Bearish outside bar on weekly chart of crude futures. If this ship does not turn around $50 is in the cards at some point. Forget about the emerging economies and their craving for oil, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is price. Thanks Jim.
BTW, that close below the 365 day ema (blue line) is key.
The most likely scenario is that we'll be trading in a range $58-86 for the next 6 months. Look for the best setup between those two ppz.
Personally I doubt, we'll be sitting below $60 for too long... and Ideally I'd love to see a PB off of 52.
.
The most likely scenario is that we'll be trading in a range $58-86 for the next 6 months. Look for the best setup between those two ppz.
Personally I doubt, we'll be sitting below $60 for too long... and Ideally I'd love to see a PB off of 52.
.
... or you can go lower, look for your PPZs and trade accordingly, using PA (if you like intra-day action...)
.
Yeah. Watching the DBLHC on the SP 2 hr. More affordable to me. lol
I suppose you faded that?
.. yes, when dow hit that 3B (around 7990), I bought all three: dj, e/u and g/u...., been waiting for the last 3 days for this . Set up tps for half and will see what happens with the rest.
R.
hey Raczek, were you thinking abt this PB? will you trade it? i think it looks great.
(USD/CHF Daily PB)
Was watching weekly ppz on u/chf. I have already pos in fiber, but this could be a very nice trade also. We could get a weekly PB as well. We'll see. I have marked (blue horizontal lines on daily) few points of interest.....
gu also looks interesting. I'm not a fundi guy, but lower interest rates should already be priced in here. If we get a daily pb, I might stay in this trade. If not I'll call it the weekend..
.
I will admit i am not the sharpest knife here. But i am really confused on setups like this. Yes it is a PB and on the daily TF which i find are fairly reliable, even ones in bad positions i can often get to BE at least.
However with all those bar highs at 1.180 will this trade have any place to go? So far i see pb and weekly PPZ for the trade and the trend with recent resistance against the trade. Am i missing something obvious here?
you're absolutely correct. If pin breaks, price will most likely slow down or stop around 1.18. This is exactly why I prefer a 'little' more aggressive method of trading, which allows me more room to maneuver, once price moves 'in the right direction'. These days however market is very volatile and everything is possible.
Its a good feeling when you can do this. Go get some Mark..
I hate scalping, but may have no choice for some time....
Closed e/u and g/u last night at 18:43PM EST. Reason: past experience
Market is still wild and I was anticipating a pullback in asia after US sesion excitement.
Reopened following trades on pullback at 9:30AM EST:
g/j 142.255
g/chf 1.7553
e/u 1.2670
g/u 1.4757
Was with you on eu identical entry, just got shaken out darn it. How are yours doing? guessing you took some profit off the table. Nice spread of entries dude.
I needed to take kids to a doc at 2, but moved my stops to be + some before that.
tp for g/j at 146.10 (missed it by few pips)
tp for G/Chf at 177.50 (missed)
tp for G/U at 1.4940 hit
fiber stopped out at BE
.. and one more (just bought). This is not based on PA, therefore risky trade in anticipation of a break out higher. Will auto industry be allowed to bite the dust or will they be bailed out.....?
ps. looking for 98 and then 100. Ok... time to do some Christmas shopping.. will check back after US markets close
.
GBP/JPY
Right direction?
I was looking for a shorting position off weekly support around 14800 plus 50%fib on 4hr
Pin bar seems to be forming - if it keeps dropping.
then trade short with the trend
That's correct. Have a look at pb or ib on my chart, formed off drawn ppz
148.5 was my TP. In terms of short trade I was going to wait for a PA around 149.5. This may change depending what daily bar we get today...
It's not over till it's over. We may still see a run up on dow late in a session (I use it as a barometer for all my yen trades)
Here are few of my trades for today. They were all executed when Dow Jones matched the low from October 7, 2002. PA has always been great to me, but I hope you guys also keep an eye on over all markets. When DJ's approaching 6 year low, this is definitely a golden opportunity (sparks will fly) if you know which pairs to chose for trading... . TPs had been hit.
.
good stuff Mark.. at least the markets are moving again.
and that's what wee need, volatility. I'm really looking forward to that last bar becoming a pb today. Lot's of time left.
I also made a bold move today and moved all of mine long term investments out of the money markets funds (they've been sitting there since July 2007) and put them into equities. Time will tell if that's was the right move. Is 7776 a bottom for Dow? Let's hope so, too many jobs will be lost if things won't settle soon....
Happy trading to all.
yup. this video is worth $Ks alone. Will people learn from it and use the golden knowledge, it contains? I sure hope so, but there still be 95%, who will use tons of indicators, guru's signals, etc and continue to wonder for another 10years why they can't make it..... to work
Another day with plenty of PA gifts. This one was a beautiful one with nice confluence and good for some 250ps. TP down to a pip.
Have a great weekend!
I passed on this trade due to what appeared to be support not too far below the Pin bar.
Did you wait for a break of this support to enter the trade? Did the support not concern you? Do I suck and cannot pick out support and resistence and scared myself out of a good trade (LOL, probably true)?
Thanks!
no, I didn't. If you read my previous posts, my favorite setup is between 50/61 fib near confluence areas... It's anything but conservative entry. The first resistance, I was looking at was around 1.48 (watch James free videos for hints )
I missed my R-db setup, otherwise I'd be in it at 1.5056 with 25pip stop..
i was in the same trade, only i thought over some time perhaps it might break that low and go further down....
did u exit on the low or did u wait a bit on retrace to see if it would attemp to break the low
i got out on the bullish pin type pattern on 1hr
out of half at 1.4820, out of the rest at 1.4750.
I'm now long since 1.4712 (based on my own R-db method), after 1hr pb (off ppz) broke higher, I added to a full position on fib retrace. I'm looking for gaps on e/u, g/u, and all yen crosses when market opens on Sunday.
tip: watch for dow futures hitting 7950 ( I may lighten my positions there)
hope it helps.
R
p.s.
my current positions:
long e/u
long g/u
long g/j
long e/j
long u/j
short us/cad
I expect good profit on these crosses over the next few days...
I really admire each of your PA trades you take, i took the Gu short at the 1H Pb to get a better price than waiting for the 4H to close , i got burned, but does'nt matter I always enjoy my loosers as they help me learn more than any knowledge i gain from my winners.
Keep posting around, we are extermely fortunate that ppl like you can be around the forum throwing abt pieces of gem
God Bless!
Regards,
Ghous.
You?re welcome guys, but most of the credit goes to James.
I?ve been using a lot of ?crap? (read indicators and worthless systems) since 1995. I even wasted money on many of them, but it was James16, who opened my eyes some time ago and implanted in my head, that ?simple things? always work the best. PA is simple and when practiced on demo for some time, you should ?get a feel for it?.
I only added some experience, observations and mass psychology to improve my results, and that?s all, seriously.
I mainly trade off of a daily charts, but since that political B.S. at my previous workplace, I do some day trading on smaller TFs (1hr being the lowest). Sometimes I get ?lucky? to get in almost at ?bottom? of the move. That?s risky, but it?s also my style of trading and I enjoy it.
I wrote more about it in the PF some time ago, and since then, nothing has really changed. Should I go back to a corporate world again, I will move back to daily TF and use only ?SIMPLE STUFF?. It works 80% out of time; the rest is patience, common sense and money management.
In the last 3 weeks, I made about 20 trades and every single one of them showed at least 100ps profit before reversing. Did I win all of them? No, I didn?t but that?s another story and failure to move stop to BE at some point. Bottom line is, that if you treat trading as a business, and not as some sort of exciting video game, you will succeed in the long term. There is no other way, imho.
Its awsome that you are showing how you trade, (sort of ).
I only admire what you do Mark.
As I said, you keep go getting some..... One day i'll get to where you are.
When I do, I want to go fly, never done that. only sailed....
Don't be so modest Jeff.. I know, you trade very well
Soaring is a beautiful thing. You have to try an intro flight one day.
Here are some great short videos to let you see what's it like:
Hi, Raczek!
Always nice to see You around!
I think unlv wanted to ask You wheather the 4H bar highs and lows (blue line) concerned You, or not?
Am I right when I think, this trade was based on D1 pin eye level, and You set the target based on daily bars, not 4H?
Correct me, please, if I wrong!
THX, Laszlo
ok. I'll give you a hint, but you'd have to figure out the rest by yourself....
(just ignore that buy line, you see on the chart)
That short trade was based on a combination of:
1. what was captured by blue rectangle on 1hr chart attached...
2. a 4hr chart, I posted on Friday
and 3. (see next post)
... and this daily chart, which is self explanatory. You know I can't say just everything. There are only few poeople who post here, but there are hundreds other lurkers, who will combine this info into a system e-book and sell it on ebay or other websites. We have to keep some secrets hidden from a generic public......
are we going to break this resistance on the first try?
I doubt it, but who knows. If not, I'd expect some pullback on yen crosses....
At least we know exactly why price stopped where it did.
.
I don't know what your definition of "soon" is but EURUSD should continue the bear trend, I see no reason why it would stop. On D1, the 200MA should cross below the 365SMA sometime this week and I believe that indicates a continuation in the trend.
Should, would, could.... perhaps it will, perhaps it will hit 1.30 first.
Sorry, I know nothing about crossing MAs systems...
if equities and crude oil will 'cooperate', we could perhaps hit our next TPs
For g/j, I see it around 145.80 and for loonie around 1.2530. E/J has just been hit.
It seems, I'm flooding our thread again, time to take a break....
Trade wisely.
.
Hey Raczek, What makes your short entry on the USD/CAD Daily? Is there any PA or other confluence except for that previous resistant swing high. Thanks
ALM
PA on oil futures and imminent failure of a double top on CAD. Hope you're enjoying the ride..
p.s. just closed that trade @ 1,2390 (almost 450ps). I know it's not a 5min trade and it took whole 2 trading days to unfold...., but hey, I like to have a life.
I didn't see this beautiful double top with MACD divergence on loonie...
This make me sad... Well let's wait to another good setup.
One question.
Is it important the fibo confluence marked in my chart? If I had seen this setup on loonie, probably I would have skipped because of that confluence.
Is my fibo drawn correct?
thanks!
Can't really see numbers on your chart. Here's what my fibs look like.
.
Thanks for the answer Raczek. I've posted a better chart in my last post if you want to see.
I drawn the white fibo from the last top to bottom of the monthly chart and the blue one was the last daily swing.
they seem to be drawn backwards or is it me.... ,if you're looking for a retrace, draw them from the lowest point to the highest point. hope this helps.
Also no need to bash others on the way they trade, I do the 5min because it works for me. Let me know when 20 pips = $30,000 then you can say what I do is a waste of time.
Also I don't need a life I don't have to work unlike others.
Dude, I'm bashing no one. This is actually the first post of yours I read, since it was addressed to me. Even if your pip is worth $1,000, it makes no difference to me. Rest assure, I'll be even happier for you.
Have a great day Mr. no life....
I am a little stumped on inside bars. I will leave these for now as they seem harder to read than the other PA setups, but for future reference...
what did i do wrong?
I went short when bar no.3 broke below the inside bar no.2. I had my stop above bar no.1 It then immediately moved up and through my stop.
Was the setup just in the wrong place? and this is how i should have played this? Or should my entry point have been below the low of bar no.1
thanks
Simon
You played it correctly (imo), but IBs are tricky and as everything else, they don't always work.
Actually on my chart the very same IB broke to the upside. You can always go quickly to a lower tf to get a better picture. My 1hr shows a ppz right in the area where your IB broke lower.
You played it correctly (imo), but IBs are tricky and as everything else, they don't always work.
Actually on my chart the very same IB broke to the upside. You can always go quickly to a lower tf to get a better picture. My 1hr shows a ppz right in the area where your IB broke lower.
Look at this IB. It broke lower and they higher. I'd suggest you stay away from IBs until you master PBs and BE/Uovbs first. I never liked IBs at first either and it took me some time, before I got comfortable with them.
.
Watch eur/usd, gpb/usd and e/j, g/j once we hit that ppz. It might be a clue to our next PA setup....
hope you enjoyed it in real time. market will do it over and over again if you're patient enough.
Oh well, another day, another penny on a $100 account...
Happy trading to all and see you around!
.
it could be, I don't know.
I'm quite content with drops on yen crosses. Booked nice profit on half, other half is at BE, so it does not really matter ...
My account stands at $ 102 now....
Heavy resistance coming soon for Eur/Chf at 1.5557. Previous resistance and Fib retracement confluence (61.2 and 50% levels). You can bet people other people are watching this level. ..
I would really like to know what it is based on Rac If i am not asking too much on a public forum sine obviously there was no PA to confirm the bounce of the s/r flip i am curious what gets you in this trade.
sure ghous. It's based on simple support/resistance trading and some info from a great book. Check out 'favorite trading book' in my profile...
it's really great, once you practice, practice and practice it for a while..
Hi raczekfx,
could you please elaborate a bit on how u manage the SL and TP based on this support/resistance trading?Thank you.
When trading S/R, my stops are no greater than 35ps. The larger position, the smaller my stop is, and I'm very picky with S/Rs setups. If I do my homework properly, they're rarely hit. TPs are usually next S/R levels, unless something tells me to close early. I close half and move stop to BE +2 at that time.
When trading PA, I place stops 10-20ps below 'the setup bars' (PB, be/uovbs, IBs, etc) and sometimes they can be as large as 300ps as it was the case with cable's beovb on Nov.9, 2007. Hope this helps.
Thanks raczekfx for the prompt reply.Do you have criteria when selecting the support/resistence you are going to place your limit order? In other words how do you find an efficient support/resistence? Your performance really amazed me.Thanks.
start with monthly tf and look for s/r, go down to weekly, daily and do the same thing. If s/r on a higher tf corresponds to one on the lower tf, you have much better chances it will hold again. When doing this, I had about 80% W/L ratio. If you just pick a random s/r on lower tf, chances it will hold are dramatically lower. If you pick s/r 'with a trend' (on price retrace), your odds are much greater than playing one against the trend.
If you're fairly new to trading, I'd forget about playing s/r until until you make money consistently using your own system. Generally speaking this way of trading carries great risk of losing money quickly, but everything can be mastered with patience, practice (on demo) and proper MM. The PROPER way of playing S/R is waiting for a PA around those levels before trading. Hope this helps. I have posted many chart examples in this thread, some of them live, but you'd have to do some searching....
Price bounced off area where we'd expect it to.
4hr ppz,1d ppz, 50/61 fib and something else, confluence.
Good target and quick aggressive long off 2700.
p.s. I was short cable and fiber from 1.2925 last night, but closed too soon
I also played short cable this morning after price retested break out area with 61fib confl.
I bet RustyJeff played that pb ? It formed in a perfect location..
Watch how the weekly gold bar closes today. It might gives us some tips where $$ is headed next week. Price was rejected right at 61fib and price pivot confluence.
Very nice Mark,
I only took the euro though as thats my prefered. I had been waiting for a while for this break lower. now waiting for another break or bounce & retest..
Still recovering from yesterdays overeating..
I closed fiber too early but caught up with with cable..
it's funny when I sold cable at 5376 this morning, I started moving down tfs and when I saw that 5min pb forming, I was happy....
Get some rest my friend. I'm almost done for the week, but want to see what dow and gold are going to do..
good trading to all.
Should'nt 1.525 be a worry?? Plus any downmove may also be qualified for a pullback to the trendline just broken (I am talking abt the daily) the Mike thingy if so then we might have all the gredients for the dish called "breakout plus pullback plus PA"...Mike's a great cook...
I don't know ghous if we get there, I'm looking for a break out higher to about 1.58 next week (just like I was looking for fiber to hit 1.30 in my post #15640 last week ). Just watch the BIG foot prints.
another setup I'm watching.. .. (dow please move up to 8900; this will be a trigger for my e/j, g/j, g/u, e/u, n/u a/u )
Waited 5 days for this. Futures never reached that level so I had to pull triggers manually,.. exactly 17 hrs ago. Still have 3/4 of original positions...
Are we ready for a ride up...?
Absolutely. By taking a trade at 'the right location', you're increasing your chances greatly, where on the other hand trading just to trade, will make other people rich, not you. First chart is what I consider 'right location'. A pin bar (not the perfect one ) or bub off of weekly price pivot, 61fib and round number confluence. There is no 100% guarantee that it will work out, but at least you cherry pick your trades. When it fails, you accept it and move on to the next trade knowing that you did your homework. Losses are part of this business, but our work is to minimize them.
Second chart is what I consider 'no trade' or bad location. Some might say it's a pb or nice looking BB, however it's in the midle of consolidation area and chances that it will work out are slim. It also appeared right after Beovb, so that alone should make you think twice before jumping in.
....
Second chart is what I consider 'no trade' or bad location. Some might say it's a pb or nice looking BB, however it's in the midle of consolidation area and chances that it will work out are slim. It also appeared right after Beovb, so that alone should make you think twice before jumping in.
Having said all that, it does not mean that you can't make money on that bar. Some people here trade on smaller TF and when you analyze that daily BUB on 4hr, you should notice that we had a pb off of ppz. That pb would be in a good location as well, if I traded on 4hr...
Another important question is where to take a profit, but that's up to a trader. If you watched James16 free videos, you would make at least 100ps..
I know that James16 and others don't pay attentio on news, but tomorrow has the NFP announce. So, if the today price bar closes with this PB, isn't risky to put a pending order at it?
I am afraid, cause due to the volatility cause by NFP, we can have our order triggered and price, after that, go to the wrong direction.
Well, I've closed all my positions today few minutes after mr. b had spoken. Pretty much all of them hit good resistance imo.
Regarding tomorrow's nfp, I hope we get some retraces on today's daily pins.
It might sound like crystal balling, but the last thing US of A needs right now is a strong $$$....
Interesting you closed before B spoke. I learn something new here all the time, I love this thread.
If you don't mind sharing, did you take any trades today? If so, you don't have to post charts or an explanation, but could you list a few?
I think I can look at the charts and see what you saw and with 20/20 hindsight figure it out.
Thank you!
No secrets or magic here. If you have a plan and trade your plan.....
e.g.
G/U has approached ppz, 50/61fib (my favorite setup...). What would you do? Wait till it breaks that confluence... on the first try...
it isn't the nicest pb (on daily), but have a look at a monthly chart. How much lower can we go? If there is no reaction on futures after tomorrow's nonfarm report, I'll be looking for opportunity to buy.. with first tp around 1.52. If that trade works out, we should also see g/j hit 140.50 - 141. It's all speculations right now, but also part of planning phase of a trading plan for tomorrow.
Rac, thanks for posting your charts. I've learned a lot from studying them over the past few weeks. I hope that one day I can have an eye for as many markets and timeframes as you do!
I'm glad I could help. I only watch about 30 markets, including 18 currencies. This gives me opportunity to pick the best setups, instead of trading just for 'fun'. Many times futures, indexes and 'some' pairs can tip you off before other crosses take off or tank.
The cad & gbp were just too perfect for me today.
Ive allready added to them
I smell the december rally. divergence, over sold conditions, a rally on friday after the worst jobs numbers in 34 years...........
maybe people are getting tired of selling.
have a good weekend all awsome week.
Thanks a lot, I've learned a lot from studying your charts too.
I didn't see any Stop Loss levels, just your entry levels : does it mean that you use big stop loss levels ?
Thanks for your attention
Cheers
Angel65
Hi Angel,
I keep stops just below the setup that triggered my trade. If it's a pb on 1hr, stop would be few pips below/above that pb. If there is ppz, 61fib or some kind of confluence, I could place it below/above it. Same rules apply to trading on daily, weekly, monthly charts. If I enter on 1hr most of the time I'm out on the same time frame.
e.g. I shorted u/c on 1hr and my initial stop was above monthly ppz. I have now moved my stop as indicated below. Please note that I haven't played or assumed daily PB yet. When I decide to play that daily pin, my initial stop will be again above monthly ppz and will exit it on daily as well.
You don't see stops on charts I post simply because I don't use MT4 for trading. I only use it to keep track of my trades as a visual representation. I pull a trigger and then execute the same trade on my demo mt4 and save it later for reference. Hope this helps.
I just have a question about your short at U/C.
Why you did short here? That was not a pin bar, is it?
Please I am learning so your explanation will help me a lot.
Thanks.
On Thursday night, after analyzing charts I saw 80% probability of daily pin forming on Friday on Cad. This thread is about PA and not about precognition,so I stop here...
You can read post by Life of pip (#16216) and Northpro. They were watching the same charts I was.... for Life of Pi p
raczekfx
you're really great...you take every good signal
I didn't take yesterday signals because it was friday afternoon
thanks, but I don't take every signal. I do my due diligence, check PF for Mike's take on the market (), watch for PA on smaller tf (once I made decision) and then trade..... unless I'm intoxicated (then, I take every signal - joking of course)
Not much on PA, but all base on price retrace after approaching PPZ. I read raczekfx post regarding yesterday NFP and he mentioned pairs that he was monitoring playing around the strong/respected PPZ area. I see how this strong PPZ is respected before and I agree with him price is due to retrace if it fail to give strong impact toward current direction after the NFP announcement. As I mentioned this is copy from raczekfx entry stail. (playing around PPZ)
Nice trades tokwanden.
It sounds, I run signal provider here... I better stop..
Just a few words of caution. I don't emphasize on trades around s/r ppzs. I trade strictly PA and those trades are just 'reconnaissance scouts', if you will, with absolutely strict rules and MM. Trading ppz CAN BE and WILL BE lethal to your account unless you use strict money management and proper stops. That's no secret, I've been there many times before but don't have plans to revisit those times.... . Friday’s trades were combination of a big puzzle put together, which included thoughts on US economy, bad NF news already priced in, oil and Cad hitting strong resistance, past experience and many other items from micro economy. Just so you are aware these were not blinds trades. Please exercise great caution if you trade aggressively without waiting for confirmed PA first.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Nice trading plan raczek (as always). Clean and simply.
(God, I love this thread.)
We learnt from the best.....
You're not the only one. You'd be surprised to know, who reads this thread.... and never posts.
Got a watch what we write here...
raczekfx sorry and txs. Sorry for using word emphasize. I just cant find the right word to explain it in proper way but I really/always do understand that u and others in here using strictly PA. Confluence of PPZ Fibo, round numbers and all just to make the signal more reliable/strong. (hopefully I don't make it worst this time.English is always difficult for me).
I don't take it as a signal but as a guideline to be a better trader and I learn a lot from it..
I was teasing you...
... and don't worry about your English. It's better than mine.
English isn't my first either. It's third or perhaps fourth, I've learnt..
You have been sharing your knowledge a lot with the community and it's very kind of you...............
My best to you
Have a great week end all
Cheers
Angel65
Welcome Angel..
You see, I 'know' that the more you give away or share with others, the more comes back to you. Why do you think J16 is a wealthy and happy man?
Because he's got a big and sincere heart, and helps others less fortunate, even though he could be silent. It's people like him, who make this world a better place. The Universe is full of live and intelligent energy.. what goes around, comes around...(and folks, who started this crisis, know that)
Thanks clockwork,
Maybe I phrased my question wrong.What I meant to ask about is the risk/reward on this trade.Looks as if a stop is put above the pin,we are not even at a 1:1 RR.Sorry for the confusment.And thank you also clockwork for your post,I always make sure I read your posts if I come accross them!Goodtrading!
Everyone will look at the same chart and will see different things. Let's say someone I know is looking at sl above friday's high and tp around 1.21 and 1.18, which would give him about 2:1 or 3:1 (reward/risk)
Exactly, and you posted a statement. Take a closer look at my original post, there is no hope or guarantee there. Please kindly take your own advise before telling others what is going to happen with the market.
Sure I will. Thanks for your advise...
BTW. Welcome to the forum TV
An Ib i just took on the Gbp/chf 4H chart in the form of a pending order waiting for the low to break, it was off the 50% fib the trrigger being the Ib ofcaorse. The first target has been labelled.
calling on Rac...
Regards,
Ghous.
If I was in this trade I would've shorted right where your blue down arrow is plotted...
No trade for me here, but watch 1.77 area. I won't say what's going to happen here so TV don't get upset...
I was watching g/chf on daily but price didn't get quite where I wanted (1.8260).
will look to reload later in a day..
Only 2 trades for me last night.
1. added more shorts to u/c at 1.2694
2. longed cad/jpy at 73.09
I'm flat now as of 9:03 am EST
Why do you think you've lost the chance to make 200 pips? You didn't expect a pullback after a quick move like that? Late Asia pushed all of those pairs up quickly last night -- you need to expect some sort of pullback going into US. This happens every day...
Absolutely, especially when you watch other markets and can read between the lines....
what's a gonna be...? Big break or violent retrace...
...BEIJING, Dec 8 (Reuters) - One of the top managers of China Investment Corp, the country's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, reckons current dollar strength is temporary and he would like to bet that the U.S. currency is headed lower.
CIC President Gao Xiqing was speaking in an interview with monthly U.S. magazine The Atlantic two weeks before the Nov. 4 U.S. election. The euro was trading at that time between $1.30 and $1.35.....
This was a pure resistance play.. stop at be. lets see what happens.
Now..., that daily bar has potential of hitting 1.32 imho, but your short entry is where I would take some profit on long play. lol
stop at be is probably good idea.
now, now, now.. you not going to get me into overtrading
It was a very good Monday and let's keep it that way... although
.. I will be looking for a PA on cable off 4750..
Let's hit that 5330
White House, Congress near deal on auto bailout
Wednesday December 10, 7:43 am ET
By Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writers...
watch yen crosses, fiber and cable. above should push our crosses higher (imho)
discl: i may be biased since I already have open positions.
Heh me too. I've been biased for a few days now. You still in those longs?
I closed half pos. 15 min ago, rest at BE. I will have to step out for few hours, but hopefully, when I come back dow will plot 1hr pb off of 8500/8600. That's when I will buy again.
so what you're saying is if the us equities go up then the yen should weaken? therefore buy yen crosses also?
thanks
Simon
no, i'm only using them as a barometer for my trades. if speculators are buying equities, appetite can also appear for riskier currencies. not always true but it's just another tool in a box. it's worth observing different markets if you're a trader. after a while, things will jump out at you from your charts.
Ascending wedge with pin at 4H resistance. I don't like the left eye on the pin much. Basically, I would've liked to see the bulls take it a bit higher than they did.
... I've been looking for ... 1.33, later in a week....
.
You got a nice 38.2 from the last swing right there too. if it breaks out today, we're definitely seeing 1.33...
From there, it's very typical to see double bottoms come back and test the apex... then resume back up... so you could have multiple entries here if you play your cards right... depending on if you wanna wait or scale into some positions... good times.
nice, why is it taking that long...
I'm going to scale out my posts. Someone's definitely watching and testing my patience...
Patience is paying off right now, very nice.
I'm not a big fan of scaling in; I usually buy 1/3 or half at ppz or when I get a 'green' light and the rest after PA forms (it could be on any tf)
how did you jump on this beautiful trade? what was the setup?
thanks
This 4hr IB setup on Dec5, which was also coincided my own 1hr Rdb.
I was also planing to buy break of that 4hr pin, which I thought was imminent, but since some people were short, I didn't want to mess up with their trades. Others (TV) don't want to know what will happen next unless there is 100% guarantee.... this is why I never explained my train of thoughts re: fiber
btw: this is PA thread not crystal balling thread...
I have also took small losses on yen crosses. Something's up...don't know if it's shakeout or something bigger...
It's clear now...I always enjoy your posts
I'm impressed for your trade management, you are still long despite those pullbacks. This is what I would like to be good at, I need to improve this aspect
I'm glad you find them useful sometimes...
I keep trade management simple and it's really easy. Try trading two lots. Once you make 'some' pips, close one and trail second(I do it manually) behind support/resistance area. You'd be surprised after few months...
so following on from using equities as a barometer...
have you noticed the ascending wedge on the dow? So i think that means we might end up with a breakout lower. So if it is in line with the previous move down, could we see the dow at 6600?
cheers
Simon
Everything is possible here.. If auto bailout fails, this might happen. I have a mixed feeling on bailout since I got this in my mailbox from a friend (kind of disturbing). Whatever happens, I'm sure, it will be trade-able..
Yeah buddy, I shorted EUR/JPY from 122.00, short EUR/CHF from 1.5783, and long Swiss Franc against the Danish Krone, CHF/DKK from 4.7193. AUD/JPY was the nice short though, I didn't get in. The loser part about it though, is that GFT has convenetly not offering service, so I am going to have to manage by phone.
You're going to be a rich man...
I only shorted good size of eur/chf at 1.5809 and 1.5797. Flat for now.
Eur/Jpy was very temping, especially after Mike's post.....
Sometimes I wonder would this be the only thing I'll achieve in life? I am socially dumb, academically average, and a little short on finances. HUH! Never mind if i can do good on trading I will have found myself a reason to appreciate life.
I would start working on your psyche... right now, ghous!!!
If you continue to think like that (my apologies to say that), you will always be average and socially dumb. We are (or become) what we think we are.. PERIOD! It does not matter if you believe me or not... . In other words, why would you think, anything 'beyond average' should 'come' to you, if you perceive yourself 'average'?
There are some good psychology books out there... 'Freedom From The Ties That Bind' by guy finley was a good one, I once read. It was also recommended by J16
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Cannot imagine myself without trading now...is that addiction, ..... or something else...
This is no good. Do you live to trade or trade to live... ? This will make big difference in your life..
I got so many conflicting reports from "top analysts" in big banks (from diff. countries). General impression - as fundamentals don't work now, nobody's sure what will happen next. With no sense of direction, "anything can happen and probably will"
Let's say.. I wouldn't listen to any analysts unless they are on my payroll.
you may feel there is no sense of direction, but keep in mind, trading in December is always like that.. It's Christmas time and liquidity is at premium. These are times when you can make or lose a fortune...
... i am not sure if any of these guys took the trade you took. ...
I posted my setups on e/g in the PF on Friday and then executed my trades an hour or so later.
Traded a bit more that I usually do () at .8986 and added more at .8971.
Just learning, i wanted to ask that how do u determine good location for pin bar;
...
Hey Mike
I will not talk about PB you posted, but if you want to know how I see a perfect pb location, I'll throw a chart. Again this is only my opinion (others might have different views, which is fine), but I use it in my position/swing trading on top of intraday plays. Notice the location of that PB. It's off of strong price pivot and 61fib confluence. If people were patient enough to wait for these setups, this thread would have 2 or less posts per day....
You only need a handful of these setups to double your large acc in a year.. Hope this helps.
R.
Let's now extend this price pivot to the right a bit and go down to daily chart to see if we can find some good trades.... It's a trader's paradise if you know what you'll looking for....
Enjoy the rest of the weekends guys. Check your charts on higher TFs and get ready for a new week.
BTW. I don't think forex will be around when ghous gets to rusty's age, but we still have plenty of time....
...
PS:You r goooooooood man!! When i grow up i want to be like you!!
Oh no Matt.... I'm a monster ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matiasfx
i took a 4h BUOB a while ago.Went up fast and bounced a bit back down now at first PPZ.
Yes, sir....
Someone had asked before about perfect location for a PB. How about good location for Buovb? All time low, tipple test that held.... This trade will rock imho Matt, hope you manage it well.
Quiet here today. It's time to some trading . See you later in the week.
I'm not in that trade, please check post #16880
If I was..., by my rules, I'd be most likely in around 1.7490.
If you're asking how to enter according to PA rules..?
1. from 1hr tf. you'd be in on the break of a pb around 1.7580
2. from 4h tf, you'd be in on a break of buovb around 1.7667
3. from daily tf, bar hasn't closed yet. We need to wait and see what we get.
Thx for your explanation, thats what I thought. But I have some difficulties with the desicion whether it will bounce or break. Sometimes it shoots a bit further and sometimes Price doesn't touch . How do you take this decision.
If your setup doesn't work out, you move on to the next trade. It's ok to miss a trade. I don't really want to talk about my way of trading here unless it's related to PA. I honestly don't know what will hold and what will break. The secret is contained in MM and TM, the rest is only probability and nothing else.
i don't think i'll be closing a 400 pip trade if i see a pin bar on the 5M or 15M tf if i see one on the 4H it might signal something...
Amen brother, you're on your way to riches....
When I read some posts here by inexperienced, new traders, It's a sad feeling, because we know, where they headed long term......
Oh well, only 5% will will somehow make it, but within that 5, only .01% will strike it big. Many of the new faces came from different threads here to learn something new and they keep making same mistakes over and over.
Anyhow, Have a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a great New 2009. Hope there will be enough pips for everybody. I'm closing shop for 2008...
.
.
.
Pin Bar looks good. Location is at a swing Low, at PPZ level, top of the PB is above a round number, etc. Price never broke the top of the Pin Bar so the trade would have never taken place. But what if Price did break the top? Let's look at the Weekly . .
The Weekly BEOB should have you thinking that the Daily Pin Bar may be going the other way and the strength of it would be weak.
we still have some room here... don't we...
who knows....
Nice chart there Raczek and some neat trade management.
Could you explain step by step how did you plan , execute and manage this trade from the beginning?
Sure....
1st short entry @ my favorite setup (it's been shown many times in this thread)
2nd short entry @after 4hr PB hinted possible shift in speculator's view on this cross (kind of what we see with fiber on daily right now)
3. initial stop few pips above 61fib (I almost got taken out)
4. manually trail stop above daily bar's high.
5. The most important one. Do not listen to others and their views....98% out of time... they are wrong...
If I read and contemplated on every post placed recently in this thread, I would get huge headache and would probably question myself every 5secs....
Have your game plan ready. Set your stops and partial profit (to reward yourself) and execute your plan.. It's as simple as that.
This year I slowly walked away from intra-day trading (I still do it a lot) and moved towards swing trading. My next swing positions are/will be on u/j, e/j, g/j, g/chf, e/u and eur/gpb. Have a good one
It has nothing to do with feelings. I keep feelings reserved for the woman I love....
I don't pay much attention to 50 retrace (i think someone mentioned before, it's jacko stuff, but I'm no fan of that method). If we break 38 we're going down (at least that's my experience)
If you contemplate on blue rectangles, you shall find the answer to your TP1 question.
Cheers,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by byorkFX
Raczekfx,
I wish I had the confidence to stay in the trades as long as you do. I've looked around and didn't seem to see this asked, but please forgive me if it has been. Can I ask why you have your TP1 point marked where it is (EUR/CHF) and not up by the 50.0 retrace on your chart (sorry to go back so many posts with the chart). I know that part of this is just having a good feeling for the markets and price action (experience), but I had my TP1 marked around the 50.0 point on the chart since it was the 50% and there were bar highs sitting...
I have a question abt your Eur/chf trade though. ..What convinced you that the daily is gonna close the way it did?
...
What i know off is that this is what is often termed "one of the biggest mistakes of a trader" that he wants to anticipate something to happen in future for which he acts in the present I am obviously not saying that you are making a mistake (how dare i! ), i am just curious how you get out of this?
I haven't changed my long term trading method in almost two years. It's all in this thread.
This is not jankone's 5min style, so it's probably boring for many of you, but it works for me..
Ok I had one more question, I am new to NOn-fx marlets like the US stock indices (The S&P, DOW etc) how do you correlate them, in one of your posts above i saw you mentioening that the S&P will affect the $ and the Yen? The $ is understandable (stronger stock markets stronger currency) but why the yen, and is the corelation inverse or direct?
it's hard to explain in few words; best way is to have all charts of interest on your screen at all times and observe how one affects another. This is what I did for few years and now they make sense (sometimes). To really simplify the answer, I'll take a shortcut ... You can look at the sp and dow as a barometer for 'carry trades'. If those go up, speculators must feel good about economy in general. What happens next...? More speculators will feel good about putting their money in riskier crosses (yen as an e.g.) At the same time BOJ will add fuel to a fire and start selling yen (don't forget Japan without export will not exist, so in their best interest is to keep yen weak). They play their own little game with speculators and unless you traded yen for few years, their action will not make sense. That's why is better(read safer) to stick to PA and don't pay attention to correlation. I'll give you a little hint here anyways...., I will never go long on yen crosses when Dow or SP approaches resistance with some kind of confluence, I might go short instead without waiting for PA..
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
..Funny how this all looks like you are reading tea leaves to many - until they start a practice of it. Then it is like an open book.
My younger brother used to think the same and.... two weeks ago he finally quit his career to become a trader.
For some it will take few months to see big foot prints. For some it will take years.., some will never see them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TradeStar
One more question:
1.5540 happens to be the resistence point on the previous leg and roughly same as 23% retracement. Any reason why this was not your first Take profit area.
5540 is also a daily price pivot, but I tend to put more weight to areas between 38-50 and 50-61. I guess different strokes for different folks plays a role here...
If you must trade, it looks like a valid setup for a short. Fib 61 with minor ppz. However, watch the 38.2 area with bar highs. I am personally biased short being this daily pin has not been invalidated. When ~1.4720 is broke cleanly, then I would consider longs and even then I would be hesitant.
This 'small' setup will bring fiber to 1.20 in months (weeks) to come...
Just an opinion off course...
I`m just a bit weary about this trendline which refuses to break...yet
I'm weary about the state of EU economy..., which is not what trichet wishes it to be....
There is absolutely no reason to stop rates at 2% today and once they will be forced to cut it again, when no one anticipates it..... (kaboom.. and welcome 1.11)
My final tp was hit, so I'm flat for the moment. If it wasn't for the the 'slow season', I'd probably reversed at that tp. Now it's a waiting game, but I tend to think we're going up to old tp1 from here..
.. also looking at g/chf
With the exception of the gbp/chf comment, I was about to post an almost identical post in response to Hips. LOL
Out with limit at 1.4810. Has been a nice easy trade to manage over the holiday. Text book.
LOL.. if all of them were that easy to manage, trading would be much simpler.. I'm 'envy' of my trading buddy, he was in the same trade (with almost identical entry/tps - what the skype is for..lol), but he trades much, much 'heavier' at $30/ps. One day.... one day.... we'll get there.
I'm still waiting for xxx/jpy...., c'mon boj, we know you have your fingers on the button... just press it..
I found this one good setup for going long. I would like to see the current bar close on the upper half at least, strong bullish sign.
not sure if that would be a strong bull sign. It would be just an Ibar. Right now price is between my short, daily TPs and will probably stay there for some time. From a 'micro' point of view, an hourly pb is still valid and a second test (blue rect) of tp2 would be a trigger for my long entry, should I chose to trade in the early EST hours.
The BEOB is at a swing high, with a double top and heavily loaded with divergence on the daily as well as the weekly (refer to Raczekfx's post a few posts back) IMO currntly the best setup on the higher tfs
..
Regards
Ghous.
Nice post ghous..
I have a NewYear present for you.
I shorted eurcad yesterday (It's hard not to trade when something comes to you on a golden plate...lol) and created quick video briefly explaining my thought process.
If interested, you can watch it HERE... I'll keep it there for few days.
Cheers and have a great and pipping 2009 all!
.
Very good video Raczek. Hope to see more of these next year. I'd really like to know how do you spread the risk on those trades. How much do you risk on short daytrades and those longer ones?
Np Gh, Carl,
For risky trades (no pa confirmation, confluence, crystal ball in repair shop, etc) I keep initial stop below/above swing high and risk 1%. For good probability trades (last daily PB on us/cad at a triple top, e/chf short on Dec16 at solid ppz, fibs, emas, etc. confluence) rule for the stop is the same, but I may use 3 and sometimes 5% risk
GBPCHF--> IB, why did you enter before the brake of High of IB (left bar)? I thought right bar must brake left bar and IB's high to be a valid set up???
I entered on a break of 4-4hr bar consolidation with sl few pips below them
Quote:
Originally Posted by trujillo1980
EURGBP--> DBH, Can you explain why did you enter here please?
Thank you...
similar situation as explained in my eucad video but on a micro scale (4hr). You should notice divergence, bar consolidation and inability of breaking .98 level. Add to it what I said about euro (video) and you have a action plan ready. The rest is psychology and MM
I took my Gbp/chf trade somewhere around where you took it, and since you're a master at money managment perhaps you can assist me with this typical case.
The trade went on close to +250, I know you booked your profits earlier than this But I planned on my first Tp as the 1.62 level based entirely off the daily.
What happened here was on seeing a retracment from +250 i moved my stop to breakeven (hod to re-enter off the 4H Pb) and obviosuly got stopped out.
......
There is never one answer that is right and I'm not inside your head, so I could be wrong, but I'll try.
1. Rule of thumb is that if you enter on 4hr you should exit on 4hr. By that rule my initial stop would be around 1.5150 (entry 1.5340) and I would be out 1.57. To be more precise, I'd be out of half at 57 and would most likely move my stop just below 4hr bar prior my entry.
Having said all that, I'm haven't book any profit on this trade just yet as I'm treating this as a swing trade with potential of 2000 pips. That's right, 2000 over the next 4 weeks or so. Would I be able to make those pips by trading 5min charts and look for divergence and pins on them? Off course not, but I don't want to argue here about nonsense of chasing 20pips per trade, even if you get to a point where you're able to trade $1000pips per point. Simple math and logic should tell you what path to take.
2. You have taken a trade during a time where PA doesn't always make sense and often large price swings will shake people off their trades before they come back from their trip to a washroom.
3. I recall from my experience that after taking a trade on 4hr chart, I would go back and read some posts with 1hr or 15min charts showing opposite setups and I would question my 4hr entry. Never do this if you want to stay sane. I would only do that if price is ranging between two ppzs and price is approaching one of the boundaries. To simplify: If you took g/chf on daily and I'm writing some nonsense on FF with 4hr chart, don't even bother reading it...
I see...So much learning to see this stuff like you master see.
lol. you guys....
You are all masters of your own destiny and don't even know that. Once you realize that, quite a few light bulbs will be turned on
The key to your own success is in you and NOT with us...
Any of you watch pin at 4H GBP/USD??? The tested kinda low on the next bars.. But it remains strong..
We shall see BEOVB if anything works well than..
I was long on the close of that 4hr bar last night. Price moved 100ps in favor (exactly where pf'ers would expect it to stop), but never reached my extended tp. Closed it at BE for now..
Bias: long unless 4350 gives up
If weekly bar breaks, I'll add to it and will be treating this trade as a swing trade with targets as shown....
.
g/chf
Price hit turbulence area, (where some could take nice profit) and will probably stay there for some time, unless cable decides to shoot up....
Some could expect for price to move back to 5810/5910 area before marching higher. We shall see... I'm very happy with overnight move...!
eu/cad
so far, so good. Price stopped 100ps shy of tp1 from my previous posts..
Nice move since short setup triggered.... exactly 900ps
I think that's it from me for today... my older son wants to see pianos...
Looks like the turbulence on the Gbp/Chf is clearing up rapidly
you can only smile when things exceed your expectations...
daily bar worth 700ps..., not bad, time to move stops or take some profit...
I don't see it clearing 6280 today.
Even my g/u target was hit (without me as I closed it this morning)
E/Cad just hit TP1... what a good way to start the new year, 1100 ps in 3 days (not counting sunday bar).
And I still remember when I was chasing 25ps per trade.. that was stressful
taking profit is never a bad idea and yes I am smiling. BTW The e/cad trade I'm looking for a retrace of the move to tp1 to add. 09 is coming in fine as wine.
Seeing the magnitude of this move, I wouldn't count on it. If what I'm hearing about fiber is true, we get to tp2 much sooner that I had on drawing board...
For my futher trades, what should I do? For example if I open a position based on an daily chart, how can I manage it? looking dailys, 4H, weekly or montly or combinations of them?
Short answer is: I don't know, I'm not you.
I wouldn't want to turn this discussion into a trading course. No time, no place for this on an open and public forum....
Trades I'm posting from time to time are for illustration/entertainment purposes only. Some people might get inspired and something clicks,... that's great.
As arcus already mentioned, the topic has been covered here many times.
Monthly support is stronger than weekly, weekly than daily and so on. Think how can you use that information to benefit your trading. The easiest way is to go into a trade on PA and exit on opposite PA and not TPs.
What people seem to forget is that james16chart thread is not a system. It is a method. You WILL have to do some work here and come up with your own system using j16 method. This is what I did, but since it's not based on 'clean' PA entries, I have no plans/nor want to mess this thread up.
Best of luck trujillo with your journey. Patience and hard work should pay off sooner or later, but it has to be YOUR OWN work.
Anyone still in the G/C???? I'm still 1/2 in. Coming up to a PPZ, not sure if it can go more. 1.6000 has been broken and I'm thinking 1.7525 is the next stop if it breaks 1.6720 ish area...
Off course, there is absolutely no reason we should not hit that TP1 now. We have cleared Dec21 weekly bar... . It's just a matter of time. Would I be entering now? Probably not..
I was just thinking about adding to my position then I read this. You say you wouldn't be entering now, is that because it has moved so much with little retrace? If price has a shot at the 1.92 level, we are talking almost 2500 pips from where we are now. For me, I'd risk a few hundred pips for a few thousand. I'll keep watching the charts and see if there is pull back and with some PA signals long. Unless there is a blaring reason not to, or I'm making an obvious mistake, anyone please feel free to comment. Here to learn and grow.
wouldn't that feel like buying the top right now? It's ok to miss a trade or lose a trade, but It's not ok to lose a trade on feelings and greed.
Even though price might eventually hit 1.74, it might also reverse 500ps or so, taking out all the little guys like us. That's why you always need to have a plan to scale in and out, and follow it.
Below is an example of two of my plans for scaling in, once I determine short/long term trend.
1. add on break outs (more aggressive-red arrows)
2. add on after breakouts and retest (conservative-red arrows in squares)
As you probably noticed on the chart, using conservative approach, I'd only add once and by using breakout method (whatever tf you like), I'd have 4 positions running.
Different styles suit different personalities, but you still must have a plan. Without it, it would be chaos trading..
Hope this helps..
Here is one that we can chew the fat on. I have an 2 entries short at 138.85. My SL is 140.95. The thick horizontal yellow line is the daily PPZ. The green horizontal lines are the 4HR PPZ's. I am using about half the usual equity risk as I would have rather had the PB nose climb slightly higher. However, I do like the fact that the PB printed right at the 100% fib on the daily for retracement after the ride up for a couple of days. This might be the only chance to short before this pair moves north with a vengence.
I really would like g/j to test 135 (orange line)before marching higher, but for some reason, I'm thinking, we might hit 144/46 first..
Very good video Raczek. Hope to see more of these next year. I'd really like to know how do you spread the risk on those trades. How much do you risk on short daytrades and those longer ones?
I have updated this trade.
It's probably the last vid. for a while, I post on the public forum. Sorry.. getting busy lately ..
That is one gem of a video rac - thanks for sharing your insight. With yr postings and video here and in the private forum looking for breakout set ups (plus for me using MACD for divergence)and the power of price action have made this all make sense. As jim says these opportunities are all over just watch and wait for those sniper set ups to appear. Whilst posting respect and appreciation to jim, ghous, jaroo and mike etc. what goes round......
Np leis... thanks guys.
PA with divergence is very powerful, add confluence..... and you only have to trade few times a year.
This was the reason for posting my live, longer term (few days..lol) trades on this forum. Hopefully, it will get some people on a proper track and gives them something to look forward to.
(general comment for new traders only, below)
5min charts are good for pros only; you can make lot's of quick money when you know what your doing and your pip value is $100 or so, but when I see new traders trying to beat the market on that tf, It's like seeing fish on the bottom of a dry lake. Your money supply will dry up very quickly, trust me. But what the heck... it's your money, life and future, do whatever you want with it. Life is a learning journey...
uc
updated chart from yesterday...
even without pa one can trade successfully knowing where support and resistance is... .It takes time and practice, but, what does not?
I closed mine after the break of the 4H trendline. May consider a re-entry if we see a test of 1.385
Regards,
Ghous.
I did 3/4 of mine in my favorite rectangle from post #18091
Same area acted as short term longs.
don't count much on fireworks before nf. I would rather expect gradual decline on us crosses till 8:30est tomorrow...
We will see, I watched that too, but did not pull it. Many pips to you if it runs.
Same to you D... I 'almost' bought cable 1.5045, right after the rate annc....
This is what happens when you make vids, answer emails and trade at the same time. I lost focus...., BUT there will be plenty of more...
looks like a chance to add to your short on the eurcad ????
BEOB off daily PPZ and 38 fib
or are you expecting it to go higher yet?
don't really know. I trade $cad crosses in conjunction with oil and the latter is not showing any strength yet..... If price doesn't gets any higher and we'll get daily pb on eucad, I'll draft an action plan.
Raczek, if I may ask you. What made you entered on this one? (Not the initial entry, but the sell stop.) If I guess, break of PPZ (weekly and monthly PPZ)? Thanks!
you will sell a pulback of this ppz with sl at the top of the pb?
thanks in advance.
no, pure break
Quote:
Originally Posted by djambazov84
Hey racz,
If you dont mind me asking you this question as I am also in the E/U trade.
What do you think about an eventual reversal during London session as it happens all the time ...
I no longer let my brain interfering with my trading. When I used to think, I was only able to make 20-30pips/per move. THINKING KILLS traders.
You'll never finish questioning yourself.
I wait for a setup, take a trade, set my stops and let the trade flow....
For setup/targets on my e/u trade please refer to post #18091
did you wait today's news to enter long usdjpy? You showed us the signal yesterday
i don't recall showing you any signals .
today was a buy limit @ 90.65 triggered in early morning. half pos were intra day longs, closed when u/j hit res. @91.50. rest at BE, as I don't like the shape of weekly bar...
have a good weekend. I'm heading out to hit the slopes..
silly question, but the weekly, buob nullify the pinbar 2 week ago right?
and this week is just a retrace of the buob of last week and PA is telling it to go north with SL below that purple line you draw?
Not sure if it does or not, I simply was looking for a retrace of that weekly BUbar, hence the short trade. Purple line is just a daily ppz.
We could start getting higher lows and higher highs, or price could take a short break around 50/61 before going lower. We'll find out in the next few days. Nothing is a given....
another 'horse' has come home
It took some time, but the end results is what we're looking for.
(PA+psychology+strong desire to learn and succeed + long TF) = $ in your account.
I caught 129.40. Two pips better then last time. I getting better. lol
That's because you spend too much time typing here...
I posted my entries in the pf.
Perhaps we should exchange IMs, so one of us can watch the charts and singal...
Question for ya, Rac. A bullish outside bar has already formed on dollar/yen. Given the pin on the dow, a break of the pin higher would typically yield strength in the dollar/yen. Would you consider going long on the next daily candle to be risky? Or would you wait for what will be today's high to form then go long above that?
Also, where do you get your dow charts?
well, I'm already in g/j, g/u, e/j and u/j from the bottom of today's swing low (recorded in the pf), but I will consider adding more when proper PA forms.
fxpro - strictly for charting on FF
...
About this GY trade, would you mind clarifying to me why did you bet on a
I created short video describing my thought process behind that trade, but only sent it to few close friends. Trading that way can do more harm than good to new traders hence my hesitation about making it public.
But here are some things to think about while looking at this g/j trade.
Earlier this morning I posted dow's future chart showing very important (imo) resistance level. No one asked about it, so I never bothered explaining , what I was going to do about it...
Have you caught my pb on ucad, I posted yesterday ? I also hinted Dow's daily pinbar today .
If someone can read between the lines, he/she would've seen me betting on $ weakness starting today.
Simply saying, cable gets stronger, dow stops bleeding, geppy goes up.
Guys trading is an art, but it's also fun. I haven't met many poeple on my path, who would appreaciate things, they received on a golden plate. If you watch a good chef and then you prepare your own meals, don't they taste better than TVdinners...?
"...Chasing Livermore..." reminiscences... is a great book full of tips
Appologies for being too cryptic for some..
allright rac this worship stuff is just way to much so i gotta come clean.
truth is rac's entries come from me via email.
sorry rac but my ego just couldnt take it anymore.
Fine, cover has been blown...
The story is: I was stocking James for two years... cleaning his house, cooking meals, taking dogs out and all I could see, was a closed door to his office with a big sign "trading in progress, no entry for rac"
The break through came about a year ago, when he allowed me to synch his PCs with mine. Ever since, whenever he trades, the very same trades are automatically opened on my platform. All I do is watch and post on FF
uj,
daily break out, retrace to price pivot, pin on 1hr, Kabooom... up
Confidence comes with practice, practice and practice. If you're wrong, you're wrong. That's what the stops are for....
Now let's all of us push that dow, so we can close at least 30-60 pips on the plus side and send that yen when it belongs....
Anyone thinking of taking U/J or E/J weekly pins if they break? Or anyone stalking other trades on the weeklies? There were some great A+ trades on weeklies last week, so I am looking at them with renewed enthusiasm! Am trying to develop my discipline so have no traded today yet as no A+ setups on my charts - this is a positive step in my development!
Good trading all,
berti
if you're talking about long then yes. I just closed my my intraday shorts since (sunday gap open) on e/j, g/j and looking for a sign of exhaustion to go long uj, ej, gj and gu again
I'm not sure what a tml is but here's what i see..
a triple top, price exhaustion (for bertie) at the top (short trade from last night)... a beauty...
you can throw mac-d to add to your confidence....(what do you see?)
Here is a pic of the U/J pair. I'm not saying is a great pin to play (just a picture for an example to work off of), I'm more interested in how to analyze the gap up and subsequent move down and if the move up breaking the Pin Bar would still be play with J16 rules /
guidelines
.
this is how I see it and/or play it or at least plan for it.
Last week: price breaks a daily ppz and tests it twice (retraces back to it)
Sunday: price gaps, but is unable to hold grounds and retraces back to it.(triple bottom at ppz?)
Tomorrow: obama gets inaugurated. people/traders look at positives and hope for new beginning. Dow rallies. If UJ breaks higher, it hits 91.70, slows down at 94 and eventually at 97.
Whatever happens it's wise to have stops in place. Mine is at 89.60 at the moment.
I'd consider this pin in traffic, despite its shape looking pretty good. Because of the areas it was gonna run into as soon as it broke.
I don't consider it being in traffic. But even if someone considered its shape looking good, you'd have to note that its open and close were below broken ppz, hence chances of it work out (evenif it broke to the upside) were slim.
I don't consider it being in traffic. But even if someone considered its shape looking good, you'd have to note that its open and close were below broken ppz, hence chances of it work out (evenif it broke to the upside) were slim.
exactly the same scenario with g/j. Should that pin's opened and close was above purple line, we'd be probably testing 130 right now...
Hi Rec,
Nice entry. I see the divergence. But I have not seen a pin bar to trigger this reversal. Don't dare to since I was burnt yesterday. Can you explain your entry based on what trigger and the target? Thanks.
not sure if that was nice entry, but regardless it was part of a plan, which is based on aggressive method taking long term ppzs into consideration. If we get 4hr pb, I'll add it on its 'up-break' and the first logical target will be 1.4370 (ppz)
Don't understand the GBP/JPY crystal ball man. Other than your reasoning before on everyone loving obama and realising what a bargain the yen is..
Love to hear some more on that if you've got a minute to divulge?
not exactly. I trade yen crosses together with us based crosses.
To really simplify the answer I will say that if I get a go on cable and 'price in' equity direction/move, I will also trade pound/yen.
ps. funny, out of about 50 PMs, almost 90% of 'respondents' didn't understand it either... .
I hope we get 4hr pb on g/j. I'll add more...
for years those of us that have been stockpiling food and ways to protect our families in case of a worst case scenario have been called every name in the book. i hope that day never comes and that all of my stockpiles are wasted money...truly i do...but im prepared and thats all that matters to me.
jim
It would be scary time, if it ever had to use it.
Perhaps it's time to buy some property far away.. Australia, NZ...?
..also looking for a fiber to start appreciating (and perhaps reversing its down trend) from that weekly ppz.
I have some new commitments here in the north pole.. so I won't be able to post as much for some time...
Trade wisely...
We have the 1.4 ofcaorse and along side it are two matching highs...should take some breaking...
Right, it's a third test so anything is possible, but if it was fourth, I would gamble on its holding up...
Observation, practice, repetition... That's how we learn and develop proper mind set...
It's time to sit back, relax and enjoy yen , getting weaker and weaker..... I wonder if we get any shakeout first
Wanted to get an idea of what the number of currency pairs the average trader will follow.
22 plus 8 comod plus equity indexes. This is crucial for me to make my systems work, especially around ppzs...
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinceMeat
Additionally:
-How many currency pairs should someone relatively new to Forex be following?
Cheers
MM
IMO only ONE.
Pick one from the majors and get good at it, understand its characteristics and behavior, then few month later add another major.... and do the same thing.
Trading/watching many currencies if you're just starting out, can lead to 'confusion' and accounts 'dismissal'
In the past I was involved with a group of new traders and when such setups (A setups) occurred on 6 pairs (it happens quite often), 8 of them lost their small accounts in a day....
Two of the survivor picked the best looking setup and used 5%. The rest felt so confident, they took all setups with about 5% each. Nothing goes straight up, so you can imagine what happened on the first retrace when when initial stops were not moved yet...
I haven't met one new trader yet, who would understand that this is not get rich scheme and even the A trades fail.
Welcome to the beautiful and the least understood world of MM...
Closing above dw4 ppz, can be considered positive sign for e/j imo.
I would cautiously start looking for setups, with 122 in sight...
.
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
If I may ask you, at which point do you start to change your stop to BE? Is it at minor PPZ marked by the orange line? I assume your entry would be somewhere on the line (touch entry). Thanks!
It depends on the account I'm trading. On the larger account I usually take half off quickly (30-50ps) and move stop to be+1 at the time. On smaller acc, I hide my stops below/above PA setups and ppz and let the trade breathe.
My initial entry was 10bars to the left on the break of the IB. I closed some pos. at 117.80 yesterday (this was luck; I had to leave for 2 hours) and added more in asia around 117 with all stops @ 115.70. Later on I changed my mind (no action at Tokyo open) and decided to hedge positions (removed stops) when price slipped to 116. 40. Closed short leg of a hedge at 115.80 and half of long positions again at 117.70 (an hour ago). Now I'm only long with stops at 116.60 (about 20ps below 4hr ppz). Hope it made sense..
.
.
Last edited by raczekfx, Feb 6, 2009 1:16pm
Reason: error in price exit on short hedge leg.
I am trying to understand the way you entered the last BUOB on EJ.
As fas as I understand, you didn't trade on the break but more on the retrace to the MA.
Is that true? Do you always trade this way, or do you trade on the break sometimes?
Which MA is it?
Cheers
I only care about ppzs (S/Rs), PA and fibs, nothing else. I was in the trade before buovb (my previous post), so buovb kind of brought a smile on my face..
.
.
Last edited by raczekfx, Feb 6, 2009 2:05pm
Reason: s/r
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
not going to keep it over the weekend, even though we might get a nice gap.
119.60 is good enough for now. Flat ..
I actually anticipate a retrace on the 4hr toward the 118/117.50 area and then a bounce towards 122. As it looks like there's a ppz on the 4h around that area. Or are my eyes deceiving me?
that would be very nice
..but if you have a look at fiber, it appears like 'kind of' triple bottom in the making on daily. It almost looks like it's preparing to fly to 134.50 or something. Market is getting flooded with $$$ right now, hence I'm looking forward to the next week...
Yup. I drastic move on U/J, E/J, and E/U. I haven't done trading my live acc. for 2 weeks now, not in the mood lol Just been doing demo with J16 stuff. Any ideas why the sudden whipsaw? ....
Bulls trap, leakage of the plan? "Financial Stability Plan: Deploying our Full Arsenal to Attack the Credit Crisis on All Fronts. Today, our nation faces the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. It is a crisis of confidence, of capital, of credit, and of consumer and business demand..."
Language like that adds to volatility and confuses the heck out of investors.
That's why it's best to sit on the sideline or trade PAs near important ppz only and close to your chest.
PA is generous with tips....
..currently short e/j, u/j, g/j.
will close half when dow futures hit get close to 7800.
will close the rest and look for longs when dj futures approach 7500 (if?)
.
Arcus,
Are you still considering this one? It looks pretty good to me,
...
I was waiting for someone to comment on g/chf since we hit Tp1 yesterday.
Wonder if anyone caught a PA off that weekly G line...?
SRs are GOLD, especially on the first approach...
I know at least a couple of you here trade at $100/ps. Congrats on your 600 free fall.. :-)
I'd be in a celebration mood, if it wasn't for $9.7 trillion rescue package, our children and their grandchildren have to live with.... Scary, very scary times....Time to move to NZ?
.
.... So, you would take the PB even the size considered small (might be OK for you) given the location of the PB is superb (Weekly PPZ, that's why superb lol)? ....
Absolutely!!! Location, location!!!
I live and breathe SRs....
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
Mark, my wife (American), just the other day asked that que.. Do you think we should move back to Oz.. I would love to but she will miss her family too much I think.
If it wasn't for the snakes (I hate snakes... must've been swallowed by a python in my previous life....), I would.
You mentioned about the SRs are gold especially on the first touch. Do you mean that they usually fail to break the resistance (based on the weekly chart) on first try? .
I don't want to generalize them, since I'm very picky when it comes to what I trade, but from my experience they hold 9 times out of 10. The better homework you do, the better chances you will have.... the rest is in your head, regardless of what people will tell you...
There is lots of garbage floating around on the net. If you stick to long term SRs (plus pa), in about year or two, you won't have anything to talk about on FF... That's how simple it is...
It's the people, who tend to complicate things beyond simplicity...
Is this a raczek type trade? ... Keep your stop loss small.
..
that one was only good for 100ps (58.65 :-))
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
..currently short e/j, u/j, g/j.
will close half when dow futures hit get close to 7800.
will close the rest and look for longs when dj futures approach 7500 (if?)
.
closed everything on a second test of 7800 and... reversed
...but only with a couple best looking.
We now need some PA to reach limits..., PA tomorrow ? It would depend on DJ imho
.
.
We now need some PA to reach limits..., PA tomorrow ? It would depend on DJ imho
.
.
e/j, dj - daily pins? we'll see.
It's worth waiting and saving your capital for days like today
Could it be reversal on dow and e/j? let's see.
If interested, here is a little doc with my today's trades (aggressive, yet planned very carefully).
Dow closed above ppz, so I will look forward for dozens PA entries from a daily perspective.
Just cause I know Mark is busy & he cant catch them all.
One that i managed to catch this arvo..
stop @ be.
lol... funny you mentioned that Jeff, cause it was very tempting, but using 6% of my account would not be wise , so I had to prioritize and picked the runner instead ... (read: yen)
Thanks for sharing, Rac. I don't post much around here but I'm an avid J16 fan and your posts and always enlightening. I'm starting to think the way you and some others like RustyJeff do in taking trades as they fall into support/resistance, rather then waiting for a break of this trend line or that bar or whatever.
Once again, thanks for sharing. Really appreciate it.
-G550
welcome G550
that's correct, but the hardest job is to find SRs, which will have the greatest probability to survive the ambush and setting the stop accordingly. I'm still working on it...
Hi rac.... got a beautiful entry on an ib stalling on a ppz.... it wasn't easy but i waited over 400 pips to take some of the table, the rest is already locked with profit.
Observing and using ppzs religiously is definitely paying off.
So you see a retrace coming, fair enough. So where are you shorting?
From the area where price was sitting, when I said "time to take profit..." in my previous post.
I could've said "and reverse.." but it would sound, I'm running signals here..
What do you think is happening with the yen - DJ correlation? you entered long Gj but DJ is very much down, I am long EJ, Uj and Gj (demo) and was worrying abt the DJ drop, but it is'nt really pulling any of these crosses with it...
Regards,
Ghous.
I missed my entry... due to ..., hence I entered on 1hr buov PA.
Normally I would've been in around 129.80, 115.80
I don't see dj (futures) breaking 7420, at least yen crosses telling me about strong bounce coming (at least for time being) we shall see.
It's times like today where fortunes are made and/or lost...
Humor aside the test of the final pair of lows, was on the cards, the break of 8000 which should really have been the level to push DJ to the moon (am i breaking copyright laws jarroo? ) has really gone against anticipation, would you bet on a hold this time Rac? ...
I don't know, but I'm praying it will. Civil wars are not a good thing...
I don't know, but I'm praying it will. Civil wars are not a good thing...
bought following when dow futures hit 7460 sr
long ej 116.88
long gj 132.20
long chf/j 79.20
next obstacle is bernarke at 1
if market likes what he's got to say. we should get nice run up on yen crosses if not, we get stop out at be+1 and move on...
.
Mark(raczefx) is a support and resistance trader. He also uses the heavy correlations(especially as of late), from the DOW as a leading indicator.
Simply DOW rises carry pairs rise( xxx/jpy). So when he saw the DOW hit the last line of support so to speak hoping for a bounce, he uses that to help trade his other pairs, as they will follow
Mike
Thanks Mike... you beat me to it. That's exactly what I do in this market conditions and usually I add the next day when PA forms. Don't know why it works like this, but it worked 90% out of time for the last 6-8 months or so and I've been taking advantage of it. Not sure what j16 free video covered, but in a full version of that video, if you listened carefully James mentioned 'blind' entry...
If you told you who he is ...and the feds, many people would be offended, so I stop right here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Haha!
Off go my Uj, Ej and Gj longs...
BTW I had to google this Bernanke word you put in that post Mark, he's some kind of a ecnomist right, did he give off some speech that resulted in the push on the yen crossess?
Regards,
Ghous.
btw. I'm flat for now with limit orders waiting.... from another thread (kind of my journal):
another opportunity I saw last night. Do we get a two-day PB? It would certainly be very nice.
polish bureaucrats were also talking about intervention... R+O+F+L+O+L
they don't have any reserves to do that, but the word is out and doing some psychological damage to speculators. It might be a great trade after all.
.
Yep , my home currency is really beaten up now which make me feel somehow happy about it becouse soon im going back to Poland and exchange all the pounds i have earned here in UK. Look at the GBP/PLN. I manage to short it @ 5.00 with fib 50% confluence and then bought breakout>>retest. Now it is at strong long term resistance. Hope it want go much lower ;].
Good luck with that and here is my present for you....
I'm sure you're interested in this index.....
I bet it's very quick and good money to be made here....
..
Nice to see some hint of support for the DJ at 7500 Mark, eh?
every consecutive test will add one nail to your coffin.....(if you take it)
but on a more serious note, I still have positions open since 2PM est yesterday (ej, gj, aj and chf/j) , so all I have to do is to manage them properly. I took half off around the double tops, but I think we'll be breaking those tops soon... unless dj breaks first...
So you got out, let it fall a bit, and got back in with limits yesterday afternoon? Nice work Rac. You have truly honed in on S/R. Keep posting, as you are an inspiration to us newbies to what we want to be doing someday.
Josh
yes, not with limits (price didn't get that low), but with market Os. I wouldn't really pay too much attention to my posts if I was a newbie, unless I wanted to see (and practice on demo) what price is doing once it hits good SR. My posts are geared towards PA traders who were struggling with PA like I was (it had to do with patience in my case) and are looking for an extra tool or some edge if you will. I used to be stopped out at BE way too many times and it was frustrating experience.... hence my extra effort in R&D of SRs
Sounds good and understood. LOL - yes always R&D... keeps us progressing, refining, enhancing...
Watch out below. Just ruined the TBL on daily ESH9... ah well, now we might have a BEOB (just watching)
Josh
Beovb are best to be taken when they occur at swing high and vice versa. We want to see buovb at swing low...
Beovb at swing low might be a costly one.
.
USDPLN daily PIN. The spread is little bigger but PIN and location look splendid and I like that it is with the trend. Do you trade this pair?
Similar formation is on EURPLN.
Good luck with that and here is my present for you....
I'm sure you're interested in this index.....
I bet it's very quick and good money to be made here....
..
Learned from the best Texan in here ... Didn't asked many questions, but watched videos, practiced, built confidence, practiced some more, added couple extra tricks from my own R&D and that's the end of the book....
History likes to repeat itself time after time after time, but not everyone likes history....
Nice trade Rac. 1 question, if you trade on the lower TF, the PPZ you draw is based on that TF or higher TF?
I would still have daily/weekly on, but add ppz for that tf to have a visual reference where price could encounter hiccups.
Quote:
Originally Posted by giusepp8
...
I feel too proud to say i made some trades as you showed on some of your posts, .. proud because they all came from my personal R&D but surely your posts pushed me to go deep into S&R (obviously complemented with PA).. i feel like i'm geting a personal edge on trading .... the only thing I blame is all the time that took me to get here to find out how trading can be unbelievably simple and fun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikki
Do you use too WIG20 to trade USDPLN?
no, index itself.
It could be Ecuador's Index or nikkei or anything else. I started trading foreign indexes (without much knowledge of the country's economy) based solely on DJ index. DJ acts as a barometer for every other index in a 'normal' country in the world. When I expect dj to hit resistance and bounce off it, I can safely play any index in the world. Just check next Monday major world's indexes. They will all be in the green 200-300ps.
The trick is to know when to pull the trigger, since most of the stock exchanges in the world are already closed...
I'm not going to go into details on this subject, but I thought some folks here might use this information to DEMO indexes...
Again R&D plus 15min glance at charts at the end of the trading day can be very rewarding.... for some...
if i may..
Jeff is waiting for futures to retrace to certain point to go long or add more to his longs on fiber, cable, kiwi, aussie and some yen crosses. I'll throw a chart later tonight if I find time..
G.. guys, you're really kill that 1hr TF here...
may I ask, what pairs are related to DJ futures that you were posting before?
Would like to know to do my own RD...
for now I'm seeing and taking advantage of e/j and g/j.
Markets constantly evolve, so this will change in the future for sure but we as smart and observant traders will adjust our strategies as well..
if this buovb off 4hr ppz is trying to say anything perhaps the next station will be 119.60 and then 122...
anyhow.. stops at BE+, it's friday and time to wind down, relax with something good... Have a good one
.
Came short 6ps of 122... I'm sorry for this margin of error...
If we get a bounce in equities, it could be easily hit tonight. Let's watch it.
DAMN! I hate to be absent from pc during times like these Mark, I've hardly traded voodoo this week been very very busy,
Things are obviosuly looking good though, Even on demo I would'nt want to destroy the wonderful beginning and will be on the sidelines for a while till i can rearrange my routine a bit.
Regards,
Ghous.
Capital preservation is important.. you have plenty of time....
Now, dj hit 11year low. It's time for me to do some gambling...
.
Rac,
are you planning on Shorting the yen and whats is the correlation between dj and the yen pairs?Thanks
ayour2a
no, not in this market..
you don't short yen crosses when dow is at 11year low..lol... Unless you're thinking shorting yen itself? If so, then, that's ok.
I wanted to add e/j and buy g/j as well as eu, nu and au.
Yen crosses worked very well but the rest lagging behind. Anyhow stops are at be with some profit already booked...
.
I passed on the same EURUSD trade you took on the 4H chart due to the time of day. It was during the Asian session, and I decided to pass (which looks to have cost me a good trade).
Do you normally look to trade the 4H chart during the Asian session if the right set-up occurs, or was this a mix of the a good trade and riding the Weekly Pin bar retrace?
Thank you for your help!
I know many traders stay away from asia sessions but for me time doesn't matter. I trade whenever I see an opportunity or expect some action and to be honest late asia was very generous for me for the last few years, especially yen crosses.
For the E/U trade, the current bar from your chart has already turned into PB. From what I see, the PB is off PPZ. How do you manage this trade? I mean when you are targeting for higher PPZ the price will reach, and you got contradicting PA to go short. I usually changed my SL to the bottom of the new PB but I found by doing this way, I usually got stopped out and price continues north. So, how do you handle this sort of situation? Thanks rac.
by using targets and moving stops to Be+some on the remainder.
in this case my TP was 2790, the rest is at be, and I'll check every 4hr to see if I can move it higher. I wouldn't mind if it hit 2950...we'll see.
Can I ask for learning purposes what led you to buy these? So hopefully in the future, I can do the same
sure,
e/j is self explanatory if you look at its weekly chart.
with g/j, it was a pull a pull back to a daily pin on feb 17th. cable was gaining strength and feds stated they're extending the currency swap facilities and issuing more USD to worlds central banks. In such case, all you really need to do to complete your puzzle, is appreciating equities, so you can buy and hold yen crosses. There is only one direction they will go.
ps: just read your post again.... I would advise if I may, that you change your wording to something like: I am trading alike or I'm a very profitable trader ; instead of "...hopefully in the future.....
i looked at the wkly chart for this & all i see is price consolidation. did you just take the break of the wkly high above 120.33?
initial break - closed at the break of 4hr pb. and then almost 'blind' entry on pullback to previous break out area
Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
may i please ask what your source for this was? how do you usually keep up w/ the fundies?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc06/i...5126CZ20090203
I don't, except for overall interest rates direction, but this was a hint, virtually telling everyone "we don't care what you think, we'll flood the world with dollars."
THE world heard about it on Feb 3., but those more privileged ones on Jan 26 (don't worry that's not me..)
Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
would you say that this is the main piece of this puzzle? the dj -> yen correlation? thx.
for me yes, for others, it may be very well a piece of garbage. everyone trades differently.
james16 Chart Thread
. TPs had been hit.
. 
awsome week.
.... or else...
a little psychology here...
...
Time to move to NZ?
@ rusty
