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US Real Home Price Appreciation Aligns with Sustainable Price Trends
Fitch Ratings estimates national home prices were 11.1% overvalued for 4Q23 on a population-weighted average basis, showing negligible difference from the previous quarter. The consistency in Fitch’s overvaluation estimates, maintained from the last quarter, was underpinned by concurrent increases in the Home Price Index and Sustainable Home Price (SHP). The increase in SHP for 4Q23 was primarily driven by rise in rents. Meanwhile, other factors such as unemployment rates, mortgage rates, real income, and household growth remained comparatively stable, leading to a moderation in the SHP Index. However, ... (full story)