Known Indicators -Bollinger Bands -Two Hour Slow_k -Linear Regression -Dove Alliance- As a general rule with the usd/jpy, between 15:30 and 16:00 ET there will be a 30 to 50 pip movement.... I don't know why but my guess is that the US is finishing up their trades for the day and going in to make profit. One thing they do not do is go against the movement of the trades.... If it is short they will run short.... if it is long they will run long..... Something for you to study. One of my indicators I use is a Linear Regression set on the right base and parameter running on the main chart. This LR is set up to make a crossing with one of my moving averages. When this happens a sweep begins and consolidation is taking place for a turn around. At this point I knew that any retraces that will occur during this turn around will only be to the support of 117.60…. And how did I know it was heading for the central pivot? The reason is because of the major support at the 117.60….. Any time the usd/jpy hits a major support or resistance it WILL return to where it came from provided it did not bust through. I use the 5 minute chart for my pivots.... if I was going short, two factors must be in place. One is my indicators is showing the sell on the 5 minute and the other is the one hour chart showing the sell. If the sell is there then I will enter the trade on the candle of the 5 minute that closes, either on the pivot or below the pivot. I then enter my stop and my limit to the pivot. Once you have enough confidence on using pivots you will learn how to enter before entering the support or resistance. When you come a cross a scenario as this -1 pip interval - means there is no power in the market. The traders that are in this market now are one such as you and I. There are no banks trading at this time. Without the banks, then no power to drive it. On longs, the retraces are touch and go. Some times they will hit and others it will keep going. It is on the short that retrace always takes place. If you have noticed on my trades I always enter at the central pivot and the reason for that is because the opportunity of getting out without a loss is more in your favor than getting in at any another entry point. If you can afford a wider stop I would do so...... 14 pip stop is just too small for the retraces and volatility. If you can afford 30 pips I would suggest using that..... If you had of, you still would be in the running. "Bollinger Bands" "What are the settings for the bollinger band that you use?" -My settings for the period is 15 "Interesting. Tell me if this is true. It seems as though when USDJPY pops the band..it heads for a retrace soon after." -That is 50 - 50 on the long and usually 95% of time on the short. "So you're saying when the bottom band is broken..it has a 95% chance of retrace. If it breaks the top band it has a 50%-50% chance of retrace? -The only time a retrace does not happen on the breaking of the bands is when it opens, which it happens on the settings I have, the candle will then hook on the band and take off for the next pivot...... I have a limit of 21 pips per trading session.... Now if I go over the 21 pips, which I always do, then it is gravy. But once I get those 21 pips I make sure I never get below it. This is something that all traders should project, is a limit for their session..... This will always keep you above water..... and in profit..... Never risk your limit. With this type of scenarios when you are mid stream on a trade in which you are not sure which way it is going and you are between two pivots. Then it is wise to do a full hedge because one way or the other you will make the profit. Usually the retrace off the pivot can take you close to your entry of the trade you are still in and able to close it if you need to. One thing to keep in mind is that the bouncing between the central and the daily happens only between these two pivots.... Once it breaks one or the other it will continue on to next pivot and when it arrives it will either bust it or spent the rest of the time on that pivot..... And that can last 12 hours or more. There is no more bouncing from there. I never leave my trade...I am always with it...I go for 20 pips per day with compounding...If the trade is good I will stay with it until my indicator says a retrace...After the retrace I am back in it...I never, never go against the trend...I plan for 7 pips profit on each entry, I never let my profit get below the 7 pip profit. Most of the time I'm taking out 25-30 pips per trade...Follow the trend and you will always be in profit. Set a limit and never let your trade go below it. No-matter what. One major pivot that is not there is called the central pivot point which is the open candle at 17:00 ET which has a very prospective indication of the trend for the day...In other words, where the central pivot and the daily come in will determine the trend. Once it hits the daily pivot at 119.30 it will then determine which way it will go. Your major play is between the daily and the central pivots. once the candles get in between these two pivot then you wait to see if it travels above the central or below.... if it travels above the central then it will have a mark of the first pivot.... may it be the daily or the R1.... visa vera for the short. I collected my 60 pips on top and one thing I never do is trade on retraces. I just wait for the turn around and get back in. Turn around hasn't happen yet but will very soon. Well traders, today is a perfect example of using pivots..... It was not going to break the 118.00 which means it was going to turn around and head for the daily pivot for 45 pips. It hit the pivot and then turned around for the central pivot...there are 17-20 pip profit between these two pivots. It turned around each time on these pivots 4 times while going side ways. And, it is turning around again. This is called consolidation for a new trend. As a general rule I do not trade between 17:00 and 20:00 unless I see it taking off..... The reason for this is because Tokyo does not come in until 20:00.... At that time Asia will decide which way they want to trade for the night. when it comes to the pivot, the candle must close to shut the door or else it could retrace back. For any trader is watching the 5 minute chart will notice that a candle had closed below the central pivot - 119.04 - which means that central pivot had now became a resistance and will travel to the next pivot which is the daily at the 118.74. This is how the pivots work and can always make profit. On the usd/jpy the pivots are pretty accurate One great thing about this Yen and the pivots..... It will hit mark no-matter what. Even if it had retrace back to the central pivot it still will come back to close the door. While I was in this trade I had the 118.00 in focus because it is also a resistance and support at the same time. When the candle got above the 118.00 and started its retrace I took profit. At that point the consolidation was still in play so I waited until this retrace finished which it did at the 117.62.... The next candle had opened again at the 117.69 and my LR was under that candle which means, to me, the consolidation was finished and I was back in again at the 117.69. From there I just let it rode to the top. One thing the usd/jpy is famous for is retraces back to the pivot. So always be on the look out for those retraces ...Don't be afraid of taking profit and then getting back in at the pivot again at the end of the retrace. I use the 5 minute chart for my pivots.... if I was going short, two factors must be in place. One is my indicators is showing the sell on the 5 minute and the other is the one hour chart showing the sell. if the sell is there then I will enter the trade on the candle of the 5 minute that closes, either on the pivot or below the pivot. I then enter my stop and my limit to the pivot. Once you have enough confidence on using pivots you will learn how to enter before entering the support or resistance. What you have been observing is a normal procedure for this pair. It had traveled the 50% pip movement between the two pivots, the central and the daily, then retrace back to 1 pip short of the central, made its turn for the destination it was on which is, the daily pivot. The one thing that will ruin a trader is the fear factor. You cannot fear the retrace or else you will continue to take small profits and never see the rainbow at the end. It is easy to say and I do know where your head is at because I have been there myself...... The one thing that had helped me the most was after I had placed my trade and set the stop and limit, I then tucked that platform to the bar and forget it and place all my concentration on the trade..... You will be surprise how well that works. When I pulled out on the retrace I had placed 20 pip profit in my account.... Now why would I jeopardize that profit by taking a chance on a retrace that may or may not give me 20 more pips..... So, I just wait for the end of the retrace and jump back in for another 20 or more pips. This way I keep the profit and it becomes a win win situation. The 117.60 is a very hard pivot that goes back along ways..... and so is the S1 117.93 but it breaks the S1 a lot easier than the 117.60.... If you draw a line with those two pivots and go back you will notice the random deviation with those pivots. Back in latter part November of 06 it spent weeks between those pivots. Back In March into April it it spent its time going up and down over those pivots. Couldn't make up it's mind which way it wanted to go because it was in consolidation and then finally went up. One thing I have mention a few times in the past is 50% retrace between pivots.... Right now it is roughly at the 50% mark. This is where you have to be aware of the retrace and generally the retrace is back to the pivot and then turns around for the trip the other way. So always be aware this retrace as you are planning your entry. The retrace is mostly between the central and the daily. after it gets pass either one then it is just a drive to the next. That is something else traders should learn about is Fibos. It is time consuming but also rewarding once you understand them.... I use pivots because fibos has a tendency to take me from focus...plus you need a good understanding of the MACD. Moving averages is what I use as indicators for trends and the turnarounds...But, they are not set at default. This had been your first experience out side the central and daily pivots..... 75% of the time when an R1 or S1 is hit - it will turn and make a trip to the opposite side of the field..... In other words...... This turn can take you all the way down to the S1.... Got the picture? One other thing the Yen has a reputation for and that is; when it hits the S1 and does not continue on, it then will turn around and head for the R1. One of the reasons I use a Bolling Band is because when a candle drives through a band, either the the upper or lower, there will be a 10-15 pip profit retrace plus, many times a turn around and this happens when at least 1/2 of the candle has gone through it... The only time this doesn't happen is when the candles or hooked on the band for a drive in the direction it is going..... If you keep focus on your indicators and not the candles you can scalp more pips then you can imagine.... But, this takes practice so be sure of yourself and your trades. Use a demo when you are attempting these various moves until you are sure of your indicators and your entries. There was one thing I notice on the traders that were scalping between the central pivots was knowing the actual turn around.... Right MA's with the correct parameters will help but mostly, a bollinger band set at 15...... Those candle will bounce between those bands..... Some thought that you might consider.