I do trade with the appropriate position size, what made me worry is that if this trade goes bad, it will break my-since february-winning streak from daily/weekly TFs... It'll make me go through recovery process by backtesting again...
All I can do now is wait...
You can't let one loss shake you out of everything you have worked for. That is why evaluate your trading on a bigger scale. This is one of the reasons James describes doing things in blocks of 3 months. It is fantastic advice, to help one not take a loss and switch up everything they know.
AUD/USD burned me. I had a 50 pip SL and i entered the trade on the break of the daily BEOB.
Hey D
I have to be honest here. You need to have a better game plan then a 50 pip sl on a daily bar that is 250+ pips. I understand wanting to minimize the S/L for a bigger position, but remember it needs to be logical as the market doesn't care what fixed number you pick. Looks like the pair moved 20+ pips then, so your stop should have been to b/e if you are using such a small stop loss.
Again this isn't meant to say some might not use some small stops, but logically if you are looking to be more aggressive, use some close s/r, or a fib, or something more technical in nature to base your stop on.
why your chart look different? i thought right after the long BEAR bar, there's another long BEAR bar... hurm???
p/s: Hi James16 and gang. I'm a new guy here, this is my first posting. Hope u guys welcome me. I'm still learning this method. I promise that I won't cause u guys any trouble okay. hehe
Correction!!!
I meant 0.5% risk on a trade for someone who can't watch the charts at all times, but wants to participate in the market and trade off daily charts. On the best setups I can even go as high as 8%(if I'm correct Darkstar went even 10% on certain setups.. Mike?), but then again I'm glued to the screens until stops are at BE (hence my rate of return exceeded my wildest dream this year?lol)...
that was for one specific system he used exploit a rare occurring inefficiency. He later ditched due to lack of trades. His main system was run at 2% risk and had a very high expectancy.
There were some great posts on the subject. My take is simply a trader that is not yet profitable should stop thinking about the what IFs of trading. On what they should Aim for, and instead focus everything on simply learning to trade right. This is why like mark said, if youa re struggling going to the lower timeframes so you can up your position size and potentially gain more is a recipe for disaster. Rac has been at this for a LONG time, it did not come over night.
My return varies from month to month, and I never aim for X% a month or a year. I simply aim to trade the best I can with my methods. If I end up down for the month, I don't try to make up for it next month. Just because I made X% last year doesn't mean I will make it this year. Trying to tweak a spreadsheet starting with 10k/20k/30k/ to what you need to get your million in 1 year, 2 year, 3 years, is playing with fire.
Focus on trading right, the profits will come and take care of themselves.
No business would go ahead without expected projections. You need to at least have an idea of what profits you will make, realistcally. I agree looking at monthly % is to short term, unless you are looking back through your trading history, not hoping on the future, but you should have an idea what annual percentage you can get.
Unfortunatly this is not the case until you know what you are doing. And it is far from a one size fits all scenario. It will vary so greatly that until you have data behind your own methods thinking and wondering is preventing more valuable time from being spent on doing. And i say this from being in those shoes.
Yeah, just wondering how you treat it as a business from that respect, I guess trading in unique there.
It is unique but doesnt mean you cant treat it as a businss. Bu yes it isnt like opening a subway franchise. Still have to have a business mentality. After you spend a lot more time these questions will clear up and many of your former view points will greatly change. That is ok and part of the learnig curve.
Hey Mike, or any of you advance folks out there, mind looking over my previous post, 30164, see what you guys think!
Thanks
Hey Frank
Your analysis is sound, it is just a more aggressive way to trade then waiting for Price action. It is more Raczefx`esque , but certainly fine way to learn to trade. When I say more aggressive that doesn't mean BAD or WRONG, which is often associated with that word. Just keep testing it to see if it will work for you in the long run.
I'm a little confused right now, should I return to 1% risk? I think after dealing with a loss, I might want to gain back my rythm before risking the same percentage again.
This is only to help you asking the following questions.
How long have you been trading successfully at 1% risk?
How many trades was it total?
What makes you think after x months, moving to 2% risk is a good idea? How about 3%?
What were your motives for upping to 3% risk? Greed? You want more now?
Did you know every time you double your risk you double your max drawdown? So if you have a method that historically has a max drawdown of 20%, at 1% risk per trade, when you now risk 2% per trade effectively that max drawdown becomes 40%.
Again I know marcel so I just give him a kick to get him thinking
Not quite so with FX: there is certain (and not small) amount of non-trade transactions, i.e. when clients need to convert currencies irrespective of the rates to pay for large commercial orders to buy stock in local currencies.
Also, DarkStar (I believe) gave an example of one trader exiting, say, Long is(profitably) - on the other side of that transaction is a trader who is going Short (which could be profitable too), and so on.
it's actually a zero sum(negative zero sum with spreads/commissions). What DS was simply saying is just b/c it is a zero sum doesn't mean the trader closing his short, that there has to be a direct loser on the other side(ie someone else could just be intiating a buy order and closes it later on for a profit also). The idea is when someone is buying someone has to sell. There is always someone on the other side making it a zero sum game. Then you add in spreads and commissions and it is negative zero. Every transaction works the same in that way.
Thanks for the clarification, Mike! From the perspective of money not coming from anywhere, I agree (indeed, if ALL trades on a particular day made profit, where would the money come from )
not quite sure what you mean there? If you have questions about some forex structure just shoot me a PM
Inside bars are tricky tricky. This one is sitting on support, but also stuck b/w two bigger levels that have been clear s/r. This pair has been choppy for a long time now making it even more difficult.
Which pairs do you think are the least choppy at the moment?
Thanks,
Hey Duke
In terms of just generally less choppy pairs, most of the yen pairs a lot of the usd based also. They might not be trending hard, but they are swinging nice b/w some key levels which I prefer
Eur/cad is just more overall choppy to get to where it wants to go(see a daily chart zoomed out)
Here was what I meant about stuck b/w two levels
a bunch of strong zones, followed by side to side price action and choppy movements. Very unappealing to me until something clear pops up
Thanks for sharing Pip. Everyone has been in your shoes or will be in your shoes at some point. Any of us who now can pull profit from the market have had many many months/years of being sick to our stomach with tears in our eyes. Then you have times in the learning curve where you think you might be there, and then all of a sudden you find yourself back at the starting line. It is just part of it. Those that come out the other end realize that it was a journey worth taking good or bad, but don't wish the process on ANYONE.
Glad to see you have an aha moment, going back and following James' course of action.
There are some more trades that failed apart from AUDUSD also NZDUSD BEOB, and USDJPY doesn't look great neither and so on...
THese aren't failed trades. All of these went to where we would have expected, since none of them were A+++ trades. For that reason, we have to be much more careful how we manage. We can't just enter and assume they will blast off.
So IMO, there are very few flat out failed trades, only mis managed trades. Yes we all will have losses, but we can't blame the charts.
usd/jpy went to a lot of clear bar lows. A lot of people asked me if I was taking this and I told them no b/c of the mess above. Now that doesn't mean others didn't take it and get out with some profit, or out at b/e. But if you held past this area, you have to respect the fact that it could have been rejected here. So in other words, you have to make a consious decision to hold past this type of area. A great example of this was the recent NZD/USD daily bar, that was tradingi into a few bar highs, but I held through it believing the area was stronger to work past. There was an initial bounce that almost invalidated my trade. I recorded this trade live in real time, and said prior to entering that it IS entirely possible our trade bounces there, and if it does we HAVE to understand why. Maybe I will put that up in the guest section. So yes the trade turned around in my favor, but I knew going into it , it could have bounced at that point. It is up to the individual trader to determine there trade mgmt, that fits them.
Mike, out of curiosity, if you don't mind, are you ever interested in how a bar was formed? For instance, you see a daily bar, are you going to lower time frames, to see how exactly it was formed. I notice a lot of the really clean looking set ups, in terms of how the bar was formed, hold a lot of power. Whereas some of the daily trades, when going to lower timeframes, and not forming in such a clean manner, don't seem to work as well. For instance, xyz shots up during a stretch of 23 hours, completely 360 the next hour, forms a pinbar.... these...
Nope I don't really personally do anything like that, as my focus is on location first. But I have seen others do that.
If somebody took profit on USDJPY I would be very surprised as it gave maybe 10 pips, which is nothing in compare to 200pips SL. The same with NZDUSD but what is important to say , there is always some bar high or bar low and of course we can use it to justify failed bars.
However, there is never discussion about bar high or low if trade is a winner and price didn't bounce from it. It is very subjective and lets be honest, ambiguity is not very good if we are looking for consistency.
While this may feel like the case to you the better setups are not close to this. Consistency comes from practice and experience many of us uave spent years getting. I know from your PMs and posts you are in a very frustrated state but you have to let that go to better absorb and put into practice the info. All three of your mentioned trades i passed on due to the exact situation occuring. Is it possible it wouldnt? Of course but my experience kept me out. Eventually you will be able to distingush these things before hand and will see the difference b/w trades.
I sent you just one non trading related PM. Buy I wouldn't say these setups were not valid. Why is it so difficult to accept that this method gives also losers ?
alter
Of course there will be losers. I am speaking directly about the 3 trades you called failed trades, and about them. The PM you sent me was directly trade related as it questioned the validity of price action.
Just trying to help
Mike
and as a side note my win rate hovers in the upper 60%, while I know traders in the 90%. Doesn't make one more right then the other in terms of profitability. Trade mgmt is an individual thing. Calling any trade failed without digging deeper into the chart first is likely to place blame on the charts, when we need to just keep studying to get better at our business.
Mike-mbqb
Looks like a nice pinbar on EU. Been waiting patiently as a PA newbie for a setup to come long.
Can you rate it?
Thanks in Advance
Hey Nook
On my chart it close very poorly. While the open and close are still within the prior bar, when the close is that much higher and not within the body, I don't give much wait to the bar. Especially on the size of it. I don't see any significant reason for a reversal here, and there area many bar highs below in this uptrend. If you zoom your chart out a bit, you can see the weight and importance of the bar looks a lot less appealing. I would rate it on the mbqb11 scale of death a D The only real thing it has going for it is the divergence, which with a pin that ugly isn't a good enough trade for me on the H4
I agree with this analysis. I did have an order in on IBFX for a little as I thought it over but cancelled. The bar on IBFX had a better close and was appealing beacuase of the 1.38 round number that has been S/R in the past. I had TP1 at those bar highs and would move stops to BE on the rest right there. Canclled thoough.
I have only been trading live for 3.5 months and I am a dead BreakEven Trader. I definitely think I understand the material more and more each day but I think it is trades like these that I need to stay out of to make it to...
THis post is awesome Dave has a lot of points that I 100% agree with!
Just something I was mulling over, have you ever done a study of price as a line.. say closing price. Then compared it with the tradeable pin bars. What I am getting at, is possibly that the pin bar is not the best qualifier and one of the ways to check into that would be to find an archive of pin bars... and then compare those to charts of price lines for the similar time the pin bar was forming. Just a thought.
Hey Lou
Nope never done anything like that. I have spent thousands of hours with the charts, that I know it is all about location, and now I know exactly the look of the price bars I want. For me it is such a visual habit now, I don't even realize it(pretty sick LOL).
But sounds interesting but tedious, and I am a very lazy man!
Thanks for the words of encouragement Mike, always means alot. But I am just seeing things differently as I learn each day.
Also I know you hear this alot but: HOW BOUT THEM YANKEES! I was there on Monday and Tuesday, great games. My friend even got on the Modells Trivia lolol
Bundyraider, thanks so much for your post on the formations behind the pins. As a newbie learner, I'm definitely going to brush up my formation knowledge and take a look at the "behind the pins" action. Thanks so much for sharing
Mike, I'm also interested in hearing why you have a 60% win rate, is it because you don't move stops to BE, waiting for the big move? In terms of moving stops, I've found that I prefer to either catch a move or get stopped. So often price retraces beyond the BE point and then moves on. Of course, I'm still...
Hi Pricey
It is simply b/c of my trade management style. I hover around the 65% win rate mark. I tend to trail out a lot of my trades making them larger winners. It is just where I am comfortable. Some months I have higher win rate others lower. You can have all kinds of traders. One of my systems has a win rate in the 30%. Again it comes down to R:R after that point. Gotta do what is comfortable for you. I sitll use the components in the same way.
60% win rate is a great result if your trades take you to beyond 5:1 R/R, which is possible with good setups. if you can catch the bottom of a wave then there are higher chances, if you can stomache that, of catching in excess of 10:1. My latest trade on the USD/JPY short was about a 24 pip risk which I exitted last night at support for a total of close to 9:1 R/R.
Ive seen some guys around, a couple in particular who have managed trades with greater than 25:1 R/R on some trades. It takes a good setup and some luck for things like that too happen,...
5:1 on a 60% win rate would be absolutely phenomenal. At a 60% win rate your trades could go 1:1 and you would still make good money. You don't need 5:1 and beyond on a 60% winrate or even close.
To be honest I don't think most people really understand their methods or win/rate and R:R on the long run of a system.
The best thing I've read related win loss % etc is Chapter 6 Understanding Expectancy and Other Keys to Trading Success in Trade your way to Financial Freedom by Van K Tharp. He has an analogy with a snowball fight and trading related to expectancy and money management that is very good. A must read for a new traders. In fact I think the holy grail is a positive expectant system and money management.
ok my last post on this subject and ends with a big smile
My brother is VERY happy with a 1% edge, do the math.
Playing 80k a hour through a machine, about 1200 hands a hour that 1% sure adds up Plus the comps lol
After lurcking quite a while on this thread I have decided to go to action (in demo) and try for myself.
I am decided to trade only weekly/daily PA for the next 3 months until I am pretty confident with trade entries and exit strategies.
On my feed (alpari UK) there was this PB on the daily for AUD. It is not a A+ PB, but I would still clasify it as A.
Things I like:
- Location: Just at a weekly/daily PPZ
- Location: PPZ is a round number 0.7700
- Low of the PB is below the PPZ
Things I don't like:
- Nose is not long enough
- There is not...
Hey Lapin,
Your "things I don't like" should have kept you out of this one. If you look at the bar by itself it will tell you a lot where you won't even have to dig deeper into it. The lack of nose shows really no significance. Instead this small bar takes on the look of a more neutral looking bar, or a bar that simply "paused" so to speak. We want to look for the clear indications of a reversal at a point like this. If you look your chart is clearly in a strong trending market. So a small bar with no nose would equal no trade.
A great deal of simple yet powerful truths to this post that will simply be missed by many that are not ready in their journey to take in yet
Thanks Rubin
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
Thanks for sharing your numbers Mike.
I think I'm realizing more and more that the huge 5:1 R:R and 90% win rate are not within reach of us regular mortal traders.
However, I think that when you find your edge in trading it will be a small edge. Sort of like the casinos having a 51% edge on the Roulette wheel. They lose a lot of times...but they always come back on top due to their small edge. I feel that this might be the "secret" of trading if there was one. If you give a small trader a nice but small edge he won't know what to do with it...
Im a newbie here and so far i have blown up 4 demo accounts, of course each time i blow a account i learn something from it. but when i started reading FF forums and threads the whole horizon of trading upon to me. I would thank to all the members who are contributing to this thread. The compilation done for the benefit of the newbies, just shows how much your guys care about us the newbies.
Thanks allot guys. Cheers and happy pipping.
Regards
Yk
" A master in the making"
Hey Yk
Welcome. Glad to see you using the powers of a demo account and blowing up there. Many have not been so smart in the beginning(for better or worse). Keep practicing and taking things slow.
Hey LD
Denarii and Mark answered your questions great. As complicated as things seem to you right now. As you work through this thread slowly(which is where your time is best spent for now, not trading, reading). It will all slowly become more clear. I think a lot of people coming from wherever they were before on these forums can be a bit taken back by the information and get scared off.
If you starting trading the daily timeframe you will not need anything more then a 15-20 mins a day to scan your charts. It really takes me maybe 3-5 minutes to scan my daily charts. Reading price action slowly becomes like reading another language. At first you can read a few words, then you can form a few sentences, but it takes awhile to be able to write your own story. Jarroo better like that metaphor or I quit
There are no hard and fast rules, and that is what throws a lot of people. Examples
-One persons B+ pinbar, can be someone elses A+ pinbar
- You can set your stop above/below the price bar(which is what most people do ), but others might set their stops based on the left eye of a bar(you will know what that is eventually. Others might use a fib to set their stop.
-some people enter on the break of a bar(ie if you are shorting a pinbar they wait till the low is taken out), this is the way the majority of us do it. Also a bar is not valid till it breaks(vice versa it is not invalid until that high is taken out). But other people enter on a retrace in order to increase their position size.
So as you can see their are different styles and many nuances. What you should make your job right now is to work through this thread slowly. Take notes, whatever you have to do. You need to focus on a few key concepts that is price bar formations. Recognizing the good from the bad. And support and resistance. Then forms of confluence(round numbers, fibs, divergence) Now these concepts have many layers to them, but that is basically all we do.
Like understanding to read a chart there is no easy way to answer trade mgmt. As you get through reading this thread a little at a time you will realize this. THis is why it isn't do , this , this , this and make money. There are many little nuances.
I know you and many others have jobs/lives/etc and your time is precious and you want to be able to trade as fast as possible, but my best advice is to shift your mindset from wanting to trade , to just absorbing and reading right now.
Also check out some of the guest videos after you spend some time here, they will help bring to life a lot of these concepts
Best of luck!
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by lddd
thanks jim i?ved read it for sure. but i am missing some important information specially for beginners who do not have much experience with trading at all like where to set stops and where to book profit for e.g.
Let?s say i would like to start looking at the daily timeframe chart for GPD/USD or EUR/USD. First i would like to know in your experience how much time a day you have to spend looking at a chart actually when trading on a daily chart and how much trades you can expect to find for a good entry based on your patterns....
Hey Mic could you please send me ling or explaination for the A+ setup , A and B setup ?
thanks for your help
Hey Alkhatarey
Jigsaw is correct. Everyone has a different view of an A setup. And mine also changes from timeframe/style, and is just not as clean cut as posting one chart. If you work your way through this thread you will see what I mean by this. I do have a video called pinbar introduction on the guest section, where I give a more basic idea of the difference b/w an A trade, B trade etc. That might be more for what you need at this time.
Best of luck
Mike
Also just want to pay my respects and thanks to all the soldiers/veterans and those that we have lost. You have my deepest respect and thanks for everything you do and my prayers are with those still serving to come back safe.
well ok, you?re all right and sure i will demo some moth before going live with any money again So you think it?s nor possible to make a living of a quite small amount of money when trading only the 2-4 a++ setups a month? With "living"...
Hey LD
It is impossible to tell you what you will make in ROI. These are all the questions that a new trader wants to hear as clean and cut answers. But as you progress along the curve realize what they actually mean.
Please can anyone see an obvious reason that this pinbar failed yesterday?
cheers.
hey k
If you look to the left of the bar price is very choppy and this pin is not in space. So when we have this especially on the hour timeframe we have traffic. Now the even bigger reason to not take this trade was the major holiday in the US. This is a good time not to trade as most of the action wont be there.
Thanks a lot Mike. Good learning for me. How about this one, just happened.
hey
Again be careful here k. This is what will hurt new traders on these low timeframes. Make sure to read james' first post it is very important. This is a very slow time in the markets. Trading a small pin like that is just not smart IMO. But again it bounced at multiple bars low as expected. But time of day alone should keep you out of this one.
Thanks Mike.
Only one thing I don't understand..
"But again it bounced at multiple bars low as expected"
Why it is so expected? Please share.
Cheers.
here is a chart for ya
don't worry you are at the very very early stages of price action. You are at the I see a price bar and trade that bar. Next you need to learn about what makes a good bar from a bad bar. Then more importantly location, etc. It comes with time and experience
hi mark, "just a round number" to me is just the same as a guess!! should nt there be more of a reason than that!!??even round numbers will be ignored in favour of horizontal PPZs.Its just that in case ,to me,the round number seems to be hanging in mid air and holds no real significance.?
cheers
believe it or not, there doesn't need to be a bigger reason then that The psychological impact of a round number is enough to create orderflow
Also many of your PPZs, are created b/c of the round number, not the other way around
I was looking at the aud-usd as well. I didn't like this one as much. It appeared to have alot of traffic above the pin, but it pushed through.
I was just curious what your thoughts were...
Thanks
Hey Layton
These two pairs are highly correlated. So they were both saying bullish. When that happens I agree with you to take the much more clear one. No sense getting over exposed. Of the two, NZD was much more "clear" in terms of the PA. Both your charts are very well done
Nice pin on Eur/Jpy or am i missing something again ?
yes be careful here. This is more of a BUOB of sorts with a poor close(since the close is still high up on the bar). A bullish pin can not have a higher high then the previous bar.
Please see this daily chart. i see here yesterday pin bar is long nose, open and close is at the bottom. This is a sign for short as i read in pin bar introduction this is for beginner to play. I have waiting this pin bar for a month now. lol
Thanks
Hey Allergic(what are you allergic too ? )
Actually this is a BEOB. Notice how the low of that bar, has a lower low then the previous bar. This turns it from a pin to a BEOB. Now also note that this bar is at the bottom(or swing low). We want to find these bars at swing highs. This isn't to say they can't be played as continuations, but the best way to start is to learn it how James teaches, which is to find this bar at a swing high point.
Thanks Mike for the reply. I just want to ask about entering the market, since waiting for the good pin bar, im entering the market everyday from the morning and exit when i get profit,(this is not what james16 is teaching). the things is im still asking myself that im goin right or not. My styles for entering the market is im looking the open for today which is the left eye, and when i see the right eye is 10pip above or 10pip below the left eye i will go long and vice versa. Is this
correct?? Since i read james16, my trading is become good. I...
Hey A
I am not quite sure I get your question, so please re-ask if I missed it. Are you asking when should we enter price action?
Here is a trade I took and just got burned on . . . 4 hour pin on Cad/jpy. At this point, I am done trading anything lower than daily. I am sick and tired of getting burned . . .
Yeah this bar is simply the shape of a pin. It has very little significance in size or location. These will burn you over and over on the lower timeframes. Sticking to the higher timeframes is tye best idea till you can conquer that.
Still not seeing any A+ setups on the dailies/weeklies........been a few weeks now without a trade. Doesn't seem to be many pins about at the moment. When this is happening it is oh so tempting to go down to the lower TFs, but I'm going to stick it out for my 3 month period and see where that takes me,
berti
Hey Berti
Yes it can get us ansty but it pays to be patient. Just one poor decision to feed the need to trade and we start digging ourselves in a hole. It has been a very slow month. But hey that just means more time for other things
Thanks my friend.
Are you profitable now? How long do you think it takes to master it in your opinion.
Currently, I keep making mistakes, and only realise afterwards. Not much results are completely unexplanable really.
How long to become profitable? What if I told you it will take you a year? You would probably still keep at it. But the real question to ask yourself, what if it takes you 2, 3, 4, 5, 6? 7+ years?
Again the focus has to shift from the questions like: How long? How much can I make? etc. Those thoughts are what really distract the mind from just learning. If you are serious, and this is something you want to learn. It shouldn't matter how long.
This post might be a huge buzz kill for some, but the reality check will serve you(a general you), far greater. Everyone has a different learning curve. Since being involved with the j16 group, I have seen some people that just blow me away with how fast they pick things up. Others take longer. A lot of people just refuse to takes James16's advice and demo 3 months consec on daily/weekly. They stay stubborn for as long as it takes them to get there ego under control and then they finally decide to do that.
No simple answer here, but focus on what James preaches, he is a smart man!
For most of them, the market will drain their accounts until all that's left is demo trading
Yep, most need a swift kick in the ass before things click. Others will be far gone at that point. But if a bunch of new people happen to catch my post or the many others who plead them to not, it is all worth it
Trading on 3 min, no wonder it took you 5 years to break even, anything below 1 hour is gambling you may get lucky for a while but over the long term you wont be profitable.
Careful, this is far from true. It's just most people that start on the lower timeframes have not a clue what they are doing, and it will chop you down very very quickly.
Im not sure I agree with you Mike, your stop is going to be much smaller and spread becomes a much bigger part of your trade, a simple 20 pip spike and your out.
Really trading is no different on the lower timeframes. You are still using the same concepts. You just have to be able to go through the decision making process faster. I have successfully traded the 5/15 for awhile. I simply stopped b/c it is too much chart watching for my liking. Once you get good at daily/weekly and 4hr/1hr etc, you can use all the same concepts if one chooses. Price isn't as erratic as people make it out to be. It is all relative to the timeframe you are on. Same with MM, If you have a 25 pt stop, and price moves say 28 pips to cover spread and commissions you now made 1%(if that was your risk). I am not promoting new traders do this. Just debunking another myth.
Again this is just from watching thousands of hours of charts.
95 mark on usd/jpy is PPZ. On the 15min this zone is still clearly confirmed. We can see two price action bars right off this flip. Had I covered up the timeframe, it could be a h1 etc
The reality also is a good method should be able to work under different conditions like timeframes.
I bow to your experience but as you say you need to be in front of the screen for long hours, over the long term I think it would be difficult to be on the ball all the time. Why do it, as you say you can make 1% on anytime frame.
won't argue that point. I enjoy not having to stare at the screens for minutes at a time. It reminds me too much of my online poker days :P
But as is said the lower the time frame the less significant PA bars become surley there is a point where they are meaningless, I would say anything under 5 mins is at that point, and anything under 1 hour you need to be picking great bars.
The same rules apply. Picking great bars. Being conservative with your entries. Understanding location, and understanding trade management. Most new traders come, open up the 5min, and just start firing off left and right. Lose a few, revenge trade a lot, and their account is 50% gone. Come on I know someone is reading this and doing that.
James' advice on page 1, is GOLDEN. And this is a good time to say read post 1 for those that are reading this !
lol I woulndt mind being in Vegas staring at the poker table and driking beer all day though.
yeah vegas playing for fun drinking with friends can't beat that. When I played online I had 4-8 tables open at once, and i swear I didn't blink for 5-10hours LOL
LOL, I have a friend that his job is betting sports and he has over 100k that is owed to him for shady sites, I will say he put up 5k on Adam in American Idol and lost it, thought he was a shoe in on that.
yeah they just need to regulate it like anything else, would bring a ton of revenue to this country. They bounced a few checks on me now, so after this last one I gave up. I liked that site cause all the sportsbetters would be on tilt late at night after all the games ended and would come give away their money in poker :P
I did a test with Sportsbook. Took $25 to $300 in about a week. Played some Sit n Go's and a few low fee entries to their huge tourneys and came in top 5 twice. Requested a check for $150 which I got a few weeks later, but it bounced. Second check bounced too. I love playing low stakes games to practice money management skills, but my days of putting real money on those sites are over. So now I just open $250 forex accounts instead to practice different money management strategies. Hehe
ive made thousands from them, they paid up until recently
Here is a question for you Mike. Would several factors of confluence ever influence your decision to take a short nosed bar in that trade on Cable? Such as round number + fibs + divergence + swing high/low + room to run + all this happening on lunar eclipse bla, blah....... I ask because when I saw this bar, I could hear my inner Fudd tell me "the nose is too short-------next trade opportunity pwease". Thanks bro!
K.I.S.S.
very rarely will I ever. Usually if the bar doesn't do it for me I will pass. Sometimes I will trade it depending on the situation and just be much more conservative with my exits etc. This was close to being a trade, but just not quite for "my rules".
Do you compare the size of the Pin with the size of the bars immediately preceding it or with an ATR? I agree that the GBP/USD is smaller than the previous bars which are around 300 pips and the Pin is around 160 pips. I think it would be useful if we use context rather than saying "too big" or "too small" which can be ambiguous. For ex. If Pin size < ATR(5) then it's too small...just as a guidance at least.
That CAD/JPY was brutal one...reversed immediately. Glad I wasn't at my computer to look at these set-ups...
Rubin.
Hey Rubin
I suppose one could use an ATR, but again that is adding in something else. For me it is just experience of looking at the chart and the bar in context to previous PA. This is one reason why I keep my chart more zoomed out then zoomed in. If we are too zoomed in a bar can look more significant then it really is. I am sure using some sort of ATR would work, but at this point in my trading, I can visually see the "things" I am looking for. You might often notice when someone has their chart zoomed in and asking about a bar, the first thing I say is zoom out a few clicks
I will say I read many of the journals and posts today and most people were able to identify that this was a small nose pin. It was then up to them to decide if their was enough reason to still enter it or not. So that is always a good thing.
Hi,
I am keep reading and re-reading this great thread trying to get the substance of it while demo trading.
I would like to ask a question about my understanding of PA to the senior traders there.
I more and more I learn, the more I believe that PA helps a lot to time your entry point in a trend. Am I right or wrong? Playing PA countertrends could make your account bleeding while playing the trend will make money fly in, isn't it?
No I understand the famous market quote "the trend is your friend"
Did I get one of those aha moment or...
Hey Lapin,
You can get burnt both ways. It is simply understanding when to take a trade. Counter trend trades are very profitable, just most people aren't patient to wait for strong signals and try to fight a very strong trend with iffy bars, and no confluence. So really my simple answer is both ways can burn you and both can make you money. It is simply location and the content of the price action that will matter in the end.
Thanks for your patience teaching us.
In the last weeks reading the thread, lots of stuffs start to make sense to me.
it can be such a pleasure when you can see what you are learning start to happen the way you are expecting...
I'm looking for the indicator for MT4 that shows the price next to the FIB numbers. I'm sure someone posted this a while ago but I've looked through the attachments and cannot find it.
Can anybody help?
Thanks
Ljr
Hey Ljr
This is simply done by going to your fib properties(right click the fib). Then in the fibo levels tab double click in the description and next to them place %$
I thought the same thing when I saw Jim's charts, you could easily point out reasons not to take those trades based on prior bar lows/highs. Jim doesn't seem to care about prior consolidation whereas Mike will look at that.
I guess this just goes to show that you could trade this method in hundreds of variations, based on what set-ups you take, stop and TP levels you use. So you can easily be profitable as well as a losing trader with the same general method.
It really is just experience and ones personal trading method. The problem people run into, is trying to find a one size fits all for every trade without understanding the dynamics that each individual trade presents. Over time the concepts become much more clear then they can ever be early on.
I wanted to add something here about the minimum requirements based on my own experience.
Daily and weekly forex trading as we do here is a low frequency trading strategy especially if we are super picky like we're taught. Mbqb11 for example had his last daily/weekly forex trade around 6 weeks ago (can't remember if you posted that here or PF Mike and if you want me to edit to remove it I will).
Think about that for a moment. If you're trying to trade like Mike and be super picky (an admirable objective) and you don't get a daily/weekly trade...
I agree with this post Aaron. Just a few points of clarification. I might be super picky on daily/weekly but I trade much more on the 4hr and 1hr. It is simply where I am comfortable. I am much more comfortable waiting for 3-5 daily/weekly trades, while spending most of my trading on the h4, and h1. For those that only trade on the daily/weekly you might sitll only take 3-5 a month, or maybe 1-2, or maybe 10. It comes down to your strategy as a whole.
The outlined process by James, isn't a mathematical formula to success. It really is common sense. If after 3 months of demo you had 3 consecutive months, and you did things the right way. Well that is 3 solid months of not fooling yourself to think you are ready to trade. Then you move to a SMALL live account. Well where are you after another 3-6 months. Like you said a losing month doesn't mean failure. Things need to be looked at as a whole. I ended up this month 1.86% That could have EASILY been a losing month(in fact a last couple trades saved it). So because the prior 4 months were winning months, say that was a losing month does that now mean everything prior is a waste and it's back to the drawing board. Of course not as you said, it is the whole of your trading. The demo- small live process, is to keep one in the game and from fooling themselves. The reality is most people that can spend enough time with this now understand that it needs to be taken serious. It is those that think after 2-3 weeks of good trades, they are ready to open their 50k 100k account and pick out their next car. The number 1 thing I take from that process from James, is the ability to see this as a business and not a game.
Here is my first analysis on the GBP/CHF weekly chart.
I spot an PB with a good confluence that suport it:
- it's on an area of PPZ
- we have a round number 1.7500
- we have confluence with 61.8 fib number
- if we look at the bigger picture we see that it in a down trend
So I say that this is an A tread.I will manage this tread on the weekley chart because here we spot the PB,but I'm concerned about this large time frame so I think that will see some ret. and to paly this PB on the ret not on the break of it.How do you guys play it on a ret do you...
Hey Tiger
Just wanted to welcome you to the thread and throw up a chart to this.
Technically speaking this is a pin. But is it a good pin? Your reasons of concerns are very valid and important ones.
If we just zoom out a bit(which is something I always stress), we can see the importance of this pin really goes down. A few lines shows a great deal. This pair has basically been winding up real tight. So is it possible this pin is the tip off for another break lower? Yes it might be. But it is really worth to trade such a small pin that is stuck b/w a rock and a hard place? My answer would personally be no.
Again welcome and glad to see you posting questions
I thought you only trade the daily and bigger time frames. I didn't know you alos trade the 1 and 4h time frames.
Nope I have traded the 4hr/1hr for a very very long time. The majority of my trades come from the 4hr and 1hr and I take a very small number of daily/weekly trade setups a month(as the timeframe would indicate). Just one daily trade the whole month of may. I take only what the timeframes, and pairs offer.
You should post some of your recent 4hr stups! Would be interesting to see if any of yours match up with any of mine!
Yeah I do post 4hr and rarely one hours from time to time here. I try to refrain from that as I feel it is a bit beyond the scope of the intentions of this thread.
-if you ONLY ever traded daily/weekly time frames, would your entry requirements remain unchanged? Or, do you think that in the absence of the 1 hour/4 hour trades, that your fingers may become a little 'itchy'?
Thanks.
Personally no. Simply b/c it is where my comfort zone is at. If I ever trade only the 3-5 daily/weeklies a month and nothing else I would still trade it the same, but I assume at that point my account would be much larger
Guys i would like to hear your opinion based on an excerp from the book trading in the zone by Alexander elder; Trading for a living.
"A person who makes 25% profit anually is king on wall street.Many top-flight money managers would give away their firstborn child to be able to top this.(lol) A trader who can double his money in a year is a star- as rare as a pop musician or a top athlete. if you set modest goals for yourself you can go very far."
"Extensive testing has shown that the maximum amount a trader may loose on a single trade without...
yep this is the REALITY of trading. Most don't want to hear it and many will turn a blind eye to reading it b/c it shatters those original reasons why many find forex.
Person who makes 25% on wall street is king because he trades 74 millions USD account. I'm not sure if he would be the king with 10-20 000USD account as well. Would he be?
king or not
It is just reality. If the top wall street guys are trading on huge accounts they also are trading with a lot less risk. So the individual trader has more risk per trade, which means bigger drawdowns and larger ROI. But no one is making 100% a month consistently and those that are shooting for those pipe dreams are going to come up ridiculously short in the long run. The basic idea is to be reasonable and realistic about trading. It is not the casino to those of us that respect it for the business it is
That's an important point, especially for newer traders. Some people lose the game before they even start playing. They lose by either setting unrealistic goals, or getting too disappointed/discouraged when they hear some truth coming their way about what to expect as far as profit goes.
If you're in the black instead of red, you're miles ahead of almost everyone else. Do that consistently and take it from there. You will then succeed.
I would be very cautious here. Though I agree it looks like a good pinbar setup, there is a very strong down trend pushing this thing and I've seen many levels of support disrespected by this pair. I would recommend tight stops and TPs in the long direction. The bounce could be short lived.
I very much agree and was the focus of my chat today. Just because there is a pin at a swing low does NOT mean it is an automatic reversal. Size does Matter, and in order to catch a falling knife a bar should be large and substantial. These little tiny pins at the bottom can be nothing more then a short lived pause. Those that play it, need to respect that and move stops very quickly.
Thanks for your comments Mike... I see your point with a falling knife. I just wonder if it hit the countertop, causing it to stop falling...Looks like a strong retrace/continuation downward right now anyway...
Josh
What I was saying to a few people today is. Yes maybe this is the support line. But if it is, wouldn't you want to see more substance in buying. Remember a pinbar doesn't represent a reversal. It represents buying and selling. I try to think about what actually the bar represents. A bigger bar at a good area shows substance. A small bar can show many things making the trade less of a probability. Do I want to try to pick a bottom with a small bar or a big bar? As a side note, the last time usd/cad was falling through the floor, there were many of these so-so pinbars. There was a near riot because about 3 of them in a row didn't offer much. People could not understand why. Then there was a huge bar indicating a reversal. I will let you all research that
Mike, I have been away for a month and today is my first day back. was the chat you mentioned on the PF?
Just now getting into everything and perhaps over-anxious seeing 2 potential daily PBs.
How about my original thought. For example sake, assume that both trades are a good setup. Assume that i trade with a 2% risk factor. Both trades are highly negatively correlated. So is it two trades at 2%, one at 2% or two at 1%.
Will wait for the daily close before I really decide what i will do.
Thanks
Brian
Welcome back brian, yes this was a webinar chat.
Depends on your trade rules. If I see 2 amazing pinbars, and I want to take them both and they are highly correlated. usually I just end up taking the best one. If they are both amazing I trade them both at full risk(mine is 1% a trade). Those trading 2% a trade, might want to split it up. This is part of what works for you. I would be cautious to ever get over exposed.
31 is by far a great time to still learn to trade. Even if it takes you 9 years you are only 40. Some people learn to trade much much later in life and it is still very much worth their cause. There will always be a market to trade, if it isn't currencies, commodities, if not commodities something. Markets have been around for way to long to ever just disappear.
Take it very SLOW, and don't feel a rush to hit that finish line.
What percent profit do you suggest i should be targeting before switching from demo to live?
There isn't really a right answer here. You should be targeting consistency, and confidence in a method. But the basic plan is 3 months consecutive profitable months on demo. Some might want to have 6 months of demo and have confidence and consistency in a method. Then you don't just move your whole equity and go for it. Then do a small live account, and see where you are in another 3-6 months. What you will learn about yourself and your methods over this time will tell you a lot about where one should go next.
How does everyone deal with the Sunday bars? Seems they just get in the way. This is talking on the daily TF's
Most of us just ignore them as if they didn't even occur. Others visually combine them with the friday bar, or find a broker that doesn't have them. I just ignore them, personally
where i stand was an inland sea and seashore several hundred million years ago.
you can go anywhere around here and find seashells from then. the damn things have been laying there for hundreds of millions of years. it boggles my mind.
about an hour south of here you can stand in a creek and look at dinosour tracks laid down 60 million years ago. the damn thing ran over that same spot 60 million years ago and would have eaten me in one bite. that boggles my mind.
about that time europe and...
this stuff keeps me up way to much. Then you start thinking about Space. Man, it freaks me out in a weird way, way to much
A suggestion that most of us tend to do is to keep timeframes separate. Since the movements are made up of waves occurring on all timeframes this can often contradict each other. A very simple way to deal with this is to try to simply enter and exit off the same timeframe for the most part. This way if you are trying to trade a weekly bar, you don't find yourself pulling your hair out on the hourly bars. Of course it will depend on your style, but it can be kept as simple as that, which takes away a lot of that analysis paralysis that you would run into otherwise.
Best
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by jplo
Hi Shemenator....
Are you gonna be looking only for shorts or if it resumes its uptrend are you gonna looking for longs as well?
In this last case, Would you wait until the retrace trendline were broken?
For me this is a kind of timeframe confusing mixture signals....
Weekly... It seems like has made a PB over a PPZ and SMA 200, but anyway, price is uptrending...
4H... Looks like price is in a retracement channel waiting for a breaking to the upside to resume its dialy and weekly uptrend, even when it has broken the uptrendline, nut not...
Thank you Mike....
This happens to me very frecuently... When I see "valid" signals in many TF for the same pair...
I stay telling me... "I saw a good sign on the 4H TF, but what if the good one is that on the 1H, or the other one on the weekly, or on the daily?....
And uffff......
I cannot deal with this, but I'm gonna try to do it your way... only looking at one TF......
Thanks, really helps me
Just another note also. Watch when James posts a chart. He calls it day trading off the daily chart. He will enter on the daily, you can find the potential trouble ares, and that is how you build your trade mgmt plan. Of course different styles will have their own little tweaks. But Jim is a simple guy and if he started trying to be all fancy and finesse a trade in every single small way he would go crazy too I might guess. Always keep it simple in trading. That is probably my best advice, no matter how you decide to do things
Dunno if you guys saw my earlier post above but I did take the trade.
I was about 130 pips at one point and then set my SL to BE....
Hey Tom
Welcome to the thread. This type of bar is what I categorize a quick hitter. Meaning, if you are to play this type of bar which has not created a great deal of space(meaning some traffic), that it has to be a situation where you move your stops to b/e quick, or get out of profit rather early. This isn't to say this bar won't continue to run, but there is enough to turn it around that one has to be cautious about.
Here is my chart with the area marked, that needs to be watched where this trade could have turned around completely. This is the point where something must be done IMO, with a bar of this size, and location.
Just my views and glad you are enjoying the thread
Just wanted to leave a quick note before disapearing for a while.
I have been an avid reader/part time poster on the thread for the last 2 1/2 years and feel it's time to drop off for a while.
Jim, thanks so much for your help both here and in the PF and also a big thanks to Mike and everyone else who has been so giving of their time
I will still be hunting for my A+ setups but feel it's time to move on from the forum and minimise outside influences in order to become even more picky
take care all and thanks again
FXP
take care Nick, and hope you will keep in touch either here or via email
Take care friend both in trading and life and don't become too much of a stranger
I was looking at this pair also, 4hr looks bearish, Daily looks good for long.
Could that pin bar, be a pinocchio?
Need more experienced chart reading eyes to comment pls.
Of course I am not giving trade advice here, but from a conservative point of view, price has been falling quite hard, and now we have a pin that although near a swing low is in heavy traffic(notice the price action to the left of the pin). When there is this much traffic to me a much stronger sign is when the nose at least protrudes and makes a new low clearing out anything below. This ones make me weary at best and are one of those James16/Jarroo, kill it quick type trades if there isn't a hard break if you ask me.
Welcome to the thread. Few comments. Careful this is probably the most common mistake. This bar is actually only a TBH(two bar high - if 7pip difference is ok to you). For it to be a DBHLC, the close has to be LOWER then the previous bars LOW. How did you manage this trade? I will post a chart after to show where I see the trouble spots
Best
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by alifari
Hi,
This is my first post on this thread. I am attaching a chart for a short trade I did on Demo. Would appreciate your comments. Here are my reasons to go short on this trade.
1) Double Bar High Lower Close (7 Pips difference)
2) Price close to Daily 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Swing High July 15, 2008 & Low October 27, 2008).
3) Price only reached twice above 50% retracement. First time on December 18, 2008 touching 61.8 but closed with pinbar between 61.8 & 50 FIB. Second time on December 26, 2008 crossed 50% FIB but closed below with...
I've been trying a few things with forex markets for a month, some reading, some research, found myself a broker, opened a small account and then found this thread just before I could do something really stupid. And for that I shall be eternally grateful.
I'm reading it from both ends and it will take a while. Have tried a few demo trades as well (my live accound stayed untouched) and you can see the difference immediately.
But here is my first question. I have managed to get into that weekly GBPUSD pin just...
Hey Primi
Welcome to the thread, many many many of us wish we found James as early as you. Happy for you that you did.
EMAs may vary broker to broker. Some brokers do not have the sunday bar which will shift the EMA. It is not Magic in and of itself, but simply another "tool" to be aware of of possible areas that have other confluence or reasons price may "react" around.
Close, but no lunch this time.... needed 18 more pips.
It could be quite a fall....
.
bummer I knew you would be all over this one too. This was a raczekfx special. Still lesson learned here for everyone. Have your plan and trade it. Things don't always go the way you want it, and you move on to the next trade
Wow.. I also want to thank you for all your teaching. I never post but I am always here. You guys are like another family.
Hey James thank you and I love you brother.
Lucky for me I have got to speak to James personally many times. He is even more nice then he comes across posting, if that is possible to believe. The friendships this thread has brought me is incredible. So while we are saying thanks here is mine. Thank you all.
Hi,guys
Where can I find manual about James16's method?
Best regard!
Hey Yuyudada
There is no real manual, as the James16 is not a system but a method. I know stumbling into this thread one says, "holy crap this thing is long". But if you just start at page 1 and work your way through, slowly, by time you hit 200-300 pages your eyes will be wide open and you will not want to stop. There are some great posts pulled out and marked in post 1 on this thread as well. But just working through from start to finish is what I always recommend.
Look like nice bearish pins at s/r, pivot levels to this newbie.....
Expert advise appreciated
Hey Bryan
Just be careful with these bars. It probably will break down and move lower, but we HAVE to recognize all the bar lows/PPZ that it is trading into and react properly. This is a very choppy pair, thus the likelihood for a bounce is even greater IMO.
Tiaforex had given a fantastic account of SL.
I have a question about entry.
Whether it is for PB or double bars, it was mentioned that it is not valid until it is broken.
However, James had also mentioned that a retracement of even up to 50 level would be good as it reduces the stop loss.
My question is, do I wait for the bar to be broken, then retrace to 50 level, then enter, in that order?
There was a good post earlier with regards to aggressive entry eg at bar close, or conservative entry eg at 10 pips below bar break.
I would...
Hey Novice
The usual way to do a retracement entry in your example is buying on the retrace BEFORE the bar is broken. Like you said it is aggressive, but it has many benefits. And like all methods their are pluses and minuses. As long as we put it through the James16 minimum requirements, we are doing the right thing
Thanks for replying.
You are one of those I was hoping would answer my question.
Just so I understand, you would enter even though the bar was not broken (as some here would consider an unbroken bar as invalid) and enter on retracement. In that case, I suppose the selection of bar must be really stringent.
Yes exactly that is the "risk" you run with a retracement entry. You are trading an "unconfirmed bar". If the bar works well then you are getting a great price with a much better position size
I am still testing outside bars for ideas around tight stops and retrace entries so bear that in mind when I answer. As always your question sparked some other thoughts, so this is less of a direct reply and more of a riff on what you were talking about.
Outside bars are trickier because, more than any other type of bar, price tends to retrace into them. You can use that to your advantage by looking for a lower timeframe entry with good price action between the 50 and 61.8 fib say. The only time I would do that is with a daily price action...
Seeking Light perhaps? I seem to remember this too... that conversation seems to pop in my head around 4:00pm most trading days (when I start looking through daily charts deciding if anything is worthy of putting some cash at risk)...Good question to ponder...
"Why take anything less than the very best setups?"
Josh
Just to clarify Aaron was speaking about Fijitrader
What is an I46B? I know what an Inside Bar is but I don't know this one. I feel that I should know the answer, but maybe I missed school that day.
Thanks,
Rubin
Hey rubin
This is just an inside bar that has a range smaller then the previous X amount of bars. So an I4b is the fourth bar and has a smaller range then the previous 3 bars. You can have any number insid bar. Like I5b I6b ec.
Thanks Mike. So I46B means it has a smaller range than the previous 46 bars...wow? that's a lot of bars...
Yep, and a follow up post now that I am back to my computer.
What this means is simple. Ranges are decreasing over X amount of bars, which means price is consolidating, which means the likelihood to see a bigger breakout move increases(in general). So the idea is to find and get in on the breakout move where price finally breaks out of the decreasing daily range trap
Obviously not the end of the day here (UK) so anything could (and undoubtly will!) happen...
AUDCHF - plus side with the trend is around some long term (weekly) support - need to see where it finishes... not a massive nose tho..
NZDJPY - currently good looking pin with long nose... but in a area with plenty of noise.... no current trend - probabely not a viable trade
AUDCAD - not a bad pin but body is large (might get bigger...
Hey Tom
You will drive yourself crazy trying to look at the bar this long before it closes. As you can see things, can change at the drop of a hat. I know you are trying to analyze just to get used to it, but I highly recommend waiting till not long before the close when the main sessions have basically wrapped up. It makes things a lot easier and part of the nice part of trading the daily, you can check the charts once at the end of the day.
just wondering then when we all take our bar ends... I'm UK based (although part time trader) and I'm thinkin my bars will end at GMT so currently 11PM for me....
No worries Tom we have all had that questions.
The answer is there is NO official close time in forex b/c it is not a centralized market. So this means the bars open and close are based on your broker, so yes you can find a different broker with different closing times. I personally prefer one as close to the NY close as possible as I think it is logical. But in the end if you understand location and all that is most important it what make the most difference. I don't agree with having one too much later then a few hours after the NY close though as then you start including asia/Aus into that bar and that can very much skew the closing.
This is my first post here. Can somebody advise which is the best broker with regards to data feed for price action trading. I have my account with FXDD which is GMT+3 and I am also using Demo for IBFX which is GMT+0. I was checking recent 4 hour close on both platform.
FXDD 4 hour candle has another 40 minutes to close and it is looking a perfect pinbar as of now.
Whereas IBFX 4 hour candle closed about 20 minutes ago and it is sort of pinbar but not perfect.
I am confused as to which platform I should use. Would appreciate expert...
Hey Alifari,
THis sort of goes into my previous post above yours. It really is up to you. Some of us watch a couple of feeds, just to get a different viewpoint and aggregation of the bars. I know some people who watch 4 feeds. I think in the end things will even out for the most part, and it is perfectly fine to just watch your one broker you are comfortable with. I personally use fxpro as my main feed, and IBFX has my secondary
Ibfx feed left a nice day pin I like that it closed below 7900. The weekly pin 2 weeks ago high wasnt breached and last weeks bar was to me a tug-a war bar undecided so this could be a chance to get short. Some decent 4hr resistance at the 61 fib level. Got back from Vegas a bit ago how about those Lakers they helped pay the way
Hey 4fun
Just be careful here, this is not a pinbar. This is simply a bearish bar. We need the open and close to be within the prior bar as well as the low.
I've been a lurker for the past two weeks, stumbling across this thread by accident, been trading FX about a year- blown one account already, and feel that if anywhere, it will be here that I finally turn the corner. I wanted to take the thread's birthday as an opportunity to say hello and wish everyone here another fantastic four years.
The spirit of generosity and kindness of people on the thread, and the wealth of knowledge here is amazing. Well done all!
Carl
Welcome Carl
It is oh so fitting to see some new faces right on the 4 year mark. It is what James started this all for.
Congrats big guy! I can't beat Marks cake but I was up baking all night for you
Mike I have close of the PB at 1.38859 and high of the previous bar is at 1.38850 so difference is less then 1 pip. But it is PB by proxy isn't it?
Have to be careful, like Matt said above, it all together is an iffy situation. Remember the pin alone is not enough, especially on the hourly. IMO you need to be THAT picky, and trying to use proxy on the 1hr is a dangerous route.
Yes it was not the best setup, normally I don't take H1 trades but I had 2 loses on EURCAD and GBPUSD, so I took it.
Again been here too Alter, this is the worst thing ever to do. Revenge trading is absolute account killer. And I can guarantee you everyone reading this thread that has been around awhile has done it. You have to resist at all costs, losing a few trades, and then dropping timeframes just looking for something to trade. It usually goes like:
"#*@* 2 losses in a row, wtf!"
"let me check out the hourly"
"oh there is a decent looking pin, i'm getting in with a bit more to get back my losses"
"#*#*#"
This is NOT to mock you. Please understand I have done it. Everyone has. But in the end this will be the account killer, and I don't want to see you go that path. Remember it is important to graduate to these lower timeframes, as bars like the previous will eat you up.
Hope you don't take this the wrong way as I mean well
U are right, sometimes I do that.
So how many % of the account do you recommend to lose before stop trading? Anyway H1 has one big advantage over daily or weekly, you will find out much faster if something works or it does not.
Hey Alter
Yes you certainly will find out if something works out faster in terms of a trade, but trading on the daily and hourly are two very different beasts. This is why James says work your way down, it isn't to prevent you all from getting there, it is to get you all there the right way.
Well firstly I hope you are on demo. But as per James:
IF YOU EVER SUFFER THE LOSS OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT OF YOUR ACCOUNT, YOU STOP TRADING. PERIOD-PARAGRAPH. YOU GO BACK TO DEMO AND FIGURE OUT WHAT WENT WRONG. WHILE DOING THIS, YOU REFUND YOUR ACCOUNT BACK TO ITS ORIGINAL AMOUNT. YOU DO NOT GO BACK TO LIVE TRADING AGAIN UNTIL YOUR DEMO HAS SHOWN YOU WHAT WENT WRONG AND YOUR ACCOUNT IS BACK TO FULL STRENGTH BY WHATEVER MEANS. IF IT TAKES ONE MONTH OR SIX MONTHS, IT DOES NOT MATTER. YOU MUST FOLLOW THIS APPROACH IF YOU DON'T WANT BLOWN ACCOUNT AFTER BLOWN ACCOUNT.
Obviously if you are in the demo phase, then you need to review and figure out what is going wrong.
Don't feel sad or shy about asking these questions. Let me say that you would not believe how many are reading this right now shaking their head saying that is me. And then they are getting the same realizations b/c YOU are willing to ask the questions. Believe me if you saw my inbox you would know you are NOT alone
plus50,
on H1, that is not a DBHLC. the second bar should be closing lower than the low of the first bar. more like a beob, only with similar highs.
also, kindly post smaller charts next time (since your charts are already zoomed in). thanks
Careful here SC, this is not a DBHLC like you said, but also not a BEOB. A beob has to have a lower low. This is simply a BEB type bar, nothing special
Also his chart size are fine to me
Some new posters here today, just a reminder, to read and re-read James16 first post about timeframes. It is very important! James16 knows what he is talking about And of course welcome!
Strictly daily charts for me!!! no matter how tempting some of these 4H pins etc look....
Might consider going down a timeframe at Christmas if I have proved myself but I have to ask the question.... are people making a lot of extra pips a month trading on smaller timeframes? surely if your getting a good return on dailys and its safer then just stick to that no?
Well we shall see but like I say daily charts only for the time being...
Fat Tom
Awesome Tom, most just can not shake that need to trade, and won't listen. It takes a few hard smacks on the ass before they realize James knows what he is talking about and then they do it the easier way.
You might never ever want to move to the lower timeframes. Many don't. Nothing wrong with that! The process is that after you can learn to trade the higher timeframes with confidence and consistency. You can then move down to say the 4hr/1hr if that is your desire for more opportunities and put it through the same process that got you to be profitable on the higher timeframes.
Need some opinion from the seniors about failed pin bar.
Why this pin bar should not be taken? Its very nice PB, the spot is okey...!?
Or is just the one, when we can say ''this things happen''.
Thanks,
Hey Gasgas
This is not a failed pin, b/c it was never Validated. For a pin to be validated the high most be broken. For me personally if the next bar doesn't break the high and validate I will cancel my order. Many will leave their orders but once that low is broken before the high, then the pin is not considered valid. So these are things that keep us out of a bad trade. If you are buying on say a retrace, this is part of the negatives and what you have to deal with(buying into a pin that has not yet been validated).
Thanks Marcel & Mike! much appreciated I'm on the right track...
Think it was mentioned earlier but this looks (in my humble opinion) like a viable trade
anyone else considering a long entry just above the pin on this one?
thanks all!!!
Fat Tom
Just a small note about this. Even though still a lot of time left here. This is not the traditional place we look for Bullish pins. Note that this pin is at a swing high, and we would want it at a swing low. IMO this is what I would consider a breakout pin, as you are trading it as part of a breakout pullback type play. So the traditional place that we want to look for bullish pins are swing lows points. Again when you play them at swing high points like this, you have to watch b/c you are trading right into a previous "high" and could bounce your bar back very close by. So I prefer to look at these as breakouts when they line up like this.
hi everyone,
because of this thread and the people here i am starting to become consistently profitable with my trading even though its on demo i am proving to myself i can do it. I am not ready for a live acct and need at least a year or two more of experience.
I currently have no money for trading and am going to college next year and most of my income will probably go towards tuition costs, so saving is not possible. The only way i think is to register an LLC in my name (as Jim said a few posts back) and apply for a business loan and use it...
This is what scares me the most about trading and spreadsheets. The what could be seems great always. I am not going to give financial advice, but you are very young and your focus should not be on borrowing money, just learn to trade right as you are doing. Put a few bucks away while you can. Believe me I can very much relate to everything you posted. My school was 40k a year, and I have a lot of loans to pay back still. Having a huge account is not possible for me at the current point in my life. I also have my own LLC for outside trading so I know what all that entails. My goals are to build my account and be consistent and as that grows so do I. Having bankruptcy as your stop loss is not something you should have to have on your plate. Better to learn to do things right while you put away and grow some money on your own. Going from demo to borrowing 40k to trade is crazy if you ask me. I am certainly not giving advice either way this is not what I do. But what I say is forget about thinking that ahead. Learn to trade demo, throw a few hundred backs into a live when you get past the requirements by James. See where you are after school and what not. Don't put that extra pressure on you. Just learn to trade for now.
I'm in the AUDUSD weekly which is a similar setup. And I would take it every time it showed up. It sucks to be in heavy drawdown. If I had a style that involved small RR TPs then I would probably have killed it before now, but my current style is more like Mike's. Pickier entries more room to breathe. My stop is at the end of the bar because that is a significant area of resistance and because I believe that this setup means price will give me profit before it breaches that level of resistance.
There are two lessons I see if this trade ends in...
WHile I agree with everything here, I just must put this chart back up so people understand WHY gbp/usd stalled where it did. If you are a move stops quick trader, take profit etc the way James shows well gbp/usd gave it to the area we expected a possible stall. It is up to the trader style if they believe holding through that area is beneficial(more importantly in the long run see Aarons post above).
I?m watching this thread now for 2 months reading and learned so much from jim and the other guys.
The reason why i didn?t post earlier is my "not so good" (bad) english.
Now i?ve tryed to workout what i learned on...
Hey Martin
Welcome to the thread. Your English is great and don't be shy to post, no one will judge you I promise.
Your chart is great, not much wrong with it. Your second question, really doesn't need to have an answer. Sometimes there is no good trade. We could mark up every chart to try to find ways we could have got into every part of every move, but the more important thing is to understand where the best locations for these bars are and then react accordingly in real time.
As for where to put your s/l and entry on a beob and BUOB. The traditional way to trade them is a break of the high of a BUOB, and then your stop loss underneath the bar. This is because technically speaking a BUOB is not valid until that bar high breaks, and is also not invalidated(or over), until the low is taken out. Now some will say your stops will be huge, but again make sure you understand the simple MM concept of position sizing. There are of course other ways to play them, on the retrace and what not, but I will let you decide which is most comfortable for you with still understanding the advanatages and disadvantages of all methods.
If you pay attention to the previous resistance turned support, you would expect that there might not be that much of the room for this PIN trade to develop. I guess this is one of those take profit quick case.
On the other hand, last week's bar formed an I4B pattern. Let's see which way it will go and make sure to watch for the next resistance or support.
Ken
Hi all,
Can someone here explain why my MACD looks bearish whilst Kens is more bullish - I'm confused
I was referring to the "price action" as textbook stuff. Was going through my daily charts when I saw the beautiful price action...thought I would share it...I should have specified it clearly...
don't worry ghous. Those of us doing this for awhile, realize their are many ways to skin a cat. One trade is meaningless in the larger scheme of a trading method. This trade is not at all dissimilar to the eur/gbp James posted a few posts back. Like James said, A+? no, but did it still do what was expected, yep!
We all appreciate your thoughts and analysis and they are very good
There are so many ways to play basic price action. Ghous is right to point out that price reversed exactly where expected, and if you took the daily GBPCHF trade you can't have been surprised that it did that.
Clock is also right that if you took that trade near a swing high looking for that small RR then it's an awful lot to risk for a small RR. But there are many ways to look at this.
You could be a "stop to break even quick" kind of trader. And so as the trader broke hard you moved your stop to BE looking for a longer move. You got stopped...
(And btw, my screenname had people sending me flirty messages when I first started on here. Before they realised I was a man. It's actually an acronym of my first name and my business partner's first name.)
Aaron
Yes it is, I just use a voice changer for the webinars/videos
But in all seriousness, many of our female members I speak with through PMs and emails only and they turn out to be the best, and most level headed for trading, then us egotistical males that have to battle ourselves. Glad to see more female posters here too
hi guys,
this is my first post even I am in a sideline for quite sometimes reading your posts and trying to applied to my trading. I am very new in forex. I would like express my million thnks to all of you especially the founder dearest dr james for such making all the senses for me to study charts.lol
Another pb in making on Cad/Jpy on 4h?
The nose is very small
At good PPZ
Bullish Divergence.
Any comments?
Hey FF
Be careful here, with such a small nose, this is like trying to catch a falling knife with one finger. The clear pins will have a large nose and be much more powerful in the long run
Hi,
I've just recently joined the group and have spend the last week or so reading the thread from the start to about p150. I think I've got the idea, and have entered my first PB based trade. 2 lots long. Where do I get out? Currently up 100pips. Daily chart has the PB bouncing off the bottom of a upward channel.
Thanks, Jason
I hope the attachment worked.
Awesome Jason! You freaking nailed it. A few things though, firstly their are some key tip offs in your language. When someone says I am 2 lots long, it makes me realize they are not using proper Money Mgmt. Please make sure you read up about position sizing(PM if you need the links). Also this is on demo right? Want to get you off on the right foot, even though your chart is near perfect to me
hi guys:
I have been watching E/U and U/Chf for a few hours today on Day Timeframe.
it seems never moving at all for +-0.01,
so on Day-tf it seems nothing ever moving at all and stalled (1.40, 1.07)
how do you trade this kind of higher tf chart?
is it place an order and come back to see after 1 day? thanks...
Hey Bill
Not sure I understand your question? Are you saying sine price has been very choppy and consolidating how do we trade this on the daily chart? If that is what you are asking basically we wait. This is why it is easier IMO to watch as many pairs as you can and just wait for the trades that stand out instead of trying to finesse up one pair that might not be moving. I usually see this and look for potential breakouts when a pair is in consolidation mode.
Easy Guys, I don't know why sometimes others need to judge anyone. We are all here for the same motivations. Lets keep this civil and about learning. Everyone is welcome to do what works for them, that is the beauty of life and the markets
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matiasfx
Hey Ghous, yes i mean those huge bearish bars showing the selling preassure. Thats a falling knife
But, let see....
Cheers
Yes the big bearish bars, always "trump" smaller reversal bars for me. That doesn't mean you can't play them but from my experience you have to take into consideration this "pressure". That means we have to be aware of the closer trouble areas, that if the wind is at our back. 1.75 is a strong area, but this could just be a pause. I marked up a chart a bit.
Ah I see, I guess it's a term used in the pf cuz I haven't heard it here...
So what do we call strong bull pressure, a rising rocket or what?
Hehe, just another way to view momentum for me. When I see strong moves, I don't like to try to play a reversal on small momentum the other way. I like to see some equal weight to a bar(which can mostly be seen in size, and of course location). But the smaller bars, just have to be more conservative, get those stops up, or out with smaller profit(or aware of those closer trouble areas).
Hi Mike
I presume you are talking about the GBP/CHF.
Is it not on an uptrend in H4?
Hey Novice
Yes you are correct, we have been in a recent uptrend. But when I am trading a timeframe like the H1/H4. I consider this intraday and am very much concerned with the "recent" action. If you look prior to this smaller pin we see very strong bearish bars after strong bullish bars. This doesn't necessarily bias me against going long off this area, but I like to see something that is comprable to the "bigger" recent bars. I am not sure if this makes sense, in my head it does lol. Overall I see this pair has topped out for now, and if 1.75 doesn't hold then we are starting to turn over even more. I don't really get to bias, I more or less look at what the chart tells me at this time. So again, this pin might work out just fine, but IMO it is not one to get carried away with. We must be prepared at these first areas to take some sort of action(b/c of the large h4 bars).
enjoy your posts. any thoughts on this pin on eur/gbp 4H.
Pros:
in direction of trend
bounce off PPZ and round number 0.8600
Cons:
larger bullish 4H bar earlier today
euro has been strong over last 24/36 hours.
Thanks!
Hey Dropped Onion(how you came to that name I would love to know LOL)
I am a bit picky with the types of bars I take on the lower timeframes, this is part of my need for using larger round numbers. For example this is a pin with the trend, but still not one I would take. I don't like how the high of the last pin a week back wasn't tested. I usually like to see those areas tested and rejected and run on. If you notice the first pin, was a nice large nose that stuck out far past the previous bar highs. This one has the previous bars high sitting high up on the bar, which I don't love(compared to that first one is much more clean). Also there was a bullish pin yesterday at a swing low(tested a new low), in space, with great divergence. This is the better confluence trade.
Again, just b/c I wouldn't personally take it doesn't make it not tradeable(part of developing what works for you and doesn't). But we can still with a high probability determine likely areas that price may bounce, or at least trouble areas. Here is a chart
Two and half hours before bar close, but G/J forming a very nice pin bar on daily. Swing low, perfect bounce from 154 level, and past 155 level, but a lot traffic previus days. Mabey a B trade?
Any comments welcome.
TIA
Hey Tia
Analysis like this really makes me smile, b/c you are identifying all the important pieces, of traffic, location, and possible trouble areas. Then it is up to you to decide if the trade is worth it. I would also just point out since it is in a lot of traffic, that first low would be the first real trouble area(pink line), before the area marked above on your chart(if it can get past that).
Mabey I should stop writing TIA at the end, Aaron might think I'm calling for him everytime.
One thing still bothers me, I see a Head&Shoulders pattern, which indicates down move. The neck was tested but price rejected big time from the neck.
What do you think about that Mike?
Regards,
whoops my bad LOL! I thought that was your name.
Well part of what makes this pattern not an A trade was as you said the lack of space/traffic. This very well means we could move higher before the real move lower occurs. This is part of letting the chart do the work. So on a trade like this, that was why my focus was to shift from the actual bar to the location and trouble areas above. IMO this is not a pin you buy and hold and just let the trade play out. Of course someone might think it is, but With the trouble areas coming up, that would be quite loose in my opinion. Also you can always find reasons to trade and not to trade. The key is to find the reasons in a consistent way for both trading and passing on trades. This is what keeps me in check most of the time(hey we all get a reality check every once and awhile :P )
Mike
Last edited by mbqb11, Jun 23, 2009 7:50pm
Reason: horrible spelling lol
Hi Mike. Making a quesadilla i dropped an onion. Right after, i discovered FF and had to sign up with a username and went with dropped onion. wish there was more to it
Good analysis on the eur/gbp 4H pin. informative to read your thought process on potential trade set up! so far pin has broken to the downside.
I think it would be safe to say that you spend way more time looking at reasons (and you seem to find them) not to take a trade, as opposed to jumping into a lot of trades as price action develops.
I seriously LOLed at that. That is classic.
This kind of flows from my post above this. I find reasons that keep me consistent. I tend to look and do the same general things over time. Now every trade is still unique, but the way I trade tends to be the same. So this is why you can post a trade, and 10 traders will do 10 different things. Neither is really wrong, to me it is important to be as consistent as possible. Be it you are a high win rate trader, low RR - low win rate high RR - something in b/w, etc etc. My entries tend to be off similar areas and I have certain criteria that others call picky, but for me it helps me to open charts and not find reasons to trade all the time(been there, not fun). One example for you are Outside bars. Technically speaking a BUOB for ex. doesn't have to close ABOVE the previous bar. But I almost always wait for the ones that do. From my experience these are stronger, more reliable, and in conjuction with how I trade they work the best for me. These are the types of "rules" that sort of govern what I do that give me at least a framework to work within.
Probably went off on a huge tangent there, like usual
hi Mike, great posts as usual. these recent posts have made me question my decision on the the au/yen pinbar,lol.
when trying to trade with the trend we have to buy/sell the retrace yes? i find there is more often than not issues with space on these types of trades? do find this? and how do you deal with it?
thanx
jon
Hey Jon
Again so hard to answer as a generalization for me. I just really trade the charts. A trade like aud/jpy isn't necessarily a bad trade, but I would have a lot of trouble buying and just holding it. There is significant resistance coming over head around 77. IMO it makes the most sense to just outright take profit prior to it then try to hold through that. Or some form of moving stops. Now if it created more space, and was with the trend then I would again probably be more apt to hold and trail my stops in some form.
I hope that makes sense, and again this is just how I am comfortable
As I'm still a day trader, quick profit, quick BE is a way I play at the moment. In long term I guess thats not the best way, but trying to learn to be picky about trades what is needed to become position holder IMO.
Tnx
Regards,
The best way is what works and is comfortable for you
Thanks for the reply. Here's how I worked out to use 2 lots.
My S/L for the trade was 50pips using PA from the 1hr chart to get an entry. I didn't use the full pin S/L as the PA at the time was really heading up strongly, so I thought if it heads back to below the end of the bar then something is wrong with my analysis.
It's a demo account with 10k lots. I opened the account with $5000 (this was the first trade). 2% of that is $100 and this is equal to 100pips or 2 lots of 50. Does this sound about right?
Also, I wanted to use...
Ah ok Jason, glad to hear this. That is correct. Often times you will hear new traders pull out "lots" out of no where, using the phrase "I took this trade 2 lots". When that really doesn't mean much to anyone without knowing this info that you gave.
You sound like you are off to a great start and look forward to seeing your progress!
It simply means that the bar after our price bar takes out the high/low. For example todays daily gbp/jpy pin bar. The next day bar has broken the high validating the bar. I was speaking of how I cancel my order most of the time if the next bar does not trigger my entry order. It is sort of my take on momentum
Hello to everyone,
I have a question to see if any of you could answer me....
I've been reading a lot the forum and I know that many of you, enter in PB's on the retracement of the third bar, even when the PB is not confirmated until its low/high is hitted...
My big doubt is, what technique do you use in this kind of entries?...
Do you enter right when price touch a particular Fibo level or wait until it shows any "reversal" aspect, or what do you usually do?
Thanks in advance
Hey Jplo
You can use fibs for sure. Another method is to use the left eye(see chart). Some will throw up a fib, and see if it lines up with the left eye also. It can be extremely effective. I don't play retraces, but IMO from just observation the "left eye", is the most effective when it is clear like the chart below.
I have doubts about that, but I tried what you mention (left eye, and plus if it coincides at a Fibo level)
I wondered if anybody searched for a trendline broken, 123 formations or simply PA applyed on the very small TF's to spot that reversal on price)
yes you can use the lower timeframes too. I think some tend to use a combo of it. I was just never getting in before the confirmation. Once and awhile it will be right on one of my intraday levels, and then it does line up what would be a trade either way and lets me ride it. A bit more rare, but does happen with lower timeframe PA.
Anyone here loook at the netdania free charts. I've noticed that often the pin bars that people on here post do not seem to show up on there. For example that 4hr pinbar is not there.
Does the timezone setting have an impact on how pins show up on charts? When i change the settings on the netdania charts it seems to make no difference.
hey BFD
Yes you are correct timezones will effect the aggregation of bars across brokers. Once you go above the 1hr timeframe this is going to depend on where you broker is. This is why we always speak about location being everything. Think of the price bars as the triggers. Don't worry though, a good price bar no matter the broker at a good area will do just fine
I cancel my pending after it didn't trigger the next bars. But i always like to see it working out
Canceling the order was the wrong decition after looking at what happend?? Nope, because i know in the long run, that more often than not, that will help me avoiding setups lacking on momentum.......
Next!!!
Matty
PS: Look how the 1.8 round number strongly rejected price so far. (Thanks Mikey for teaching me the importance of round numbers )
THis was some crazy stuff! Shouldn't have closed out my long pin early !
just wanted to register my presence on this wonderful thread and to thank all the pros for making newbies like me feel welcome. i have been burning the midnight candle to ensure that i go through this enormous thread and will start posting my amateur charts soon....
once again, many thanks to james16 and co for this thread.
cheers!
kenny
Welcome Kenny
It is a very big thread compared to when some of us started! Good luck and ask questions along the way
dow and E/U drops by ~ 50pips over the past hour...
feel like some panic leaked news???
Hey Billye
You will drive yourself nuts both mentally and trading wise if you try to figure out why the market moves. Most of us stick to just reading the chart. It takes so much of the guess work out and trying to overthink the real simplicity of the markets. As James says, he ignores the news like the plague. I am in 110% agreement as I usually am with the big guy
thanks mike... what puzzles me is no news in past hour,
but it happened that in 4 markets, E/U, U/Chf, stocks (and oil?) there are correlated big moves... which look werid.
and price action seems to be a sudden response instead of a planned.
how sure how to trade this moves... or exit and wait?
Hey B
There doesn't have to be "news" for the markets to move. Their are so many participants that are constantly buying and selling for their own motivations. Our job as technicians is to watch for the footprints they leave and for areas where traders are likely to be watching. We then wait for confirmation via Price action and enter. If you notice the regulars here all have trade/game plans about how they best see fit to enter the market. For me it comes for waiting for key locations and then simply waiting for Price action there. Take a step back, go through the thread, and keep things real simple, it will really take that stress out of it as it has for so many of us
I am reading this thread from beginning now, very slow am still on page 17.
Back on trades: have been watching the EG pair.
Location: Bounce on 61.8 fib, flip zone.
Room: the resistence will be around 0.8570-0.8600.
PA: Isn't it a good inside bar.
Am I missing something of taking into consideration?
Any suggestion, advice would be appreciated.
Thanks in advance
rh
Hey RH
Welcome, page 17 is still very early on take it slow as you are, but you will learn much more in the pages to come. Inside bars are IMO the trickiest of all the techniques you could aquire here. One main problem is trading IBs on a timeframe like the 4hr. Sine there is still a lot of dead time due to the timeframe, IBs will pop up left and right having you possibly in and out of the market enough to drive someone crazy(or account down). So your analysis isn't necessarily wrong. As white said also, the accepted way to play IBs is to wait for a break, as this is showing the consolidation(which is what an inside bar represents), being broken for a potential "break out" of that bar.
Again enjoy and take things slow it is the best thing to do
I'll like to ask you guys opinion on rating such trade:
We all know reentry can be a little risky. So here's the trade. The GBPJPY Daily PB, I took it and breakeven. It is common for price to retest a breakout area right? That's why Jarroo method of moving SL on each previous bar high/low makes sense...
Now, in 4H, we got a PB (not the best shape) but it bounced off the daily PB breakout lvl.
How will you rate such reentry? I'm just curious to know (:
Hey LSs
Technically speaking that bar is only a neutral bar. This is when the open and close are in the middle of the bar, and can be seen when we have tails of equal lengths from both ends. This is an indecision type candle. There will be much "cleaner" trades then this around the corner. Patience
I guess I still haven't got the mentality to hold my trade longer. Perhaps because I'm playing with 1 lot and tend to move SL to breakeven after +30 or taking quick profit at the first TP area.
Because I once set a mindset that I'll TP as soon as possible with 1 lot, until i grew it big enough to play more lots, perhaps I'll take some out of the first TP area, and let the remainding to run. Definitely need to look further into price behaviour of retesting.
Don't worry LSs, if something is working it is ok to stick with it. We just have to be flexible to each trade situation. For example I took the aud/jpy pinbar instead of the gbp/jpy. But like the gbp/jpy we were in a decent amount of traffic, which for me means, I am not going to get fancy. I look to that first area either as stop to b/e or full take profit. In this case the upcoming trouble area was close enough that a re-test as you showed was too probable that I didn't want to move stop to b/e and thought better to outright take profit. Price reached my take profit, has sine retested(would have stopped me out), and now continuing on.
So we have to decide as traders what is the best for us in each situation. It seems tricky at first, but it becomes repetitive for the most part. The idea is to find what fits you as a trader. Is it wrong to hold a trade when others might take quick profit. Not neccesarily over the long run, as long as all traders recognize the same basic components and then test what works for them best.
I'm sorry, I do not understand how fib would be drawn.
Probably because I would have drawn as Lss
Sorry for my English ...
Thanks so much for this fantastic thread's learning
Nadine
Hey Nadine
when drawing a fib we want the numbers to start from low to high(23.6 on top) when looking to go long on a retracement like lls chart. So if you are looki ng to go short then the lower fibs would be on the bottom. The deeper the retrace the higher percentage price has moved that is why the numbers run the way they do
when drawing a fib we want the numbers to start from low to high(23.6 on top) when looking to go long on a retracement like lls chart. So if you are looki ng to go short then the lower fibs would be on the bottom. The deeper the retrace the higher percentage price has moved that is why the numbers run the way they do
also your english is great
mike
Here is an example where we would be searching for shorts. So we are drawing the fib from high to low, showing the lowest numbers on the bottom and increasing as they move up. So as price rises(or retraces) into the fib numbers it has retraced a larger amount of the measured move(where the fib was drawn from Swing high to the swing low). So price has already moved past the 23.6, and is approaching the 38.2. So the reason the numbers go from low to high, is b/c they represent the percentage the move has retraced of the larger down move. When we hit 38.2 this means price has retraced 38.2% of that big move down.
Hope that helps a bit, and for a long scenario, it would just be the exact opposite
That PB is not a MBQB11 style bar at all (that I am aware of anyway). He certainly is capable, but it does not fit in his trading plan, so it is not something he looks for.
Bingo and GREAT post mike.
Once you figure out what your style is, you just look for the same types of things over and over. So it becomes difficult when a chart is posted and the question is. Is this a good potential trade? The answer can be yes/no and then it depends on your style. Of course with that said, I can look at any chart, any decent bar and have a pretty good idea where it will likely go. The difference b/w any chart, and the the charts I look for is seeing the same types of things over and over and just reacting better to them. When I start to get a little bit outside my comfort zone, it is when it puts me back on my heals and that is what gets my uncomfortable and inconsistent. You will notice the traders who have been at this the longest, do the same general types of things. SP really nailed it. I hope those posts make people realize that this is not a cut and dry thing. That time and experience is crucial to the learning practice and you WILL get better over time if you put into practice the core concepts.
Thanks SP I think your post will flick on some light bulbs. 90 watt
i cant remember if we have a fib video up on the guest side mike.
i forget sometimes just how "new" that "new" can actually be sometimes.
mike or i will do a fib video soon and put it up in the guest area.
if you beat me to it mike do a section on confluence with the fibs and other areas also along with just the basics....
I have one up on our main side, maybe I will just redo a new one though for the guest, and try to keep it more simple and too the point then that one. Will do it this weekend
On a side note is everyone else hearing Michael Jackson is dead. Unbelievable and sad if true.
Yes, I think a fib video would be a great idea and also a video on the use of divergence would be helpful. I see them both used a lot by experienced traders but, in the case of fibs, I find them to be very subjective. I have not got into using either of these cosistantly in my trading yet and may decide not to but some videos would help me decide if I want to use them or not.
i will quit after this but im passionate about stopping this. i said before i dont want to offend anyone but if it does it does.
I highly doubt you offend anyone who knows you Jim. Your passion is inspiring in so many ways to me. On such a different level for me now. At first it was for trading, now it is so much of your journey that I am passionate to learn from.
I always like the weekend, b/c it usually brings the thread into a different gear for at least a day or so.
Still looking forward to your "spiritual journey" section as it grows.
Thanks for sharing your insight with us beyond trading too
Mike
Yes, please guys i would kindly suggest to take this to PM's becuase it has the potential to take this thread to a place we dont want and we always tried to avoid.
Just my opinion
Have a good weekend all.
Matty
Edit: I mean 9/11 its a controversial, complicate and really emotional subject in order to talk about it in a thread like this in my opinion.
You are very correct Matty and I would prefer it not be as well.
Since it's the weekend a little off topic chit chat isn't a bad idea. But I agree with Mike and the others here...let's not hit on personal subjects. Cause of 9/11 is one of them...
Comon, that cause has led to many huge shifts in our politics and freedoms. If we can't discuss it then they have won.
I just don't think this thread is the place for it. No one is telling you not to discuss it. There is a members lounge here. Open a thread link it. Go for it.
SomTam,
as per james16 method, try this (below) to improve your strategy:
your rule 2should be rule 1, & your rule 1should be rule2.
& then your revised strategy should look like this: rule 1 locate resistance & support levels, PPZs (on Daily, weekly, monthly charts) rule 2 locate PA (Price Action) setups located on areas in rule 1 -- such as pinbar, BEOB, DBLHC, etc rule 3 be aware of critical...
Yes that is my favorite type pin. The one that creates enough space look wise and is with a trend. Now the question of what is enough space is impossible to answer. The way I look at it is, when you see the pin, the amount of space will help determine the best style to manage. The more space, the more room one can give to breathe. Every situation is going to look a bit different, there is no real easy way to say X amount of space is necessary. To me it is all a look thing. If there is not a lot of space, that means s/r is close by and we must get our stops to b/e quicker then if their is more space created, giving a trade an easier ride(usually), to move. These pins are STILL at swing points. They are swing points because they are moving away from price creating a new swing point. A swing high or low does not have to be the very top or the very bottom.
Here is just a quick example of a chart I had open. Notice the pin(red arrow). This is the scenario of a retracement pin. We have a large move that occurred(bullish up move), then a retrace back to .8000 mark, which is putting in a new swing low point if price bounces there. The blue box is our space area, that it could potentially move through easier then if that was all clustered with price. Now we still should look for other problem areas. But I wanted to show the Swing low swing high concept for you.
But you can see the components here. Swing low, a pinbar, a PPZ, a round number. Then you decide the best way to attack trade mgmt. The less space, the more I move my stops to b/e fast.
Hope that helps
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by kean
Hi Mike,
Sorry to be persistant but I am genuinely a bit stuck on this at the moment. I am trying to get some structure to the way that I trade. I feel that I have the self discipline to stick to the criterea that I lay down but, at the moment, I need some help in judging different pinbar scenarios and how to trade them, I hope you don't mind...
With reference again to your #3914 post, I am very much wanting to understand the third pinbar scenario. With regards to location, I was just at the point of thinking that there were two pinbar types...
hey guys for a bar to be considered a BEOB I was under the impression the high and the low only need to be outside of the previous bar. is this true or does the close need to be below the previous bar as well? Is a BEOB that has a close under the previous bar regarded as a better BEOB then one that has its close somewhere in the middle of the previous bar? thanks in advance
Yes you are correct, the high and low have to be outside the previous bar, and we are looking for a close near the lower portion of the bar. It does NOT have to be below the previous bars low. I personally prefer them that way , and I do regard it as a stronger sign personally.
Thanks Mike, this has made identification a lot clearer. Just on the trade management, as there is a degree of space, where would you place your initial stop loss on this trade, would it be different from a full bar stop used on a major swing high/low after a large move (ie. right at the top/bottom)?
Kean
Hey Kean
I always place my stop loss at the other end of the bar no matter the trade for me
I would like to see the same bar formations that most of you show. in this thread... that is why I am not asking this question in the Broker Section. I am using ODL but is FXPRo the one used by most? What is the gmt for fxpro? Any others?
Thanks
James uses IBFX, so a lot of people use that. I would say IBFX and fxpro are most popular followed by alpari fxdd etc
Welcome back to the calm world of larger timeframes and less stress
I don't really have an official plan beyond watching what price does around the 1.4 PPZ. To me this is the clear battle line and I will watch how price reacts around this area. Overall this pair (on the h4) has been very very choppy, so when it comes time for trade mgmt(if a good trade presents), well for me personally it would be a very quick trade.
Again I have my own way of attacking the lower timeframes, but as long as your plan is well thought out with some good confluence and waiting for some strong PA, it is all good to me
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by ozziedave
Hi All..
Long time reader of James 16. I must admit that I have read this thread since the beginning and actually was one of the original members of the PF for the first few months. Like so many I have wondered from time frame to time frame and system to system only to discover that S & R and PA on longer time frames is the best way to trade. Starting in July I will be trading using 4hr and daily charts, what a massive change in mind set from the fast action of the 2M and 5M charts..lol....
ooooohhhhhhh Mikey.
I nearly made it in to NYC on my way up the coast.
My wife was saying call that cheeky bugger. Wait till the Dolphins play those bastards this year......
Guys, what do you think about this pinbar? Its high is at some resistance and my target would be around 80 pips up... which means 1:1 RR ratio... suggestions?
Hey Slurp
I would be careful with this one personally slurpee. It has a very poor close IMO. While it is technically a pin, the close is much lower then the open, giving the bar more of a bearish look to me then a pinbar type look. That and the 6500 mark with many bar highs right above it would have me very weary.
We prefer to treat it more like a serious business actually
Easy ghous lol, you can still treat it as a serious business and have alerts sent and then look at the chart to determine if it is worth trading. Some people don't have the ability to access the charts as much.
My answer would be to check out some of the Price Action alert indicators, I have attached an example scott posted. Now I am sure the indicator is the tough part to making, getting an alert attached to it would probably be the easiest part. I have no idea how to do that but wanted to give you a starting place. I also have not tried the indicator either way. Scott is a good guy though give him a shout.
Mike do you ever have problems going from the 4hr to the daily? I had a hard time with mixing the 4hr and daily on different trades, I think it's more of a time thing due to the daily moving slower and the 4hr doing 6x the moving the daily does. I think 4hr is my thing for now and I will skip the dailys.
I still am not a fan of being in a trade for 5+ days even if it's up 10%, prob just a phych thing.
Not really Ryan. Simply b/c I take very few daily/weekly trades a month. So it doesn't really bother me much. I know most days I am going to open a daily chart and close it right back down.
The question I ask myself is, "Why such a long lower tail?" Why couldn't price stay near those day lows? Well... it bounced off 1.62. If you strike a line right at 1.62, you may find it holds as a very good PPZ... Therefore, the price actually closed Above the PPZ, thus invalidating the setup for me, despite the nice touch of the downward trendline.
Good post Headless.
Just my 2.
Excellent Post Josh. Exactly how I Look at iffy bars. Plus if you have gone through the charts and had to pick a better xxx/cad bar,. the USD/CAD has a much better overall shape.
Thanks To All Who Put Their Time And Effort To Help Traders In This Threat (Or Any Other ) It's Really A Great Stuff ...
I've Just Reading The Hole Threat ... Just Important Parts.
I Have A Question, Id This A Good Entry ? PB Formed, Left Eye Hit, And If There Was A Sell Stop Order, It Will Be Trigered ...
Regards,
Basber
Hey Basber,
Welcome Bud. Yes technically speak that bar is a pinbar, but the location and size of the bar is very poor. If you look to the left of that bar it has traffic everywhere. Meaning price is going to have a hard time to penetrate all that consolidation(traffic = congestion = messy). The size of the bar is also important to me. A big bar indicates a lot of "action". This is a very small bar, which could be nothing more then a small bounce. Finally along side the congestion we are trading right into a PPZ(this happens when a bar is in traffic), of the .8000 mark.
thanks for the helpful post mike. i thought traffic meant alot of previous bar lows or highs.
so my newb question is than, is space the opposite of traffic? in that the candle has room to move before hitting a ppz and stalling or reversing.
please forgive me if this has been asked a million times already im currently working my way through the whole thread + pf. its alot of material
thanks, john
Hey John
Traffic can come in degrees. SO you are correct that space is the opposite of traffic. But you can have small traffic(a few bar highs lows), or heavy traffic ( sideways market tons of bar highs/lows ppz, etc etc).
Funny you should ask someone just posted this exact question today in the beginner forum in the PF. It's funny cause these terms I just came up with to explain to people years ago how I see things. It's how they make sense in my head which can be far off from how I say them. Let me paste up what I put in there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
In the most basic form the less traffic in the short term, means the trade has less of the less important areas(ie a little bar high or low) to get in a trades way, to get to the more major areas(a ppz, roudn number, confluence etc).
So basically the less traffic in the area means less interference. That doesn't mean none, but generally speaking if their is crazy traffic all around a bar it has a worse chance of moving b/c there is less in the way.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
then I wrote in the next post
____________________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Now to further clarify, there are different levels of traffic. A bar can be in traffic and tradeable if it is a good size bar, good level etc. All that means to me PERSONALLY is that I change my trade mgmt plan. I am not going to give the bar as much leeway as a bar in complete space.
Here is the recent example aud/jpy(see chart below). The pink lines are where my eye is drawn for space. There isn't a whole lot for me to want to buy and hold. But notice the pin is still nice and the location is great. So it is still worth trading for me. See how I personally managed this one here
(please see this post for live analysis) [
Now see chart 2(usd/cad weekly), for the extreme the other way. This is extreme space. If there is nothing to get in our way, getting to the major areas(blue ppz), becomes a lot easier. Think of it if you are in your car and you have an open road. You get to your destination faster then when their is traffic in front of you(obstacles).
Also I started using the term space way back in the day and it just caught on like wildfire. It really was just a way for me to word what was going on my head.
Trade the swing extreme Pinbars if you wish, I will wait 'till they are confirmed first then trade the WT bars, it's less risk and easier, no crappy indicators or voodoo explanations, it is as you see it. I'm willing to share this info for free, you will make money on this everyday. See your profits build.
Hey Bob welcome to the thread number 2 :P the civil way we like
Just to clarify here. No one disagrees about lower timeframes. James simply is trying to help every new trader that comes into trading and starts off there to get slaughtered. The daily/weekly help develop the habits to trade the lower timeframes. You can make profit on all timeframes there is no doubt about that, and all different ways.
It's all about taking the proper steps to insure you don't have to lose an arm and a leg to the market while learning. Personally the daily/weekly make up about 25% of my total trades for the month on avg. But when I see new traders trying to trade every pinbar(with or against the trend) on the hourly it shows me that their mentally not ready. Most start at the lower timeframes and just continue to beat themselves up until they quit. It doesn't even give them a chance to learn what it is like to be profitable or close to profitable and hang around past that part of the learning curve. The allure of forex riches and all that other BS that almost every single one of us had coming into it needs to be taken out to think logical and treat it like a business. That is what putting it through the page 1 process James speaks about. For any an all timeframes.
Oh and yes you are quite right, pips mean nothing. That has been debated to death on FF
Just wondering why James16 hasn't taught all you guys lower time frame stuff like this, you don't need to stare at 30 fx pairs, 4 will do, or start with 1, you will still earn. All that large account bollox is demeaning really. You can start a micro account and build up my friends. I will gladly show James16 a better way to trade too, better money management, as I feel he could trade so much better if he let's go of the 'large account' mentality.
I was even thinking of starting some type of live trading arena. Will look into it if enough interest....
sure Bob, go for it. You can open up your own thread and show everyone what you do.
As for better MM, most MM ideas are convoluted to make a trader think they are more effective. %R is simplistic and effective if you have any sound edge in the market place. And to also keep the facts right on this thread, James does teach lower timeframes, again his process is about HOW to get yourself there without having to drive yourself out of this business. James simply speaks about having a large account will change the way you trade. 10cents vs 1000$ a pip is very different and will make you a more disciplined and PICKY trader.
how do you go directly to an individual post like 13579? from the URL
i tried http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13579
but that doesn't work
i also played around with the other variables.. what does the p mean in the URL?
i cant just enter postcount=blah and goto that post unfortunately
hey den
click the small blue arrow box next to the quoted persons name it will take you to the quoted post
I have started on small TFs and saw the light after few years, but it was a psychological and physical nightmare. I then came across J16 thread and Jims approach for newbs like me was a gift from heavens. I learnt how to sit back, relax and trade in a more civil way. It was time of study, learning about my ego, building self-confidence and taking time to develop my own style. Few more years have passed and I’m comfortable with what I’m doing, but I do agree with a statement that it will take you forever to build your...
BINGO! This is 100% it.
Thanks
Mike
ps removed my posts as to not clutter this thread up otherwise I am no better
This thread is about shattering forex BS. It is a challenge to get good at forex. Not everyone who tries even their hardest for years is guaranteed ANYTHING. Period. Can someone balloon a small trading account into riches. Of course anything can happen. Is this likely for the person risking 20% per trade even on a high probability setup NO. What we try to teach here is how to develop the skill to build your own system/method. These are tools, there is no step 1 step 2. This is why you see all sorts of traders that take what they learn here and develop there own methods. James said this all in a video yesterday that had me shaking my head yes for 20 mins. Do I trade the 4hr/1hr YES. Do I trade the daily/weekly YES. Do I advise others to start on the lower timeframes NO. The process is to get you to a point where you can DO whatever you want. You can trade the 5min, the 1min, the 38min chart. Whatever feels comfortable. Some people never move off the longer timeframes. I know of many. Some end up trading the 4hr only, or the 1hr, or both, or everything. No one is telling you otherwise. This thread has gotten so large, I can only imagine someone peeking in and picking up a post here and there and then taking an overview of what is the main goal(s). It is natural for a thread this large.
Where do most traders start? Where did you start? I start. Oh you know the hour, 5min, tick chart. Been there done that. How many actually pull themselves out of that mess without the tools. Well you know the statistics(95%? I would say 98% don't make it). They blow account after account, scratching their head. So instead why not take the time to treat this as a business, put this through the testing of the dailies weeklies. Train yourself to get the discipline and skills and then do the same for the lower charts. Yes I do trade the lower timeframes for more opportunities. I avg 10-15 4hr/1hr trades a months, and only 3-5 daily/weekly a month. Why do I do this? Because I know I can, and b/c I want to build my account faster. No argument there! But what is my goal? To have a large enough account to take only those 3-5 a month and be done with it. The goal is not to TRADE. This is a myth. James said it "I am here to make money". So if you don't want to start on the daily and weekly. No one can stop you. It is your life to lead. But still put it through the proper testing, you don't have to burn a hole in your pocket anymore to learn this business.
Everyone thinks oh if I trade more I will get more experience. Unfortunatley this is really not the case believe it or not. Yeah sure do it for 3 years of blood, sweat, and tears(yes tears). Again like SP said above, it is really hard to teach. Because so much of it just comes from how things are in your head and the way you develop it. But all of us who have been on this thread for awhile can agree on a lot(not all of course) steps James lays out. I know it hurts to hear you can't live off your 10k account. We all came into it thinking boy this is gonna be easy. There are all kinds of variations of risk and return. Just because I risk 1% a trade and make X amount a month/a year doesn't mean the next will. This comes with it. But certain things are ridiculous and don't happen. Anyone telling you they are making things that seem too good to be true. THEY ARE(well 99.999999%). Gives me a little room there.
I know you hate to hear, stop trading the 1hr and start and work your way down. I know. What we share is advice. To be taken or left at the door. That is up to you. But there is a reason why so many people follow this thread. THere is a reason so many people give back to this thread. Don't go through the heartache some of us did. Read that first post 100 times. So decide what you want from this business. I see some people on this forum still doing the same things for years and years now. They are so englufed in this that they have blinded themselves from the reason to actually be doing this. Everything thinks I am different. I can do this, etc. Maybe you can. But for most of us, its just about being smart and taking the right approach. I don't argue there aren't many ways to skin a cat. I am talking about those that follow this thread.
At the end of the day, SP is right. You control your own coin. I wish everyone to reach their goals whatever they are. Just be logical about it.
Happy 4th everyone, will check in on my phone see what I miss. I am not even going to re-read this b/c I am officially in weekend mode.
Just so you know I too did not ban him. Although James said he gets a second shot for this that remember this was number 2. I too welcome new input it was the manner it occured. That is not how people should treat others. One thing is for sure great character doesnt go hand in hand with a "great" trader
While I don't think bob did everything 100% right I think Adam hit some point here. I personally like to get my believes and ideas challenged, and that's what bob did. If they can't keep standing on some new input/critics then it was probably BS.
Like yes bob was right with the timeframes etc. if you want a fast growing account, go trade 1h or smaller. I personally love to have a lot of free time for other things and like the fact that my trading is done in 20-30 mins a day...that's just me. But was he all wrong...I think not.
Banning him...hmm...
again not one person said anything about challenging ideas. He was asked nicely multiple times to open his own thread which he said nah to b/c why? Think about it yall. He could have opened his own and everyone goes about their business. Or stay and insult long time members
Took this 4Hr BUOB, stop at bottom of bar entry at 154.40. Rounde number, nice bar, swing low, and some space.
As bar broke up 30 pips I used the bar break stop method and moved stop up to the breaking bar low. I used this method because this trade is somewhat CT which and could be rejected by many of the bar lows to the left even though I think it has some space and could possiblly get to 155.50-156. Right now the area to watch out for is the 155, if we can break this I will move up stop some more to lock in profit.
Any thoughts? comments?...
Well done D
Just be careful now were at the 155, which is a clear PPZ area. This would be the area where I would be wanting to do something at personally. Price looks like its turning over overall, so I would be more bearish unless we can fully clear this 155 and it turn into support.
Any suggestions/advice either yourself or anyone else wouldn't mind sharing would be appreciated.
-G5
I will let Ryan answer for himself although I know what his answer is
I get this question all the time. Trade mgmt is the hardest thing to grasp. Everyone focuses on entries as we know then come the actual trade we fumble. Not to worry though this is where time and experience play the most crucial role. There are so many different ways to handle exits, that I am not going to list them all(not even possible). So instead I will answer in the most basic way I can regarding my own personal trading.
As for my actual taking profit. I never take partial profits. Period. I don't believe in it. That does NOT mean you can't. I just did the numbers for a large amount of live data on my old trades. The bottom line always comes up significantly worse for me.
I then determine the situation like so.
1. What timeframe am I on. If the timeframe is 4hr and under, I consider this intraday. What does this mean? It means I am looking for short short term moves, and I am not going to get fancy. If we stall out at the first important area, I rarely am going to take close to a full loss. I usually make a move at this first area. Now are their exceptions to this. Of course it is situational. If I beleive highly in the location(remember the price bar is nothing more then our trigger point), I will usually trail.
How do I trail?
I use a variety of trailing stops depending on the situation and I can and will change mid trade if I ever feel conditions change where one would be more beneficial. I also will close out the trade at any point I feel something has changed that warrants that. So the types of trails I use range from a volatility based indicator for breakouts with room to run, a mechanical 2bar and 1 bar trailing stop(using the previous high/low of X amount of bars). And as well just using pure s/r to hide my stops.
When do I trail?
Well mostly I trail out on the daily/weekly and breakout trades. The reason for this is firstly, a breakout trade signifies a breakout of consolidation or a market that is shrinking in its range. If I am correct in my analysis this leads to an expansion in volatility/range etc. So these trades i want to let run. They should run smooth and nice for the most part(think squeezing toothpaste out of the tube if you pressed your finger against it and then released with the pressure). Why on daily/weekly pure price action. Well simply b/c I tend to be highly picky and using the data as a longer term play. I take in the range of 3-5 trades a month, and tend to let these play out. Often I will trail but also have a set take profit if we get there. The idea again is to cut my losses and also lock in some profits.
So you are never going to nail every trade the best way. I almost always pick the wrong type of exit to maximize profits. But what I do well is understand each situation that I understand well enough to know what works over the course of a large amount of trades. So determining the type of situation is the most important.
Examples. A daily pin, in a good spot, but trading into a lot of traffic or consolidation. What is the play? For me it is a flat out take profit at the first spot.
Example 2. A pin in wide open space just hanging out there(remember picking an apple/cherry from my video). What is the play? For me it is to let the trade play out and the little minor areas don't scare me, I am watching the more major PPZs and round numbers etc.
Example 3. A 1hr pin off a nice round number. What is the play? Watching the first areas, understanding the bar is simply 1hr worth of data, and don't try to be a hero.
Example 4.. A 4hr pin off a key area I have been waiting to hit for a very long time. I believe these area warrants a longer term play. What is the play? Trade it with a trail, and be a little more lenient on stop movement but don't try to be a hero.
I could go on and on, since these are all general cases. This is the toughest question to answer in a general way that it is asked like above. Trading IMO is something one needs to be adaptable to each and every situation. Although we look for the same things we still must be headsy enough to understand the trade at hand.
Again million ways to skin a cat, but just thought I would share in a broad sense how I tackle it
That technically isn't a pin since the open and close need to be within the prior bar. Some would say it is a pin by proxy, but I never trade proxy pins so I will let those come in here.
Hope all is well for you over there and staying safe
Thank you for taking the time to post this. It is valious information.
What about entries? Do you enter all at once or do you enter with partial size of you total position and then add at retraces after your first position is confirmed correct?
Thank you in advance,
Luso
Hey Luso
I like to keep things simple, I enter my full position all at once and I never play retrace entries. I also always put my stop on the other side of the bar. Again, like exits, you can do it a bunch of ways, but I believe in consistency whichever way one wants to go.
so is the drama from over the weekend finally over? i took the long weekend off & then it took me all day today to get through that mess. bottom-line: this is james' thread & thats how i want it to be. so can we now get back to the james16 "chart" thread? good. so mike? why not play retrace entries? many times price will break our level a little, retrace back a bit, & then break hard right back thru it. but each scenario is a case-by-case basis.
also, has anyone ever done any back-testing to see what overall results one gets when they play a pa...
The honest answer is cause I know what I am good at and what I am comfortable with. I really am not trying to be something I am not. I know the way I do it works for me and it helps me be Consistent, and comfortable with what I do. Nothing wrong with what you said as long as you put it through the tests to get it to the point where it works for you. I just do what I know works for me.
Would this qualify as a good daily pin bar on GBPAUD?
This would be a pinbar in heavy traffic yeah. You have a nice clean chart though for where it will probably have trouble(yesterdays high). These trades you have to get your stops up quick sine this is trading in such a sideways market
UNLV,
I don't want to sound rash or mean here... please take this as kind words of advice from what I've learned....
This is the point I was going to make. This is trying to curve fit your situation to meet YOUR needs. You have to either avoid the situation or take it and take what the market gives you. Your stop loss should be determined first. For me it is real simple. Pinbar stop below, trade mgmt. I don't say well if it goes from here to here I get 1:1 let me move my stop up. The stop is used based on the logic that a pinbar is valid till the low is taken out. ALWAYS be logical and SIMPLE.
Man, I wish they would require 25k to enter forex, it would take out a lot of the $500 1/2 ass traders in this market and clean the forums up and maybe then people would try harder or at least be a little smarter.
I still remember when I got involved it was 50k minimum and standard lots. The entrance of the more "retail" side makes position granularity AWESOME for compounding though
I disagree, but I appreciate your kind words and the time you devoted to me to type them.
The reason I disagree, is I read this thread nonstop....
OK so just caught up. If you tested out that you want your stop below the left eye and it works, then you take your loss and move on. No biggie. I personally didn't see much confluence there and that plus a small bar and us moving down quite strong on the 4hr would keep me out of that trade. I personally post losses all the time, you are right trading is damn hard and easy at the same time. It's hard until you see the lights all come on and then you say "damn that was so much easier then I was making it out to be". Of course the journey there can be a difficult one and usually is for most of us.
You also are correct there is much more to this then entries, I don't think that was ever disguised. I made a recent post about trade mgmt for those that are interested, search my name
I did the S&P FULL contract, I think it was $500 a point lol, e-mini was later on @ 50$ a point if I remember correctly
The funniest thing is reading all the books from not even that long ago. That try to teach you how to MM around this problem. Cause a few ticks is a boat load of money on a 50k account. I prefer the playing field the way it is now
I know some hate when I am so picky but hey that is me lol. Technically this isn't a pin b/c the close is under the previous bars low by a few pips. That is what makes me nervous about all these close to pins. There isn't a ton of confluence to get me excited that this wasn't just a pause before another fall(think falling knife). Now the size is pretty good but that one little aspect makes me nervous. If that left eye doesn't hold this thing could just keep tumbling.
I Appreciate Your Perspective Mike ... I've Token This Trade Because Of The Size Of The Nose ... It's Rate To The Other Side Of The Candle , Is About 5. Anyway, I Waited For A Little Retrace (Because Of Asia Session) And I Will Trail I Closely ... Do You Suggest Any TP If It Goes North ? I Like 130.8x
Regards,
Basber
If it does get legs under it, just shy of 130 would be the first trouble area I would look into
Hi Mike, i was just wondering if you could explain the importance of the left eye price/level. i often see price make that perfect right eye,i.e. the same price, but the price doent seem to hold any value appart from it being the left eye price?? hope this makes sense to you
cheers
jon
Hey Jon
That is exactly the observation I was trying to share. Now granted this isn't every pin, but just in these types of falling down scenario with little to no confluence on the rebounding pin. Basically what happens is that floor being the left eye is so far up on the pin itself, so if that level can't hold there is really no support to prop it up very good. Your observation is basically the same as I was getting at. Now if this pin had a much higher close then it would have a stronger and different look. But when I see closes that just miss the body, or barely(and not within the body of the previous bar also), it is a heads up for me. I don't mess with these.
thanx Mike,(wow your fast!!)
so basically as i see it, the level of the eye/s is where the main body of orders kicked in to reverse the price, with the shadow representing the "overflow"( for want of a better word?) of the orders??this then makes the right eye price make sense( at least to me. lol)
or am i missing something?
cheers
jon
Well I wouldn't go that far with all of it personally but if it helps you recognize potential bad situations to reconsider then sure
It is simply something i have seen over and over, and know when to respect it. When you don't have anything to hold up these pins, and that left eye can't hold, it can be a rough ride , so I would rather wait to something I am more familiar with
Hey Mike. What does Price tell you when it smashes through a Big Round Number with S/R support. Like the Gbp/Jpy 150.00?
Price cut through that 150.00 like butter, without hesitation.
Tells me we are in for a big fall.
Yep can be a strong sign. I don't really like to formulate an opinion too much(gets in the way sometimes for me). But I will be watching for pullbacks like on your chart and shorts would be favored after moves like this. Like you said on the prior post about where the gbp/jpy 4hr pin is likely to go
But surely we can read something into the massive tails on GJ and EJ ?
yeah the great thing about trading is we can read whatever we want as individual. My job is to identify high probability setups. More then likely this will do as expected, at least to the 130 and 150 respectfully eur/j and gbp/j. But my experience of my methods tells me to be careful. There is not much confluence and that with the poor closes keeps me out. It isn't about being in every trade that pops up. It is being the good ones that fit our styles/methods. I can only share those experiences and the reality of what I actually do to make money.
Mike i LOVE posts like this...they keep reinforcing those details that can easily be forgoten (at least by me ) it is so easy to try and justify a trade setup once those $$$ signs light up!!
cheers
jon
Yeah I mean, at the end of the day we all trade our own variations to some degree. Just cause I pass a trade, and someone else takes it doesn't mean one is right or one is wrong no matter what the outcome is. I have come to know my style, my methods, what works for ME. I just try to pass that on as best as I can articulate and if someone takes a piece, great. If they hate it, no problem either I get it. This is why it is really hard to answer questions about trade setups. I can tell you what I ssay, what I would do, or what it is likely to do. Often time it can be the opposite of what someone might be hoping to hear :P
LOL ....It's hard not to say "I" a lot when posting here. If you don't, then you run the risk of sounding like you think your style is the "Be All and End All" of all trading styles.
We all do the same here mate. ...And I hate saying "I" a lot when talking too. lol
yes it is lol. I can ONLY speak for myself, and will only speak for myself. Anyone who thinks their way is the only way is either not making a single pip, or just plain wacky :P
Mike would probably agree when I say... "Just not taking it because over time I know it degrades my overall results with the way 'I' trade"
lol I don't even think about it that far anymore. It becomes so routine as I know you can relate. Hopefully now we see price action around these areas we are approaching. This is when my lips begin to salivate, b/c we enter in my territory
Trading is waiting and waiting, and then taking advantage of the situation when it finally does meet your criteria. The rest I could care less about.
I still remember the days. "OMG what a big move I just missed, oh well this has to be the end, I am in." "ah shit should have waited."
Hello everyone, I've been lurking around for a few months trying to learn PA as you guys all teach it. It's amazing how much information is in this thread and I'd like to thank James16 and all the senior members for their knowledge and helpful hand.
I havn't gone through the whole thread yet, but I must have read the first 150 pages at least 3 times. I couldn't find anything on a IPB, so I just have a quick question, what does IPB stand for? I'm taking a stab at it and saying inside? inverted? pin bar?
Thank you,
Ghetto
Hey Ghetto Welcome
This is not an actual James16 bar, I think this is ghous' thing he has been playing with. I believe it is inside pinbar, or inverted pin maybe yeah
I was thinking about somethings that that Bob fellow and Ryan said the other day about trend trading....
My favorite trades are with the trend, just not in as much traffic as you talked about here. It can make the ride bumpy even to a final target which can be hard on the old brain
Material can be interpreted whichever way YOU find comfortable. The question is how will you manage this trade once in it. That is the key.
I feel like an idiot... if i read back a few posts he talked about it 2 days ago .... lol Funny thing is, I read up on all the posts until friday July 3rd. But we had a black out from mon until last night, so i skipped the last 3 days of posts. Ok.... back to reading... thanks again =)
it's a task in itself to keep up with new posts. My hats off to you new guys/gals who have to tackle this thread from post 1. It has gotten much larger since back in the day. But it is still worth it
I had a thought - can you have Jim temporarily banned?? First, it would force him to chill out, second, his family would thanks us, and third, it shows we care...
I would have to call James and have him ban himself, I have no powers, only the power of persuasion :P
CiNBSeen: Dateline Friday July 10 2009.
With great trepidation we report that DOW Futures Trading has been ceased.
Possible causes of this range from Neuclear Weapon tests in the Far East or Consumer Lack of Confidence in Mid Europe.
However, This reporter has it on good authority that James took a Holiday.
Stay tuned to be first in the loop of when he returns.
What do you think about the CADCHF pair? Is it call an i11b setup?
How you guys will play this setup if you go for this? I think it should be long but don't know how to enter.
All comments are welcom
Hey Mama
Careful that bar has a higher high then the previous bar so it is no longer an inside bar. But in general the PPZ is above you so pressure is more to the downside till proven otherwise
AWESOME post , just awesome. STAY CONSISTENT is so big. I try to stress it in every post I make now. In fact I have tried to tie most my posts back to this .
Congrats on your progress
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188
Finally got consistent at taking 4hr trades and worked 4hr trading into my lifestyle....
I have NOT forgot about the fib video I said I would do for you guys. It is very difficult every time I get about ten minutes in I say man this sucks and is too confusing. I am trying to make it as clear and simple and basic, and then I find myself rambling. Give me a bit more time so the finished product is something I can be happy with. I am VERY hard on myself with these.
Just didn't want yall to think I forgot. I have sat here for the last hour scrapping videos and banging my head against the desk
seriously and I do this for all my videos, if you could see me at my desk. There are a lot of curse words abruptly in the video. And then I say man that sucks, and delete it. You guys would probably get a kick out of it but they get quickly deleted.
I am much better at the live webinars b/c it doesn't give me time to over think and I just talk.
do we get to see an "it'll be alright on the night" video of the out takes!??
hehe
im sure its gonna be worth the wait, so i for one can be patient.
jon
OMG i just LOLed. An outtakes video with the *beep* MOTHER*#@(*@# - *BEEP* so as you draw your fibs from swing high to *@#()@#)(@# **BEEP**
bouncing of longstanding PPZ (weekly and monthly charts showing this) - monthly has a low back in 1994!!!! is this even relevant?! LOL
with the trend...
Lets see how she closes but at the moment worth considering for a bullish turn I would say?
Fat Tom
Hey Tom
The key is you identified a great area to look for a potential trade, but don't jump the gun. Many many many times these areas don't give us good enough tip off and we have to watch price do its thing. Lots of time left in the day, and the good bars there will be "no doubt"
Anybody still in this BUOVB? Took it and got out at 72.44. Not really an A trade IMO but still had some good confluence and divergence, and it's a double bottom.
Hi,
Just want to shear this pair which i am looking for a while. Today forming nice PB as in attachment. What i have find there interesting is, resistance from April 2009 become as support and made nice PPZ. Also i find that down move lost the power exact at zis PPZ area, and today finally made nice PB, of course, the day is not over, but it is time to look closer to it.
So would be nice to hear from you, Thank you in advance!
Ed
Hey Ed
I would always prefer a close above a big round number like 8500 in this case. Which would lead way to the second blue box. But without that a likely first trouble area would be the first blue box.
O yes now i see that, some how miss this round nr. and area of first trouble area. So in this case this is not tradable pair as next resistance could be around 0.86, i am right?
I wanted to play it as brake of PB and first tp at 0.86. Now after your chart i understand that that is tradable but with lot of traffic on the way and that mean not A= trad would be
Thank you for explanation.
Ed
Well it could be tradeable both ways depending on the type of trader you are. I prefer always to see a close above those round numbers, otherwise I always feel like I am trading INTO the ppz, as opposed to away. So if price hits 8500 area and reverses I would not be surprised or caught off guard by the market. Just as if price closed above that number and then reversed near the second blue box I wouldn't be surprised either. Certainly not an A++ trade but depending on your style potentially for a quick profit/moved to b/e type trade
I has got a question about bullish/bearish outside bars. Please could you look at the attached chart. Am I being a little to sticky about it, or is there a generic rule?
Hey FOod
Yep this is a BUOB technically speaking. Some of us have different general rules for things like that. I always like to see a good close above the previous bars high. But actually technically speaking it doesn't even need to close above the previous bars high, as long as it has a higher high and a close near the upper portion of the bar. So trader to trader you will see variations
I've been using the J16 traditional method for about 7 months live now....
Hey Scott,
yes it makes sense and quite a few people do this. They figure if it retraces that far in the long run it is worth being stopped out to have that bigger position size. Again like you said it needs to be tested. A good idea would be to check out your old trades and redo them to see the differences.
Also congrats on your trading, sounds like you are doing just great so don't try to fix too much what isn't broke!
Simply Awesome. What a way to start the week hearing you guys/gals doing the right thing. I hope many of the newer traders to this thread catch a glimpse and take your words as example for their own trading.
Hey Mike: Just saying; Can I get your Read on j16 as it stands at this moment?
On Any Pair... {EurUsd, UsdJpy, EurGbp,UsdCad, EurJpy or whatever...}
Please.
This is not a ...Hunt...
Just a quest...
I see some stuff that I haven't read your comments on...{other than posts asking Q's}
Please {honestly; you know me. This is not a Hunt.}: I would appriciate You Take on various currencies Vs Usd.
ie: Europe or Northern Europe(Russian) Mid East & Far East.
Not to mention the Hakas in NZ & Aus.
Just a question.
Where is your favourite place,...
Not sure I know fully what you are asking. Right now I am currently flat or have all trades b/e at b/e.
Pairs like eur/usd are all too wound up for me to have any interest in until we can break out of that chop(usd/chf the mirror obviously). Gbp/usd I was short the daily beob from June 30, but my stop is at b/e now as 1.6 has held strong now, so don't want to get fancy there. I shorted the gbp/jpy early this am for a quick play.
We have some daily pins across pairs like eur/gbp where we can formulate likely targets, but the bars are too iffy for me to play outright(see eur/gbp, eur/adu gbp/chf).
Just curious what it is you find iffy about this bar?
I'm already in it, never very comfortable with bars breaking so early in the session.
Just curious as it seems like your kinda trade...great area, round number and nice shape pin....is it just not enough space for you?
It's close a bigger bar and I would have traded it for a (quick profit), due to the lack of space. Just doesn't quite get there for me. Yes all likelihood just shy of 7700 should be seen
Hey all, there looks to be a possible pin bar forming on the CADCHF Daily chart, check it out...
Hey Casey welcome to the thread. I think you are mistaken on the definition of a pinbar. That is just a bullish looking bar. Pinbars are reversal bars.
Check out some of the earlier posts and work your way through.
I just closed my two pin trades from yesterday and I am very happy with them (gbpchf +169, euraud +177 pips)...
I would like to ask you though, what are your opinions about it being too early. I know, it is my trade, but I am trying to learn something here for the future I marked my first resistance areas, which were TP for me, but I am thinking now, if I am not too "shy" here...
Do you think my resistance areas and fibs are drawn allright?
Both excellently played using the information. Don't let those demons creep up (greed) of wanting more. You had a plan and traded it. You should be very happy with that and proud you used the material in a very correct fashion.
A daunting task (on page 14 at the moment) however I feel I could potentially miss some golden nuggets if I skim or skip. I see some have read the thread multiple times which is an achievement in itself. I have trader for around a year but never really got anywhere, although using PASR I was all over the place, this thread is a godsend.
So I guess most of the regulars have read the entire thread?
Thanks
TAC
I think I hit double digits. But again it was about 1/4 of the size back then LOL
Yes it is very much worth it. At least until you get a pretty decent grasp. Then you will know whos posts to go to and it goes decently fast and you can skip a lot of the fluff that is bound to get into a public thread this size.
hey guys im looking at a chfjpy chart. i wish i could post it but it is in dealbok and i cant figure out how to save a picture of my screen like i can on mt4. the prob is my mt4 broker doesnt offer this pair....
Hey John
Here is a chart for ya, but nothing of the sorts as described above. Possibly just the different closing times, but let me know if you are confused about something.
Hello James16 Turtles!
Yesterday took two trades - EurAUD PB and EURCAD BEOVB. I have real micro account at Oanda, but for charting I use ODL. Confusing thing is that at morning I placed Limit Sell on EURAUD at Oanda based on ODL chart PB. Then I rescan Oanda charts and saw EURCAD - at Oanda there was nice BEOVB to play with, but at ODL - not even close. Same was with couple other currencies.
I know, that we should trade what we see, but... How it is in situation, where one broker have nice PA setup, but other closes are different (no PA setup...
Hey Initex
This is simply b/c the start time of the different brokers bar. So if they start at different times they will have different looks. For example Oanda new candle starts at midnight which is 7 hours later then my broker fxpro. Over the time of 7 hours much can happen to change the look. Again this is why location is the most important thing we do
Can anyone tell me why do these things (pinbar, BUOB, DLHC, etc.) work? The explanation may be posted before, but this is such a big big big thread. Please help!
Cheers!
Just another view for you. The reasons they actually occur are numerous depending on each situation.
Congrats on that, that is real good. As you grow your account and as a trader you are always looking for ways to minimize the drawdown. Most traders think in terms of "what is possible a week/month etc". I assure you when you become a trader you really don't look at your trading in terms of what can I make this month. You trade what the market offers. Be it 1% one month or 10% the next.
This isn't directly related to your question but I can see the thoughts for some others popping up some I am gonna re post this link
Returns are going to vary so widely b/w traders. This is do to account size differences, risk tolerance, etc. 20% a month sustainable is just not realistic, and those are the things that start to get people overly excited and giddy when playing with their spreadsheets. What should really get you giddy is play around with an avg of 2-5% a month as your account size INCREASES with both returns and say you add a little bit here and there when you can. For what its worth when I made that post I was up around 17% and now am up a little over 30% for the year. Some might shiver at this thinking jeez only 30%, I want that a month. But I just try to give the reality here. You will find other traders that I respect up double that I wouldn't doubt it. And vice versa those up half what I am with much larger accounts and smiling cheek to cheek. So you can see why it varies greatly so much. I am very conservative by nature and watch my drawdowns and risk per trade. So forget about goals, or what could be. When you learn to do what you are doing by trading right, the rest takes care of itself.
Sorry if I sound like Scrooge here ! :P
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by fat_tom
Well guys and Girls
Its a big day for me as I have finally got my account backup to what I deposited initially!!!
I have clawed back from a 18% drawdown in a month!!! - can't belive thats all I've been hanging around doing/learning things the J16 way!!! - seems like a lot longer
I got myself into the initial drawdown stage in less than a week!!! - I was on route to becoming another Forex statistic until I found myself here
Last 5 trades have all been profitable and 2 are still on the go!!
Good thread this, lot's of common sense trading taught here, take your time, wait until the A1 reversal trend pin comes right on previous support or resistance and WHAM, you're in, as you have traded from the trend extreme chances are you will beable to trade to to the otherside of the trend or if you get a warning bar (buob, beob, inside bar etc ) but so far I'm having incredible results, if I keep up the success rate I should be netting 40/50% a year trading weekly and Daily charts!...
That's terrific and welcome to the forums I see this is your first post. Hopefully you will post more here