Help me out here as I am a newbie to this type of trading but looking at the chart it doesn't look like the 2nd bar closes lower than the first bar. Am I looking at the wrong bar? I'm not trying to be a smart a$$, just trying not to be confused.
Thanks,
Scott
That's because ellipse got bigger when I decreased the image from the original size and covered more bars.
I looked at a fifth last bar (high around 1.7791) and one before.
I think you guys got away with it today. That is not a BEOVB. From my understanding, the body (open and close) of the second bar has to engulf the body of the first, thus, the close of the second bar has to be lower than the open of the first.
Have a lekker weekend
Habeeb
You're absolutely right, Habeeb. This is not a BEOVB and thanks for pointing it out.
I took the trade because of nonefarm data being released next day and was 'gambling' on GBP\USD to drift lower until that time.
1. backtesting on charles system was done manually by its inventors, the results are unbelievable so i wont post them. i have said before that its not my intention to overhype the pf so i wont here even though you have given me a golden oppurtunity. i will be presenting some personal systems but my main focus will be teaching price action. shoot charles ( dialist) a pm and he might send you the actual results. i believe they run the past couple of years.
2. everything in the pf will require demo trading in my opinion to become good at them.
3. i see no reason why they could not be automated but there is some descretion in all of them.
4. there will absolutly be no live trading calls in the pf. the forum will be for teaching and educational purposes only. i dont want to go to jail or be fined by the authorities.
5. the ongoing commitment will be 99 bucks a month.
6. you can quit whenever you want, the whole purpose of the pf is to teach some really good and unusual stuff. i think most people would be better served to stick around longer than two months but you can print it and leave in 2 days if you want.
THE ENTIRE POINT OF THE PF IS TO HELP NOT TRY TO TAKE YOUR MONEY FOR NOTHING. ANYONE WHO SPENDS THE 99 BUCKS WILL SEE THIS IN ABOUT 2 SECONDS. thanks for your questions.
Hello James,
Thanks again for the great thread and upcoming pf.
I?m really looking forward to it.
Maybe I?m jumping ahead but I thought I?d ask anyway: are you guys considering payments via PayPal?
...
I tried printing this thread but the images/charts were not included in the printable version..
...
Hi eastmaels,
you can try right clicking anywhere on the thread and click on 'select all'
now go to edit and click on copy.
open ms word blank document, right click on it and select paste.
now you should be able to print everything with pictures.
You will have to edit it to make it look nice however.
to give you an idea what it looks like i'm attaching zipped word doc.
Thanks for the file.
Actually, I also have some threads that I like in Word format.
But it just takes so much time that I think that there's got to be a more efficient way of doing it. I really don't like doing things when there's a more efficient way of doing them.
It's what Fiji termed as, "Productive laziness".. Nice huh?
But as for the moment, I think I'll just have to go with this manual copying to word if I want it on paper..
The only reason I'll be doing it because the information included in the thread is worth doing the effort.
Again, thanks for the input!
Regards,
Athan
I agree, it would be nice to have a printable version of FF.
And since I was bored a few minutes ago I wanted to post this minichart I made to illustrate how to deal with BUOBs once again...
This time on a more "evil" pair, the GBPJPY.
Try not to look at the timeframe :P
I should have blended that out....well, it's all about illustration, anyway
I like this chart better....much easier to trade...less noise
We had a nice bearish beov daily bar, which triggered my short on ret.
I trade gbp/chf together with yen crosses, especially gbp/jpy.
when gbp/chf is falling (or rising), it usually triggers my yen trades as well and last night we had a nice correction in carry trades...
Very cool stuff raczekfx, I was trying to figure out why you went short on the gbpjpy?
Was it based off the gbpchf trade? or price reaching the outer fibs?
Thanks cipher, but the credit mainly goes to the owner of this thread
To be absolutely honest, I was also observing gbp/jpy behavior very closely during cable break out yesterday. Cable shoot up 150+ pips, yet gbp/jpy only managed to gain some 60pips. That's very unusual; add gbp/chf PA to the mix and you have more pieces of a puzzle ....When bottom falls out of pound/yen, it usually pulls other yen crosses along, so why not short them all at the same time? MM still applies though
p.s. I have a friend, who only trades gbp/jpy and chf/jpy (mainly as a carry trade) and uses gpb/chf as a control chart. I was very fortunate to meet him.
Hi Raczekfx, always nice to see your posts
Speaking of the devil, ey?
Please don't forget that there's two conflicting setups - the BEOB and the PB.
You could also view the pin break as a move back to get sellers for the BEOB. Please be careful...I've conflicting setups for my wavecount as well, but not that I'm any good at that... :/
Like I posted above, if the s/r zones and retrace areas go this could well continue on down....EJ made a 1H bearish Pin altho that's a lower TF....
Just saying that GJ alone would already have moved out 80 from the .618 entry, so never hurts to secure the position
Waiting to see since both EURUSD and GBPUSD also made bullish 4h candles, even though USDCHF did not. (IB there)
Regards,
SeekingLight
You're right SL
I still prefer taking side that pays me daily interest though...
Hope banks think the same way.
Targets for that short, including small TL Mouteki logic
Plus that 4h EMA you know.
But if the count is correct the C down we're in should go to either FE 61.8 100 or 161.8.
I'm assuming EURUSD and USDCHF will do a similiar dance. Aiming for 1.27+ on USDCHF and < 1.2900 on EURUSD. Also 235.00 on GJ tops, weak target hit on that already.
Don't you just love it when TPs for your shorts become entries for your long trades and vice versa..?
Actually have the most tiny position from the PB break on that...but it was for a different reason and I'm still a bit timid holding it....but I'll try to keep it until we hit new highs or blow out the PB or something
Btw, not a great pin in my book, but at s/r like you said, so let's see how it goes...
Nice to see you're still around RaczekFX, always great to see your posts&learn from them
I hope you're doing well SL :wave:. I enjoy your posts as well.
Strange things are happening to me. The better I do, the less desire I have to post. It's like with that buddist monk, who was meditating for years.
The more he practiced the less he talked...
4 bars left before month end. I'm finding this formation very interesting .. .
If price closes where it is right now, we'll have monthly close with in 60pips for three consecutive months and a monthly IB. It's quite unusual for such volatile cross.
...another very nice bounce off support. I have been eying this setup for a few days, but missed it due to involvement in yen and cable. Hope some of you caught it...
Any takers on this one?? Did not get in on the break as the stop would have been huge but it has retraced nicely to the weekly pivot, have took a long from here.
Some more aggressive traders bought bounce off of 55.
Post #10 shows bearish outside vertical bars. This post that Razl is talking about is not one though. Infact, it doesn't look like any bar that James covers.
Wiz
Bullish outside on weekly was a good confirmation for a long trade off j16 PP and that?s all I care about. Taking partial profit and moving rest to BE ++ allows to play 18 at a remote, quite location.
Happy trading Wiz
Hi Rac,
Sorry for being a pain, I really didnt see what setup you meant. I get confused with these BUOB/BEOBs, but Im sure Mike said the other day they should close above the last bar, or close as high up as possible. How did you play it then, on a retracement? Because if you played the break of the weekly it wouldnt have gone very far, yet...I am here to learn, which often means asking questions, so if you post a setup, expect questions to follow (Actually, nobody ever asks questions about any setups I post so you never know I guess Im just a pain in the ass) In any case, good luck with your trade, Raz
Hi Raz,
I went long (trade daily and higher timeframe) on May 21 when price touched res/supp line going back to Dec. 2006. This is more aggressive way of trading instead of waiting for a confirmation of PA. When on weekly chart priced formed BUOB (2nd and 3rd bar from the right) it was a confirmation for me that trend will probably resume. Regardless of trend, I took half the profits when price hit resistance zone near 9870 and moved another half to BE +. hope this helps.
My perspective would be:
If I were to take partial profit, this 1.9900 are woulda been okay I guess(it's currently starting to endanger my 1.9892 s/r again..).
The whole 1.9860-1.9940 zone has been a decision point and I think we need to clear 1.9925-40 to get a push towards 1.9990 and above again.
I am currently looking to trail this (stops are equal or greater than break even) instead of taking profit as I am currently trying to let the market show me my exits more again..even though I've been cursing about those "move out, come back completely, give nothing" trades for the last 4 weeks...
Never know when the next burst might come, Kiwi and Aussie made me a bit hopeful, hopefully not wrongly so
I'm currently in "wait and see" mode.
Take care,
SeekingLight
Hello SL,
I hope you're doing well.
We're pretty much on the same page. I still have 50% of my initial position since 9720 (based on weekly s/r bounce). I'll be looking to close everything in 9950-9990 zone or trail it.
Cheers,
R
p.s. side note: just watching eur/cad action today. it looks, usd/cad correction is overdue even though it doesn't show any 'favorite' PA setups. It'd be nice to get in on another test of 1.0530/50
I couldn't resist taking profit on 7 day shorts yesterday.
There was also nice, long entry point overnight... (..touch...if you're aggressive trader).
50fib confluence near 3270 (jan 12-apr 27), if you use it as another confirmation tool
daily bar does not look prime, but the 4 hr shows a pin off previous resistance and near confluence of long term trend line, the 23.6 fib of the main move north and the 61.8 of the last big move
Let me add couple more pieces to a puzzle...
Trade or not to trade.. ?
It's for sure worth watching PA.
bingo R , and this is why I am in it. Isn't about being perfect, just picking the high probability spots to get your money in with, then managing your trades.
Hi Mike,
I hope you?re doing very well. I really enjoy your posting on FF.
Cheers,
R.
IB broke to upside and yep a DBLHC might be coming at that spot.
I missed this cross due to action in jpy, but hope to get a second change on retrace to 1.0440/50 area. Summer isn't over yet but I'll be looking for CAD to weaken in the next few months as demand for oil goes down. A few longer term calls should perform nicely.. imho
Daily pin forming after 3rd test of 4755 since Jan 07.
the only problem with entering on it's break is that solid bub bar on weekly..
It's just a gut feeling, but we might see another attempt to break that high.
any thoughts?
Look at the gbp/jpy go...248.40 support just got hit hard
nice dive today. after last friday's drop I couldn't pass an opportunity and took long yen positions on sunday open.. not a rifle shoot but certainly a B shot
I did quite the opposite, I took a position short on the gap up sunday(these almost always fill, and this one was huge, I closed out most of it for a huge gain, and then held onto the last .5% till the 150 ema on the 4hr, which i just closed and reversed.
Those gap fills can be nice easy money with huge R:R
Mike
I believe we took same trades, Mike. When I said, I took long yen positions, that'd be short yen crosses (gbp/jpy, eur/jpy)
I took half off @ 248.50; I also saw 150, but watching DJ bleed decided to hold. Might add more at Tokyo open... or trail stop
why not?? it is in a long term 61 fib - i didnt show the start of it but it is right on it since april 2000, and why go long..??
maybe i should wait to see it bounce of the s/r?
thanks
It just not my trading style to short near recently broken, daily PP on the first try. I 'try' to let the market do the job and I just follow it. Just like with my G/J short on Sunday open.
Ok now I gotta ask what makes you say short for the USD/JPY?
I am thinking it is gonna bounce on it's pivot line.
Common man give me more detail ...LOL
Steve
I'm not sure about Tiki's setups, but I added to my shorts (yen crosses) at tokyo's open.
Reason being Dow losing over 200ps. Every time there is panic on DJ there is also some unwinding in carry trades. I also have small fiber and cable shorts, but those are pure speculative bets with tight stops.
Just my 2c and I might be wrong.
I would not trade it given broken resistance (now support) is around 4760
I might consider going long there.
I did as planned. Very nice bounce..
Price tried to break that resistance (now support) level 3 times in the past, and this was the only reason why I didn't take that PB trade yesterday, but went long instead, right at the support. If it took 3 tries (since Jan 2007)to break it, I considered it to be a decent support level now.
p.s. I also also closed fiber and cable shorts but will be looking to reload a rifle on retracement
Well this is my first good trade in a while - 4h Pin bar the top of it was at the 62 fib level from the top and a minor resistance level - entered on the break of the pin - moved my stop after couple of bars and right now waiting to see what will happen on the 150Ema - hope it goes through though it is a base trade..
Thank you all guys you make me smile
Very nice mamutot.
I'm a bit more aggressive trader, so I added to my shorts when price retraced to PP, TL and 61 fib confluence. This is more risky and I don't recommend for new trades, but it might get you in a successful trade earlier.
244 was an area where I re-entered short position in g/j yesterday.
I'll explain why, in the next post (on smaller time frame)
R
Price came back to previous, broken support at around 244, and 50 fib from previous day high (just for visual confirmation) There was something else, which I'm not allowed to discuss on the public side, since it's reserved for private forum. For those of you thinking of going long here (as many of my trading buddies wants to do now) I'll post chart in the next message...
If you thinking of going long on yen crosses from here, don't forget to check a weekly chart first...
I'm a good catcher, but not this time..thanks.
Enjoy the weekend.
I KNEW it
As I wrote in the PF when outlining that trade, I bet you took that .618 and here you are
Got mine at 2.0551 myself =)
Scared me for a second when it moved 5 pips higher than I thought though hehehe. Still, was a sound decision as you wrote, with an additional justification for me via my own insane wave counting logic ;p
(end of a B before C down)
Congrats to an outstanding entry Raczekfx on goth GBPxx!
Catcher in the Y hehehehe (with Y as in Yen)
Thanks , It's been very loooong journey. GOD bless people like Jim, Dial, Fiji and PF.
I knew, you'd be wondering and that's why I posted here
I remember when 5pips against my trades used to scare me. What I do now is to take a look at all my rules, select my entries carefully, SET STOPS and go away for few hours. After all, I'm not scalping, so if I did my homework properly, I should be rewarded. If not that's what the stops are for...
This is what I did with fiber and cable a couple of days ago after initiating short positions. Few hours later Jacko called for fiber 'turning down' in his thread (which was a very nice confirmation for my positions BTW). Yesterday, I just added to my position during that spike higher to 1.3770 and 2.0560 and simply walked away...
I took a short there myselfI won't name any names but trader on another thread thought it was a bad idea I guess it did't fit his indicator hmm closed out with 150 pips hmm
great work 59..
this is why you have to have confidence in yourself and ignore 'noise'
I just wonder if it would be worthwhile buying some September mini dow, s&p september contracts or option calls. how about selling some yen contracts? This week was driven by panic selling and I'm sure there will be some quick correction on Mon or Tue...? But then again I'm no expert at all....
Indeed...
I posted quite a few of my setups and trades in James thread on PF side and this was one of them... My entry long was 1.6360.... (limit buy was hit while hibernating). It would be very nice to see a pin today.
A pin bar with a huge nose off the 150ema, indicating to go long and I've just gone short off a monthly pin?!
This is the third trade I've done in this pair in the last two weeks!
Two stopped out for large losses and now this third one losing.
ARGH
As long as your stop is above 1.6680 you might be ok. I would not bet on it. Keep in mind that 'fundamentally' speaking, there are more rate increases in the making for Euro....
Personally I see 1.70 coming unless there is panic on Wall Street and heavy carry trades unwinding..
Which way is it going to break...
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
These were the fastest 350ps delivered... in two weeks.
P.S. I was however stopped out for 80 earlier, right after fed rates announcement.
Stop should've been set lower as it's common for yen to hit new high/law and quickly reverse...
You know, I'd say up, but then I'd get all worried what that means for my precious cable short and the tears are welling up as it is already :P
Maybe if USDJPY goes berzerk while cable sits idly or something. For now, I am still staying in the firm belief of this chart. I am already beating myself up for having closed out my 2.03 addon last night due to PANIC and IGNORING my own stringent and strict trade plan. 1.9990 or bust! Well, that, or it hits one of my manually trailed stops. But go there it must I say!
(please don't trade based on what I say)
Very nice action on cable.. hope you did very well .
Yen is my favorite currency right now and It seems to be in sync with me for the last 2 months..
I need to set alerts delivered to my pda whenever you post in your journal on PF. Lot's of good set ups from you SL, but most of them get posted when I'm hibernating... Do you ever sleep?
Well played Raczekfx!!! Nicely done...I was watching this pair as well, but as you can tell...the nzd/jpy had my calling this week! Congrats and may the pips continue!!!
No, I'm a slow shooter and only trade a couple times a week unless there is something obvious... . The real trick is to be only 30% right and still make money....
I'm not quite there yet.
s turning r, R turning S.
Buy when people are panicking and collect triple swap....
It's easy.. it only requires self confidence and common sense... in case you're wrong..
What timeframe are you looking at may I ask? And I take it you went short, but what caused you to go short? I don't see any bar formations on the daily or 4hr charts. Cheers.
I know, I'm not wiz, but this is what I was looking at...
.
Now, If today was friday and I saw that '??? ' pin bar, I'd say we're heading much lower
232-234?
but I'm no expert, so you can just ignore my thoughts.
Think we're both wishing we'd have taken that GJ short
We even posted the same chart =)
I agree, if the lows blow out I got 232.50 in my chart marked blue ;p
Not necessarily in a straight line perhaps, but hey...500 pips a day np for GJ, right?
;p
right, there will always be the next one...
232 might happen sooner then people think. Statements like THIS get my attention. I big trouble brewing...
I'm probably going to start a journal with setups I see (kind of like yours) on PF side and limit my posting here.
It's more fun on the other side and ... 'more' room
Sorry Howard, can’t discuss here. It’s lagging anyways. Using simple S/R is much more profitable then MAs, imho.
Have a look at daily, 4hr and 1hr G/J charts and draw S/R lines. 4hr/1hr appear to be daytraders dream in the last 2 weeks with small stops and huge profits.
Update to the battle at the bulge....DJI futures dare not move out ahead of real DJI.
If today's turned out to be a black Friday (below 13k), I think, there will be strong bounce back next Mon/Tue. If Yen gaps higher on Sunday (234-235 area), I'd be a buyer. Market panic is good money making opportunity if you stay calm.
It'll be interesting to see governments making calming statements over the weekend...
I realized too late that that was a short entry, but I was at least smart enough to close out my last long for a bit over +200
I think I just don't expect to make 200 up, >130 down just like that...more a mind problem than anything.
Waiting to see what happens at 1.07.
That would've been a nice entry SL... (on touch).
I took only a few days off away from world's madness to sail in the solitude of the northern hemisphere .... and the market hell broke loose ...
I can tell by recent volatility, many folks made money, but even more lost some fortunes. Unfortunately, I get that feeling we haven?t seen the end of it yet
I thought of keeping some of my longer term limit orders open but decided to cancel them all and enjoy the journey. This one could?ve paid for all my expenses? But who cares, even few days away from this world is priceless?.
Personally I would rather long GBPJPY at this moment if I see a right pa setup.
I was referring to TL, touch setup in SL's post # 5456.
Chart I posted refers to my short g/j setup I posted in my journal on Aug. 13
And as for going long on yen crosses, sure, but I think we'll see quite a few large swings in days to come before dust settles, so choose the right PA before jumping in...
I KNEW you'd love it =)
I was thinking of you the whole time when I posted it
Sailing must be nice, never done it myself, but it seems to have some magic going for it.
Agree on not having seen the end, but we WILL hear fanfares to that end.
Too bad about the orders, but heck, I do assume you're not pressed or in need of the "easy" money just yet, no?
Welcome back =)
Now to find out how long the chop back higher lasts...
No more easy money...
Everytime I think easy m, it's a sure loss!
I just think pips now.
Sailing is great. Since you're in Europe, you can try these guys one day for your next vacation idea.
is there a pin bar on the 4h gbpchf right now?
been trading that pair lately and saw one forming before i left
just wanted to see if it did form and if its tradeable since im already shorting this pair
Not on my platform (alpari), but it looks gooood...
thanks for the input
im gonna wait a tad bit then ill decide if ill get out or not
good thing im trading very small amounts coz im down quiet a few pips. been a hectic week
...
FWIW
I'm looking to go long after a pull back (if) @ around 2.3940
and tryin to find a reason to stay in a losing trade but then again a nice fibo cluster should keep price from going higher for now and potentially push it down a few pippies
sorry for your loss b.i.l.
hope you haven't bet a house on this one...
well, there is no sure thing in this game, but I see a good resistance around 2.4080-2.41 (PP, 61fib, TL and something else)
If I were short, I would definitely be looking to exit on another price swing to 2.3845-2.39.
raczekfx,
What feed are you using for your Metatrader I am using MVP and not one of those three shows as a proper pin on my charts.....typical heh !!!!!!
Really strange...though ??
Please check post # 5762
I see good setups on your feed as well with the first one being buovb on fiber
nope, I trade weekly and dailies, look for areas of s/r and go down to 4hr and sometimes to 1hr to fine tune entries (once I made up my mind re: trade direction...)
Yep,
thats what wizard and other good traders Ive spoken to seem to do as well, but I find going down to 1hr too fast. I hadnt really looked at 4hr until friday when you posted those charts, and I had a better look. 4hr seems to be more my pace than 1hr. In any case daily is my haunt, and I should probably keep it that way until I have more experience. This was probably a beginners luck trade, but I liked it take care, Raz
Dailies rule
I would not recommend anyone going down to 4hr or especially 1hr until they're comfortable and profitable with daily setups. So if I throw a 4hr chart here sometimes, please don't treat it as a recommendation. Besides, I'm not good, nor very experienced trader, so this is only 'imho'...
best of luck Raz
I'm in since the beginning (Jan 2006) and still keep on wondering why I wasted all that $$$ on investing books. I guess FF wasn't even in Merlin's head, when I started collecting them.....
I'm no match for wizzard's 650%/month return .. but 100-200ps/month seems a breeze now.
Looking forward to a day when a pip will be worth $100...
...
I wish to learn his 'Knife's strategy' but donot know where to search! If you are reading it 'Diallist Sir', please e-mail me at 'vijvms@yahoo.co.in' .
...
Omsai
Peace. May God be with you.
Omsai,
Knife system is explained in the PF in Diallist Tutorials thread.
If you're not a member, you can search FF for vegas4hr or tunnel methods.
Knife is based somehow on vegas4hr system, but is fine tuned with filters and rules to avoid bad trades and pick only those with high probability of success.
I try not to think as ABC. I think as higher high, higher low followed by higher high / lower low, lower high followed by lower low again. Because you can get to ABCDEFG in a long trend.
That's the general idea. Also the basic definition of a trend. Think simple
not sure about ABC (it's been a while since my last english class), but I have a question..
Suppose I was short cable since yesterday and was looking for opportunities to take some profit (I could take some now ~2.0180). I was also thinking of taking some at 2.0060 and the rest around 1.9960/80. Does that make sense?
Thanks.
R
It's good to have a respect for those old S/R areas.
I posted this setup yesterday some 100ps before it materialized.
Purple line was my target long and reverse to short,
... and another one. Picky, picky, overtrading is not the key here.
This one went against my some 40ps before turning finally lower..
two days of struggle.... let's see if we can get a nice pin today.
Next week rate announcement. what's a gonna be, .5 - it will be bad.
No rate cut? even worse, very tough job for the feds, but who cares.
Our daily setup is forming slowly...
not sure about ABC (it's been a while since my last english class), but I have a question..
Suppose I was short cable since yesterday and was looking for opportunities to take some profit (I could take some now ~2.0180). I was also thinking of taking some at 2.0060 and the rest around 1.9960/80. Does that make sense?
Thanks.
R
..never mind. I already know the answer..
Thanks Seeking Light.
Hi Rene,
I'm starting to put pieces together slowly, but I'm stil learning.
This thread really pushed me to the next level a couple of years ago.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renefx
As a newbie, I would want to understabd it too.
I'd seen the self explain pino chart, But seem cvomplicated to me.
Would you mind to explain about the pino bar?
1. Is there any particular number of pips between the High/Low and Open/Close of the bar to qualify such bar as Pinochio ?
Mike provided you with a very good document on PBs. I may only add that for slow moving pairs e.g. eur/chf, I look for less pips in a nose then for more volitile like cable or gbp/chf. For example 30pips nose is good enough on eur/chf, but I'd like to see 60 and more on gbp/chf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renefx
2. I assume we are watching the current Bar (next bar after pino bar)
to break over of what bar before the pino bar ?
That's probably most conservative way of playing PBs. I am a bit more aggressive and tend to enter on PB close or retracement (50-61fib, like in post #6076 )
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renefx
Will appreciate any help. Sorry for the English, it's not my native.
Thanks You in Advance.
Not a problem and don't worry about your English. It's not my first language either... It's my 4th...
Wishing you many PBs and pips
not sure about ABC (it's been a while since my last english class), but I have a question..
Suppose I was short cable since yesterday and was looking for opportunities to take some profit (I could take some now ~2.0180). I was also thinking of taking some at 2.0060 and the rest around 1.9960/80. Does that make sense?
Thanks.
R
I'm beginning to wonder if we'll hit 1.9850 and 1.9750 again soon..
been now watching and reading this thread for a while. I love it!
Saw today this weekly aussie BUOB from 38.2 with a retrace to the englufed bar high and thought about what Seeking was writing a few weeks ago. What do you think?
Take care
Kpt
If it appeared where your 61 fib is (swing low) I'd love it, now I'm not so sure.... but it's testing support alright.
Nice example is cable...raczekfx is already looking for doomsday prices and he may well be right to do so...
..
Not a doomsday, I'm just waiting for everyone to lose hope in cable, then I'll start buying. Probably around 4:30 AM est, but It would be really nice to see 1.9850 first...
I am also getting ready. I will play a break of the daily hammer (...er..."pin bar"... ) ..
Here is what I did;
I bought half position @ 1.0130 and placed buy limit for second half @ 1.0040. If Pb gets broken to the upside, I'll scale in with second half, when opportunity presents itself. If there is run on parity, it should be followed by quick reversal, which may take this cross much higher (reversal?). There should be large profit taking once this cross gets closer to 1.00. I know it's much safer to trade the break of the PB and I would not recommend what I did to everyone. Let's wait and see...
Did not get a break to the upside of the daily hammer. All pending orders cancelled.. Will wait for next opportunity to present itself. CASH is a position, too!!
Good for you.. B . I managed to escape with a small loss right after fiber broke 1.4000. Conservative way is the way to go...sometimes
..
Let's see whether this spooky scenario unfolds for real or not...if anyone needs a good FX pair to correlate - look no further than CADJPY ;p
Best seat in the house right now if you ask me...since everyone of the "analysts" is screaming "best sell EVURRRR" I am bracing myself for a very hard rally up eventually
And USDCAD up means CADJPY down...unless USDJPY rallies it's butt off...anyone seeing that happen? Anyone.....any takers...long USDJPY....come on....anyone.... :P
..
I would like to hear some thoughts about swing lows and highs... how do we know when we are at a swing low or high??? There is not always a PB there...
Remember 'master' vegas reversal system and extreme fibs on dailies? It's hidden here, somewhere on FF...,
It's a pin bar alright. I for one would trade a break outside Friday's high/low rather then this particular pin bar. It is within Friday's range, that's just one reason I wouldn't trade. No setup for me, still waiting
I hear you...that's why, I acted when it formed on 1hr TF.
I'm a bit more aggressive ...
I hear you...that's why, I acted when it formed on 1hr TF.
I'm a bit more aggressive ...
Trade taken on 1hr, should be closed on 1hr timeframe as well.
One of the reasons for exit could be back to tunnel on vegas1hr, 50fib and TL confluence....
Someone could also spot PPZ and other goodies from PF... (not plotted on this chart) ..
That's a 4h Pin bar off some small fib confluence.
Trade ideas: long while price > 2.0090, close and short below 2.0090.
... and 2.0195/0205 is where I would consider taking partial profit and look for opportunity to go short. It's also around 50fib of ret.
This is only my inexperienced mumbling though, so please pay no attention...
not daily but...
short yesterday after 1hr PB @ 2.0280
out yesterday at confluence mentioned here earlier @ 2.0140.
long after 4AM est (my favorite time to trigger long fiber and cable) @ 2.0130
out after housing news @ 2.0198.
these are short term scalps only, and don't reflect my long term view on cable.
Dunno. Things up here are really minefields...we're THIS close to breaking to new highs on AUD and that really nice article I wrote to go up in flames
... don't you worry about that. The less you care about what people think and say about you ... the better you do....
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Really admire your swift and terrifc cable trades lately, wishing I'd have done mine with more gusto, but I'm so deathly afraid to miss the "final rally" that I daren't play the field more....dang.
...thanks, but you know where or whom rather, credit belongs....
one thing I noticed though, is that my trading got much, much better once I stopped watching 30+ markets and concentrated on just a few..
I feel old....
Raczekfx,
Your posts are extremely welcome, did not mean to contradict....
Please keep posting all your observations and trades as I am interested as always.
Stay Lucky.
ps Trying to stay away from that EUR_CAD as was stopped out last week 20th on that pair there not in my good books at the moment and I wont be sending them a christrmas card this year.......LOL's
I was just teezn', mimas...
besides, i don't really find much values in my observations...
BTW. u/c and e/c PBs were good too me
I closed both longs earlier today.
entries were:
eur/cad 1.4081
usd/cad .9976
Is this 1h PB short GBPCHF something worth putting real money on?
And raczekfx would probably think:
Cool, that 1h PB at the place I've been waiting for, time to show SL what's what!
... I thought you'd know me better by now SL .. and I didn't post those chf/gbp, g/j and other charts for fun....
I'm a 'touch' man.
e.g. 2.3810 was long TP and trigger for short at the same time (check the same chart in my journal for clues)..... oh I see now, there is also 1hr pb now..
all right, a quick look at u/j, e/j, g/j and back to a cellar... Ice wine is almost ready.
I got in at 234.12, but not after getting stopped out earlier for a small loss.
If you traded it off daily support you should still be in the trade HP..
Stay on daily folks, don't try to get rich quickly on small TF.
With an exception of few individuals ..., you will be much better off trading that daily time frame. I've been there for 12 years, but first 8 were very, very painful.. (I wish FF was there for me then.. )
Since Nov 2006, I had few months with over 1000ps scalping 4 and 1hr TF, but nothing makes me happier than 3-4 good trades a month worth 400ps.
That gives me enough time to enjoy my kids and life...!
Trade and be happy.
Cheers for now
You mean I have 5 more years of classes to go ??? Ay Dios mio !!! And so far you might say I am only getting a C average >>>
It depends on you. Your future is only in your hands...only in your hands! You have much better tools today then 12 years ago.....
...and I'm sure, you haven't drawn charts on paper and adjusted emas at the end of the day by hand....
I've managed to escape a large loss in this twice so far today. Wondering if I am starting to push it.
Went long at 23420 yesterday on a break of the triangle. Woke up this morning to see price had taken a sharp 200 point fall and come within 2 pips of taking me out before forming a pin bar. 2 pips. I mean - seriously. 2 actual pips. That's the power of where I choose to place my PPZ lines. haha!
Then, price takes off and I go from a 200 point loss into a 55 point gain. I start to think this is going to really take off and then price takes another nosedive - falls a 150 points and actually goes 7 pips below my stop - my broker once again doesn't stop me out and I am now back in profit.
What does this mean?
a) I had a lucky escape twice. Price has given me two opportunities to get out. There may not be a third. Take the money.
b) Price is resilient. It wants to go higher and dips below the triangle breakout are met with buying. Hold my position.
c) Who cares? I've been hit my lightning.
I vote for C.
until price leaves purple zone, you can make a killing scalping it.
if it breaks to the upside, it should slow down around red dwarf...
Unless you really see dj shooting through 14k, I would not bet on red dwarf too much....
Raczekfx,
Was looking at that very same setup myself today .......!!!!!!!!!
Going against the main trend however....????
Out of interest......do you play these on the retrace say 50% or do you jump straight for the break....
Stay Lucky.
against main trend....? Well yes, but trend has to end one day and what's the better day than announcement out of china about their new 200bil fund...hint, hint....
..but jocking aside, It depends on your trading style and stomach for risk.
Actually, I'm in a trade already, since .8905 and no, I'm not trading break outs. I like to be in a trade before they happen or after they occur and price returns to support/resistance.., 50-61 is nice as well.
P.S. you can blame price move to .8806 on Seeking Light... He made that request in PF(his journal) yesterday around the same time... some wishes do come true..
this is just mho of course, but if cable is poised to jump higher, I don't see it happening before Friday's nonfarm. If I'm not mistaken BB, there was 4hr fozzy sell signal yesterday around the same price.
Does anyone see any long setups from here, other then PPZ bounce at 2.0367?
If you catch it like you did it's a great trade in terms of r:r but I mean that I wouldn't trade it conservatively on a break of the pin. Simply because I feel it won't fall far before it tests the highs again.
got it, unless we'll see carry unwind, it might not go much lower.
I just took an opportunity before tomorrow's rate news, approaching nonfarm and test of July's high........
It wasn't conservative for sure...
I'm keeping a close eye on all the xxxCHF pairs.
USD, EUR, GBP all look like they're at important spots.
They'll either hit a resistance ceiling and go down or break through and continue their recent strong uptrends.
As you can see, I like making bold specific predictions. :
I let the price tell me what do in areas like these.
Man..., have a mercy. I'm in EST.
Went to bed at 2:30AM and got up at 6am....
p.s.
you know my unpopular view on dj for october... d & h.... This is why I'm mainly hooked on yen for now ..
look at this beautiful vegas trades off the tunnel... there is some good PA...too bad man disappeared from this earth..
If it ends as a weekly pin then that certainly adds strength to it...but I probably still wouldn't take it.
As I have said before we all have feelings / make judgements on the market based on our own experience of it (and perhaps also on what we have read or heard from other sources).
This leads us to enter the market with our own thought beliefs and style of trading. Just as many people wouldn't trade against the trend, others frequently try to pick tops and bottoms.
I am constantly in awe of how you enter trades seemingly right at the point they turn ("the touch" as you call it) and yet still others need to see a rejection and be more conservative.
....
Wiz
Hi Wiz,
Yes, you're right about feelings and judgments; thank God, we're all unique and not clones...
How do you know I enter right at the turning points....,you're not lurking around my journal, are you....?
Let me tell you, It's just pure luck ... but I try to make it as live as possible...
Canadian News! Local trader bets his neighbors hunting shack to make money in FX. Neighbor shoots trader with buckshot after trader goes broke!:surprised
...shame on you hip..., you translated it backward...
//... trader made $$$ shorting g/j from 240.40... bought his neighbor a castle in France.....then they both gone fishing...///
...shame on you hip..., you translated it backward...
//... trader made $$$ shorting g/j from 240.40... bought his neighbor a castle in France.....then they both gone fishing...///
Future charts (in att.pdf).....never lie.
p.s.
sorry, teezn' you guys.... just ignore me...
Last edited by raczekfx, Oct 16, 2007 9:02am
Reason: added p.s.
My first input on PA....I would be careful of the old resistance around 2.0430. Could be some solid support.
The way I look at it:
Unless we can close above above 2.05, gravity might pull cable down. I see support around following price areas:
2.0350, 2.0230 and 2.0130.... then 2.0, 1.99, 1.97.....
I've set limit buy 'around' 1.6666...
If carry unwind tomorrow, price won't stop there, but there is always a chance of a good bounce off this confluence...
It is unbelievable, I got an e-mail yesterday about a person who sells the best forex system!!!!!! I am not interested in such systems, but the first
e-book about a daily swing system is free. I thougt why not, maybe something to laugh. I can not post it in this forum because it has copyright.
He starts with pinbars, it is absolut everything from this forum, really everything. He did not even change the name, no he calls it also pinbars.
And if we, also the NEWBES have mastered this pins then the great master will show us other price action entrys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I like it when people don't have success in FX then they sell what they have found in a forum.
Seeking wenn es Dich interessiert sende ich es Dir.
Regards Erkro
I'm afraid you're talking about a person, whose last name starts with a letter S, second is A.
If that's correct, this person is most likely involved in a theft of a copyrighted material and publishing/selling it as his own system.
HI,
Judging from Rac?s jpgs it looks like he waits for the gap to be filled and then takes it in direction of the original ?trend?...nice one Rac! Take care, Raz
I'm really glad to see post again... You survived the storm..
Hopefully, It didn't make any damage to your property....
Raczekfx, I too am interested in this gap trading idea. I saw this last night on many pairs but I was unsure if it would fill because some pairs gapped a huge amount of pips (I think GBP/JPY gapped something like 100-200 pips or something like that). How well does this strategy work? What have been your experiences with trading gaps? Also it appears simple enough to trade with the current trend after the gap is filled but did you also trade the pairs while the gap is being filled, or is this too aggressive an approach? I traded this idea in my demo account last night with the gbp/jpy but found it kind of hard to determine where the top was going to be again before the move down. However, I did do fairly well overall with riding it up and then back down again now. This idea seems pretty easy or did I just get lucky here. More demoing is needed I guess. Thanks for any comments from anyone with experience trading gaps.
I did very well trading gaps in the past, if they coincided with ppz, tls, fib ret etc. It’s just another tool in my trading toolbox. Just keep in mind there is absolutely no magic to it. There is only one reason why TLs, fibs and gaps work.. They work because traders put ‘weight’ to it and have certain expectation regarding price behavior when it approaches those areas. Same thing applies to your 10, 50, 100, 200 or any other emas…. They only work because traders use them as an entry/exit points. Again, no magic here either.
As for GJ, I’m not sure; It’s already 300 ps away from the gap. I was in with good size before Friday’s close @ 235.29. I’m sort of aggressive trader and trade both ways with and against the trend, so if I find gj bouncing off good S/R , forming a PB or any other setup, I’ll go long to ‘meet/close’ the gap.
B.T.W. Last week was my best week ever in my entire trading career in terms of pips.
All the credit goes to the founder of this thread and the PF
While I think this is a fair PB... I was hoping for some others to comment first... before I take this trade... but it has been a long boring day here in this thread today... I guess everyone is recouperating from getting so many pips last night !!!
This is actually pb by proxy with a left eye around .8815.
Why do I get a feeling, it's going to break down instead of up.....
..
4. Do you believe that we are in a trend reversal?
To early to speculate..., we'll know more after this weekly bar closes.
Given action on fiber and cable last night, something is definitely brewing...
Right now, .8940 is the area of interest to me...
The problem here is that I really liked this Pin Bar... and you scared me away from it !!! Well, that of coarse is my own problem... !! But as seeking said, I must learn to think for my self... and this I will do in the future !!!
Although price may now be coming to it's high ( maybe ), and it may or may not be a long run, but even at this point this PB would have paid off nicely for me...
The PB looked good... it even fits a discription MBQB11 used in his video of price swinging over and dangling a cherry ( or something like that )... I am too infulenced by what others say... ( even though I asked for opinions )
Time I take the trade or not on my own... this won't happen again... !!!
Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining... but starting to realize I am not such a bad trader... but I've got to listen to myself first !!!
My sincere apologies Ticki. I'll try not to make any comments based on what I see or think in this thread. They belong to my journal...
It was indeed very profitable pin.. Many, many more pips to you.
Not about you, not about the PB... but about me doing my what I am supposed to do !!! And I still do not do it often enough... which is just think for myself !!
This is absolutely critical to believe in your trading abilities if you want to succeed. Take a note of what others are saying and do what you think is right....
I know, I was in your shoes few years ago, listening to analysts, traders, reading blogs and was only losing money.
One day, I woke up, and looking in the mirror I said out loud: I CAN DO IT...
Everything changed for better since that day.. I know that you CAN DO IT too... !
Best
So since I am fairly new to this I have a question. We've got this BUOB at a 20 year high on AUDUSD. The pair is in a strong uptrend and USD is pretty weak on the other majors. On the daily we had a very nice PB last week which I missed unfortunately which was followed by 4 consecutive bullish bars. So my question: Would you enter on the open or would you play a retrace?
In my opinion it's a little too late to jump on the boat and I think I wait for a small retrace which could happen if the pair gaps and moves down so that the gap closes.
Happy Trading,
Chris
From my limited experience I can tell you that:
Buovb work best when spotted and traded at the swing low.
Beovb work best when traded from swing high.
From my limited experience I can tell you that:
Buovb work best when spotted and traded at the swing low.
Beovb work best when traded from swing high.
I looked around and haven't found many buovb that failed at the swing high, creeper, so I will watch audusd with interest. At the moment aussie enjoys high commodity prices. Watch out for any weakness in chinese stock market and/or demand for copper/gold falling....
If that happens, aussie should fall on its face ...quickly....(imho)
below is one example of failed buovb (you could also say it was a pb broken to the upside by bub....
Hi everyone. I've been following this thread "secretly" for a while now... Thanks to everyone for the great information. Here is one 4 hours pin close to the previous high. Anyone would play it? I'm hesitating 'cause it is against the trend... Sebastien
If I'm not sure what to do on a smaller time frame, I always look at a larger picture to see the odds ...
p.s.
I have a limit sell set 2.0644 (this is not recommendation to trade, but rather part of my risky strategy)
I've set limit buy 'around' 1.6666...
If carry unwind tomorrow, price won't stop there, but there is always a chance of a good bounce off this confluence...
few days later.....
patience, patience, patience...
I disagree with you about oil... not about it being justified or anything, but just that now it is getting too close to the $ 100.... it is the big round number... the $ 100 is now going to be like a magnet... I give it to the end of November to get there... if even that long...
There are a bunch of 1H Buy Pins that have formed on all the JPY pairs. Most are off a trendline. I don't know why that sudden drop happened (almost looked like profit taking/ stop hunting )
Watch yourselves.
Hi guys,
Anyone looking at eur? If it closes lower it could be a 2 day pin, from a swing high, trendline and FE 61....In any case it would be a countertrend trade, a big no no for me, but still this could signal a correction...thoughts? heres a chart, take care all, and Im still around just very busy, in case anyone is wondering (sniff) Raz
Hi Raz,
You know my opinion about pathway for $$ in the coming days (won't say here, I wouldn't want to get Tiki upset again....lol)
Have a look at weekly bar forming.... It looks like early Christmas approaching...
I'm still consistently losing after a year of full-time trading, so my posts are usually a little dry, if not terse.
In other words, I'm usually having a GOOD (bad) day. This (The next) year is (will be) better.
You can start a winning process by replacing few words in your post... and start using that format from now on....
Start thinking as a winner (even if you're not just yet) and you'll become one.
Let your subconscious work for you. (At least, it helped me)
We are (become), who we think we are....
Best,
R
Not really finishing the day as a 2 day Pin... but either way... I don't think CAD is finished... just that it has to stop at some point and get some more gas for the next push... maybe even a couple of days back up... but winter has not yet even begun to set in... oil prices are going to go up lots still, and if nothing else, gasoline and heating costs are going through the roof this winter... to me that means USD/CAD Down...
I'm not entitled to post my opinion, but I asked my 5 year old and he said: NO
Could you please ask him for his opinion though ??
Would he be more interested in a 6 pack of cola or apple juice ????
I can't get an opinion or anything from my 5 year old right now, cause she is cranky tonight for some reason... means I have no trade ideas for tonight either !!
He read your post and gave an answer in capitals already....
nuh, no 6 pack, no juice..no pop.... my kinds only drink water...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Tiki, You just made me think im the biggest idiot in the world. Why not buy oil on the next dip? I plan on it now. I live up north, I shouldh ave had that rationale for buying oil.
don't be to harsh on yourself.... pull the charts and check what oil did in the last 5 years .... october-january period......
..I dont think Ethanol is a good replacement for oil, and I think that because people stay in routine more often than not, they will stick with oil instead of going electric. ...
.
not ethanol... other technologies are already in use.. but it will be a while before 'regulars' are able use them...
oil 'cartels' have many interesting patents collecting dust ....
I hope that those high oil prices will speed up our tech. r/evolution..
Can you post a chart of monthlies ??? Danged if I can find one... I think this year may be different... this summer season did not go as usual where gas prices came down after summer driving season, instead they are now going up... they are going to get us in the winter this year !!! And an extra cold winter is predicted, which in itself helps oil prices go up...