me.

Best regards

Happy trading

Angel65
Initial stop is always above bar high of your entry, but how you play out the trade and move your stops, take partial or final profit, it's another story.

g/j trade.
We had daily beovb last week and everyone made few pips. What would happen to your account if you waited with additional entries at 50fib ret (as it is what you plan to do) and move your fib ratracement along the way....
You would still be in a trade with 2/3 positions now (depending on your experience and risk tolerance) and your final stop (you said 61fib) around 212.20. Or if you had your midterm final tp where mine was, you'd be out flat with around 550- 900 pips on two/three lots....
Well this goes beyond PA, we discuss here, so I'll shut up now..
.
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  #11404  
Old Jun 30, 2008 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
Well, got this pb at a pretty good price (at least at this juncture!) 167.950 last night
very nice, right on the second eye ret..
How are you planning to execute this trade in terms of TPs, and length you're going to keep it? Trades taken off of weekly charts take time to play out...
I'm asking since I've seen people taking trades on weekly and close it 10min later for 50pips..or so..
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  #11408  
Old Jun 30, 2008 4:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eltrot1979 View Post
Hi raczekfx, I was wondering what the price action for the sell trigger was in the chart (EURUSD chart) you posted? I gather price has reached some sort of level that you've marked on your chart, but how did you know it wasn't going to burst through the level on the next bar?

Cheers

Rob
My apologies Rob.. Dave, but I can't discuss it here in public. It's not based on PA, but it's the pf stuff...
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  #11425  
Old Jul 1, 2008 9:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Initial stop is always above bar high of your entry, but how you play out the trade and move your stops, take partial or final profit, it's another story.

g/j trade.
We had daily beovb last week and everyone made few pips. What would happen to your account if you waited with additional entries at 50fib ret (as it is what you plan to do) and move your fib ratracement along the way....
...
.
4th also worked... does it always? off course not...
.
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  #11431  
Old Jul 1, 2008 8:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65 View Post
Hello Raczekfx,

Yes it has been working well this time.......It's likely a 5 five waves Elliot sequence : isn't it ?
It could be, I don't know.. I like it simple and easy and don't subscribe to voodoo wave methods.

My core is ppz or s/r if you will,... and thanks to James for opening my eyes.
If you demo your trades around support/resistance for few months the lightbulbs should suddenly turn on and you will never look at any other system ever again. No ema crossovers, no dibs, no blackjack thingy.. . Charts will start talking to you, period.
It's sooooo.. simple, and this is exactly the reason why people don't see it. It's too simple for any engineers and phd to understand it until they become like a children again. Once they do, it's never gonna be the same..
happy trading to all.

R
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  #11453  
Old Jul 3, 2008 12:05pm
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cable..
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  #11454  
Old Jul 3, 2008 12:06pm
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fiber
.
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  #11457  
Old Jul 3, 2008 3:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
hey guyz i am on vacation and i am w0ndering how the eurjpy weekly pin and the usdchf daily pin few days back play 0ut
If anyone to0k those trades can u update me on them
..
.
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  #11470  
Old Jul 4, 2008 10:38am
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Default ECad

.
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  #11479  
Old Jul 5, 2008 10:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
The way things have been lately, that'll stop right at 5750.. which means the R:R on that trade is crazy horrible...
probably, and yes to RR, unless you're already in the trade. I'm actually expecting breakup in U/C with first target being 1.037 and then 1.08, but when fiber falls to 1.53 and beyond, it will most likely drag e/c along.

p.s. I heard your pipsociety is doing very well....

Last edited by raczekfx, Jul 5, 2008 11:00pm
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  #11495  
Old Jul 6, 2008 11:29pm
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If tp2 j11 gets broken, so will this trend.
..and trend following traders seem to lose more when IT changes...
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  #11497  
Old Jul 7, 2008 12:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey raczek, where's your wicks and "Opens" and "Closes"? Do you find this easier to read PA?
they're there. They disappeared when I zoomed out to show my ULT TP and AH entry..
Their presence really don't matter since I'm 'purple line' trader.
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Last edited by raczekfx, Jul 7, 2008 12:23am
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  #13801  
Old Sep 21, 2008 9:32pm
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Default Wk Buovb + div

Worth looking at?....
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  #13802  
Old Sep 21, 2008 9:34pm
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Default 3 very profitable PBs if you know what to do with them

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Worth looking at?....
dic.
I'm in this trade since pb #3. Took some off before close on Friday. Stop just below Fri bar low.
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  #13813  
Old Sep 22, 2008 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Good to see you Rac.
I have been playing all pins very short term lately, no matter what tf. so i'm out of that one. I just dont have the temperment to hold through the volatility currently. yes of course its because i risk more than is normal.
gotta keep paying the diesel bills for the yacht you know...
Diesel can be still expensive, but price got where we said it will go ($100) several weeks ago, contrary to all those 'analysts' predicting $200.. and PA tipped us off..
Pins has been great lately; we just need to be more picky in market conditions like we're in now..
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  #13828  
Old Sep 22, 2008 10:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXBat View Post
Hi raczek,
This was definitely a great trade on GY and still has a long way to go IMO. Would you care to tell me how did you know not to rush in with the first PB on Daily, but you entered only at the 3rd one?
thanx.
Cause it felt like catching a falling knife if I bought it before market close on Friday. There was no way of knowing how price would open on Sunday. It gaped right to a level were I'd start taking some profit (march 17 low). I thought about going short, but price collapsed before I could act. Second pin was perfect imho (we've just established lower band of a range), but I was going away for a couple of days and wouldn't be able to act accordingly. Third pin was just an and ice cream.....for every PA trader I know....
.. and that's the whole story.
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  #14059  
Old Sep 29, 2008 11:00pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
dic.
I'm in this trade since pb #3. Took some off before close on Friday. Stop just below Fri bar low.
another trade...
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  #14078  
Old Sep 30, 2008 10:37pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Ya back! ....Good to see ya man.
yea, might check in and out for the next few weeks. Lot's of time now.. winterized our glider....
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  #14211  
Old Oct 6, 2008 11:55am
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another trade...
closing half of this trade at 175.90 (around weekly ppz). No, it wasn't based on 5min....
golf time again...
p.s. Looking to close the rest around 165/168, or get stopped out. who cares now...

R.
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  #14213  
Old Oct 6, 2008 12:17pm
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My favorite and The most profitable setup is approaching.....(and final TA at the same time if you're cable short)
There is plenty of time if you know what you're doing, use proper MM and spend most of your time either soaring or on the golf course....(away from your comp). Right SL....?
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  #14254  
Old Oct 8, 2008 12:44pm
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Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
..
feel now would be a good time to mention that I agree with Igrok's view of 7500 and worse coming for the DJI.
Hehehe..
makes sense. this is where I might consider selling yen again....

Funny, when I look at indexes today and think of my banker, who laughed at my moves last year in august.
This is when I moved all my long term investments to mm and treasuries...
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  #14381  
Old Oct 13, 2008 6:04pm
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Smile ..said and done.. simple

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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
My favorite and The most profitable setup is approaching.....(and final TA at the same time if you're cable short)
...
Long since 1.6990 (50/61fib, confl, etc... and 50fib of daily pin retracement)
..
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  #14382  
Old Oct 13, 2008 6:08pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
closing half of this trade at 175.90 (around weekly ppz). No, it wasn't based on 5min....
golf time again...
p.s. Looking to close the rest around 165/168, or get stopped out. who cares now...

R.
Closed second half (168) and reversed to long today. 50 fib ret. of a daily pin.
It'd be nice to get out around 184 in the next few days, but I will probably let go half along the way
..
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  #14386  
Old Oct 13, 2008 11:12pm
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Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Great trade raczek! I was so hoping you would share your favorite PA set up.

Thank you

Best wishes,

Jason
no problem J.

You wait for such setups for a while, but when they come, you better be ready . Sometimes they only come once or twice every few months.
Practice and master them and you will never look below daily TF ever again. The Earth is too beautiful, life's too short to waste it in from of the computer...
Best,
R.
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  #14469  
Old Oct 15, 2008 9:49pm
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Originally Posted by FXBat View Post
sorry james i dont agree with you here. ...
different strokes for different people...but..

What Jim's trying to say here is that you don't let winners become losers.
You can move your stop to BE and get stopped out. That's not a loss.
You can take some profit once you're 75ps and move stop to BE on the rest. That's a winning trade.
What you don't do, is to watch your trade make you profit and then let it turn into a loss. That's not a business, that's gambling at its worst.
Some folks here trade with $1000/pip, so those 75ps can be two annual salaries for an average Joe and losing it....... you get my point....?
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  #14481  
Old Oct 16, 2008 12:19am
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Default reload after run up on retrace - small TF

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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Long since 1.6990 (50/61fib, confl, etc... and 50fib of daily pin retracement)
..
another example of the same methodology (more risky)on a smaller TF. This is just about as low as I get.
Retrace to mid 50/61fib and ppz confl, before reloading longs.
Waiting for PA confirmation is always safer though.
SL below 61fib (at the time of a trade), TP - bars low or another ppz (on the same TF)
..
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  #14489  
Old Oct 16, 2008 9:53am
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Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Nice setup Racz, you old scalper you! If that worked only 50% of the time you would be in the money big time. Thanks,

Jason
It works about 70% of the time if you know what you doing, instead of blindly playing retraces at fibs. You combine those setups with info from post #14469 and your odds increase to about 85%...
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  #14491  
Old Oct 16, 2008 10:04am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Raczek's the master of those plays. You can bet he did.
It's important for me to take some profit around 60-120ps on half pos. and move stop to BE or just below the resistance level on the rest. With GU, the sl on the other half is just below 1.7130

Trade Well!
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  #14674  
Old Oct 23, 2008 10:42pm
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NU....spring extending,.. exteeeending...
.
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  #14981  
Old Nov 4, 2008 8:59pm
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Aint' PF GOLD?
Hope you made a track load of money on that setup...

R
Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
I was looking at the GBPUSD last night while checking out racekfx's 1hr R-db thread on the J16 private forum and posted this to my journal over there......just drilling down to the 1hr looking for a possible trend reversal or entry point....no trade in place at the moment as I'm very wary about picking a bottom but very interesting nonetheless.

The chart grab was taken last night, my time and price has moved up a bit since then.

Price is retesting the 78.6% Fib from the move Northwards starting from May 2001...
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  #14983  
Old Nov 4, 2008 9:42pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Aint' PF GOLD?
Hope you made a track load of money on that setup...

R
..cont..
It was a dream R-db setup, off either 4hr or 1hr TF (with PPZ confl) and good for...... 1300ps. All the way to another 50/61fib () with ppz confl...
What else can you ask for? 2-3 setups like that per month will take you places.
.
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