The Big Picture

Russia and China Vie for Central Asian Supremacy

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  • Despite their firm friendship, Russia and China are in quiet competition to increase their influence in energy-rich Central Asia.
  • Kazakhstan, the region's largest oil producer, has moved closer to China, but without jeopardizing its relationship with Moscow.
  • Russia could soon replace Turkmenistan as the largest supplier of pipeline gas to China, while the Chinese want the option to step up Turkmen imports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing this week highlights the strength of Russian-Chinese relations, based around a shared suspicion of the West, as well as booming Chinese imports of Russian oil and gas. Although their friendship appears unbreakable, tensions are bubbling below the surface that could impact the alliance in the coming months. One area of potential friction is over the role each country plays in Central Asia, a region Moscow still considers to be in its sphere of influence with close historical and linguistic ties, while China sees Central Asia as a key part of its Belt and Road Initiative and a magnet for Chinese investment across all sectors of the economy. Analysts see both countries keeping a lid on their regional rivalry and continuing to cooperate in areas like security and defense, all the while pursuing separate agendas.

Topics:
Trade, Resource Access, Sanctions, Gas Pipelines, Gas Supply, Gas Demand
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