Could you please ask him for his opinion though ??
Would he be more interested in a 6 pack of cola or apple juice ????
I can't get an opinion or anything from my 5 year old right now, cause she is cranky tonight for some reason... means I have no trade ideas for tonight either !!
He read your post and gave an answer in capitals already....
nuh, no 6 pack, no juice..no pop.... my kinds only drink water...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Tiki, You just made me think im the biggest idiot in the world. Why not buy oil on the next dip? I plan on it now. I live up north, I shouldh ave had that rationale for buying oil.
don't be to harsh on yourself.... pull the charts and check what oil did in the last 5 years .... october-january period......
..I dont think Ethanol is a good replacement for oil, and I think that because people stay in routine more often than not, they will stick with oil instead of going electric. ...
.
not ethanol... other technologies are already in use.. but it will be a while before 'regulars' are able use them...
oil 'cartels' have many interesting patents collecting dust ....
I hope that those high oil prices will speed up our tech. r/evolution..
Can you post a chart of monthlies ??? Danged if I can find one... I think this year may be different... this summer season did not go as usual where gas prices came down after summer driving season, instead they are now going up... they are going to get us in the winter this year !!! And an extra cold winter is predicted, which in itself helps oil prices go up...
I hope I'll see (as in be awake and at the screen for) 1.6490-1.6550.
You know what's funny? Looking at EURCHF I got pretty good confidence about what will likely happen there, looking at the DJI and S&P I get so scared..it's really odd - especially since they're basically making identical moves
Which way now, SL? .....
It looks that DOW could use that A/gravity device....
Interesting looking 4H sell pin on the EURCHF.
Could be price taking a breather after this big bullish day. Or it's getting ready to reverse.
I'm already long from the Daily pin so I think I'll weigh my options later.
I see a Price Pivot zone around 1.6530ish so we'll see what happens.
We've got SOME daily bar today...
Price will most likely continue in the same direction till 1.6560/1.66 before we see a pullback imo..
p.s. we are not far from weekly resistance though...
I'd rather see a merciless smashdown into the depths of hell *devil*
..
we have to have more patience....
dj is testing ppz again. It will be interesting to see what market will do next week if feds decide to cut rates by .50 again. Somehow, I don't think we'll shoot through the roof this time around if they cut....
Yea...but this EURGBP thing has been on since November, so I think someone was expecting a shift for a month now..and today/yesterday we just entered into the next impulse..and you can see the effects :P
So, about the fear, indices and panic stuff - is Asia gonna love or hate the JPY, any smart guesses by anyone? :P
I know what I'd like to see happen across the board..but whether St. Nikolaus (6th tomorrow) will put many pips in my shoe or not, that I don't know yet..
Hm. Well the DJI close is not gonna encourage JPY buying if this goes on
We'll have to wait and see.... it's only few hours away...
oil got cheaper today, dji i hovering around resistance.
my sell trigger is some 120ps higher from current price (13560/80)....I was hoping 300+ rally till midday and retrace, but it appears investors are betting on rate cuts and stock market recovery....:surprised
As we rapidly getting closer to Christmas, liquidity should dry out, so I expect wild swings....
Here is the way it looks like the daily is going to end with a double high lower close.....now with all the news about to come out this week do you just go ahead and put a sell stop at the bottom a little ways down and then where for a stop?
If I were not in the trade right now, I'd simply skip it, even though it will probably slide to 1.4520 area...
Good, short entries (imo ) were at 1.4705 and 1.4770
I just got back from logging over 100 hours on busses across SA. I think I have bricks in my pants. Rac, I am sure you are feeling similiar, US$400-mill getting reset to higher rates is a "no brainer" to me. The housing market has too much downward momentum to turn on any "hopefull" gov news. Anyway, I am not aware of any shovels big enough to dig out of this hole soon.
yup, unless there is another resolution prohibiting investors from selling stock below 14k,... I see only one way street for next few miles. Time will tell ... It seems lately, that everything is possible for Mr. B and CB...:surprised
I just learnt a VERY important lesson. Be aware of the news. I am almost certain that it was the interest rate statement that took me out of my AUDUSD and AUDJPY longs. I should not have entered one day before such an important news event. What I don't understand, however, is why USD gained strength after the interest rate cut. The way I understood interest rate cuts is that they weaken a currency because just holding the currency (without movements in the market) yields less interest and thus people don't look to buy after an interst rate cut. So, what am I missing.
*shit, two stupid losses that will make it harder to come out with a positive balance this month.
Chris
It was carry unwinding due to investors disappointment with smaller then expected cut. Look at the chart below.... Support at 1500 was blown away with ease.... That's why it's important to have your stops handy...
.
looking at that PB........the wick on the down side was almost as long as the wick on the upside, that out of the ordinary huge upward spike reminds me of something fti was speaking of in his thread on one of his posts about the ducks and the rubber band killings. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=92
some people look at it that way, but I don't see it on fiber monthly chart....
I like it simple... we might even get TBH on uj dailies; fib confluence, ppz...., ...., ... a touch of that area yesterday was a good target if we were long, and perhaps short opportunity. It retraced over 100ps before bouncing again..
Btw, finished reading the thread for the second time. Now up for a third time.
Chris
I could risk a lot to say that this is the only thread on the public forum and the net, you ever need to read and practice to be successful in trading,... but this is true.
hope you don't mind seeing few charts of mine from time to time, even though they're far from perfect PA setups.. I'm just filling in space till the time, Jim completes tasks associated with his new website and returns here with more insight on trading..
many pips.
Hey, Oanda, among others, is a very reliable and respected broker and you can trade any size you want. You're totally right that different feeds show different bars but that jim once said that results average out over the long run so you won't be at an disadvantage for using IBFX or something else.
To raczke: I don't mind you posting many charts at all. In fact, I like your charts very much because you almost always show clean and simple setups. After reading this thread for the second time, special thanks go to:
Jim, Mike, Seeking Light, Tiki, Wizard, razldazl, habeeb, raczkefx and some others I just forgot the names of at the moment.
Will it hit my target? Long from the TBH.
Chris
Even though it's a TBH break, I have ultimate TP set for 113.60. I can't see it go higher anytime soon.
BTW. I haven't gone long on a break of this PB. I mentioned in the chat last night, that it didn't feel right and we'll likely drop to 2.02 area..
eu
if momentum continues we'll probably see fiber visiting 4160-4200 next....
I'd love to see a nice daily pb off that area. From a fundamental view point I still think that another test of 1.48 is due sometimes in Jan.
We shall see. Enjoy the weekend and many pips....
Oh, you had already said what I just said... sorry !!! But do you really think we could go down that far, and then all the way back up to 1.4800 so quick ???
... If I knew for sure, I wouldn't waste any time posting on a public forum, would I..? I only trade probabilities...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiki Trader
Joacko must be super happy if he is thinking like you !!!
by now i know that james uses confluense, there is something more about pivot points wich is important to learn? i am reading all the thread. i still in post 1000.
i am interested especialy in raczekfx (i need to use copy and paste this nick) definition of "agressive ppz" that he uses in his profile
thanks all and sorry for my bad english.
it simply support/resistance area.
aggressive - means here, taking partial position at PPZ without waiting for PA confirmation. If proper pa develops then you just add to a full position, if price breaks support you're out for a loss on that partial pos..
but do you use only pivot points or others strong s%r?
and do you use autopivot to plot the pp lines?
i tried pp some time ago but it was a mess in MT4. But was not Autopivot. Maybe i will give a try using Autopivot.
thanks for reply.
no, I don't use mathematically calculated pivots or autopivots at all.
our ppz or price pivots if you will, are 'visual' areas of s/r, like in example below..
have a question on a setup that has not been adressed so far I believe - consecutive pinbars. How do you play them. Do you the signal is stronger after two pinbars or would you consider this setup invalid since the bar after the first pinbar couldn't break the low.
Chris
not sure if stronger, but if i took this trade I would keep in mind ppz around 1.4560. I would actually already had some short position after TL break on 4hr...
not sure if stronger, but if i took this trade I would keep in mind ppz around 1.4560. I would actually already had some short position after TL break on 4hr...
you also want to keep in mind monthly Buovb... (and a pin also..he,he)
if it breaks I'll be looking for max retrace to 1.42...
Note the only slightly skewed "leg parity" of the bar after the PB - almost identical length as the left bar before the PB - then the bar closes and a counter-reaction..
It's hard to always get 'leg parity' in futures....
4hr still shows nice uptrend...
I saw this too but not taking it due to the fundamentals of the market. Good to see some commodities charts Good luck.
Wiz
Fundamentals are important.. however I see it getting heavier every day...
it could be gathering more strength for another push higher, but I'm leaning towards the idea that we're heading down at least 60ps... will see.
this mt4 is of wich broker? there is not any pb in my mt4 form interbankfx
It?s NF, but it doesn't really matter what you use. You might get Beovb or something else..... What's important is to know where areas of s/r and confluence are and look for high probability trades.
This is another short trade I took last night and was really happy when I checked charts a couple of hours ago...
Initial entry was manual, aditional entry was pre-set order..
Before he answers... let me say my guess... break down below PPZ... retrace to resistance / ppz... SHORT... break down again... retrace to resistance / ppz... then add to SHORT...
E/J is getting tighter?. Which way is it going to break? Judging by the behavior of other jpy crosses, I?d risk and say we?d break lower ... in January.?.
wait. the first entry is possible to see the retrace. but the second you put the order when price was bellow the resistance (so the retrace happened in the same bar) or when price was above and then a breakout?
i will send a private message to you to ask something.
thanks and sorry for this terrible english.
second entry was actually a breakout trade. hope this chart below helps.
So now.... here is the next question from a dense guy... after retracing to a PPZ, how would you happen to know if price will make the next bounce... or will it continue in the retrace direction as a new trend/direction, or continue retracing still even to the next PPZ... ???..
That, I don't know... suppose I knew, I would never come to visit FF...
... but If you look at monthly, weekly and daily, you should kind of get the feel of direction... so unless proven wrong .... go with the flow...
... and if I asked myself too many 'ifs' questions, I'd probably never have guts to pull a trigger
break down below PPZ... retrace to resistance / ppz... SHORT... break down again... retrace to resistance / ppz...
This just has never really clicked with me.... until today...!!! A revalation...!!!!!!
...
Hey Tiki,
Sometimes when you wait for retracement it never happens and if it does, it might be a full blown reversal like with u/c few weeks ago. Anyways, a friend of mine collected several hundred pips on this move alone and is looking for about 80-100ps more.
Very well done..., this would be my wish for the New Year: a transition from 80-160ps scalps to catching the big ones....
Happy New 2008 everyone!
Great advice,
combined with pa & s/r it becomes much easier & less stessfull to pull in the big moves. You really only need a couple a week to be very profitable. the other bonus is you get to have a life.. May the light go on for all this year.
So rac.... will this have been your EUR rally that you were thinking was going to happen...?? Happened this year instead of 2008... if today ends as it is now... we have hit resistance above and now a BEOB for the day... and end of the year... yeah I know the day is not over... but price has now retrace to a PPZ and now bouncing down.... all just like magic... or was it ever magic...??? Just ding dong Tiki who couldn't figure it out...
Or now we are retracing down to the next PPZ around 4515... to make another push up... !!!
Yes, It has.......
Check my journal for more predictions...
many pips in 2008
Fundamentals are important.. however I see it getting heavier every day...
it could be gathering more strength for another push higher, but I'm leaning towards the idea that we're heading down at least 60ps... will see.
This was one good trade after all....
It even went some 14ps past 891 TP.
Well, the last 6 months whenever I was bullish JPY you were selling the crap out of it secretly while I wasn't looking, so I just assumed you'd do that again this time
A lot, a little, it's the thought that counts!
oh, I see...lol
not this time however, have you seen cliffhanger chart, Tiki posted?
It showed some support at 210 and then 202? I might reconsider at those levels....
..maybe write some 180-190 calls and start buying g/j at 202 when it gets there....
, so that is your secret to success drawing scary faces :
I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing faces... I didn't mention it on purpose..
Quote:
Originally Posted by razldazl
Hey Mike,
If you think thats scary, you should see his refrigerator! LOL...
... that one is one scary monster... . It's going out next week..., picked up the new one on boxing day... and kids won't have any access code to the kitchen...
First off let me say the worst thing you can do to your trading is use trailing stops. Yes, there are some fellas with a big following that advocate and love them(because it requires 0 thought), but I think that a fixed size trailing stop is rubbish. ...
:P
Yeah raczekfx has a way of doing those things...I emailed him yesterday to make sure he already had them short so he wouldn't mess up the 1500 pips in open profit I had in the crosses....I guess he just HAD TO DO IT.......
he, he.. you guys are too kind. As a matter of fact I did sell yen (bought jpy crosses) but only as of today.... Looking for another 100ps on u/j, e/j, g/j, c/j, a/j and maybe n/j from current levels.....
Anyone know why this PB fail?
I am down 152 pips right now (luckly this is only demo)
I see a resistance around 111.17, may be I should long after price broke that level.or what I am doing is right, I just don't have luck right now.
Trading yen can be very profitable but you need to be aware of what equities are doing...., (at least I watch them...)
In many instances when they dive south, yen will strengthen vice versa.
Charts below are one of the reason why your pin failed....
Hi All,
Just a thought about the pin bar failures.....in my opinion it had more to do with the fact that those pairs are in the middle of severe downtrends driven by much larger timeframes...go check the weekly and monthly charts....
I just prefer to trade in the direction of the prevailing major trend and then even if I make a mistake on an entry, I have a very good chance of the trend bailing out my dumb mistake etc
just my 2 pips
very true... monthly and weekly rules.....
I thought about what you have said in this post and couldn't agree more. I also found another very nice thread on FF, started by Kevin. Here are some thoughts on how your idea of letting profits run might benefit traders, who struggle.... And yes, I'm still working on sitting on my hands when I'm 80-100 ps in profit....
What he's trying to say is that the DJI and futures only had a miniscule inside bar that broke down today while the JPY all displayed big big pins...this was one of the main reasons I didn't trust any of this, alongside with some personal convictions about the state of "mind" the market is in and how the whole movement "feels".
I'm getting esoteric, so suffice to say it's all not easy, but it WILL come in time.(sounding a bit arrogant and know it all here and I definitely am still wrong an infinite amount of times...I just try not to be hurt by what I do when I am and take advantage of when I am right..that's really all there is to trading, is there not? Humility, where are you..)
Personally I am getting scared that I am starting to already forget the clueless panicky days slowly and how it felt and what the biggest problems were day to day for me..I need that memory for teaching..so I will have to hurry in addressing it ASAP.
I sure hope they never do return and that I am well underway by now..I can still feel the abyss close by..I wonder if it will go away eventually.
I still blame raczekfx, he's only posting the charts to distract from his JPY selling!
Exactly.. Thanks SL...
This is why I titled my yesterday's post 'short term scalps'...
Ok I'm still pretty new at this, but to me it seems like on weekly and monthly, CAD/JPY is in an uptrend not a downtrend like you guys are saying. That is why I didn't take the weekly pin ...
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
It is not that I am looking for you to do the thinking for me... I have thought about it... and I have a chart prepared to show how I think about it... I will happily post it to compare with whatever you say... so we can once again show off my ignorance !!! But that's fun for everyone anyways... I don't mind too much...
Hey Tiki,
You've asked a lot of good questions, unfortunately I only know the answer to a couple. Since I have no slightest idea what the market will do next, I try to trade best probabilities….
For me there are only three choices: trading breakouts, trading pullbacks to previous support after breakouts or pure PA with confluence. I can’t predict if price wont breakout another way or ignore BEOVB or TL or Fib, but for me those are probabilities with much better chances of success then chasing the markets or anything else….
You asked what now with Cad/Jpy, and again I have no idea but will observe what price will do short term…. If you really want prediction I'm looking for $$ picking up some strength next week (I shorted cable, fiber, au, nu after NONFarm) and I’m also looking for a good bounce on yen crosses starting on Monday . Oh, and yes I traded c\j short although I was late with my entries…
Hey Tiki, to answer your PM? this is not new?.
Retraces are great, but please note what happened after nonfarm!?
I haven?t seen such numbers for quite some time and would expect fiber and cable to rally hard. Instead we?ve got fake break out of 1.48 and priced closed pretty much where it opened on daily. $ also strengthen on other crosses. Such behavior makes me think the top has been placed (at least temporarily) for fiber. You might want to wait for some sort of PA confirmation now before deciding what?s to do next, but I?m a bit more aggressive and took initial position, I?ll add more on break lower. When you look at that cable chart, price is testing 1.97 for the fourth time? it could bounce, who knows, but I?m leaning toward a break low. When it breaks, next logical support will be around 1.94 and then 1.9160.. that?s how I see it.
Many pips
OK... but what is your stop on GBP ??? How many pips are you willing to lose...? What is the confirmation for you that your idea is working ?? What kind of close below 1.97 ??? We are already hitting Fridays low...
whats your thoughts on this one Racze,
You going to sell yen on the way up to 217 again or wait and play the break below support.
I'm not in this, wish, but I would like to see a bounce up, consolidate some more to get an entry.
Hang on your selling yen right now aren't you....
I am beginning to wonder if there really will be a retrace back to 218-220 area...
Back in Oct-Nov. 2007, I was chatting with a couple of my traders-friends and we discovered that we all sold equities and moved our money to bonds and cash at almost the same time......
They also mentioned, they wouldn't be surprised to see correction in Dow this year by 25-35%....
Well, if that happens we won't see 220 anytime soon...
If that counts :P
(journal excerpt from yesterday)
Of course it counts,... much more than that of jasdel's dude...
Actually I've seen a post in your journal on the very same topic an hour after I posted my chart here and was quite content. Glad we're on the same page..
Now, off to the bank to borrow more yen...
...1.48...1.47..1.46... 1.42... ..., ...
The day isn't over yet but looking at a DLHC on the daily chart. Looks like some resistance underneath. Any thoughts on this one if it closes this way?
I always look at xxx/chf crosses before trading yen.
Simply saying: xxx/chfs are leaders and xx/jpys are followers..
p.s. raczekfx on steroids..; i'm posting way too much lately... ok. I'll shut up now....
and what about this..
Racze you been selling yen again??
I knew i should have booked that 150 pips. Mark would have. now back to b/e. again......
I'll get one to take off eventually..
actually I was stopped out for a loss on yen crosses overnight...
this choppy market, we have for the last few days kills many trades unless you're scalping off 15min... (not a recommendation..)
At least my fiber's doing well, and I will buy more on pullback to 1.4750 area or on break out higher...
agreed,
It is even harder to hold long term when i see my profits keep getting eroded.
I'm holding my gj short though as I see at least a retest of lows.
Lowered my position but increased the size of stop. to try a be in on a run low which i think is coming. could be wrong of course.
from my limited experience I can say that in sideways moving market you stay out unless you're good on short TF. When the trend picks up again, you can start scaling in when opportunities present themselves.. and as Mike had said, best probabilities exist on retests of broken ppz ( so grandma can get in as SL put it..)
but as i know raczek is a pro and took this pin... and i think this was really a perfect pin... no?
hi giraia,
I am by no means a pro.... I'm just trying to do my best to put pieces of the puzzle together. I already had a position since 208.77 off 4hr TF (posted in attachment in peaks and valley thread) and simply added on a close after daily pb printed. To me it looked good, but it didn't work. When it met my SL, I simply reversed as per attached chart.... We're trading probabilities so I understand PB will fail from time to time even if majority traders will say it was a perfect one...., we just need to know where we need to admit, we're wrong and move on...
many pips to all..
Quick, let me put in some arrows in the USDJPY chart, say, 104? 103?
I need that to go down, too, get to work! :P *whhhksh!*
Wot a mess :P
Time for a weekend pizza here!
Have a good one everyone!
....hold your horses Seek... the weekend almost started... have some life.. price will get there sooner or later...
have a look at dj.... party should end around 12800/12900
....hold your horses Seek... the weekend almost started... have some life.. price will get there sooner or later...
have a look at dj.... party should end around 12800/12900
Since Jim just sent a mail around about it and the fact that it hasn't even been a week when we discussed this very thing, I felt this was worth showing everyone.
Just with the stuff we've got in this thread alone, together with some of the more in depth stuff we do on the site, you can go from feeling like a "sideway mess" to "love sideway trading" when looking at a chart.
Look. Boundaries, setups, ride to next boundary. Cash in, repeat.
What a great example of PA in action. We just discussed this very chart last Thursday and here it is all again, doing the same things over, and over, and over..
I will never forget how this thread has changed my perspective from just seeing forests of bars to actually seeing things happen on my charts..for me, this changed everything.
simple and beautiful, isn't it....? and no AH strategy required....
Daily pin on the pound/yen after it failed to take out 214. It might forming a bearish flag formation (I think that's what it's called anyways). Anyone else like this one? Anyways, hopefully we can ride this back down to 207-208.
Argh, I'm going to Japan in 3 weeks and the yen's soooo high right now. I'm going to be eating nothing but ramen soup for the next 3 months I guess!
yes, and a nice one off ppz. managed to catch it on 4hr at 213.46.... bernarke did the rest..
let's see if it breaks.
classic head and shoulders with a pin bar bouncing off of the neckline which happened to be SPOT ON the weekly R1 level. Does it get any better?
no, it doesn't...lol
This is the most conservative way for me..
I exited all yen and chfs positions when dow hit ppz at 12280
enjoy the weekend (long one for us here)
BTW. I used some of PA posted here to obtain these results in a short contest, using 'only' 18% margin.
What I'm trying to say is that PA and PF rules......
.
.
Last edited by raczekfx, Feb 15, 2008 11:32pm
Reason: wrong link
I would agree with the post that says read through the free material first. I have been with J16 for about 4 months, and it is certainly worth the time and money, ......
amen to that. I've been with J16 since Jan. 2006....
It's worth every penny...
Got a good boost to the account from the GBPCHF ppz setups for starters!
So here's a return present...
IB4 on Oil 4hr
yeah, I tend to do that when I have too much time on my hand.. (got a stop that)
you're kind of late with that oil tip, bro.., someone has already sold me one below...
Raczek will probably clarify his position, but the marked area was a Outside Bar (bullish) coming off a resistance/turned support zone. Pretty good setup.
On my charts it was a pin. (brokers on different time frames)
Also a good example of how price may only roughly respect lines at times. If you stick to using price action to confirm trades, that roughness don't matter.
Hope this helps.
Amen!
It?s basic j16 stuff and the most conservative imo. ? unfortunatelly this one was on demo only...
Hi, i can see this PA but i am trying to understad how did you trade it...?
did you made buy with the breakout of the outside bar or from his bottom ?
where did you place your stop?
as i know you should trade it with breakout of the outside bar....your purple line is in the bottom did you bought thier? if yes please explain....(may be i am wrong)
Thanks
Shay
it's a simple trade taken after retest of a breakout area.. If pa develops after you take a trade, that's great.. you can scale in again and again..
sl was few ps below previous bars low (feb 11)..
below is another example of similar trade...
I know, some of the FF ?newsmans? discussed quick resurrection of carries and equities, but after listening to mr. b talk today and paulsons bailout objections.. I?m not so sure ..
Whatever? , Price broke daily TL and is currently sitting on ppz. Can we get down to 206 ... daily pa could suggest that. Let?s watch and see .
Hi,
I'm a major lurker here and love the thread.
Was a member of PF at the start but had to leave for other reasons.
Am studying hard now and just wanted some advice from you experts on this demo trade I'm currently in.
The questions is, where would you put your SL?
I know everyone might have a different view, but the views would be nice to hear.
I've previously put the SL above each retracement (marked on chart)
You will see my TP1, TP2, TP3 etc and I've now hit the next TP level.
I have other TP levels at/around 205.80 and again at 204.60/204.90
Would you set you SL to previous TP levels to lock in profit?
Cheers for any advice.
Colin.
I'm no expert, but I took g/j based on daily BEOV and at the same time shorted e/j, a/j, n/j and c/j. I would take some profit now and place my stops just above TP3 on your chart
Took this long pin bar trade , but got stopped out.
Looked good to me since it seemed to be holding support at trend line that I drew and also along the moving averages .
Longer term was up . Thats why i thought it was a good trade.intermediate trend was down.
Could someone please help me understand why i shouldn't have taken this trade ?
Thanks
have a good day
well, my tl looks a bit different than yours... but regardless of how we draw it. It is always worth while looking at higher TF before pulling the trigger.
you took that pin on bearish daily bar after tl gave up. As Bundy said, not all pin works... You're probably only a technical trader and thats fine, but listening to what's happening in the kitchen helps sometimes...
I couldn't believe my ears when I heard mr. b saying that 'some banks will probably go under given current circumstances'... it was like Christmas present in February.... I had no choice but to sell house of yen crosses. Swissy crosses were hinting everyone for the last 3 days. Their PA simply gave feds away... i never go xx.jpy long when xxx/chf falls, but that's just me... good weekend everyone..
check out PA on gold and oil... this isn't just a profit taking...
are we going to get stronger $ in days to come, central bankers intervention?
...perhaps.. let's see...
I'm sure those, who know will make a killing... follow the big footsteps
Feb. 26 Breakout, pullback to 9720 (and TP if you're short), and lift off...... to another TP (ppz)
Mike's got to love it....
Do we get another break out?... I wouldn't bet on it until we see what bank of england will have to say tomorrow.
Personally, I wouldn't mind to see daily pb tomorrow, off 2.0020....will see
i have buy post at 1.9813, 1.9840,19872 and 1.9919.... should i let it run ?
... lol... I don't know. I would certainly take some profit around 9940/60 and move my stops as this is resistance area.. . But then again, It's just me, and I'm not trading forex for fun or treat it as some sort of video game. For me, this is serious business, where you can improve the way you live and make serious money. That's all.
Trading doesn't have to be difficult. (hint: chart below)
many pips.
Best NFP ever, I think I'm dreaming...lol. $$ gets a boost from bad data, yen weakens, swissy weakens.... It almost looks like conspiracy theory...
Let's harvest those pips.....
p.s. some say pa from nf continues on following monday, so judge your risk accordingly. Have a fabulous weekend everyone..
uj tested a STRONG long term support. I think it will go up a lot in the next days
regards
agreed, if dollar strengthens, yen will weaken quickly..
If that's the case, I'm looking for a test of 105.50 next week or so...
anyone remembers Nov7/07 and usd/cad...
big leverage, rush and greed will put you crying in a fetal position one day... It's not a pleasant experience. Slow and steady, and capital preservation will do miracles to your account over time....
i know it...but it was mistake i forgot to change the leverage...it start with big leverage...and i did not changed it...this mistake cost me alot of money...
sorry to hear that shayb. Forex in NOT a video game... there are big sharks out there everywhere feeding on mistakes like that. Treat this as a business with strict rules and you'll never forget. You probably saw the move south and wanted to jump in 'pronto'.... a big no no... . Market will be here long after we bite the dust, so don't rush. Once you're realize it that there is another setup coming, you should not regret missed opportunities. There are plenty more to come.
many pips..
I was a huge TLs fan back a couple of years ago.... (You can ask Seeking Light of zoopy if you care), and did quite ok trading them... but mine looks a bit different...
probably..
when the street starts talking about.." Collective Interventions by Central Banks" you better tighten your stops... . And when it's a better time to intervene than now?
I'm telling you.... when your house keeper going $ short and talking about $$$ demise, you can almost be sure the TOP is near..
good weekend to all.
.
Nice.. just closed all my positions: yen longs and $ shorts about half an hour ago. I never expected such a gift from feds on Sunday. I think, it's time to take few weeks of vacation now . Next couple weeks should be very volatile and I wouldn't be surprised to see yen weaken several hundred pips in just few short hours if we get boj step up to the plate...
Quite frankly I am wondering whether it's time for the buck to get some payback in now...have a feeling 1.6 won't be the next roundish number we hit on EURUSD,
my feeling exactly...
Perfect time for coordinated intervention would be tomorrow @ 14:15 est.
Good luck with that trade Tyler.., not sure why you did (), but..
Just by looking at this daily bar, I'd........ and then....
There is a reason why aussie is getting hammered today...
There is also plenty of good trades out there, guys. Don't push it.. If you missed it. There will be more. You rush it... and will end up wiring more money to your accounts sooner or later....
Just a small question about the latest BEOB in GU. Is there any reason you think this time, BEOB 2, will work better than BEOB 1?
Neither BEOB seems to really react from a strong ppz, although maybe the ppz at 1.9935-70 was close enough and became support to cause a failure of BEOB 1, whereas this ppz is further away from BEOB 2?
BEOB 2 does have a greater range relative to it's prior bar than BEOB 1, and maybe this adds more potency to the probable success of BEOB 2??
Or do you think they are equally valid?
Hi Ciceroni,
Sorry for late reply by I was busy with yen...
I don't really spend too much time contemplating which beovb will work stronger as I'm usually in the trade a day before they form since I'm PPZ/confluence trader. First one was taken off of 50fib and ppz, second off 61fib/ppz. Price stopped around 9940, which was another good PPZ and area to watch for a strong bounce given the fact that feds are about to lower rates by 100points today. I expected price to slow down here/stop or reverse or perhaps go test another pivot around 9750, which was also a 61fib (Jan 22/March 14 swing)
I think you've got fib wrong tyler..., but yes, 9740 was excellent tp and reverse area with multi confluence present.. . Let's see how will that pb play out.
Fresh jiuce everyday if you can. The whole family in one hit.
Carrot apple base then go veg, greens, beets whatever you like or go full friut
ginger for those who will.
Colloidal silver for bacterial infections, digestive esp, also great for tooth abcesses and the like.
Bitter herbs if a cold or flu wont shift. boneset/yarrow
Elderflower if its light.
All the best
SS
A couple drops of THIS per glass of water/day and you will never know what flue feels like. My entire family has been using it for last few years with great results. You can even buy it at Walmart for $20, I think...
what do you guys think about this daily pin? I think it worth taking it.
A nice one; off PPZ/TL/61fib confluence
Let's see how it plays out. I added few areas for you to watch, if you take it.
.
ps. No definite PA on fiber to indicate short, but watch it very, very closely (good r/r???.....
we had a nice fall as we all expected. price is stalling around 1.9950 as you indicated on your chart.
I took partial profit. hope continuing its way down.
9950 was where I took 1/3 off the market and moved sl to be
I started reading thread now at page 208. a long way to go. it will take 2-3 months to finish reading and practicing. after that I would like to join PF as well. really waiting for that.
I read it several times, but from 2nd time onwards, I had a filter on...
Only read those by James16 and mbqb11 ...
Or give up fighting strong trends and enter PA trades only with the trend. It is the only thing that i really disagree with what Jim teaches and that is the trend is at the top of my check list and not in the middle somewhere. Just my opinion.
You see, It all depends on your trading style. I’m a price pivot trader, so when that pin broke south, I was already some 140ps in profit. Unfortunetly my ego kicked in, looking for exit at 0.76 and refused to take some profit. Trading with a trend has adventages, no question, but a setup is a setup… And that was one hell of a pin imho. There is no sure thing in trading, we’re trading odds, so picking the best of them will let you enjoy this business a little longer. .
Onto the next one...Let's enjoy free fall on fiber over the next few days..
... cause you never, ever let your winner become a loser!!!
It was just a few pip loss, but when you think about the amount of pips allowed to let go, it's just not acceptable. One day, we get to trade 10 lot (and more)/trade and this is .... #@#@$.
check out the open and close on cable's monthly bars highlighted... very interesting.. . We should get one more bar like that before significant drop lower.
When u see the 2 pins and a inverted pb from last month, what do you "see" in terms of price action. How do u make use of that info on the charts to help in your trading decision?
I too was looking at it for some time but all i know of is to use it to enter trades in that direction (e.g. a bullish PB means i have full lots on long). But is a little caution now as it seems to me that the market for cable is a little directionless but with a bias on short side now.
Thanks
Let's start with 2 PBs that broke out higher. If you're conservative trader you go long at 1.9970 and If you're like me, you look for the next ppz with some kind of confluence to exit. In attached example the move was good for 300+ pips.
Let's start with 2 PBs that broke out higher. If you're conservative trader you go long at 1.9970 and If you're like me, you look for the next ppz with some kind of confluence to exit. In attached example the move was good for 300+ pips.
We now have another monthly pin and conservative short entry would be around 1.97 with possibility to go down to 1.90 if US were to stop its cycle of lowering rates, and GB and Europe started cutting. Monthly is very long TF and not my favorite so I always look for opportunities on weekly and daily TFs. If you look on weekly, you'll see weekly PPZ around 1.97, and I would say that area would give you some hard time if you're anticipating short trade. From a daily TF you should still be short if you took a daily PB around 2.0.
I only look at monthly to get the bigger picture and since it appears that cable reversed its uptrend, I will trade accordingly. Contrary to what Kate and Boris are saying, I tend to see stronger $$ in months to come. Canada?s economy is very good yet they?ve already announced easing cycle. I know that Canadian economy is very close related to US, but I?d be seriously surprised if Europe, Australia and New Zealand continued their tightening policy.
From the past I noticed that it take a bit longer to turn around European titanic, but it will eventually happen. The most money is being lost when ship is turning around. Let's see.
Happy trading.
same with me (roughly). learning quickly from you, rac!
RM
I'm very glad you're doing well... RM.
As much as I love B/S on ppz touches they eventually break. We've had a good run for the last three days. Cable usually reverse after 4/5 days of losses so let's see if get to 1.9640 by tomorrow morning. PPZ at 97xx is significant imo and if it goes we might see a drop of couple hundred pips... But this is prediction and predictions have no place in this business, so let's stick to PA....
ps. as for the euro I wish it bounces to 57 so I get a chance to reload, but I'm not as optimistic as MPP from jacko's thread..
I'm watching this like an eagle..... My bet is 204.50 high before..@#@#@. Same applies to other yen crosses.
Let's get some PA here..
Equities are approaching very solid ppz with confluence. If it breaks you'll see yen crosses shoot up much, much higher. I'll be looking for reversal in equities some 100-200ps from current level and hopefully it'll get some pa to buy yen (sell crosses).
It's great, people find information useful in this thread..
Price went exactly when expected. For some, 5500/20 could've been a perfect TP and reverse area. Now we get confirming PA.
Will it work out?.. time will tell. See you tomorrow after NFP....
P.A.
Notes for myself..
Be careful. Such big volatility could be associated with trend change in eur/usd. jacko turtles be careful
Pin broke and price is currently sitting on short term ppz.
If this is what zoopy and I were anticipating since Friday's NFP, things might get ugly for fiber longs... Let's see what euro session will bring...
but my view would be that this would normally be bearish - how far?
my problem is that the daily chart has been following along a nice TL, which currently sits around 1.566x and has held up well, also support is in the same arena, so do we look to the weekly or 4h charts, each again tells a different tale, the 4h has 2 bullish inside candles but the weekly also has a bullish tone to it as it failed to break support but the candle closed lower - bearish.
Maybe i'm just to much of a bull on EU, i know i have much to learn and felt that someone should try to answer this - if only to get a good talking too.
I’m a bear right now and looking forward to test that TL you mentioned (around 1.5530) and its break lower eventually, to test price pivot near 1.5000. I might be terribly wrong and that’s why stop is in place, but because of G7 approaching and ECB rate announcement on Thursday, I don’t know of many bulls who are willing push it higher in the next 48 hours. Last night we had an attempt that failed … I'd love to see another one but doubt it. We shall see. Let's PA unfold...
P.S. what I also like, is yen getting weaker again and that's been a sign of a stronger $ for me in the past.
1/3 off the table (120), rest at BE+2, hopefully we get tl break soon.
thanks Seek... don't you think it's kind of crazy to see those 200ps daily ranges on euro.. ? It's not a complain though..
I'd love to see retrace to 5800/20 again to confirm my train of thoughts... we'll see. To be completely honest I felt confident with this short by observing PA on gold and oil after mr. stubborn-trichet speech... plus all the stop orders buildup from jacko's turtles... It was worth giving a try...
hope you did well.
what do you think about all the PBs on yen crosses today? Are they good setups? My fear is that this was an artificial move and tomorrow the market will resume its normal trend, which is down.
It’s hard to tell. it all depends on how equities and dollar behave. If dollar strengthens more, carry trades should resume their march higher. There is constant struggle between PPTeam and sellers in equities in the last few days. If dow loses 12,450 support, I’d think yen crosses will suffer. Just watch the $$$ and dow. We could be witnessing trend change on fiber today although it’s much too early to be sure, but if that happens, carries will get the green light imho. I'm moving my eu sl to 5830 (above 50fib) just in case..
many pips
I noticed some folks from other threads were eager to jump long on gj after daily pb formed.
There is nothing wrong with that, as long as you know what's ahead of you. Always check where is the next ppz.
There is a good reason why that pin ended where it ended....
When I closed short xx/jpy trades early moning and thought of reversing (never did), that area would be my TP
edit:
I went long g/j (just before 8pm est) @ 200.60 with 30ps stop.
.
Last edited by raczekfx, Apr 10, 2008 8:18pm
Reason: added long xxx/jpys
ohhh u, big shark!! Dont u get tired of being rigth so often?????
Great call Rac!!
Have a good weekend people!!
Matt
not so big.. , unless you're referring to e/u
as you know from our chat last night, I was stopped out above 201 by my 15ps () trailing stop.... Since it's not PA based, we'll not talk about it here. if equities keep falling like this, I would not be surprised to see a gap on Sunday (196/7)
have a good one yourself Matt
p.s.
as for the yen crosses fall... thank the dow. remember my chart from last night...?
raczekfx, do you trade the Dow, or do you just watch it to get a hint of where the USD pairs could be heading?
no dow trading... yet
Quote:
Originally Posted by sarama001
Raczekfx, please clear your PM box. It is full.
will do on the weekend sarama
Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br
rac, why you took the short exactly at 1.5870?
another think: what was your final result in the Fxsol championship? i read only one message about it but i am not reading the thread all days.
thanks in advance.
that's the price fill I got. it was more of going short while observing how price was reacting to ECB news than PA setup, but it coincides on 1hr pb close...
10,000 posts.... Not bad at all...Congrats Jim and everyone..
..
Well GBPJPY is still suffering..here, let me post some funky geometry
This is how bad it gets when I don't stop drawing ;p
I keep on seeing new stuff to put in, especially on 1h..(even just now after posting, on the top right - there's a support -> resistance flip I didn't draw in!)
This declining TL is pretty much mirrored on GBPUSD..question is to which side we'll break, no?
I for one quite frankly do not side with the "the bottom is in" believers in regards to carry and S&P/DJI...I think we still have to get that one big wakeup call move(whenever, but we DO need to see it imho).
I'm not Picasso either..
Since we haven't recorded lower low today and Dow hasn't scared me much either, I'm seeing ########## on g/j.
We'll see....
One thing is certain; It will break out in the next few days.
p.s.
you know my yen trading is tied to chfs... ;-)
.
fiber in its final day before the breakout...??? (up/down - matters not)
My sell limit order set last night (5896) was missed by few pips. I was looking for a fake break out to 5920/40 and day ending with a 100p-nose PB.
Well, it appears we'll get an IB instead. I'm still favoring sharp move down, but since it's mostly 'crystal balling' and gut feeling... we don't discuss it here....
.
.
Why do you anticipate a breakout? Is it mainly due to the number of IB's that you have highlighted, the ranginess of the Euro lately or instinct?. Or perhaps combination of all three?
a combination of them all.... lol
but on a serious note. have a look at this chart.
Ranges are getting smaller and euro is getting compressed.
What happens if you compress a balloon too much?
Before someone yells at me, I did not mean to say that profiting in forex is easy. But when someone makes more winning trades than losing ones, and only takes trades with good r:r and implements strict mm rules, he will profit.
Tyler
even if your win ratio is only 38%, you can be very successful in this business.
raczekfx, why do you favour a sharp move down, and not up on the fiber?
How can one be be very successful with a win ratio of 38%?.
Gerard
On euro behavior vs oil yesterday…. So much for that theory right now; Bat bailed me out and reversed positions at 5855. Seeking, already answered your second question.
Yup, I'm with you, raczekfx!! This stuff just works!
Hello Baddison...
Isn't j16 pivot cool?
Price is about to test it for the 4th time on dow futures..
Let's see if it breaks it this time. My yen and chfs depend on it....
Can you explain me why did you take this one (and G/Y too)? There was a pin bar but it was in traffic. I see that the price is bounced off of the s/r. was it the only reason for going long?
I am referring to post 10135 and 10136
That's pretty much it, mihali. My trading style is not conservative and I trade bounces/touches off of S/R areas. If I am right PA usually forms on the same day or the day after. I might add more at that time. If I'm wrong.. that's where hard stops come into play.
p.s. i don't recommend this style of trading. in the first several pages of this trade you'll find everything you need to be successful trader after some practice. (..forgot to add, psychology is a major factor here... )
Why did not you not take the previous Thursday pin? Still establishing resistance?
I wasn't paying attention at a time, I think. Or, it could've been, I thought long entry at a time would be like catching a falling knife... You don't have to take all the trades and hope for the best. Trading aggressively exposes you to a much greater risk so you have to be really picky. If in doubt even for one second... stay out!
Quote:
Originally Posted by wave catcher
hey rac,
how do you determine that it is indeed a bounce off the S/R area initially (lower timeframe possibly)?
thanks,
wc
Sorry guys, we're getting off topic here by discussing individual trading styles. Let's talk PA again. So let's assume that the pair bounces off the low pivot and forms PA setup, a pin bar, IB or Beovb. If price breaks that setup to the upside, we can tell the bounce was successful and we're in a trade with good probability of making some money.
Just a question, did anyone play that I4B on Tuesday for GBPJPY?
It worked out ok.
200 pip risk and now it's up over 700. Not bad.....
(I missed out on that BTW... )
Are you going for bearish g/u with your charts? I see the monthly pin, but I think it looks more indecisive than bearish (2 monthly bullish pins followed by a bearish pin followed by the current month bar which appears to me to be indecisive). The daily bar is definitely bearish, but the weekly (not shown in your chart set) shows a BUOVB from last week which says bullish. I'd say g/u is indecisive, but I'd like to hear your opinion. I know that the charts should tell me everything, but I'm not there yet and I would appreciate any comments you have.
Thanks,
Brian
If I were to trade daily Beob, I'd wait for retracement to about 1.9880/1.9920 before going short. As you already said, we have a Buovb on weekly and price already bounced off of 61 fib. I prefer to see these kind of bars at swing high/low (just like pbs) though. Since I don't know what will happen next, I stay aside. My bias is neutral, however if we see oil loosing ground I will turn US bull.
I knew you are very popular, a lot of people mentioned you are great pro. so, if there be opportunity could learn from you , that will be very nice. not for sure if could have your reply, in any case, my curiosity drives me to ask this question, hope you don't mind to answer.
for the monthly view of GBPUSD, if doing an addition for the three, or probably four Pin Bars, would you consider them as a doji as a whole( I assume you knew what is doji,sorry, for this stupid assumption,surely, you knew what is doji)?
if any other people have different view about this, please welcome to comment. for me, some times, PA + PPZ + Fib works good, but, the other time, not workable, not for sure what could be the problem when I analyze the market using this strategy. I guess there probably be other factors which need to be taken into account when identifying a quality PPZ.
Thanks, but I'm not a pro... Forex is a hobby of mine like many others. It can be expensive, other times might be rewarding. The problem with PA/ppz/fib is that they fail from time to time, just like any other methods or systems. There is no easy way to tell what's gonna happen next, that's why you NEED good MM and pick only the best probabilities. If I can have my 5 min. here, I'd say they work best when trading only in a direction of a major trend and supported by some fundies. I don't give a damn about fundies except for one thing. I need to know, who's raising interest rates and who's lowering them and when the cycle is changing. When feds stop and eurobank will start cutting you can be certain the titanic will turn its course and you can use that info to look for the best pa/ppz and fib or whatever else you use to look for short setups. There is a lot of hype and lies out there, so you need to learn not to trust anyone, but simply rely on your experience and trade best probabilities as I already mentioned. Oil is hitting all time high not because of fundies or supply and demand. You can hear bodman and bush feeding you with b.s that supply and demand driving its price trough the roof, but when you look the weekly numbers, you can see oil reserves going up every week. So what's happening.... ? We don't care, we're traders and follow the price to get some results.... lol.
ok. going back to your question about monthly gu. Since this is a fourth month where open and close appear to be at almost the same level, we're looking at equal strength of bulls and bears. Personally I don't see cable breaking that monthly pb (march) any time soon and if $ were given opportunity to gain strength, I would not be surprised to see.... 1.91 in months to come....
cheers,
Would anyone happen to have a trade log to calculate the units (in Oanda) based on the specific pair and the stop size (risk)??? I would like to risk a set amount on each trade, so the unit size will vary with the size of the stop. I trade in Oanda, and this would be a handy tool. You can enter a percentage in Oanda, but it deals more with Margins as opposed to risk.
If it breaks, this might create many, strong break outs opportunities on cad, chfs, jpys, xxx/usd. just to name a few. They might be several hundreds pips opportunities coming your way in a very short period of time.
I have uj at 108 and u/c at 106, fiber 1.54? (don't laugh ) on my radar screens.
As always, control your risk and use PA for clues..
.
ok. I used up my post limit for this week.
Don't want to get off track in the thread, but did you take that nzd/usd trade based on what you saw going on with gold at the time? I know there was ppz there and some possible resistance from the fibs, but I was just wondering where you got your confirmation from to go ahead with the trade.
Thanks,
wc
Hey wc,
No, it wasn't gold. I don't look at gold too often. It was based on everything I normally do plus psychological effect on Kiwi when rates will remain unchanged. I placed my bets that lot of traders will be disappointed and worry about bank of NZ start cutting later this year. You know the rest from the chart.
Trading psychology plays a major role in my trading... and unlike others I KNOW it's not b.s...
I'm taking the Nzd/Jpy one, waiting for it to come down a bit more
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
I love being in good company.
... You guys are joking, right?
This is not even close to C trade. Unless you're scalping 10 pips, going against that weekly BEB makes no sense, at least to me. Before going down to 4hr make sure you're profitable on daily and weekly for at least several months. If you're not, there are plenty of others who will be happy to take money away from you.. on 4hr......
p.s. market will be here tomorrow. have patience and your account will grow faster than you think...
I have to admit, I took the gj pin. It actually looked good to me on Alpari. But....I learned that it is safer to let price come to you nice and softly in its own natural market breathing, not when it is hyperventilating. Its easier to pick cherries when they are motionless on the branch then to run around and catch them when falling.
... Originally posted in the PF on May 5th.....
have a good weekend everyone!
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Looking for g/j to slow down around 205.60/80 (if we don't break 209) and retest 203.... and with a bit of luck maybe 201..
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
So far so good. G/j slowed down at 205.50 or bounced off it and is now testing 203. Will it break daily ppz and says hello 201....
Perhaps this will help some of you believe in PA....
This is one of my demo accounts, where I trade based on material from james16 chart thread, j16website plus some common sense. This is high risk/high reward system, which includes taking trades on touches of ppz, fibs, pins, emas... etc..
... some 45000+ pips since mid January...
It is possible!!! Learn the material, practice, visualize your goals.. and you ARE successful..
ps what is your commission for trading other peoples accounts
Believe in one's skills to pick the best probability trades and manage them properly.
LoL.... I don't trade (nor I want to) other peoples accounts. Trading is a hobby of mine... just like flying, fishing and time travel..
I notice in your profile your trading experience is 5 years, may I know how many years I have to learn to master this stuff? let say average people.
BTW how many pairs do you trade?
Hi Jatis,
I can't really tell you how long it's gonna take you. Some people get good at it after several months, some will take years. Others will spend entire life trying to get this work... . It's a personal thing, but seeing you in this thread, I can tell, you’re on the right track. I'd say your chances are much better than others, who jump from thread to thread, from system to system..
Anyone's thoughts on a close of this if it stays like this? It's spelling out with confluence for me and so I plan on trading it. It looks solid unless I am missing something, which I honestly don't think I am.
Nice pin off 61 fib. If I shorted it, I'd have tight stop....
Here is another view. I took some of these longs off ppz....
I love this chart.... PPZ or S/R trading is very powerful addition to PA. I've been using this daily dow futures chart since the beginning of the year for all my yen needs..
EURUSD. BEOB at the same resistance former PB formed. First on 4h, then on daily. Once that closed, long pin bar on mini-PPZ to initiate the retrace up to the .618. Hit it to the pip along with several short orders(now who would do such a thing!) and dropped like a stone.
We're ending this week with a nice, FAT TBHLC or if you look closely, we can say it's Beovb (by 4ps on my charts). Are we going to 1.4950 area next? In my mind there is no doubt and with a burst of oil bubble coming, we shall see it rather sooner than later... until then... have a great weekend folks.
trade responsibly!
I guess this is just one of those that don't work out, despite looking like a good setup.
Any comments on this? Did anyone else take it ? Why yes or why wouldn't you ?
when in doubt, always check larger TF.
Taking 4hr pb with 25ps nose after daily BEB is kind of suicidal.. imho.
It was also in the middle of my established zone. I could consider taking it only if it formed off blue zone.
Good place to short USD-CAD? PPZ 1.0000 should play as strong resistance.
Any other idea?
If it closes above your top red line it will act as a resistance and good place to go long after retrace given proper PA
.
p.s. some of us actually went long when DB formed on 4hr with small stop
that is a hell of a trade mark , i got in a small cad breakout way later today
I see, we evolved into 2 PA groups....
Breakers and touchers....
First being more mature and patient, second... cries often..., but if they're right........ :-)
LOL mark, you mean you are crying all the way to the bank on trades like this.
lol.. no, what I meant is being stopped out 6-7 times in a row for 20-30ps before you get one 200ps homer. That's the price of touch trading. DB sure helps a lot if you spot them at the right time....
Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br
after the bar that made the second touch? or where?
Rac, what is difficult to me is understand the price action used in that trade. Price never came back to 9817 (to put a buy limit on the second touch) . I can't see any price action on 15m, 1h, 4h. Maybe it was the close of the 4h bar but it was a DBHLC.
sorry if this is a stupid question, but i can't see the price action.
thanks in advance.
because there is no pa.
I use aggressive trading technique from time to time (to complement PA to come) once I made up my mind re: trade direction. I called it R-1hr db in the PF. It is however beyond the scope of this thread and not suitable for everyone, therefore you'd have to excuse me for not going into details here.
In regards to todays euro.
This is the way i am looking at it
Yes If you look at the beob previiously it could be taken. but when you look at the surroundings it starts to look not so good.
1. its at a low or sideways mkt... its better as a reversal bar..
2. its right up on support which needs to break first. not by 5 pips but by 30-60 pips. to be convincing followed by retrace then continue down.
To disclose. I didnt take the long or short.. It was too undecided for me.
but others i know took the long this morning off the low on the euro & the pound.
I took the short on the swissy.
This is just my pespective.
Jeff
.. all that hard work in the PF makes magic come true....
Didn't it look like a tipple top on swissy...?
I will like to interject my opinion once again.... haven't done it lately....
My principle attraction to J16 in the beginning was...... YES !!! Pin Bars.... why.. I actually thought... wow... so easy... gonna be a Pin Bar trader... just like Ademac !! Forex would suddenly be easy... I'd finally make it... and be a real trader after all this time....
Well..... not so quick.... maybe if you add up all the pin bars inthe world... and trade them all... you would come out ahead.... who knows.... ....
hey Tiki,
Have you got a chance to read this yet? It was probably a waste of time posting there. ..
There are people reading this thread (you know who you are..), who only trade pin bars at swing low/high using anything from 5 to 12% of their accounts on each trade. If it takes them to wait a couple of months for a perfect one, so be it....
Then they laugh all the way to the bank..
Open a demo and trade only those PBs they use see posted in this thread from time to time. In just one year.. you will not believe the balance on that demo..
I'm glad you liked it. The higher tf you go, the easier it gets. Some 20-40 good trades per year can easily double your account, unless its size is worth billions... it becomes more difficult then. But then again if your account is worth 10mil and you make 30-40%/per year it may be more than enough for many..
....by Diallist has been a great help to me some time ago. If you want to succeed in this business I recommend that you read posts 18-30. It is the second most valuable thread on the ff for me, right after this one.
Hey Mark,
thanks for sharing that! Great stuff, truly appreciated!
RM
No problem RM
sarama001, have you taken advantage of gap on yen crosses?
I've closed half of my open shorts from friday at the open today. The remainder will be stopped out or trailed till 204 or perhaps 201
He he,,
I think I know some of them...
Thanks for puting this out there as well as you have Rac.
People, read that post many times. It can be that simple & rewarding. My personal opinion is that it is harder for new people to wait, be patient, manage exits, & repeat. This will come with experience.
Thanks again for that great post Rac. I also think i know a few people who took the same trades
...
anytime Jeff.
yes, waiting for a perfect setup used to be a nightmare for me as well..
... and still is sometimes, hence R 1hr-db was born..
great post, very enlightening, thanks for taking the time to share this. One quick question, when you refer to a retracement is this after the pb has broke or do you pre-empt a break and get in early after the pb forms with the risk the the pb never triggers?
thanks again
DP
..pre-empt the break.
Anything from 23-61f would do. I'll take breaks as well. What I do depends on how I view certain currency at the moment. e.g. cable last night.
I was watching charts and wanted to buy good size cable longs around 9670/80 with tp at 98. Why? Cable was bleeding badly last week after all that negative news, yet BoE left rate unchanged what in response changed short term trend. Why did they do that, what did they know, you and I didn't. Very simple they knew PPI number (released today) will be too high to cut rates. That's the reason I wanted to buy cable badly last night yet decided to set limit 40ps lower at 9640. Price never got there and it is toying with my tp right now. So, it's really up to you what you will do. Sometimes price never looks back and breaks higher.... IT IS OK to miss a trade.
I just read the first 150 pages of the thread and still trying to finish reading all the pages here While doing so, I came accross a pinbar in usd/cad daily.
What's the best way of playing this?
a) set a sell stop 10 pips from the bottom of PB and s/l at the top of pb?
b) wait for a 38 retracement with a stop loss above the 61.8 retracement?
My question is, if I were to go with the "b" option, do i need to wait for a certain PA at the retracement or just place a market order at that retracement blindly?
Please let me know what you guys think. Thanks.
Regards,
y.caesar
As Mike has already mentioned, there is no definite answer. I recommend a) for new traders until they demo it and get good feel for price behavior on a given currency.
Personally I buy/sell initially around second eye or 23-61fib retracement with 2/3 of position (if it pb formed off good s/r area with confluence) and add another 1/3 on the break.
Hi, everybody!
Sorre for off topic, but I thought it wouldn't be much for a weekend to talk about something else, just not to analyze charts...
I'm quite new to forex - just more than half a year. I've started my journey with technical analysis basics - you know, indicators and stuff like that...
Then I thought to find something called EA to make money for me...silly boy. Maybe there is, but not for a newbie and for free.
Then I started to look for "systems", tried a couple on demo - like DM song - it's no good... Until I found system called "OZfx daily"
Sorry, I know, that he is banned now form FF and this is not a promotion of any kind for his stuff... The story goes on...
I've tried it and found, that in some cases there is possibility to earn some money. And the come James16 thread. I've read it, learned it and now I try to do trading "naked".
Now I thinking - what is the difference between such OZfx system and James lessons? Both are not perfect - you need to watch charts, indicators for some criteria to place trades, but there are not 100% guarantee.
I'm still in USD/CAD short based on Wednesdays PIN, so I'm not dead yet But it was so perfect PIN ( as for me), I can't believe it will not work out.
James, if you read this, please, do any comments...
Happy weekend!!!
hi initex..
Nothing is perfect in this world, but I can't remember last time I had a losing week using j16 PA. Trades yes, weeks no....
I have a little project in the pf called 'MI4' (mission impossible 4), where I post all my trades from one of my ultra small accounts created for this purpose at the end of each week. Started with... $4.84 and still alive after 8 weeks with almost 3,000% account gain....
Re: cad pin... I’m not going to explain in details here, since it’s beyond what we can talk about on the public forum, but James has made several excellent videos and live conference recordings (yes, they’re available only if you’re a member), which explain exactly how he trades and where he would take profit. I’d say that for those who follow his methods, this pin was profitable on partial position and the rest was stopped out at BE+ some….
You would have to excuse my ignorance, but I really don't know what ozfx is, nor I care to find out.... .
Enjoy your weekend and pips...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vensik
I don't see where he told people they should subscribe or that Oz works better than this system. I wouldn't be too quick to throw him under the bus yet.
public 'j16 chart tread' is not a system. It's a method or a tool if you will, that can be used to better up your system. Although James described several systems, he uses and teaches on the private site, I don't recall it was ever mentioned here..
Hi i appreciate tour posts ,they are most helpful,however i have a question regarding the trades you post in the PF. Do you also give details on the reasons why you place the trades?
Thanks and Regards
Gerard
Hi Gerard,
Only if I'm asked.. either directly or via pm. I'm basically following big footsteps of more successful and established traders. Explaining what I do and why upfront would be a repetition of what they've already said....
Cheers,
r.
There is a reason why price was rejected at 1.5520 (i posted chart in pf). Let's see if we can get 4hr pb now.
I wasn't patient enough and closed my longs at 1.5460 (actually it was a TP hit in European session....
.
I'm reading and reading different threads on FF and can't believe what some people do..
Some are saying, they used price action but it didn't work for them.
Others jump from system to system.... first they use j16setups, then they move to jacko, then they use jacko fiber method on different crosses, then they move to dibs, joe's surefire-tons of pips system, then hillary sure win....?
I don't know... but one thing is certain; humans tend to complicate their lives every day and when they see something simple that works, they get suspicious. How in a thousand years simple stuff could work?
I really don't know and don't care... I'm really happy that it does...
Many pips everyone.....
P.S. For those who know, there are plenty of R1-db setups on this chart below as well, but I won't even go there....
.
I like the USD/Swissy BEOB on daily (Flem has chart a few posts back). Aligns perfectly with what appears to be a nice double top. Could potentially be a pretty big move down from here.
and what started this move down....?
a pb off ppz...
I've been doing very well with 50/61fib ret for some time now, but it took me a while to demo and fine-tune it.... and it is still discretionary..
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65
Hello James16 and all,
For some time, I have been thinking to reduce my risk using these two methods below, but I don't really know what the most efficient would be to apply on my 4 hours trading ?
1) A LIMIT order at the 50% or 61.8% of the set-up retracement with my stop loss 1/2 pips above/below the set-up ?
2) A STOP order at the breakout level with my STOP loss at 50% or 61.8% of the set-up retracement ?
Your way of adding position at retracement levels is very interesting but would you mind telling me where exactly do you place your stop loss ?
I'm going to try the first method by placing a LIMIT order at the 50% fibs retracement of a Pin Bar for example, with a stop loss 1/2 pips above/below the PB.
I don't want to be out too early using the method 2 by placing my stop loss at 61.8% PB retracement.
This way of trading fits me.
Best regards
Happy trading
Angel65
Initial stop is always above bar high of your entry, but how you play out the trade and move your stops, take partial or final profit, it's another story.
g/j trade.
We had daily beovb last week and everyone made few pips. What would happen to your account if you waited with additional entries at 50fib ret (as it is what you plan to do) and move your fib ratracement along the way....
You would still be in a trade with 2/3 positions now (depending on your experience and risk tolerance) and your final stop (you said 61fib) around 212.20. Or if you had your midterm final tp where mine was, you'd be out flat with around 550- 900 pips on two/three lots....
Well this goes beyond PA, we discuss here, so I'll shut up now..
.
Well, got this pb at a pretty good price (at least at this juncture!) 167.950 last night
very nice, right on the second eye ret..
How are you planning to execute this trade in terms of TPs, and length you're going to keep it? Trades taken off of weekly charts take time to play out...
I'm asking since I've seen people taking trades on weekly and close it 10min later for 50pips..or so..
Hi raczekfx, I was wondering what the price action for the sell trigger was in the chart (EURUSD chart) you posted? I gather price has reached some sort of level that you've marked on your chart, but how did you know it wasn't going to burst through the level on the next bar?
Cheers
Rob
My apologies Rob.. Dave, but I can't discuss it here in public. It's not based on PA, but it's the pf stuff...
Initial stop is always above bar high of your entry, but how you play out the trade and move your stops, take partial or final profit, it's another story.
g/j trade.
We had daily beovb last week and everyone made few pips. What would happen to your account if you waited with additional entries at 50fib ret (as it is what you plan to do) and move your fib ratracement along the way....
...
.
4th also worked... does it always? off course not...
.
Yes it has been working well this time.......It's likely a 5 five waves Elliot sequence : isn't it ?
It could be, I don't know.. I like it simple and easy and don't subscribe to voodoo wave methods.
My core is ppz or s/r if you will,... and thanks to James for opening my eyes.
If you demo your trades around support/resistance for few months the lightbulbs should suddenly turn on and you will never look at any other system ever again. No ema crossovers, no dibs, no blackjack thingy.. . Charts will start talking to you, period.
It's sooooo.. simple, and this is exactly the reason why people don't see it. It's too simple for any engineers and phd to understand it until they become like a children again. Once they do, it's never gonna be the same..
happy trading to all.
hey guyz i am on vacation and i am w0ndering how the eurjpy weekly pin and the usdchf daily pin few days back play 0ut
If anyone to0k those trades can u update me on them
..
The way things have been lately, that'll stop right at 5750.. which means the R:R on that trade is crazy horrible...
probably, and yes to RR, unless you're already in the trade. I'm actually expecting breakup in U/C with first target being 1.037 and then 1.08, but when fiber falls to 1.53 and beyond, it will most likely drag e/c along.
p.s. I heard your pipsociety is doing very well....
Good to see you Rac.
I have been playing all pins very short term lately, no matter what tf. so i'm out of that one. I just dont have the temperment to hold through the volatility currently. yes of course its because i risk more than is normal.
gotta keep paying the diesel bills for the yacht you know...
Diesel can be still expensive, but price got where we said it will go ($100) several weeks ago, contrary to all those 'analysts' predicting $200.. and PA tipped us off..
Pins has been great lately; we just need to be more picky in market conditions like we're in now..
Hi raczek,
This was definitely a great trade on GY and still has a long way to go IMO. Would you care to tell me how did you know not to rush in with the first PB on Daily, but you entered only at the 3rd one?
thanx.
Cause it felt like catching a falling knife if I bought it before market close on Friday. There was no way of knowing how price would open on Sunday. It gaped right to a level were I'd start taking some profit (march 17 low). I thought about going short, but price collapsed before I could act. Second pin was perfect imho (we've just established lower band of a range), but I was going away for a couple of days and wouldn't be able to act accordingly. Third pin was just an and ice cream.....for every PA trader I know....
.. and that's the whole story.
closing half of this trade at 175.90 (around weekly ppz). No, it wasn't based on 5min....
golf time again...
p.s. Looking to close the rest around 165/168, or get stopped out. who cares now...
My favorite and The most profitable setup is approaching.....(and final TA at the same time if you're cable short)
There is plenty of time if you know what you're doing, use proper MM and spend most of your time either soaring or on the golf course....(away from your comp). Right SL....?
..
feel now would be a good time to mention that I agree with Igrok's view of 7500 and worse coming for the DJI.
Hehehe..
makes sense. this is where I might consider selling yen again....
Funny, when I look at indexes today and think of my banker, who laughed at my moves last year in august.
This is when I moved all my long term investments to mm and treasuries...
closing half of this trade at 175.90 (around weekly ppz). No, it wasn't based on 5min....
golf time again...
p.s. Looking to close the rest around 165/168, or get stopped out. who cares now...
R.
Closed second half (168) and reversed to long today. 50 fib ret. of a daily pin.
It'd be nice to get out around 184 in the next few days, but I will probably let go half along the way
..
Great trade raczek! I was so hoping you would share your favorite PA set up.
Thank you
Best wishes,
Jason
no problem J.
You wait for such setups for a while, but when they come, you better be ready . Sometimes they only come once or twice every few months.
Practice and master them and you will never look below daily TF ever again. The Earth is too beautiful, life's too short to waste it in from of the computer...
Best,
R.
What Jim's trying to say here is that you don't let winners become losers.
You can move your stop to BE and get stopped out. That's not a loss.
You can take some profit once you're 75ps and move stop to BE on the rest. That's a winning trade.
What you don't do, is to watch your trade make you profit and then let it turn into a loss. That's not a business, that's gambling at its worst.
Some folks here trade with $1000/pip, so those 75ps can be two annual salaries for an average Joe and losing it....... you get my point....?
Long since 1.6990 (50/61fib, confl, etc... and 50fib of daily pin retracement)
..
another example of the same methodology (more risky)on a smaller TF. This is just about as low as I get.
Retrace to mid 50/61fib and ppz confl, before reloading longs.
Waiting for PA confirmation is always safer though.
SL below 61fib (at the time of a trade), TP - bars low or another ppz (on the same TF)
..
Nice setup Racz, you old scalper you! If that worked only 50% of the time you would be in the money big time. Thanks,
Jason
It works about 70% of the time if you know what you doing, instead of blindly playing retraces at fibs. You combine those setups with info from post #14469 and your odds increase to about 85%...
Raczek's the master of those plays. You can bet he did.
It's important for me to take some profit around 60-120ps on half pos. and move stop to BE or just below the resistance level on the rest. With GU, the sl on the other half is just below 1.7130
Aint' PF GOLD?
Hope you made a track load of money on that setup...
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa
I was looking at the GBPUSD last night while checking out racekfx's 1hr R-db thread on the J16 private forum and posted this to my journal over there......just drilling down to the 1hr looking for a possible trend reversal or entry point....no trade in place at the moment as I'm very wary about picking a bottom but very interesting nonetheless.
The chart grab was taken last night, my time and price has moved up a bit since then.
Price is retesting the 78.6% Fib from the move Northwards starting from May 2001...
Aint' PF GOLD?
Hope you made a track load of money on that setup...
R
..cont..
It was a dream R-db setup, off either 4hr or 1hr TF (with PPZ confl) and good for...... 1300ps. All the way to another 50/61fib () with ppz confl...
What else can you ask for? 2-3 setups like that per month will take you places.
.